BAIN&COMPANY聯(lián)系方式：bruno.lannes@.聯(lián)系方式：weiwei.xing@.聯(lián)系方式：emma.gu@.本次報(bào)告的研究基礎(chǔ)包含次級(jí)市場(chǎng)研究、針對(duì)貝恩獲取的財(cái)務(wù)信息的分析研究和一系列行業(yè)參與者訪談。貝恩公司沒(méi)有對(duì)所獲取的財(cái)務(wù)信息進(jìn)行獨(dú)立驗(yàn)證，因此無(wú)法以明示或暗示的方式保證此類信息的準(zhǔn)確性或完整性。本次報(bào)告所含的市場(chǎng)和財(cái)務(wù)在貝恩公司看來(lái)，它們不應(yīng)當(dāng)被視為未來(lái)表現(xiàn)或結(jié)果的明確預(yù)測(cè)或保證。本次報(bào)告所包含的信息意圖。無(wú)論貝恩公司及其分公司、還是它們各自的主管、理事、股東、員工和代理機(jī)構(gòu)都不必為后果承擔(dān)任何責(zé)任。本次報(bào)告的版權(quán)由貝恩公司所有。任何個(gè)人或組織不得在沒(méi)有貝恩公司明確BAIN&COMPANY120%，基本跌回2020年的水平。隨著出境游的重啟，2024年作為拐點(diǎn)，標(biāo)志著奢侈品“疫情紅利期”BAIN&COMPANY220%中國(guó)內(nèi)地個(gè)人奢侈品市場(chǎng)銷售額(億元人民幣)5,0004,0003,0002,0000(-18%/-20%)資料來(lái)源:2024年貝恩-意大利奢侈品協(xié)會(huì)全球奢侈品報(bào)告;貝恩分析BAIN&COMPANY3中國(guó)內(nèi)地個(gè)人奢侈品市場(chǎng)同比增速,按品類劃分(%)5%–10%–(15)%–(25)%–(20)%–(20)%–(20)%–(30)%–(33)%2021–222022–232023–24E資料來(lái)源:2024年貝恩-意大利奢侈品協(xié)會(huì)全球奢侈品報(bào)告;公司財(cái)報(bào);貝恩分析BAIN&COMPANY4中國(guó)內(nèi)地個(gè)人奢侈品市場(chǎng)銷售額(億元人民幣)20181920海南離島免稅銷售額占整體市場(chǎng)比重:21–2222–2323–24E~(20)%~(19)%~(29)%資料來(lái)源:?？诤ｊP(guān);文獻(xiàn)研究;公司財(cái)報(bào);分析師報(bào)告;貝恩分析;財(cái)政部;商務(wù)部;文化和旅游部;海關(guān)總署;國(guó)家稅務(wù)總局BAIN&COMPANY5隨著出境游的復(fù)蘇，奢侈品消費(fèi)外流加劇，2024年約60%的奢侈品消費(fèi)發(fā)生在中國(guó)內(nèi)地，約40%的消費(fèi)則發(fā)的50%，而亞太地區(qū)則達(dá)到了約2019年水平的120%。中國(guó)消費(fèi)者奢侈品銷售額分布(按購(gòu)買地劃分,億歐元)4075720152019202120232024E40%注:1.境外指中國(guó)內(nèi)地以外的市場(chǎng),含中國(guó)港澳臺(tái)地區(qū)資料來(lái)源:2024年貝恩-意大利奢侈品協(xié)會(huì)全球奢侈品報(bào)告;GlobalBlue;貝恩分析BAIN&COMPANY62024年中國(guó)內(nèi)地和日本奢侈品價(jià)格差異22024年中國(guó)內(nèi)地和(退稅后價(jià)格,截至2024年12月;對(duì)應(yīng)2024年匯率區(qū)間,從最低到最高)注:1.在各品類領(lǐng)先品牌中選擇銷量最高的3個(gè)SKU;日本退稅率8.45%,法國(guó)退稅率12%;2.中國(guó)內(nèi)地/日本品牌官網(wǎng)價(jià)格截至2024年12月10日;日元對(duì)人民幣匯率取2024年最低和最高值,分別為1:0.045到1:0.050;3.中國(guó)內(nèi)地/法國(guó)品牌官網(wǎng)價(jià)格截至2024年12月10日;歐元對(duì)人民幣匯率取2024年最低和最高值,分別為1:7.498到1:7.962資料來(lái)源:中國(guó)官網(wǎng);法國(guó)官網(wǎng);日本官網(wǎng)BAIN&COMPANY740%，導(dǎo)致銷售額相比2023年下滑3%，達(dá)到600億元人民幣左右（圖6）。韓國(guó)免稅店遇冷主要?dú)w結(jié)于韓國(guó)離2019年存在著較大差距，無(wú)論是外國(guó)游客數(shù)量(2019-24E,萬(wàn)人)(-80%)201920202021202220232024E赴韓外國(guó)游客貢獻(xiàn)的免稅店銷售額(2019-24E,億元人民幣)201920202021202220232024E資料來(lái)源:韓國(guó)免稅店協(xié)會(huì);分析師報(bào)告;文獻(xiàn)研究;貝恩分析BAIN&COMPANY8例可以達(dá)到60%-70%甚至更多（圖7）。此外，根據(jù)Re-Hub的數(shù)據(jù)，2024年代購(gòu)平臺(tái)上暢銷產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格與(根據(jù)Re-Hub追蹤的數(shù)據(jù),僅限服飾和皮具箱包)注:1.部分追蹤品牌;2.GMV=商品成交額資料來(lái)源:Re-Hub60%–70%60%–70%>100%>100%BAIN&COMPANY9作，以發(fā)掘客戶的最大潛力。我們的戰(zhàn)略落地/變革管理?（ResultsDelivery?)流程協(xié)助客戶發(fā)展自身的能力，而我們的“真北”（TrueNorth）價(jià)值觀指導(dǎo)我們始終致力于為我們的客戶、員工和社會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)目標(biāo)。20世紀(jì)90年代初，貝恩公司進(jìn)入中國(guó)，是較早進(jìn)入中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的全球咨詢公司之一。目前在北京、上海和香港設(shè)有三個(gè)分公司，大中華區(qū)員工人數(shù)近400人。多年來(lái)，憑借對(duì)中國(guó)本地市場(chǎng)的了解和在全球其他地區(qū)積累的豐富經(jīng)驗(yàn)，我們持續(xù)為不同行業(yè)的跨國(guó)公司和中國(guó)本土企業(yè)提供咨詢服務(wù)，度身訂制企業(yè)策略和阿姆斯特丹·亞特蘭大·曼谷·北京·班加羅爾·波士頓·布魯塞爾·布宜諾斯艾利斯·芝加哥·哥本哈根·達(dá)拉斯·迪拜·杜塞爾多夫·法蘭克福赫爾辛基·香港·休斯頓·伊斯坦布爾·雅加達(dá)·約翰內(nèi)斯堡·吉隆坡·基輔·拉各斯·倫敦·洛杉磯·馬德里·墨爾本·墨西哥城·米蘭,莫斯科·孟買·慕尼黑·新德里·紐約·奧斯陸·帕洛阿爾托·巴黎·帕斯·里約熱內(nèi)盧·羅馬·圣弗朗西斯科·圣地亞哥·圣保羅·首爾上?！ば录悠隆に沟赂鐮柲Αはつ帷|京·多倫多·華沙·華盛頓·蘇黎世·利雅得·多哈NavigatingTurbulentWateBAIN&COMPANYAuthorsandacknowledgmentsBrunoLannesisaseniorpartnerinBain&Company’sConsumerProductsandRetailpracticesforGreaterChina,locatedinShanghai.Hecanbecontactedatbruno.lannes@.WeiweiXingisapartnerinBain&Company’sConsumerProductsandRetailpracticesforGreaterChina,locatedinHongKong.Shecanbecontactedatweiwei.xing@.EmmaGuisanassociatepartnerinBain&Company’sConsumerProductsandRetailpracticesforGreaterChina,locatedinShanghai.Shecanbecontactedatemma.gu@.TheauthorswouldliketoexpresstheirgratitudetoSijieHuang,aconsultantinBain’sShanghaioffice.Thisworkisbasedonsecondarymarketresearch,analysisoffinancialinformationavailableorprovidedtoBain&Companyandarangeofinterviewswithindustryparticipants.Bain&CompanyhasnotindependentlyverifiedanysuchinformationprovidedoravailabletoBainandmakesnorepresentationorwarranty,expressorimplied,thatsuchinformationisaccurateorcomplete.Projectedmarketandfinancialinformation,analysesandconclusionscontainedhereinarebasedontheinformationdescribedaboveandonBain&Company’sjudgment,andshouldnotbeconstruedasdefinitiveforecastsorguaranteesoffutureperformanceorresults.Theinformationandanalysishereindoesnotconstituteadviceofanykind,isnotintendedtobeusedforinvestmentpurposes,andneitherBain&Companynoranyofitssubsidiariesortheirrespectiveofficers,directors,shareholders,employeesoragentsacceptanyresponsibilityorliabilitywithrespecttotheuseoforrelianceonanyinformationoranalysiscontainedinthisdocument.ThisworkiscopyrightBain&Companyandmaynotbepublished,transmitted,broadcast,copied,reproducedorreprintedinwholeorinpartwithouttheexplicitwrittenpermissionofBain&Company.Copyright?2025Bain&Company,Inc.Allrightsreserved.BAIN&COMPANY12024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWatersIn2024,theChinesemainlandluxurymarketexperiencedasignificantdeclineof18%–20%,revertingto2020levelsduetolowconsumerconfidenceandincreasedoverseasspending.Inmanyways,thisdownturnmarkstheendoftheCovid-19artificialboostontheChinaluxurygoodsmarketasglobaltourismcontinuestorecover.Inthiscontext,allluxurycategorieshaveunderperformed,withbeautydoingbetterandwatchesandjewelryperformingworse.Asaresult,onlyaverysmallnumberofbrandsenjoyedgrowthinChinain2024.bHainanhasseenanimportantdeclineinbothtrafficandsaleswhileoverseasspendinghasincreased,withJapanbeingthebigwinner.Inaddition,Daigousaleshavealsoincreased(forthefashionandleathergoodscategories).2025isexpectedtobeflatinthemainlandmarket,withachallengingfirsthalfandanimprovingsecondhalf,drivenbythepositiveimpactofeconomicstimulusmeasuresinChina.Inthelongerterm,themarketisexpectedtorecoveratamoderatepace,drivenbythesolidfundamentalsofChina’seconomyandthegrowthofitsmiddleclass.BAIN&COMPANY22024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWatersChina’sluxurymarketfacedasignificantslowdownin2024,withdeterioratinggrowthastheyearprogressed.Thedownturnwasprimarilydrivenbyreduceddomesticspending,whichstemmedfromlowconsumerconfidence,andincreasedtouristspendingabroad,particularlyinJapanandEurope.Asthemacroeconomiclandscapecontinuestoevolve,theChinesemainlandluxurymarketisgoingthroughaphaseofuncertainty.Theresurgenceofoverseastourismisexpectedtoexertfur-therpressureondomesticluxurysalesinthecomingyears.Lookingaheadto2025andbeyond,challengesareanticipatedtopersist.However,luxurybrandsthatleveragethisperiodforintrospection,strategicrefocusingandcreativeinnovations,andopera-tionalresetaremorelikelytonavigatethroughtheseturbulenttimessuccessfullyandultimatelyre-newtheirgrowthtrajectory.Despitecurrentdifficulties,theChinesemainlandremainsanattractivemarketforluxurybrands,suggestingthatopportunitiesforrecoveryandgrowthstillexist.AftertheliftingofCovid-19restrictionsinDecember2022,therewasaninitialrecoveryinthefirsthalfof2023.However,thiswasnotsustainedduetosluggishconsumerconfidence,especiallyfordiscretionaryitemssuchasluxury.Therewasalsoasurgeinoverseasspendinginnearbymarketsin2023andevenmorein2024,drivenbyinternationaltourismrecoveryandfavorableexchangerates.Furthermore,today’sChineseconsumersarebecomingmorerationalaboutluxuryspending,showingreluctancetopurchaseamidfrequentpriceincreaseswithlimitedproductinnovationandpreferringexperienced-basedconsumption,suchastravelandoutdoor.Asaresult,theChinesemainlandluxurymarketisundersignificantpressure,withanestimatedyear-on-yeardeclineof18%–20%(seeFigure1).Theslowdownintensifiedthroughouttheyear,withthethirdquartershowingtheworstperformanceandaslightimprovementinthefourthquarter,mostlydrivenbyannouncementsoftheforthcomingstimulusmeasuresandtheirexpectedimpactonconsumption.Allluxurycategorieshavefacedchallenges,thoughtheirimpactvariesbycategory.Thebeautysector—particularlyperfumes,colorcosmetics,andultra-premiumskincare—hasdemonstratedstrongerresilienceasconsumersseekemotionalandsensoryexperiences(seeFigure2).BAIN&COMPANY32024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWatersFigure1:MainlandChinapersonalluxurymarketdeclinedby18%–20%in2024,drivenbylowconsumerconfidenceandincreasingoverseasshoppingMainlandChinapersonalluxurymarket(RM5004003002000(-18%/-20%)Sources:Bain-Altagamma2024WorldwideLuxuryMarketMonitor;BainanalysisFigure2:Allluxurycategoriesarefacingwidespreadchallenges,withjewelryandwatchesexperi-encingthemostsignificantnegativeimpactMainlandChinapersonalluxurymarketyear-over-yeargrowthbycategory5%–10%–(15)%–(25)%–(15)%–(25)%–(20)%–(20)%(25)%–(25)%–(30)%(28)%–(33)%2021–222022–232023–24EBAIN&COMPANY42024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWatersThefashionsegmenthasexperiencedasmallerdeclinecomparedtoleathergoods,largelyduetoitsseasonalnatureandtheimportanceofitsVeryImportantCustomer(VIC)demographic.Incontrast,leathergoodshavesufferedfromover-relianceoniconicpiecesandcarry-overswithlimitedinvestmentintoseasonalitemsandhigherunitprices,leavingconsumerswithlittleincentivetomakeadditionalpurchases.Thejewelryandwatchessegmenthasfacedthemostsignificantchallengesasconsumersareshiftingtheirpreferencestowardothervalue-preservingassetsandexperiences.Jewelryhasperformedslightlybetterthanwatches,primarilyduetoitswiderangeofproductsandpricepointsfromhighjewelrytofinejewelry,whichhashigherexposuretoaspirationalconsumers.Meanwhile,thewatchmarkethasseenmorerationalbehaviorsfromChineseconsumers,compoundedbyanongoingdeclineinsecondarymarketpricesforluxurySwisswatches,whichnegativelyimpactedthevalueretentionofhigh-endtimepieces.Hainan’sduty-freesalesdeclinedbyapproximately29%in2024,reflectingthebroaderconsumptionslowdowninChina(seeFigure3).Anapproximately15%year-on-yearreductionintrafficandapproximately15%decreaseinbasketvalueinfluencedthisdrop.Therecoveryofglobaltourism,particularlytonearbydestinationslikeJapanandSoutheastAsia,whichoffercomparabletraveltimesandcostsbutsuperiorservicesandexperiences,primarilydrovethedeclineintraffic.Additionally,theconsumerprofileisshifting;affluentconsumerswhoweresignificantspendersduringtheCovid-19pandemicinHainanarenowtravelingabroad.Intensecompetitionfromdomestice-commerceplatforms,especiallyinthebeautycategory,hasalsomadeHainanalessattractiveduty-freedestination.Lookingahead,uncertaintiesremainregardingHainan’sduty-freemarket.TheimplementationofkeypoliciesforachievingtheHainanFreeTradePortisexpectedtocontinueuntil2025;atthesametime,Hainanwillcompetewithothernewdowntownduty-freeshopsinthemainlandandnearbydestinationsandneedstoimprovetheoverallluxuryexperienceforitstravelers.BAIN&COMPANY52024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWatersFigure3:Duty-freesalesinHainanexperiencedaroughly29%declinein2024,drivenbyreducedtrafficandsmallerbasketvalueMainlandChinapersonalluxurymarket(RM20181920Hainanduty-freesalesasshareoftotalmarket:duty-free21–2222–2323–24E~(20)%~(19)%~(29)%Sources:HaikouCustom;Financialreports;Analystreports;MinistryofFinance;MinistryofCommerce;MinistryofCultureandTourism;GeneralAdministrationofCustoms;StateAdministrationofTaxation;Literatureresearch;BainanalysisTosummarize,China’sluxurymarketfacedasignificantdeclinein2024,affectingthevastmajorityofbrands.Thisdownturnisprimarilyattributedtolowconsumerconfidence,drivenbyconsumers’cautiousattitudetowardconsumptiongiventheeconomicuncertaintiestheyface.Interestingly,whileVICshavedemonstratedgreaterresilience,theyhavealsobecomemoreconservativeintheirluxuryspending,optingtodiversifytheirwealthacrossabroaderrangeofassetsduringthiseconomicdownturn.Amidthiswidespreaddecline,onlyafewbrandshaveemergedaswinners;thesebrandsarecharacterizedbyhighdesirability,strongconnectionwithconsumers,builtovermanyyearsofinvestmentanddifferentiatedvaluepropositions.Theirsuccessisnotdrivenbyscale,asweseesmallandlargebrandsamongthewinners.Aswelooktothefuture,brandsneedtoshifttheirmindsetsfromgrabbingtheirshareofincrementalmarketgrowththroughexpansiontocompetingformarketshareinamorestableandnormalizedenvironment.Tosucceedinthisnewera,elevateddifferentiationinbranding,productinnovation,pricingstrategies,andclientexperiencewillbecrucial.BAIN&COMPANY62024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWatersIn2024,therewasanotablereboundinoverseasshopping,particularlyinJapan,accompaniedbysignificantgrowthinthegreymarketduetoincreasingpricedisparities.AsChineseoverseastourismgraduallyresumed,itisestimatedthatapproximately60%ofChinesemainlandluxuryspendingoccurredwithintheChinesemainlandin2024.TherecoveryofluxuryspendingbyChinesetouristsinEuropeandAsiahasbeensignificant.Specifically,spendingabroadin2024reachedabout50%of2019levelsinEuropeandwasaround120%ofits2019levelinAsia-Pacific.TheexchangeratebetweentheChineseyuanandtheJapaneseyenhasfurtherstimulatedluxuryconsumptioninJapan.However,theincreaseinoverseasshoppingdidnotoffsetthedeclineinonshoresales,resultinginanoveralldecreaseofabout7%intotalChineseluxurygoodsspending(seeFigure4).Lookingahead,overseastravelandconsumptionareexpectedtocontinuetogrow.ThetrendofChinesetravelersshiftingtheirpreferencesfromshopping-focusedtourstoniche,flexible,andexperience-basedtripsisalsoanticipatedtoincreaseinthefuture.Figure4:Theriseinoverseaspurchaseswasnotenoughtooffsetthedeclineinthemainland;overall2024Chineseluxuryspendingdecreasedbyaround7%GeographicbreakdownforChineseluxurygoodsspending(Eurobillion)4020152019202120232024EOverseas140%Note:1.OverseasreferstomarketsoutsidemainlandChina,includingtheHongKong,Macau,andTaiwanregionsofChinaSources:Bain-Altagamma2023WorldwideLuxuryMarketMonitor;GlobalBlue;BainanalysisBAIN&COMPANY72024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWatersThepricingdisparitiesbetweenluxurygoodsontheChinesemainlandandothermarkets,particularlyJapan,disruptedthemainlandmarketandplayedacrucialroleintheresurgenceofoverseasluxuryshoppingin2024.AsampleanalysisofkeyproductsacrosstheChinesemainland,France,andJapanrevealedsignificantpricedifferencesacrossvariouscategories,makingluxuryshoppingabroadevenmoreappealing,especiallyunderfavorableexchangerates(seeFigure5).Attheyen’slowestpointversustheRMB,thepricegapcomparedtodomesticpricesreachedasmuchas30%.Thesewidepricegapshavefurtherencouragedoverseasshopping,particularlyamongprice-sensitiveconsumers,whichhasnegativelyimpactedbrandloyaltyandrecruitmentontheChinesemainland.Historically,inresponsetothistrend,somebrandshaveimplementedaglobalpricingstrategytooffsetmostoftheexchangeratefluctuations.Thisyear,otherbrandsaddressedthesepricedisparitiesbyimplementingpurchaselimitsinstoresandaligningnewproductpricesglobally(inthefourthquarter).Ensuringmorecontrolledglobalpricedifferenceandswiftreactivityshouldbeatoppriorityforluxuryleadershipteamsinthisturbulentmacroenvironment.Figure5:PricegapsbetweenChinaandJapan/Europewereakeydriverofoverseasshoppingin2024Chinavs.Japan20242Chinavs.France20243(Aftertaxrefund,asofDecember2024prices;rangefrom2024lowesttohighestexchangerate)-40%-30%-20%-10%JewelryJewelryWatchesWatchesNotes:1)ComparedtopthreeSKUsselectedforleadingbrandsineachcategory;tax-refundrateinJapanis8.45%;tax-refundrateinFranceis12%;2)ListedpricefromChina/JapanofficialwebsiteasofDecember10,2024.JPYtoCNYrangedfrom0.045to0.050,basedon2024highestandlowestexchangerate;3)ListedpricefromChina/FranceofficialwebsiteasofDecember10,2024.EurotoCNYrangedfrom7.498to7.962,basedon2024highestandlowestexchangerateSources:Chinaofficialwebsite;Franceofficialwebsite;JapanofficialwebsiteBAIN&COMPANY82024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWatersFor2024,despiteasignificantrecoveryof60%ininternationaltravelers,SouthKoreanduty-freesalesareprojectedtodeclineby3%versus2023,reachingapproximately60billionyuan,withanaveragebasketdroppingbyaround40%(seeFigure6).ThisdeclinecanbeattributedtoongoinggovernmentandbrandactionsagainstDaigoutrading,aswellasashiftintourismflowstowardJapanduetofavorableexchangerates.TheperformanceofSouthKoreanduty-freesalesisstillapproximately50%of2019,bothintermsofspendingandintermsofnumberoftravelers.ThedepreciationoftheSouthKoreanwonmayfurtherencourageChineseconsumerstoshopabroad,addingtothelong-termuncertaintysurroundingChina’soffshoreluxuryconsumption.Highin-ventorypressureonduty-freeretailerscouldleadtoincreasedpromotionsanddiscountsin2025.Figure6:Despitearecoveryininternationaltravelers,SouthKoreanduty-freesalesdidnotincreaseasgovernmentandbrandstookactionsagainstDaigouNumberofinternationaltravelersshoppinginSouthKoreadutyfree201920202021202220232024ESouthKoreaduty-freesalestointernationaltravelers(2019–24E,RMBbillion)201920202021202220232024EBAIN&COMPANY92024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWatersDaigouactivitiessignificantlycontributetoChineseconsumerspending.AccordingtobrandstrackedbyRe-Hub,theoverallgreymarketgrewbyapproximately5%in2024.However,priceindexesforJapanandFranceindicatethatthesemarketsarenotlikelytobetheprimarysourcesfortopitemssoldinthegreymarket.Favorableexchangerates,pricingdiscounts,promotionmechanisms,andsoonhavereignitedthepotentialforsmall-scaleDaigouoperationstoblossom.However,themainsourceofsupplyislikelyfromlarge-scaleorprofessionalDaigouwhobenefitfromsubstantialpricingadvantagesthroughwholesaledistributionchannels.Forfashionandleathergoodsbrandswithlimitedortightlycontrolledwholesalechannels,salesontheseplatformscanaccountfor15%–25%oftheirofficialsalesontheChinesemainland.Incontrast,forbrandswithlargerandlessregulatedwholesalechannels,platformsalescanrepresent60%–70%orevenmoreoftheirtotalsalesontheChinesemainland(seeFigure7).Notably,discountsforthetopproductstrackedbyRe-HubonDaigouplatformsdeepenedbyapproximatelyeightpercentagepointsin2024.ThistrendraisesconcernsthatthegreymarketwillcontinuetounderminerevenuepotentialandbrandequityontheChinesemainland.Tocounteractthistrend,brandsshouldprioritizeaddressingDaigouoperationsstrategicallyin2025andbeyond.TheChinesemainlandbusinessshouldnotbeviewedasanisolatedoperation;instead,itshouldcollaboratecloselywiththeglobalnetworktoactivelymanagerisksassociatedwithDaigou.Thiscanbeachievedbyoptimizingwholesaleoperationsworldwide;harmonizingpricegaps;andfocusingonenhancingcustomerrelationshipmanagement,aftersalesservices,andoverallclientexperienceontheChinesemainland.Figure7:InFashionandLeathergoodscategories,DaigousalesasashareofmainlandChinasaleshaveincreasedDaigouGMV1generatedasshareofbrands2officialrevenueinmainlandChinaonplatformstrackedbyRe-Hub(fashionandleathergoodsonly)60%–70%60%–70%>100%Notes:1)GMV=grossmerchaBAIN&COMPANY2024ChinaLuxuryGoodsMarket:NavigatingTurbulentWatersIn2024,China’sluxurymarketfailedtomaintainitspreviousgrowthtrajectory,experiencinganunexpectedandsharpdecelerationthatworsenedthroughouttheyear.Thedownturnwasprimarilydrivenbyalukewarmconsumerconfidencedrivenbyeconomicuncertaintyandadeclineinrealestatevalue,ashiftinspendingtowardoverseasmarkets,andcontinuouspriceincreasesbybrandswithoutwell-justifiedvaluepropositions.Themarketisexpectedtocontinueitsdownwardtrendthroughthefirsthalfof2025,withacautiouslyoptimisticoutlookemerginginthelatterhalfoftheyear,resultinginanoverallflattishperformanceforthewholeyear.Keyfactorsinfluencingtheoutlookincludestrongergovernmentstimuluspolicies,whichcouldprovidepositivesupport,andtheimpactofthenewUSadministrationtakingofficeinJanuary,potentiallyaffectingtheChineseeconomyandexports.Meanwhile,overseastravelandconsumptionareexpectedtogrowin2025.Asaresult,themarketisgoingthroughaneraofturbulenceanduncertaintywherewidespreadunderperformancemaybecomethenorm,withonlyafewbrandsemergingaswinners.Mostbrandswilllikelyneedtofocusonconsolidationandperformanceimprovementmeasuresinsteadofexpansionandpriceincreases.Inthischallengingenvironment,brandsshouldprioritizeenhancingbranddesirabilityanddeliveringgenuinevaluethroughinitiativessuchasbrand-buildingevents,creativity,productinnovation,andimprovedclientexperiencestoretainconsumersdomesticallyandcapturemarketsharefromcompetitors.Additionally,Chinashouldnotoperateinisolation;itshouldseekglobalcollaborationonpricingandDaigousourcing,especiallyonglobalwholesaleoperations.Lookingahead,China’smacroeconomicconditionsandstructuraldemographicshiftspresentbothchallengesandopportunitiesforbrandsoperatinginthecountry.Thegrowthoffutureluxurybuyers,particularlyamongGenZandyoungergenerations,isdeceleratingcomparedtopreviousyearsduetoreducedpurchasingpowerexacerbatedbyhighunemploymentrates.Thosewithpurchasingpowerarediversifyingtheirbrandpreferences,increasingtheirrepertoireofluxurybrands.VICs,whocontributesignificantlytoluxuryspending,remainresilient;however,theirpreferenceistrendingtowardsmoresubtleandunderstatedproductsduetoa