EQUITYRESEARCH|July8,2025|4:08PMEDT

2025GlobaleCommerceHandbook

FindingOpportunitiesinaMoreMatureEnvironment

EricSheridan

+1917343-8683

eric.sheridan@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

RonaldKeung,CFA

IrmaSgarz

PangVittayaamnuaykoon

EricCha

LisaYang

+8522978-0856

+1212357-3770

+656889-2470

+8223788-1799

+44207552-3713

ronald.keung@

irma.sgcom

pang.vit@

eric.cha@

lisa.yang@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

GoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch

GoldmanSachsBankEuropeSE-ParisBranch

RichardEdwards

+44207051-6016

richard.edwards@

GoldmanSachsInternational

ManishAdukia,CFA

+91226616-9049

manish.acom

GoldmanSachsIndiaSPL

RomanReshetnev

+9714376-3423

roman.reshetnev@

GoldmanSachsInternational

PierreRiopel

+1212934-4505

pierre.riopel@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

RathRaja

+1212357-9917

rath.raja@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthe?rmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshould

considerthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandother

importantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USa代liatesarenotregistered/quali?edasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.

TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.

8July2025|4:08PMEDT

GlobalTechnology:Internet

2025GlobaleCommerceHandbook:FindingOpportunitiesinaMoreMatureEnvironment

WeintroducethethirdeditionoftheGoldmanSachsGlobaleCommerce

Handbookwhereweanalyzethekeytrendsanddebatesthatareimpacting

eCommercearoundtheworld.WeupdateourproprietaryGoldmanSachsGlobaleCommerceindustrymodel(availableonrequest)andforecastthatglobal

eCommercesaleswillgrowata+6%CAGRbetween2025and2030.

KeyTakeaways

n1)$4tnGlobaleCommerceOpportunity:+6%CAGR,ModestOnline

PenetrationGains.Weforecast+6%globaleCommercesalesgrowth

(2025-2030CAGR)re?ectingaworldwhereonlinechannelscontinuetooutpaceglobalGDPandtotalretailsales,butwithaslowerpaceofmigrationthan

before,aseCommercematures.Weseethehighestgrowthpotentialinregionswiththelowestonlinepenetrationrates(India,LatAm,ASEAN)andseetheFoodandBeveragecategoryasasigni?cantdriverofeCommercegrowth.

n2)MacroandTariffsAreKeyRiskFactors.OurmacroteamsexpectrealGDPtoslowgloballyin2025,mostpronouncedintheUS,followedbyAsia.Tariffsand

thechangingglobaltradeenvironmentremainsourcesofuncertaintyandkeyriskfactorstoourindustryestimates.

n3)LowerValuationsRe?ectNewGrowthReality.GlobaleCommerce

valuationmultiplesarenowwellbelowtheirlong-termaverages(evenexcludingCOVIDpeaks)butthisprimarilyre?ectsthesector’sslowergrowthpro?le,as

growth-adjustedmultiplesremainatorabovehistoricalnorms.WealsorefreshourDCF-basedintrinsicvalueframeworkforGMV-basedplatforms.

GlobaleCommerceStockPicks

WecontinuetoseeeCommerceasanindustrywherescalemattersandexpectthatmarketsharewillcontinuetoconsolidatetowardsthelargestplatformsinourcoverage.WehighlightthefollowingBuy-ratedstocksassecularwinnersineCommerce:A(AMZN)intheUS,JD.com(JD)inChina,Coupang(CPNG)inKorea,SeaLtd.(SE)inASEAN,MercadoLibre(MELI)inLatAm,

Zalando(ZAL)inEurope,andEternal(ETEA)inIndia.

EricSheridan

+1(917)343-8683|

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

RonaldKeung,CFA

+852-2978-0856|

ronald.keung@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

IrmaSgarz

+1(212)357-3770|

irma.sgarz@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

PangVittayaamnuaykoon

+65-6889-2470|

pang.vit@

GoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte

EricCha

+82(2)3788-1799|

eric.cha@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch

LisaYang

+44(20)7552-3713|

lisa.yang@

GoldmanSachsBankEuropeSE-ParisBranch

RichardEdwards

+44(20)7051-6016|

richard.edwards@

GoldmanSachsInternational

ManishAdukia,CFA

+91(22)6616-9049|

GoldmanSachsIndiaSPL

RomanReshetnev

+971(4)376-3423|

roman.reshetnev@

GoldmanSachsInternational

PierreRiopel

+1(212)934-4505|

pierre.riopel@

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

RathRaja

+1(212)357-9917|

GoldmanSachs&Co.LLC

GoldmanSachsdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,

investorsshouldbeawarethatthe?rmmayhaveacon?ictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthis

report.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ForRegACcerti?cationandotherimportantdisclosures,seetheDisclosureAppendix,orgoto

/research/hedge.html.Analystsemployedbynon-USaf?liatesarenotregistered/quali?edasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheU.S.

GoldmanSachsGlobalTechnology:Internet

8July20252

TableofContents

GlobaleCommerceCoverage:RatingsandPriceTargets

3

Outliningthe$4tn+GlobaleCommerceOpportunity

4

OurOutlookfortheOnlineConsumerAcrosstheGlobe

9

FocusontheGlobalEconomicLandscape:WhatCouldHappentoeCommerceSalesinaDownturn?

44

ValuingeCommerce:TradingMultiplesandIntrinsicValueFrameworks

46

HistoricalContext:HowDideCommerceEvolveAcrosstheGlobe?

53

CompanyValuationsandKeyRisks

63

DisclosureAppendix

65

GoldmanSachsGlobalTechnology:Internet

8July20253

PreviousEditionsoftheGlobaleCommerceHandbook

GlobalTechnology:Internet2024GlobaleCommerceHandbook:FocusTurnstoNormalizedGrowthandCompetitiveIntensity

GlobalTechnology:Internet2023GlobaleCommerceHandbook:NavigatingtheSectorinaChangingEnvironment

GlobaleCommerceCoverage:RatingsandPriceTargets

Exhibit1:GlobaleCommerceCoverage:RatingsandPriceTargets

Ticker

Company

Rating

12-MonthPrice

Target

(LCL)

Current

Price

(LCL)

%Upside/

Downside

Enterprise

Value

($US)

Market

Capitalization

($US)

US

AMZN

Buy

$220

$223

(2%)

$2,424,698

$2,372,447

EBAY

Sell

$53

$76

(30%)

$36,883

$34,995

CHWY

cheny

Buy

$48

$41

17%

$16,950

$17,032

ETSY

Sell

$31

$54

(42%)

$7,116

$5,597

W

Neutral

$31

$55

(44%)

$9,843

$7,061

SHOP

Buy

$120

$117

3%

$146,976

$151,352

China

BABA

Buy

$159

$106

50%

$218,952

$237,665

PDD

JD

1024.HK

Buy

Buy

Buy

$131

$48

HK$68

$105

$32

HK$63

24%

50%

8%

$88,474

$35,678

$30,935

$146,168

$41,423

$34,513

Korea

CPNG

Buy

$36

$30

20%

$52,375

$54,468

035420.KS

Buy

W330,000

W256,000

29%

$26,259

$27,938

ASEAN

SE

Buy

$186

$151

23%

$76,603

$82,580

LatAm

MELI

MGLU3BHIA3

Buy

Neutral

Sell

$3,000

R$10.5

R$3.2

$2,501

R$9.1

R$3.6

20%

15%

(11%)

$127,129

$2,343

$2,126

$126,798

$1,230

$63

Europe

ZAL

Buy(onCL)

€47

€28

67%

$8,301

$8,566

ALEPASOSBOOH

NXGPY

Sell

Sell

Sell

Buy

PLN34

305p

23p

€140.0

PLN35

306p

20p

€121.6

(1%)

(0%)

15%

15%

$10,569

$1,142

$686

$21,510

$10,033

$498

$350

$19,330

India

FSNE

Neutral

Rs142

Rs202

(30%)

$6,801

$6,714

ETEA

Buy

Rs315

Rs259

22%

$28,486

$29,071

PricingasofJuly7,2025(FactSet)

Source:FactSet,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

8July20254

Outliningthe$4tn+GlobaleCommerceOpportunity

OurproprietaryGoldmanSachsGlobaleCommerceindustrymodel(availableonrequest)

aggregatesourbottom-upestimatesfrom8researchteamsacrosstheglobe,andcoversthefollowingregions:theUS,China,Korea,ASEAN,LatAm,Europe,India,Canada,Japan,and

Australasia.

WesizeglobaleCommercesalesat$4.3.tnin2024whichweexpecttogrow+8%YoYtoreach$4.7tnin2025.WemodelglobaleCommercesalesgrowingata+6%CAGRbetween2025and2030towards$6.4tnin2030,mostlydrivenbythegrowthinretailsales,andsupportedbyamodestincreaseinGlobaleCommercepenetrationratesasconsumerscontinuetoshifttheirspendingonline.WeexpectthatGlobal

eCommercepenetrationwillreach26%ofaddressableretailsales(whichexcludeauto,gasandrestaurantsales)in2030,upfromanestimated23%in2025.

Exhibit2:GlobaleCommerceSalesbyRegion(2025)

AddressableRetailSalesde?nedasTotalRetailSalesminusAutoandGas.

Source:USCensusBureau,ChinaNationalBureauofStatistics,Euromonitor,IBGE,MCC-ENET,KOSIS,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GoldmanSachsGlobalTechnology:Internet

8July20255

Exhibit3:ForecastGlobaleCommerceSalesGrowing+6%CAGR(2025-2030)

$bn,%

26%

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

$30,000

25%

23%

22%

$25,000

20%

$20,000

14%

$15,000

$10,000

$5.7tn

$6.4tn

$4.1tn

$3.3tn

$4.7tn

$2.2tn

$5,000

$0

GlobaleCommerceAddressableRetailSalesPenetration(%)

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Source:USCensusBureau,ChinaNationalBureauofStatistics,Euromonitor,IBGE,MCC-ENET,KOSIS,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit5:eCommercePenetrationVariesWidelybyRegion...eCommerceas%AddressableRetailSales(2025)

35%34%

24%

21%

18%

14%

9%

ChinaKoreaUSASEANEuropeLatAmIndiaGlobalGlobalex-China

PresentedastotaleCommercesalesas%ofAddressableRetailSaleswhichexcludeautoandgas.

Source:USCensusBureau,ChinaNationalBureauofStatistics,Euromonitor,IBGE,MCC-ENET,KOSIS,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit4:ForecastGlobalex-ChinaeCommerceSalesGrowing+7%CAGR(2025-2030)

$bn,%

22%

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

$20,000

21%

$18,000

19%

18%

$16,000

16%

$14,000

$12,000

11%

$10,000

$8,000

$4.0tn

$6,000

$2.8tn

$3.5tn

$2.4tn

$1.8tn

$4,000

$1.2tn

$2,000

$0

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Globalex-ChinaeCommerceAddressableRetailSalesPenetration(%)

Source:USCensusBureau,Euromonitor,IBGE,MCC-ENET,KOSIS,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit6:...andWeExpecttheLeastPenetratedRegionstoGrowtheFastest...

2025-2030CAGR

19%

11%

10%

6%6%

5%4%

IndiaLatAmASEANEuropeUSChinaKorea

GlobalGlobalex-China

Source:USCensusBureau,ChinaNationalBureauofStatistics,Euromonitor,IBGE,MCC-ENET,KOSIS,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GoldmanSachsGlobalTechnology:Internet

8July20256

Exhibit7:...butwithChinaandtheUSStillDrivingtheMajorityofGlobaleCommerceGrowth...

2025-2030

$1,800,000

$1,600,000

$1,400,000

$1,200,000

$1,000,000

$800,000

$600,000

$400,000

$200,000

$0

29%

27%

18%

7%7%7%

4%

●

1%

●

LatAmASEANOtherKorea

o%ofGlobalGrowth

GlobalChinaUSEuropeIndia口eCommerce$Growth(2025-2030)

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

“Other”includesAustralasia,Canada,andJapan

Source:USCensusBureau,ChinaNationalBureauofStatistics,Euromonitor,IBGE,MCC-ENET,KOSIS,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit8:...andwithGlobaleCommerceGrowthMoreBalancedBetweenKeyDrivers

%YoY

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

29%

16%

17%

13%

6%6%

8%7%6%6%6%6%

0%

AddressableRetailSalesGrowthGrowthFromIncreaseinOnlinePenetration

Source:USCensusBureau,ChinaNationalBureauofStatistics,Euromonitor,IBGE,MCC-ENET,KOSIS,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

IntroducingGlobalOnlineFoodandBeverageEstimates:RemainsKeyDriverofeCommerceGrowth

WeintroduceestimatesforglobaleCommerceFoodandBeverageandexpectthatthecategorywillremainakeydriverofoveralleCommercegrowthglobally.We

excludefoodservicesales(e.g.restaurantsanddrinkingplaces)fromtheseestimates.

WemodelglobaleCommercefoodandbeveragesalesgrowingata+10%CAGR

(2025-30)asthecategoryremainsearlyinitspenetrationcurveandcompaniesinvestinitsdigitization.Weestimatethatunder10%ofallfoodandbeveragesaleshappen

onlinetodaywhichremainsmuchlowerthan23%fortotaleCommercesalesglobally.

Weseetheonlinepenetrationoffoodandbeverageincreasingto11%in2030withthecategoryaccountingfor17%ofalleCommercesalesbythen(vs.14%today).

Exhibit9:FoodandBeverageIsaLargeCategoryThatIsUnderpenetratedbyeCommerce

$bn

Exhibit10:WeEstimateThatUnder10%ofGlobalFoodandBeverageSalesareHappeningOnline

%

$16,000

$14,000

$12,000

$10,000

$8,000

$6,000

$4,000

$2,000

$0

23%

9%

GlobalAddressable

Retail

GlobaleCommerceGlobalFoodandBeverageRetail

GlobalFoodand

Beverage

eCommerce

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

Sales(2025)OnlinePenetration(RHS)

0%

IndiaLatAmUSEuropeGlobalKoreaASEANChinaFoodandBeverageeCommerceCAGR:25-30

o2025FoodandBeverageOnlinePenetration

Source:Euromonitor,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:Euromonitor,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GoldmanSachsGlobalTechnology:Internet

8July20257

Exhibit11:WeExpectThatGlobaleCommerceFoodandBeverageSalesWillGrow+10%CAGRThrough2030...

$mm

Exhibit12:ExpectFoodandBeveragetoRemainaFast-GrowingeCommerceCategory...

CAGR%

$1,200,000

$1,000,000

$800,000

$600,000

$400,000

$200,000

$0

GlobalOnlineFoodGroceryeCommerceSales(GSe)%YoY

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

+18%

+16%

+14%

+12%

+10%

+8%

+6%

+4%

+2%

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

0%

AddressableRetailSaleseCommerceSales

+13%

+10%

+5%

+6%+6%

+4%

+4%

+4%

FoodandBeverage

eComm

CoreRetail

FoodandBeverage

CoreeComm

Retail

2020-2025CAGR2025-2030CAGR

Source:Euromonitor,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:Euromonitor,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit13:...andAccountforaGrowingPercentageofOveralleCommerceSales

$mm

$7,000,000

$6,000,000

$5,000,000

$4,000,000

$3,000,000

$2,000,000

$1,000,000

$0

+6%

+6%

17%

83%

+10%

+6%

+7%

5yrCAGR+13%

14%

86%

11%

89%

2020

eComm

FoodandCore2025EFoodandCore2030E

Beverage(Other)eCommBeverage(Other)eComm

FoodandBeverageeCommerceSales

CoreeCommerceSales(Non-FoodandBeverage)

Source:Euromonitor,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

MarketShare:ConcentratedIndustry,ExpectMoreMarketShareConsolidation

Globalex-China:Theglobalex-ChinaeCommercemarketisrelativelyconcentrated

aroundafewlargeplatforms,withalong-tailofsmallercompetitors.The5largest

pure-playeCommerceplatformsinourcoverageaccountedfor50%oftotalonlinesales

in2024:AMZNisthelargestplayerwitha31%marketshare,followedbySHOP(11%),SE(4%),EBAY(3%),andMELI(2%).Weexpectthattheglobalex-ChinaeCommercemarketwillcontinuetoconsolidateinthecomingyears,withthetop5platforms

reachingacombined55%marketsharein2027.

China:TheChineseeCommercemarketishighlyconcentratedandthe5largestplayersaccountforover90%oftotalsales.Asof2024,BABAremainsthelargestplayerwitha37%marketshare,followedbyPDD(22%),JD(19%),Douyin(14%),and

1024.HK/Kuaishou(4%).Inrecentyears,BABAsawthelargestshareloss,whilePDD

andDouyingainedthemostshare.Goingforward,weexpectthattheshareofthetop5ChineseeCommercecompanieswillremainabove>90%.

GoldmanSachsGlobalTechnology:Internet

8July20258

Exhibit14:Globalex-ChinaeCommerceMarketShare

%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

20182019202020212022202320242025E2026E2027E

AMZNSHOPEBAYSEMELI

Exhibitfeatures5largestpure-playeCommerceplatformsinourglobalcoverage.Expressedasa%ofaddressableeCommercesales

Source:USCensusBureau,Euromonitor,IBGE,MCC-ENET,KOSIS,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit15:ChinaeCommerceMarketShare

%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

2016201720182019202020212022202320242025E2026E2027EBABAPDDJDDouyinKuaishouothers

Companyestimatespresentednetofestimatedreturns.Seenotesonmethodologybelow

Source:ChinaNationalBureauofStatistics,Euromonitor,Companydata,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

NotesonMethodology:

n1)Companiescovered(eCommerceplatforms).Ouranalysisfocusesononline-?rsteCommerce

platformsandlargelyexcludestheonlinebusinessesoftraditionalof?ineretailerswhichcanrepresentamaterial(andoftengrowing)percentageofoveralleCommercesalesdependingontheregion.For

example,wedonotseparatelybreakoutWalmart’seCommercebusiness,whichisoneofthelargestonlineplatformsbytotalsalesintheUS.

n2)De?nitionofaddressableretailsales.WecalculateeCommercepenetrationasapercentageof“addressableretailsales”whichwede?neastotalretailsalesminusautosandgas.Webelievethatthisde?nitionbestalignswiththecategoriesthataredirectlyaddressablebymosteCommerce

platformstoday.Wealsode?ne“coreretailsales”astotalsalesminusautos,gasandfood,whichweviewasmoreappropriateforplatformsthatfocusondiscretionarycategories.

n3)PresentationofChinaestimates.WepresentourChinaeCommerceGMVindustryestimatesnetofonlinereturnstobetteralignwiththedatapublishedbytheChinaNationalBureauofStatistics.Wealsopresentcompany-levelGMVestimatesnetofreturnsforlistedChinaeCommerceplayers(incl.

BABA,JD,PDD).WenotethatonlinereturnrateshavebeenincreasinginChinathisyearasplatformsintroducemoreuser-friendlyreturn/paymentpoliciestoattractusers.

GoldmanSachsGlobalTechnology:Internet

8July20259

OurOutlookfortheOnlineConsumerAcrosstheGlobe

UnitedStates:ExpecteCommerceSalestoGrow+6%CAGRThrough2030

USeCommercesalesreachedalmost$1.2tnin2024,basedondatafromtheUSCensusBureau,andrepresented23%ofaddressableUSretailsales(upfrom22%in2023).

WeforecastthateCommercesaleswillapproach$1.7tnin2030(+6%CAGR)withonlinepenetrationincreasingby+70bpsperyearonaveragetowards27%in2030.

Our2025-2030USeCommercesalesCAGRof+6%assumesthatconsumerswillcontinuetoshifttowardsonlinechannels,butataslowerratethantheydidinprioryears,astheindustryisnowmoremature.Forcomparison,USeCommercewasgrowinginthe+mid-teens%pre-COVID.

Exhibit16:WeExpectUSeCommerceSalestoReach$1.7tnin2030...

$bn,%YoY

$1,800

$1,600

$1,400

$1,200

$1,000

$800

$600

$400

$200

$0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

USeCommerceSales%YoY

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

Source:USCensusBureau,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

Exhibit18:WeExpectContinuedIncreasesinOnlinePenetrationRates

%

27%

30%

23%21%

25%

20%

20%

16%15%

15%

10%

8%

5%

5%

0%

-o—%ofTotalRetailSales--%ofAddressableRetailSales

Source:CensusBureau,Euromonitor,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit17:...butwithSlowerGrowthasOnlinePenetrationGainsModerate

%

45%

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

42%

27%

23%

18%

6%

21%16%

8%

6%

13%

7%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

USeComm-%YoYGrowthUSeComm-%AddressableRetailSales

Source:USCensusBureau,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

Exhibit19:PenetrationVariesbyCategory,ExpectGradualIncreases

%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

-0-ApparelandFootwear--HealthandBeauty-0-ConsumerElectronics-0-HomeandAppliances-o-PetCareProducts-0-Grocery(FoodOnly)

Other

Source:Euromonitor,CensusBureau,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

GoldmanSachsGlobalTechnology:Internet

8July202510

WhatIsImpliedbyOurForecast?

nPaceofonlinemigration:WemodelUSeCommercesalesgrowingbyanaverageof~$90bn/yrthrough2030.Thisisslightlyhigherthan~$80bnin2024,signi?cantlyhigherthan~$60bn/yrpre-COVID(2019andprior)andmuchlowerthan

~$240bn/~$140bnin2020/2021.Asawaytoframeadownsidecasefor

eCommercegrowth,areturntothepre-COVIDcadenceof$60bn/yrwouldresultineCommercegrowingata+4%2025-2030CAGR,roughly-2ppslowerthanourbasecaseof+6%.

nIncrementalonlinepenetrationrate:AssumingthataddressableUSretailsalesgrowata+4%2025-2030CAGR,oureCommerceforecastsimplya~70bps/yr

averageincreaseinonlinepenetrationthrough2030.Thisisbelowthenearly

+90bpsincreaseseenin2024andsigni?cantlybelowpriorhistoricallevelsof

(~125bps/yrpre-COVIDand~500bpsin2020)asweexpectthathigherpenetrationlevelswillmakegainsmorechallenging.

Exhibit20:ForecastImplies$90bn/yrMigratingOnlineintheUS

$bn

Exhibit21:WeExpectaSlowerPaceofIncrementalOnlinePenetrationThanpre-COVID

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

$237

$138

Post-COVID

Pre-COVID

$90

$63$63

ChangeinOnlinePenetrationofAddressableRetailSales

$98

$98

$96

$92$74

$83

$70

$61

$59

700bps600bps500bps400bps300bps200bps100bps0bps

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

-100bps

503

Pre-COVID

Post-COVID

135

106

78

88

687076

126127

68

57

67

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025E

2026E

2027E

2028E

2029E

2030E

-12

Source:USCensusBureau,Euromonitor,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSource:USCensusBureau,Euromonitor,GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch

LookingAhead:KeyTrendsShapingUSeCommerce

1.AHealthybutSlowingUSConsumerin2025

TheUSconsumerremainsresilientandconsumerspendinghasheldupbetter

thanexpectedinrecentyears.DatacompiledbyourUSEconomicsteamin

Exhibit22

pointstotheUSconsumerbeingonsolidfooting,withspendingsupportedbyahealthyjobmarketandrobusthouseholdbalancesheets(acrosswealthanddebtmetrics).

OurEconomicsteamforecastsa30%12-monthUSrecessionprobabilityandnowexpects2025RealGDPgrowthof+1.6%YoY.Thelabormarketisalsoexpectedtocoolmodestly,withslowerpayrollgrowththrough2025andtheunemploymentratereaching4.5%byyear-end(vs.4.2%inMay).

Demandremainsstrongtodate-USeCommercesalesgrew+6%YoYinQ1’25andmostlargeeCommercecompaniesspoketoconsistentdemand.MostcompaniesexceededStreetexpectationsinQ1(acrossrevenueandpro?tability)andguidedto