CONTENTOverviewSupplyDemand010203概述供應(yīng)需求Risks:

Macroand

GeopoliticalEvents

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示：宏觀和地緣突發(fā)事件01Overview概述1.1

Overview

of

Natural

Rubber天然橡膠概述?

Naturalrubberisanelasticmaterialderivedfrom

latex,

amilky

fluidfoundincertaintrees,primarilytheHeveabrasiliensis

(rubber

tree).It'sapolymer

of

isopreneand

is

known

for

itselasticity,

hightensilestrength,and

ability

to

returntoitsoriginal

shape

after

beingstretched.?

Usually

when

we

talkabout

rubber,we

may

refer

to

eithernaturalrubberorsynthetic

rubber.

Despitetheyhavecommon

endmarkets,

in

thisreport,we

will

onlydiscuss

the

naturalone,which

comes

from

thetree.NaturalRubber天然橡膠?

Naturalrubberismainlyused

in

car

tires,aswell

asinvarious

materialssuch

as

airplanetires,base

isolationstructure

ofhighbuildings

andmedical

equipment.?

天然橡膠是一種彈性固狀物，也是一種異戊二烯的聚合物，以其彈性、高拉伸強(qiáng)度以及在拉伸后能夠恢復(fù)原狀的能力而聞名。其原料為膠水，是一種從橡膠樹(shù)上分泌而來(lái)的乳白色的液體。?

通常提到的橡膠，可能指的是天然橡膠或者合成橡膠。盡管二者有共同的下游市場(chǎng)，但本篇報(bào)告中僅探討天然橡膠。?

天然橡膠主要用于汽車輪胎，以及飛機(jī)輪胎、高層建筑基礎(chǔ)隔震結(jié)構(gòu)和醫(yī)療設(shè)備等各種材料。Sources：CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本報(bào)告非期貨交易咨詢業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)下服務(wù)，其中的觀點(diǎn)和信息僅作參考之用，不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議。我司不會(huì)因?yàn)殛P(guān)注、收到或閱讀本報(bào)告內(nèi)容而視相關(guān)人員為客戶；市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。41.2

Futures

Contract

Comparison期貨合約比較?Therearetwofutures

contracts

related

tonatural

rubberlisted

in

China:

thenatural

rubber

futures

(RU)on

SHFEandtheTSR20futures

(NR)on

INE.

Thebiggest

differencebetween

thetwo

liesintheirunderlying

products.?Theproduct

for

RUis

domestically

produced

natural

rubberin

China,

also

knownasSCRWF,

whiletheproduct

for

NRisTechnically

Specified

Rubber

#20

(TSR20),currently

certifiedin

major

producing

countries

such

asThailand,

Indonesia,and

Malaysia.Thesetwo

types

ofrubberare

collectivelyclassified

underthebroadcategory

ofnaturalrubber,differingonlyinproductionprocesses

andsomedownstream

applications.??在中國(guó)境內(nèi)上市的與天然橡膠相關(guān)的期貨合約有兩個(gè)：上海期貨交易所的天然橡膠期貨（RU），與上期能源中心的20號(hào)膠期貨（NR），兩者最大的區(qū)別在于其交割品。RU的交割品為中國(guó)國(guó)產(chǎn)天然橡膠，又稱全乳膠（SCRWF），NR的交割品為符合標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的20號(hào)膠（TSR20），當(dāng)前已經(jīng)得到認(rèn)證的主產(chǎn)國(guó)有泰國(guó)、印尼與馬來(lái)西亞。這兩種橡膠統(tǒng)稱天然橡膠大類，僅在制作工藝與部分下游使用上存在差異。Sources：SHFE,

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本報(bào)告非期貨交易咨詢業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)下服務(wù)，其中的觀點(diǎn)和信息僅作參考之用，不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議。我司不會(huì)因?yàn)殛P(guān)注、收到或閱讀本報(bào)告內(nèi)容而視相關(guān)人員為客戶；市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。51.3

The

PriceTrends

of

the

Two

Contract

Are

Generally

the

Same兩個(gè)品種合約的走勢(shì)大方向一致?

Althoughthe

products

ofRU

and

NR

are

different,

their

rawmaterials

arethe

same

from

aspot

market

perspective,so

theprice

trendsofthesetwo

contracts

aregenerally

consistent

most

of

thetime.?

However,

due

tothedifferences

indownstream,

theymay

occasionallyexhibit

pricedivergence.?

盡管RU和NR交割品不同，但從現(xiàn)貨的角度來(lái)看，上游原料是同一種。因此，RU和NR的價(jià)格走勢(shì)在大部分時(shí)間里是一致的。?

不過(guò)由于RU和NR交割品的下游領(lǐng)域存在差異，盤面偶爾會(huì)出現(xiàn)階段性的強(qiáng)弱分化。RUandNRPricesRU和NR的價(jià)格走勢(shì)SHFERUINENR2000018000160001400012000100008000Sources：Wind,

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本報(bào)告非期貨交易咨詢業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)下服務(wù)，其中的觀點(diǎn)和信息僅作參考之用，不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議。我司不會(huì)因?yàn)殛P(guān)注、收到或閱讀本報(bào)告內(nèi)容而視相關(guān)人員為客戶；市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。61.4

Natural

Rubber

Industry

Chain天然橡膠產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈Rubber

Tree

橡膠樹(shù)UpperstreamFieldLatex

膠水Cup

Lump

杯膠NaturalCoagulation自然凝固上游種植Concentrated

LatexLight-coloredUnsmoked

SheetsDark-colored濃縮膠乳Rubebr淺色標(biāo)膠(USS)白片Rubber深色標(biāo)膠MidstreamProcessing中游加工SCRWF全乳膠SVR3L越南3L膠TSR2020號(hào)膠STR20

MIX泰國(guó)20號(hào)混合膠Ripped

Smoke

Sheet(RSS)

煙片Downstream下游消費(fèi)Gloves,

Condons,

Ballons手套、安全套、氣球等Hose,

Tape,

Shoe

sole膠管、膠帶、鞋底等OTR

tires工程胎Export

Tires海外胎和出口胎Domestic

Tires國(guó)內(nèi)胎?

Golden

backgroundindicatesproductsforrubberfutures.

金色背景代表期貨交割品。Sources：CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本報(bào)告非期貨交易咨詢業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)下服務(wù)，其中的觀點(diǎn)和信息僅作參考之用，不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議。我司不會(huì)因?yàn)殛P(guān)注、收到或閱讀本報(bào)告內(nèi)容而視相關(guān)人員為客戶；市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。71.5

PricingMechanism

of

Natural

Rubber

Futures天然橡膠期貨定價(jià)機(jī)制Cross-FuturesArbitrage膠種間套利Planting

Area種植面積Supply橡膠供應(yīng)Harvested

Area割膠面積Inventory庫(kù)存Cross-MarketArbitrage內(nèi)外價(jià)差套利Long-term長(zhǎng)期Yield產(chǎn)量Age樹(shù)齡Other

DriversSpecificallyfromtheNon-DeliverableGradesArbitrage非標(biāo)套利Rubber

Price橡膠價(jià)格Futures

Market其他驅(qū)動(dòng)Weather天氣Basis

Trading基差交易TappingCost割膠成本Mid

toShort-termImport進(jìn)口量Demand橡膠需求Spread

Trading中短期Plant

Diseases病蟲(chóng)害月差交易DomesticDemand國(guó)內(nèi)需求OverseasDemand海外需求Import

Profit進(jìn)口利潤(rùn)Macroeconomics宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)Policies政策Construction建筑Transportation交通運(yùn)輸Sources：CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本報(bào)告非期貨交易咨詢業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)下服務(wù)，其中的觀點(diǎn)和信息僅作參考之用，不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議。我司不會(huì)因?yàn)殛P(guān)注、收到或閱讀本報(bào)告內(nèi)容而視相關(guān)人員為客戶；市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。81.6

Inventory

influences

Rubber

Price庫(kù)存影響橡膠價(jià)格?

Asthe

largestconsumer

of

naturalrubber,Chinaabsorbsalargeportionofthe

globalsupply.

Meanwhile,

domestic

traders'

arbitrageneedsmake

socialinventory

periodically

mismatch

demand,

therebyaffecting

rubberprices.?

中國(guó)作為天然橡膠最大的消費(fèi)國(guó)，承接了大量的供應(yīng)。疊加國(guó)內(nèi)貿(mào)易商存在套利需求，社會(huì)庫(kù)存會(huì)出現(xiàn)與需求階段性錯(cuò)配的情況，進(jìn)而影響到橡膠價(jià)格。China’s

NaturalRubberSocial

InventoryInventoryhasa

relativelysignificant

impact

on

prices中國(guó)天然橡膠社會(huì)庫(kù)存庫(kù)存對(duì)價(jià)格的影響相對(duì)顯著20212022202320242025SocialInventorySHFERUMetricTon180Yuan/Ton20000180160140120100801800016000140001200010000800016014012010080Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

DecSources：Wind,

OILCHEM,

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本報(bào)告非期貨交易咨詢業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)下服務(wù)，其中的觀點(diǎn)和信息僅作參考之用，不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議。我司不會(huì)因?yàn)殛P(guān)注、收到或閱讀本報(bào)告內(nèi)容而視相關(guān)人員為客戶；市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。902Supply供應(yīng)2.1

Global

Natural

Rubber

Supply

Landscape全球天然橡膠供應(yīng)格局?

Bythe

endof

year

2024，the

globaloutput

was

14.82milliontonaccording

toANRPC(AssociationofNaturalRubberProducingCountries),and

SoutheastAsiaaccounted

for

almost

75%,with

Thailand,

Indonesia

andVietnambeingTOP3

suppliers.Compared

to7

years

ago,supplyfrom

C?ted'Ivoireincreaseddramatically,

making

it

take

overVietnamtobecome

the

3rd-largestproducer

worldwide.?

截至2024年，根據(jù)ANRPC的數(shù)據(jù)，全球產(chǎn)量1482萬(wàn)噸，東南亞占據(jù)了全球接近75%的份額，泰國(guó)、印尼與越南位列地區(qū)前三。而與7年前相比，科特迪瓦的供應(yīng)量大幅增加，并已經(jīng)超過(guò)越南成為全球第三大生產(chǎn)國(guó)。GlobalNaturalRubber

Production

Distribution

by2024Trendsin

GlobalNaturalRubber

Production2024年全球天然橡膠產(chǎn)量分布全球天然橡膠產(chǎn)量變化趨勢(shì)Others11%Globalsupplyofnaturalrubber

(mt)Productiongrowthrate(%)Thailand32%C?ted'Ivoire12%1600140012001000800600400200012%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%Myanmar3%Cambodia3%India6%Indonesia15%China6%Malaysia3%Vietnam9%Sources：ANRPC,CITIC

FuturesThisreport

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trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

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reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本報(bào)告非期貨交易咨詢業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)下服務(wù)，其中的觀點(diǎn)和信息僅作參考之用，不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議。我司不會(huì)因?yàn)殛P(guān)注、收到或閱讀本報(bào)告內(nèi)容而視相關(guān)人員為客戶；市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。112.2

Growth

Patterns

of

Rubber

Tree橡膠樹(shù)生長(zhǎng)規(guī)律?

The

rubbertreehasalifecycle

of35-40

years.

Asingletreetypically

takessevenyears

after

plantingbefore

it

iscapableof

producingfieldlatex.Itsyield

increases

quickly

duringthe

7-20

year

period,and

finally,

its

outputcapacity

beginsto

declineafter

20years

ofage.?

Ifthe

yield

continuestorisefor

most

trees,

theresultingglutwill

putdownward

pressure

on

prices.Onthe

otherhand,since

rubbertrees

haveaseven-year

growthcycle,

ifagingtreesstarttodeclinein

productivitywithout

sufficientnewplantings,a

supplyshortagemay

leadtoabullishmarket.Andthisis

exactlythe

key

reason

why

themarket

hasbeen

speculatingon

rubberpricesinthese

two

years.YieldVariation

perRubber

TreeatDifferent

Ages不同樹(shù)齡膠樹(shù)單產(chǎn)變化4.54Yieldper

treeperyearinkilogram3.53?

天然橡膠樹(shù)生命周期長(zhǎng)達(dá)35-40年。單棵橡膠樹(shù)在種下后通常需要等待7年才會(huì)有產(chǎn)出膠水的能力，7-20年處于單產(chǎn)快速提高的階段，而到了20年后產(chǎn)出能力會(huì)開(kāi)始出現(xiàn)下滑。2.52?

如果大部分橡膠樹(shù)的單產(chǎn)均處于持續(xù)上升的階段，那么全球天然橡膠會(huì)出現(xiàn)供應(yīng)過(guò)剩，進(jìn)而對(duì)價(jià)格形成壓力。但另一方面，由于膠樹(shù)存在7年的生長(zhǎng)周期，這就意味著如果橡膠樹(shù)開(kāi)始老化并減產(chǎn)，并且沒(méi)有持續(xù)新增種植，那么將會(huì)在較長(zhǎng)時(shí)間內(nèi)供不應(yīng)求，進(jìn)而推動(dòng)價(jià)格持續(xù)上漲。而這也就是這兩年橡膠價(jià)格博弈的核心因素。1.510.50Age13579

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

27

29

31

33

35Sources：CITIC

FuturesThisreport

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consulting

business.

Theopinions

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CITIC

Futures

do

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relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

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report本報(bào)告非期貨交易咨詢業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)下服務(wù)，其中的觀點(diǎn)和信息僅作參考之用，不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議。我司不會(huì)因?yàn)殛P(guān)注、收到或閱讀本報(bào)告內(nèi)容而視相關(guān)人員為客戶；市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。122.3

Natural

Rubber

Supply

Pattern天然橡膠供應(yīng)規(guī)律?

Rubbertreeshavetheir

own

growthandproduction

rhythms.

Inmajor

rubber-producing

countriesin

Southeast

Asia,rubberproductionentersintohighproductionperiodstartinginJune

each

year

and

continues

throughout

the

second

halfofthe

year.?

橡膠樹(shù)有自己的生長(zhǎng)與產(chǎn)出節(jié)奏。東南亞主產(chǎn)國(guó)的橡膠產(chǎn)量在每年6月開(kāi)始進(jìn)入高峰期，并持續(xù)整個(gè)下半年。Seasonal

pattern

in

production

amongSoutheast

Asian

producing

countries東南亞主產(chǎn)國(guó)產(chǎn)出節(jié)奏Sources：CITIC

FuturesThisreport

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CITIC

Futures

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relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

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report本報(bào)告非期貨交易咨詢業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)下服務(wù)，其中的觀點(diǎn)和信息僅作參考之用，不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議。我司不會(huì)因?yàn)殛P(guān)注、收到或閱讀本報(bào)告內(nèi)容而視相關(guān)人員為客戶；市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。132.4

The

Impact

ofRubber

Price

onLong-term

Supply天然橡膠價(jià)格對(duì)長(zhǎng)周期供應(yīng)的影響?

Sincemost

rubbertrees

aregrownon

small

plantations,priceis

themain

factor

stimulatingtheexpansion

of

plantingareas

inthelongrunandthe

directcause

ofincreased

production.However,

with

plantingareas

continuingtoexpand,

productionwill

enteran

growth

cycle,

and

when

itfinallyexceeds

the

growthrateof

demand,

themarket

will

face

sustaineddownward

pricepressure..?

由于大部分橡膠樹(shù)的種植均以小莊園的形式出現(xiàn)，所以從長(zhǎng)周期來(lái)看，價(jià)格上漲是刺激種植面積增加的主要因素，也是導(dǎo)致產(chǎn)量增加的直接原因。當(dāng)種植面積持續(xù)擴(kuò)張，產(chǎn)量處于上升周期，并超過(guò)需求增速的時(shí)候，則會(huì)反過(guò)來(lái)對(duì)價(jià)格形成向下的壓力。Increasing

price

leadsto

increasing

planting

area價(jià)格上漲帶動(dòng)種植面積增加ClosingPrice(ActiveContract):NaturalRubberIncreasedPlantingArea50,00045,00040,00035,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,00007006005004003002001000Sources：Wind,

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

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under

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futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

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report本報(bào)告非期貨交易咨詢業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)下服務(wù)，其中的觀點(diǎn)和信息僅作參考之用，不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議。我司不會(huì)因?yàn)殛P(guān)注、收到或閱讀本報(bào)告內(nèi)容而視相關(guān)人員為客戶；市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。142.5

Short-term

Supply

DependsonWeather

andRubber

Tapping

Willingness短周期供應(yīng)波動(dòng)取決于天氣及割膠意愿?

Extremeweather,

especially

hightemperature

and

drought

broughtbyEl

Ni?o,caneasilyleadtoareduction

in

rubberproduction,but

thisimpact

ismore

evidentwithin

the

year.?

The

priceof

rawmaterials

for

naturalrubberdetermines

rubbertappingwillingness.

Duetothe

highsupplyelasticityofrubbertrees,

risingpricesusuallyencourage

tappersto

increaseproduction.?

極端天氣，尤其是厄爾尼諾帶來(lái)的高溫干旱比較容易造成橡膠減產(chǎn)，但影響更多是在年內(nèi)體現(xiàn)。?

橡膠原料價(jià)格決定了膠農(nóng)的割膠意愿。由于橡膠樹(shù)的供給彈性較大，高價(jià)通常能刺激膠農(nóng)積極性，進(jìn)一步提升橡膠產(chǎn)量。Higher

ONI

is

morelikely

incur

a

production

cutPrice

ofCup

Lumpin

HatYai,Thailand厄爾尼諾指數(shù)越高越容易出現(xiàn)減產(chǎn)泰國(guó)合艾杯膠價(jià)格ONIYoYchangeinproduction202120222023202420253.02.51210870605040302.01.561.040.520.00-0.5-1.0-1.5-2.0-2-4-6Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

DecSources：NOAA,

RAOT,CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本報(bào)告非期貨交易咨詢業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)下服務(wù)，其中的觀點(diǎn)和信息僅作參考之用，不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議。我司不會(huì)因?yàn)殛P(guān)注、收到或閱讀本報(bào)告內(nèi)容而視相關(guān)人員為客戶；市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。152.6

Imports

isthe

Primary

Sourceof

China

Rubber

Supply進(jìn)口是中國(guó)天然橡膠的主要?

Compared

totheannual

domestic

production

of800

metrictons,

China'saverageimport

volumeoverthepast

fiveyearshasbeen

closeto6milliontons,

indicatingahighdegree

ofimport

dependence.

The

top

threesources

ofimports

areThailand,Vietnam,

and

C?ted'Ivoire.China

Hasa

HighDegree

of

ImportDependence

for

NaturalRubber中國(guó)天然橡膠進(jìn)口依賴度較高DomesticProductionImport806040200?

與每年80萬(wàn)噸的本土產(chǎn)量相比，中國(guó)近五年進(jìn)口量平均接近600萬(wàn)噸，進(jìn)口依賴度較高。主要的進(jìn)口國(guó)前三位是泰國(guó)，越南以及科特迪瓦。China’s

NaturalRubberImportsNaturalRubber

ImportSources中國(guó)天然橡膠進(jìn)口量天然橡膠進(jìn)口國(guó)分布Others8%Myanmar7%202120222023202420257060504030C?ted'Ivoire7%Thailand39%Malyasia12%Indonesia3%Vietnam24%Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

DecSources：Wind,

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinionsandinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本報(bào)告非期貨交易咨詢業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)下服務(wù)，其中的觀點(diǎn)和信息僅作參考之用，不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議。我司不會(huì)因?yàn)殛P(guān)注、收到或閱讀本報(bào)告內(nèi)容而視相關(guān)人員為客戶；市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。1603Demand需求3.1

Global

Natural

Rubber

Demand

Landscape全球天然橡膠需求格局?

Bythe

endof

year

2024，the

globalnaturalrubberconsumption

was

15.36

llion

tonaccording

toANRPC,

with

Chinaaccountingfornearlyhalf

of

it.Othermajor

consuming

countries

includethe

U.S.,theUN,

India,and

severalAsiannations.

Interms

ofitsdownstreamstructure,

tiresaccount

for

70%of

theusage,

making

thedemand-side

analysis

primarilyfocused

onthe

tireand

automotive

industry.?

截至2024年，根據(jù)ANRPC的數(shù)據(jù)，全球天然橡膠消費(fèi)量1536萬(wàn)噸，中國(guó)幾乎占據(jù)了一半，其他主要消費(fèi)國(guó)包括美國(guó)、歐盟、印度以及亞洲多國(guó)。從消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)來(lái)看，輪胎的消耗占據(jù)了7成，因此對(duì)于需求端的考察重點(diǎn)為輪胎與汽車行業(yè)。GlobalNaturalRubber

Consumption

Distribution

by2024NaturalRubber

Downstreamstructure2024年全球天然橡膠消費(fèi)量分布天然橡膠下游消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)Others10%Others8%Vietnam2%Malaysia2%Latex

product10%Indonesia3%Thailand8%Shoesole5%China46%SouthKorea2%ConveyorBeltJapan4%7%India9%Tire70%UN8%US6%Sources：ANRPC,CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

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under

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futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

this

report本報(bào)告非期貨交易咨詢業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)下服務(wù)，其中的觀點(diǎn)和信息僅作參考之用，不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議。我司不會(huì)因?yàn)殛P(guān)注、收到或閱讀本報(bào)告內(nèi)容而視相關(guān)人員為客戶；市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。183.2

TBRConsumes

more

Natural

Rubber全鋼胎對(duì)天然橡膠消耗量更大Tire

Categories

andWeight輪胎種類及重量Tire

CategoriesEst.weight

(kg)range

per

tire輪胎種類單條輪胎重量范圍Passenger

Cars乘用車用6to15Light

toheavy

trucks輕卡與重卡用30

to80Aircrafts航空用100

to1301000

and

moreOff-the-road

（e.g.formining

trucks）非公路用Composition

ofPassenger/Light

Truck

Tire(PCR)Composition

ofTruckTire

(TBR)半鋼輪胎構(gòu)成全鋼輪胎構(gòu)成Antioxidantsandetc.15%NaturalRubber20%Antioxidantsand

etc.10%NaturalRubber35%Fillers24%Fillers24%SyntheticRubber25%SyntheticRubber10%Steel21%Textile4%Steel12%Sources:

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

under

the

futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

do

not

consider

relevant

personnel

as

clientdueto

the

attention,

receipt,

orreading

of

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report本報(bào)告非期貨交易咨詢業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)下服務(wù)，其中的觀點(diǎn)和信息僅作參考之用，不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議。我司不會(huì)因?yàn)殛P(guān)注、收到或閱讀本報(bào)告內(nèi)容而視相關(guān)人員為客戶；市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。193.3

Impact

ofChina’s

MacroFactors

onRubber

Demand中國(guó)宏觀因素對(duì)橡膠需求的影響?

Sinceheavytruck

istheprimaryapplicationscenario

for

TBR,

its

sales

serveasakey

indicatorfor

changes

in

naturalrubber

consumption.Giventhat

heavytrucks

are

mostly

used

inindustries

such

asrealestate,

infrastructure,

andtransportation,

China'smacroeconomic

factorssignificantlyinfluence

rubberprices.?

重卡作為全鋼胎的主要使用場(chǎng)景，其銷量是觀測(cè)天然橡膠消費(fèi)變化的重要因素。而由于重卡的使用場(chǎng)景多與房地產(chǎn)、基建、物流運(yùn)輸?shù)认嚓P(guān)，所以中國(guó)宏觀因素對(duì)橡膠的價(jià)格會(huì)產(chǎn)生較大的影響。HeavyTruckSales

inChinaGrowthOfHeavyTruckSalesAnd

NewConstruction

Areas中國(guó)重卡銷量重卡銷量增速較為依賴新開(kāi)工面積增速SalesOf

Heavy-dutyTrucks

InChina（RHS）20212022202320242025中國(guó):房屋新開(kāi)工面積:累計(jì)同比中國(guó):銷量:重卡:累計(jì)同比%80%China's

New

HousingConstruction1501005025201510560402000-20-40-60-50-1000Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

DecSources：Wind,

CITIC

FuturesThisreport

isnot

aservice

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futures

trading

consulting

business.

Theopinions

andinformation

provided

are

for

reference

only

and

donot

constituteinvestment

adviceto

anyone.

CITIC

Futures

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not

consider

relevant

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as

clientdueto

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report本報(bào)告非期貨交易咨詢業(yè)務(wù)項(xiàng)下服務(wù)，其中的觀點(diǎn)和信息僅作參考之用，不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何人的投資建議。我司不會(huì)因?yàn)殛P(guān)注、收到或閱讀本報(bào)告內(nèi)容而視相關(guān)人員為客戶；市場(chǎng)有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，投資需謹(jǐn)慎。203.4

Overall

Growth

ofGlobal

Tire

Industry

Supports

Rubber

Demand全球輪胎行業(yè)總體正增長(zhǎng)支撐天然橡膠需求?

Inadditiontobeingcategorizedby

application,

tirescan

alsobeclassifiedintooriginalequipment

tiresand

replacement

tires,with

replacementtiresaccounting

for

approximately

75%