TheProductLife-CycleTheoryTheproductlife-cyclemodeloftrade(PLC)(PCT)

ProductCycleTheoryWhy?

Consider:

“Themodel(PLC)claimsthatmanyproductsgothroughatradecycle,duringwhichtheUnitedStatesisinitiallyanexporter,thenlosesitsexportmarketsandmayfinallybecomeanimporteroftheproduct.”——LouisT.Wells,JR2OUTLINEBackgroundBriefIntroduction

StagesoftheProductCycleTradeImplicationsofProductCycle3IBackgroundFactorEndowmentTheoryassumedthat:sametechnologyinproduction;productionfunction(生產(chǎn)函數(shù));kindofproducts.)(eg:someadvancedcountries:shareverysimilargeneraleconomicconditions)Butinreality,thetechnologyeverycountryadopteddoesexistgap,and

thisgapisdynamicallychanging.Toexplainthecausesofinternationaltradeandtradepatternsbasedonthechangesintechnology,in1961,theU.S.economistM.V.PosnerproposedtheTechnologicalGapTheoryandgaveanexplanation.

4TechnologicalGapTheory(技術(shù)差距論)Trademaybecausedbytechnicalchangesanddevelopments.“Particulartechnicalchangesoriginateinonecountry,‘comparativecostdifferences’(比較成本差別)mayinducetradeinparticulargoodsduringthelapseoftimetakenfortherestoftheworldtoimitateonecountry’sinnovation.”——InternationalTradeandTechnicalChange

Ademandlag(需求時滯)

Aimitationlag(模仿時滯)Areactionlag(反應(yīng)時滯)Amasterylag(掌握時滯)

5IBackgroundTechnologicalGapModel6t0創(chuàng)新國生產(chǎn)和出口模仿國生產(chǎn)和出口T（時間）創(chuàng)新國生產(chǎn)創(chuàng)新國進口模仿國出口創(chuàng)新國出口模仿國進口t1t2t3需求時滯反應(yīng)時滯掌握時滯模仿時滯模仿國生產(chǎn)國際貿(mào)易旳可能

However…(why…taketheleadingposition)(howlong…imitationgap)

…BycombiningPLCinmarketingwithinternationaltradetheory…

Technologicaldevelopmentofanewproductgenerallyhasthreestages:newproductstage,thestageofmaturityandstandardization.7Then…8IIBriefIntroductionWorldtradeManufacturedproductsAproduct’slifeTechnologytransferFDI(ForeignDirectInvestment)Import&ExporttradeAdvancedcountries——RaymondVernon

ProductshavealimitedmarketlifePLCfourstages(Marketing)

locationofproductionshifts

dynamicdevelopmentofcomparativeAdvantageTheorybasedonTechnologicalGapTheory.9IIBriefIntroduction10IIIStagesoftheProductCycleStageI:TheNewProduct----Innovationhighlyskilledlabor;capitalforR&D;locationnon-standardized;highcost;monopolizeTechnology-intensiveNointernationaltradehappensStageII:TheMaturingProductStageIII:TheStandardizedProduct11IIIStagesoftheProductCycleStageI:TheNewProductStageII:TheMaturingProductIncreasinglystandardizedflexibilityindesign;manufacturingdeclines;competitorsdevelop;(pricesandprofitmargins)LosesmarketorinvestsabroadtradeandinvestmentareintertwinedCapital-intensive

StageIII:TheStandardizedProduct12IIIStagesoftheProductCycleStageI:TheNewProductStageII:TheMaturingProductStageIII:TheStandardizedProductCompletelystandardized;Technologyaccountsless(LDC)Profitmarginsarethin,andcompetitionisfierce.Labor-intensive(unskilled)13PLCModelNewProductMaturingProductStandardizedProductStagesofProductDevelopmentMore…ThePLChypothesisinanewinternationalenvironmenthasbeenchangingfortworeasons:geographicalreach(network’sspread)overseassubsidiaries(子企業(yè))nationalmarketsoftheadvancedindustrializedcountriesdifferencesreduce----RaymondVernon14A.TheproductisinitiallydesignedandmanufacturedintheU.S.B.Astheproductmovestothematuringproductstage,productionexpandstootheradvancedcountries.C.Thestandardizedproductionstageseesthecomparativeadvantageofproductionandexportshifttolessdevelopedcountries.15IVTradeImplicationsoftheProductCycle16

tot1t2t3t4t5ExportsImportsAmericaCanadaandEUDevelopingnationsCanadaandEUimportfromU.S.DevelopingnationsimportfromU.S.andCanadaandEUU.S.Importsfromothernations.TimePLCModel

(ManufacturedGoods)T1--T3--T4--T5--

Astheproductlifecyclestagechanges,thedeterminantsaffectingthecomparativeadvantage