版權(quán)說(shuō)明:本文檔由用戶提供并上傳,收益歸屬內(nèi)容提供方,若內(nèi)容存在侵權(quán),請(qǐng)進(jìn)行舉報(bào)或認(rèn)領(lǐng)
文檔簡(jiǎn)介
Morganstanley
RESEARCHFoundation
October28,202512:32AMGMT
InvestorPresentation|AsiaPacific
Globalvs.ChinaAI)Oldvs.NewMemoryandSPE
MorganStanley&Co.Internationalplc+
ShawnKim
EquityAnalyst
Shawn.Kim@
+44207677-1018
MorganStanleyTaiwanLimited+
CharlieChan
EquityAnalyst
Charlie.Chan@
+88622730-1725
MorganStanleyMUFGSecuritiesCo.,Ltd.+
TetsuyaWadaki
EquityAnalyst
Tetsuya.Wadaki@
+8136836-8890
MorganStanleyTaiwanLimited+
DanielYen,CFA
EquityAnalyst
Daniel.Yen@
+88622730-2863
MorganStanleyappreciatesyoursupportinthe2026Extel(ex-InstitutionalInvestor)
AsiaResearchSurvey.Votingopens12November2025.
S.KoreaTechnology
AsiaPacific
IndustryViewAttractive
MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswith
companiescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanley
Research.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanley
Researchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.
Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthis
report.
+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoFINRArestrictionson
communicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
2
HeadofAsiaandEuropeTechnologyResearch
ShawnKim
Memorystockpricesprecedeearningsupgrades
PBROE(%)ROE%(e)
2.330
2.125
1.920
1.715
1.510
1.35
1.10
0.9-5
0.7-10
0.5-152006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027
Source:FactSet,MorganStanleyResearch.Averageofthreememoryplayers(SamsungElec,MicronandHynix).
MorganStanleyResearch3
4
MemorystockP/Bvs.DRAMcontractgrowthYoY
160.0%
110.0%
60.0%
10.0%
(40.0%)
DRAMContractYoY(RHS)NTMPB-DRAM
2.3x
2.1x
1.9x
1.7x
1.5x
1.3x
1.1x
0.9x
0.7x
(90.0%)0.5x
Jan-16
Apr-16
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Jan-18
Apr-18
Jul-18
Oct-18
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
Jan-21
Apr-21
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jan-22
Apr-22
Jul-22
Oct-22
Jan-23
Apr-23
Jul-23
Oct-23
Jan-24
Apr-24
Jul-24
Oct-24
Jan-25
Apr-25
Jul-25
Oct-25
Jan-26
Source:Quantwise,MorganStanleyResearch.
MorganStanleyResearch5
JapanSemiconductorProductionEquipment
TetsuyaWadaki
6
SemiconductorProductionEquipment:F3/262QResultsPreview(22Oct2025)
nFlashmemorymarketrecoveringonshifttonearlinestorageSSDscausedbyHDDshortage.RecoveryforSPEdemandnotvisibleatthisstage.
nIncreasingmedium-termgrowthprospectsforHBM,butsomemakerscurbingnear-termback-endinvestmentduetolackoffront-endcapacity.
nForfront-endSPE,rolloverwithChineseDRAMinvestmentposesnear-termguidancerisk.UncertaintyonChinatraderegulationsweighingoninvestmentdecisions.
nFocusonback-endSPEmakers,whicharenotasaffectedbyChinatraderegulationsandgainmorefromgrowthinsmartphonemarketandadvancedpackagingdemand.
nDiscohaslowearningsriskfromregulationsonChina,withHBM,12-inchSiC,VCS,OSAT,NANDCBA,WMCM,andPLPdrivingearnings.
MorganStanleyResearch7
Etchingsystems
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Share(%)Worldwide($mn)
9799010305070911131517192123
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
CY24WWmarket$17.1bn
Hitachi-
AMEC
6%
NAURA
6%
Hightech2%
LamResearch
AMAT42%
17%
TokyoElectron24%
TotalMarketLamResearch,%TokyoElectron,%
AMAT,%◆Hitachi-Hightech,%
Source:Companydata,SEMI,MorganStanleyResearch
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
8
Maskinspectionequipment
Share(%)Worldwide($mn)
1002,500
802,000
601,500
401,000
20500
00
969800020406081012141618202224
TotalMarketKLA,%CarlZeiss,%Lasertec,%AMAT,%
Source:Companydata,SEMI,MorganStanleyResearch
CY24WWmarket$2.1bnCarlZeiss
6%AMAT
1%
KLA38%
Lasertec50%
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
MorganStanleyResearch9
SCREENHoldings(¥13,750):DowngradetoEWonRecentSharePriceGainsandLow
MemorySalesWeighting(21Oct2025)
nDowngradedfromOWtoEW.SharepricegainshavenarrowedthegapvsourPT.
nSCREEN’ssalesweightinginmemorywasalow14%inF3/25,anditstandstobenefitrelativelylittlevspeersfromthememorysupercycle.
nTheriskofdecliningsalestoChinaisincreasingduetothetighteningoftraderegulationsagainstChina.
nBasedonF3/26guidance,thecompany’sChinasalesweightingis40%,relativelyhighwithintheindustry,andintheshorttermweseeariskthatsaleswillnotexpandmuchtoChinese
DRAMmakers.
nOperatingratesonproductionlineshavebeenaround80%recently,fairlygoodcomparedwithotherfront-endprocessequipmentmakers.Managementaimstoincreasetheefficiencyof
productionlines.
organstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
10
ValuationMethodologyandRisks
SCREENHoldings(7735.T)
TargetP/Eis11.9x.SinceToshioHiroebecameCEOinMar2019,therehavebeennounex-pecteddownwardrevisions.WethinkthemarketIstrusthasbeenrestored,andapplyadis-countofjust15%tocorestockTokyoElectronIs14x.OurEPSforecastis¥1,332.2forbaseyearF3/28,whenweexpectthenextearningspeak.
RiskstoUpside
nStronger-than-expectedsmartphonedemandrecovery&semiconductordemand.
Manufacturersaccelerateequipmentinvestment,especiallyinadvancedlogic/foundry,andSCREENexpandsmarketshareinadvancedcleaningequipment
RiskstoDownside
nStagnantdemandforconsumerelectronicdevicesduetohighinflationandfoodprices,impactingsemiconductordemand.US-Chinatradetensionsrestrictequipmentexports.
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
MorganStanleyResearch11
DisclosureSection
TheinformationandopinionsinMorganStanleyResearchwerepreparedoraredisseminatedbyMorganStanleyAsiaLimited(whichacceptstheresponsibilityforitscontents)and/orMorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)Pte.(Registrationnumber199206298Z)and/orMorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)SecuritiesPteLtd(Registrationnumber200008434H),regulatedbytheMonetaryAuthorityofSingapore(whichacceptslegalresponsibilityforitscontentsandshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,MorganStanleyResearch),and/orMorganStanleyTaiwanLimitedand/orMorganStanley&CoInternationalplc,SeoulBranch,and/orMorganStanleyAustraliaLimited(A.B.N.67003734576,holderofAustralianfinancialserviceslicenseNo.233742,whichacceptsresponsibilityforitscontents),and/orMorganStanleyWealthManagementAustraliaPtyLtd(A.B.N.19009145555,holderofAustralianfinancialserviceslicenseNo.240813,whichacceptsresponsibilityforitscontents),and/orMorganStanleyIndiaCompanyPrivateLimitedhavingCorporateIdentificationNo(CIN)U22990MH1998PTC115305,regulatedbytheSecuritiesandExchangeBoardofIndia(“SEBI”)andholderoflicensesasaResearchAnalyst(SEBIRegistrationNo.INH000001105);StockBroker(SEBIStockBrokerRegistrationNo.INZ000244438),MerchantBanker(SEBIRegistrationNo.INM000011203),anddepositoryparticipantwithNationalSecuritiesDepositoryLimited(SEBIRegistrationNo.IN-DP-NSDL-567-2021)havingregisteredofficeatAltimus,Level39&40,PandurangBudhkarMarg,Worli,Mumbai400018,India;Telephoneno.+91-22-61181000;ComplianceOfficerDetails:Mr.TejarshiHardas,Tel.No.:+91-22-61181000orEmail:tejarshi.hardas@;Grievanceofficerdetails:Mr.TejarshiHardas,Tel.No.:+91-22-61181000orEmail:msic-compliance@whichacceptstheresponsibilityforitscontentsandshouldbecontactedwithrespecttoanymattersarisingfrom,orinconnectionwith,MorganStanleyResearch,andtheiraffiliates(collectively,"MorganStanley").MorganStanleyIndiaCompanyPrivateLimited(MSICPL)mayuseAItoolsinprovidingresearchservices.Allrecommendationscontainedhereinaremadebythedulyqualifiedresearchanalysts.
Forimportantdisclosures,stockpricechartsandequityratinghistoriesregardingcompaniesthatarethesubjectofthisreport,pleaseseetheMorganStanleyResearchDisclosureWebsiteat/researchdisclosures,orcontactyourinvestmentrepresentativeorMorganStanleyResearchat1585Broadway,(Attention:ResearchManagement),NewYork,NY,10036USA.
Forvaluationmethodologyandrisksassociatedwithanyrecommendation,ratingorpricetargetreferencedinthisresearchreport,pleasecontacttheClientSupportTeamasfollows:US/Canada+1800303-2495;HongKong+8522848-5999;LatinAmerica+1718754-5444(U.S.);London+44(0)20-7425-8169;Singapore+656834-6860;Sydney+61(0)2-9770-1505;Tokyo+81(0)3-6836-9000.AlternativelyyoumaycontactyourinvestmentrepresentativeorMorganStanleyResearchat1585Broadway,(Attention:ResearchManagement),NewYork,NY10036USA.
AnalystCertification
Thefollowinganalystsherebycertifythattheirviewsaboutthecompaniesandtheirsecuritiesdiscussedinthisreportareaccuratelyexpressedandthattheyhavenotreceivedandwillnotreceivedirectorindirectcompensationinexchangeforexpressingspecificrecommendationsorviewsinthisreport:CharlieChan;ShawnKim;TetsuyaWadaki;DanielYen,CFA.
.
GlobalResearchConflictManagementPolicy
MorganStanleyResearchhasbeenpublishedinaccordancewithourconflictmanagementpolicy,whichisavailableat
/institutional/research/conflictpolicies
.APortugueseversionofthepolicycanbefoundat
www.morgan
-.br
ImportantRegulatoryDisclosuresonSubjectCompanies
AsofSeptember30,2025,MorganStanleybeneficiallyowned1%ormoreofaclassofcommonequitysecuritiesofthefollowingcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch:FaduInc,IsuPetasysCo.Ltd.,L&FCoLtd,LeenoIndustrialInc.,LGDisplay,LGInnotek,SKhynix,WonikIPSCoLtd.
Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleymanagedorco-managedapublicoffering(or144Aoffering)ofsecuritiesofLGElectronics,SKhynix.
Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhasreceivedcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromSamsungSDI,SKhynix.
Inthenext3months,MorganStanleyexpectstoreceiveorintendstoseekcompensationforinvestmentbankingservicesfromEcoproBM,HDHyundaiElectricCoLtd,L&FCoLtd,LGDisplay,LGElectronics,SamsungElectronics,SamsungSDI,SCREENHoldings,SKhynix.
Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhasreceivedcompensationforproductsandservicesotherthaninvestmentbankingservicesfromSamsungSDI.
Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhasprovidedorisprovidinginvestmentbankingservicesto,orhasaninvestmentbankingclientrelationshipwith,thefollowingcompany:EcoproBM,HDHyundaiElectricCoLtd,L&FCoLtd,LGDisplay,LGElectronics,SamsungElectronics,SamsungSDI,SCREENHoldings,SKhynix.
Withinthelast12months,MorganStanleyhaseitherprovidedorisprovidingnon-investmentbanking,securities-relatedservicestoand/orinthepasthasenteredintoanagreementtoprovideservicesorhasaclientrelationshipwiththefollowingcompany:SamsungSDI.
TheequityresearchanalystsorstrategistsprincipallyresponsibleforthepreparationofMorganStanleyResearchhavereceivedcompensationbaseduponvariousfactors,includingqualityofresearch,investorclientfeedback,stockpicking,competitivefactors,firmrevenuesandoverallinvestmentbankingrevenues.EquityResearchanalysts'orstrategists'compensationisnotlinkedtoinvestmentbankingorcapitalmarketstransactionsperformedbyMorganStanleyortheprofitabilityorrevenuesofparticulartradingdesks.
MorganStanleyanditsaffiliatesdobusinessthatrelatestocompanies/instrumentscoveredinMorganStanleyResearch,includingmarketmaking,providingliquidity,fundmanagement,commercialbanking,extensionofcredit,investmentservicesandinvestmentbanking.MorganStanleysellstoandbuysfromcustomersthesecurities/instrumentsofcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearchonaprincipalbasis.MorganStanleymayhaveapositioninthedebtoftheCompanyorinstrumentsdiscussedinthisreport.MorganStanleytradesormaytradeasprincipalinthedebtsecurities(orinrelatedderivatives)thatarethesubjectofthedebtresearchreport.
Certaindisclosureslistedabovearealsoforcompliancewithapplicableregulationsinnon-USjurisdictions.
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
12
STOCKRATINGS
MorganStanleyusesarelativeratingsystemusingtermssuchasOverweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedorUnderweight(seedefinitionsbelow).MorganStanleydoesnotassignratingsofBuy,HoldorSelltothestockswecover.Overweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedandUnderweightarenottheequivalentofbuy,holdandsell.InvestorsshouldcarefullyreadthedefinitionsofallratingsusedinMorganStanleyResearch.Inaddition,sinceMorganStanleyResearchcontainsmorecompleteinformationconcerningtheanalyst'sviews,investorsshouldcarefullyreadMorganStanleyResearch,initsentirety,andnotinferthecontentsfromtheratingalone.Inanycase,ratings(orresearch)shouldnotbeusedorrelieduponasinvestmentadvice.Aninvestor'sdecisiontobuyorsellastockshoulddependonindividualcircumstances(suchastheinvestor'sexistingholdings)andotherconsiderations.
GlobalStockRatingsDistribution
(asofSeptember30,2025)
TheStockRatingsdescribedbelowapplytoMorganStanley'sFundamentalEquityResearchanddonotapplytoDebtResearchproducedbytheFirm.
Fordisclosurepurposesonly(inaccordancewithFINRArequirements),weincludethecategoryheadingsofBuy,Hold,andSellalongsideourratingsofOverweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedandUnderweight.MorganStanleydoesnotassignratingsofBuy,HoldorSelltothestockswecover.Overweight,Equal-weight,Not-RatedandUnderweightarenottheequivalentofbuy,hold,andsellbutrepresentrecommendedrelativeweightings(seedefinitionsbelow).Tosatisfyregulatoryrequirements,wecorrespondOverweight,ourmostpositivestockrating,withabuyrecommendation;wecorrespondEqual-weightandNot-RatedtoholdandUnderweighttosellrecommendations,respectively.
CoverageUniverseInvestmentBankingClients(IBC)OtherMaterialInvestmentServicesClients(MISC)
StockRatingCategoryCount%ofTotalCount%ofTotalIBC%ofRatingCategoryCount%ofTotalOtherMISC
Overweight/Buy149941%38946%26%70241%
Equal-weight/Hold161844%37544%23%78245%
Not-Rated/Hold40%10%25%10%
Underweight/Sell57716%8810%15%23414%
Total3,6988531719
DataincludecommonstockandADRscurrentlyassignedratings.InvestmentBankingClientsarecompaniesfromwhomMorganStanleyreceivedinvestmentbankingcompensationinthelast12months.Duetoroundingoffofdecimals,thepercentagesprovidedinthe"%oftotal"columnmaynotadduptoexactly100percent.
AnalystStockRatings
Overweight(O).Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtoexceedtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.
Equal-weight(E).Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtobeinlinewiththeaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.
Not-Rated(NR).Currentlytheanalystdoesnothaveadequateconvictionaboutthestock'stotalreturnrelativetotheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.Underweight(U).Thestock'stotalreturnisexpectedtobebelowtheaveragetotalreturnoftheanalyst'sindustry(orindustryteam's)coverageuniverse,onarisk-adjustedbasis,overthenext12-18months.
Unlessotherwisespecified,thetimeframeforpricetargetsincludedinMorganStanleyResearchis12to18months.
AnalystIndustryViews
Attractive(A):Theanalystexpectstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniverseoverthenext12-18monthstobeattractivevs.therelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.
In-Line(I):Theanalystexpectstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniverseoverthenext12-18monthstobeinlinewiththerelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.
Cautious(C):Theanalystviewstheperformanceofhisorherindustrycoverageuniverseoverthenext12-18monthswithcautionvs.therelevantbroadmarketbenchmark,asindicatedbelow.
Benchmarksforeachregionareasfollows:NorthAmerica-S&P500;LatinAmerica-relevantMSCIcountryindexorMSCILatinAmericaIndex;Europe-MSCIEurope;Japan-TOPIX;Asia-relevantMSCIcountryindexorMSCIsub-regionalindexorMSCIACAsiaPacificexJapanIndex.
StockPrice,PriceTargetandRatingHistory(SeeRatingDefinitions)
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
MorganStanleyResearch13
ImportantDisclosuresforMorganStanleySmithBarneyLLCCustomers
ImportantdisclosuresregardingtherelationshipbetweenthecompaniesthatarethesubjectofMorganStanleyResearchandMorganStanleySmithBarneyLLCorMorganStanleyoranyoftheiraffiliates)areavailableontheMorganStanleyWealth
Morganstanley
RESEARCH
Foundation
14
Managementdisclosurewebsiteat/online/researchdisclosures.ForMorganStanleyspecificdisclosures,youmayreferto
/researchdisclosures
.
EachMorganStanleyresearchreportisreviewedandapprovedonbehalfofMorganStanleySmithBarneyLLC.ThisreviewandapprovalisconductedbythesamepersonwhoreviewstheresearchreportonbehalfofMorganStanley.Thiscouldcreateaconflictofinterest.
OtherImportantDisclosures
MorganStanleyResearchpolicyistoupdateresearchreportsasandwhentheResearchAnalystandResearchManagementdeemappropriate,basedondevelopmentswiththeissuer,thesector,orthemarketthatmayhaveamaterialimpactontheresearchviewsoropinionsstatedtherein.Inaddition,certainResearchpublicationsareintendedtobeupdatedonaregularperiodicbasis(weekly/monthly/quarterly/annual)andwillordinarilybeupdatedwiththatfrequency,unlesstheResearchAnalystandResearchManagementdeterminethatadifferent
溫馨提示
- 1. 本站所有資源如無(wú)特殊說(shuō)明,都需要本地電腦安裝OFFICE2007和PDF閱讀器。圖紙軟件為CAD,CAXA,PROE,UG,SolidWorks等.壓縮文件請(qǐng)下載最新的WinRAR軟件解壓。
- 2. 本站的文檔不包含任何第三方提供的附件圖紙等,如果需要附件,請(qǐng)聯(lián)系上傳者。文件的所有權(quán)益歸上傳用戶所有。
- 3. 本站RAR壓縮包中若帶圖紙,網(wǎng)頁(yè)內(nèi)容里面會(huì)有圖紙預(yù)覽,若沒有圖紙預(yù)覽就沒有圖紙。
- 4. 未經(jīng)權(quán)益所有人同意不得將文件中的內(nèi)容挪作商業(yè)或盈利用途。
- 5. 人人文庫(kù)網(wǎng)僅提供信息存儲(chǔ)空間,僅對(duì)用戶上傳內(nèi)容的表現(xiàn)方式做保護(hù)處理,對(duì)用戶上傳分享的文檔內(nèi)容本身不做任何修改或編輯,并不能對(duì)任何下載內(nèi)容負(fù)責(zé)。
- 6. 下載文件中如有侵權(quán)或不適當(dāng)內(nèi)容,請(qǐng)與我們聯(lián)系,我們立即糾正。
- 7. 本站不保證下載資源的準(zhǔn)確性、安全性和完整性, 同時(shí)也不承擔(dān)用戶因使用這些下載資源對(duì)自己和他人造成任何形式的傷害或損失。
最新文檔
- 城中村兒童游樂設(shè)施建設(shè)方案
- 環(huán)保材料采購(gòu)與使用方案
- 市政工程造價(jià)控制方案
- 道路施工材料運(yùn)輸管理方案
- 建材采購(gòu)決策支持系統(tǒng)方案
- 2026年法律實(shí)務(wù)案例解析與練習(xí)
- 2026年現(xiàn)代城市交通規(guī)劃與管理策略題庫(kù)
- 2026年稅務(wù)籌劃師資格考核模擬題集
- 2026年國(guó)際貿(mào)易規(guī)則與實(shí)務(wù)考試模擬題庫(kù)
- 2026年法律常識(shí)題庫(kù)合同法要點(diǎn)及案例分析
- GB/T 45629.1-2025信息技術(shù)數(shù)據(jù)中心設(shè)備和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施第1部分:通用概念
- 2025年中考?xì)v史開卷考查范圍重大考點(diǎn)全突破(完整版)
- 學(xué)術(shù)誠(chéng)信與學(xué)術(shù)規(guī)范研究-深度研究
- 《ETF相關(guān)知識(shí)培訓(xùn)》課件
- (一模)烏魯木齊地區(qū)2025年高三年級(jí)第一次質(zhì)量英語(yǔ)試卷(含答案)
- 2025年云南省普洱市事業(yè)單位招聘考試(833人)高頻重點(diǎn)提升(共500題)附帶答案詳解
- DB15-T 3677-2024 大興安嶺林區(qū)白樺樹汁采集技術(shù)規(guī)程
- 2024年《13464電腦動(dòng)畫》自考復(fù)習(xí)題庫(kù)(含答案)
- 義務(wù)教育階段學(xué)生語(yǔ)文核心素養(yǎng)培養(yǎng)的思考與實(shí)踐
- 綜合利用1噸APT渣項(xiàng)目研究報(bào)告樣本
- JT-T 1495-2024 公路水運(yùn)危險(xiǎn)性較大工程專項(xiàng)施工方案編制審查規(guī)程
評(píng)論
0/150
提交評(píng)論