2024年9月24行業(yè)：計(jì)算機(jī)增持（維持）賽道分化，工業(yè)軟件、智能汽車和云計(jì)算高景氣—2024年計(jì)算機(jī)行業(yè)中報(bào)總結(jié)分析師：吳婷婷 編號(hào)：S0870523080001PAGE2PAGE2核心觀點(diǎn)2024H1及Q2業(yè)績(jī)回顧：收入穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)，成本控制持續(xù)截止2024年8月31日，計(jì)算機(jī)行業(yè)2024年中報(bào)披露完畢，我們選取申萬計(jì)算機(jī)347支標(biāo)的作為此次分析樣本。收入穩(wěn)健增長(zhǎng)，歸母凈利潤(rùn)下滑。2024H1:整體法下，行業(yè)整體收入為5439.25億元，同比增加7.53%，增速較2023H1（-0.21%）提升7.74個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；利潤(rùn)下滑明顯，歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降43.86%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降38.37%。中位數(shù)法下，收入同比減少0.31%，歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降79.88%。2024Q2:整體法下，行業(yè)整體收入為3027.98億元，同比增加8.91%，增速較2023Q2（0.67%）提升8.24個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；利潤(rùn)下滑明顯，歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降18.95%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降15.57%。中位數(shù)法下，收入同比減少0.58%，歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降73.57%。毛利率下降，三費(fèi)支出小幅回落。2024H1:行業(yè)整體毛利率為25.66%，同比下降1.81個(gè)百分點(diǎn),三大費(fèi)用率同比小幅下降，銷售費(fèi)用率、管理費(fèi)用率、研發(fā)費(fèi)用率分別為8.18%、5.49%、9.92%，分別同比變動(dòng)-0.62個(gè)百分點(diǎn)、-0.31個(gè)百分點(diǎn)、-0.72個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。2024Q2:行業(yè)整體毛利率為25.78%，同比下降2.27個(gè)百分點(diǎn),銷售費(fèi)用率、管理費(fèi)用率、研發(fā)費(fèi)用率分別為7.71%、5.00%、9.01%，分別同比變動(dòng)-0.88個(gè)百分點(diǎn)、-0.49個(gè)百分點(diǎn)、-1.05個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。細(xì)分板塊回顧：賽道分化顯著，工業(yè)軟件、智能汽車和云計(jì)算景氣度相對(duì)較好該部分選取12個(gè)子行業(yè)共計(jì)161家公司進(jìn)行分析。收入端：從各板塊營(yíng)收增速中位數(shù)來看，2024H1工業(yè)軟件（11.79%）、智能汽車（11.08%）、云計(jì)算（10.19%）、信創(chuàng)（5.96%）、人工智能（5.64%）位列在前。2024Q2智能汽車（18.72%）、工業(yè)軟件（11.98%）、能源IT（9.52%）、云計(jì)算（6.73%）、國防IT（3.47%）位列在前。利潤(rùn)端：從各板塊扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速中位數(shù)來看，2024H1智能汽車（19.54%）、云計(jì)算（14.66%）、信創(chuàng)（6.80%）、網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全（5.49%）、能源IT（-6.16%）位列前五。2024Q2網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全（17.43%）、云計(jì)算（14.93%）、信創(chuàng)（12.43%）、工業(yè)軟件（3.01%）、能源IT（-0.43%）位列前五。2024H1機(jī)構(gòu)持倉情況：持股基金數(shù)前十的計(jì)算機(jī)公司包括?？低暋⒔鹕睫k公、寶信軟件、浪潮信息、德賽西威、科大訊飛、柏楚電子、大華股份、達(dá)夢(mèng)數(shù)據(jù)、同花順。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示：下游景氣度不及預(yù)期；政策推進(jìn)不及預(yù)期；技術(shù)創(chuàng)新不及預(yù)期、行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇1.1計(jì)算機(jī)行業(yè)回顧1.1計(jì)算機(jī)行業(yè)回顧PAGE4PAGE4當(dāng)前計(jì)算機(jī)板塊整體處于歷史低估值水平。截至2024年8月30日，計(jì)算機(jī)板塊市盈率-TTM為31.66，近十年歷史中位數(shù)為49.03，分位點(diǎn)處于近十年的1.16%。計(jì)算機(jī)指數(shù)（申萬）過去10年市盈率-TTM低點(diǎn)為29.50，發(fā)生于2024年8月；歷史高點(diǎn)為146.43，發(fā)生于2015年6月。圖1計(jì)算機(jī)指數(shù)（申萬）近10年P(guān)E（TTM）PE(TTM) 近十年P(guān)E中位數(shù)1601401201008060402002014-09-01 2015-09-01 2016-09-01 2017-09-01 2018-09-01 2019-09-01 2020-09-01 2021-09-01 2022-09-01 2023-09-01資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所根據(jù)iFinD數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，2024H1按持股基金數(shù)前十的計(jì)算機(jī)公司如下表所示：?？低?、金山辦公、寶信軟件、浪潮信息、德賽西威、科大訊飛、柏楚電子、大華股份、達(dá)夢(mèng)數(shù)據(jù)、同花順。根據(jù)iFinD數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，2024H1按基金持股數(shù)量前十的計(jì)算機(jī)公司如下表所示：?？低暋⒕W(wǎng)宿科技、衛(wèi)寧健康、廣聯(lián)達(dá)、納思達(dá)、用友網(wǎng)絡(luò)、科大訊飛、三六零、巖山科技、紫光股份。圖2持基金前十算機(jī)標(biāo)的 圖3基持股前十算機(jī)標(biāo)的股票代碼股票名稱持股基金數(shù)（股票代碼股票名稱持股基金數(shù)（）基金持股數(shù)量（萬股）公募基金持股市值（萬元）002415.SZ?？低?10770150.061107807.33688111.SH金山辦公8987664.641131016.67600845.SH寶信軟件64717757.53202286.88000977.SZ浪潮信息60913837.42126010.42002920.SZ德賽西威5347840.63248397.89002230.SZ科大訊飛50522107.06516503.52688188.SH柏楚電子4712734.33128907.33002236.SZ大華股份46418321.2846841.89688692.SH達(dá)夢(mèng)數(shù)據(jù)456513.0518813.82300033.SZ同花順4153223.9144145.11股票代碼股票名稱基金持股數(shù)量（萬股）持股基金數(shù)（）公募基金持股市值（萬元）002415.SZ海康威視70150.0611071107807.33300017.SZ網(wǎng)宿科技49090.46411130442.35300253.SZ衛(wèi)寧健康33921.5432549324.23002410.SZ廣聯(lián)達(dá)28681.9638379687.37002180.SZ納思達(dá)27131.84374457622.40600588.SH用友網(wǎng)絡(luò)24198.6026192268.71002230.SZ科大訊飛22107.06505516503.52601360.SH三六零21003.6917721241.40002195.SZ巖山科技19132.7611214023.93000938.SZ紫光股份18975.71386165844.57資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所 資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所1.2個(gè)股估值表1.2個(gè)股估值表PAGEPAGE5細(xì)分板塊股票代碼股票名稱歸母凈利潤(rùn)（億元）細(xì)分板塊股票代碼股票名稱歸母凈利潤(rùn)（億元）PE（參考8月31日值）總市值（億元）20232024E2025E2026E20232024E2025E2026E云計(jì)算600588用友網(wǎng)絡(luò)-9.671.474.176.90-62.88202.6071.4243.14297.75002410廣聯(lián)達(dá)1.165.307.769.72246.3432.3222.0717.61171.14603613國聯(lián)股份14.280.000.000.0011.130.000.000.00142.09002153石基信息-1.050.931.922.49-254.08156.4675.9558.45145.74300017網(wǎng)宿科技6.136.357.428.6031.2127.6423.6720.41175.51603171稅友股份0.832.073.164.15172.7947.1430.9023.5697.81300738奧飛數(shù)據(jù)1.411.962.994.1371.4545.1329.6421.4588.57000938紫光股份21.0324.3629.5234.4726.3223.1819.1216.38564.58000977浪潮信息17.8321.4726.2531.3427.4122.2118.1615.21476.68688095福昕軟件-0.91(0.30)0.160.71-70.27(155.80)205.4055.2840.01688158優(yōu)刻得-3.43(1.87)(0.80)0.73-21.75(23.85)-56.0161.5344.72600602云賽智聯(lián)1.932.282.783.3882.0357.8047.5039.01113.85603881數(shù)據(jù)港1.231.541.942.1874.2249.9739.5635.2176.81300383光環(huán)新網(wǎng)3.885.907.569.0545.0424.4619.0615.93144.17人工智能688111金山辦公13.1815.7919.9825.09110.7953.3842.1933.58842.77002415?？低?41.08156.55181.37207.8622.9615.7613.6011.872467.11002230科大訊飛6.577.0910.0813.70163.40113.1979.7558.69795.01688327云從科技-6.43(4.59)(3.52)(2.75)-27.17(18.21)-23.74-30.3983.58002236大華股份73.6237.5443.9950.368.2612.0310.278.97451.71300229拓爾思0.362.293.123.77367.7040.0729.4124.3091.62300624萬興科技0.860.991.321.74151.1180.3160.0345.4479.19688256寒武紀(jì)-8.48(4.78)(1.95)1.35-66.27(224.23)-550.00792.881071.57688039當(dāng)虹科技-1.38(0.09)0.050.36-29.29(246.87)413.3061.5422.07688088虹軟科技0.881.432.002.62188.3071.1650.8538.70101.58688207格靈深瞳-0.90(0.28)(0.15)0.05-60.09(96.93)-180.94542.8127.14688343云天勵(lì)飛-3.830.000.000.00-45.650.000.000.0082.78細(xì)分板塊碼股票名稱歸母凈利潤(rùn)（億元）PE（參考8月31日值）總市值（億元）20232024E2025E2026E20232024E2025E2026E信創(chuàng)688041海光信息12.6317.4024.1032.03130.61106.0876.5657.611845.29002180納思達(dá)-61.8513.0517.4022.58-5.1827.0620.3015.64353.16603019中科曙光18.3622.1126.6231.5431.4824.4020.2817.11539.65688047龍芯中科-3.29(1.27)0.241.12-134.64(287.39)1,523.12325.40364.75000066中國長(zhǎng)城-9.771.473.104.68-33.40176.6083.5055.36259.03600536中國軟件-2.331.322.453.69-133.94198.98106.7170.98261.94300212易華錄-18.900.061.563.32-12.041749.3968.8232.32107.41300379東方通-6.730.000.000.00-15.400.000.000.0053.28002368太極股份3.754.625.967.8049.0520.7016.1012.3692.61000034神州數(shù)碼11.7214.1717.1920.5417.0911.629.588.01164.65688152麒麟信安-0.300.000.000.00-183.180.000.000.0026.32301236軟通動(dòng)力5.347.079.1411.3882.4645.9035.4728.50324.29688118普元信息-0.160.000.000.00-182.220.000.000.0011.81603508思維列控4.125.076.157.1114.5313.6411.249.7369.13300996普聯(lián)軟件0.621.511.922.3674.6122.6917.9114.5434.37300634彩訊股份3.253.093.824.6228.2319.7415.9713.2261.02688258卓易信息0.560.761.001.3276.6438.4129.2022.1229.20603039泛微網(wǎng)絡(luò)1.792.182.583.0868.4034.8129.3724.6075.73688369致遠(yuǎn)互聯(lián)-0.500.480.831.20-79.6834.6719.9313.7116.50688031星環(huán)科技-2.88(1.69)(0.26)1.06-27.28(20.10)-132.3432.0034.03688058寶蘭德0.150.000.000.00182.080.000.000.0014.37300598誠邁科技1.880.000.000.0038.110.000.000.0065.16603138海量數(shù)據(jù)-0.81(0.27)0.150.50-62.08(127.11)236.8969.9534.74300925法本信息33.8844.5220.7115.4811.6945.36002261拓維信息0.451.951.291.84419.4176.41115.4880.96148.96603039泛微網(wǎng)絡(luò)1.792.182.583.0868.4034.8129.3724.6075.73盈利預(yù)測(cè)來自iFinD一致預(yù)期；資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所1.2個(gè)股估值表1.2個(gè)股估值表盈利預(yù)測(cè)來自iFinD一致預(yù)期；資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所PAGE6盈利預(yù)測(cè)來自iFinD一致預(yù)期；資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所PAGE6細(xì)分板塊股票代碼股票名稱細(xì)分板塊股票代碼股票名稱歸母凈利潤(rùn)（億元）PE（參考8月31日值）總市值（億元20232024E2025E2026E20232024E2025E2026E工業(yè)軟件301269華大九天2.011.352.613.70286.32296.72153.78108.39401.29688777中控技術(shù)11.0213.0015.9519.4332.3523.9719.5416.04311.73688188柏楚電子7.299.9413.2817.4550.8133.4125.0219.04332.20688083中望軟件0.610.841.261.65196.6393.1161.9247.3077.80688206概倫電子-0.56(0.39)(0.11)0.27-167.93(147.54)-524.67212.2057.70300687賽意信息2.543.003.664.4435.1117.3014.1911.7151.96300378鼎捷軟件1.501.822.222.7638.1924.5720.1616.2144.79603859能科科技2.202.913.734.6128.6312.749.928.0337.05600845寶信軟件25.5430.5437.9246.9745.9327.6622.2717.98709.94301095廣立微1.291.933.064.10116.0439.8225.1618.7777.02300935盈建科-0.400.000.000.00-54.170.000.000.0013.66688083中望軟件0.610.841.261.65196.6393.1161.9247.3077.80網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全601360三六零-4.920.472.284.37-130.731064.20219.38114.46500.18300454深信服1.982.723.925.33153.4071.8649.9536.72195.57688561奇安信0.722.163.555.67382.8371.6843.5827.29154.85002439啟明星辰7.419.0311.2713.9134.3817.8214.2811.57160.95688023安恒信息-3.600.100.901.84-24.33318.0834.4716.8831.06300188國投智能-2.062.182.783.67-66.9642.1733.1025.0892.05688225亞信安全-2.91(0.04)1.001.74-25.20(1032.99)42.9024.7843.04300369綠盟科技-9.77(0.86)0.852.10-7.72(49.69)50.5120.3942.84300352北信源0.070.000.000.001045.640.000.000.0051.76688201信安世紀(jì)0.110.911.351.70377.0323.9916.2412.8721.85300659中孚信息-1.860.000.000.00-26.900.000.000.0031.77688168安博通0.120.520.771.08234.1141.6628.1320.0621.66603496恒為科技0.792.142.993.92126.6531.5422.5217.1767.34細(xì)分板塊股票代碼股票名稱歸母凈利潤(rùn)（億元）PE（參考8月31日值）總市值（億元20232024E2025E2026E20232024E2025E2026E網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全003029吉大正元-1.570.901.913.76-23.1436.5517.278.7632.90002212天融信-3.712.443.314.17-31.2020.8615.3712.2350.95300768迪普科技1.271.622.062.6275.1448.2237.9629.7978.16688244永信至誠0.310.631.011.44124.3135.8422.5815.8022.70603232格爾軟件0.370.760.951.2686.4130.9524.6818.6223.47688651盛邦安全0.430.630.931.2783.4731.0420.9315.4419.53688489三未信安0.671.081.421.8079.6026.2619.9615.6928.30688030山石網(wǎng)科-2.40(1.25)0.111.06-15.05(14.79)168.1117.4418.49002268電科網(wǎng)安3.494.345.336.5454.4624.3219.8016.15105.55智能汽車002920德賽西威15.4721.1627.5834.8146.4723.9218.3514.54506.11300496中科創(chuàng)達(dá)4.665.537.349.5978.9929.0521.7616.62157.60002405四維圖新-13.14(7.09)(2.29)1.52-16.11(24.54)-75.88114.56174.05688326經(jīng)緯恒潤(rùn)-2.17(0.09)2.594.08-64.10(846.54)28.8018.3074.62002869金溢科技0.490.000.000.0073.690.000.000.0042.75688208道通科技1.795.426.728.3459.8820.1516.2413.09109.17600718東軟集團(tuán)0.742.954.275.91151.8633.1222.8916.5497.74301221光庭信息-0.150.420.550.66-349.1571.0553.7444.9329.49002373千方科技5.426.427.388.9732.6619.4916.9513.95125.15688288鴻泉物聯(lián)-0.720.000.120.73-33.300.00108.2817.8012.99002970銳明技術(shù)1.022.012.823.7851.9226.6018.9914.1853.54金融IT600570恒生電子14.2415.7818.7521.7138.3719.6016.4914.25309.31300674宇信科技3.263.554.335.2635.5221.2917.4514.3775.55600446金證股份3.694.345.286.1529.6120.8617.1514.7390.56300348長(zhǎng)亮科技0.320.951.542.28234.8164.3839.4726.7260.86002987京北方3.483.934.665.5423.5917.5314.7912.4668.96300663科藍(lán)軟件-1.230.000.000.00-53.140.000.000.0046.13細(xì)分板塊股票代碼股票名稱歸母凈利潤(rùn)（億元）PE（參考8月31日值）總市值（億元）細(xì)分板塊股票代碼股票名稱歸母凈利潤(rùn)（億元）PE（參考8月31日值）總市值（億元20232024E2025E2026E20232024E2025E2026E20232024E2025E2026E20232024E2025E2026E金融IT603383頂點(diǎn)軟件2.332.593.193.8836.1821.1917.2514.1654.97教育IT300559佳發(fā)教育1.311.782.373.0947.2618.6613.9710.7233.16300130新國都7.558.5011.2013.3817.8410.788.186.8591.61301185鷗瑪軟件0.771.041.330.0040.7620.7316.210.0021.56300377贏時(shí)勝0.680.000.000.0086.180.000.000.0043.19300645正元智慧0.420.000.000.0061.750.000.000.0016.57300166東方國信-3.860.000.000.00-28.040.000.000.0071.63003005競(jìng)業(yè)達(dá)0.100.000.000.00453.850.000.000.0031.27300531優(yōu)博訊-1.670.140.290.45-30.16295.11142.4791.8141.31300248新開普1.080.000.000.0042.490.000.000.0031.77300803指南針0.732.033.404.71339.3874.1244.0331.75146.09政務(wù)IT688232新點(diǎn)軟件1.952.603.163.7961.3426.2921.6618.0668.44300033同花順14.0214.3616.4718.6660.1338.5433.6029.66553.24000032深桑達(dá)A3.304.545.656.9473.1231.7225.4720.75143.95688318財(cái)富趨勢(shì)3.112.953.383.7753.1255.1248.1843.13162.62300525博思軟件3.274.115.286.6034.3320.9916.3613.0886.33300542新晨科技0.360.791.071.69107.5543.3631.8120.1434.04300075數(shù)字政通1.343.013.985.0481.3524.9518.8914.9175.09000555神州信息2.074.035.347.1153.6220.5215.4911.6482.75301208中亦科技1.461.742.002.2526.6919.4316.9115.0333.82002908德生科技0.730.931.171.4684.1433.2926.3421.1230.80603927中科軟6.557.408.5910.1927.1818.0715.5613.13133.71301153中科江南3.003.634.776.1550.7917.2013.0610.1462.36688590新致軟件0.691.632.273.2084.6717.0012.218.6527.66603636南威軟件0.561.612.102.70134.5629.0522.2717.3246.78000948南天信息1.562.052.532.9038.1524.5919.9217.3850.40002279久其軟件-1.420.000.000.00-39.630.000.000.0039.10醫(yī)療IT002065東華軟件4.380.000.000.0045.110.000.000.00145.85688579山大地緯0.810.971.221.5162.6030.2724.0719.4429.36300253衛(wèi)寧健康3.585.407.188.9243.2321.7816.4013.19117.73002474榕基軟件-1.460.000.000.00-28.110.000.000.0027.13300168萬達(dá)信息-8.99(3.03)(2.02)0.14-13.62(24.07)-36.11505.5072.95002421達(dá)實(shí)智能1.151.922.313.1159.4926.9522.4016.6451.74300451創(chuàng)業(yè)慧康0.372.253.274.41276.5723.2616.0011.9051.59600728佳都科技3.950.951.752.6531.0886.1446.6630.8181.66002777久遠(yuǎn)銀海1.681.982.402.9261.0526.3121.7617.8752.17300271華宇軟件-13.110.000.000.00-5.120.000.000.0037.55688246嘉和美康0.420.991.421.89108.9124.1716.8612.6223.91600756浪潮軟件0.910.000.000.0049.400.000.000.0032.22300078思創(chuàng)醫(yī)惠-8.740.000.000.00-4.370.000.000.0024.78軍工IT688066航天宏圖-3.741.402.754.20-29.4824.5112.508.1934.38300550和仁科技0.390.000.000.00100.620.000.000.0027.65能源IT300682朗新集團(tuán)6.046.788.079.4329.7613.4811.329.6991.40688568中科星圖3.434.836.659.0452.4830.6722.2616.40148.16688248南網(wǎng)科技2.814.336.057.9850.1334.2224.4918.58148.23301302華如科技-2.220.000.000.00-17.920.000.000.0021.81002063遠(yuǎn)光軟件3.444.335.256.2634.2120.5216.9214.1888.78603516淳中科技33.03238.0247.4430.6918.5156.11301162國能日新0.841.111.451.8461.1230.4623.3018.3633.85688078龍軟科技0.841.051.321.6234.4515.3212.149.9116.01002544普天科技0.362.042.713.08389.7157.2342.9937.87116.58300275梅安森0.450.640.901.2278.0651.8537.0127.3133.33688175高凌信息0.460.000.000.0056.350.000.000.0015.74300365恒華科技0.180.430.731.06227.0372.9642.9829.6031.37688682霍萊沃0.270.861.161.23128.0023.6317.5916.5620.40600131國網(wǎng)信通8.2810.0911.5613.1022.0019.6317.1315.12198.05301117佳緣科技-0.050.681.051.34-939.5434.6722.3217.5223.44688060云涌科技-0.070.000.000.00-418.330.000.000.0016.401.3計(jì)算機(jī)業(yè)績(jī)回顧1.3計(jì)算機(jī)業(yè)績(jī)回顧PAGE8PAGE8我們選取申萬計(jì)算機(jī)347支成分股，總結(jié)計(jì)算機(jī)2024H1和2024Q2的經(jīng)營(yíng)情況。計(jì)算機(jī)行業(yè)2024H1營(yíng)收增速回升，盈利待反轉(zhuǎn)。整體法下，2024H1行業(yè)整體收入為5439.25億元，同比增加7.53%，增速較2023H1（-0.21%）提升7.74個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；利潤(rùn)下滑明顯，歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降43.86%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降38.37%。中位數(shù)法下，收入同比減少0.31%，歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降79.88%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降187.81%。圖42021H1-2024H1行業(yè)整體營(yíng)收及增速（整體法）營(yíng)業(yè)收入（百萬元） yoy25.71%8.11%25.71%8.11%7.53%-0.21%540000520000

30%25%20%

圖52021H1-2024H1行業(yè)整體歸母凈利潤(rùn)及增速（整體法）歸母凈利潤(rùn)（百萬元） yoy2500025.93%20000

30%20%10%500000480000460000440000420000

15%10%5%0%-5%

150001000050000

-33.73%

1.88%

0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-43.86%-50%2021H1 2022H1 2023H1 2024H1 2021H1 2022H1 2023H1 2024H1資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所 資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所計(jì)算機(jī)行業(yè)2024Q2總體營(yíng)收增速回升，凈利潤(rùn)下滑。整體法下，2024Q2行業(yè)整體收入為3027.98億元，同比增加8.91%，增速較2023Q2（0.67%）提升8.24個(gè)百分點(diǎn)；利潤(rùn)下滑明顯，歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降18.95%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降15.57%。中位數(shù)法下，收入同比減少0.58%，歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降73.57%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降83.35%。圖62021Q2-2024Q2行業(yè)整體營(yíng)收及增速（整體法）營(yíng)業(yè)收入（百萬元） yoy21.62%8.91%21.62%8.91%2.23%0.67%300000

25%20%

圖72021Q2-2024Q2行業(yè)整體歸母凈利潤(rùn)及增速（整體法）歸母凈利潤(rùn)（百萬元） yoy18000-1.70%1600014000

0%-5%290000280000270000260000250000

15%10%5%0%

120001000080006000400020000

-29.85%

-10.11%

-10%-15%-18.95%-20%-25%-30%-35%2Q2021 2Q2022 2Q2023 2Q2024資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

2Q2021 2Q2022 2Q2023 2Q2024資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所1.3計(jì)算機(jī)業(yè)績(jī)回顧1.3計(jì)算機(jī)業(yè)績(jī)回顧資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所PAGE10userid:549683,docid:176180,date:2024-09-29,資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所PAGE10userid:549683,docid:176180,date:2024-09-29,2024H1行業(yè)毛利率下降，三費(fèi)支出小幅回落。2024H1行業(yè)整體毛利率為25.66%，同比下降1.81個(gè)百分點(diǎn),三大費(fèi)用率同比小幅下降，銷售費(fèi)用率、管理費(fèi)用率、研發(fā)費(fèi)用率分別為8.18%、5.49%、9.92%，分別同比變動(dòng)-0.62個(gè)百分點(diǎn)、-0.31個(gè)百分點(diǎn)、-0.72個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。圖82021H1-2024H1毛利率 圖92021H1-2024H1行業(yè)費(fèi)用率28%28%27%27%26%26%25%25%

毛利率27.69%27.47%26.58%27.69%27.47%26.58%25.66%

12%10%8%6%4%2%0%

銷售費(fèi)用率 管理費(fèi)用率 研發(fā)費(fèi)用率10.64%10.64%9.92%9.07%7.96%9.77%8.80%7.96%8.18%5.29%5.47%5.79%5.49%2021H1 2022H1 2023H1 2024H11.3計(jì)算機(jī)業(yè)績(jī)回顧1.3計(jì)算機(jī)業(yè)績(jī)回顧PAGE11PAGE112024Q2行業(yè)毛利率下降，三費(fèi)支出小幅回落。2024Q2行業(yè)整體毛利率為25.78%，同比下降2.27個(gè)百分點(diǎn),三大費(fèi)用率同比小幅下降，銷售費(fèi)用率、管理費(fèi)用率、研發(fā)費(fèi)用率分別為7.71%、5.00%、9.01%，分別同比變動(dòng)-0.88個(gè)百分點(diǎn)、-0.49個(gè)百分點(diǎn)、-1.05個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。圖102021Q2-2024Q228.33%28.05%28.33%28.05%27.07%25.78%29%28%28%27%27%26%26%25%25%

毛利率

圖112021Q2-2024Q2行業(yè)費(fèi)用率銷售費(fèi)用率 管理費(fèi)用率 研發(fā)費(fèi)用率8.32%7.42%8.32%7.42%9.36%7.73%10.07%8.59%9.01%7.71%4.73%5.13%5.49%5.00%10%8%6%4%2%0%2Q2021 2Q2022 2Q2023 2Q2024資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

2Q2021 2Q2022 2Q2023 2Q2024資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所2細(xì)分行業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)回顧2細(xì)分行業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)回顧資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所PAGE12資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所PAGE12該部分選取12個(gè)子行業(yè)共計(jì)161家公司進(jìn)行分析。收入端：從2024H1各板塊營(yíng)收增速中位數(shù)來看，工業(yè)軟件（11.79%）、智能汽車（11.08%）、云計(jì)算（10.19%）、信創(chuàng)（5.96%）、人工智能（5.64%）位列在前。利潤(rùn)端：從2024H1年各板塊扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速中位數(shù)來看，智能汽車（19.54%）、云計(jì)算（14.66%）、信創(chuàng)（6.80%）、網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全（5.49%）、能源IT（-6.16%）位列前五。圖122022H1-2024H1計(jì)算機(jī)各板塊營(yíng)收增速中位數(shù)

圖132022H1-2024H1計(jì)算機(jī)各板塊扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速中位數(shù)50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%

2022H1 2023H1 2024H1

120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%-80%-100%

2022H1 2023H1 2024H1該部分選取12個(gè)子行業(yè)共計(jì)161家公司進(jìn)行分析。收入端：從2024Q2各板塊營(yíng)收增速中位數(shù)來看，智能汽車（18.72%）、工業(yè)軟件（11.98%）、能源IT（9.52%）、云計(jì)算（6.73%）、國防IT（3.47%）位列前五。利潤(rùn)端：從2024Q2年各板塊扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速中位數(shù)來看，網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全（17.43%）、云計(jì)算（14.93%）、信創(chuàng)（12.43%）、工業(yè)軟件（3.01%）、能源IT（-0.43%）位列前五。圖142022Q2-2024Q2計(jì)算機(jī)各板塊營(yíng)收增速中位數(shù)2022Q2 2023Q2 2024Q260%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%

圖152022Q2-2024Q2計(jì)算機(jī)各板塊扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速中位數(shù)2022Q2 2023Q2 2024Q2100%50%0%-50%-100%-150%2細(xì)分行業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)回顧2細(xì)分行業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)回顧PAGE14PAGE14以下對(duì)12個(gè)子行業(yè)的24H1收入及扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)進(jìn)行整體法分析。云計(jì)算：收入同比增長(zhǎng)25.78%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比增長(zhǎng)14.66人工智能：收入同比增長(zhǎng)8.59%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降7.33%圖162021H1-2024H1云計(jì)算營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖172021H1-2024H1云計(jì)算扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速

圖182021H1-2024H1人工智能營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖192021H1-2024H1人工智能扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%-10.00%-20.00%

云計(jì)算16.35%2021H12022H116.35%2021H12022H12023H12024H1-10.43%

25.78%

30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%-10.00%-20.00%-30.00%

云計(jì)算

50.00%40.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%

人工智能40.44%9.97%8.59%40.44%9.97%8.59%1.68%

40.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%-10.00%-20.00%

18.60%14.66%1.40%18.60%14.66%1.40%2021H12022H12023H12024H1-24.60%29.91%12.16%2021H12022H12023H1-7.33%2024H1-11.50%資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所信創(chuàng)：收入同比增長(zhǎng)12.93%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比增長(zhǎng)6.80% 工業(yè)軟件：收入同比增長(zhǎng)15.40%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降29.90%圖202021H1-2024H1信創(chuàng)營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖212021H1-2024H1信創(chuàng)扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速

圖222021H1-2024H1工業(yè)軟件營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖232021H1-2024H1工業(yè)軟件扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速40.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%-10.00%

信創(chuàng)17.70%10.97%2021H117.70%10.97%2021H12022H12023H1 2024H1-29.90%

信創(chuàng)41.51%6.80%2021H12022H141.51%6.80%2021H12022H12023H1-33.23%2024H1-24.65%12.93%9.12%2021H12022H1-5.59%2023H12024H140.00%20.00%0.00%-20.00%-40.00%

50.00%40.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%

工業(yè)軟件42.80%23.36%15.61%42.80%23.36%15.61%15.40%

40.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%-10.00%-20.00%-30.00%-40.00%

32.99%

工業(yè)軟件資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全：收入同比下降8.84%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比增長(zhǎng)智能汽車：收入同比增長(zhǎng)19.54%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比增長(zhǎng)19.54%圖242021H1-2024H1網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖252021H1-2024H1網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速

圖262021H1-2024H1智能汽車營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖272021H1-2024H1智能汽車扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%-5.00%-10.00%

97.05%19.86%11.26%19.54%17.41%97.05%19.86%11.26%19.54%

網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全

3.64%3.45%3.64%3.45%2021H12022H12023H12024H1-8.84%0.00%-20.00%-40.00%-60.00%-80.00%-100.00%

網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全

12.85%5.49%12.85%5.49%-2.89%2021H1 2022H1 2023H1 2024H1-81.98%35.00%30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%

19.10%19.54%19.10%19.54%13.68%

智能汽車

120.00%100.00%80.00%60.00%40.00%20.00%0.00%

智能汽車-15.00%

2021H1 2022H1 2023H1 2024H1

2021H1 2022H1 2023H1 2024H1資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所金融IT：收入同比下降2.68%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降18.80%醫(yī)療IT：收入同比下降1.35%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降26.05%圖282021H1-2024H1金融IT營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖292021H1-2024H1金融IT扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速

圖302021H1-2024H1醫(yī)療IT營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖312021H1-2024H1醫(yī)療IT扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%-5.00%

29.30%19.27%2021H1 29.30%19.27%2021H1 .212023H12024H1-18.80%-10.83%2021H1 2022H1 2024H1-26.05%-65.87%

金融IT

12.04%4.94%12.04%4.94%2021H12022H12023H1-2.68%2024H130.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%-10.00%-20.00%-30.00%

金融IT

40.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%-10.00%

醫(yī)療IT

33.59%8.78%33.59%8.78%-1.35%2021H1-3.65%2022H12023H12024H120.00%0.00%-20.00%-40.00%-60.00%-80.00%

30.66%

醫(yī)療IT資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所能源IT：收入同比增長(zhǎng)2.58%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降6.16% 教育IT：收入同比下降5.95%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降51.12%圖322021H1-2024H1能源IT營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖332021H1-2024H1能源IT扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速

圖342021H1-2024H1教育IT營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖352021H1-2024H1教育IT扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%

能源IT21.68%11.17%9.92%21.68%11.17%9.92%2.58%

25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%-5.00%-10.00%

能源IT

38.89%5.54%2021H1 2022H1 2023H1 2024H1-51.12%-74.59%38.89%5.54%2021H1 2022H1 2023H1 2024H1-51.12%-74.59%

6.54%7.41%6.54%7.41%2021H12022H12023H12024H1-6.16%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%-5.00%-10.00%-15.00%

教育IT

5.97%2021H15.97%2021H12022H12023H12024H1-8.83%-5.95%

60.00%40.00%20.00%0.00%-20.00%-40.00%-60.00%-80.00%-100.00%

教育IT資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所政務(wù)IT：收入同比增長(zhǎng)16.87%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降28.51國防IT：收入同比下降2.03%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降64.78%圖362021H1-2024H1政務(wù)IT營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖372021H1-2024H1政務(wù)IT扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速

圖382021H1-2024H1國防IT營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖392021H1-2024H1國防IT扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速250.00%200.00%150.00%100.00%50.00%0.00%

44.75%15.09%2021H1 2022H1-16.61%2023H1 -28.51%12.83%44.75%15.09%2021H1 2022H1-16.61%2023H1 -28.51%12.83%18.04%16.87%15.64%10.87%2021H12022H12023H1-2.03%2024H1

政務(wù)IT

60.00%40.00%20.00%0.00%-20.00%

政務(wù)IT

35.00%30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%

31.16%

國防IT

80.00%60.00%40.00%20.00%0.00%-20.00%-40.00%-60.00%

國防IT2021H1 2022H1 2023H1

-40.00%

-5.00%

-80.00%58.87%0.04%58.87%0.04%2021H12022H1 .12024H1-64.78%

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所以下對(duì)12個(gè)子行業(yè)的24Q2收入及扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)進(jìn)行整體法分析。云計(jì)算：收入同比增長(zhǎng)25.45%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比增長(zhǎng)14.93人工智能：收入同比增長(zhǎng)7.65%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降12.24%圖402021Q2-2024Q2云計(jì)算營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖412021Q2-2024Q2云計(jì)算扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速

圖422021Q2-2024Q2人工智能營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖432021Q2-2024Q2人工智能扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%-5.00%-10.00%-15.00%

云計(jì)算

19.67%10.79%19.67%10.79%2Q20212Q20222Q20232Q2024-10.71%

16.00%14.00%12.00%10.00%8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%-2.00%

云計(jì)算

7.18%-1.13%1Q2021-0.69%7.18%-1.13%1Q2021-0.69%2Q20213Q20214Q2021

40.00%35.00%30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%

人工智能34.35%7.65%3.69%34.35%7.65%3.69%4.69%

30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%-10.00%-20.00%-30.00%

人工智能6.88%1Q20212Q20216.88%1Q20212Q2021-18.18%3Q20214Q2021-12.24%資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所信創(chuàng)：收入同比增長(zhǎng)18.07%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比增長(zhǎng)12.43% 工業(yè)軟件：收入同比增長(zhǎng)7.74%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比增長(zhǎng)3.01%圖442021Q2-2024Q2信創(chuàng)營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖452021Q2-2024Q2信創(chuàng)扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速

圖462021Q2-2024Q2工業(yè)軟件營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖472021Q2-2024Q2工業(yè)軟件扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速60.00%50.00%40.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%-10.00%-20.00%

信創(chuàng)18.07%1.64%2Q202118.07%1.64%2Q20212Q2022-8.21%2Q20232Q2024

信創(chuàng)19.69%12.43%1Q202119.69%12.43%1Q2021213Q20214Q2021-20.16%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%-5.00%-10.00%-15.00%-20.00%-25.00%

40.00%35.00%30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%

工業(yè)軟件34.20%29.36%6.20%7.74%34.20%29.36%6.20%7.74%

70.00%60.00%50.00%40.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%

工業(yè)軟件61.88%61.88%28.65%12.72%3.01%1Q2021 2Q2021 3Q2021 4Q2021資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全：收入同比下降9.46%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比增長(zhǎng)17.43%智能汽車：收入同比增長(zhǎng)18.34%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降9.41%圖482021Q2-2024Q2網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖492021Q2-2024Q2網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速

圖502021Q2-2024Q2智能汽車營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖512021Q2-2024Q2智能汽車扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速10.19%7.66%10.19%7.66%2Q20212Q20222Q20232Q2024-9.46%-5.16%10.00%5.00%0.00%-5.00%-10.00%

網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全

40.00%20.00%0.00%-20.00%-40.00%-60.00%-80.00%-100.00%-120.00%

19.04%17.43%19.04%17.43%1Q2021-54.44%2Q20213Q2021 4Q2021-121.43%

35.00%30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%

35.28%11.89%1Q20212Q20213Q2021-9.41%4Q202135.28%11.89%1Q20212Q20213Q2021-9.41%4Q2021-60.98%17.33%18.34%12.75%

智能汽車

60.00%40.00%20.00%0.00%-20.00%-40.00%-60.00%

智能汽車-15.00%

-140.00%

2Q2021 2Q2022 2Q2023 2Q2024

-80.00%資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所金融IT：收入同比下降2.23%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降23.53%醫(yī)療IT：收入同比下降5.65%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降100.34%圖522021Q2-2024Q2金融IT營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖532021Q2-2024Q2金融IT扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速

圖542021Q2-2024Q2醫(yī)療IT營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖552021Q2-2024Q2醫(yī)療IT扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速20.00%15.00%10.00%5.00%0.00%-5.00%

金融IT

20.00%10.00%0.00%-10.00%-20.00%-30.00%

金融IT-0.97%1Q2021-0.97%1Q2021113Q2021 4Q2021-23.53%16.58%7.26%2.56%2Q20212Q20222Q2023-2.23%2Q202432.14%14.98%2Q2021-16.27%2Q20222Q2023-5.65%2Q2024

40.00%30.00%20.00%10.00%0.00%-10.00%-20.00%

40.48%1Q20212Q2021-55.79%40.48%1Q20212Q2021-55.79%3Q2021 4Q2021-51.48%-100.34%

60.00%40.00%20.00%0.00%-20.00%-40.00%-60.00%-80.00%-100.00%-120.00%

醫(yī)療IT資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所

資料來源：iFinD，上海證券研究所能源IT：收入同比增長(zhǎng)9.38%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降0.43% 教育IT：收入同比下降16.68%，扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)同比下降13.78%圖562021Q2-2024Q2能源IT營(yíng)業(yè)收入增速

圖572021Q2-2024Q2能源IT扣非歸母凈利潤(rùn)增速

圖582021Q2-2024Q2教