股票研究行業(yè)季報(bào)證券研究報(bào)告股票研究行業(yè)季報(bào)證券研究報(bào)告股票研究/2025-11-19投資建議：重點(diǎn)關(guān)注具有全球競(jìng)爭(zhēng)優(yōu)勢(shì)的CXO公司：藥明康德、藥明合聯(lián)、藥明生物、康龍化成、凱萊英、博騰股份、九洲藥業(yè)等；重點(diǎn)關(guān)注以國(guó)內(nèi)收入為主，預(yù)期隨創(chuàng)新藥出海而逐步復(fù)蘇的企業(yè)：泰格醫(yī)藥等；同時(shí)建議關(guān)注畢得醫(yī)藥、百奧賽圖等。期性底部，但復(fù)蘇呈現(xiàn)顯著結(jié)構(gòu)性分化。臨床CRO（以IQVIA、詢單或訂單取消率呈現(xiàn)改善趨勢(shì)。我們判斷，行業(yè)已進(jìn)入由景氣度上行周期早期階段，但全面復(fù)蘇的強(qiáng)度和持續(xù)性將取決于生物科技融資熱的延續(xù)性。績(jī)穩(wěn)健。公司與Vacaville再簽戰(zhàn)略長(zhǎng)約，以及“早期業(yè)務(wù)僅占收入能將于H2起陸續(xù)投產(chǎn)，顯示其正處于能力升級(jí)和 52.1.CharlesRiver：整體表現(xiàn)或接近觸底，主業(yè)務(wù)營(yíng)收或在2 52.2.SamsungBiol 6 7 7請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分2of9性將取決于生物科技融資熱的延續(xù)性。長(zhǎng)約20%，同時(shí)，取消額已由年化30+億美元回歸常態(tài)22億美元；2）不變約25%-30%”及累計(jì)合同量已超過(guò)200億美元，展示了其強(qiáng)大的訂單儲(chǔ)訂單爬升的關(guān)鍵階段。最核心的積極信號(hào)是“pharma與biotech客戶對(duì)IRA/關(guān)稅達(dá)成情緒轉(zhuǎn)穩(wěn)，回流產(chǎn)能且詢盤(pán)顯著升溫”。其生物生產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)訂增速和臨床研究業(yè)務(wù)新簽授權(quán)強(qiáng)勁表明研發(fā)活動(dòng)持續(xù)活躍。公司上調(diào)全年績(jī)提供了確定性。請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分3of9表1：2025年三季度海外CXO業(yè)績(jī)匯總預(yù)期中值下調(diào)40個(gè)基點(diǎn)，減少至5.7%-7.1%RDS業(yè)務(wù)合同積壓324億美元，同比增長(zhǎng)約4.1%，2025全年?duì)I收預(yù)計(jì)在24.8-25位于Vacaville的大型哺乳動(dòng)物細(xì)胞生產(chǎn)基地持續(xù)受全年?duì)I收指引上調(diào)至441億美元-445億核心銷(xiāo)售增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期為較低的單位數(shù)百分比，公司訂單漏斗已連續(xù)兩個(gè)季度環(huán)比擴(kuò)大，詢價(jià)→報(bào)價(jià)體book-to-bill仍≈1；mAbs耗請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分4of9訂單轉(zhuǎn)化速度，研究類型（長(zhǎng)期vs短期）等因素影響。要因商業(yè)CDMO客戶訂單減少。生物制品檢測(cè)業(yè)務(wù)樣本量持續(xù)下行，但率下降200bp?？蛻舳似毡檎J(rèn)同在可行時(shí)使用替代方法的理念，目前多數(shù)替代方法尚不完全可替代動(dòng)物模型，但公司定位將有利于引導(dǎo)客戶和監(jiān)管方的采用。請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分5of9工廠的技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)移和產(chǎn)能爬坡，以承接新訂單。合同狀況億美元。Q1-Q3訂單總量已接近2024年銷(xiāo)售和里程碑付款助力生物藥類似物板塊快速增長(zhǎng)：生物類似藥業(yè)務(wù)單季收入4410億韓元，同比增長(zhǎng)34%。營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)1290億韓元，同比增長(zhǎng)90%。拆分后預(yù)計(jì)有助于公司業(yè)務(wù)聚焦和資本市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)：公司出于消除客戶利益沖突和強(qiáng)化戰(zhàn)略聚焦的考慮已經(jīng)將生物類似藥板塊分拆為單獨(dú)公司請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分6of9利潤(rùn)率將提高至25%左右，公司已在Q3接近完成內(nèi)部剝離工作，后續(xù)進(jìn)展屬內(nèi)部程序，將在決定后公布。年全年業(yè)績(jī)將保持溫和增長(zhǎng)；3）Cell&Gene板后，表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于預(yù)期，預(yù)計(jì)全年銷(xiāo)售約5億瑞郎，利潤(rùn)率高于最初預(yù)估稅政策等地緣政治因素仍存不確定性。請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分7of9APPENDIX1SummaryInvestmentHighlights:Investmentadvice:EyesongloballycompetitiveCXOcompanies:WuXiAppTec,WuXiXDCCayman,WuxiBiologicsCayman,Pharmaron,AsymchemLaboratories,PortonPharmaSolutions,ZhejiangJiuzhouPharmaceutical;companiesintheinnovativedrugindustrychainwithimprovingprofitability:ShanghaiHaoyuanChemexpressCo.,Ltd.;companiesprimarilyearningdomesticrevenue,expectedtorecoverwithinnovativedrugexports:HangzhouTigermedConsulting;AlsosuggestattentiontoBidePharmatechCo.,Ltd.,BiocytogenPharmaceuticals.OverseasCXOprosperityconfirmedatthebottom,showingstructuralrecovery.Theindustryhaspassedthecyclicalbottom,butrecoveryshowssignificantstructuraldifferentiation.ClinicalCROs(e.g.,IQVIA,Medpace)leadrecoverywithstrongordersandguidance;CDMOs(e.g.,Lonza)showresiliencethroughlong-termcontracts;PreclinicalCROs(Labcorp,CharlesRiver)andresearchservices(Danaher)arestillstabilizing,withimprovinginquiryorordercancellationrates.Wejudgetheindustryisintheearlystageofanupwardcycle,butthestrengthandsustainabilityoffullrecoverydependonthecontinuationofbiotechfinancingenthusiasm.ClinicalCRO:Benefitsfromlate-stagepipelineinvestment,highestorderandperformancevisibility.1)IQVIA:Dataispositive,leadershipstable.Netbook-to-billis1.15,RFPflowupabout20%YoY,cancellationsnormalizedto2.2billionUSD;2)Medpace:Strongestperformance,netbook-to-billat1.20,pre-backlogover3billionUSD,up30%YoY,providinghighvisibilityfor2026revenue,thusguiding‘lowdouble-digitrevenuegrowth’for2026;3)ICON:Demandrecovery,butprojectexecutionvolatilityaffectsshort-termperformance.Despitedouble-digitRFPgrowth,earlyconfirmationofprosperitybottom,0.9billionUSDprojectcancellationssuppressnetbook-to-billto1.02.CDMO:Long-termcontractsensurehighcertainty,lessaffectedbyshort-termfinancingfluctuations.1)Lonza:Stableperformance.Strategiclong-termcontractwithVacaville,‘earlybusinessonly10%ofrevenue’structureprovidesimmunitytobiotechfinancingfluctuations.CapacityinUSA,Europe,Asiapreferredbyclientsamiduncertainty;2)SamsungBiologics:Maintainsfull-yearrevenuegrowthguidanceat25%-30%,cumulativecontractsover20billionUSD,showingstrongorderreserveandgrowthvisibility;3)Synegene:Short-termprofitpressure,butnewglobalPhaseIIIclinicalorderandADC/PolypeptidenewcapacitytostartinH2,indicatingkeystageofcapabilityupgradeandorderramp-up.RiskWarning:Uncertaintyinthesustainabilityofbiotechfinancingrecovery,weakerthanexpectedinterestratecuts,USAPAMAlegislation,tariffpolicies,andgeopoliticalfactorsremainuncertain.Compendiumdisclosure：Fordisclosuresassociatedwitheachcompanymentionedherein,includingdisclosureofrisks,valuationmethodologiesandtargetpriceformation,ifany,pleaserefertothefullreportonourwebsite().請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款部分8of94