StudyReporton

RenewableEnergyDrivingGreen

Industrialization

PREPAREDFOR

DATE

November7,2025

REFERENCE0794652

CLIENT:GIobaIWindEnergyCounciI-GWEC

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StudyReportonRenewableEnergyDrivingGreenIndustrialization

0794652

FernandaBritto

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STUDYREPORTONRENEWABLEENERGYDRIVINGGREENINDUSTRIALIZATION

CLIENT:GlobalWindEnergyCouncil-GWEC

PROJECTNO:0794652DATE:November7,2025VERSION:02–EnglishVersionPagei

CONTENTS

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

1

1.INTRODUCTION

5

1.1METHODOLOGY

6

2.ENERGYTRANSITIONANDDECARBONIZATIONINBRAZIL

7

2.1CONCEPTSANDOBJECTIVES

7

2.2LEGALINSTRUMENTSANDCLIMATEPLANNINGINBRAZIL

8

3.DEMAND,SUPPLYANDELECTRICITYTRANSMISSIONANDDISTRIBUTIONSYSTEMS

9

3.1

ELECTRICITYDEMAND

9

3.2

ELECTRICITYSUPPLY

12

3.3

TRANSMISSIONANDDISTRIBUTION

15

4.

CLIMATEPLAN,SBCEANDCBAM

18

5.

OFFSHOREWINDENERGY

22

5.1

TECHNICALPOTENTIALANDLOCATIONALADVANTAGES

5.1.1NORTHEAST

5.1.2SOUTHEAST

5.1.3SOUTH

22

26

28

29

5.2

ENVIRONMENTALLICENSING

30

6.

REGULATORYFRAMEWORK

33

6.1

6.2

6.3

OFFSHOREWINDENERGYANDPORT-INDUSTRYINTEGRATIONGREENHYDROGEN

DATACENTER

33

34

35

7.

FINANCING

37

8.

CONCLUSION&TIMELINE

38

9.

REFERENCES

43

FOR

DEMANDESTIMATES,THEFOLLOWINGVALUESFROMTHE2050WERECONSIDERED:

NATIONALENERGYPLAN

1

ESTIMATESOFOFFSHOREWINDENERGYSUPPLY

3

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LISTOFTABLES

TABLE1PROJECTIONSOFTHEBRAZILIANELECTRICITYMATRIX:DEMAND,RENEWABLE

ENERGYTARGETS,ANDOFFSHOREWINDPARTICIPATION(2024–2050)2

TABLE2QUANTITATIVEEQUIVALENCEOFBRAZIL’SNDCFOR2035(NETEMISSIONS)8

TABLE3ELECTRICITYCONSUMPTIONGROWTHESTIMATES(EXPANSIONCHALLENGE

SCENARIO)10

TABLE4ESTIMATEDELECTRICITYCONSUMPTIONBYSECTOR(INTWH)11

TABLE5SHAREOFELECTRICITYSOURCESINBRAZIL13

TABLE6TYPESOFRENEWABLESOURCES:LIMITATIONSANDAVAILABILITY13

TABLE7SUMMARYOFIMPACTFULACTIONSANDCORRESPONDINGSECTORALTARGETS19

TABLE8CONNECTIONBETWEENBRAZILIANPORTSANDINDUSTRIALCOMPLEXES24

TABLE9MAINOFFSHOREWINDPROJECTSUNDERLICENSINGATIBAMA31

TABLE10COMPARATIVEANALYSISOFREGULATORYASPECTS:BRAZILVS.EUROPEANUNION

35

TABLE11CONSOLIDATEDANALYSISBYREGION:39

TABLE12OFFSHOREWINDSHAREOFTOTALRENEWABLESOURCES41

TABLE13OFFSHOREWINDSHAREBASEDONAPROPOSEDPERCENTAGE41

LISTOFFIGURES

FIGURE1POTENTIALELECTRICITYCONSUMPTIONCONSIDERINGTHEEXPANSION

CHALLENGEANDSTAGNATIONSCENARIOS10

FIGURE2SHARE(%)OFELECTRICITYCONSUMPTIONFROMSPECIALLOADSINTOTALCLASS

CONSUMPTION(TWH),ACROSSSCENARIOS11

FIGURE3COMPARATIVEANALYSISOFOFFSHOREWINDINSTALLEDCAPACITYEXPANSION15

FIGURE4DISTANCEFROMTHECENTRALPOINTOFOFFSHOREWINDFARMSUNDER

LICENSINGTOTHEBRAZILIANCOAST23

FIGURE5OFFSHOREWINDCOMPLEXES:PROJECTSWITHONGOINGENVIRONMENTAL

LICENSINGPROCESSESATIBAMA23

FIGURE6TECHNICALPOTENTIALFOROFFSHOREWINDENERGYINSELECTEDEMERGING

MARKETSUPTO200KMFROMTHECOAST24

FIGURE7LOCATIONOFGREENHYDROGENPLANTSINBRAZIL25

FIGURE8LOCATIONOFDATACENTERSINBRAZIL26

FIGURE9LOCATIONOFDATACENTERSINTHENORTHEAST27

FIGURE10,11LOCATIONOFDATACENTERSINTHESOUTHEASTERROR!BOOKMARKNOT

DEFINED.

FIGURE12LOCATIONOFDATACENTERSINTHESOUTHERROR!BOOKMARKNOTDEFINED.

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

STUDYREPORTONRENEWABLEENERGYDRIVINGGREENINDUSTRIALIZATION

CLIENT:GlobalWindEnergyCouncil-GWEC

PROJECTNO:0794652DATE:November7,2025VERSION:02–EnglishVersionPage1

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

ThestudyRenewableEnergyDrivingGreenIndustrialization,conductedbyERMfortheGlobalWindEnergyCouncil(GWEC),assessesthestrategicroleofoffshorewindenergyasasourcetosupplyadditionalconsumptionwithoutcompromisingtherenewablenatureoftheBrazilianenergymatrix.

StartingfromtheobservationthatBrazil’spowersectoralreadyhasahighlevelofdecarbonization—withapproximately89%ofinstalledcapacitybasedonrenewablesources—thereportpresentsthecentrallong-termchallenge:topreserveandexpandthiscleancharacteristicwhiletheelectricitymarketstrengthensitscontributiontothedecarbonizationofothereconomicsectors.

Brazil’snationalclimatetargetsreinforcetheneedforthistrajectory.Thecountry’sNationallyDeterminedContribution(NDC)setsgreenhousegasemissionreductiongoalsof48%by2025,53%by2030,andbetween59%and67%by2035(basedon2005levels),aimingforclimateneutralityby2050.Toenablethesecommitments,theFederalGovernmenthasstructuredsectoralmitigationplansundertheNationalPolicyonClimateChange(LawNo.12.187/2009),whichdriveinvestmentsandacceleratetheadoptionofrenewableandlow-carbonsolutionsinstrategicsectorssuchasenergy,industry,andtransportation.

Onthedemandside,theNationalEnergyPlan2050(PNE2050)projectssubstantialgrowth:electricitydemandcouldreachapproximately1,600TWhby2040and2,100TWhby2050—roughlythreetimesthedemandin2015(baseyear).Tosupportthislevelofconsumption,theinstalledcapacitywillneedtogrowbyaround50%,withprioritygiventorenewablesources.Atthesametime,therelativeshareofhydropowerisexpectedtodecline,whileotherrenewablesourcessuchaswindandsolarincrease.

Thisprocessfacessignificantstructuralchallenges:thegrowingpenetrationofintermittentsourcesimposesadditionalrequirementsonpowerbalancing—particularlyduringpeakperiods—andincreasestheneedforexpandedstoragecapacityandgridinfrastructuretoaccommodategeneration.Currentlimitationsinstorageandbackupsystems,insufficienttransmissionexpansion,andthehydropowersector’sinabilitytorespondaloneduringdroughtyearsarebottlenecksthatmaycompromisesupplyreliability.Additionally,theentryoflarge,continuousloads—suchasdatacentersandgreenhydrogen(H2V)projects—putspressureonthepowersystemforrobustsupplysolutionswithguaranteedenergyaccess.

Inthiscontext,offshorewindemergesasastrategicalternative.Brazil’stechnicalpotentialissignificant:thestudyScenariosfortheDevelopmentofOffshoreWindinBrazil(WorldBank,2024)estimatesthatoffshorewindgenerationoffersimportantcomplementaritytohydropower

—oftenbeingseasonallycountercyclicalandshowinglowerinterannualvariability—whichwouldallowoffshorewindtoactasanenergysecuritymeasureduringdroughtsandreducerelianceonfossilthermalplantsduringdroughtperiods.Thesamestudynotesthat“certainprojectionsindicatethatnethydropowergenerationcapacitywillnotexpandsignificantlyoverthenext25years,”andthathydropower’ssharecouldfallto46%by2050,creatinggrowthopportunitiesforothersources.

Operationally,offshorewind’scapacityfactorsandhourly/monthlygenerationprofilestendtocomplementothersources(hydro,onshorewind,solar)inmanyregions,improvingregionalenergyavailabilityandreducingtheriskofsupplydeficitsduringdemandpeaks.Atthesame

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

STUDYREPORTONRENEWABLEENERGYDRIVINGGREENINDUSTRIALIZATION

CLIENT:GlobalWindEnergyCouncil-GWEC

PROJECTNO:0794652DATE:November7,2025VERSION:02–EnglishVersionPage2

time,large-scaledeploymentpresentschallengesandopportunities:equipmenttransportlogistics,leveragingporthubsnearmajorconsumptioncenters(whichreducestransmissionlossesandfacilitatesintegration),andtheneedforaregulatoryframeworkthatremovesbarriersandensureslegalcertaintyforinvestments.Furthermore,thecombinationoflarge-scaleoffshorerenewablegenerationandportinfrastructurecouldpositionBrazilcompetitivelyfortheproduction,consumption,andexportofgreenhydrogen,transformingportsintoindustrialandlogisticshubsthatconnectgeneration,industry,andinternationalrenewableenergytraderoutes.

Thus,forBraziltomaintainandexpanditspredominantlycleanenergymatrixwhilemeetingprojecteddemandgrowthoverthecomingdecades,offshorewindmustbetreatedasastrategiccomponentofenergypolicy.Itspotentialcontribution—bothinscaleandincomplementaritywithhydropower—makesitavaluabletooltoreduceexposuretoseveredroughtsandtolessendependenceonfossilthermalplantsduringcriticalperiods.

Quantitatively,thecurrentestimatesindicatethatoffshorewindwillevolvefromamarginalcontributioninthe2020stoamaterialrolestartinginthemid-2030s.Basedonajointanalysisofsecondarysources(EnergyResearchOffice–EPEandWorldBank),thefollowingprojectionsforoffshorewindarepresented:

TABLE1PROJECTIONSOFTHEBRAZILIANELECTRICITYMATRIX:DEMAND,

RENEWABLEENERGYTARGETS,ANDOFFSHOREWINDPARTICIPATION

(2024–2050)

Years

Energydemand

(PDE2035ePNE2050)

PercentageofRenewableenergy(ClimatePlan)

Offshorewindpercentage

2015

464,7TWh

(BEN,2016)

106,1GW

75,5%(BEN,2016)

0%

2030

136GW

82,7%

0%(WorldBank2024)

2035

842TWh

192,2GW

86%

~4%(WorldBank2024)

2040

1.600TWh

366GW

DatanotincludedintheClimatePlan

Datanotavailable

2050

2.100TWh

482GW

100%(NDC2025).

~6,6%32GW

Theseresultsindicatethatoffshorewindcansimultaneouslyexpandtherenewablecapacityofthesystem,reducedependenceonfossilthermalplantsduringdroughtperiod,andofferarobustlong-termenergysecurityinstrument.

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

STUDYREPORTONRENEWABLEENERGYDRIVINGGREENINDUSTRIALIZATION

CLIENT:GlobalWindEnergyCouncil-GWEC

PROJECTNO:0794652DATE:November7,2025VERSION:02–EnglishVersionPage3

DEFINITIONSANDACRONYMS

Electricitydemand:Theamountofelectricalenergyrequiredbyconsumersoveragivenperiod.

Energydemand:Thetotalamountofenergy(electric,thermal,oil,gas,etc.)neededtosupporteconomicandsocialactivities.

Decarbonization:Theprocessofreducingfossilgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsintheenergymatrixandtheeconomy.

Greencorridors:LogisticsandcommercialrouteswithlowGHGemissions,typicallyinvolvingcleanenergyandtransportation.

Low-carboneconomy:Aneconomicmodelaimedatminimizinggreenhousegasemissions.

Renewableenergy:Energyderivedfromnaturalsourcesthatarecontinuouslyreplenished,suchassunlight,wind,water,andbiomass.

Cleanenergyorgeneration:Energyproductionwithlowemissionsofpollutantsandgreenhousegases.

Climateneutrality:AstateinwhichGHGemissionsareoffsetoreliminated,resultinginnonetclimateimpact.

Energymatrix:Thesetofenergysourcesusedbyacountryorregion.

Electricitymatrix:Asubsetoftheenergymatrixrepresentingonlythesourcesusedtogenerateelectricity.

Energytransition:Thegradualshiftfromafossilfuel-basedenergymatrixtorenewableandsustainablesources.

ANEEL–BrazilianElectricityRegulatoryAgency

BNDES–NationalBankforEconomicandSocialDevelopmentCBAM–CarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism

CCAT–HighVoltageDirectCurrent

CRVE–VoluntaryEmissionReductionCertificateDLS–SustainabilityLimitsDeclaration

EPE–EnergyResearchOffice

FNESol–NortheastConstitutionalFinancingFund–SolarLineGW–Gigawatt(1GW=1,000megawatts)

AverageGW–AveragepowergeneratedorconsumedovertimeGHG–GreenhouseGases

IBAMA–BrazilianInstituteofEnvironmentandRenewableNaturalResourcesIPI–TaxonIndustrializedProducts

ITMO–InternationallyTransferredMitigationOutcomes

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

STUDYREPORTONRENEWABLEENERGYDRIVINGGREENINDUSTRIALIZATION

CLIENT:GlobalWindEnergyCouncil-GWEC

PROJECTNO:0794652DATE:November7,2025VERSION:02–EnglishVersionPage4

MME–MinistryofMinesandEnergyMMA–MinistryoftheEnvironment

NDC–NationallyDeterminedContributionONS–NationalPowerSystemOperator

PATEN–NationalEnergyTransitionAccelerationPlanPCH–SmallHydropowerPlant

PELP–Long-TermStrategicPlan:apublicpolicyinstrumentusedtoguidethestrategicdevelopmentofacountry’senergysectoroveralong-termhorizon—typically30years.

PIS/COFINS–SocialIntegrationProgram/ContributionforSocialSecurityFinancingPDE–Ten-YearEnergyExpansionPlan

PNE–NationalEnergyPlan:strategicdocumentdevelopedbyBrazil’sEnergyResearchOffice(EPE)undertheguidanceoftheMinistryofMinesandEnergy(MME).Itoutlinesthelong-termvisionforthedevelopmentofBrazil’senergysector,typicallylookingahead30years.

SBCE–BrazilianEmissionsTradingSystem

TR–ReferenceRate(orRateofReturn,dependingoncontext)

TWh–Terawatt-hour.Aunitusedtoexpresslargevolumesofelectricitygenerationorconsumption,suchasacountry’sannualproduction.1TWhequals1billionkWh.

INTRODUCTION

STUDYREPORTONRENEWABLEENERGYDRIVINGGREENINDUSTRIALIZATION

CLIENT:GlobalWindEnergyCouncil-GWEC

PROJECTNO:0794652DATE:November7,2025VERSION:02–EnglishVersionPage5

1.INTRODUCTION

Thepresentstudy,conductedbyERMfortheGlobalWindEnergyCouncil(GWEC)andentitledRenewableEnergyDrivingGreenIndustrialization,providesatechnicalassessmentoftheroleofoffshorewindenergyasastrategicsolutiontomeetthegrowingdemandforelectricityinBrazil.Itaimstopreservetherenewablenatureoftheenergymatrixwhilecontributingtotheenergytransitionandsystemreliability.Theintegrationofoffshorewindischaracterizedbythecoexistenceoflegacyandemergingenergysources,drivenbypublicinfrastructureandsustainabilitypolicies,climatechange,andtechnologicalinnovation.Itsultimategoalistobuildalow-carboneconomywithgreaterenergyefficiency,reducedrelianceonfossilfuels,andenhancedvalueforrenewablesources.

Thisprojecthasadualobjective:first,toquantifyandanalyzetheevolutionofdemandforrenewableelectricityinBrazil—drivenbydecarbonizationprocessesinindustryandtransport,theexpansionofdatacenters,andotherenergy-intensiveloads—andsecond,toassessthetechnical,economic,andsystemicpotentialofoffshorewindenergyasastrategicsolutiontomeetthisdemand.Thisincludesitscomplementaritywithhydropower,therequirementsforsystemintegration(transmissionandstorage),anditsregulatory,logistical,andinfrastructureimplications.Accordingly,thestudyisstructuredaroundthefollowingworkstreams:

1.MappingRenewableEnergyDemand:Coverscurrentandprojectedelectricitydemand,availableandplannedsupplyfor2035and2050,theshareofrenewablesinthenationalelectricitymatrix,andaspectsrelatedtotransmissionanddistribution.Thissectionexaminesthemainchallengesandbottlenecksinthesectortomeetthegrowingelectrificationoftheeconomy,includingtheexpansionofgreenhydrogenprojectsanddatacenters.

2.ClimatePlanAssessment:Analyzessectoralmitigationplans,consideringtwocategoriesofactions:(i)impactfulmeasuresthatdirectlyandmeasurablyreducegreenhousegasemissions,suchasfossilfuelsubstitution,useofbiofuels,renewableelectrification,andenergyefficiency;and(ii)structuralmeasuresthatcreatetheinstitutional,regulatory,andtechnicalconditionsnecessarytoenabletheseactions.

3.OffshoreWindResourceAnalysis:Evaluatesgenerationpotential,requiredinfrastructure,synergieswithindustrial/technologicalhubs,greencorridors,andbenefitsfortheBrazilianelectricitymatrix.

4.RegulatoryFrameworkandLegalOpportunities:Reviewsthenationalenergytransitionaccelerationprogram,thelegalframeworkforoffshorewindandgreenhydrogen,andotherrelevanttechnicalregulationsinthesector.

5.IntegrationwithCarbonPricingMechanisms:DiscussestheroleofoffshorewindenergyintheBrazilianEmissionsTradingSystem(SBCE)andtheEuropeanUnion’sCarbonBorderAdjustmentMechanism(CBAM),consideringimpactsandopportunitiesforBrazil’sinternationalcompetitiveness.

6.Conclusion:Integratesthepreviousanalysestopresentaconsolidatedviewofthechallenges,opportunities,andstrategicpathwaysfortheintegrationofoffshorewindenergyintoBrazil’senergymatrixandinternationaleconomy.

7.Timeline:DescribestheprojectedevolutionofoffshorewindenergyinBrazilbasedonalltheanalysespresentedabove.ThisreportisintendedtohighlightthekeyelementsofthestudyandserveasthefoundationforthedevelopmentofPowerPointpresentationstobedeliveredatCOP30.

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1.1METHODOLOGY

Thisstudywasconductedexclusivelybasedonsecondarydataresearch.TheinformationusedwascollectedbetweenAugustandOctober2025frompublicsources,institutionaldatabases,technicalreports,andofficialdocumentsrelatedtoenergytransition,decarbonization,andoffshorewindenergyinBrazil.NoprimarydatawasproducedbytheERMteamforthisreport.

InternalconsultationswereheldwithERMexpertsinenergy,infrastructure,andpublicpolicytointerprettheavailabledataandensurethetechnicalconsistencyoftheanalyses.Theadoptedapproachenabledtheconsolidationofastrategicperspectiveontheroleofrenewableenergyingreenindustrialization,withafocusonoffshorewindenergyasadriverofsustainabledevelopment.

Theanalysesfollowedageneral-to-specificstructure,beginningwiththeconceptsofenergytransitionanddecarbonization,movingthroughanoverviewoftheelectricitysector’splanningandtheClimatePlan,andconcludingwiththeanalysisofoffshorewindenergy.

ENERGYTRANSITIONANDDECARBONIZATIONINBRAZIL

STUDYREPORTONRENEWABLEENERGYDRIVINGGREENINDUSTRIALIZATION

CLIENT:GlobalWindEnergyCouncil-GWEC

PROJECTNO:0794652DATE:November7,2025VERSION:02–EnglishVersionPage7

2.ENERGYTRANSITIONANDDECARBONIZATIONINBRAZIL

2.1CONCEPTSANDOBJECTIVES

Theenergytransitionisacomplexandgradualprocess,withvaryingpacesacrossregions.Itismarkedbythecoexistenceoflegacyandemergingenergysourcesanddrivenbyfactorssuchaspublicinfrastructureandsustainabilitypolicies,climatechange,andtechnologicalinnovation.Itsoverarchinggoalistobuildalow-carboneconomywithgreaterenergyefficiency,reducedrelianceonfossilfuels,andincreasedvalueforrenewablesourcessuchassolarandwind.

ThestructureofBrazil’selectricitysectorovertimehasledtoahighlevelofdecarbonization,withapproximately89%ofinstalledcapacitycomingfromrenewablesources.Themainchallenge,especiallyinthelongterm,istomaintainthisrenewablecharacteristicandenhancethesector’spotentialtocontributetothedecarbonizationofotherareasoftheeconomy.

Itisimportanttoemphasizethattheenergytransitionmustbejust—meaningitshouldnotbeunderstoodsolelyasatechnologicalshiftbutalsoguidedbysocialobjectives.Thisinvolvesrecognizingandaddressinghistoricalinequalitiesinenergyaccess,ensuringthatdecarbonizationprogressesalongsidesocialinclusion.

TheconceptofaJustEnergyTransitionoriginatedinNorthAmericanlaborunionsinthe1970sandlaterexpandedtotheclimatechangecontext.In2015,itwasformallyrecognizedintheParisAgreement,encompassingmultipledimensionssuchasinequality,vulnerability,andopportunity,andlinkingtheenergytransitiontoabroaderagendaofhumanrights,socialinclusion,andequity.

InBrazil,thepriorityistwofold:todecarbonizetheenergymatrixandsimultaneouslyuniversalizeaccesstoqualityelectricity

1.

Althoughthecountryachievedahighlevelofelectricityaccess(99.8%householdcoveragein2022

2)

,disparitiespersistduetolackofinfrastructure,quantity,quality,andaffordability.Thus,thereisadistinctionbetweenbeingconnectedandhavinganadequateenergystandardofliving.ThisrealitycanbeanalyzedthroughthelensofDecentLivingStandards(DLS),whichdefinetheminimumamountofenergyrequiredtoensureadignifiedlife—encompassinghousing,mobility,nutrition,health,education,andcommunication.BasedonanalysesfromresearchinstitutionssuchastheInternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis(IIASA),Brazil’stotalfinalenergyconsumptionisslightlybelow20GJ/capita/year,placingthecountryontheminimumthresholdoftheoperationalrequirementof19to21GJ/capita/yeardefinedasthethresholdtoguaranteeminimumdignifiedservices(includingmobilityandhousing)fortheentirepopulation.

RegardingdecarbonizationinBrazilianpolicy,atCOP29thecountryestablishedanNDCtoreduceitsnetgreenhousegasemissionsby59%to67%by2035(basedon2005levels).Toachievethis,theelectricitysectorwillplayakeyrole:despitealreadyhavingapredominantlyrenewablematrix(around89%ofinstalledcapacity),decarbonizingtheeconomywillrequireasignificantexpansionofcleangenerationtosupportthegrowthofnewhigh-demandsegments,suchas

1Qualityenergyreferstothedeliveryofelectricityinacontinuous,safemannerandinaccordancewithestablishedtechnicalstandards,ensuringtheproperfunctioningofequipmentandthesatisfactionofendusers.Inthecontextofenergydistribution,qualityismeasuredbyindicatorsthatassessservicecontinuity,themainonesbeingSAIDI(SystemAverageInterruptionDurationIndex–theaveragedurationofpowersupplyinterruptionsperconsumerunit)andSAIFI(SystemAverageInterruptionFrequencyIndex–theaveragefrequencyofinterruptionsperconsumerunit).

2Accordingtothe2022DemographicCensus,conductedbytheBrazilianInstituteofGeographyandStatistics(IBGE),Brazil’spopulationin2022was203,062,512inhabitants,whichmeansthatapproximately400,000peoplelackedaccesstoelectricity.TheseindividualsareprimarilylocatedintheLegalAmazon,inruralareasandisolatedcommunities.

ENERGYTRANSITIONANDDECARBONIZATIONINBRAZIL

STUDYREPORTONRENEWABLEENERGYDRIVINGGREENINDUSTRIALIZATION

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PROJECTNO:0794652DATE:November7,2025VERSION:02–EnglishVersionPage8

improvedpublicservicedelivery,datacenters,anelectrifiedvehiclefleet,andindustrialtransitionitself.

TABLE2QUANTITATIVEEQUIVALENCEOFBRAZIL’SNDCFOR2035(NETEMISSIONS)

ReferenceYear

TargetDescription

ReductionPercentage(vs.2005baseline)

PermittedNetEmissionsLevel

BaseYear(2005)

ReferenceNet

Emissions

0%

≈2.57GtCO?e(≈2,570MtCO?e)

TargetYear(2035)

–Floor

MinimumUnconditionalCommitment

59%

1.05GtCO?e(1,050MtCO?e)

TargetYear(2035)

–Ceiling

MaximumPotentialCommitment

67%

0.85GtCO?e(850MtCO?e)

Source:Brazil,2024.

*Note:TablepreparedbasedonthedocumentNationallyDeterminedContribution(NDC).

TheBraziliangovernmentprojectsrenewableenergyparticipationtargetsinits

decarbonizationplans,withoffshorewindenergyemergingasoneofthepillarsofthisstrategy(EPE/MME,2020).Inadditiontomeetingrisingdomesticconsumptionanduniversalizing

access,theexpansionofrenewablecapacityalsopavesthewayforenergyexportsacrossvariousvectors,respondingtoEurope’sgrowingneedtoimportlow-carbonhydrogen.

2.2LEGALINSTRUMENTSANDCLIMATEPLANNINGINBRAZIL

Between2024and2025,Brazilhasbeenconsolidatingaregulatoryframeworkfortheenergytransition,withparticularemphasisonthecreationoftheNationalEnergyTransitionPolicy

(PNTE).ThePNTEestablishesguidelinestoachieveclimateneutralityby2050,structuring

sectoralplans,financinginstruments,andinnovationincentives.Thelegislationalsopromotesintegrationamongministriesandregulatoryagencies,aimingtocoordinatethetransformationoftheenergymatrixinaplannedandsecureman