COUGHLINASSOCIATES&OBJECTIVEANALYSIS?2024,CoughlinAssociatesii?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVEANCoverArtfromLeti,usedwithEntirecontentscopyright2024Couserved.NopartofthispublicationmaybratesCopyrightAct,withouttheprirCoughlinAssociates.RequestsAssociates,9460CarmelRoad,Atascadero,CA93422,Box440,LosGatos,CA,95031-0440,Contents.................................................................................................... 1 6 8 WhyEmergingMemoriesarePopu ScalingLimitsForEntren EmergingMemoriesforRadiationTolerance AlternativestoUsingEmergingMemories PotentialCost/GBAdvantages WhichApplicationswantEmergingMemoriesF CurrentEmergingMemoryApplica PersonalFitnessMo Automotive HowaNewMemoryLayerCanImproveComputerPerfo HowPersistenceChangestheMemory/StorageHie ChangesinComputerMe ChangingtheDDRStandardforP In-MemoryComputingFor FewerConstraintsOnMCUProgra TheCrucialImportanceOfTheEconomiesOfScale HowScaleEconomiesUnderminedIntel’s“Optane Intel’s“Optane”3D UnderstandingBitSelect ResistiveRAM,ReRAM,RRAM,Memri ReRAMDeviceFunction ?2024,CoughlinAssociates&O?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVE ReRAMandArtificialIntell FerroelectricRAM,FeRAM, FTJ,theFerroelectricTu FerroelectricMaterials:PZT,BST,a Antiferroelectrics TheFutureofFRAM PhaseChangeMemory(PCM,PRAM, 3DXPointMemory:Int OperationofPCM MRAM(MagneticRAM),STTMRAM(Spin AntiferromagneticMemory( VoltageGatedSpinOr MRAMinArtificialIntel ?2024,CoughlinAssociates&O?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVEMemcapacitorandMemindu PolymericFerroelectricRAM(PFRAM) III-VFloatingGate“U ElectrochemicalRAM ExtremeUV(EUV)Tec HighNumericalApert FutureLithography Nano-ImprintLithography CurrentStateofDiscreteEmergingMemories CurrentStateofEmbeddedEmergingMemories EmergingMemoriesand EmergingMemoryProcessE MRAMandSTTMRAMProces PhysicalVaporDeposition Photolithography(Patte PCM,ReRAM,andOTSManufacturingEqui EstimatesofEmergingMemoryCapitalEquipmentDemand IonBeamEtchingEq MagneticAnnealingEq PhysicalVaporDepositionEqui ?2024,CoughlinAssociates&O?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVESummaryofEmergingMemoryEquipmentDemand MemoryAndApplicationsCompanies&Organiz AdvancedMemoryTechnology(A AvalancheTechnology ChineseAcademyofSciences(中國(guó) CNSE(CollegeofNanoscaleScienceandEngineering) Cobham-Aeroflex EindhovenUniversityofTechnology(TU/e) FerroelectricMemoryCompany FertBeijingInstituteofBeihangUniversity ?2024,CoughlinAssociates&O?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVEGreenWavesTechnolo InstituteofMicroelectronics(ChineseAcademyofSciences) IntegratedDeviceTechnolo JiangsuAdvancedMemory(江蘇時(shí) NaMLab Nantero NationalTsingHuaUni NEC Netsol Nextorage Numem Numonyx Nuvoton NVE NXP ?2024,CoughlinAssociates&O?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVE RelianceMemory(合肥?？莆㈦?RenesasElectronics ShanghaiCiyuInforma SiEn(QingDao)IntegratedCirc SUNY(StateUniversityofNewYork) UniversityatAlbanyCollegeofNanoscaleScienceandEngineering(CNSE) WeebitNano ?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVE HangzhouHFCSemiconductor(杭州積 UMC-UnitedMicroelectronicsCorporat Accretech LeuvenInstruments MicroSense NanomagneticsInstruments Neoark Nikon ?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVE?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVE Veeco FurtherReading ?2024,CoughlinAssociates&O?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVEFigure1.MemoryDensityandP 10 11Figure3.RoughComparisonofEstablishedandEmergingMemoryTypes 12Figure4.3DNANDFlashMemoryTop 16Figure5.Toshiba'sBiCS 17Figure6.CostofTransitionfromOneNANDManufacturingProcesstotheNext 18Figure7.NANDFlashChipTechnologyRo 20Figure8.Intel'sAntiferroelectric 21 23Figure10.Historically 24 25 26 29Figure14.AnAlphaParticleDragsElectronsOutoftheFl 30Figure15.Infineon’sVisionofFutureExternalFla 31 34Figure17.IBMFlashco 35Figure18.Mangstor 36 37Figure20.Garmin'sVers 37Figure21.GarminFenix7 38Figure22.LucidAirGrandTouringAutomobile 39Figure23.RimacNevera 39 40Figure25.Memory/StoragePriceperGigabytevs.Perfor 42Figure26.ProgressionofStorageTechnologi 45Figure28.GordonMoore'sEstimationofContributionsfromTransistorDimensions, 47 48Figure30.AMDEPYC7702withI/O 49 51Figure32.Intel'sDDR-TInte 53Figure33.LargeCXL-BasedSystemwith 54Figure34.NANDFlashPricesCrossedBelowDRAMin 56Figure35.2004NANDGigabyt 57Figure36.EstimatedIntel3DXPointQuart 59Figure37.EstimatedOptaneRevenues 60Figure38.Intel'sViewoftheMemory-StorageHierarchy 62Figure39.RedisVirtualMachine 63?2024,CoughlinAssociates&?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVEFigure40.EmergingMemoryCompetitive 65Figure41.BitSelectors-3-Terminal 68Figure42.OverheadViewofaSimpleCrosspoint 69Figure43.ReadingWhenOn 69Figure44.SneakPathsOccur 70Figure45.SpacePenaltyofa3-Ter 71Figure46.Bidirectiona 72 73 75Figure49.StackedCr 76Figure50.BitCostasaFunctionofLaye 77Figure51.BitCostasaFunctionofLayerCount-3DN 78Figure52.ReRAMFilamentCellCon 82 83Figure54.ReRAMResistan 83 84Figure56.TaOxOxygenVacancyStructureof 85Figure57.CurrentLevelsandVoltag 85Figure58.Cross-sectionPhotoofWeebitNanoReRAM 86 87Figure60.WheretheMemristorFitsintheWorldofPassiveComponents 88Figure61.CrossSectionofHPE'sMemris 89 90Figure63.ReRAMCMOSIntegr 91Figure64.Two-MaskReRAMElementinTungstenVias 92Figure65.Cross-SectionSE 93 93Figure67.ASimplifiedViewofaNeuralNetw 94Figure68.I/VCurveofWeebitNanoReRAM 97Figure69.MCUwithWeebit 98Figure70.TetraMem'sMX100AnalogNeuralNetworkChip,Basedon 99Figure71.MicrophotographofIntrinsic'sReRAMArray 100Figure72.EarlyFerroelectricMemo 102Figure73.HysteresisCurveofFerroelectricMemory 103Figure74.FRAMPerovskiteDisplac 104Figure75.TopologyofFRAM,FeFET,andFerroelectricTunnelJunction 105 106Figure77.FeFETTransi 106Figure78.Micron's32GbFerroelectricN 109Figure79.SEMPhotoofMicron'sStackableFerroelectric 109Figure80.PublicationCountforF 110Figure81.Amorphous,Crystalline,andFerroelectricHafniu 111Figure82.TypicalDimensionsofPZTandHfOCapacitors 112Figure83.MemoryPropertiesofFerroelectricHafniumOxide 113 115Figure85.3DHafniumOxideFRAMBuiltUsin 116?2024,CoughlinAssociates&?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVEFigure86.AntiferroelectricHysteresisLoop 117 119Figure88.CrosspointMe 122Figure89.CharacteristicsoftheRead,WriteandEraseCycleforPCMMate 123 124Figure91.CrossSection 124Figure92.STMicroelectronics'Transistor-Select 125Figure93.Hysteresis 126Figure94.ComparingtheThicknessofaConventional 127Figure95.BasicCellDiagra 133Figure96.ToggleMRAM 134 135Figure98.GlobalFoundries’Roadmapfor 136Figure99.Samsung’sMRAMIn-MemoryProcessin 138 139 141 141Figure103.In-PlaneandP 142 142 143Figure106.Everspin 144 145 146 147 147 148 149Figure113.BitDimensionsofIdealMRAM,DRAM,PlanarNANDFl 150 151 153 153Figure118.IBM'sRace 156Figure119.LaboratoryEmbodimentofIBM'sR 157 157 161Figure122.NumemDNNDevic 162 163 163 164Figure126.TheMemcapacitorandMeminductor 167 168?2024,CoughlinAssociates&?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVE 169 171Figure130.ProfileofUniversityofLancasterUltraRAMbitcell 172Figure131.Electroch 173 176 176Figure134.RemovetheOriginalPatte 176Figure135.CladtheS 177Figure136.RemovetheDoubledPattern.TheRem 177 178 178 180 181 184 185 185Figure144.LargestMemoryDensitiesPresentedat 192 194 197 198 201 202 202 203 205 206 207 207 208 208Figure158.TokyoElectronEx 209Figure159.UlvacENRONEX 210 211 212 212 213Figure164.CanonAnelvaNc8000 214Figure165.HitachiHighT 215 217Figure167.LamResearchKi 217 218 219Figure170.UlvacNE-7800HNon-Vol 220?2024,CoughlinAssociates&?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVE 220Figure172.ASMLDeepUV 222 222 223 224Figure176.HProbe3DHig 226Figure177.KeysightTechnolog 227Figure178.MicroSense(KLA 228 229Figure180.AppliedMaterial 231 232 236 238 240Figure185.ThreeScenar 242Figure186.ThreeScen 243Figure187.ThreeScenariEmbedded)AnnualWaferConsumption2023-2034 245Figure188.ThreeScenarios 246Figure189.ThreeScenario 250Figure191.ThreeScenariosofMR 252Figure192.ThreeScenariosof 254Figure193.ThreeScenariosofMRAM 256Figure194.ThreeScenariosofEmergingMem 258Figure195.CombinedTestand 260 261Figure197.EmergingMemo 263Figure198.ThreeScenariosof 264?2024,CoughlinAssociates&?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVE 43 50 55 160Table5.CellSizes 164Table6.CellSizeComparisonofProduc 165Table7.SummaryofEmergingMemoryTechnologies 193Table8.MRAMProcessEquipmen 204Table9.TokyoElectronMagneticAnnealingProduc 225 233 236 237Table13.AssumptionsforBa 239 240 241 243Embedded)AnnualWaferConsumption(Un 244Table18.ThreeScenari 246Table19.ThreeScenarios 247Table20.MRAMIonBeamEtchingEquipmentBaselineUnitShipment 251Table21.MRAMIonBeamEtchingEquipmentBaseline 251Table22.EmergingMemoryPatterningEquipmentBaselineUnitShipment 253Table23.EmergingMemoryPatterningEquipmentBaseline 253Table24.MRAMMagneticAnnealingEquipmentBaselineUnitShipment 255Table25.MRAMMagneticAnnealingEquipmentBaseline 255Table26.EmergingMemoryPhysicalVaporDepositionEquipmentBase 257Table27.EmergingMemoryPhysicalVaporDepositionEq 257Table28.TestandOtherEquipmentBaselineUni 258?2024,CoughlinAssociates&?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVETable29.Test&OtherEquipmentPriceEstimates 259Table30.Test&OtherEquipmentBaselineSpen 259Table31.CombinedEquipmentBaselineU 262Table32.CombinedEquipmentBaselineSpending 262Table33.EmergingMemoryFoundry 265Table34.SellersofEmergingMemoryBased 266?2024,CoughlinAssociates&?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVESRAM,andotherpopularresourcestodevelopnewmemorytechnologies.Themostpromisprovideamemorythatretainsinformationwhenpowereddown.Noofferenergysavingsthatdevicesandalsoforenergysavings,andperforThisreportcoversPCM,ReRAM,FRAforflashmemory,butfutureNANDflashmemoryisanticipatedtlayer-countincreasesandotherlowerthantoday,allowingmanyyearstopassbeforeareplacementisrequired.Thus,atransitionfromNANDflashtosomeothertechnologyisnotexpectedterminationofitsOptane3DXPointcampaignandhadseenthesamephenomenonplayoutbeforewithNANDflash,whosehighvolumedroveitscostsbelowthatofDRAM.ThereportdelvesdeeplyintotheimpactboththesuccessofNANDflashandthefailureofOptaneprovedthatwapproach10%ofthevolumeofacompetingtechnologyinordertoreachcostparity.EmbeddedNORflashhasbeanemergingmemorytechnology,yieldingtotoggle-modemagneticRAM(MRAM)andwithMRAM.WithinthDRAM,wellbeforeReRAMreplacesNANDflashmemowillgraduallyresultinlowerprices,andlowpricesarettotheacceptanceofanreplacingvolatilememorywithhigh-speed,high-endurancenonvobolstersthepopularitythesetechnologieproductioncosts(andthuspurchaseprices).applications,despitetheuseofmaterialsthatarepoorlymanagedinaproductionenvironment.HfOFRAMofferspromisebyusingamaterialthatiswell-understoodintoday’sFinFETfabs,andthismightallowtThesenewmemorytypesenablenewsystemconfiguratiounavailable.Anonvolatilemainmemoryandcachememoryinacomputerwillreducepowerusagedirectlyaswellasenablenewpowersavingmodes,providefasterrecove?2024,CoughlinAssociates&?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVEfrompoweroff,andenablemorestablecomputefunctions,couldbeusedtomakefuturemicroprocessors.Acombinationofspin-basedlogicandspin-basedmemorywouldbeonlynaturaltoenableveryefficientin-memorycomputing.Manyoftheemergingmechips,whichmaybecomethebasisforfutureAI-enabledendpointdeviclogicchip,replacingNORfrequentlybeingreplacedwithMRAMandReRAM.Single-transistorMRAMcelnowcompetingwithmulti-transistorSRAM,todramaticallyreducethenumberofSeveralenterpriseandconsumerdevicescurrentlyuseandthistrendwillcontinMRAMprocesseshavealreadybeendevelopedonconventionalCMOSlogicprocesses,allowingthemtobebuiltdirectlyontopofCMOSlogicwafers,usingfeweradditionalmaskstepsthanamoreconventionalflashmemory.Theumemorycostpergigabyte($/GB)approachesthatofSRAM,thisreplacementcouldtosignificantmarketexpansanestimated340TBin2023to8.46EBin2034bulkofthisrapidrevenuegrowthwillbesupportedofSRAM,NORflashandsomeDRAM.theMRAMmarket.WhileMRAMcanbebuiltonstandardCMOtechnologieswillrequiretheirowncomplementofadditionaleqidenticaltotoolsthatarealreadyinwidespreaduGrowingdemandforemergwithabaselineprojectedspendingof$2.4B.?2024,CoughlinAssociates&?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVEAstheInternetofThingsbuildsomeasurementsofdatathatwaspreviouslyunmeasured,thewillgrowexponentialThisgrowthwillnotbematchedwithincreasesinadoptionofnewwirelessstandardslike5G.Inresponsetothismismatch,anincreasingamountofprocessingwillbeperformedattheebenefitthemostfromtoday’snascentadoptionofemergingmemorytechnologies.Figure1providesaroughideaofthememorydensityandpowerconsumptionneedsofanumberofmodernapplicationtypes.Figure1.MemoryDensityandPowerRequirementsbyASource:ObjectiveAnalthisvastamountofinformmatchofprocessorspeedwithcommunicationbusspeedsaswellasmemorydataraItalsorequireslatenciesthatareadequatefortheapplicationbein?2024,CoughlinAssociates&?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVESRAMfailtokeeppacewiththerelentlessmarchofMoore’sLaw.Thisreportinvestigatesthandevaluateseachfromtheviewpointofcompetitionwmagneticharddiskdrivesandflashmemorproducts.Othertechnologiesincludingspin-orbi(ReRAM)areinearlierstagesofpilotorproductionramps.nanotubeRAM(NRAM)arestillprimarilylaboratorydemonstrations.recentforayintotheemeradoptionthatcannotbeignorThisreportdiscussestheleadingsolid-statememoryFigure2.SolidStateMemory/StorageTechnolSource:ObjectiveAnal?2024,CoughlinAssociates&?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVEThefollowingemergingmemorytechnologiesarediscussedinthi1.MRAM:Memori2.PCM:Memoriesbasedonphasechangesthroughthermale3.ReRAM:Memoriesthatuseio4.FRAM:Electricfielddrivenmem5.NewnonvolatiletechnologiessuchasCarbonNanoThechartofFigure3providesanelementaryoverviewofthefirstthreeoftheseThisreportwillstudyallofthetechnologiesmentionedaboveinconsiderabledepth.Figure3.RoughComparisonofEstablishedandEmergingMemoryTypesSource:IBM.UsedwithThisreportaddressesthecharacteristicsofeachnonvolatiletechnologyfromthe2.Presentcommercialstateofthetechnology3.Reliabilityand/o?2024,CoughlinAssociates&?2024,CoughlinAssociates&OBJECTIVETwofundamentalapplicationtycalledembeddedapplicaticost.Asaconsequence,NANDflashisnotusedforinternalmemfriendlycounterpart.ThereportprovidessomedetailwhyonememorycancometodisplaThereportthenpresentstheCoughlinAssociatesanalysisofMRAMprodutechnologiesanddemandforthesetocharacteristicsofcapitalequipmentusedforMRAMmanufacturing.Thisdemandestimateisbasedonthebest-caseoftheabovescenariosforMRAMmarketacceptance.memorytechnologydevelopment,production,andcapitalequipmeThereportpresentsdatacollectedthroughcarefulinterviewsparticipantsonallstheemergingmemorymarket:Developers,vendors,licensorsandlicensees,toolmakers,foundries,etc.DatawascollectedbyCoughfromawidevarietyofsourcesbytheauthors.Forprimaryandsecondarysources,alongwithanalysisofmemorychippricinganjudgmentwascalledupontoexpanduponthedsources.concerningforecasts,expectedtechnologauthorswishtoexpresso