Presentation:

冬季步入嚴(yán)寒期，春暖花開或在望Winter's

ChillSetsIn,Spring'sWarmth

on

the

Horizon30

Dec2024投資要點(diǎn)?

工業(yè)金屬：25年積極的財(cái)政政策支撐國(guó)內(nèi)需求。12月20日-12月27日，LME銅、鋁、鋅、錫價(jià)漲跌幅分別為+0.4%、+0.6%、+2.3%、+0.9%，SHFE銅、鋁、鋅、錫價(jià)周漲跌幅分別為+0.4%、-0.9%、+0.1%、+0.1%；12月27日LME銅、鋁、鋅、錫價(jià)格分別為8982美元/噸、2557美元/噸、3040美元/噸、2.89萬美元/噸。宏觀方面，全國(guó)財(cái)政工作會(huì)議指出2025年將實(shí)施更積極的財(cái)政政策，加碼用力，打好政策“組合拳”；提高財(cái)政赤字率并安排更大規(guī)模政府債券，優(yōu)化支出結(jié)構(gòu)，防范化解風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，為中國(guó)需求前景提供進(jìn)一步支撐。銅基本面方面，滬銅周度社庫(kù)呈小幅回升姿態(tài)，累積增加4.67%至7.42萬噸，但整體庫(kù)存體量仍處在2月初最低位，繼續(xù)給予銅價(jià)底部支撐。鋁基本面方面，據(jù)SMM，12月26日中國(guó)鋁錠社會(huì)庫(kù)存49萬噸，較上周四去庫(kù)3.8萬噸；成本端，氧化鋁供應(yīng)偏緊格局較之前好轉(zhuǎn)。建議關(guān)注：紫金礦業(yè)、洛陽(yáng)鉬業(yè)、中國(guó)鋁業(yè)、天山鋁業(yè)、云鋁股份、中國(guó)有色礦業(yè)、金誠(chéng)信、銅陵有色等公司。?

能源金屬：Arcadium

Lithium股東批準(zhǔn)與力拓交易。

12月20日-12月27日，電池級(jí)碳酸鋰、氫氧化鋰、LME鎳、長(zhǎng)江鈷價(jià)漲跌幅分別為-0.1%、0.4%、-0.3%、-1.7%。據(jù)SMM，Arcadium

Lithium股東已投票贊成以67億美元的價(jià)格將公司出售給澳大利亞礦業(yè)巨頭力拓。該交易預(yù)計(jì)將于2025年中期完成，屆時(shí)力拓將躍居全球第三大鋰礦商，僅次于Albemarle和SQM。我們認(rèn)為這反映了鋰資源作為戰(zhàn)略金屬，在礦業(yè)巨頭的資產(chǎn)組合中不可替代的地位。建議關(guān)注：贛鋒鋰業(yè)、天齊鋰業(yè)、永興材料、江特電機(jī)、中礦資源；華友鈷業(yè)、格林美等公司。?

黃金白銀：降息預(yù)期調(diào)整已相對(duì)充分，價(jià)格相對(duì)堅(jiān)實(shí)。12月27日上海金交所黃金、白銀價(jià)格分別為618.55元/克和7.58元/克，周漲跌幅分別為1.10%和2.33%。降息預(yù)期調(diào)整充分，預(yù)計(jì)金價(jià)仍有支撐，據(jù)Wind測(cè)算，截至12月28日，市場(chǎng)對(duì)于美國(guó)明年8次議息會(huì)議僅預(yù)期降息1.5次，25年12月隱含利率3.95%。經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)方面，美國(guó)11月PCE物價(jià)指數(shù)年率2.4%，高于前值2.3%；核心PCE物價(jià)指數(shù)年率2.8%，與前值持平。推薦：山金國(guó)際、山東黃金、招金礦業(yè)、中金黃金、赤峰黃金、盛達(dá)資源和湖南黃金；建議關(guān)注：四川黃金、玉龍股份等。?

稀土和銻、鍺、鈾等小金屬、新材料：氧化鐠釹價(jià)格環(huán)比+1.4%。12月20日-12月27日，氧化鐠釹、氧化鏑、氧化鋱價(jià)格漲跌幅為+1.4%、+7.8%、+1.6%。建議關(guān)注：北方稀土、中國(guó)稀土、金力永磁、湖南黃金、金鉬股份等公司。?

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示：經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇不及預(yù)期；新能源車、地產(chǎn)需求不及預(yù)期；主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體貨幣政策收緊過度；國(guó)際地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；項(xiàng)目建設(shè)不及預(yù)期。2有色金屬價(jià)格、庫(kù)存數(shù)據(jù)一覽2024/12/20

2024/12/272024/12/20

2024/12/27價(jià)格數(shù)據(jù)產(chǎn)品LME銅LME鋁LME鋅LME鉛單位美元/噸美元/噸美元/噸美元/噸萬美元/噸萬元/噸萬元/噸萬元/噸萬元/噸萬元/噸萬元/噸元/噸萬元/噸萬元/噸萬元/噸萬美元/噸萬元/噸萬元/噸元/鎳期初價(jià)格

期末價(jià)格

漲跌幅價(jià)格數(shù)據(jù)產(chǎn)品鐠釹氧化物鉬精礦:45%-50%銻單位期初價(jià)格39.23期末價(jià)格

漲跌幅89442542297319812.8789822557304019662.890.4%0.6%2.3%-0.8%0.9%0.4%-0.9%0.1%-2.9%0.1%-0.8%0.3%-0.1%0.6%0.4%-0.3%2.0%-0.5%0.0%-1.7%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.0%-0.2%-0.3%萬元/噸元/噸度萬元/噸萬元/千克萬元/千克萬元/噸元/千克元/千克元/千克萬元/噸萬元/噸元/千克39.783605.0014.000.171.4%0.0%0.0%7.8%1.6%0.0%3605.0014.00氧化鏑0.15LME錫氧化鋱0.550.56SHFE銅SHFE鋁SHFE鋅SHFE鉛SHFE錫A00鋁7.387.41稀土和銻、鍺、鈾等小金屬、新材料黑鎢精礦:≥55%鍺錠:≥50Ω二氧化鍺:≥99.999%海綿鈦≥99.6%鎂錠14.0414.04工業(yè)金屬2.001.9818150.0013450.0045.5017450.00

-3.9%12750.00

-5.2%2.522.521.741.6945.501.790.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%24.261.9924.291.971.79精鉍:≥99.99%精銦:≥99.995%7.157.15氧化鋁4935.007.594949.007.582475.002475.00電池級(jí)碳酸鋰工業(yè)級(jí)碳酸鋰氫氧化鋰LME鎳2024/12/20

2024/12/27期初庫(kù)存

期末庫(kù)存

漲跌幅7.267.30庫(kù)存數(shù)據(jù)能源金屬產(chǎn)品LME鎳SHFE鎳LME銅單位萬噸萬噸萬噸萬噸萬噸萬噸萬噸萬噸萬噸萬噸萬噸噸6.926.9516.143.5427.237.0916.213.610.4%2.1%1.541.53SHFE鎳硫酸鎳12.242.9312.482.9127.277.420.1%4.7%能源金屬SHFE陰極銅SHFE國(guó)際銅LME鋁945.0017.5010.9514.00945.0017.2010.9514.002615.9529.652636.5029.981.201.16-3.5%-1.4%-5.2%-3.8%-24.7%-1.8%-0.4%1.1%高鎳鐵66.2221.2325.414.0125.255.2065.2720.1224.453.0224.795.18長(zhǎng)江鈷萬元/噸SHFE鋁LME鋅SHFE鋅LME鉛SHFE鉛LME錫SHFE錫MB鈷：標(biāo)準(zhǔn)級(jí)

美元/磅MB鈷：合金級(jí)

美元/磅工業(yè)金屬倫敦現(xiàn)貨黃金

美元/盎司

2616.45倫敦現(xiàn)貨白銀

美元/盎司

28.80美元/盎司

2640.50美元/盎司

30.08貴金屬COMEX黃金4760683448106722COMEX銀噸-1.6%3資料：Wind，HTI目錄1.

申萬有色指數(shù)12/20-12/27下跌0.7%，銅領(lǐng)漲2.

主要子板塊跟蹤（12/20-12/27）2.1

工業(yè)金屬：LME銅價(jià)上漲0.4%2.2

能源金屬：電池級(jí)碳酸鋰價(jià)格下跌0.1%2.3

黃金白銀：COMEX黃金價(jià)下跌0.2%2.4

稀土和銻、鍺、鈾等小金屬：鐠釹氧化物價(jià)格上漲1.4%3.

重要事件：中礦資源擬投建銅礦項(xiàng)目和多金屬綜合循環(huán)回收項(xiàng)目4.

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示4申萬有色指數(shù)12/20-12/27下跌0.7%，銅領(lǐng)漲圖：申萬一級(jí)行業(yè)周漲跌幅（2024.12.20-2024.12.27）4%2%0%-0.61%-0.68%-2%-4%-6%-8%銀行石油石化公用事業(yè)交通運(yùn)輸家用電器非銀金融汽車通信綜合食品飲料農(nóng)林牧漁煤炭電力設(shè)備建筑材料萬得全電子有色金屬鋼鐵基礎(chǔ)化工機(jī)械設(shè)備建筑裝飾環(huán)保醫(yī)藥生物商貿(mào)零售輕工制造美容護(hù)理房地產(chǎn)紡織服飾計(jì)算機(jī)社會(huì)服務(wù)傳媒圖：申萬有色二級(jí)行業(yè)周漲跌幅（2024.12.20-2024.12.27）圖：部分申萬有色三級(jí)行業(yè)和鋰礦指數(shù)、稀土指數(shù)周漲跌幅（2024.12.20-2024.12.27）0%2%0%-2%-4%-2%金屬新材料工業(yè)金屬貴金屬小金屬能源金屬銅黃金磁性材料鋁稀土指數(shù)鋰礦指數(shù)資料：Wind，HTI5有色金屬板塊12/20-12/27東陽(yáng)光領(lǐng)漲21.0%圖：申萬有色行業(yè)周漲幅前十個(gè)股（2024.12.20-2024.12.27）

圖：申萬有色行業(yè)周漲幅后十個(gè)股（2024.12.20-2024.12.27）精藝股份國(guó)城礦業(yè)寧波富邦華陽(yáng)新材浩通科技濟(jì)高發(fā)展合金投資羅平鋅電永杉鋰業(yè)利源股份25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%0%東陽(yáng)光博威合金正海磁材永茂泰銅冠銅箔西部礦業(yè)紫金礦業(yè)江西銅業(yè)盛屯中潤(rùn)圖：有色金屬行業(yè)海外重點(diǎn)上市公司股價(jià)周漲跌幅（2024.12.20-2024.12.27）6%4%2%0%-2%巴里克黃金力拓伊格爾礦業(yè)嘉能可淡水河谷南方銅業(yè)必和必拓自由港雅保資料：Wind，HTI6目錄1.

申萬有色指數(shù)12/20-12/27下跌0.7%，銅領(lǐng)漲2.

主要子板塊跟蹤（12/20-12/27）2.1

工業(yè)金屬：LME銅價(jià)上漲0.4%2.2

能源金屬：電池級(jí)碳酸鋰價(jià)格下跌0.1%2.3

黃金白銀：COMEX黃金價(jià)下跌0.2%2.4

稀土和銻、鍺、鈾等小金屬：鐠釹氧化物價(jià)格上漲1.4%3.

重要事件：中礦資源擬投建銅礦項(xiàng)目和多金屬綜合循環(huán)回收項(xiàng)目4.

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示7LME銅價(jià)上漲0.4%，LME銅庫(kù)存上漲0.1%圖：LME、SHFE銅價(jià)圖：全球銅庫(kù)存（萬噸）LME銅（美元/噸；左軸）SHFE陰極銅（萬元/噸；右軸）LME銅SHFE陰極銅SHFE國(guó)際銅COMEX銅1200010000800098765806040200600022/1223/0623/1224/0624/1222/1223/0623/1224/0624/12圖：上期所銅期貨收盤價(jià)（萬元/噸）2024/12/202024/12/277.467.447.427.47.387.367.34M+1M+2M+3M+4M+5M+6M+7M+8M+9資料：Wind，HTI8LME鋁價(jià)上漲0.6%，

LME鋁庫(kù)存下跌1.4%圖：LME、SHFE鋁價(jià)圖：全球鋁庫(kù)存（萬噸）LME鋁（美元/噸；左軸）SHFE鋁（萬元/噸；右軸）LME鋁SHFE鋁COMEX鋁3500250015002.62.21.81.41601208040022/1223/0623/1224/0624/1222/1223/0623/1224/0624/12圖：A00鋁和氧化鋁價(jià)格圖：上期所鋁期貨收盤價(jià)（萬元/噸）A00鋁（萬元/噸；左軸）氧化鋁（元/噸；右軸）2024/12/202024/12/27321600050004000300020002.022.012.001.991.981.971.9622/1223/0623/1224/0624/12M+1M+2M+3M+4M+5M+6M+7M+8資料：Wind，HTI9LME鋅價(jià)上漲2.3%，LME鉛價(jià)下跌0.8%圖：LME、SHFE鋅價(jià)圖：LME、SHFE鉛價(jià)LME鋅（美元/噸；左軸）SHFE鋅（萬元/噸；右軸）LME鉛（美元/噸；左軸）SHFE鉛（萬元/噸；右軸）4000300020003.52.51.52400200016002.22.01.81.61.422/1223/0623/1224/0624/1222/1223/0623/1224/0624/12圖：全球主要交易所鋅庫(kù)存（萬噸）圖：全球主要交易所鉛庫(kù)存（萬噸）LME鋅SHFE鋅LME鉛SHFE鉛604020040302010022/1223/0623/1224/0624/1222/1223/0623/1224/0624/12資料：Wind，HTI10LME錫價(jià)上漲0.9%圖：LME、SHFE錫價(jià)圖：全球主要交易所錫庫(kù)存（噸）LME錫（萬美元/噸；左軸）SHFE錫（萬元/噸；右軸）LME錫SHFE錫24000200001600012000800040000432130201022/1223/0623/1224/0624/1222/1223/0623/1224/0624/12圖：上期所錫期貨收盤價(jià)（萬元/噸）2024/12/202024/12/2724.4024.3524.3024.2524.20M+1M+2M+3M+4資料：Wind，HTI11目錄1.

申萬有色指數(shù)12/20-12/27下跌0.7%，銅領(lǐng)漲2.

主要子板塊跟蹤（12/20-12/27）2.1

工業(yè)金屬：LME銅價(jià)上漲0.4%2.2

能源金屬：電池級(jí)碳酸鋰價(jià)格下跌0.1%2.3

黃金白銀：COMEX黃金價(jià)下跌0.2%2.4

稀土和銻、鍺、鈾等小金屬：鐠釹氧化物價(jià)格上漲1.4%3.

重要事件：中礦資源擬投建銅礦項(xiàng)目和多金屬綜合循環(huán)回收項(xiàng)目4.

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示12電池級(jí)碳酸鋰價(jià)格下跌0.1%圖：鋰鹽價(jià)格（萬元/噸）圖：廣期所碳酸鋰期貨收盤價(jià)（萬元/圖：廣期所碳酸鋰庫(kù)存（萬噸）噸）電池級(jí)碳酸鋰工業(yè)級(jí)碳酸鋰氫氧化鋰60504030201006.05.04.03.02.01.00.02024-12-272024-12-20碳酸鋰廣期所庫(kù)存（萬噸）8.28.07.87.67.47.27.0MM+1

M+2

M+3

M+4

M+5

M+6

M+7

M+824/0224/0424/0624/0824/1022/1223/0623/1224/0624/12圖：三元前驅(qū)體價(jià)格（萬元/噸）圖：鋰電池正極材料價(jià)格（萬元/噸）NCM111（左軸）NCM811（左軸）NCM523（左軸）NCM622（左軸）NCM111NCM523NCM622NCM81114121083530252015105磷酸鐵鋰（右軸）1210866442200023/0623/0823/1023/1224/0224/0424/0624/0824/1024/1222/1223/0623/1224/0624/12資料：Wind，HTI13LME鎳價(jià)價(jià)格下跌0.3%圖：LME、SHFE鎳價(jià)圖：全球鎳庫(kù)存（萬噸）LME鎳（萬美元/噸；左軸）SHFE鎳（萬元/噸；右軸）LME鎳庫(kù)存SHFE鎳庫(kù)存2520151053.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.02520151050022/12

23/02

23/04

23/06

23/08

23/10

23/12

24/02

24/04

24/06

24/08

24/10

24/1222/09

22/11

23/01

23/03

23/05

23/07

23/09

23/11

24/01

24/03

24/05

24/07

24/09

24/11圖：長(zhǎng)江鈷及MB鈷價(jià)圖：硫酸鎳和高鎳鐵價(jià)格圖：上期所鎳期貨收盤價(jià)（萬元/噸）長(zhǎng)江鈷（萬元/噸；左軸）MB鈷：標(biāo)準(zhǔn)級(jí)（美元/磅；右軸）MB鈷：合金級(jí)（美元/磅；右軸）硫酸鎳（萬元/噸；左軸）高鎳鐵（元/鎳；右軸）2024-12-202024-12-275.04.54.03.53.02.52.01.51.00.50.016001400120010003525201510512.912.812.712.630252015105800

12.512.4600400200012.312.212.112.011.90022/12

23/03

23/06

23/09

23/12

24/03

24/06

24/09

24/1223/01

23/04

23/07

23/10

24/01

24/04

24/07

24/10MM+1

M+2

M+3

M+4

M+5

M+6

M+7

M+8

M+9資料：Wind，HTI14目錄1.

申萬有色指數(shù)12/20-12/27下跌0.7%，銅領(lǐng)漲2.

主要子板塊跟蹤（12/20-12/27）2.1

工業(yè)金屬：LME銅價(jià)上漲0.4%2.2

能源金屬：電池級(jí)碳酸鋰價(jià)格下跌0.1%2.3

黃金白銀：COMEX黃金價(jià)下跌0.2%2.4

稀土和銻、鍺、鈾等小金屬：鐠釹氧化物價(jià)格上漲1.4%3.

重要事件：中礦資源擬投建銅礦項(xiàng)目和多金屬綜合循環(huán)回收項(xiàng)目4.

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示15COMEX黃金價(jià)下跌0.2%圖：COMEX與SHFE黃金價(jià)格圖：倫敦現(xiàn)貨黃金價(jià)格與美元指數(shù)COMEX黃金（美元/盎司；左軸）SHFE黃金（元/克；右軸）700倫敦現(xiàn)貨黃金（美元/盎司；左軸）美元指數(shù)（右軸）29002700250023002100190017001500290028002700260025002400230022002100200019001800170016001201101009065060055050045040035022/1123/02

23/0523/0823/1124/0224/0524/0824/118022/1223/0623/1224/0624/12圖：白銀價(jià)格圖：美國(guó)CPI當(dāng)月同比與聯(lián)邦基金利率（%）美國(guó)CPI：當(dāng)月同比（左軸）美國(guó)聯(lián)邦基金利率（右軸）COMEX銀（美元/盎司；左軸）SHFE白銀（元/千克；右軸）864206543210403530252015950085007500650055004500350022/1123/0223/0523/0823/1124/0224/0524/0824/1122/1223/0623/1224/06資料：Wind，HTI16金銀比上行至87.96圖：美國(guó)國(guó)債長(zhǎng)短期利差（%）圖：金銀比和銅金比美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率：10Y-2Y美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率：10Y-3M金銀比（金價(jià)/銀價(jià)；左軸）銅金比（銅價(jià)/金價(jià)；右軸）10100906543-1-2-380706022/1222/1223/0623/1224/0624/1223/0623/1224/0624/12圖：全球主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體央行總資產(chǎn)圖：SPDR、iShares黃金ETF持有量（噸）美國(guó):所有聯(lián)儲(chǔ)銀行:總資產(chǎn)（萬億美元；左軸）歐洲央行:資產(chǎn):總額（萬億歐元；左軸）日本央行:資產(chǎn):總額（萬億日元；右軸）SPDR黃金ETF（左軸）iShares黃金ETF（右軸）96094092090088086084082080050045040035030025020015010050109876543210900800700600500400300200100002002200720122017202222/1223/0623/1224/06資料：Wind，HTI17目錄1.

申萬有色指數(shù)12/20-12/27下跌0.7%，銅領(lǐng)漲2.

主要子板塊跟蹤（12/20-12/27）2.1

工業(yè)金屬：LME銅價(jià)上漲0.4%2.2

能源金屬：電池級(jí)碳酸鋰價(jià)格下跌0.1%2.3

黃金白銀：COMEX黃金價(jià)下跌0.2%2.4

稀土和銻、鍺、鈾等小金屬：鐠釹氧化物價(jià)格上漲1.4%3.

重要事件：中礦資源擬投建銅礦項(xiàng)目和多金屬綜合循環(huán)回收項(xiàng)目4.

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示18鐠釹氧化物價(jià)格上漲1.4%圖：主要稀土價(jià)格圖：鉬精礦和銻價(jià)格圖：鍺錠和鎢精礦價(jià)格氧化鏑（萬元/千克；左軸）氧化鋱（萬元/千克；左軸）鐠釹氧化物（萬元/噸；右軸）鉬精礦:45%-50%（元/噸度；左軸）銻（萬元/噸，右軸）鍺錠:≥50Ω（元/千克；左軸）黑鎢精礦:≥55%（萬元/噸；右軸）200001.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.20.095755535600050004000300020001000171513119161514131211109180001600014000120001000080007522/1223/0623/1224/0624/1222/1223/0623/1224/0624/1222/1223/0623/1224/0624/12圖：海綿鈦和鈦精礦價(jià)格/圖：精鉍和精銦價(jià)格圖：電解錳和鎂錠價(jià)格（萬元

噸）海綿鈦≥99.6%（元/千克；左軸）電解錳（左軸）鎂錠（右軸）精鉍:≥99.99%（萬元/噸；左軸）精銦:≥99.995%（元/千克；右軸）鈦精礦（元/噸；右軸）210420111093400902400220020001800300026002200180014001000807060504087654322/1223/0623/1224/0624/1222/1223/0623/1224/0624/1222/1223/0623/1224/0624/12資料：Wind，HTI19目錄1.

申萬有色指數(shù)12/20-12/27下跌0.7%，銅領(lǐng)漲2.

主要子板塊跟蹤（12/20-12/27）2.1

工業(yè)金屬：LME銅價(jià)上漲0.4%2.2

能源金屬：電池級(jí)碳酸鋰價(jià)格下跌0.1%2.3

黃金白銀：COMEX黃金價(jià)下跌0.2%2.4

稀土和銻、鍺、鈾等小金屬：鐠釹氧化物價(jià)格上漲1.4%3.

重要事件：中礦資源擬投建銅礦項(xiàng)目和多金屬綜合循環(huán)回收項(xiàng)目4.

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示20重要事件：中礦資源擬投建銅礦項(xiàng)目和多金屬綜合循環(huán)回收項(xiàng)目表：重要公司跟蹤公司公告日期主要內(nèi)容公司下屬控股子公司Kitumba將投資建設(shè)位于贊比亞的

Kitumba銅礦采、選、冶聯(lián)合工程項(xiàng)目，采選工程項(xiàng)目設(shè)計(jì)規(guī)模為原礦350萬噸/年，冶煉項(xiàng)目設(shè)計(jì)產(chǎn)能為陰極銅6萬噸/年。項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃中礦資源2024-12-28總投資額5.63億美元，其中建設(shè)投資5.06億美元。資金為Kitumba自有資金及其自籌資金。公司下屬控股子公司Tsumeb冶煉廠將投資建設(shè)20萬噸/年多金屬綜合循環(huán)回收項(xiàng)目。項(xiàng)目計(jì)中礦資源2024-12-28劃總投資額2.23億美元，其中建設(shè)投資2.05億美元。資金為Tsumeb冶煉廠自有資金、自籌資金等方式。資料：《中礦資源:關(guān)于投資建設(shè)贊比亞中央省Kitumba銅礦項(xiàng)目的公告》、

《中礦資源:關(guān)于投資建設(shè)Tsumeb冶煉廠多金屬綜合循環(huán)回收項(xiàng)目的公告》，HTI。21目錄1.

申萬有色指數(shù)12/20-12/27下跌0.7%，銅領(lǐng)漲2.

主要子板塊跟蹤（12/20-12/27）2.1

工業(yè)金屬：LME銅價(jià)上漲0.4%2.2

能源金屬：電池級(jí)碳酸鋰價(jià)格下跌0.1%2.3

黃金白銀：COMEX黃金價(jià)下跌0.15%2.4

稀土和銻、鍺、鈾等小金屬：鐠釹氧化物價(jià)格上漲1.4%3.

重要事件：中礦資源擬投建銅礦項(xiàng)目和多金屬綜合循環(huán)回收項(xiàng)目4.

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示22風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示

經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇不及預(yù)期，新能源車、地產(chǎn)需求不及預(yù)期。若新能源車、地產(chǎn)等下游行業(yè)需求不及預(yù)期，或?qū)⒃斐山饘賰r(jià)格下行。

主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體貨幣政策收緊過度，或?qū)⒃斐墒袌?chǎng)流動(dòng)性短缺，抑制實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)需求。

國(guó)際地緣政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。隨著國(guó)外愈發(fā)重視本土產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈建設(shè)和戰(zhàn)略資源保護(hù)，中企在海外投資礦產(chǎn)資源或?qū)⒚媾R外資審查趨嚴(yán)，當(dāng)?shù)卣卟淮_定性提升等風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

項(xiàng)目建設(shè)不及預(yù)期。公司項(xiàng)目建設(shè)推遲，或?qū)⒃斐僧a(chǎn)銷量不及預(yù)期。23APPENDIX

2重要信息披露本研究報(bào)告由(HTISCL)的證券研究團(tuán)隊(duì)所組成的全球品牌，國(guó)際分銷，國(guó)際是由國(guó)際研究有限公司(HTIRL)，Haitong

Securities

India

Private

Limited

(HSIPL)，Haitong

International

Japan

K.K.

(HTIJKK)和國(guó)際證券集團(tuán)(HTISG)各成員分別在其許可的司法管轄區(qū)內(nèi)從事證券活動(dòng)。國(guó)際證券有限公司IMPORTANT

DISCLOSURESThis

research

report

is

distributed

by

Haitong

International,

a

global

brand

name

for

the

equity

research

teams

of

Haitong

International

Research

Limited

(“HTIRL”),

Haitong

Securities

India

Private

Limited(“HSIPL”),

Haitong

International

Japan

K.K.

(“HTIJKK”),

Haitong

International

Securities

Company

Limited

(“HTISCL”),

and

any

other

members

within

the

Haitong

International

Securities

Group

of

Companies(“HTISG”),

each

authorized

to

engage

in

securities

activities

in

its

respective

jurisdiction.HTIRL分析師認(rèn)證Analyst

Certification:我，

陳先龍，在此保證（i）本研究報(bào)告中的意見準(zhǔn)確反映了我們對(duì)本研究中提及的任何或所有目標(biāo)公司或上市公司的個(gè)人觀點(diǎn)，并且（ii）我的報(bào)酬中沒有任何部分與本研究報(bào)告中表達(dá)的具體建議或觀點(diǎn)直接或間接相關(guān)；及就此報(bào)告中所討論目標(biāo)公司的證券，我們（包括我們的家屬）在其中均不持有任何財(cái)務(wù)利益。我和我的家屬（我已經(jīng)告知他們）將不會(huì)在本研究報(bào)告發(fā)布后的3個(gè)工作日內(nèi)交易此研究報(bào)告所討論目標(biāo)公司的證券。I,

Xianlong

Chen,

certify

that

(i)

the

views

expressed

in

this

research

report

accurately

reflect

my

personal

views

about

any

or

all

of

the

subjectcompanies

or

issuers

referred

to

in

this

research

and

(ii)

no

part

of

my

compensation

was,

is

or

will

be

directly

or

indirectly

related

to

the

specific

recommendations

or

views

expressed

in

this

researchreport;

and

that

I

(including

members

of

my

household)

have

no

financial

interest

in

the

security

or

securities

of

the

subject

companies

discussed.

I

and

my

household,

whom

I

have

already

notified

of

this,will

not

deal

in

or

trade

any

securities

in

respect

of

the

issuer

that

I

review

within

3

business

days

after

the

research

report

is

published.我，

甘嘉堯，在此保證（i）本研究報(bào)告中的意見準(zhǔn)確反映了我們對(duì)本研究中提及的任何或所有目標(biāo)公司或上市公司的個(gè)人觀點(diǎn)，并且（ii）我的報(bào)酬中沒有任何部分與本研究報(bào)告中表達(dá)的具體建議或觀點(diǎn)直接或間接相關(guān)；及就此報(bào)告中所討論目標(biāo)公司的證券，我們（包括我們的家屬）在其中均不持有任何財(cái)務(wù)利益。我和我的家屬（我已經(jīng)告知他們）將不會(huì)在本研究報(bào)告發(fā)布后的3個(gè)工作日內(nèi)交易此研究報(bào)告所討論目標(biāo)公司的證券。I,

Jiayao

Gan,

certify

that

(i)

the

views

expressed

in

this

research

report

accurately

reflect

my

personal

views

about

any

or

all

of

the

subjectcompanies

or

issuers

referred

to

in

this

research

and

(ii)

no

part

of

my

compensation

was,

is

or

will

be

directly

or

indirectly

related

to

the

specific

recommendations

or

views

expressed

in

this

researchreport;

and

that

I

(including

members

of

my

household)

have

no

financial

interest

in

the

security

or

securities

of

the

subject

companies

discussed.

I

and

my

household,

whom

I

have

already

notified

of

this,will

not

deal

in

or

trade

any

securities

in

respect

of

the

issuer

that

I

review

within

3

business

days

after

the

research

report

is

published.我，

吳旖婕，在此保證（i）本研究報(bào)告中的意見準(zhǔn)確反映了我們對(duì)本研究中提及的任何或所有目標(biāo)公司或上市公司的個(gè)人觀點(diǎn)，并且（ii）我的報(bào)酬中沒有任何部分與本研究報(bào)告中表達(dá)的具體建議或觀點(diǎn)直接或間接相關(guān)；及就此報(bào)告中所討論目標(biāo)公司的證券，我們（包括我們的家屬）在其中均不持有任何財(cái)務(wù)利益。我和我的家屬（我已經(jīng)告知他們）將不會(huì)在本研究報(bào)告發(fā)布后的3個(gè)工作日內(nèi)交易此研究報(bào)告所討論目標(biāo)公司的證券。I,

Yijie

Wu,

certify

that

(i)

the

views

expressed

in

this

research

report

accurately

reflect

my

personal

views

about

any

or

all

of

the

subjectcompanies

or

issuers

referred

to

in

this

research

and

(ii)

no

part

of

my

compensation

was,

is

or

will

be

directly

or

indirectly

related

to

the

specific

recommendations

or

views

expressed

in

this

researchreport;

and

that

I

(including

members

of

my

household)

have

no

financial

interest

in

the

security

or

securities

of

the

subject

companies

discussed.

I

and

my

household,

whom

I

have

already

notified

of

this,will

not

deal

in

or

trade

any

securities

in

respect

of

the

issuer

that

I

review

within

3

business

days

after

the

research

report

is

published.我，

王曼琪，在此保證（i）本研究報(bào)告中的意見準(zhǔn)確反映了我們對(duì)本研究中提及的任何或所有目標(biāo)公司或上市公司的個(gè)人觀點(diǎn)，并且（ii）我的報(bào)酬中沒有任何部分與本研究報(bào)告中表達(dá)的具體建議或觀點(diǎn)直接或間接相關(guān)；及就此報(bào)告中所討論目標(biāo)公司的證券，我們（包括我們的家屬）在其中均不持有任何財(cái)務(wù)利益。我和我的家屬（我已經(jīng)告知他們）將不會(huì)在本研究報(bào)告發(fā)布后的3個(gè)工作日內(nèi)交易此研究報(bào)告所討論目標(biāo)公司的證券。I,

Manqi

Wang,

certify

that

(i)

the

views

expressed

in

this

research

report

accurately

reflect

my

personal

views

about

any

or

all

of

the

subjectcompanies

or

issuers

referred

to

in

this

research

and

(ii)

no

part

of

my

compensation

was,

is

or

will

be

directly

or

indirectly

related

to

the

specific

recommendations

or

views

expressed

in

this

researchreport;

and

that

I

(including

members

of

my

household)

have

no

financial

interest

in

the

security

or

securities

of

the

subject

companies

discussed.

I

and

my

household,

whom

I

have

already

notified

of

this,will

not

deal

in

or

trade

any

securities

in

respect

of

the

issuer

that

I

review

within

3

business

days

after

the

research

report

is

published.2APPENDIX

2利益沖突披露Conflict

ofInterestDisclosures國(guó)際及其某些關(guān)聯(lián)公司可從事投資銀行業(yè)務(wù)和/或?qū)Ρ狙芯恐械奶囟ü善被蚬具M(jìn)行做市或持有自營(yíng)頭寸。就本研究報(bào)告而言，以下是有關(guān)該等關(guān)系的披露事項(xiàng)（以下披露不能保證及時(shí)無遺漏，如需了解及時(shí)全面信息，請(qǐng)發(fā)郵件至ERD-Disclosure@）HTI

and

some

of

its

affiliates

may

engage

in

investment

banking

and

/

or

serve

as

a

market

maker

or

hold

proprietary

trading

positions

of

certain

stocks

or

companies

in

this

research

report.

As

far

as

this

research

report

is

concerned,

the

following

are

the

disclosure

matters

related

to

suchrelationship

(As

the

following

disclosure

does

not

ensure

timeliness

and

completeness,

please

send

an

email

to

ERD-Disclosure@

if

timely

and

comprehensive

information

is

needed).證券股份有限公司和/或其子公司（統(tǒng)稱“”）在過去12個(gè)月內(nèi)參與了601600.CH

and

300748.CH的投資銀行項(xiàng)目。投資銀行項(xiàng)目包括：1、擔(dān)任上市前輔導(dǎo)機(jī)構(gòu)、保薦人或主承銷商的首次公開發(fā)行項(xiàng)目；2、作為保薦人、主承銷商或財(cái)務(wù)顧問的股權(quán)或債務(wù)再融資項(xiàng)目；3、作為主經(jīng)紀(jì)商的新三板上市、目標(biāo)配售和并購(gòu)項(xiàng)目。Haitong

Securities

Co.,

Ltd.

and/or

its

subsidiaries

(collectively,

the

"Haitong")

have

a

role

in

investment

banking

projects

of

601600.CH

and

300748.CH

within

the

past

12

months.

The

investment

banking

projects

include

1.

IPO

projects

in

which

Haitong

acted

as

pre-listing

tutor,

sponsor,

or

lead-underwriter;

2.

equity

or

debt

refinancing

projects

of

601600.CH

and

300748.CH

for

which

Haitong

acted

as

sponsor,

lead-underwriter

or

financial

advisor;

3.

listing

by

introduction

in

the

new

three

board,

target

placement,

M&A

projects

in

which

Haitong

acted

as

lead-brokerage

firm.601600.CH

及

300748.CH目前或過去12個(gè)月內(nèi)是的投資銀行業(yè)務(wù)客戶。601600.CH

and

300748.CH

are/were

an

investment

bank

clients

of

Haitong

currently

or

within

the

past

12

months.603993.CH,

601600.CH,

000630.CH,

600988.CH

及

000603.CH目前或過去12個(gè)月內(nèi)是的客戶。向客戶提供非投資銀行業(yè)務(wù)的證券相關(guān)業(yè)務(wù)服務(wù)。603993.CH,

601600.CH,

000630.CH,

600988.CH

and

000603.CH

are/were

a

client

of

Haitong

currently

or

within

the

past

12

months.

The

client

has

been

provided

for

non-investment-banking

securities-related

services.在過去的12個(gè)月中從601600.CH

及

000630.CH獲得除投資銀行服務(wù)以外之產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)的報(bào)酬。Haitong

has

received

compensation

in

the

past

12

months

for

products

or

services

other

than

investment

banking

from

601600.CH

and

000630.CH.3APPENDIX

2評(píng)級(jí)定義（從2020年7月1日開始執(zhí)行）：國(guó)際（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“HTI”）采用相對(duì)評(píng)級(jí)系統(tǒng)來為投資者推薦我們覆蓋的公司：優(yōu)于大市、中性或弱于大市。投資者應(yīng)仔細(xì)閱讀HTI的評(píng)級(jí)定義。并且HTI發(fā)布分析師觀點(diǎn)的完整信息，投資者應(yīng)仔細(xì)閱讀全文而非僅看評(píng)級(jí)。在任何情況下，分析師的評(píng)級(jí)和研究都不能作為投資建議。投資者的買賣股票的決策應(yīng)基于各自情況（比如投資者的現(xiàn)有持倉(cāng)）以及其他因素。分析師股票評(píng)級(jí)優(yōu)于大市，未來12-18個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對(duì)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)漲幅在10%以上，基準(zhǔn)定義如下中性，未來12-18個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對(duì)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)變化不大，基準(zhǔn)定義如下。根據(jù)FINRA/NYSE的評(píng)級(jí)分布規(guī)則，我們會(huì)將中性評(píng)級(jí)劃入持有這一類別。弱于大市，未來12-18個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對(duì)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)跌幅在10%以上，基準(zhǔn)定義如下各地股票基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)：日本

–

TOPIX,

韓國(guó)

–

KOSPI,臺(tái)灣

–

TAIEX,

印度

–

Nifty100,

美國(guó)

–

SP500;其他所有中國(guó)概念股

–

MSCI

China.RatingsDefinitions(from

1

Jul

2020):Haitong

International

uses

a

relative

rating

system

using

Outperform,

Neutral,

or

Underperform

for

recommending

the

stocks

we

cover

to

investors.Investors

should

carefully

read

the

definitions

of

all

ratings

used

in

Haitong

International

Research.

In

addition,

since

Haitong

International

Researchcontains

more

complete

information

concerning

the

analyst's

views,

investors

should

carefully

read

Haitong

International

Research,

in

its

entirety,

andnot

infer

the

contents

from

the

rating

alone.

In

any

case,

ratings

(or

research)

should

not

be

used

or

relied

upon

as

investment

advice.

An

investor'sdecision

to

buy

or

sell

a

stock

should

depend

on

individual

circumstances

(such

as

the

investor's

existing

holdings)

and

other

considerations.Analyst

StockRatingsOutperform:

The

stock’s

total

return

over

the

next

12-18

months

is

expected

to

exceed

the

return

of

its

relevant

broad

market

benchmark,

as

indicatedbelow.Neutral:

The

stock’s

total

return

over

the

next

12-18

months

is

expected

to

be

in

line

with

the

return

of

its

relevant

broad

market

benchmark,

asindicated

below.

For

purposes

only

of

FINRA/NYSE

ratings

distribution

rules,

our

Neutral

rating

falls

into

a

hold

rating

category.Underperform:

The

stock’s

total

return

over

the

next

12-18

months

is

expected

to

be

below

the

return

of

its

relevant

broad

market

benchmark,

asindicated

below.Benchmarks

for

each

stock’s

listed

region

are

as

follows:

Japan

–

TOPIX,

Korea

–

KOSPI,

Taiwan

–

TAIEX,

India

–

Nifty100,

US

–

SP500;

for

all

otherChina-conceptstocks

–

MSCIChina.4APPENDIX

2評(píng)級(jí)分布Rating

Distribution5APPENDIX

2截至2024年9月30日國(guó)際股票研究評(píng)級(jí)分布優(yōu)于大市中性弱于大市(持有)國(guó)際股票研究覆蓋率投資銀行客戶*91.8%7.8%0.4%3.5%4.4%0.0%*在每個(gè)評(píng)級(jí)類別里投資銀行客戶所占的百分比。上述分布中的買入，中性和賣出分別對(duì)應(yīng)我們當(dāng)前優(yōu)于大市，中性和落后大市評(píng)級(jí)。只有根據(jù)FINRA/NYSE的評(píng)級(jí)分布規(guī)則，我們才將中性評(píng)級(jí)劃入持有這一類別。請(qǐng)注意在上表中不包含非評(píng)級(jí)的股票。此前的評(píng)級(jí)系統(tǒng)定義（直至2020年6月30日）：買入，未來12-18個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對(duì)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)漲幅在10%以上，基準(zhǔn)定義如下中性，未來12-18個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對(duì)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)變化不大，基準(zhǔn)定義如下。根據(jù)FINRA/NYSE的評(píng)級(jí)分布規(guī)則，我們會(huì)將中性評(píng)級(jí)劃入持有這一類別。賣出，未來12-18個(gè)月內(nèi)預(yù)期相對(duì)基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)跌幅在10%以上，基準(zhǔn)定義如下各地股票基準(zhǔn)指數(shù)：日本

–

TOPIX,

韓國(guó)

–

KOSPI,臺(tái)灣

–

TAIEX,

印度

–

Nifty100;

其他所有中國(guó)概念股

–

MSCI

China.Haitong

International

EquityResearch

RatingsDistribution,

asofSeptember30,2024OutperformNeutral(hold)7.8%4.4%UnderperformHTI

Equity

Research

Coverage

91.8%IB

clients*

3.5%0.4%0.0%*Percentage

of

investment

banking

clients

in

each

rating

category.BUY,

Neutral,

and

SELL

in

the

above

distribution

correspond

to

our

current

ratings

of

Outperform,

Neutral,

and

Underperform.For

purposes

only

of

FINRA/NYSE

ratings

distribution

rules,

our

Neutral

rating

falls

into

a

hold

rating

category.

Please

note

that

stocks

with

an

NRdesignation

are

not

included

in

the

table

above.Previous

ratingsystem

definitions

(until30Jun2020):BUY:

The

stock’s

total

return

over

the

next

12-18

months

is

expected

to

exceed

the

return

of

its

relevant

broad

market

benchmark,

as

indicated

below.NEUTRAL:

The

stock’s

total

return

over

the

next

12-18

months

is

expected

to

be

in

line

with

the

return

of

its

relevant

broad

market

benchmark,

asindicated

below.

For

purposes

only

of

FINRA/NYSE

ratings

distribution

rules,

our

Neutral

rating

falls

into

a

hold

rating

category.SELL:

The

stock’s

total

return

over

the

next

12-18

months

is

expected

to

be

below

the

return

of

its

relevant

broad

market

benchmark,

as

indicatedbelow.Benchmarks

for

each

stock’s

listedregionareas

follows:Japan–

TOPIX,Korea–

KOSPI,Taiwan–

TAIEX,India–

Nifty100;forall

other

China-conceptstocks

–

MSCI

China.6APPENDIX

2國(guó)際非評(píng)級(jí)研究：國(guó)際發(fā)布計(jì)量、篩選或短篇報(bào)告，并在報(bào)告中根據(jù)估值和其他指標(biāo)對(duì)股票進(jìn)行排名，或者基于可能的估值倍數(shù)提出建議價(jià)格。這種排名或建議價(jià)格并非為了進(jìn)行股票評(píng)級(jí)、提出目標(biāo)價(jià)格或進(jìn)行基本面估值，而僅供參考使用。HaitongInternationalNon-Rated

Research:

Haitong

International

publishes

quantitative,

screening

or

short

reports

which

may

rank

stocks

according

to

valuation

andother

metrics

or

may

suggest

prices

based

on

possible

valuation

multiples.

Such

rankings

or

suggested

prices

do

not

purport

to

be

stock

ratings

or

target

prices

orfundamental

values

and

are

for

information

only.國(guó)際A股覆蓋：中國(guó)A股的研究報(bào)告。但是，國(guó)際可能會(huì)就滬港通及深港通的中國(guó)A股進(jìn)行覆蓋及評(píng)級(jí)。國(guó)際使用與

證券不同的評(píng)級(jí)系統(tǒng)，所以

國(guó)際與證券（600837.CH），

國(guó)際于上海的母公司，也會(huì)于中國(guó)發(fā)布證券的中國(guó)A股評(píng)級(jí)可能有所不同。Haitong

International

Coverage

of

A-Shares:

Haitong

International

may

cover

and

rate

A-Shares

that

are

subject

to

the

Hong

Kong

Stock

Connect

scheme

withShanghai

and

Shenzhen.

Haitong

Securities

(HS;

600837

CH),

the

ultimate

parent

company

of

HTISG

based

in

Shanghai,

covers

and

publishes

research

on

these

sameA-Shares

for

distribution

in

mainland

China.

However,

the

rating

system

employed

by

HS

differs

from

that

used

by

HTI

and

as

a

result

there

may

be

a

difference

in

theHTI

and

HS

ratings

for

the

same

A-share

stocks.國(guó)際優(yōu)質(zhì)100

A股（Q100）指數(shù)：程，并結(jié)合對(duì)

證券

A股團(tuán)隊(duì)自下而上的研究。國(guó)際Q100指數(shù)是一個(gè)包括100支由證券覆蓋的優(yōu)質(zhì)中國(guó)A股的計(jì)量產(chǎn)品。這些股票是通過基于質(zhì)量的篩選過國(guó)際每季對(duì)Q100指數(shù)成分作出復(fù)審。Haitong

International

Quality

100

A-share

(Q100)

Index:

HTI’s

Q100

Index

is

a

quant

product

that

consists

of

100

of

the

highest-quality

A-shares

under

coverage

atHS

in

Shanghai.

These

stocks

are

carefully

selected

through

a

quality-based

screening

process

in

combination

with

a

review

of

the

HS

A-share

team’s

bottom-upresearch.

The

Q100

constituent

companies

are

reviewed

quarterly.7APPENDIX

2盟浪義利（FIN-ESG）數(shù)據(jù)通免責(zé)聲明條款：在使用盟浪義利（FIN-ESG）數(shù)據(jù)之前，請(qǐng)務(wù)必仔細(xì)閱讀本條款并同意本聲明：第一條

義利（FIN-ESG）數(shù)據(jù)系由盟浪可持續(xù)數(shù)字科技有限責(zé)任公司（以下簡(jiǎn)稱“本公司”）基于合法取得的公開信息評(píng)估而成，本公司對(duì)信息的準(zhǔn)確性及完整性不作任何保證。對(duì)公司的評(píng)估結(jié)果僅供參考，并不構(gòu)成對(duì)任何個(gè)人或機(jī)構(gòu)投資建議，也不能作為任何個(gè)人或機(jī)構(gòu)購(gòu)買、出售或持有相關(guān)金融產(chǎn)品的依據(jù)。本公司不對(duì)任何個(gè)人或機(jī)構(gòu)投資者因使用本數(shù)據(jù)表述的評(píng)估結(jié)果造成的任何直接或間接損失負(fù)責(zé)。第二條

盟浪并不因收到此評(píng)估數(shù)據(jù)而將收件人視為客戶，收件人使用此數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)應(yīng)根據(jù)自身實(shí)際情況作出自我獨(dú)立判斷。本數(shù)據(jù)所載內(nèi)容反映的是盟浪在最初發(fā)布本數(shù)據(jù)日期當(dāng)日的判斷，盟浪有權(quán)在不發(fā)出通知的情況下更新、修訂與發(fā)出其他與本數(shù)據(jù)所載內(nèi)容不一致或有不同結(jié)論的數(shù)據(jù)。除非另行說明，本數(shù)據(jù)（如財(cái)務(wù)業(yè)績(jī)數(shù)據(jù)等）僅代表過往表現(xiàn)，過往的業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn)不作為日后回報(bào)的預(yù)測(cè)。第三條

本數(shù)據(jù)歸本公司所有，本公司依法保留各項(xiàng)權(quán)利。未經(jīng)本公司事先書面許可授權(quán)，任何個(gè)人或機(jī)構(gòu)不得將本數(shù)據(jù)中的評(píng)估結(jié)果用于任何營(yíng)利