第1題Timeseriesmethods(

).AdiscoverapatterninhistoricaldataandprojectitintothefutureBincludecause-effectrelationshipsCareusefulwhenhistoricalinformationisnotavailableDAlloftheoptionsaretrue.第2題Whichofthefollowingdoesnotrequiresophisticatedquantitativeforecasts?()AAccountingrevenueforecastsfortaxpurposes.BMoneymanagersuseofinterestrateforecastsforassetallocationdecisions.CManagersofpowerplantsusingweatherforecastsinforecastingpowerdemand.DAlloftheoptionsrequiresophisticatedquantitativeforecasts.第3題Thepredictabilityofaneventoraquantitydependsonseveralfactorsincluding(

).AhowwellweunderstandthefactorsthatcontributetoitBhowmuchdataisavailableCwhethertheforecastscanaffectthethingwearetryingtoforecastDAlloftheoptionsaretrue.第4題Whichofthefollowingpointsiscorrect?(

)AShort-termforecastsareneededtodeterminefutureresourcerequirements,inordertopurchaserawmaterials,hirepersonnel,orbuymachineryandequipment.BMedium-termforecastsareneededfortheschedulingofpersonnel,productionandtransportation.CLong-termforecastsareusedinstrategicplanning.DAlloftheoptionsaretrue.第5題Whichofthefollowingpointsisincorrect?(

)AForecastingisaboutpredictingthefutureasaccuratelyaspossible,givenalloftheinformationavailable,includinghistoricaldataandknowledgeofanyfutureeventsthatmightimpacttheforecasts.BGoalsshouldbelinkedtoforecastsandplans.CPlanninginvolvesdeterminingtheappropriateactionsthatarerequiredtomakeyourforecastsmatchyourgoals.DForecastingiswhatyouwouldliketohavehappen.第6題Thetimeofthesunrisetomorrowmorningcanbeforecastprecisely.(

)第7題Quantitativeforecastingmethodsdonotrequirethatpatternsfromthepastwillnecessarilycontinueinthefuture.(

)第8題Qualitativeforecastingtechniquesshouldbeappliedinsituationswheretimeseriesdataexists,butconditionsareexpectedtochange.(

)第9題Short-termforecastsareneededtodeterminefutureresourcerequirements,inordertopurchaserawmaterials,hirepersonnel,orbuymachineryandequipment.(

)第10題Thetimeframeoflong-termforecastsisgenerallyconsideredlongerthan2yearsintothefuture.(

)第1題Whichsimpleforecastingmethodsaystheforecastisequaltothemeanofthehistoricaldata?()AAverageMethodBNa?veMethodCSeasonalNa?veMethodDDriftMethod第2題Whichsimpleforecastingmethodisaconsequenceoftheefficientmarkethypothesis?()AAverageMethodBNa?veMethodCSeasonalNa?veMethodDDriftMethod第3題Whichsimpleforecastingmethodusestheformula?()AAverageMethodBNa?veMethodCSeasonalNa?veMethodDDriftMethod第4題Whichsimpleforecastingmethodsaystheforecastisequaltothelastvaluefromthesameseason?()AAverageMethodBNa?veMethodCSeasonalNa?veMethodDDriftMethod第5題Whichsimpleforecastingmethodisequivalenttoextrapolatingalinedrawbetweenthefirstandlastobservations?()AAverageMethodBNa?veMethodCSeasonalNa?veMethodDDriftMethod第6題Whichofthefollowingisanassumptionmadeaboutforecastingresiduals?()AResidualsarenormallydistributed.BResidualsareuncorrelated.CResidualshaveconstantvariance.DNoneoftheabove.第7題Whichofthefollowingisusefulpropertyofforecastingresiduals?()AResidualshavemeanzero.BResidualsareuncorrelated.CResidualshaveconstantvariance.DNoneoftheabove.第8題Whatistheconsequenceofforecastingresidualsthatarenotuncorrelated?()APredictionintervalsaredifficulttocalculate.BInformationisleftintheresidualsthatshouldbeused.CForecastsarebiased.DNoneoftheabove.第9題Whichmeasureofforecastaccuracyhastheformula?()AMAEBMSECRMSEDMAPE第10題Forecastsbasedsolelyonthemostrecentobservationofthevariableofinterest().Aarecalled"na?ve"forecastsBarethesimplestofallquantitativeforecastingmethodsCareconsistentwiththe"randomwalk"hypothesisinfinance,whichstatesthattheoptimalforecastoftoday'sstockrateofreturnisyesterday'sactualrateofreturnDAlloftheoptionsarecorrect.Assignment3第1題Whichsubjectiveforecastingmethoddependsupontheanonymousopinionofapanelofindividualstogeneratesalesforecasts?(

)ASalesForceCompositeBCustomerSurveysCJuryofExecutiveOpinionDDelphiMethod第2題Whichsubjectivesalesforecastingmethodmayhavethemostinformationaboutthespendingplansofcustomersforaspecificfirm?()ASalesForceCompositeBCustomerSurveysCJuryofExecutiveOpinionDDelphiMethod第3題Whichofthefollowingmethodsisnotusefulforforecastingsalesofanewproduct?(

)ATimeseriestechniquesrequiringlotsofhistoricaldataBDelphiMethodCConsumerSurveysDTestmarketresults第4題Whichofthefollowingisnotconsideredasubjectiveforecastingmethod?()ASalesForceCompositeBNa?veMethodCDelphiMethodDJuryofExecutiveOpinion第5題Judgmentalforecastsinclude().AExponentialSmoothingBNa?veMethodCAverageMethodDForecastingbyanalogy第6題Judgmentalforecastsaresubjective,andthereforedonotcomefreeofbiasorlimitations.()第7題Judgmentalforecastscannotbeinconsistent.()第8題Judgementcanbecloudedbypersonalorpoliticalagendas,wheretargetsandforecastsarenotsegregated.()第9題Usingasystematicandwellstructuredapproachinjudgmentalforecastinghelpstoreducetheadverseeffectsofthelimitationsofjudgmentalforecasting.()第10題Buildingforecastsbasedonscenariosallowsawiderangeofpossibleforecaststobegeneratedandsomeextremestobeidentified.()Assignment4第1題Whichofthefollowingassumptionsabouterrorsisnecessaryforusingalinearregressionmodel?()ATheyhavemeanzero.BTheyarenotautocorrelated.CTheyareunrelatedtothepredictorvariables.DAlloftheoptionsarecorrect.第2題Whenweusealinearregressionmodel,weassumetheerrorsarenotautocorrelated,otherwise().AtheforecastswillbesystematicallybiasedBtheforecastswillbeinefficient,asthereismoreinformationinthedatathatcanbeexploitedCtherewouldbemoreinformationthatshouldbeincludedinthesystematicpartofthemodelDNoneoftheoptionsarecorrect第3題Whichofthefollowingpointsaboutthecoefficientofdetermination(R2)isincorrect?(

)AIfthepredictionsareclosetotheactualvalues,wewouldexpect

R2tobecloseto1.BIfthepredictionsareunrelatedtotheactualvalues,then

R2=0.5.CInallcases,

R2

liesbetween0and1.DR2reflectstheproportionofvariationintheforecastvariablethatisaccountedforbytheregressionmodel.第4題WhichofthefollowingpointsabouttheBreusch-Godfrey

testisincorrect?()AItisusedtotestofautocorrelationintheresidualsdesignedtotakeaccountfortheregressionmodel.BItisalsoreferredtoastheLagrangeMultipliertestforserialcorrelation.CItisusedtotestthejointhypothesisthatthereisnoautocorrelationintheresidualsuptoacertainspecifiedorder.DAgreatp-valueindicatesthereissignificantautocorrelationremainingintheresiduals.第5題Therandom“error”terminasimplelinearregressionmodeldoesnotimplyamistake,butadeviationfromtheunderlyingstraightlinemodel.()第6題Thecoefficientsofa

multipleregressionmodelmeasurethe

marginaleffects

ofthepredictorvariables.()第7題Whenweusealinearregressionmodel,weassumetheerrorsareunrelatedtothepredictorvariables,otherwisetheforecastswillbeinefficient,asthereismoreinformationinthedatathatcanbeexploited.()第8題Whenweusealinearregressionmodel,weassumetheerrorshavemeanzero,otherwisetheforecastswillbesystematicallybiased.()第9題Whenweusealinearregressionmodel,weassumethatthemodelisareasonableapproximationtoreality.()第10題Theresidualstandarderrorcanbeusedtomeasurehowwellthemodelhasfittedthedata.()Assignment5第1題Alongtermincreaseordecreaseinthedataisknownaswhat?()ATrendBSeasonalCCyclicalDWhitenoise第2題Aseriesthatisinfluencedbyseasonalfactorsisknownaswhat?()ATrendBSeasonalCCyclicalDWhitenoise第3題Datathatexhibitsrisesandfallsthatarenotofafixedperiodisknownaswhat?()ATrendBSeasonalCCyclicalDWhitenoise第4題Datathatisuncorrelatedovertimeisknownaswhat?()ATrendBSeasonalCCyclicalDWhitenoise第5題Whichofthefollowingisnotacomponentoftimeseriesdecomposition?()ASeasonalcomponentBTrend-cyclecomponentCAutocorrelationDRemaindercomponent第6題Whichofthefollowingtimeseriesdecompositionmodelsisappropriatewhenthemagnitudeoftheseasonalfluctuationsarenotproportionaltothelevel?()AAdditiveBMultiplicativeCBothDNeither第7題Trendinatimeseriesmustbelinear.()第8題Allquarterlytimeseriescontainseasonality.()第9題Seasonallyadjustedseriesdonotcontaintheremaindercomponentaswellasthetrend-cycle.()第10題Afour-periodmovingaverageforecastforperiod10wouldbefoundbyaveragingthevaluesfromperiods10,9,8,and7.()Assignment6第1題Thefocusofsmoothingmethodsistosmooth().AtheirregularcomponentBwideseasonalvariationsCsignificanttrendeffectsDlongrangeforecasts第2題Toselectavalueforαforexponentialsmoothing().

Ause

smallαwhentheseriesvariessubstantiallyBuse

largeαwhentheserieshaslittlerandomvariabilityCuseanyvaluebetween0and1DAlloftheoptionsaretrue.第3題Simpleexponentialsmoothingissuitableforforecastingdatawithnocleartrendorseasonalpattern.()第4題Exponentialsmoothingmodelsarebasedonadescriptionofthetrendandseasonalityinthedata.()第5題Exponentialsmoothingmodelsaimtodescribetheautocorrelationsinthedata.()第6題Forecastsproducedusingexponentialsmoothingmethodsareweightedaveragesofpastobservations,withtheweightsdecayingexponentiallyastheobservationsgetolder.()第7題Fortheextremecasewhere

α=0,theforecastsofexponentialsmoothingareequaltothena?veforecasts.()第8題TheHolt-Wintersseasonalmethodcomprisestheforecastequationandthreesmoothingequations.()第9題Holt’slineartrendmethodallowstheforecastingofdatawithatrend,andinvolvesaforecastequationandtwosmoothingequations.()第10題Whenweusesimpleexponentialsmoothingtoforecast,thesumoftheweightsevenforasmallvalueof

αwillbeapproximatelyzeroforanyreasonablesamplesize.()Assignment7第1題ForanAR(1)model:().Awhen=0,isequivalenttowhitenoiseBwhen

=1andc=0,isequivalenttowhitenoiseCwhen

=1andc≠0,isequivalenttowhitenoiseDwhen

isequivalenttowhitenoise第2題ForanAR(1)model:().Awhen

=0,isequivalenttorandomwalkBwhen

=1andc=0,isequivalenttorandomwalkCwhen

=1andc≠0,isequivalenttorandomwalkDwhen

<0,isequivalenttorandomwalk第3題ForanAR(1)model:().Awhen

=0,isequivalenttorandomwalkwithdriftBwhen

=1andc=0,isequivalenttorandomwalkwithdriftCwhen

=1andc≠0,isequivalenttorandomwalkwithdriftDwhen

isequivalenttorandomwalkwithdrift第4題ForanAR(1)model:(

).Awhen

=0,tendstooscillatearoundthemeanBwhen

=1andc=0,tendstooscillatearoundthemeanCwhen

=1andc≠0,tendstooscillatearoundthemeanDwhen

<0,tendstooscillatearoundthemean第5題ExponentialsmoothingandARIMAmodelsarethetwomostwidelyusedapproachestotimeseriesforecasting,andprovidecomplementaryapproachestotheproblem.()第6題ARIMAmodelsarebasedonadescriptionofthetrendandseasonalityinthedata.()第7題ARIMAmodelsaimtodescribetheautocorrelationsinthedata.()第8題Whileexponentialsmoothingmodelsarebasedonadescriptionofthetrendandseasonalityinthedata,ARIMAmodelsaimtodescribetheautocorrelationsinthedata.()第9題Astationarytimeseriesisonewhosepropertiesdonotdependonthetimeatwhichtheseriesisobserved.()第10題Timeserieswithtrends,orwithseasonality,arestationary.()Assignment8第1題Theoptionsfromwhichadecisionmakerchoosesacourseofactionare().AcalledthedecisionalternativesBunderthecontrolofthedecisionmakerCnotthesameasthestatesofnatureDAllofthealternativesaretrue.第2題Statesofnature().AcandescribeuncontrollablenaturaleventssuchasfloodsorfreezingtemperaturesBcanbeselectedbythedecisionmakerCcannotbeenumeratedbythedecisionmakerDAllofthealternativesaretrue.第3題Apayoff().AisalwaysmeasuredinprofitBisalwaysmeasuredincostCexistsforeachpairofdecisionalternativeandstateofnatureDexistsforeachstateofnature第4題Makingagooddecision().ArequiresprobabilitiesforallstatesofnatureBrequiresaclearunderstandingofdecisionalternatives,statesofnature,andpayoffsCimpliesthatadesirableoutcomewilloccurDAllofthealternativesaretrue.第5題Adecisiontree().ApresentsalldecisionalternativesfirstandfollowsthemwithallstatesofnatureBpresentsallstatesofnaturefirstandfollowsthemwithalldecisionalternativesCalternatesthedecisionalternativesandstatesofnatureDarrangesdecisionalternativesandstatesofnatureintheirnaturalchronologicalorder第6題Whichofthemethodsfordecisionmakingwithoutprobabilitiesbestprotectsthedecisionmakerfromundesirableresults?()ATheoptimisticapproachBTheconservativeapproachCMinimumregretDMinimaxregret第7題Sensitivityanalysisconsiders().AhowsensitivethedecisionmakeristoriskBchangesinthenumberofstatesofnatureCchangesinthevaluesofthepayoffsDchangesintheavailablealternatives第8題Sampleinformationwithanefficiencyratingof100%isperfectinformation.()第9題Statesofnatureshouldbedefinedsothatoneandonlyonewillactuallyoccur.()第10題Decisionalternativesarestructuredsothatseveralcouldoccursimultaneously.()第11題Squarenodesinadecisiontreeindicatethatadecisionmustbemade.()第12題Circularnodesinadecisiontreeindicatethatitwouldbeincorrecttochooseapathfromthenode.()第13題Riskanalysishelpsthedecisionmakerrecognizethedifferencebetweentheexpectedvalueofadecisionalternativeandthepayoffthatmayactuallyoccur.()第14題Theexpectedvalueofanalternativecanneverbenegative.()第15題Expectedvalueisthesumoftheweightedpayoffpossibilitiesatacircularnodeinadecisiontree.()Assignment9第1題Adecisionwithmorethanoneobjective().AcannothaveanoptimalsolutionBrequiresthedecisionmakertoplacetheobjectivesinsomeorderofimportanceCdependsontheprobabilityofsatisfyingeachobjectiveDshouldbedecomposedintoaseparatemodelforeachobjective第2題Variablesthatindicatethedistanceatargetisfromthelevelachievedarecalled().AgoalvariablesBtargetvariablesCdeviationvariablesDpreemptivevariables第3題Preemptiveprioritiesingoalprogramming().AshowthetargetvaluesfortheproblemBpreventsacrificeofagoaltosatisfyalowerleveloneCforcetheproblemtobeastandardlinearprogramDlimitdeviationsto

d?only第4題Deviationvariablesthatoccurintheobjectivefunctionindicate().AthetargetsBtheprioritiesConlytheareasthatareofconcernD