中文 3150 字 畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯 出 處： open economies review 作 者 S AMAR VERMAM 原 文： Export Competitiveness of Indian Textile and Garment Industry INTRODUCTION The international trade in textile and clothing sectors has been a egregious exception to the most favoured nation principle of GATT and, since the early 1960s, has been a case of managed trade through forced consensus. However, the WTO Agreement on Textile and Clothing (ATC) marked a significant turnaround. According to the ATC,beginning 1st January 1995, all textiles and clothing products that had been hitherto subjected to MFA-quota, are scheduled to be integrated into WTO over a period of ten years. “The dismantling of the quota regime represents both an opportunity as well as a threat. An opportunity because markets will no longer be restricted; a threat because markets will no longer be guaranteed by quotas, and even the domestic market will be open to competition”. From 1st January 2005, therefore, all textile and clothing products would be traded internationally without quota-restrictions. And this impending reality brings the issue of competitiveness to the fore for all firms in the textile and clothing sectors,including those in India. It is imperative to understand the true competitiveness of Indian textile and clothing firms in order to make an assessment of what lies ahead in 2005 and beyond. Owing to its significant contribution, the Indian textile and clothing industry occupies a unique place in the Indian economy. It contributes about 4% of GDP and 14% of industrial output. Second largest employer after agriculture, the industry provides direct employment to 35 million people including substantial segments of weaker sections of society. With a very low import-intensity of about 1.5% only, it is the largest net foreign exchange earner in India, earning almost 35% of foreign exchange. This is the only industry that is self-sufficient and complete in cotton value chain- producing everything from fibres to the highest value added finished product of garments. Its growth and vitality therefore has critical bearings on the Indian economy at large. What Is Competitiveness? Competitiveness is about productivity, which in turn is a function of factors related to cost of products, as well as those related to non-price factors such as delivery schedules, reliability of producers, and such intangible factors like image of the country/company and brand equity. Together, they define the competitive sinews of a product to compete under conditions of free market. However, in order to translate industry competitiveness into sales (greater export share in world market), another set of issues- in addition to productivity- need to be examined. These relate to market access conditions. Indeed, industry competitiveness of restrained exporters such as India was not much of an issue during the last almost four decades, ever since the Short Term Arrangement (STA) of 1961. And the reason lay not in price and non-price factors, but in the managed conditions under which global trade in textile and clothing products took place. In fact, it was precisely because of the price competitiveness of some Asian exporters in the 1950s and the 1960s that the “generally and solemnly agreed rules of post-war policy conduct- including the keystone of the system, the non-discrimination rules- were formally set aside for reasons regarded as pragmatic”. This system of managed trade, however, will come to an end on 31st December 2004. For the purpose of this study, industry has been defined as a group of firms manufacturing products that directly or indirectly competes with each other. It is implied that no nation can be competitive in manufacturing all goods and services. Hence, industry competitiveness of an entire nation is not quite meaningful. Instead, since it is the firms who compete in international markets, the entire framework of competitiveness would revolve around the study of the firm. “industrial success was founded on behaviour of firms, not on the decisions of governments”. The list of products (industries) identified is in Appendix A. Objective & Scope Of The Study The objective of the project is to evaluate the export competitiveness of Indian textile and clothing sectors. Because Indian textile and clothing sector is predominantly cotton based, this study would focus mainly on the cotton textile and apparel, and look at the entire value chain from fibre to garment and retail distribution. With the aforementioned objective in mind, this study has first identified the products in Indian export basket which have shown a promising growth in value, or in unit value and have a considerable weight in the Indian export basket on the basis of recent performance of Indian exports of textile and clothing sectors in the US and EU markets. Research Methodology In order to evaluate the demand-side of Indian textile and clothing exports, the study has analysed the competitive performance of Indian exports of the identifiedproducts in the US and EU markets. It has also been used to highlight the role of emerging trade policy environment- specifically, the role of discriminatory rules of origin in Regional Trading Arrangements RTAs, tariff peaks and environmental and labour standards- as market access issues relevant to textile and clothing exporting countries. To assess the supply-side factors of export competitiveness, a preliminary interview was conducted with a few exporters. The interview sought their views and opinions chiefly in respect of the supply-side bottlenecks that they are facing in India. The supply-side framework is based more on opinions than on data/ numbers. The inferences about the supply-side factors are therefore based on the opinions expressed by exporters of identified products. GLOBAL TRADE IN TEXTILE AND CLOTHING: INDIAS COMPETITIVE PERFORMANCE During the MFA period, the textile exporters from industrial countries and those from developing countries merely changed shares between themselves during the 24 years period. The share of industrial countries declined by almost as much (19.2%) as was the gain in the share of developing countries (18.8%). Clothing exporters.however, exhibit significant changes, with the share of top 13 exporters having declined by 13.8%. New entrants have come in as well as some old ones have been knocked out. Of these new entrants, most- if not all- are from developing countries, since the share of industrial countries has declined during the period, and that of developing countries has increased. The countries that are gaining share in clothing exports are the ones whose industries are integrated to one or the other advanced country through some policy-induced preferential arrangements. Mexico, Caribbean region, East European countries and Mediterranean countries are capturing much of the space vacated. There has been a much deeper globalisation in clothing than in textiles. Indeed, that has been one of the principal reasons for the developed countries agreeing to an eventual phase-out of MFA quota in the UR of negotiations. During the MFA period, (between 1973 to 1997, to be precise), while in textiles, there was an inexorable shift away from developed countries and to developing countries at large, in clothing the shift away from developed countries is increasingly being grabbed by preferred developing countries.Thus, in clothing, the non-preferred group of developing countries is fighting amongst themselves for a pie that is increasingly declining. One should expect a much higher level of intra-industry and intra-firm trade in clothing than in textiles. This is entirely compatible with the fact that it is the trade in clothing that is growing faster than that in textiles. And this trend is likely to deepen, as clothing retailers consolidate, and Outward Processing Trade (OPT) traffic increases. The opportunity clearly lies much more in clothing, though the caveat is that the exporting country would have to achieve the preferred status, and integrate its manufacturing with that of an importing country in order to continue exporting to the restricted markets. The pressure to export would intensify in the years to come since 80% of additional output during 1995-2005 is expected to be located in developing countries. On the other hand, only 50% of the additional fibre consumption would originate in developing countries. Indias Competitive Performance in the US 1.Of the eight cotton apparels, Indias market share (in 2000) in US import market exceeded 10% in cotton dresses (336), W&G woven shirts (341), and cotton skirts (342). Market share grew in 336 and 341. In 336, India exported higher quantity at reduced prices, while in 341, India moved up the value chain. But the US import market grew strongly in 341 and 342, and not as much in 336. However, in 341, the size of quota is close to the size of US home market, whereas in 336, about 43% of US home market would be opened only on 1st January 2005. Therefore, not much growth should be expected in 341 in terms of US market size. Besides, there are no current threats from preferred developing countries in 341 yet. Hence this is one category where India should very clearly focus, since the competitor countries are essentially Asian. The one big threat, would be China. Currently, China exports at an appreciably higher uvr compared to India. The evidence from 1995-2000 indicate that China has upgraded its 341 faster than India has. If China continues on that path, India may not worry too much, since the gap between Indian and Chinese prices would be quite significant. But then, if India also upgrades its product, as it has done in 341, competitiveness based only on price will be extremely risky. 2. In descending order of uvr, Indian exports of the chosen cotton apparels belong to between 40 and 50 percentile, among all supplier countries for a given MFA product category. Which means India operates in the low value segment in most cotton apparels in the US. However, it is interesting to note that there are three cotton apparels whose uvr have been between percentiles 55 and 60. They are knit shirts (cat 338) and trousers for M&B (cat 347) and for W&G (cat 348). Incidentally, US imports of these products is growing fastest among all cotton apparel categories. However, India has lost market share in all except 347 during 1995-2000. In 347, its unit prices have grown fastest among top ten suppliers. And almost 70% of US market remain to become quota-free only on 1st January 2005. India must build up its strength in this product category quickly to capture the huge market that would suddenly open in 2005. Quite apart from preferred group of developing countries, Pakistan is one country which has done exceedingly well in 347, and has been building its domestic manufacturing facilities very fast. But Pakistan is not yet as much of a threat since its unit value is considerably lower than India. China, however, is likely to emerge as a big threat to India in 347 since their uvr is closer to Indias and they too are upgrading their product rapidly. Their market share declined due wholly to quota constraint. But they seem to be producing less numbers, and better quality of 347 for US export market. They would pose a big challenge to India. 3. In cotton apparels, the competitor countries- aside from preferred developing countries- are Indonesia, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Philippines, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. From among these, Bangladesh is the lowest cost supplier in almost all categories. In view of the threat from preferred developing countries, India must move away from competing only on the basis of price, since the share of this segment is any case declining with the preferred countries growing rapidly in this segment. And when India upgrades its value, it would have to contend with strong Asian competitors like Hong Kong, China and South Korea, whose performance has been constrained due to quota ceilings. But once the quotas are removed, India may find itself again losing in this upgraded market segment due to sheer size of these countries exports. The important lesson for India therefore is that it must not only upgrade its values, but also begin to find ways of competing increasingly on non-price factors. 譯文 印度服裝紡織行業(yè)的出口競爭力 一、簡介 20 世紀(jì) 60 年代初以來，紡織和服裝部門的國際貿(mào)易一直是在關(guān)貿(mào)總協(xié)定和最惠國待遇原則之外的，一直都是通過強(qiáng)迫達(dá)成的共識。然而，從 1995 年 1月 1 日開始，世界貿(mào)易組織紡織品與服裝協(xié)議（ ATC）的實施標(biāo)志著一個重大的轉(zhuǎn)變。所有的紡織品和服裝產(chǎn)品將在加入 WTO 之后有為期十年的配額，這些配額有 MFA 決定。配額制度的拆除代表的是一種機(jī)遇，也是一種威脅。機(jī)會是因為市場不會受到限制；威脅是市場將不再受配額得到保證，甚至將開放國內(nèi)的市場競爭。從 2005 年 1 月 1 號開始，所有的紡織 品和服裝產(chǎn)品的國際貿(mào)易將沒有限額配置。這即將到來的現(xiàn)實給從印度所有的服裝和紡織行業(yè)公司帶來了競爭力方面的問題。 2005 年之后的印度服裝和紡織行業(yè)的競爭力問題是怎么樣的，當(dāng)務(wù)之急是了解其中的真相。 由于其顯著貢獻(xiàn)，印度的服裝和紡織行業(yè)在印度經(jīng)濟(jì)中占有顯著的地位。它貢獻(xiàn)了大約 4%的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值和 14%的工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值。其就業(yè)人口達(dá)到了 35 萬人，是僅次于農(nóng)業(yè)和工業(yè)提供就業(yè)人口的第二大產(chǎn)業(yè)。在印度 1.5%的低強(qiáng)度下，它是印度最大的凈收入來源，占有近 35%的外匯。這個行業(yè)是唯一的自給自足的從價值鏈生產(chǎn)到成品的最佳附加值的 產(chǎn)業(yè)。它的增長是印度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)鍵所在。 二、什么是競爭力 競爭力是一種生產(chǎn)力，是關(guān)于 一組相關(guān)的產(chǎn)品成本因素的作用，以及那些涉及非價格因素，如交貨時間，生產(chǎn)商的可靠性，如一個國家 或者 公司的形象等無形因素品牌權(quán)益 的生產(chǎn)力 。 他們是在自由市場條件下一個產(chǎn)品的競爭力。 然而，為了將產(chǎn)業(yè)競爭力更多的進(jìn)入到一種銷售（更大的世界市場出口份額），另一些的生產(chǎn)力的競爭力需要被檢查。事實上，自從 1961 年的短期安排（ STA）開始，這些涉及市場準(zhǔn)入條件，行業(yè)限制的問題，如印度出口商的競爭力等在過去 40 年的問題很多。其原因不在于 價格也非價格的因素的條件，是在“管理”的條件下，在紡織和服裝產(chǎn)品的全球貿(mào)易中發(fā)生的。事實上，正是因為20 世紀(jì) 50-60 年代一些亞洲出口商的價格競爭力的“普遍商定的規(guī)則，并鄭重戰(zhàn)后政策的行為，包括體系的基石，以及不歧視規(guī)則作為務(wù)實等的原因”。 但是，這種貿(mào)易體系將出現(xiàn)到 2004 年 13 月 31 日底。就本研究的目的，行業(yè)內(nèi)被定義為一個廠商之間的直接或間接的相互競爭。這是任何國家和企業(yè)在生產(chǎn)商品或服務(wù)的時候都隱含的競爭。因此，整個名族工業(yè)的競爭力就不太有意義了。相反，因為它是企業(yè)在國際市場上的競爭，競爭力的整個框架將 圍繞在該公司進(jìn)行?！?工業(yè)的成功是建立在企業(yè)的行為，而不是對政府的決策?！痹摦a(chǎn)品的名單確定在附錄 A 。 三、目標(biāo)及研究范圍 該項目的目的是評估印度紡織和服裝部門的出口競爭力。 由于印度紡織和服裝行業(yè)主要 是在 棉的基礎(chǔ)上 的 ，研究將主要集中在棉紡織品和服裝，并 從整個纖維到服裝的成品等價值鏈到分銷，零售等上研究。隨著上述的目標(biāo)研究，這項研究首次發(fā)現(xiàn)，印度的出口產(chǎn)品在在美國和歐盟市場的紡織品和服裝部門在相當(dāng)大的比重的基礎(chǔ)上近期表現(xiàn)出價值或單位價值成長潛力。 四、研究方法 為了評估印度紡織品和服裝出口方面的需求 ，文中研究了印度出口產(chǎn)品在美國和歐盟的市場所確定的的產(chǎn)品的競爭力的性能。它也被用于突出新興貿(mào)易政策具體環(huán)境的作用下，原產(chǎn)地規(guī)則的歧視性區(qū)域貿(mào)易安排 區(qū)域貿(mào)易協(xié)定 ，關(guān)稅高峰和環(huán)境的作用 和勞工標(biāo)準(zhǔn)相關(guān)問題的紡織品和服裝出口國家的市場準(zhǔn)入。 為了評估供應(yīng)方面因素的出口競爭力，對一些國家的紡織品和服裝出口的供應(yīng)商進(jìn)行就勞工標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的相關(guān)問題進(jìn)行初步的訪談。 此次訪談主要是尋求他們在印度供應(yīng)方面的 問題 ，面臨 對他們的 意見和看法。供給方面的框架 是就 基礎(chǔ)之上的意見 以 數(shù)據(jù) /數(shù)字 為準(zhǔn) 。 關(guān)于供應(yīng)方面因素的推論是根據(jù)所確定產(chǎn)品出口的情況。 五、紡織品和服裝的全球貿(mào)易：印度的競爭表現(xiàn) 在 MFA 期間，來自工業(yè)國家和發(fā)展中國家的紡織品出口只是在 24 年之間的配額有所改變。其中，工業(yè)國家的和發(fā)展中國家的配額下降的幾乎一樣，工業(yè)國家下降了（ 19.2%），發(fā)展中國家下降了（ 18.8%）。然而，服裝出口自從在出口產(chǎn)品排名 13 位后的表現(xiàn)了顯著的下降了 13.8%。行業(yè)進(jìn)入以及一些舊的已經(jīng)被淘汰了。由于工業(yè)化的國家的份額在下降，這些新進(jìn)入者都是來自于發(fā)展中國家。這些 國家正在爭取那些其集成到一個或通過其他一些 政策性優(yōu)惠安排先進(jìn)國家的工業(yè)在服裝出口中的份額 。 墨西哥，加勒比海地區(qū)，東歐國家和地中海國家抓住了其中 大部分的空間 。而服裝比紡織品跟有全球化的深度。事實上，這些都因為在烏拉圭回合談判中被發(fā)達(dá)國家淘汰了。 在 MFA 期間（更準(zhǔn)確的說是在 1973 年到 1997 年），在紡織品有個必然的轉(zhuǎn)變，發(fā)