1、附件2論文中英文摘要格式作者姓名：巫強論文題目：進口引致型出口：中國出口成長的實現(xiàn)機制研究作者簡介：巫強，男，1979年11月出生，2005年9月師從于南京大學(xué)劉志彪教授，于2008年6月獲博士學(xué)位。中文摘要改革開放后我國出口規(guī)模高速增長，2007年我國出口額是1980年出口額的67倍，年均 增長率達到16.9%;同時我國貨物貿(mào)易出口額占世界總出口額的比重從1980年的0.89%上升 到2006年的8%,居世界第三位。我國出口規(guī)模的高速增長在世界范圍內(nèi)都很罕見，可以認(rèn) 為是一個出口奇跡。但我國的出口貿(mào)易是如何成長為出口奇跡的呢？與此對應(yīng)的現(xiàn)實是我國進口越多的地區(qū)出口也越多，而且是進口機器設(shè)備越

2、多的地區(qū)出 口會越多。這反映了機器設(shè)備進口在我國出口成長過程中起到重要的促進作用。本論文從現(xiàn) 實經(jīng)濟現(xiàn)象出發(fā)，抽象出“進口引致型出口”范式，以此來闡述我國出口成長的實現(xiàn)機制?！斑M口引致型出口”是指在我國裝備行業(yè)落后的情況下，出口行業(yè)大量進口來自國外的先進 機器設(shè)備等資本貨物后促進我國出口貿(mào)易規(guī)模的持續(xù)高速增長；它是技術(shù)要素跨國流動促進 機器設(shè)備進口國出口規(guī)模擴大的效應(yīng)。本論文將宏觀上我國出口成長的過程與微觀上廠商生 產(chǎn)過程的主要特征，即機器設(shè)備的使用聯(lián)系起來，從而為解釋我國出口奇跡尋找到更為扎實 的現(xiàn)實基礎(chǔ)。本論文圍繞“進口引致型出口” ，即機器設(shè)備進口如何促進產(chǎn)品出口進行了全面闡述。本 論文

3、的研究路徑如下。由于“進口引致型出口”是一個全新范式，所以本論文首先從經(jīng)驗上 證明“進口引致型出口”的存在性，然后再通過構(gòu)建理論模型來解釋“進口引致型出口”的 內(nèi)在機制與實現(xiàn)條件。以上兩部分都是對“進口引致型出口”的直接研究，但是出口奇跡的 實現(xiàn)必然要求生產(chǎn)過程體現(xiàn)為出口市場導(dǎo)向，即要按照國際市場消費者需求和國際市場標(biāo)準(zhǔn) 來組織生產(chǎn)，所以本論文研究在國外對產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量提出更高要求、即實施技術(shù)性貿(mào)易措施背景 下“進口引致型出口”實現(xiàn)條件，并將其與自主創(chuàng)新的實現(xiàn)條件進行了對比分析。最后，本 論文總結(jié)了 “進口引致型出口”產(chǎn)生的經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)，并從政策層面上分析了 “進口引致型出口”。本論文在緒論部分先提出了

4、本論文研究的問題是中國出口成長的實現(xiàn)機制，即要從“進 口引致型出口”角度來解釋中國的出口奇跡；接著對“進口引致型出口”進行全面界定，其 中包括“進口引致型出口”的定義以及與相關(guān)概念的辨析；然后從兩個方面回顧了與“進口 引致型出口”相關(guān)的理論文獻，分別是對中國出口原因與影響因素的研究、出口和進口關(guān)系 的研究；最后是介紹了本論文的研究思路、研究方法以及可能的創(chuàng)新與不足。在第二章對“進口引致型出口”的經(jīng)驗研究中，本論文先以紡織業(yè)為例描述了該行業(yè)中 的機器設(shè)備進口與產(chǎn)品出口現(xiàn)象，并測算了該行業(yè)中機器設(shè)備進口與產(chǎn)品出口之間的相關(guān)關(guān) 系；然后采用平穩(wěn)性檢驗、Granger因果檢驗方法， 從宏觀層面上證明我

5、國機器設(shè)備進口額是 產(chǎn)品出口額的Granger原因，并運用協(xié)整方法揭示了這兩者之間的長期均衡關(guān)系；為了進一 步研究“進口引致型出口 ”在產(chǎn)業(yè)層面的存在性，本論文構(gòu)建了15組產(chǎn)業(yè)層面的專用性機器設(shè)備進口額與產(chǎn)品出口額數(shù)據(jù)，同樣采用平穩(wěn)性檢驗和Granger因果檢驗方法，發(fā)現(xiàn)機器設(shè)備進口在絕大多數(shù)涉及的行業(yè)中都是產(chǎn)品出口的Granger原因。由此，本論文證明了 “進口引致型出口”的存在性。本論文在第三章通過構(gòu)建理論模型來研究“進口引致型出口”的內(nèi)在動力機制，其本質(zhì)上是要解釋“進口引致型出口”的實現(xiàn)條件。本論文先借用了Batra和Casas(1973)中的中問品貿(mào)易模型，從HO理論的角度論證了發(fā)達國

6、家出口機器設(shè)備給發(fā)展中國家，后者用進口 的機器設(shè)備生產(chǎn)最終產(chǎn)品并出口給前者這種貿(mào)易分工格局的合理性，對于兩者都有利。然后 本論文認(rèn)為發(fā)展中國家進口機器設(shè)備的原因很容易被理解，但是發(fā)達國家出口機器設(shè)備給發(fā) 展中國家的理由需要研究，“進口引致型出口”的內(nèi)在動力或?qū)崿F(xiàn)條件主要在于解釋后者。于 是本論文構(gòu)建模型論證了當(dāng)發(fā)達國家生產(chǎn)機器設(shè)備的上游廠商處于完全壟斷市場，而發(fā)展中 國家生產(chǎn)最終產(chǎn)品的下游廠商處于壟斷競爭市場時，發(fā)達國家向發(fā)展中國家出口機器設(shè)備后 使得后者下游行業(yè)廠商數(shù)量增加及均衡定價下降的實現(xiàn)條件；并且推導(dǎo)出發(fā)達國家將機器設(shè) 備出口給發(fā)展中國家下游廠商，并縱向轉(zhuǎn)移技術(shù)后，能從后者進口更為價格

7、低廉的最終產(chǎn)品， 即實現(xiàn)縱向壓榨、提升自身收益的實現(xiàn)條件。這就從發(fā)達國家角度提出了其愿意出口機器設(shè) 備給發(fā)展中國家下游廠商的一個新的解釋，當(dāng)然它也是“進口引致型出口”的實現(xiàn)條件。由于我國出口成長必然要求出口廠商以國際市場標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來組織生產(chǎn)，所以國外技術(shù)性貿(mào)易 措施構(gòu)成了我國出口成長的重要約束。那么“進口引致型出口”如何解決這一約束將有助于 我們更為全面地理解我國出口成長的完整過程。本論文第四章在第三章理論模型的基礎(chǔ)上， 研究了面對技術(shù)性貿(mào)易措施，我國出口廠商從“進口引致型出口”演變?yōu)椤斑M口引致型出口 循環(huán)”的內(nèi)在機制，推導(dǎo)出其采用“進口引致型出口循環(huán)”策略的實現(xiàn)條件。當(dāng)然，考慮到 我國出口廠商也可

8、以采用投資研發(fā)、即自主創(chuàng)新策略來解決出口成長中的這一約束，所以本 論文還分析了出口廠商采用自主創(chuàng)新策略跨越技術(shù)性貿(mào)易措施的實現(xiàn)條件，然后將自主創(chuàng)新策略與“進口引致型出口循環(huán)”策略進行比較分析，得出了相應(yīng)的選擇條件在對“進口引致型出口”從經(jīng)驗和理論兩個方面進行了細(xì)致研究后，本論文在第五章總結(jié)了 “進口引致型出口”的經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)。在微觀層面上，“進口引致型出口”使得出口廠商生產(chǎn) 規(guī)模擴大，單位成本降低，促進新產(chǎn)品研發(fā)生產(chǎn)，提高出口產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量，出口廠商不合理重復(fù) 進口機器設(shè)備。在宏觀層面上，“進口引致型出口”導(dǎo)致我國進口貿(mào)易增長迅速，促進我國外 貿(mào)增長，提高出口行業(yè)整體生產(chǎn)效率，整體出口規(guī)模擴大，出口結(jié)構(gòu)

9、優(yōu)化，促進我國經(jīng)濟增 長，限制我國外貿(mào)可持續(xù)增長中的技術(shù)升級?？傊?，“進口引致型出口”的經(jīng)濟效應(yīng)大多為正 面效應(yīng)，但是也存在負(fù)面效應(yīng)。所以為了盡可能發(fā)揮“進口引致型出口”的正面效應(yīng)而降低 其負(fù)面效應(yīng)，本論文還提出了有關(guān)政策建議：總體保持鼓勵機器設(shè)備進口，合理平衡“進口 引致型出口”與我國裝備制造業(yè)之間關(guān)系，鼓勵支持“進口引致型出口”中的模仿創(chuàng)新。關(guān)鍵詞：進口引致型出口；技術(shù)性貿(mào)易措施；進口引致型出口循環(huán)；壟斷競爭Import-induced Export: Study on the Realization Mechanism of ChineseExport GrowthWu QiangABS

10、TRACTAfter reform and openness, Chinese export scale kept expanding with high speed. In 2007, the value ofChinese export is 67 times of the value of 1980, annual growth rate of 16.9%. Meanwhile, the ratio ofChinese exports value to world exports value increased from 0.89% in 1980 to 8% in 2006, bein

11、g the thirdlargest one in the world. The high expanding speed of Chinese export is unique in the world which can beregarded as an export miracle. But how does Chinese export turn into the export miracle?The corresponding fact is the regions in China which import more also export more, and the region

12、s whichimport more machinery and equipment also export more, which both reflect the important promoting effectof imported machinery and equipment in the Chinese export growth. This paper proposes the term ofImport-induced Export from realistic economic fact, in order to explain the realization mecha

13、nism ofChinese export growth. Import-induced Export means given the lag of Chinese equipment manufacturingindustry, exporting industries import foreign advanced machinery and equipment with large amount, whichboots the rapid expanding of Chinese exporting size, which also means the facilitating effe

14、ct ofinternational technology transfer on the expanding of exporting size for machinery and equipmentimporting countries. This dissertation links the process of Chinese export growth in the macro level withthe main characteristic of production process in the micro level, which is the use of machiner

15、y andequipment, and which offers better realistic base for explaining Chinese exporting miracle.Focusing on Import-induced Export, this dissertation analyzes how the imported machinery and equipmentpromotes the export of products. The research route is as following. Because Import-induced Export is

16、anew term, this dissertation firstly demonstrates the existence of Import-induced Export empirically, andthen constructs a theoretical model to analyze the mechanism and realization condition of Import-inducedExport. The above two parts are the direct research on Import-induced Export, but the reali

17、zation ofexporting miracle definitely requires that the production process should be exporting market oriented,which means to organize the production according to the foreign consumer demand and internationalmarket standard. So this dissertation studies the realization condition of Import-induced Ex

18、port under thetechnical trade barrier when foreign countries set higher standard on the quality of product, and comparesthis condition with the condition of independent innovation. Finally, this dissertation concludes theeconomic effect of Import-induced Export, and gives policy proposals about it.I

19、n the introduction chapter, this dissertation proposes the research object is the realization mechanism ofChinese export growth, which meansit would explain the Chinese export miracle based on Import-inducedExport, and then defines Import-induced Export, including comparison with other terms. Then t

20、his partreviews the literature related to Import-induced Export from two aspects. The last part introduces theresearch route, research method and possible innovation and shortage.In the second chapter of empirical research, this dissertation describes the machinery and equipmentimports and product e

21、xports in the textile industry, and calculates the correlation relationship betweenmachinery and equipment imports and product exports in this industry. Then it demonstrates Chinesemachinery and equipment imports value grangerly causes product exports by taking the stationary test,Granger test in th

22、e macro level, and finds the long term equilibrium between these two variables by takingCointegration method. In order to further proving the existence of Import-induced Export, this chapterconstructs 15 pairs of data in the industry level which is about the specific machinery and equipmentimports a

23、nd corresponding product exports, and with the same methods before, it finds specific machineryand equipment imports grangerly causes product exports in most pairs, which demonstrates the existence ofgrangerly causes product exports in the industry level.In the third chapter, it constructs the theor

24、etical model to study the internal driving power ofImport-induced Export, which in essenceis about the realization condition of Import-induced Export. Byciting the intermediate trade model of Batras and Casas (1973), it proves the benefits of this trade patternfrom the framework of HO theory, in whi

25、ch developed country exports machinery and equipment todeveloping country, and the latter produces and exports final product to the former by using the importedmachinery and equipment. It is very easy to understand the motivation of developing country to importmachinery and equipment, so this disser

26、tation focuses on the motivation of developed country to exportmachinery and equipment, which should be the main aspect of the internal driving power of Import-inducedExport. So it develops a model to show the condition of the increasing of the number of downwardmanufacturers and the condition of th

27、e decreasing of the price of them after trade of machinery andequipment from upper manufacturer, when the upper manufacturer of developed country who produces andexports machinery and equipment is monopoly, and the downward manufacturers of developing countrywho produces final products are in the ma

28、rket of monopolistic competition. And it also gets the realizationcondition for developed country to improve its return and vertically compress by importing cheaper finalproduct from developing country after the former exports machinery and equipment and vertically transferstechnology to the latter.

29、 This is a new explanation for developed country to export machinery andequipment to developing countrys downward manufacturers, which is also the realization condition ofImport-induced Export.Foreign technical trade barrier (TBT) forms the important constraint for Chinese exporting growth,becauseth

30、e latter requires the exporting firms to produce according to the international market standard. Soit is helpful for us to understand the whole process of exporting growth by studying how Import-inducedExport reacts to this constraint. The fourth chapter studies the internal mechanism how Chinese ex

31、portingfirms evolve from Import-induced Export to Import-induced Export Cycle facing TBT and gets thecondition for them to choose Import-induced Export Cycle strategy. On the other side, exporting firms canchoose to invest in R&D activity, which means the independent innovation strategy facing T

32、BT, so thisdissertation also gets the condition for them to choose independent innovation strategy, and compares thesetwo conditions to get the selection criteria.After detailed analysis on the Import-induced Export theoretically and empirically, this dissertationconcludes the economic effect of Import-induced Export。In micro level, Import-induced Export causes theincreasing of production size of exporting firms, decreasi