1、中國“十三五”能源發(fā)展展望China Energy Development Outlook in the 13th Five-Year Plan Period中國澳門 Macao, China 26 November, 2014韓文科國家發(fā)展和改革委員會能源研究所Han WenkeDirector General, Energy Research Institute, NDRC China第三屆國際清潔能源論壇The 3rd International Forum for Clean EnergyOutline一、當(dāng)前的中國能源經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢1. The current situation of C

2、hinas energy economy二、“十三五”能源政策框架和發(fā)展展望2. Energy policy framework and development outlook in the 13th Five-Year Plan period Outline一、當(dāng)前的中國能源經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢1. The current situation of Chinas energy economy二、“十三五”能源政策框架和發(fā)展展望2. Energy policy framework and development outlook in the 13th Five-Year Plan period 經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展處

3、于“三期疊加” 進(jìn)入新常態(tài)Economic development is “three period superimposed” and enters the “new normal” 伴隨經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)入新常態(tài)，中國的能源供需形勢也出現(xiàn)了重大的變化。 2014年前三季度，能源消費(fèi)增量、增速出現(xiàn)不同程度的下降，國內(nèi)能源產(chǎn)量與去年基本相當(dāng)，部分品種甚至出現(xiàn)負(fù)增長，能源供需總體寬裕，煤炭、電力、煉油能力出現(xiàn)不同程度的富余，能源價格穩(wěn)中走降，預(yù)計(jì)2014年全年能源供應(yīng)總體寬松，能源產(chǎn)銷保持低增長的態(tài)勢。There have been significant changes in Chinas energ

4、y supply and demand pattern along with the “new normal” of Chinas economic growth pace.The incremental growth and growth rate of energy consumption declined in the first 3 quarters of 2014. Domestic energy production is at the similar level as last year, with several products seeing negative growth.

5、 Energy market is overall loose, with different levels of excess supply capacity of coal, power and refinery. Energy prices are stable with downward trend.It is expected that the annual energy supply for 2014 will be loose and energy sales will maintain low growth. 一次能源消費(fèi)總量年增量由2003-2011年的平均2.1億tce，降

6、至2012-2013年的平均1.3億tce。Annual incremental growth in primary energy consumption reduced to 130Mtce in 2012-13, from an annual average of 210Mtce during 2003-11.一次能源消費(fèi)增量下降Increment declines in primary energy consumption 能源消費(fèi)增速由2003-2011年平均8.1%降至2012-2013年不到4%Annual growth rate of energy consumption red

7、uced to less than 4% in 2012-13 from an annual average of 8.1% during 2003-11.一次能源消費(fèi)增速下降Growth rate declines in primary energy consumption煤炭消費(fèi)增速由2003-2011年平均8.5%降至2012-2013年的2.6%Annual growth rate of coal consumption reduced to 2.6% in 2012-13 from an annual average of 8.5% during 2003-11.煤炭消費(fèi)增速下降Gr

8、owth rate declines in coal consumption電力消費(fèi)增速由2003-2011年的年均11.1%下降到2012-2013年的4.2%Annual growth rate of power consumption reduced to 4.2% in 2012-13 from an annual average of 11.1% during 2003-11.電力消費(fèi)增速下降Growth rate declines in power consumption2013年，非化石能源發(fā)電裝機(jī)占總裝機(jī)容量的比例提高到了30.9%，非化石能源發(fā)電量占到了總發(fā)電量的21.6%。

9、預(yù)計(jì)，2014年中國的非化石能源發(fā)電裝機(jī)比重將會達(dá)到32.7%。The power installed capacity of non-fossil energy increased to 30.9% of the total installed capacity. The power generated by non-fossil energy was 21.6% of the annual total in 2013. It is expected that the power installed capacity of non-fossil energy will account for

10、 32.7% in 2014. 非化石能源增長情況Growth in non-fossil energy sources2013年中國各類非化石能源比重Share of non-fossil energy in total energy consumption in 2013NuclearHydropowerWind power PVBiomassOutline一、當(dāng)前的中國能源經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢1. The current situation of Chinas energy economy二、“十三五”能源政策框架和發(fā)展展望2. Energy policy framework and develop

11、ment outlook in the 13th Five-Year Plan period 總體戰(zhàn)略和主要任務(wù)Overall strategy and major tasks節(jié)能優(yōu)先立足國內(nèi)綠色低碳驅(qū)動創(chuàng)新 增強(qiáng)自主保障能力 推進(jìn)能源消費(fèi)革命 優(yōu)化能源結(jié)構(gòu) 深化國際合作 推進(jìn)科技創(chuàng)新Giving priority to energy conservationRelying on domestic sourcesGreen and low carbon developmentPromoting innovation Enhancing domestic energy supply capabi

12、lity and security Pushing forward energy consumption revolution Optimisation of the energy structure Deepening international cooperation Promoting technology innovation“十三五”能源發(fā)展目標(biāo)（1）Goals of energy development in 13th Five-Year Plan period (1)1. 節(jié)約優(yōu)先，控制能源消費(fèi)總量單位GDP能耗進(jìn)一步降低（比2005下降42%）嚴(yán)格控制能源消費(fèi)總量（48億tce

13、以內(nèi)）嚴(yán)格控制煤炭消費(fèi)（42億噸）2. 進(jìn)一步增強(qiáng)國內(nèi)供應(yīng)能力進(jìn)一步提升國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)能力（42億tce）保持合理的能源自給率（85%左右）1. Giving priority to conservation and control total energy consumptionEnergy intensity reduction (energy consumption per unit of GDP drop by 42% from 2005)Strict control of total energy consumption (4.8Btce)Strict control of coal co

14、nsumption (4.2 Billion tons)2. Further enhancing domestic supply capability Further increase of domestic production (4.2Btce)Maintain a reasonable energy self-sufficiency rate (85%)3. 進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)綠色低碳發(fā)展繼續(xù)大力發(fā)展非化石能源（實(shí)現(xiàn)15%的目標(biāo)）進(jìn)一擴(kuò)大天然氣利用（力爭10%目標(biāo)）進(jìn)一步降低煤炭比重（62%以下）高標(biāo)準(zhǔn)實(shí)現(xiàn)CO2減排目標(biāo)4. 大力發(fā)展替代能源和擴(kuò)大進(jìn)口發(fā)展煤基替代石油等擴(kuò)大天然氣進(jìn)口能力3. F

15、urther promoting green and low carbon developmentVigorously developing non-fossil energy (realise the goal of 15%)Expanding natural gas use (aim for 10%)Reducing weight of coal in energy mix (40GW by 2015, 18GW in construction.Installed capacity in operation 58GW by 2020, 30GW in construction. Major policy initiatives on nuclear powerImplementing “Nuclear Safety Plan”, keeping safety the top priorityReviewing “China nuclear power development plan Medium long term - optimising the layout and insisting on quality first深化國際合作的主要舉措Measures o