1、行業(yè)指標(biāo)匯總圖表 1: 房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)指標(biāo)匯總指標(biāo)2019年1-6月2019年1-7月2019年6月單月2019年7月單月2019年6月單月2019年7月單月絕對(duì)量同比增長（%）絕對(duì)量同比增長（%）絕對(duì)量絕對(duì)量同比增長（%）同比增長（%）房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資（億元）61,60910.972,84310.615,53411,23410.18.5其中：住宅45,16715.853,46615.111,3878,29914.411.4房屋施工面積（萬平方米）772,2928.8794,2079.027,00621,9159.515.7其中：住宅538,28410.3554,11110.419,66715,82

2、78.312.2房屋新開工面積（萬平方米）105,50910.1125,7169.525,72520,2078.96.6其中：住宅77,99810.592,8269.618,87314,8287.85.4土地購置面積（萬平方米）8,035-27.59,761-29.42,8651,726-14.3-36.8房屋竣工面積（萬平方米）32,426-12.737,331-11.35,7194,905-14.0-0.6其中：住宅22,929-11.726,374-10.54,0943,445-15.1-1.6商品房銷售面積（萬平方米）75,786-1.888,783-1.320,26812,997-2

3、.21.2其中：住宅66,181-1.077,756-0.417,47311,575-1.83.4辦公樓1,754-10.02,016-10.8503262-4.2-16.0商業(yè)營業(yè)用房4,612-12.35,306-13.11,319694-10.8-18.4商品房銷售額（億元）70,6985.683,1626.218,92512,4644.29.8其中：住宅61,3458.472,4319.216,32411,0867.014.0辦公樓2,483-12.52,835-13.3645352-13.1-18.3商業(yè)營業(yè)用房5,197-10.05,970-10.91,464773-10.6-16

4、.9商品房平均售價(jià)（元/平方米）9,3297.59,3677.79,3379,5906.68.5其中：住宅9,2699.59,3159.69,3429,5788.910.3辦公樓14,156-2.714,063-2.712,82313,435-9.3-2.7商業(yè)營業(yè)用房11,2682.611,2512.511,09911,1380.21.8房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)到位資金（億元）84,9667.299,8007.018,27714,8345.75.8其中：國內(nèi)貸款13,3308.415,3779.52,5682,04722.816.8利用外資4351.86183.61318n.a.n.a.自籌資金26,

5、7314.731,0322.86,4554,3016.4-7.4其他資金44,8628.353,3308.79,2418,4681.311.2其中：定金及預(yù)收款28,4659.033,9809.66,0705,5151.112.8個(gè)人按揭貸款12,80611.115,19811.32,5552,39212.412.2資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局， 圖表 2: 分城市房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)指標(biāo)指標(biāo)名稱 2019.1-62018.1-6同比增長 一線 二線 三四線 全國 一線 二線 三四線 全國 一線 二線 三四線 全國 商品房在建面積(萬平方米)41,625273,000457,667772,29240,33425

6、3,271416,044709,6493.2%7.8%10.0%8.8%其中：住宅21,209177,963339,112538,28420,648163,772303,512487,9332.7%8.7%11.7%10.3%商品房新開工面積(萬平方米)3,71533,10668,688105,5093,62430,71361,48095,8172.5%7.8%11.7%10.1%其中：住宅1,96022,58953,45077,9981,99321,24047,37870,611-1.7%6.4%12.8%10.5%商品房竣工面積(萬平方米)2,04210,05120,33432,4262,

7、57611,08323,47137,131-20.7%-9.3%-13.4%-12.7%其中：住宅1,1286,62515,17722,9291,4167,08017,46525,962-20.4%-6.4%-13.1%-11.7%商品房銷售面積(萬平方米)2,14024,80048,84675,7861,88825,72949,52677,14313.3%-3.6%-1.4%-1.8%其中：住宅1,70420,91743,56066,1811,45921,39743,99666,85216.8%-2.2%-1.0%-1.0%土地購置面積(萬平方米)1462,1045,7858,0352553

8、,2547,57611,085-42.8%-35.3%-23.6%-27.5%房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資額(億元)6,24925,60129,75961,6095,52123,87426,13555,53113.2%7.2%13.9%10.9%其中：住宅3,58418,45223,13045,1673,04716,27019,67338,99017.6%13.4%17.6%15.8%商品房銷售額(億元)7,18130,03033,48670,6985,39928,88032,66666,94533.0%4.0%2.5%5.6%其中：住宅6,02825,08730,23161,3454,36623,8532

9、8,38556,60438.1%5.2%6.5%8.4%商品房銷售價(jià)格（元/平方米）33,55912,1096,8569,32928,59611,2256,5968,67817.4%7.9%3.9%7.5%其中：住宅35,37611,9936,9409,26929,92511,1486,4528,46718.2%7.6%7.6%9.5% HYPERLINK / 請(qǐng)仔細(xì)注:分城市月度數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布時(shí)間滯后于全國數(shù)據(jù)兩周左右. 資料來源：中指數(shù)據(jù)庫， 銷售、投資和新開工圖表 3: 1-7 月商品房銷售面積達(dá) 8.9 億平米，銷售均價(jià) 9,367 元/平米2,0001,8001,6001,4001,200

10、1,000800600400200010,000(百萬平方米)(元/平方米)商品房銷售面積(左軸)商品房銷售單價(jià)(右軸)9,5009,0008,5008,0007,5007,0006,5006,0005,5005,0004,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局， 商品房銷售面積同比增長YTD商品房銷售均價(jià)同比增長YTD.圖表 4: 1-7 月商品房銷售面積累計(jì)同比下滑 1.3%圖表標(biāo)題30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%2016/062016/102017/022017/062017/102018/022018/062

11、018/102019/022019/06資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局， 圖表 5: 7 月單月商品房銷售面積同比增長 1.2%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%商品房銷售面積單月同比增長商品房銷售均價(jià)單月同比增長圖表標(biāo)題. HYPERLINK / 請(qǐng)仔細(xì)2016/062016/102017/022017/062017/102018/022018/062018/102019/022019/06資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局， 房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資同比增長YTD商品房新開工面積同比增長 YTD 商品房施工面積同比增長 YTD圖表 6: 1-7 月房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資累計(jì)同比增長 10.6%20%1

12、8%16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%2016/062016/102017/022017/062017/102018/022018/062018/102019/022019/06資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局， 房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資單月同比增長商品房新開工面積單月同比增長 商品房施工面積單月同比增長圖表 7: 7 月單月房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資同比增長 8.5%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%2016/062016/102017/022017/062017/102018/022018/062018/102019/022019/06資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局， 圖表 8：2019 年上半年房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資占

13、固定資產(chǎn)投資 20%25%20%15%10%5%0%房地產(chǎn)占固定資產(chǎn)投資比例（左軸）固定資產(chǎn)投資增幅（右軸） 房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)投資增幅（右軸）40%30%20%10%0%-10% HYPERLINK / 請(qǐng)仔細(xì)注：2018 年起固定資產(chǎn)投資額采用中金宏觀組調(diào)整后數(shù)字。 資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局， HYPERLINK / 請(qǐng)仔細(xì)土地購置與資金來源土地購置面積同比增長YTD土地購置面積單月同比增長.圖表 9: 7 月單月房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)土地購置面積同比下滑 36.8%圖表標(biāo)題50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%2016/062016/102017/022017/06201

14、7/102018/022018/062018/102019/022019/06資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局， 圖表 10: 房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)企業(yè)到位資金來源分解國內(nèi)貸款自籌資金外資其它資金46.1% 49.9% 47.4% 47.0% 48.0% 41.9% 48.1% 44.8% 43.0% 43.8% 44.6% 40.7% 44.5%50.9% 51.1% 51.8% 53.4%1.2% 1.5%1.9%1.4%1.3%1.7%0.8% 1.1%1.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%28.6%30.3% 33.2% 31.9% 31.6% 39.5%

15、31.3% 36.8% 41.0% 40.5% 38.8% 41.3% 39.2%34.1% 32.6% 33.6% 31.1%23.8% 18.4% 18.1% 19.6% 18.7% 19.0% 19.8% 17.3% 15.1% 15.3% 16.1% 17.4% 16.1% 14.9% 16.2% 14.5% 15.4%100%80%60%40%20%0%2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 7M19資料來源：國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局， 房企銷售數(shù)據(jù)及估值圖表 11: 重點(diǎn)房企月

16、度銷售數(shù)據(jù)公司2019年初至今累計(jì)值同比截至日期2019E完成比例銷售面積(萬平方米)銷售金額(億元)銷售單價(jià)(元/平方米)銷售面積銷售金額銷售均價(jià)銷售目標(biāo)或 中金估計(jì)銷售額(億元)A股萬科2,4643,82215,5135%9%4%2019.76,50059%金地集團(tuán)4981,00420,16715%31%14%2019.72,00050%保利地產(chǎn)1,8242,79715,33312%17%4%2019.75,00056%榮盛發(fā)展48853410,92810%14%4%2019.71,20044%中南建設(shè)75895912,65622%21%-1%2019.72,00048%H股中國海外（港元

17、）1,0682,27321,28311%31%18%2019.73,50065%龍湖集團(tuán)7671,25616,3878%10%2%2019.72,30055%華潤置地6261,18818,98210%26%15%2019.62,42049%融創(chuàng)中國1,7502,55314,59122%13%-8%2019.75,50046%雅居樂46065514,2489%21%11%2019.71,13058%遠(yuǎn)洋集團(tuán)32667920,82826%34%6%2019.71,40048%碧桂園（權(quán)益口徑）3,6053,2459,002-2%-7%-5%2019.75,27062%中國金茂41792822,23

18、174%18%-32%2019.71,60058%世茂房地產(chǎn)6691,20417,99328%42%11%2019.72,10057%中國恒大3,0033,22310,730-8%-7%2%2019.76,00054%合景泰富25142817,03915%14%-1%2019.785050%龍光地產(chǎn)40454613,50780%25%-31%2019.785064%禹洲地產(chǎn)22834515,12626%41%12%2019.767052%旭輝集團(tuán)5941,03017,30018%31%11%2019.71,90054%中海宏洋（港元）27734712,4978%7%-1%2019.758060

19、%中國奧園60330%2019.71,14053%美的置業(yè)51654010,45718%20%2%2019.71,00054%房地產(chǎn)業(yè)88,78383,1629,367-1%6%8%2019.754%資料來源：公司公告，國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局， 圖表 12: A 股地產(chǎn)公司歷史 NAV 折讓水平和動(dòng)態(tài)市盈率 HYPERLINK / 請(qǐng)仔細(xì)A股地產(chǎn)NAV折讓+1 SD: -1%Avg: -21%-1 SD: -42%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%-70%Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19資料來源：公司公告，

20、萬得資訊， 14XA股地產(chǎn)市盈率+1 SD: 10.9xAvg: 8.9x-1 SD: 7.0 x13121110987654Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19圖表 13: 港股地產(chǎn)公司歷史 NAV 折讓水平和動(dòng)態(tài)市盈率港股地產(chǎn)NAV折讓+1 SD: -34%Avg: -41%-1 SD: -48%0%-10%-20%-30%-40%-50%-60%-70%Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19資料來源：公司公告，萬得資訊， 9.0X港股地產(chǎn)遠(yuǎn)期市盈率+1 SD: 7.1xA

21、vg: 6.3x-1 SD: 5.6x8.58.07.57.06.56.05.55.04.54.0Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19圖表 14: A 股可比公司估值公司名稱代碼當(dāng)前評(píng)級(jí)股價(jià)目標(biāo)價(jià)上漲/下跌空間市值每股收益P/E (x)P/B (x)股息收益率每股NAV溢/折價(jià)17A18A19E20E17A18A19E20E17A18A19E20E17A18A19E20EA股地產(chǎn)：側(cè)重開發(fā)(Rmb)(Rmb)(Rmb bn)(Rmb)萬科A000002跑贏行業(yè)27.3336.3533.0%304.12.543.063.834.5610

22、.88.97.16.02.31.91.51.23.3%3.9%4.9%5.8%44.4-38%華夏幸福600340跑贏行業(yè)26.4434.2129.4%79.42.943.914.896.169.06.85.44.32.11.81.51.23.3%4.5%5.7%7.0%68.5-61%保利地產(chǎn)600048跑贏行業(yè)13.6817.8830.7%162.71.311.591.992.3510.48.66.95.81.51.31.10.92.9%3.7%4.6%5.4%24.9-45%華僑城A000069跑贏行業(yè)6.658.3826.0%54.51.051.291.521.726.35.24.43

23、.91.00.90.80.74.5%4.5%5.3%6.0%9.7-31%金地集團(tuán)600383跑贏行業(yè)11.9216.1735.6%53.81.521.792.162.527.96.65.54.71.31.21.00.84.4%5.0%6.0%7.1%21.1-43%金融街000402跑贏行業(yè)7.499.4426.1%22.41.011.091.181.277.46.86.35.90.80.70.60.54.0%4.0%4.3%4.6%12.6-41%榮盛發(fā)展002146跑贏行業(yè)8.1711.0335.0%35.51.321.742.212.596.24.73.73.21.31.10.90.7

24、5.1%5.5%6.8%7.9%20.3-60%濱江集團(tuán)002244跑贏行業(yè)3.764.6824.4%11.70.550.390.470.556.89.68.06.80.80.80.70.72.2%1.6%1.9%2.2%8.2-54%華發(fā)股份600325跑贏行業(yè)7.239.6132.9%15.30.761.081.371.709.56.75.34.31.21.00.90.84.1%2.1%2.6%3.3%14.0-48%中南建設(shè)000961跑贏行業(yè)7.8210.3031.8%29.00.190.591.091.8742.213.27.24.21.91.71.41.10.3%1.5%2.8%4

25、.9%18.0-57%南京高科600064中性8.9510.0712.5%11.10.770.781.011.0611.711.58.98.51.11.21.11.01.1%2.8%3.4%3.5%20.4-56%首開股份600376中性7.178.6020.0%18.50.901.231.431.628.05.85.04.40.60.60.60.58.4%5.6%6.5%7.3%14.6-51%北京城建600266中性7.137.06-1.0%13.40.770.650.780.929.210.99.17.80.70.60.50.53.3%3.3%3.9%4.6%19.6-64%世茂股份60

26、0823中性3.704.3116.6%13.90.590.640.720.846.25.85.14.40.60.60.50.51.6%7.0%7.8%9.0%8.9-59%華遠(yuǎn)地產(chǎn)600743中性2.212.262.3%5.20.350.320.380.416.36.95.95.40.70.70.60.64.5%5.4%5.1%5.6%4.5-50%平均值10.68.06.45.41.31.11.00.83.5%4.0%4.8%5.6%-50%中間值8.56.96.15.01.21.00.90.83.3%4.0%4.8%5.6%-51%市值加權(quán)平均10.88.46.75.61.81.61.31

27、.13.4%4.0%4.9%5.9%-45%A股地產(chǎn)：開發(fā)和持有(Rmb)(Rmb bn)(Rmb)中國國貿(mào)600007中性16.2817.9310.1%16.40.630.770.850.9325.821.219.117.42.52.42.22.13.3%9.4%2.2%2.4%20.4-20%陸家嘴600663中性13.8816.1816.5%49.10.931.001.121.2314.913.912.411.33.32.92.62.33.4%3.6%4.0%4.4%19.6-29%平均值20.417.515.814.32.92.62.42.23.3%6.5%3.1%3.4%-25%中間

28、值20.417.515.814.32.92.62.42.23.3%6.5%3.1%3.4%-25%市值加權(quán)平均17.615.714.112.83.12.82.52.33.3%5.0%3.6%3.9%-27%A股地產(chǎn)：房地產(chǎn)服務(wù)商(Rmb)(Rmb bn)(Rmb)世聯(lián)行002285中性4.004.4210.6%8.20.490.200.220.258.119.718.116.31.61.51.41.32.0%0.5%0.6%0.7%n.a.n.a.注：股價(jià)和市值截至 2019 年 8 月 13 日。資料來源：公司公告，萬得資訊， 圖表 15: 港股可比公司估值公司名稱代碼當(dāng)前評(píng)級(jí)股價(jià)目標(biāo)價(jià)市值

29、每股收益P/E (x)P/B (x)股息收益率每股NAV溢/折價(jià)17A18A19E20E17A18A19E20E17A18A19E20E17A18A19E20EH股地產(chǎn)(HK$)(HK$)(HK$ bn)(HK$)(HK$)(HK$)(HK$)(HK$)中國海外發(fā)展0688.HK跑贏行業(yè)24.4534.58267.883.13.54.14.97.87.06.05.01.00.90.80.73.3%3.7%4.2%5.0%40.88-40%華潤置地1109.HK跑贏行業(yè)30.0541.14208.272.83.43.64.510.68.78.46.71.41.31.11.03.3%4.0%4.2

30、%5.2%45.64-34%中國金茂0817.HK跑贏行業(yè)4.556.2753.490.40.50.60.810.79.17.45.91.31.31.21.05.8%4.8%5.4%6.9%8.37-46%龍湖集團(tuán)0960.HK跑贏行業(yè)26.7038.21159.152.02.53.03.713.710.99.07.21.91.71.51.33.4%4.2%5.1%6.4%40.17-34%世茂房地產(chǎn)0813.HK跑贏行業(yè)20.0029.7366.032.52.93.74.68.16.95.54.31.01.00.90.85.0%6.0%7.3%9.3%38.69-48%遠(yuǎn)洋集團(tuán)3377.HK

31、跑輸行業(yè)2.772.6621.100.60.40.50.64.37.15.84.60.40.40.40.311.6%7.7%10.8%12.6%7.53-63%合景泰富1813.HK跑贏行業(yè)5.989.5618.991.41.41.72.34.44.43.42.70.60.60.50.48.2%10.7%10.2%13.2%17.24-65%碧桂園2007.HK跑贏行業(yè)9.3514.06202.521.41.72.02.36.75.44.64.01.81.51.21.05.1%5.9%6.8%7.8%20.60-55%雅居樂3383.HK跑輸行業(yè)9.099.7235.611.92.01.92.

32、14.94.64.74.30.80.80.70.610.1%10.8%10.5%11.7%21.42-58%龍光地產(chǎn)3380.HK中性10.1012.0455.381.01.41.82.310.17.05.54.32.21.81.51.24.1%7.5%7.4%9.4%18.28-45%旭輝控股0884.HK跑贏行業(yè)4.226.9933.270.70.81.01.36.35.44.33.31.21.21.00.85.5%7.1%8.3%10.8%8.22-49%禹洲地產(chǎn)1628.HK跑贏行業(yè)3.064.9215.400.90.90.91.23.53.53.32.50.60.60.60.59.8

33、%10.3%10.7%14.0%8.67-65%中海宏洋0081.HK跑贏行業(yè)3.495.2211.950.50.71.01.47.14.83.52.60.60.60.50.51.1%4.1%5.7%7.8%7.97-56%融創(chuàng)中國1918.HK跑贏行業(yè)31.2552.90138.781.35.57.08.823.55.74.43.62.42.11.61.21.9%3.0%4.5%5.6%65.83-53%中國恒大3333.HK中性18.1024.86237.622.74.14.03.66.64.44.55.01.81.61.31.20.0%7.1%8.8%10.8%31.09-42%中國奧園3883.HK跑贏