WhenIwasastudent…

北大28樓222GuohuaJiang(姜國(guó)華）1WhenIwasastudent…

北大28樓222UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley(加州大學(xué)伯克利分校)田長(zhǎng)霖、陳省身、李遠(yuǎn)哲、趙元任、張愛(ài)玲、錢穎一……MostrecentNobelPrizewinners:DanielMcFadden(2000)、GeorgeAckerlof(2001)2UniversityofCalifornia,BerkWhenyouthinkofaccountants,whatimagecomesuptoyourmind?

3Whenyouthinkofaccountants,TheFatherofAccounting-LucaPacioli(1445-1517)HewroteafamousmathematicsbookInonechapterheinventeddouble-entryaccountingsystemHetaughtLeonardoDaVinciperspectiveandproportionality.Theknowledgewasusedtopaint“theLastSupper”4TheFatherofAccounting-Luca55DowJonesIndustrialAverage1930-20026DowJonesIndustrialAverage1DJIA,NASDAQ1990-20027DJIA,NASDAQ1990-20027BacktoSquareOne:DJIA1998-20028BacktoSquareOne:DJIA1998-DorDot.bomb-NASDAQ1998-20029DorDot.bomb-NASDAQ199TheThreeMajorStockExchanges10TheThreeMajorStockExchangeTheRegulatorofU.S.StockMarket11TheRegulatorofU.S.StockMaThecurrentSECcommissioners12ThecurrentSECcommissionersWhoissueAmericanAccountingStandards13WhoissueAmericanAccountingInternationalAccountingStandards14InternationalAccountingStand“BigFour”InternationalAccountingFirmsErnstYoung(worldwiderevenue2002:$10.1billions,4.3billionsintheU.S.)PriceWaterhouseCoopersDeloitte&ToucheKPMGArthurAnderson(oops!)15“BigFour”InternationalAccou國(guó)內(nèi)主要證券交易所主要證券交易所上海證券交易所深圳證券交易所從最初掛牌8只A股發(fā)展到770只A股、54只B股以及基金、國(guó)債和公司債曾經(jīng)存在的輔助證券交易所STAQ系統(tǒng)NET系統(tǒng)地方證券交易中心地方證券交易報(bào)價(jià)系統(tǒng)從最初掛牌6只A股發(fā)展到508只A股、57只B股以及基金、國(guó)債和公司債數(shù)據(jù)截止至2003年10月24日16國(guó)內(nèi)主要證券交易所主要證券交易所上海證券深圳證券從最初掛牌8國(guó)內(nèi)股市（A、B股)上市速度與上市公司數(shù)量

(自1990年12月上海、深圳成立證券交易所至今)1453183291323530745851949108843913010832207215106981390200400600800100012001992年1994年1996年1998年2000年累計(jì)公司上市個(gè)數(shù)當(dāng)年新上市公司數(shù)量140011521218127864666010882002年2003年10月17國(guó)內(nèi)股市（A、B股)上市速度與上市公司數(shù)量

(自1990年1主要證券交易品種主要交易證券A股B股指中國(guó)境內(nèi)發(fā)行、境內(nèi)上市的人民幣普通股境外發(fā)行、境內(nèi)上市的人民幣標(biāo)值美元或港幣標(biāo)價(jià)的普通股次要交易證券共同基金債券國(guó)債企業(yè)債可轉(zhuǎn)換債券曾有過(guò)的品種認(rèn)股權(quán)證國(guó)債期貨開(kāi)放式封閉式18主要證券交易品種主要交易證券A股B股指中國(guó)境內(nèi)發(fā)行、境內(nèi)總市值與交易總額(億元)109.210483691347498421752919506264714809143.4681812840362133230722235443132060827353136270100002000030000400005000060000700001991年1992年1993年1994年1995年1996年1997年1998年1999年2000年總市值成交金額27990383042001年2002年435223832519總市值與交易總額(億元)109.2104836913474公司融資手段發(fā)行債券公司融資間接融資直接融資銀行貸款增資發(fā)行首次發(fā)行增發(fā)配股20公司融資手段發(fā)行債券公司融資間接融資直接融資銀行貸款增資發(fā)行股票籌資額和銀行貸款增加額的比率21股票籌資額和銀行貸款增加額的比率21兩市加權(quán)平均凈資產(chǎn)收益率22兩市加權(quán)平均凈資產(chǎn)收益率22基金、居民儲(chǔ)蓄以及流通市值規(guī)模對(duì)比23基金、居民儲(chǔ)蓄以及流通市值規(guī)模對(duì)比23

各國(guó)股票市值占GDP的比重

24各國(guó)股票市值占GDP的比重24QFII一覽表（截止日期2003年9月17日）

25QFII一覽表（截止日期2003年9月17日）252002年末各國(guó)共同基金資產(chǎn)規(guī)模

（單位：10億美元）

262002年末各國(guó)共同基金資產(chǎn)規(guī)模

（單位：10億美元）26AuditorOpinionsUnqualified

“Unqualified”opinionisactuallygoodopinion, confused?Iwas.QualifiedDisclaimerofopinionAdverseopinion27AuditorOpinionsUnqualified27GeneralElectric2001AnnualReport(10K)28GeneralElectric2001AnnualRTheusersoffinancialstatementsEquityinvestorsCreditorsGovernmentCustomerSuppliersLaborunion29TheusersoffinancialstatemeFinancialAccountingandTaxAccountingTaxaccountingisdesignedbyIRS,InternalRevenueServiceMajordifferenceinrevenuerecognitionandexpenserecognitionTaxaccountingcanembedgovernment’seconomicpolicies30FinancialAccountingandTaxAInvestingMottoTwofriendswenthuntinginthejungle.Allofasudden,abearjumpedoutofnowhereandcameafterthem.A:Run!B:No,itishopeless,wewon’toverrunabear.A:ButIdonothavetorunfasterthanthebear.Ionlyneedtorunfasterthanyou!31InvestingMottoTwofriendswenGoalsofthiscourseHowtoreadfinancialstatementHowtointerpretfinancialstatementWhatinferencestodrawfromfinancialstatementHowtobaseeconomicdecisionsontheinformationinfinancialstatementAlanguagetocommunicateinbusinesscommunity32GoalsofthiscourseHowtoreaGoalsofthiscourseAsecurityanalyst’sperspectiveEmphasizetwoissues:EarningsManagementandvaluation33GoalsofthiscourseAsecurityAnalystReports34AnalystReports34EarningsManagement:Rao,Teoh,Wong,ReviewofAccountingStudies,199835EarningsManagement:Rao,TeohEarningsrestatements–MinWu,HKUST36Earningsrestatements–MinWu37373838Accounting-basedValuationWhoaremypeers?Earningsmultiples,book-valuemultiples,salesmultiplesEVA?,Economicvalueadded,Residualincomevaluation(RIV),Edward,Bell,OhlsonModel(EBO)Inoneword,Sharevalue=f(earnings,bookvalue,dividend,cashflow,etc.)39Accounting-basedValuationWhoAccounting-basedValuation-240Accounting-basedValuation-240Howimportantisaccountinginformation?January22,2003,aftermarketclosed,AT&T(stocksymbolT)announced:

Revenuefor4thquartershrankto$9.3billionfrom10.2billioninthe4thquarterofpreviousyear

Lossfromcontinuingoperationswidenedto$611millionfrom$216million.41HowimportantisaccountinginHowimportantisaccountinginformation?

(F)42HowimportantisaccountinginHowimportantisaccountinginformation?IntheweekendbeforeMonday,Feb.3,2003,Mattel(MAT)announcedfourthquarterresults:Revenueincreasedfromthefourthquarterayearearlierby6.9%to$1.56billion.Netincomeincreasedby35%to$186.1million.Earningspershare(EPS)increasedto42centsfrom31cents.43HowimportantisaccountinginHowimportantisaccountinginformation?

(F)44HowimportantisaccountinginValueInvesting45ValueInvesting45Participate!Youareexpectedto:46Participate!YouareexpectedtReadalot!Youareexpectedto:47Readalot!YouareexpectedtoYouareexpectedto:WorkHard!48Youareexpectedto:WorkHard!BecreativeYouareexpectedto:Name:Hotsummerwithoutscissors!49BecreativeYouareexpectedtoAccountingconceptsandprinciplesEntityconceptReliabilityprinciple(objectivityprinciple)CostprincipleGoing-concernconceptStable-of-monetary-unitconceptConservatismprincipleAccrualaccountingconcept50AccountingconceptsandprinciEntityconceptAcompanyisanindependententity.Onlytransactionsthatarerelatedtothecompanyitself,notaparticularpersonworkingforthecompany,shouldbeconsideredcompanyaffairandberecorded.Example:theownerofanicecreamstoregivesanicecreamtohisniece;thisactisnotabusinesstransaction,itisfamilyaffair.Butifhegivestoaneighbor’sniece,itisabusinesstransaction.Itiscalledpromotion.51EntityconceptAcompanyisanReliabilityprinciple(objectivityprinciple)

Accountingnumbers1)shouldbeverifiable,and2)canbeconfirmedbyanindependentobserver.52Reliabilityprinciple(objectiHistoricalCostPrincipleAllacquiredassetsshouldberecordedattheiractualcost,I.e.,theamountofmoneypaidtoobtaintheasset,eventhoughthecostofthesameassettodayisdifferent.Why?Historicalcostisreliable.53HistoricalCostPrincipleAllaGoing-concernconceptItislikepeopleinthepastwhowishanemperorlivesforever,weassumecompaniesliveforever,althoughtheytendtodiefast.Why?Becauseifweassumegoing-out-of-businessconcept,manywiredthingswillhappen. 1)Assetsneedtoberecordedatcurrentmarketprices 2)Liabilitieswillhavetoberepaidrightaway 3)Earningsandbookvaluesdonotmatter Going-out-of-businessistheexception,nottherule.54Going-concernconceptItislikStable-of-monetary-unitconcept

Onedollartoday=OnedollartomorrowWhy?PurchasingpowerchangesduetoinflationordeflationButweareok.Ifthechangeinpricelevelisnottoodramatic,weholdthestable-of-monetary-unitconcept.Otherwise,everyaccountwillhavetobeadjustedeveryquarter.55Stable-of-monetary-unitconcepConservatismprinciple

Thetensionbetweencreditorsandshareholdersandthetensionbetweenshareholdersandmanagementdictatethataccountingisconservative.Reportbadnewsinfinancialstatementsasearlyandascompleteaspossible;reportgoodnewsinfinancialstatementsonlyaftertheuncertaintysurroundingthegoodnewsisresolved.56Conservatismprinciple

ThetenConservatismprinciple-examplesResearchanddevelopmentexpendituresAdvertisingexpenditureOtherpromotionexpendituresRelationshipbuildupcostsAlltheseexpenditureswilllikelygeneratefuturebenefitsforthefirm.Buttheyareexpensed,notcapitalizedasassetsonbalancesheetbecausetheirbenefitsareuncertainandhardtomeasure.57Conservatismprinciple-exampAccrualAccountingRevenue:recognizewheneveritisearned,notwhencashchangeshandsExpense:recognizewheneveritisincurred,notwhencashchangeshands58AccrualAccountingRevenue:recFinancialStatementsBalanceSheet:atapointintime,i.e.,December31,balancesheetmeasureshowmuchassetthecompanyown,howmuchdebtthecompanyowe,andhowmuchequityshareholdershaveinthecompany Assets=Liabilities+EquityIncomeStatement:duringtheperiodendingonthebalancesheetdate,i.e,duringtheyear,howmuchrevenuesthecompanygenerates,howmuchexpensesareusedtogeneratetherevenues,andtheearnings(Revenues–Expenses).Profitsincreaseequityonbalancesheet,whilelossesdecreaseequityonbalancesheet.StatementofRetainedEarnings:Beginningequity+Earnings–Dividends=Earningsequity(onbalancesheet)59FinancialStatementsBalanceShWhataccountsgowhere?BalanceSheetaccounts:1)canandcanonlybemeasuredatapointintime,2)physicallyorquasi-physicallyexist,and3)canbecarriedoverandusednextperiodIncomeStatementaccounts:2)canandcanonlybemeasuredinanintervaloftime,2)doesnotphysicallyexist,and3)cannotbecarriedovertonextperiod60Whataccountsgowhere?BalanceFinancialStatementsStatementofCashFlows Cashisking. Threesections:Operating,Investing,Financing Operating:cashflowsrelatedtothenormaloperationofthefirm Investing:cashflowsrelatedtoinvestmentinassetsthatgenerateoperatingcashflowinthefuture Financing:cashflowsfromandtoshareholdersandcreditors61FinancialStatementsStatementFinancialStatement:IncomeStatement62FinancialStatement:IncomeSt636364646565Formoreaboutbasicfinancialaccounting,gotocoursewebsiteandread‘Apremieronaccounting66FormoreaboutbasicfinancialWhenIwasastudent…

北大28樓222GuohuaJiang(姜國(guó)華）67WhenIwasastudent…

北大28樓222UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley(加州大學(xué)伯克利分校)田長(zhǎng)霖、陳省身、李遠(yuǎn)哲、趙元任、張愛(ài)玲、錢穎一……MostrecentNobelPrizewinners:DanielMcFadden(2000)、GeorgeAckerlof(2001)68UniversityofCalifornia,BerkWhenyouthinkofaccountants,whatimagecomesuptoyourmind?

69Whenyouthinkofaccountants,TheFatherofAccounting-LucaPacioli(1445-1517)HewroteafamousmathematicsbookInonechapterheinventeddouble-entryaccountingsystemHetaughtLeonardoDaVinciperspectiveandproportionality.Theknowledgewasusedtopaint“theLastSupper”70TheFatherofAccounting-Luca715DowJonesIndustrialAverage1930-200272DowJonesIndustrialAverage1DJIA,NASDAQ1990-200273DJIA,NASDAQ1990-20027BacktoSquareOne:DJIA1998-200274BacktoSquareOne:DJIA1998-DorDot.bomb-NASDAQ1998-200275DorDot.bomb-NASDAQ199TheThreeMajorStockExchanges76TheThreeMajorStockExchangeTheRegulatorofU.S.StockMarket77TheRegulatorofU.S.StockMaThecurrentSECcommissioners78ThecurrentSECcommissionersWhoissueAmericanAccountingStandards79WhoissueAmericanAccountingInternationalAccountingStandards80InternationalAccountingStand“BigFour”InternationalAccountingFirmsErnstYoung(worldwiderevenue2002:$10.1billions,4.3billionsintheU.S.)PriceWaterhouseCoopersDeloitte&ToucheKPMGArthurAnderson(oops!)81“BigFour”InternationalAccou國(guó)內(nèi)主要證券交易所主要證券交易所上海證券交易所深圳證券交易所從最初掛牌8只A股發(fā)展到770只A股、54只B股以及基金、國(guó)債和公司債曾經(jīng)存在的輔助證券交易所STAQ系統(tǒng)NET系統(tǒng)地方證券交易中心地方證券交易報(bào)價(jià)系統(tǒng)從最初掛牌6只A股發(fā)展到508只A股、57只B股以及基金、國(guó)債和公司債數(shù)據(jù)截止至2003年10月24日82國(guó)內(nèi)主要證券交易所主要證券交易所上海證券深圳證券從最初掛牌8國(guó)內(nèi)股市（A、B股)上市速度與上市公司數(shù)量

(自1990年12月上海、深圳成立證券交易所至今)1453183291323530745851949108843913010832207215106981390200400600800100012001992年1994年1996年1998年2000年累計(jì)公司上市個(gè)數(shù)當(dāng)年新上市公司數(shù)量140011521218127864666010882002年2003年10月83國(guó)內(nèi)股市（A、B股)上市速度與上市公司數(shù)量

(自1990年1主要證券交易品種主要交易證券A股B股指中國(guó)境內(nèi)發(fā)行、境內(nèi)上市的人民幣普通股境外發(fā)行、境內(nèi)上市的人民幣標(biāo)值美元或港幣標(biāo)價(jià)的普通股次要交易證券共同基金債券國(guó)債企業(yè)債可轉(zhuǎn)換債券曾有過(guò)的品種認(rèn)股權(quán)證國(guó)債期貨開(kāi)放式封閉式84主要證券交易品種主要交易證券A股B股指中國(guó)境內(nèi)發(fā)行、境內(nèi)總市值與交易總額(億元)109.210483691347498421752919506264714809143.4681812840362133230722235443132060827353136270100002000030000400005000060000700001991年1992年1993年1994年1995年1996年1997年1998年1999年2000年總市值成交金額27990383042001年2002年435223832585總市值與交易總額(億元)109.2104836913474公司融資手段發(fā)行債券公司融資間接融資直接融資銀行貸款增資發(fā)行首次發(fā)行增發(fā)配股86公司融資手段發(fā)行債券公司融資間接融資直接融資銀行貸款增資發(fā)行股票籌資額和銀行貸款增加額的比率87股票籌資額和銀行貸款增加額的比率21兩市加權(quán)平均凈資產(chǎn)收益率88兩市加權(quán)平均凈資產(chǎn)收益率22基金、居民儲(chǔ)蓄以及流通市值規(guī)模對(duì)比89基金、居民儲(chǔ)蓄以及流通市值規(guī)模對(duì)比23

各國(guó)股票市值占GDP的比重

90各國(guó)股票市值占GDP的比重24QFII一覽表（截止日期2003年9月17日）

91QFII一覽表（截止日期2003年9月17日）252002年末各國(guó)共同基金資產(chǎn)規(guī)模

（單位：10億美元）

922002年末各國(guó)共同基金資產(chǎn)規(guī)模

（單位：10億美元）26AuditorOpinionsUnqualified

“Unqualified”opinionisactuallygoodopinion, confused?Iwas.QualifiedDisclaimerofopinionAdverseopinion93AuditorOpinionsUnqualified27GeneralElectric2001AnnualReport(10K)94GeneralElectric2001AnnualRTheusersoffinancialstatementsEquityinvestorsCreditorsGovernmentCustomerSuppliersLaborunion95TheusersoffinancialstatemeFinancialAccountingandTaxAccountingTaxaccountingisdesignedbyIRS,InternalRevenueServiceMajordifferenceinrevenuerecognitionandexpenserecognitionTaxaccountingcanembedgovernment’seconomicpolicies96FinancialAccountingandTaxAInvestingMottoTwofriendswenthuntinginthejungle.Allofasudden,abearjumpedoutofnowhereandcameafterthem.A:Run!B:No,itishopeless,wewon’toverrunabear.A:ButIdonothavetorunfasterthanthebear.Ionlyneedtorunfasterthanyou!97InvestingMottoTwofriendswenGoalsofthiscourseHowtoreadfinancialstatementHowtointerpretfinancialstatementWhatinferencestodrawfromfinancialstatementHowtobaseeconomicdecisionsontheinformationinfinancialstatementAlanguagetocommunicateinbusinesscommunity98GoalsofthiscourseHowtoreaGoalsofthiscourseAsecurityanalyst’sperspectiveEmphasizetwoissues:EarningsManagementandvaluation99GoalsofthiscourseAsecurityAnalystReports100AnalystReports34EarningsManagement:Rao,Teoh,Wong,ReviewofAccountingStudies,1998101EarningsManagement:Rao,TeohEarningsrestatements–MinWu,HKUST102Earningsrestatements–MinWu1033710438Accounting-basedValuationWhoaremypeers?Earningsmultiples,book-valuemultiples,salesmultiplesEVA?,Economicvalueadded,Residualincomevaluation(RIV),Edward,Bell,OhlsonModel(EBO)Inoneword,Sharevalue=f(earnings,bookvalue,dividend,cashflow,etc.)105Accounting-basedValuationWhoAccounting-basedValuation-2106Accounting-basedValuation-240Howimportantisaccountinginformation?January22,2003,aftermarketclosed,AT&T(stocksymbolT)announced:

Revenuefor4thquartershrankto$9.3billionfrom10.2billioninthe4thquarterofpreviousyear

Lossfromcontinuingoperationswidenedto$611millionfrom$216million.107HowimportantisaccountinginHowimportantisaccountinginformation?

(F)108HowimportantisaccountinginHowimportantisaccountinginformation?IntheweekendbeforeMonday,Feb.3,2003,Mattel(MAT)announcedfourthquarterresults:Revenueincreasedfromthefourthquarterayearearlierby6.9%to$1.56billion.Netincomeincreasedby35%to$186.1million.Earningspershare(EPS)increasedto42centsfrom31cents.109HowimportantisaccountinginHowimportantisaccountinginformation?

(F)110HowimportantisaccountinginValueInvesting111ValueInvesting45Participate!Youareexpectedto:112Participate!YouareexpectedtReadalot!Youareexpectedto:113Readalot!YouareexpectedtoYouareexpectedto:WorkHard!114Youareexpectedto:WorkHard!BecreativeYouareexpectedto:Name:Hotsummerwithoutscissors!115BecreativeYouareexpectedtoAccountingconceptsandprinciplesEntityconceptReliabilityprinciple(objectivityprinciple)CostprincipleGoing-concernconceptStable-of-monetary-unitconceptConservatismprincipleAccrualaccountingconcept116AccountingconceptsandprinciEntityconceptAcompanyisanindependententity.Onlytransactionsthatarerelatedtothecompanyitself,notaparticularpersonworkingforthecompany,shouldbeconsideredcompanyaffairandberecorded.Example:theownerofanicecreamstoregivesanicecreamtohisniece;thisactisnotabusinesstransaction,itisfamilyaffair.Butifhegivestoaneighbor’sniece,itisabusinesstransaction.Itiscalledpromotion.117EntityconceptAcompanyisanReliabilityprinciple(objectivityprinciple)

Accountingnumbers1)shouldbeverifiable,and2)canbeconfirmedbyanindependentobserver.118Reliabilityprinciple(objectiHistoricalCostPrincipleAllacquiredassetsshouldberecordedattheiractualcost,I.e.,theamountofmoneypaidtoobtaintheasset,eventhoughthecostofthesameassettodayisdifferent.Why?Historicalcostisreliable.119HistoricalCostPrincipleAllaGoing-concernconceptItislikepeopleinthepastwhowishanemperorlivesforever,weassumecompaniesliveforever,althoughtheytendtodiefast.Why?Becauseifweassumegoing-out-of-businessconcept,manywiredthingswillhappen. 1)Assetsneedtoberecordedatcurrentmarketprices 2)Liabilitieswillhavetoberepaidrightaway 3)Earningsandbookvaluesdonotmatter Going-out-of-businessistheexception,nottherule.120Going-concernconceptItislikStable-of-monetary-unitconcept

Onedollartoday=OnedollartomorrowWhy?PurchasingpowerchangesduetoinflationordeflationButweareok.Ifthechangeinpricelevelisnottoodramatic,weholdthestable-of-monetary-unitconcept.Otherwise,everyaccountwillhavetobeadjustedeveryquarter.121Stable-of-monetary-unitconcepConservatismprinciple

Thetensionbetweencreditorsandshareholdersandthetensionbetweenshareholdersandmanagementdictatethataccountingisconservative.Reportbadnewsinfinancialstatementsasearlyandascompleteaspossible;reportgoodnewsinfinancialstatementsonlyaftertheuncertaintysurroundingthegoodnewsisresolved.122Conservatismprinciple

ThetenConservatismprinciple-examplesResearchanddevelopmentexpendituresAdvertisingexpenditureOtherpromotionexpendituresRelationshipbuildu