PARKJAE-SANGhasshownthewayforward.TheSouthKoreanrapper,knownasPSY,thisweektoppedthepopchartsinBritainandlaysecondinAmerica.Hisgloriouslyinanevideo,“GangnamStyle”(withsome350monlineviewingssofar),hasprovedthatAsia’seconomicpowerhousescanleadtheworldinexportingintangiblegoodiesaswellasthingsyoucandroponyourfoot.Facinganalarmingeconomicslowdown,muchofAsianeedstolearnthelesson:serviceindustriesarethefuture.樸載相向我們展示了發(fā)展的道路。韓國說唱歌手PSY，在本周登上英國流行音樂榜首，美國音樂榜第二。他華麗得無厘頭的MV江南style(目前大約3.5億觀看量)，證明了亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)馬力能夠引領(lǐng)世界無形商品和有形商品的出口。面對著令人擔(dān)憂的經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑，許多亞洲國家必須學(xué)習(xí)一個門課程：服務(wù)業(yè)才是未來。Thatisacrudesummaryofthelatest“Outlook”fortheregionpublishedthisweekbytheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB).Foralmosttheentireregion,itisfargloomierthantheADB’spreviousforecastinApril—ifstillstartlinglyperkybyWesternbenchmarks.InAsiaasawhole,excludingJapan,economicgrowththisyearisexpectedtoslowto6.1%,from7.2%in2011.這是本周亞洲發(fā)展銀行出版的關(guān)于該區(qū)域的最新“展望”的簡略總結(jié)。比起亞洲發(fā)展銀行之前在四月的預(yù)測，該區(qū)域的大多國家都表現(xiàn)出更加暗淡的前景----如果比起西方國家衡量基準(zhǔn)或許有活力得多。從全亞洲看，除去日本，本年度的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)測會從2011年的7.2%下降到今年的6.1%。Muchofthiscanbeblamedonthefeeblestateoftherich-worldeconomy.SinceApril,fearsthattheeurozoneisonthebrinkofacataclysmicmeltdownhaveeasedsomewhat.Yettheyarenotabouttogoawayaltogether,andoptimismovertheprospectsforthebiggestmarketformuchofAsia’sexportsisstillremote.Addinananaemicrecovery,atbest,inAmerica,andtheworrythatitseconomymighttumbleoffafiscalcliffinDecember,andtheoutlookforexternaldemandisbleak.InChinaexportstoEuropefellbyabout5%inthefirsteightmonthsofthisyear,comparedwithayearearlier.著大多要歸咎于富裕經(jīng)濟(jì)體虛弱的現(xiàn)狀。從四月起，歐元區(qū)在災(zāi)難性崩潰邊緣的擔(dān)憂已經(jīng)有所緩和。但是這些擔(dān)憂并沒有完全消散，大多數(shù)亞洲出口國的最大市場的樂觀前景仍然渺茫。加上美國無力的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇還有其經(jīng)濟(jì)可能在12月墜入財政懸崖的擔(dān)憂，外部需求的前景顯得暗淡無光。今年前八個月中國對歐洲出口同比下降了大約5%。Indeed,itisChinathataccountsformuchoftheregionalslowdown,withtheADB’sforecastforGDPgrowthin2012cutto7.7%,from8.5%justinApril.Year-on-yeargrowthinthethirdquarterisexpectedtohavebeennotmuchmorethan7%,theseventhsuccessivequarterlyslowdown.InvestmentinbothChineseinfrastructureandmanufacturinghasgrownlessfrenetically.Economicuncertaintyhasactedasadragonconsumption.Yet,bytheADB’sreckoning,“externalfactors”accountforabouttwo-thirdsofChina’sslowdown.事實上，中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑占據(jù)了該區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)減速的大部分?jǐn)?shù)值，亞洲發(fā)展銀行在4月對中國GDP增長預(yù)測為8.5%，而現(xiàn)在削減為7.7%。第三季度同比增長預(yù)計將不高于7%，這已是連續(xù)第七個季度的下滑。中國基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施和制造業(yè)的投資增長已不再瘋狂。經(jīng)濟(jì)不確定性成了消費(fèi)的羈絆。然而，亞洲發(fā)展銀行估計外部因素占到了中國經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑的三分之二?！癐nternalfactorsaredominant”，however,inIndia,whichhasnotfollowedtheEastAsianpatternoflabour-intensivemanufacturingandexport-ledgrowth.TheretheADBhasmadeanevensharpercutinitsforecastfor2012growth,from7%to5.6%,Alatemonsoon,continuedinflationarypressuresandagovernmentthathasonlyjuststartedtryingtoescapefrompolicyparalysishavealldentedinvestorandconsumerconfidence.而在印度“內(nèi)部因素是主導(dǎo)”，印度沒有遵循勞動力密集型制造業(yè)和出口導(dǎo)向型的東亞模式。亞洲發(fā)展銀行對印度2012年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期做了更大的削減，由7%到5.6%。在這個遲來的雨季里通脹壓力仍在繼續(xù)，同時一個正在開始嘗試脫離政治癱瘓的政府也削弱了投資者和消費(fèi)者的信心。SlowergrowthinChinaandIndiahasaknock-oneffectintherestofAsia,forwhichChinainparticularisanevermoreimportantmarket.YetSouth-EastAsiaisprovingratherresilient,evenifthenewkidontheregionalblock,reformingMyanmar,hastoosmallaneconomyyettohavemuchofanimpact.InIndonesiagrowthisdrivenlargelybydomesticdemandandisstilloncoursetoreacharound6%thisyear.ThePhilippines,anewfavouriteamongsomeforeigninvestors,mayfallnotfarshortofthat.Thailand,meanwhile,hasrecoveredrapidlyfromcalamitousfloodingin2011.中國和印度的緩慢增長在亞洲產(chǎn)生了沖擊效應(yīng)，尤其是中國，在亞洲已它已是個日趨重要的市場。但南亞更為具恢復(fù)力，即使是該區(qū)域集團(tuán)的新勢力，正在改革的緬甸經(jīng)濟(jì)實力還太小不能有太大影響。印尼的增長大部分由國內(nèi)需求驅(qū)動并且在今年會達(dá)到大約6%的增長。菲律賓作為一些外國投資者的新寵，可能同時泰國已經(jīng)從2011年的洪災(zāi)中迅速地恢復(fù)。However,developingAsiafacesachallengemorefundamentalthanridingoutanothercyclicaldownturnintheWest.TheADBhaswarnedbeforeofthedangersofgrowthfuelledbynaturalbountyandcheaplabour.Aswagesrise,manufacturersfindthemselvesunabletocompeteeitherwithlower-costproducerselsewhereor,inhigher-value-addedproducts,withmoreadvancedeconomies.Theygetstuckina“middle-incometrap”.但是，發(fā)展中的亞洲比起經(jīng)受著有一個周期性低迷的西方國家來說面臨著的是更為根本性的挑戰(zhàn)。亞洲增長主要由自然資源和廉價勞動了刺激，亞洲發(fā)展銀行已經(jīng)在此前對這種增長發(fā)出警告。隨著工資上漲，制造商發(fā)覺無論是與其他地方的低成本的制造商還是與發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的高附加值產(chǎn)品，他們都已沒有能力與之競爭。他們可能陷入“中等收入陷阱”。NowtheADBisarguingthat,withdemandfromtheadvancedeconomiesforitsmanufacturesunlikelytopickupstronglysoon,Asianeedstoshifttoamodelbasedmoreonrisingdomesticdemandandrelyingmoreonitsserviceindustries.Asfarmers’childrenacrossAsiahaveleftthelandtoworkinfactories,farming’sshareofoutputhasdropped,soindustry’sshareisnowfarhigherthanintheOECDcountries.ButbeforedevelopingAsia’sindustrialisationhasrunitscourse,theregionneedstoreplicatethesuccessinservices,whichnowaccountforjust48.5%ofitsGDP,comparedwith75%inadvancedeconomies.亞洲發(fā)展銀行稱，現(xiàn)在發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體對亞洲制造商需求不太可能快速強(qiáng)勁恢復(fù)，所以亞洲需要轉(zhuǎn)變成更加依賴國內(nèi)需求和服務(wù)業(yè)的模式。隨著亞洲農(nóng)民子女離開土地到工廠工作，農(nóng)業(yè)比重開始下降，所以工業(yè)比重比起世界經(jīng)合組織國家來說要高得多。但是在亞洲工業(yè)化按部就班地發(fā)展之前，該區(qū)域必須復(fù)制在服務(wù)業(yè)方面的成功，服務(wù)業(yè)目前僅占GDP的48.5%，不及發(fā)達(dá)國家的75%。Asiahassomeextraordinarysuccessstoriesinhigh-endservices:notjustthe“Koreanwave”washingthroughtheworld’spopcultures,ortheBollywoodmovieswatchedfromKandahartoKansas,butsomeoftheworld’sbestairports,airlinesandhotels.ThenthereisIndia’sworld-beatinginformation-technologyservicesandoutsourcingindustry.Lastyearthisproduced$76.4billioninrevenuesandemployed2.5mpeople.亞洲在高端服務(wù)業(yè)也有一些非凡的成績，不只是席卷全球的頂級流行文化“韓流”，或從坎大哈到堪薩斯都被觀看過的寶萊塢電影，其實還有世界上最好的機(jī)場，航空公司和酒店。其次是印度一流的信息技術(shù)服務(wù)還有外包產(chǎn)業(yè)。去年在這些方面產(chǎn)生的收入達(dá)到764億美元，為250萬人提供就業(yè)崗位。Thatisadropintheocean,however,inIndia’shalf-a-billion-stronglabourforce,evencountingthefouradditionaljobselsewherethateachITjobisclaimedtocreate.MostofthoseworkinginwhatcountasservicejobsacrossAsialeadlessmodernandproductivelives:shopkeepers,rickshaw-pullers,foot-masseuses,securityguards,barbers,road-sweepers,dhobi-wallahsliftattendants,rubbish-pickersandsoon.Whatisneeded,theADBargues,isaboostfor“high-valuemodernservices”,suchasITandfinance.Thiswouldcreatejobs(especiallyforwomen),meetthegrowingneedofanurbanisingpopulationformoresophisticatedservices,andopenupnewexportmarkets.這只是滄海一粟，對亞洲大多數(shù)工作于稱得上是服務(wù)業(yè)人的來說，他們的工作并沒那么現(xiàn)代化和高效：諸如店主，車夫，足底按摩師，保安，理發(fā)師，清潔工人，電梯乘務(wù)員，拾荒者等等。亞洲發(fā)展銀行表示，高價值現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)需要推進(jìn)，比如IT和金融業(yè)。這將會增加工作崗位(尤其對女性)，滿足城市人口不斷增長的對于高端服務(wù)的需求，而且也將開啟新的出口市場。BlockedserviceroadsTheobstaclestothisarehuge,includingtheshortcomingsofeducationsystems,telecommunicationsandotherinfrastructureand,intheADB’swords,“aboveall,burdensomeregulationswhichprotectincu