ProjectRiskManagementArtOrScience?ProjectRiskManagementArtOr1學(xué)習(xí)提示學(xué)習(xí)內(nèi)容風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的含義項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過(guò)程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別定性的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析定量的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)反應(yīng)計(jì)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的監(jiān)督與控制軟件的應(yīng)用學(xué)習(xí)重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過(guò)程學(xué)習(xí)難點(diǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估學(xué)習(xí)提示學(xué)習(xí)內(nèi)容學(xué)習(xí)重點(diǎn)WhatriskisAbasicdictionarydefinitionsaysthatriskis“thepossibilityoflossorinjury”RiskisuncertaintythathaveaNegativeOrpositiveeffectonmeetingprojectobjectivesNegativeRisk(1960S-1970S)Ageneraldefinition(1980S-1990S)WhatriskisAbasicdictionar風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的屬性f(probability,impact)f(threatinsurancechance)certainRiskUncertain風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的屬性f(probability,impact)f4ProjectriskmanagementProjectriskmanagementistheartandscienceofidentifying,analyzing,andrespondingtoriskthroughoutthelifeofaprojectandinthebestinterestofmeetingtheprojectobjectives風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是對(duì)項(xiàng)目管理過(guò)程中如何處理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的決策和控制過(guò)程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是在項(xiàng)目生命期內(nèi)，為了最大限度地滿足項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)，識(shí)別、分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并做出相應(yīng)反應(yīng)的藝術(shù)和科學(xué)ProjectriskmanagementProject5RiskpreferenceUtilityPotentialpayoffRiskneutralRisk-averseRiskseekingtheamountofsatisfactionorpleasure

receivedfromapotentialpayoffRiskpreferenceUtilityPotentia6決策過(guò)程的三種規(guī)范確定狀態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不確定性What’sthedifferencebetweenthecrisismanagementandtheriskmanagement決策過(guò)程的三種規(guī)范確定狀態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不確定性7ProjectmanagementmaturitybyindustrygroupandknowledgeareaKEY:1=LowestMaturityrating5=HighestMaturityRatingEngineering/constructiontelecommunicationsInformationsystemsHi-TechmanufacturingScope3.523.453.253.37Time3.553.143.033.50Cost3.743.223.203.97Quality2.913.222.883.26Humanresources3.183.202.933.18communication3.533.533.213.48risk2.932.872.752.76procurement3.333.012.913.33Projectmanagementmaturityby8Itisimportanttonotethat:Riskmanagementisaninvestment-therearecostassociatedwithIt.natureoftheproject,Theexperienceoftheprojectteam,constrainsimposedonbothCostexceedpotentialbenefitMinimizingpotentialnegativeriskWhilemaximizingpotentialpositiveriskdependsgoalsprincipleItisimportanttonotethat:9Themajorprocess

involvedinriskmanagementRiskmanagementplanningRiskidentificationQualitativeriskanalysisQuantitativeriskanalysisRiskresponseplanningRiskmonitoringandcontrol編制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定性和定量分析編制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)督與管理Themajorprocess

involvedin10謝謝！謝謝！11風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理流程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)反饋風(fēng)險(xiǎn)文件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析反饋線中：虛線表示存在反饋實(shí)線表示可能存在反饋風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理流程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)反饋風(fēng)險(xiǎn)12風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃/準(zhǔn)備過(guò)程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別最高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的清單制定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)手段的選擇和分析最佳選擇風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)工具最佳實(shí)施方法論證后的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃修訂最高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的報(bào)告狀態(tài)報(bào)告其他步驟的反饋風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)優(yōu)先級(jí)和整合實(shí)施風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃可能性與影響風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控和報(bào)告風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件清單風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃過(guò)程計(jì)劃和控制組織和培訓(xùn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃/準(zhǔn)備風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)制定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)手段最佳風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最13RiskmanagementplanningRiskmanagementplanningistheprocessofdecidinghowtoapproachandplanforriskmanagementactivitiesforaproject。Ariskmanagementplandocumentstheproceduresformanagingriskthroughouttheproject風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃編制就是決定采用何種方法進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理活動(dòng)并制定相應(yīng)計(jì)劃管理過(guò)程。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃是管理整個(gè)項(xiàng)目生命期中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程序性文件RiskmanagementplanningRiskm14TopicaddressedinariskmanagementplanMethodology:howwillriskmanagementbeperformedonthisproject?Whattoolsanddataresourcesareavailableandapplicable？Rolesandresponsibilities:whoaretheindividualsresponsibleforimplementingspecifictasksandprovidingdeliverablesrelatedtoriskmanagement？Budgetandschedule:whataretheestimatedcostandschedulesforperformingriskrelatedactivities？方法論：項(xiàng)目中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理怎樣被執(zhí)行？可以得到的并切實(shí)可行的工具和數(shù)據(jù)資源是什么?角色和責(zé)任：誰(shuí)是執(zhí)行特定任務(wù)并對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理提供可交付性成果的個(gè)人或群體？預(yù)算和進(jìn)度：執(zhí)行與與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相關(guān)的進(jìn)度和估計(jì)的成本是多少？Topicaddressedinariskmana15TopicaddressedinariskmanagementplanRiskcategories:whatarethemaincategoriesofrisksthatshouldbeaddressedonthisproject?Isthereariskbreakdownstructurefortheproject?Riskprobabilityandimpact:howwilltheprobabilitiesandimpactsofriskitemsbeassessed?WhatscoringandinterpretationmethodswillbeusedforthequalitativeandquantitativeanalysisofrisksRiskdocumenting:whatreportingformatsandprocesswillbeusedforriskmanagementactivities.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的種類：項(xiàng)目中涉及的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的種類有哪些？是否編制出與WBS和OBS相應(yīng)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)分解圖？風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概率和影響：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)項(xiàng)目發(fā)生的概率和對(duì)項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)產(chǎn)生的影響如何評(píng)價(jià)？什么樣的打分和解釋的方法可用來(lái)定性和定量地分析項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)？風(fēng)險(xiǎn)登記：采用怎樣的報(bào)告形式和流程用來(lái)登記風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理活動(dòng)。Topicaddressedinariskmana16ProjectdocumentsCorporateriskmanagementpoliciesRiskcategoriesLessons-learnedreportsfrompastprojectTemplatesforcreatingariskmanagementplanTherisktolerancesofvariousstakeholders

Ariskmanagementplan:summarizeshowriskmanagementwillbeperformedonaparticularprojectProjectdocumentsAriskmanage17完善的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)劃威脅與災(zāi)害應(yīng)急方案與緩和計(jì)劃損失和破壞完善的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)劃威脅與災(zāi)害應(yīng)急方案與緩和計(jì)劃損失和破壞18不完善的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)劃威脅與災(zāi)害應(yīng)急方案與緩和計(jì)劃損失和破壞不完善的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)劃威脅與災(zāi)害應(yīng)急方案與緩和計(jì)劃損失和破壞19RiskIdentificationIdentifyingriskistheprocessofunderstandingwhatpotentialeventsmighthurtorenhanceaparticularproject。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別是了解可能損害和增強(qiáng)特定項(xiàng)目效益的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的過(guò)程。ToolsandtechniquesTheriskregisterRiskIdentificationIdentifying項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃信息：工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)：項(xiàng)目的產(chǎn)品描述、項(xiàng)目的工期和成本估計(jì)、資源規(guī)劃、采購(gòu)計(jì)劃、假設(shè)前提和限制條件；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類別歷史資料：項(xiàng)目文檔、公開(kāi)發(fā)表的資料、項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)成員的知識(shí)和經(jīng)驗(yàn)訪談法SWOT檢查表法假設(shè)前提分析圖示技術(shù)文件審核頭腦風(fēng)暴德?tīng)柗品↖dentifiedriskstriggers項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃訪談法文件審核Identifiedrisk21SuggestionsforidentifyingrisksBrainstorming:isatechniquesforbywhichagroupattemptstogenerateideasorfindasolutionforaspecificproblembyamassingideasspontaneouslyandwithoutjudgmentDelphitechniqueistoderiveaconsensusamongapanelofexpertswhomakepredictionsaboutfuturedevelopmentsInterviewing:isafact-findingtechniqueforcollectinginformationinface-to-face,phone,e-mail,orinstant-messagingdiscussionsSuggestionsforidentifyingri22TheRiskRegisterAriskregisterisadocumentthatcontainsresultsofvariousriskmanagementprocess,oftendisplayedinatableorspreadsheetformat.Itisatoolfordocumentingpotentialriskeventsandrelatedinformation。Riskeventsrefertospecific,uncertaineventsthatmayoccurtothedetrimentorenhancementoftheproject風(fēng)險(xiǎn)登記表是一種記錄各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過(guò)程結(jié)果的文件，通常以表格的形式給出，是用來(lái)描述潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件和相關(guān)信息的文件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件是指那些特定的可能對(duì)項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)生有利或不利影響的不確定事件TheRiskRegisterAriskregist23SampleRiskRegisterNORANKRISKDESCRIPTIONCATEGORYROOTCAUSETRIGGERSPOTENTIALRESPONSESRISKOWERPROBABILITYIMPACTSTATUSR441R212SampleRiskRegisterNORANKRISK24QualitativeRiskAnalysisProbability/impactMatrixorchartToptenitemtrackingExpertjudgmentQualitativeRiskAnalysisProba25Sampleprobability/impactMatrixrisk6risk9Risk1risk4Risk3risk7Risk2Risk5risk11Risk8risk10risk12highmediumlowhighmediumlowimpactprobabilitySampleprobability/impactMatr26LowriskMediumriskHighriskLowMediumHigh27Toptenriskitemtracking:itmaintainsanawarenessofrisksthroughoutofthelifeofaproject.

MONTHLYRANKINGRISKEVENRANKTHISMONTHRANKLASTMONTHNUMBEROFMONTHINTOPTENRISKRESOLUTIONPROGRESSInadequateplanning124WorkingonrevisingtheentireprojectmanagementplanPoordefinition233HoldingmeetingswithprojectcustomerandsponsorortoclarifyscopeAbsenceofleadership312Afterpreviousprojectmanagerquiet,assignedanewonetoleadaprojectToptenriskitemtracking:it28ExpectedMonetaryValue(EMV)Exampledecision

probability0.20.80.20.10.7$300,000-$40,000-$50,000-$20,000$60,000=====+$60,000-$32,000-$10,000-$2,000$42,000Project1Project2outcome=EMVPROJECT1’SEMV=$60,00-$32,000=$28,000Project2,sEMA=-$10,000-$2,000+$42,000=$30,000ExpectedMonetaryValue(EMV)29SIMULATIONAmoresophisticatedquantitativeriskanalysistechniqueissimulation,simulationusesarepresentationormodelofasystemtoanalyzetheexpectedbehaviororperformanceofthesystem.MostsimulationsarebasedonsomeformofMonteCarloanalysis.SIMULATIONAmoresophisticated30風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定性分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量分析定義定性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析是評(píng)估已識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響和可能性的過(guò)程。這一過(guò)程按風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)可能的影響對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行排序。定量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析過(guò)程的目標(biāo)是量化分析每一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概率及其對(duì)項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)造成的后果，也分析項(xiàng)目總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的程度作用與目的識(shí)別具體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和指導(dǎo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)；根據(jù)各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)于項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)的潛在影響對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行排序通過(guò)比較風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)總體級(jí)別。測(cè)定某一特定項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)的概率；量化項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響，決定項(xiàng)目可能需要的成本和時(shí)間的應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備；通過(guò)量化各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)的影響程度，贈(zèng)別出最需要關(guān)注的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相互聯(lián)系風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量分析一般在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定性分析之后進(jìn)行。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定性分析與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量分析可以分別單獨(dú)使用，也可以一起使用，這決定于項(xiàng)目的時(shí)間、預(yù)算的要求和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及影響對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性定量說(shuō)明的需要。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定性分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量分析定義定性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析是評(píng)估已識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)31需要提供的信息和依據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)項(xiàng)目狀態(tài)項(xiàng)目類型數(shù)據(jù)精確性概率范圍及后果假設(shè)前提風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)優(yōu)先次序清單歷史信息專家判斷其他計(jì)劃編制的輸出運(yùn)用的方法與工具訪談概率/影響風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)評(píng)分矩陣專家判斷法十大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)項(xiàng)目跟蹤風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率和影響敏感性分析決策樹(shù)分析模擬（蒙特卡羅分析）分析的結(jié)果項(xiàng)目總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)項(xiàng)目?jī)?yōu)先次序清單需進(jìn)一步分析和管理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)清單風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定性分析結(jié)果中反映的趨勢(shì)。經(jīng)量化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)優(yōu)先次序清單項(xiàng)目概率分析完成成本和時(shí)間目標(biāo)的概率定量分析結(jié)果中反映的趨勢(shì)需要提供的信息和依據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃運(yùn)用的方法與工具32風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃的編制概念：針對(duì)已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)制定行動(dòng)方案和確定行動(dòng)措施的過(guò)程，其目標(biāo)在于增加實(shí)現(xiàn)項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)的機(jī)會(huì)，減少對(duì)項(xiàng)目的威脅。這一過(guò)程包括確定和分派相應(yīng)的人員和單位負(fù)責(zé)每項(xiàng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施，保證已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能夠得到合適的處理。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃的編制概念：針對(duì)已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)制定行動(dòng)方案和確定行33項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃（riskregister)序號(hào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響應(yīng)對(duì)策略具體應(yīng)對(duì)措施負(fù)責(zé)人項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃（riskregister)序號(hào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件風(fēng)34RiskResponsePlanning

Thebasicresponsestrategiesfornegativerisk:RiskavoidanceRiskacceptanceRisktransferenceRiskmitigationThebasicresponsestrategiesforpositiverisks:RiskexploitationRisksharingRiskenhancementRiskacceptanceRiskResponsePlanningThebas35風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：通過(guò)變更項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃，從而消除風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和產(chǎn)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的條件，或者保護(hù)項(xiàng)目的目標(biāo)免受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響。如縮小項(xiàng)目范圍、延長(zhǎng)工期、采用成熟的技術(shù)、避免使用缺乏經(jīng)驗(yàn)的承包商。轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：設(shè)法將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的結(jié)果連同對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)的權(quán)利轉(zhuǎn)讓給第三方。轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)需要付出相應(yīng)的成本包括：保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)、履約保證金、擔(dān)保費(fèi)用等。緩解風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：采取一定措施將某一負(fù)面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響事件的概率和其后果將地道到一種可以接受的限度。緩解風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)注意成本收益的比較，保證風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理投資的合理性。接受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：當(dāng)某一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響在可承受的范圍之內(nèi)，或者項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)沒(méi)能找到其他合適的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略時(shí)，不改變?cè)杏?jì)劃去應(yīng)對(duì)某一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。采用接受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的策略需要制定：應(yīng)急計(jì)劃（contingencyplan),退卻計(jì)劃（fallbackplan)、應(yīng)急補(bǔ)助和儲(chǔ)備（contingencyallowance）。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：通過(guò)變更項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃，從而消除風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和產(chǎn)生風(fēng)36RiskMonitoringAndControlRiskmonitoringandcontrolinvolvesexecutingtheriskmanagementprocessestorespondtoriskevens.Executingtheriskmanagementprocessmeansensuringthatriskawarenessisanongoingactivityperformedbytheentireprojectteamthroughouttheentireproject.RiskMonitoringAndControlRis37Reassessment,riskaudits,varianceAndtrendanalysis,technicalperformancemeasurements,reserveanalysis,AndstatusmeetingsorperiodicriskreviewssuchasThetoptenriskitemtrackingmethodToolsandtechnicalRequestedchanges,Recommendedcorrectiveandpreventiveactions,Andupdatestotheriskregister,projectmanagementplan,Organizationalprocessassets,suchaslessons-learnedinformationthatmighthelpfutureprojectoutputReassessment,riskaudits,var38風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的監(jiān)控就是對(duì)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行監(jiān)督和控制，包括：跟蹤已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、監(jiān)視殘余風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和識(shí)別新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)；保證風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃的執(zhí)行和實(shí)施；評(píng)估這些計(jì)劃對(duì)于遞減風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的有效性項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)督和控制包括在整個(gè)項(xiàng)目過(guò)程中風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的監(jiān)控就是對(duì)項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行監(jiān)督和控制，包括：39風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控的目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃是否有效實(shí)施？風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施是否有效？項(xiàng)目假設(shè)前提是否依然成立；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)暴露水平與以前的狀況相比是否發(fā)生變化，如發(fā)生，做出趨勢(shì)分析；某一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)觸發(fā)器/征兆是否已經(jīng)發(fā)生；適當(dāng)?shù)慕M織政策和管理程序是否得到遵從；是否有新的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控的目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃是否有效實(shí)施？某一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)觸發(fā)器/征兆40風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控的方法與措施建立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)；定期對(duì)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行審核；完善風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理責(zé)任制度。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控的方法與措施建立風(fēng)險(xiǎn)數(shù)據(jù)庫(kù)；41Broadcategoriesofrisks

mightinclude:MarketriskFinancialriskTechnologyriskPeopleriskStructure/processriskBroadcategoriesofrisks

mig42SampleriskbreakdownstructureITProjectCompetitionsuppliersCashflowHardwaresoftwarenetworkExecutivesupportusersupportteamsupportestimatecommunicationresourceProjectmanagementTechnicalBusinessOrganizationalSampleriskbreakdownstructur43每一階段的典型風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件全生命期四個(gè)階段項(xiàng)目批準(zhǔn)項(xiàng)目初始計(jì)劃和詳細(xì)計(jì)劃執(zhí)行結(jié)束缺乏主要專家問(wèn)題定義不明確無(wú)可行性研究目標(biāo)不明確購(gòu)買（通過(guò)競(jìng)標(biāo)）無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃計(jì)劃草率缺乏準(zhǔn)確參數(shù)傳播不準(zhǔn)確角色定義不明確團(tuán)隊(duì)缺乏經(jīng)驗(yàn)員工缺乏技能材料可獲得性罷工天氣范圍變更進(jìn)度變更管理制度要求無(wú)適應(yīng)的控制系統(tǒng)質(zhì)量差客戶不接受基建規(guī)模更改現(xiàn)金流動(dòng)問(wèn)題總體項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資總額每一階段的典型風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件全生命期四個(gè)階段項(xiàng)目批準(zhǔn)項(xiàng)目初始計(jì)劃執(zhí)44Potentialnegativeriskconditions

associatedwitheachknowledgeareaareaRiskconditionsintegrationScopeTimeCostInadequateplanning;poorresourceallocation;poorintegrationmanagement;lackofpost-projectreviewPoordefinitionofscopeorworkpackages;incompletedefinitionErrorsin

estimatingtimeorresourceavailability;errorsindeterminingthecriticalpath;poorallocationandmanagementoffloat;earlyreleaseofcompetitiveproductsEstimatingerrors;inadequateproductivity,costchange,orcontingencyPotentialnegativeriskcondit45areaRiskconditionsqualityHumanresourcescommunicationriskprocurementPotentialnegativeriskconditions

associatedwitheachknowledgeareapoorattitude

towardquality;substandarddesign/materials/workmanship;inadequatequalityassuranceprogramPoorconflict

management;poorprojectorganizationanddefinitionofresponsibilities;absenceofleadershipCarelessnessinplanningorcommunicating;lackofConsultationWithkeystakeholdersIgnoringrisk;unclearanalysisofrisk;poorinsurancemanagementUnenforceableconditionsorcontractclauses;adversarialrelationsareaRiskconditionsqualityHuma46演講完畢，謝謝觀看！演講完畢，謝謝觀看！47ProjectRiskManagementArtOrScience?ProjectRiskManagementArtOr48學(xué)習(xí)提示學(xué)習(xí)內(nèi)容風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的含義項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過(guò)程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別定性的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析定量的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)反應(yīng)計(jì)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的監(jiān)督與控制軟件的應(yīng)用學(xué)習(xí)重點(diǎn)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過(guò)程學(xué)習(xí)難點(diǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估學(xué)習(xí)提示學(xué)習(xí)內(nèi)容學(xué)習(xí)重點(diǎn)WhatriskisAbasicdictionarydefinitionsaysthatriskis“thepossibilityoflossorinjury”RiskisuncertaintythathaveaNegativeOrpositiveeffectonmeetingprojectobjectivesNegativeRisk(1960S-1970S)Ageneraldefinition(1980S-1990S)WhatriskisAbasicdictionar風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的屬性f(probability,impact)f(threatinsurancechance)certainRiskUncertain風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的屬性f(probability,impact)f51ProjectriskmanagementProjectriskmanagementistheartandscienceofidentifying,analyzing,andrespondingtoriskthroughoutthelifeofaprojectandinthebestinterestofmeetingtheprojectobjectives風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是對(duì)項(xiàng)目管理過(guò)程中如何處理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的決策和控制過(guò)程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是在項(xiàng)目生命期內(nèi)，為了最大限度地滿足項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)，識(shí)別、分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)并做出相應(yīng)反應(yīng)的藝術(shù)和科學(xué)ProjectriskmanagementProject52RiskpreferenceUtilityPotentialpayoffRiskneutralRisk-averseRiskseekingtheamountofsatisfactionorpleasure

receivedfromapotentialpayoffRiskpreferenceUtilityPotentia53決策過(guò)程的三種規(guī)范確定狀態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不確定性What’sthedifferencebetweenthecrisismanagementandtheriskmanagement決策過(guò)程的三種規(guī)范確定狀態(tài)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不確定性54ProjectmanagementmaturitybyindustrygroupandknowledgeareaKEY:1=LowestMaturityrating5=HighestMaturityRatingEngineering/constructiontelecommunicationsInformationsystemsHi-TechmanufacturingScope3.523.453.253.37Time3.553.143.033.50Cost3.743.223.203.97Quality2.913.222.883.26Humanresources3.183.202.933.18communication3.533.533.213.48risk2.932.872.752.76procurement3.333.012.913.33Projectmanagementmaturityby55Itisimportanttonotethat:Riskmanagementisaninvestment-therearecostassociatedwithIt.natureoftheproject,Theexperienceoftheprojectteam,constrainsimposedonbothCostexceedpotentialbenefitMinimizingpotentialnegativeriskWhilemaximizingpotentialpositiveriskdependsgoalsprincipleItisimportanttonotethat:56Themajorprocess

involvedinriskmanagementRiskmanagementplanningRiskidentificationQualitativeriskanalysisQuantitativeriskanalysisRiskresponseplanningRiskmonitoringandcontrol編制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定性和定量分析編制風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)督與管理Themajorprocess

involvedin57謝謝！謝謝！58風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理流程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)反饋風(fēng)險(xiǎn)文件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析反饋線中：虛線表示存在反饋實(shí)線表示可能存在反饋風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理流程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)反饋風(fēng)險(xiǎn)59風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃/準(zhǔn)備過(guò)程風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別最高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的清單制定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)手段的選擇和分析最佳選擇風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)工具最佳實(shí)施方法論證后的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃修訂最高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的報(bào)告狀態(tài)報(bào)告其他步驟的反饋風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)優(yōu)先級(jí)和整合實(shí)施風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃可能性與影響風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控和報(bào)告風(fēng)險(xiǎn)監(jiān)控風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件清單風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃過(guò)程計(jì)劃和控制組織和培訓(xùn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)規(guī)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃/準(zhǔn)備風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)制定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)手段最佳風(fēng)險(xiǎn)最60RiskmanagementplanningRiskmanagementplanningistheprocessofdecidinghowtoapproachandplanforriskmanagementactivitiesforaproject。Ariskmanagementplandocumentstheproceduresformanagingriskthroughouttheproject風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃編制就是決定采用何種方法進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理活動(dòng)并制定相應(yīng)計(jì)劃管理過(guò)程。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃是管理整個(gè)項(xiàng)目生命期中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)程序性文件RiskmanagementplanningRiskm61TopicaddressedinariskmanagementplanMethodology:howwillriskmanagementbeperformedonthisproject?Whattoolsanddataresourcesareavailableandapplicable？Rolesandresponsibilities:whoaretheindividualsresponsibleforimplementingspecifictasksandprovidingdeliverablesrelatedtoriskmanagement？Budgetandschedule:whataretheestimatedcostandschedulesforperformingriskrelatedactivities？方法論：項(xiàng)目中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理怎樣被執(zhí)行？可以得到的并切實(shí)可行的工具和數(shù)據(jù)資源是什么?角色和責(zé)任：誰(shuí)是執(zhí)行特定任務(wù)并對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理提供可交付性成果的個(gè)人或群體？預(yù)算和進(jìn)度：執(zhí)行與與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相關(guān)的進(jìn)度和估計(jì)的成本是多少？Topicaddressedinariskmana62TopicaddressedinariskmanagementplanRiskcategories:whatarethemaincategoriesofrisksthatshouldbeaddressedonthisproject?Isthereariskbreakdownstructurefortheproject?Riskprobabilityandimpact:howwilltheprobabilitiesandimpactsofriskitemsbeassessed?WhatscoringandinterpretationmethodswillbeusedforthequalitativeandquantitativeanalysisofrisksRiskdocumenting:whatreportingformatsandprocesswillbeusedforriskmanagementactivities.風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的種類：項(xiàng)目中涉及的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的種類有哪些？是否編制出與WBS和OBS相應(yīng)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)結(jié)構(gòu)分解圖？風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概率和影響：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)項(xiàng)目發(fā)生的概率和對(duì)項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)產(chǎn)生的影響如何評(píng)價(jià)？什么樣的打分和解釋的方法可用來(lái)定性和定量地分析項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)？風(fēng)險(xiǎn)登記：采用怎樣的報(bào)告形式和流程用來(lái)登記風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理活動(dòng)。Topicaddressedinariskmana63ProjectdocumentsCorporateriskmanagementpoliciesRiskcategoriesLessons-learnedreportsfrompastprojectTemplatesforcreatingariskmanagementplanTherisktolerancesofvariousstakeholders

Ariskmanagementplan:summarizeshowriskmanagementwillbeperformedonaparticularprojectProjectdocumentsAriskmanage64完善的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)劃威脅與災(zāi)害應(yīng)急方案與緩和計(jì)劃損失和破壞完善的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)劃威脅與災(zāi)害應(yīng)急方案與緩和計(jì)劃損失和破壞65不完善的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)劃威脅與災(zāi)害應(yīng)急方案與緩和計(jì)劃損失和破壞不完善的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)計(jì)劃威脅與災(zāi)害應(yīng)急方案與緩和計(jì)劃損失和破壞66RiskIdentificationIdentifyingriskistheprocessofunderstandingwhatpotentialeventsmighthurtorenhanceaparticularproject。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別是了解可能損害和增強(qiáng)特定項(xiàng)目效益的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件的過(guò)程。ToolsandtechniquesTheriskregisterRiskIdentificationIdentifying項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃信息：工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)：項(xiàng)目的產(chǎn)品描述、項(xiàng)目的工期和成本估計(jì)、資源規(guī)劃、采購(gòu)計(jì)劃、假設(shè)前提和限制條件；風(fēng)險(xiǎn)類別歷史資料：項(xiàng)目文檔、公開(kāi)發(fā)表的資料、項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)成員的知識(shí)和經(jīng)驗(yàn)訪談法SWOT檢查表法假設(shè)前提分析圖示技術(shù)文件審核頭腦風(fēng)暴德?tīng)柗品↖dentifiedriskstriggers項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃訪談法文件審核Identifiedrisk68SuggestionsforidentifyingrisksBrainstorming:isatechniquesforbywhichagroupattemptstogenerateideasorfindasolutionforaspecificproblembyamassingideasspontaneouslyandwithoutjudgmentDelphitechniqueistoderiveaconsensusamongapanelofexpertswhomakepredictionsaboutfuturedevelopmentsInterviewing:isafact-findingtechniqueforcollectinginformationinface-to-face,phone,e-mail,orinstant-messagingdiscussionsSuggestionsforidentifyingri69TheRiskRegisterAriskregisterisadocumentthatcontainsresultsofvariousriskmanagementprocess,oftendisplayedinatableorspreadsheetformat.Itisatoolfordocumentingpotentialriskeventsandrelatedinformation。Riskeventsrefertospecific,uncertaineventsthatmayoccurtothedetrimentorenhancementoftheproject風(fēng)險(xiǎn)登記表是一種記錄各種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過(guò)程結(jié)果的文件，通常以表格的形式給出，是用來(lái)描述潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件和相關(guān)信息的文件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件是指那些特定的可能對(duì)項(xiàng)目產(chǎn)生有利或不利影響的不確定事件TheRiskRegisterAriskregist70SampleRiskRegisterNORANKRISKDESCRIPTIONCATEGORYROOTCAUSETRIGGERSPOTENTIALRESPONSESRISKOWERPROBABILITYIMPACTSTATUSR441R212SampleRiskRegisterNORANKRISK71QualitativeRiskAnalysisProbability/impactMatrixorchartToptenitemtrackingExpertjudgmentQualitativeRiskAnalysisProba72Sampleprobability/impactMatrixrisk6risk9Risk1risk4Risk3risk7Risk2Risk5risk11Risk8risk10risk12highmediumlowhighmediumlowimpactprobabilitySampleprobability/impactMatr73LowriskMediumriskHighriskLowMediumHigh74Toptenriskitemtracking:itmaintainsanawarenessofrisksthroughoutofthelifeofaproject.

MONTHLYRANKINGRISKEVENRANKTHISMONTHRANKLASTMONTHNUMBEROFMONTHINTOPTENRISKRESOLUTIONPROGRESSInadequateplanning124WorkingonrevisingtheentireprojectmanagementplanPoordefinition233HoldingmeetingswithprojectcustomerandsponsorortoclarifyscopeAbsenceofleadership312Afterpreviousprojectmanagerquiet,assignedanewonetoleadaprojectToptenriskitemtracking:it75ExpectedMonetaryValue(EMV)Exampledecision

probability0.20.80.20.10.7$300,000-$40,000-$50,000-$20,000$60,000=====+$60,000-$32,000-$10,000-$2,000$42,000Project1Project2outcome=EMVPROJECT1’SEMV=$60,00-$32,000=$28,000Project2,sEMA=-$10,000-$2,000+$42,000=$30,000ExpectedMonetaryValue(EMV)76SIMULATIONAmoresophisticatedquantitativeriskanalysistechniqueissimulation,simulationusesarepresentationormodelofasystemtoanalyzetheexpectedbehaviororperformanceofthesystem.MostsimulationsarebasedonsomeformofMonteCarloanalysis.SIMULATIONAmoresophisticated77風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定性分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量分析定義定性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析是評(píng)估已識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響和可能性的過(guò)程。這一過(guò)程按風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)可能的影響對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行排序。定量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析過(guò)程的目標(biāo)是量化分析每一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概率及其對(duì)項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)造成的后果，也分析項(xiàng)目總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的程度作用與目的識(shí)別具體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和指導(dǎo)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)；根據(jù)各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)于項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)的潛在影響對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行排序通過(guò)比較風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值確定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)總體級(jí)別。測(cè)定某一特定項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)的概率；量化項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響，決定項(xiàng)目可能需要的成本和時(shí)間的應(yīng)急儲(chǔ)備；通過(guò)量化各風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)的影響程度，贈(zèng)別出最需要關(guān)注的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)相互聯(lián)系風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量分析一般在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定性分析之后進(jìn)行。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定性分析與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量分析可以分別單獨(dú)使用，也可以一起使用，這決定于項(xiàng)目的時(shí)間、預(yù)算的要求和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)以及影響對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)性定量說(shuō)明的需要。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定性分析風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定量分析定義定性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析是評(píng)估已識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)78需要提供的信息和依據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)項(xiàng)目狀態(tài)項(xiàng)目類型數(shù)據(jù)精確性概率范圍及后果假設(shè)前提風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)優(yōu)先次序清單歷史信息專家判斷其他計(jì)劃編制的輸出運(yùn)用的方法與工具訪談概率/影響風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)評(píng)分矩陣專家判斷法十大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)項(xiàng)目跟蹤風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率和影響敏感性分析決策樹(shù)分析模擬（蒙特卡羅分析）分析的結(jié)果項(xiàng)目總體風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等級(jí)項(xiàng)目?jī)?yōu)先次序清單需進(jìn)一步分析和管理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)清單風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定性分析結(jié)果中反映的趨勢(shì)。經(jīng)量化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)優(yōu)先次序清單項(xiàng)目概率分析完成成本和時(shí)間目標(biāo)的概率定量分析結(jié)果中反映的趨勢(shì)需要提供的信息和依據(jù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理計(jì)劃運(yùn)用的方法與工具79風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃的編制概念：針對(duì)已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)制定行動(dòng)方案和確定行動(dòng)措施的過(guò)程，其目標(biāo)在于增加實(shí)現(xiàn)項(xiàng)目目標(biāo)的機(jī)會(huì)，減少對(duì)項(xiàng)目的威脅。這一過(guò)程包括確定和分派相應(yīng)的人員和單位負(fù)責(zé)每項(xiàng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措施，保證已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)能夠得到合適的處理。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃的編制概念：針對(duì)已識(shí)別的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)制定行動(dòng)方案和確定行80項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃（riskregister)序號(hào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響應(yīng)對(duì)策略具體應(yīng)對(duì)措施負(fù)責(zé)人項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃（riskregister)序號(hào)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)事件風(fēng)81RiskResponsePlanning

Thebasicresponsestrategiesfornegativerisk:RiskavoidanceRiskacceptanceRisktransferenceRiskmitigationThebasicresponsestrategiesforpositiverisks:RiskexploitationRisksharingRiskenhancementRiskacceptanceRiskResponsePlanningThebas82風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：通過(guò)變更項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃，從而消除風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和產(chǎn)生風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的條件，或者保護(hù)項(xiàng)目的目標(biāo)免受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響。如縮小項(xiàng)目范圍、延長(zhǎng)工期、采用成熟的技術(shù)、避免使用缺乏經(jīng)驗(yàn)的承包商。轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：設(shè)法將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的結(jié)果連同對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)的權(quán)利轉(zhuǎn)讓給第三方。轉(zhuǎn)移風(fēng)險(xiǎn)需要付出相應(yīng)的成本包括：保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)、履約保證金、擔(dān)保費(fèi)用等。緩解風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：采取一定措施將某一負(fù)面風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響事件的概率和其后果將地道到一種可以接受的限度。緩解風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)注意成本收益的比較，保證風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理投資的合理性。接受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：當(dāng)某一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響在可承受的范圍之內(nèi)，或者項(xiàng)目團(tuán)隊(duì)沒(méi)能找到其他合適的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略時(shí)，不改變?cè)杏?jì)劃去應(yīng)對(duì)某一風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。采用接受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的策略需要制定：應(yīng)急計(jì)劃（contingencyplan),退卻計(jì)劃（fallbackplan)、應(yīng)急補(bǔ)助和儲(chǔ)備（contingencyallowance）。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)策略規(guī)避風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：通過(guò)變更項(xiàng)目計(jì)劃，從而消除風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和產(chǎn)生風(fēng)83RiskMonitoringAndControlRiskmonitoringandcontrolinvolvesexecutingtheriskmanagementprocessestorespondtoriskevens.Executingtheriskmanagementprocessmeansensuringthatriskawarenessisanongoingactivityperformedbytheentireprojectteamthroughouttheentireproject.RiskMonitoringAndControlRis84Reassessment,riskaudits,varianceAndtrendanalysis,technicalperformancemeasurements,reserveanalysis,AndstatusmeetingsorperiodicriskreviewssuchasThetoptenriskitemtrackingmethodToolsandtechnicalRequestedchanges,Recom