Topic1

INTRODUCTION

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PROJECTSELECTIONNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityI.IntroductionNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversity1.EvolutionofanIdeaPeoplehavebeenplanningandmanagingProjectssincethedawnoftime.Wheneverandwherevercivilizationstookroot,therewereprojectstomanage:buildingtoerect,roadstopave,lawstowrite.Withouttheadvancedtools,techniquesandmethodologieswehavetoday,peoplecreatedprojecttimelines,locatedmaterialsandresourcesandweighedtheriskinvolved.Examples:greatwall……Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityOvertime,peoplerealizedthatthetechniquesforcostcontrol,timelinedevelopment,resourceprocurementandriskmanagementwereapplicabletoawiderangeofprojects,whethererectingbridges,rotatingcropsordecidinghowtogovernthemselves.Theseearlyideaweretheprecursorstoasetofmanagementtechniqueswenowknowas“modernprojectmanagement”.Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityModernorganizationsarefindingthatprojectmanagementprovidesmanyadvantages--nottheleastofwhichisimprovingthebottomline!Savvycustomersdemandmoreandbetterproductsandfasterservices.Time-to-marketpressuresforcesgreaterefficiency.Professionalprojectmanagementhasfounditsplaceintoday’scompetitive,globalbusinessarena.Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityThepastseveraldecadeshavebeenmarkedbyarapidgrowthintheuseofprojectmanagementasameansbywhichOrg.achievetheirobjectives.PMhasemergedbecausethecharacteristicsofourlate20thsocietydemandthedevelopmentofnewmethodsofmanagement.Theexponentialexpansionofhumanknowledge;Thegrowingdemandforbroadrangeofcomplex,sophisticated,customizedgoodsandservices;Theevolutionofworldwidecompetitivemarkets.Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityAll3forcescombinetomandatetheuseofTEAMtosolveproblemsthatusedtobesolvablebyindividuals.Knowledgeexpansion-TEAM:callforhighlevelofcoordinationandcooperationbetweengroupsofpeople.IntensiveCompetition-maketheircomplex,customizedoutputsavailableasquicklyaspossible.“Time-to-market”iscritical.Theprojectsundertakearelargeandgettinglarger.“Themorewecando,themorewetrytodo”.Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityProjectfailstoooftenSystemsprojects:30-45%ofsystemprojectsfailpriortocompletion.Overhalfofallsystemprojectsoverruntheirbudgetsandschedulesbyup200%ormore.Combinedcostsoffailureandoverrunstotalinthehundredsofbillionsofdollars.Computerworld’ssurvey:failedsystemprojectscostmorethan$100billionperyear;oneoftwoprojectsoverrunitsbudgetby180%ormore;AsurveyofwhatwasmissinginPMprocessindicated:projectoffice-42%;integratedmethods-41%;trainingandmonitoring-38%;policiesandprocedures-35%;implementationplans-23%;executivesupport-22%Exampleoffailedproject……China,RestoftheworldNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversity2.WhatisaProject?Org.Performwork.Workgenerallyinvolveseitheroperationsorprojects.Operation:ongoingandrepetitiveProject:temporaryanduniqueprojectisatemporaryendeavorundertakentoachieveaparticularaim.Everyprojecthasadefinitebeginningandadefiniteend.Examples:runningapoliticalcampaign…...Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityInthebroadestsense,aprojectisaspecific,finitetasktobeaccomplished.Whetherlarge-orsmall-scaleorwhetherlong-orshort-runisnotparticularlyrelevant.Whatrelevantisthattheprojectbeseenasaunit.Attributes:Purpose,Lifecycle,Interdependencies,Uniqueness,ConflictM&M,p.8-9Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityProjectstakeholdersandconflictIndividualsororganizationswhoareactivelyinvolvedintheproject,orwhoseinterestmaybepositivelyornegativelyaffectedasaresultofprojectexecutionorsuccessfulprojectcompletion.Theyinclude:projectmanager,customers,performingorganization,sponsor,suppliersandcontractors,teammembersandtheirfamilies,governmentagency,lobbyingorganizationsetcthestakeholdersoftenhaveverydifferentobjectivesthatmaycomeintoconflict.Examples:theownerofrealestatedevelopmentproject,localgoverningbody,environmentgroup,nearbyresidents…...Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityTheprojectlifecycle%ofprojectcompletion:Slowstart----Quickmomentum----Slowfinish(Fig.1-2,p.13)100Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityProjectlifecycle(Fig.1-3):ConceptionSelectionPlanning,scheduling,monitoring,controlEvaluationandterminationExamplesofProjectlifecycle:seePMBOK1996,p.13-16,Fig,2-2,2-3,2-4,2-5.Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityLevelofeffortpeakeffortlevelconceptionselectionplanning--controlevaluationandterminationNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityUncertaintyoftheprojectcostatspecificpointsintimecostttimeNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversity3WhatisprojectmanagementProjectmanagementistheapplicationofknowledge,skills,toolsandtechniquestoabroadrangeofactivitiesinordertomeetorexceedstakeholderneedsandexpectationsfromaproject.Thiswillinvolvebalancingcompetingdemandsamong:Scope,time,cost,andquality;Stakeholderswithdifferingneedsandexpectations;Identifiedrequirementsandunidentifiedrequirements.Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityProject’sGeneralObjectives:performance,costandtimeFig.1-1,p.3:Performance,cost,time,andprojecttargetsrequiredperformance--budgetlimit--duedatetrade-offsNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityPERFORMANCETARGETCOSTTIME(SCHEDULE)Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityProjectmanagementfocusescriticalattentionontheinterdependentnatureofcomplextasks--anaction,orfailuretotakeaction,inoneareawillusuallyaffectotherareas.Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityTheprojectmanagementknowledgeareasProjectintegrationmanagement:projectplandevelopment,projectplanexecution,overallchangecontrolProjectscopemanagement:initiation,scopeplanning,scopedefinition,scopeverification,scopechangecontrolProjecttimemanagement:activitydefinition,activitysequencing,activitydurationestimating,scheduledevelopment,schedulecontrolProjectcostmanagement:resourcesplanning,costestimating,costbudgeting,costcontrolNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityProjectqualitymanagement:Qualityplanning,qualityassurance,qualitycontrolProjecthumanresourcemanagement:organizationalplanning,staffacquisition,teamdevelopmentProjectcommunicationmanagement:communicationplanning,informationdistribution,performancereporting,administrativeclosureProjectriskmanagement:riskidentification,riskquantification,riskresponsedevelopment,riskresponsecontrolProjectProcurementmanagement:procurementplanning,solicitationplanning,solicitation,sourceselection,contractadministration,contractclose-out.Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityProjectmanagementhelpsorganizationsmeettheircustomers’needbystandardizingroutinetasksandreducingthenumberoftasksthatcouldpotentiallybeforgotten.Projectmanagementensuresthatavailableresourcesareusedinmosteffectiveandefficientmanner.Projectmanagementprovidesseniorexecutivesinsightinto“whatishappening””and““wherethingsaregoing”withintheirorganization.Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityManyorg.AroundtheworldsuchasNASA,IBM,AT&TutilizePMtoenableinnovativeprocess,toplan,toorganize,andcontrolstrategicinitiative,tomonitorenterpriseperformance,analyzesignificantdeviationsandforecasttheirimpactontheorganizationandprojects.TheapplicationofPMprinciplesenablestheseniorexecutiveto:Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityEstablishmeasuresofsuccessQuantifyvaluecommensuratewithcoatIncorporatequalityprinciplesEnsurefasttime-to-marketEnablecustomerfocusandalignmentOptimizetheuseoforganizationalresourcesPutstrategicplanintopracticeREADINGS…...Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityII.ProjectSelectionNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityProjectSelectionProjectselectionistheprocessofevaluatingindividualprojectorgroupsofprojects,andthenchoosingtoimplementsomesetofthemsothattheobjectivesoftheparentOrg.willbeachieved.“Determiningtherightprojectstopursuewiththerightpeople”Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityMainpointsTypesofprojectselectionmodelsLimitation,strengths,andweaknessesofprojectselectionmodelsNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversity1CriteriaforprojectselectionmodelsRealismCapabilityFlexibilityEasetouseCostEasytocomputerizationNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversity2ThenatureofprojectselectingmodelsModeldonotmakethedecisions,peopledoAllmodels,howeversophisticated,areonlypartialrepresentationsoftherealitytheyaremeanttoreflect.Meetthefirm’sobjectives:financialgoals/non-financialgoalsNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityAlistoffactorsthatcontributeorg.’sobjectives(goals)(M&M:PP.44-46):Productionfactors,18Marketingfactors,10Financialfactors,9Personnelfactors,10Administrativeandmiscellaneousfactors,14Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityProductionfactorstimeuntilreadytoinstalllengthofdisruptionduringinstallation/degreeofdisruptionduringinstallationtimeuntiloperatingasdesired---learningcurveeffortsonwasteandrejectsenergyrequirementfacilityandotherequipmentrequirementsafetyofprocessotherapplicationoftechnologyconsistencywithcurrenttechnologicalknow-howchangeincosttoproduceaunitoutput/changeintimetoproduceaunitoutputchangeinrawmaterials/availabilityofrawmaterialsrequireddevelopmenttimeandcostimpactoncurrentsupplierschangeinqualityofoutputchangeinqualitycontrolproceduresNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityMarketingfactorssizeofpotentialmarketforoutputprobablemarketshareofoutputtimeuntilmarketshareisacquiredimpactoncurrentproductlineabilitytocontrolqualityconsumeracceptanceimpactonconsumersafetyestimatedlifeofoutputshapeoflifecyclecurvespin-offprojectpossibilitiesNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityFinancialfactorsprofitability,netpresentvalueoftheinvestmentimpactoncashflowpayoutperiodcashrequirementtimeuntilbreak-evensizeofinvestmentrequiredimpactonseasonalandcyclicalfluctuationscostofgettingsystemuptospeedleveloffinancialriskNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityPersonalfactorstrainingrequirementlaborskillrequirementavailabilityofrequiredlaborskillslevelofresistancefromcurrentworkforceotherworkerreactionschangeinsizeoflaborforcechangeinsex,age,orracialdistributionoflaborforceinter-andintra-groupcommunicationreqirementsupportlaborrequirementimpactonworkingconditionsNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityAdministrativeandmiscellaneousfactorsmeetgovernmentsafetystandardsmeetgovernmentenvironmentstandardsimpactoninformationsystemimpactoncomputerusageneedforconsultinghelp,insideandoutsidereactionofstockholdersandsecuritymarketspatentandtradesecretprotectionimpactonimagewithcustomers,suppliers,andcompetitorscostofmaintainingskillinnewtechnologyvulnerabilitytosinglesupplierdegreetowhichweunderstandnewtechnologyeleganceofnewprocessdegreetowhichnewprocessdiffersfromcurrentprocessmanagerialcapacitytodirectandcontrolnewprocessNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversity3TypeofprojectselectionmodelsNon-numericmodels:thesacredcow;theoperatingnecessity;thecompetitivenecessity;theproductlineextension;comparativebenefitmodelNumericmodels:Profit/profitability-singlegoal;Scoring-multi-goals;Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityComparativebenefitmodelAnOrg.hasmanyprojectstoconsider,ORDERINGtheprojectsIt’snotaformalmodel,iswidelyadoptedforselectiondecisionsonallsortsofprojects.PEERREVIEWtechniques:Q-Sort,figure2-1,p.49Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityHighlevelLowlevelMediumlevelMediumlevelOriginaldeckLowlevelHighlevelVeryhighhighVerylowlowNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityForeachparticipantintheexercise,assembleadeckofcards,withthenameanddescriptionofoneprojectoneachcard.Instructeachparticipanttodividethedeckinto2piles,onerepresentingahighpriority,theotheralowprioritylevelInstructeachparticipanttoselectcardfromeachpiletoformathirdpilerepresentingthemedium-prioritylevel.Instructeachparticipanttoselectcardsfromthehigh-levelpiletoyieldanotherpilerepresentingtheveryhighlevelofpriority;selectcardsfromlowlevelpilerepresentingtheverylowlevelofpriority.Finally,instructeachparticipanttosurveytheselectionsandshiftanycardsthatseemoutoftheplaceuntiltheclassificationaresatisfactory.Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityProfit/profitabilitymodelPaybackperiodAveragerateofreturnInternalrateofreturnDiscountcashflow:Strategybehindthemodel.Mistakes…...ProfitabilityindexNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversity4DiscountedCashFlowNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityStrategybehindtheDFCPopularmistakes:examples,Productioncapacity?Marketcapacity?StrategyProductmarket:compete-monopolise-innovationCapitalmarket:opportunitycostNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversity5OtherprofitabilitymodelsPacifico’smethodr=probabilityofresearchsuccessd=probabilityofdevelopmentsuccess,givenresearchsuccessp=probabilityofprocesssuccess,giventhedevelopmentsuccessc=probabilityofcommercialsuccess,giventheprocesssuccessC:totalcostofR&DeffortforprojectS:estimatedaverageannualsalesvolumeinunitsofproductP:estimatedaverageprofitperunitL:estimatedlifeoftheproductextensioninyearsNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityCommentsonprofit-profitabilitymodelsseeM&MP.53-54Advantagessimpletouseandunderstandaccountingdatamodeloutputisintermsfamiliartobusinessdecisionmakerallow““absolute””go/no-godecisionsNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityDisadvantagesignoreallnon-moneyfactorssomeofthemdonotincludediscountingsensitivetoerrorsintheinputdatafortheearlyyearsoftheproject…...Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversity6ScoringmodelsMultiplecriteriatoevaluatetheprojectUn-weighted0-1factormodel,Fig.2-2,M&Mp.56Un-weightedfactorscoringmodelWeightedfactorscoringmodelConstrainedweightedfactorscoringmodelNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityWeightedfactorscoringmodelj=1,2,…….nNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityExample:PP.59-61,Getting’WheelsTableA.CriteriaandweightsforCarpurchasingTableB.Carselectioncriteria,measuresanddatasourcesFigureA.PerformancemeasuresandtheequivalentscoresforselectionofaCarFigureB.ScoresforalternativecarsonselectioncriteriaNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityNov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityConstrainedweightedfactorscoringmodelwhere=0or1Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityTheseconstraintsrepresentprojectcharacteristicsthatmustbepresentorabsentinorderfortheprojecttobeacceptable.Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversityCommentsonscoringmodeladvantages:allowmultiplecriteria;structurallysimpleandeasytounderstand;directreflectionofmanagerialpolicy;easilyalteredtoaccommodatechangesintheenvironmentormanagerialpolicy;weightedscoringmodelsallowforthefactthatsomecriteriaaremoreimportantthanothers;alloweasysensitiveanalysis.Thetrade-offbetweentheseveralcriteriaarereadilyobservable.disadvantages:relativemeasure;linearandelementsbeassumedtobeindependent;smallweightselementhaslittleimpactonfinal;Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversity7ProjectProposalProjectproposalisthesetofdocumentssubmittedforevaluation:ExecutiveSummary+CoverLetterThenatureofthetechnicalproblemandhowitistobeapproachedTheplanforimplementingtheprojectonceithasbeenacceptedTheplanforlogisticsupportandadministrationoftheprojectAdescriptionofthegroupproposingtodothework,plusitspastexperienceinsimilarwork.Nov.,2001WanjunJiang,GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversity9、靜夜夜四無無鄰，，荒居居舊業(yè)業(yè)貧。。。12月月-2212月月-22Wednesday,December21,202210、雨中黃葉葉樹，燈下下白頭人。。。00:55:0400:55:0400:5512/21/202212:55:04AM11、以我獨沈沈久，愧君君相見頻。。。12月-2200:55:0400:55Dec-2221-Dec-2212、故故人人江江海海別別，，幾幾度度隔隔山山川川。。。。00:55:0400:55:0400:55Wednesday,December21,202213、乍見翻疑疑夢，相悲悲各問年。。。12月-2212