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INDIA’S
FUTURE29January2007
RBRoyChoudhuryMemoriallectureMumbaiINDIA’S29January2007RB1Eventhoughtheworldhasjustdiscoveredit,theIndiagrowthstoryisnotnew.Ithasbeengoingonfor25yearsold
Eventhoughtheworldhasjust2
WhatistheIndiastory?
WhatistheIndiastory?31)RisingGDPgrowth
%averageannualGDPgrowth
1900–19501.01950–19803.51980–20026.02002–2006 8.0Sources:1900-1990:AngusMaddison(1995),MonitoringtheWorldEconomy,1990-2000:CensusofIndia(2001),2000-2005FinanceMinistry
IndiaStory
1)RisingGDPgrowth42)Populationgrowthisslowing
%averageannualgrowth
1901–19501.0 1951–19802.2 1981–19902.1 1991–20001.8
2001–20101.5Sources:1900-1990:AngusMaddison(1995),MonitoringtheWorldEconomy,1990-2000:CensusofIndia(2001)
IndiaStory
2)Populationgrowthisslowin5
%195017199052200065 2010(proj) 80 Source:CensusofIndia(2001)3.LiteracyisrisingIndiaStory
6
%
Million
People19808652000222202010(proj)32368
Source:TheConsumingClass,NationalCouncilofAppliedEconomicResearch,2002
4.MiddleclassisexplodingIndiaStory
7
198046%200026%2010(proj) 16%1%ofthepeoplehavebeencrossingpovertylineeachyearfor20years.Equals~200million.5.PovertyisdecliningIndiaStory
5.PovertyisdecliningIndiaS86.Productivityisrising
IndiaStory
30%to40%ofGDPgrowthisduetorisingproductivity6.Productivityisrising
Ind9
(US$ppp)
19801178
20003051Source:WorldBank7.PercapitaincomegainsIndiaStory
108.Indiaisnowthe4thlargesteconomy
IndiaStory
AnditwillcrossJapanbetween2012and2014tobecomethe3rdlargest8.Indiaisnowthe4thlarges11
THEINDIAMODELISUNIQUE
THEINDIAMODELISUNIQ12DRIVERSOFGROWTH
India
EastandS.E.Asia
Domestic ExportsDRIVERSOFGROWTHIndia13DRIVERSOFGROWTH
India
EastandS.E.AsiaDomestic Exports
Services ManufacturingDRIVERSOFGROWTHIndia14DRIVERSOFGROWTH
India
EastandS.E.AsiaDomestic ExportsServices Manufacturing
Consumption InvestmentDRIVERSOFGROWTHIndia15DRIVERSOFGROWTH
India
EastandS.E.AsiaDomestic ExportsServices ManufacturingConsumption Investment
Hightech,capitalLowtech,labourintensiveindustryintensiveindustryDRIVERSOFGROWTHIndia16IMPLICATIONSOFINDIAMODEL
DomesticledInsulationfromglobaldownturnsLessvolatilityIMPLICATIONSOFINDIAMODEL 17IMPLICATIONOFINDIAMODEL
ServicesledHaveweskippedtheindustrialrevolution?Howdowetakepeoplefromfarmstocities?IMPLICATIONOFINDIAMODEL 18IMPLICATIONOFINDIAMODEL
ConsumptionledPeoplefriendly:Consumptionas%ofGDP
India64Europe58China42Lessinequality–GINIINDEX
India33U.S41China45Brazil59
TheworldneedsanotherbigconsumingeconomyaftertheU.S.IMPLICATIONOFINDIAMODEL 19
ReasonsforSuccess
India’ssuccessismarketledwhereasChina’sisstateinduced.TheentrepreneurisatcentreoftheIndianmodel
ReasonsforSu20RiseofgloballycompetitiveIndiancompanies:Reliance,JetAirways,Infosys,Wipro,Ranbaxy,BharatForge,TataMotors,TCS,Bharati,ICICIandHDFCBanksRiseofgloballycompetitive21Indiahasavibrantprivatespace>100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS$1billionIndiahasavibrantprivatesp22Indiahasavibrantprivatespace>100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS$1billion>1000IndianCompanieshavereceivedforeigninstitutionalinvestmentIndiahasavibrantprivatesp23Indiahasavibrantprivatespace>100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS$1billion>1000IndianCompanieshavereceivedforeigninstitutionalinvestment>125Fortune500companieshaveR&DbasesinIndiaIndiahasavibrantprivatesp24Indiahasavibrantprivatespace>100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS$1billion>1000IndianCompanieshavereceivedforeigninstitutionalinvestment>125Fortune500companieshaveR&DbasesinIndia>390Fortune500companieshaveoutsourcedsoftwaredevelopmenttoIndia.Indiahasavibrantprivatesp25Indiahasavibrantprivatespace>100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS$1billion>1000IndianCompanieshavereceivedforeigninstitutionalinvestment>125Fortune500companieshaveR&DbasesinIndia>390Fortune500companieshaveoutsourcedsoftwaredevelopmenttoIndia.<2%badloansinIndianbanks(vs~20%inChina)Indiahasavibrantprivatesp26Indiahasavibrantprivatespace>100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS$1billion>1000IndianCompanieshavereceivedforeigninstitutionalinvestment>125Fortune500companieshaveR&DbasesinIndia>390Fortune500companieshaveoutsourcedsoftwaredevelopmenttoIndia.<2%badloansinIndianbanks(vs~20%inChina)>80%creditgoestoprivatesector(vs~10%inChina)Indiahasavibrantprivatesp27Butpublicspaceisaproblem
Althoughwehavea:+Dynamicdemocracywith honestelectionsButpublicspaceisaproblem28Publicspaceisaproblem
Althoughwehavea:
+Dynamicdemocracy
+Free,livelymediaandpressPublicspaceisaproblemAlth29Publicspaceisaproblem
+Dynamicdemocracywith
+Free,livelymediaandpressButthereis:
-Poorgovernance
Publicspaceisaproblem30Publicspaceisaproblem
+Dynamicdemocracy
+Free,livelymediaandpress-Poorgovernance
-Highpopulistsubsidies,whichresultsinahighfiscaldeficitPublicspaceisaproblem+31Publicspaceisaproblem
+Dynamicdemocracy
+Free,livelymediaandpress-Poorgovernance-HighsubsidiesHighfiscaldeficit
-Nomoneyforinfrastructure
Publicspaceisaproblem+32Publicspaceisaproblem
+Dynamicdemocracy
+Free,livelymediaandpress-Poorgovernance-HighsubsidiesHighfiscaldeficit-Creakyinfrastructure-Inefficientgovernmentcompanies
Publicspaceisaproblem+33Earlierwehadworldclassinstitutions,buttheyarenowfailingBureaucracyJudiciaryPoliceEarlierwehadworldclassins34Contrastbetweenpublicandprivatespaceraisesthequestion:
IsIndiarisingdespitethestate?Contrastbetweenpublicandpr35
Economygrowsatnightwhengovernmentisasleep
Economygrowsatnightw36WhatexplainsIndia’seconomicsuccess?Evenslowreformsaddup -stategettingoutoftheway -everygovernmenthasreformed since1991
WhatexplainsIndia’seconomic37KeyReformsOpenedeconomytotradeandinvestmentDismantledcontrolsLoweredtariffsDroppedtaxratesBrokepublicsectormonopoliesKeyReformsOpenedeconomytot38WhatexplainsIndia’seconomicsuccess?Evenslowreformsaddup-stategettingoutoftheway
2)Youngmindsareliberated
WhatexplainsIndia’seconomic39
MentalRevolution
-‘IwanttobeBilgay’-Raju’ssecretofsuccess-Banianisationofsociety -100cablechannelsfor$3-Hinglish
背景模板紫色條紋背景模板課件40WhatexplainsIndia’seconomicsuccess?Evenslowreformsaddup-stategettingoutoftheway
Youngmindsareliberated3)IndiahasfounditscompetitiveadvantageintheknowledgeeconomyWhatexplainsIndia’seconomic41LookingForward7%-8%economicgrowthDemocracywillnotpermitmorethan8%1.5%PopulationgrowthLookingForward7%-8%economi42
($)
200021002005 3050 20205800 204016,800 206637,000
Thismeansapercapitaincomeroughlyof(onapppbasis): ($) Thismeansaperc43
Whywillgrowthcontinue?
Demographicdividend
44Demographictrendpointstosharpincreasesininputfactors25+yrs0-25yrsDemographicSplit1.5bn1.1bnLaborForceLaborForcewilldoubleinthenext20yearsDemographictrendpointstosh45DemographictrendpointstosharpincreasesininputfactorsAgeDependencySavingsRateHighersavingsandinvestmentratewilltranslateintohigherGDPgrowthDemographictrendpointstosh46India’sdemographicadvantagemeansthatitshighgrowthwillcontinuelongertermwhileChinawillslowIndia’sdemographicadvantage47
%198082000222010 32202050Westofthe Kanpur-Chennailine204050Eastofthe Kanpur-ChennailineINDIAWILLGRADUALLYTURNMIDDLECLASS
48
“By2010Indiawillhaveworld’slargestnumberofEnglishspeakers”
“When300millionIndiansspeaka wordinacertainway,thatwillbethewaytospeakit.”
-Prof.DavidCrystal,CambridgeEncyclopediaoftheEnglishLanguage
“By2010Indiawillhave49Whatcouldstoptheshow?
FiscaldeficitInfrastructureBadgovernanceNuclearwarWhatcouldstoptheshow?Fisc50REFORMSCHOOL
Labour
REFORMSCHOOL51REFORMSCHOOL
Labour
AgricultureREFORMSCHOOL52SecondGreenRevolutiontechnologicallyled,basedonGMseedslaborintensiveneedsreformsSecondGreenRevolution53REFORMSCHOOL
LabourAgriculture
Power
REFORMSCHOOL54REFORMSCHOOL
LabourAgriculturePowerRedtape
REFORMSCHOOL55REFORMSCHOOL
LaborAgriculturePower
Redtape
Governance
REFORMSCHOOLLabor56
CorporateGovernance
-HighinIndia-LowinChinaCorporateGovernance57BottomLineIndianprosperityisonautopilotCan’tdowithoutgovernment.Butgovernancereformwilltaketime,tillmiddleclassisdominant.Humancapitalwillcontinuetoflowerbasedonprivateinitiative,anddrivethenationBottomLineIndianprosperityi58
Indiahaslaw,Chinahasorder
-Indiagotdemocracybeforecapitalismandthishasmadeallthedifference
-ItwillbeslowerthanChinabutitspathwillbesurer
-Indiamorelikelytopreserveitswayoflife
Indiahaslaw,Chinahas59
TheWiseElephant
60INDIA’S
FUTURE29January2007
RBRoyChoudhuryMemoriallectureMumbaiINDIA’S29January2007RB61Eventhoughtheworldhasjustdiscoveredit,theIndiagrowthstoryisnotnew.Ithasbeengoingonfor25yearsold
Eventhoughtheworldhasjust62
WhatistheIndiastory?
WhatistheIndiastory?631)RisingGDPgrowth
%averageannualGDPgrowth
1900–19501.01950–19803.51980–20026.02002–2006 8.0Sources:1900-1990:AngusMaddison(1995),MonitoringtheWorldEconomy,1990-2000:CensusofIndia(2001),2000-2005FinanceMinistry
IndiaStory
1)RisingGDPgrowth642)Populationgrowthisslowing
%averageannualgrowth
1901–19501.0 1951–19802.2 1981–19902.1 1991–20001.8
2001–20101.5Sources:1900-1990:AngusMaddison(1995),MonitoringtheWorldEconomy,1990-2000:CensusofIndia(2001)
IndiaStory
2)Populationgrowthisslowin65
%195017199052200065 2010(proj) 80 Source:CensusofIndia(2001)3.LiteracyisrisingIndiaStory
66
%
Million
People19808652000222202010(proj)32368
Source:TheConsumingClass,NationalCouncilofAppliedEconomicResearch,2002
4.MiddleclassisexplodingIndiaStory
67
198046%200026%2010(proj) 16%1%ofthepeoplehavebeencrossingpovertylineeachyearfor20years.Equals~200million.5.PovertyisdecliningIndiaStory
5.PovertyisdecliningIndiaS686.Productivityisrising
IndiaStory
30%to40%ofGDPgrowthisduetorisingproductivity6.Productivityisrising
Ind69
(US$ppp)
19801178
20003051Source:WorldBank7.PercapitaincomegainsIndiaStory
708.Indiaisnowthe4thlargesteconomy
IndiaStory
AnditwillcrossJapanbetween2012and2014tobecomethe3rdlargest8.Indiaisnowthe4thlarges71
THEINDIAMODELISUNIQUE
THEINDIAMODELISUNIQ72DRIVERSOFGROWTH
India
EastandS.E.Asia
Domestic ExportsDRIVERSOFGROWTHIndia73DRIVERSOFGROWTH
India
EastandS.E.AsiaDomestic Exports
Services ManufacturingDRIVERSOFGROWTHIndia74DRIVERSOFGROWTH
India
EastandS.E.AsiaDomestic ExportsServices Manufacturing
Consumption InvestmentDRIVERSOFGROWTHIndia75DRIVERSOFGROWTH
India
EastandS.E.AsiaDomestic ExportsServices ManufacturingConsumption Investment
Hightech,capitalLowtech,labourintensiveindustryintensiveindustryDRIVERSOFGROWTHIndia76IMPLICATIONSOFINDIAMODEL
DomesticledInsulationfromglobaldownturnsLessvolatilityIMPLICATIONSOFINDIAMODEL 77IMPLICATIONOFINDIAMODEL
ServicesledHaveweskippedtheindustrialrevolution?Howdowetakepeoplefromfarmstocities?IMPLICATIONOFINDIAMODEL 78IMPLICATIONOFINDIAMODEL
ConsumptionledPeoplefriendly:Consumptionas%ofGDP
India64Europe58China42Lessinequality–GINIINDEX
India33U.S41China45Brazil59
TheworldneedsanotherbigconsumingeconomyaftertheU.S.IMPLICATIONOFINDIAMODEL 79
ReasonsforSuccess
India’ssuccessismarketledwhereasChina’sisstateinduced.TheentrepreneurisatcentreoftheIndianmodel
ReasonsforSu80RiseofgloballycompetitiveIndiancompanies:Reliance,JetAirways,Infosys,Wipro,Ranbaxy,BharatForge,TataMotors,TCS,Bharati,ICICIandHDFCBanksRiseofgloballycompetitive81Indiahasavibrantprivatespace>100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS$1billionIndiahasavibrantprivatesp82Indiahasavibrantprivatespace>100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS$1billion>1000IndianCompanieshavereceivedforeigninstitutionalinvestmentIndiahasavibrantprivatesp83Indiahasavibrantprivatespace>100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS$1billion>1000IndianCompanieshavereceivedforeigninstitutionalinvestment>125Fortune500companieshaveR&DbasesinIndiaIndiahasavibrantprivatesp84Indiahasavibrantprivatespace>100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS$1billion>1000IndianCompanieshavereceivedforeigninstitutionalinvestment>125Fortune500companieshaveR&DbasesinIndia>390Fortune500companieshaveoutsourcedsoftwaredevelopmenttoIndia.Indiahasavibrantprivatesp85Indiahasavibrantprivatespace>100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS$1billion>1000IndianCompanieshavereceivedforeigninstitutionalinvestment>125Fortune500companieshaveR&DbasesinIndia>390Fortune500companieshaveoutsourcedsoftwaredevelopmenttoIndia.<2%badloansinIndianbanks(vs~20%inChina)Indiahasavibrantprivatesp86Indiahasavibrantprivatespace>100IndianCompanieshavemarketcapofUS$1billion>1000IndianCompanieshavereceivedforeigninstitutionalinvestment>125Fortune500companieshaveR&DbasesinIndia>390Fortune500companieshaveoutsourcedsoftwaredevelopmenttoIndia.<2%badloansinIndianbanks(vs~20%inChina)>80%creditgoestoprivatesector(vs~10%inChina)Indiahasavibrantprivatesp87Butpublicspaceisaproblem
Althoughwehavea:+Dynamicdemocracywith honestelectionsButpublicspaceisaproblem88Publicspaceisaproblem
Althoughwehavea:
+Dynamicdemocracy
+Free,livelymediaandpressPublicspaceisaproblemAlth89Publicspaceisaproblem
+Dynamicdemocracywith
+Free,livelymediaandpressButthereis:
-Poorgovernance
Publicspaceisaproblem90Publicspaceisaproblem
+Dynamicdemocracy
+Free,livelymediaandpress-Poorgovernance
-Highpopulistsubsidies,whichresultsinahighfiscaldeficitPublicspaceisaproblem+91Publicspaceisaproblem
+Dynamicdemocracy
+Free,livelymediaandpress-Poorgovernance-HighsubsidiesHighfiscaldeficit
-Nomoneyforinfrastructure
Publicspaceisaproblem+92Publicspaceisaproblem
+Dynamicdemocracy
+Free,livelymediaandpress-Poorgovernance-HighsubsidiesHighfiscaldeficit-Creakyinfrastructure-Inefficientgovernmentcompanies
Publicspaceisaproblem+93Earlierwehadworldclassinstitutions,buttheyarenowfailingBureaucracyJudiciaryPoliceEarlierwehadworldclassins94Contrastbetweenpublicandprivatespaceraisesthequestion:
IsIndiarisingdespitethestate?Contrastbetweenpublicandpr95
Economygrowsatnightwhengovernmentisasleep
Economygrowsatnightw96WhatexplainsIndia’seconomicsuccess?Evenslowreformsaddup -stategettingoutoftheway -everygovernmenthasreformed since1991
WhatexplainsIndia’seconomic97KeyReformsOpenedeconomytotradeandinvestmentDismantledcontrolsLoweredtariffsDroppedtaxratesBrokepublicsectormonopoliesKeyReformsOpenedeconomytot98WhatexplainsIndia’seconomicsuccess?Evenslowreformsaddup-stategettingoutoftheway
2)Youngmindsareliberated
WhatexplainsIndia’seconomic99
MentalRevolution
-‘IwanttobeBilgay’-Raju’ssecretofsuccess-Banianisationofsociety -100cablechannelsfor$3-Hinglish
背景模板紫色條紋背景模板課件100WhatexplainsIndia’seconomicsuccess?Evenslowreformsaddup-stategettingoutoftheway
Youngmindsareliberated3)IndiahasfounditscompetitiveadvantageintheknowledgeeconomyWhatexplainsIndia’seconomic101LookingForward7%-8%economicgrowthDemocracywillnotpermitmorethan8%1.5%PopulationgrowthLookingForward7%-8%economi102
($)
200021002005 3050 20205800 204016,800 206637,000
Thismeansapercapitaincomeroughlyof(onapppbasis): ($) Thismeansaperc103
Whywillgrowthcontinue?
Demographicdividend
104Demographictrendpointstosharpincreasesininputfactors25+yrs0-25yrsDemographicSplit1.5bn1.1bnLaborForceLaborForcewilldoubleinthenext20yearsDemograph
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