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Session39–Workshop:

AnalyzingDefinedBenefitPensionPlans&PostretirementBenefits

GregCliftonVP/SeniorAnalystMoody’sInvestorsService1Session39–Workshop:

AnalyziRatingMethodology2RatingMethodology2CashFlowConsiderationsPensionplansUnderstandcontributionrequirementsRoughestimatecanbemadewithSFAS87informationDuetoundisclosedcredits,somecompaniesmaynotfacelargecontributionrequirementsforseveralyearsCanbeoffsetbycontributingstock

OPEBPrimaryfocusonbenefitspaid(recordedon“pay-asyou-go”basis)CanobtainbenefitspaidinformationintherollforwardoftheAPBOCananalyzegrowthin:NetperiodicpostretirementcostBenefitpaymentsCanuseaboveratestoprojectfuturebenefitpayments3CashFlowConsiderationsPensioBalanceSheetAdjustments:Forpensions RecordedDebtPerBalanceSheet+ Add:Off-balancesheetliabilities(e.g.,leaseobligations,guarantees)+ Add:NetunderfundedPBOfromnotesto

financialstatements=AdjustedDebtOPEB–mayincludetheunderfundedamountoftheAPBOinadjusteddebtincertaincircumstances4BalanceSheetAdjustments:4IncomeStatementAsAdjustedByMoody’s:Servicecost(noadjustments)Interestcost(adjustedonlyifMoody’sdisagreeswithdiscountrate)Amortizationofpriorservicecost(Notused)Recognizednetactuarialgains(Notused)Amortizationoftransitionasset(Notused)Actuallossesonplanassets,orActualgainsuptotheamountofinterestcost=AdjustedNetPeriodicPension/OPEBcost5IncomeStatementAsAdjustedByFinancialStatementInformation–ACloserLook6FinancialStatementInformatioPensionPlanFundedStatusFinancingcostoftheplanChangesinactuarialassumptions(i.e.attrition,retirement,mortality,discountandcomp.Increaserates)PBO:Projectedbenefitobligation.PVjectedsalaryincreasesEconomicpositionofthefirm'spensionplans=Fairvalueofplanassets-PBOActuarialpresentvalueofbenefitsearnedduringthecurrentperiod(byvirtueofhavingworkedanotheryear)7PensionPlanFundedStatusFinaBSandISReportingEconomicpositionofthefirm'spensionplans=Fairvalueofplanassets-PBONetbalancesheetentryforplanstatusIfplanlevelpensionliability<(ABO-planassets),angibleasset+chargetocomprehensiveincome.Expectedlongtermreturnonplanassets.Keysubjectivedriverofnetperiodicpensioncost.Amortization/smoothingofprioryeargainsandlossesfromreestimateofPBOandaccumulateddeferredreturnonassets.MostlyamortizationofpriorservicecostduetoplanamendmentsReportedpensioncostinP&L.8BSandISReportingEconomicpoAssumptionsv.RealityProxyforfixedincomereturnsProxyforequityreturnsDiscountrateusedtocomputebenefitobligation.Rateatwhichpensionobligationscouldbesettled.ShouldmoveinlinewithMoody'sAa.Shouldreflectreasonableassumptionsgivenassetmix9Assumptionsv.RealityProxyfoCaseStudy–DowChemical10CaseStudy–DowChemical10Solution:PartI1. Whatisthefundedstatus(i.e.underfundedPBO)oftheU.S.plans(PBO–FVA)? 2003:$(2,304) 2002:$(2,536) 2. Whatisthefundingratio(FVA/PBO)? 2003:82.9% 2002:79.0%Whatistheamountofbenefitspaidfor2003? Pension:$737 OPEB:$166Doanalystscareaboutbenefitspaid?Whyorwhynot? Pension:No,theyarepaidoutoftheplan OPEB:Yes,theyaregenerallypaidbythecompany11Solution:PartI1. WhatistheSolution:PartI5.Howmuchmoneydidthecompanycontributetotheplanin: 2003:$235 2002:$112 Howmuchdoesthecompanyexpecttocontributein2004?Pension: $37OPEB(bestguess): $166-1707.Tobediscussed12Solution:PartI5.HowmuchmoSolution:PartII

2003

2002Whatisthetotalamountofrecordeddebt? $13,109 $13,036WhatistheunderfundedPBO? 2,304

2,536 Pensionadjusteddebt: $15,413 $15,572Totalequity $9,175 $7,626 Whataretheleverageratios(BV) 58.8% 63.1%Whatarethepensionadjustedleverageratios?62.7% 67.1%Debt+Equity: Book $22,284 $20,662 Adjusted $24,588 $23,19813Solution:PartII 2003 Solution:PartIII

2003

2002EBIT $2,341 $32TotalNetPeriodicPensionIncome (28) (145)ServiceCost (242)

(219) EBIT,asadjusted: $2,071 $(332) %EBITchanged (11.5)% >(1,000)%Netincome(loss) $1,730 $(338)TotalNetPeriodicPensionIncome (28) (145)ServiceCost (242) (219)Pensioninterestcost (773) (748)Actualgains(losses) 773

(1,230) Netincome(loss),asadjusted $1,460 $(2,680) %NetIncome(loss)changed (15.6)% (693)%14Solution:PartIII 2003HowMightTheFollowingActionsBeViewedByMoody’s?DiscretionaryexcesspensioncontributionsIncurringdebttomakediscretionarycontributionsContributingcompanystocktopensionplanContributingtoVEBAsforOPEBplans15HowMightTheFollowingActionQ&A16Q&A16演講完畢，謝謝觀看！演講完畢，謝謝觀看！Session39–Workshop:

AnalyzingDefinedBenefitPensionPlans&PostretirementBenefits

GregCliftonVP/SeniorAnalystMoody’sInvestorsService18Session39–Workshop:

AnalyziRatingMethodology19RatingMethodology2CashFlowConsiderationsPensionplansUnderstandcontributionrequirementsRoughestimatecanbemadewithSFAS87informationDuetoundisclosedcredits,somecompaniesmaynotfacelargecontributionrequirementsforseveralyearsCanbeoffsetbycontributingstock

OPEBPrimaryfocusonbenefitspaid(recordedon“pay-asyou-go”basis)CanobtainbenefitspaidinformationintherollforwardoftheAPBOCananalyzegrowthin:NetperiodicpostretirementcostBenefitpaymentsCanuseaboveratestoprojectfuturebenefitpayments20CashFlowConsiderationsPensioBalanceSheetAdjustments:Forpensions RecordedDebtPerBalanceSheet+ Add:Off-balancesheetliabilities(e.g.,leaseobligations,guarantees)+ Add:NetunderfundedPBOfromnotesto

financialstatements=AdjustedDebtOPEB–mayincludetheunderfundedamountoftheAPBOinadjusteddebtincertaincircumstances21BalanceSheetAdjustments:4IncomeStatementAsAdjustedByMoody’s:Servicecost(noadjustments)Interestcost(adjustedonlyifMoody’sdisagreeswithdiscountrate)Amortizationofpriorservicecost(Notused)Recognizednetactuarialgains(Notused)Amortizationoftransitionasset(Notused)Actuallossesonplanassets,orActualgainsuptotheamountofinterestcost=AdjustedNetPeriodicPension/OPEBcost22IncomeStatementAsAdjustedByFinancialStatementInformation–ACloserLook23FinancialStatementInformatioPensionPlanFundedStatusFinancingcostoftheplanChangesinactuarialassumptions(i.e.attrition,retirement,mortality,discountandcomp.Increaserates)PBO:Projectedbenefitobligation.PVjectedsalaryincreasesEconomicpositionofthefirm'spensionplans=Fairvalueofplanassets-PBOActuarialpresentvalueofbenefitsearnedduringthecurrentperiod(byvirtueofhavingworkedanotheryear)24PensionPlanFundedStatusFinaBSandISReportingEconomicpositionofthefirm'spensionplans=Fairvalueofplanassets-PBONetbalancesheetentryforplanstatusIfplanlevelpensionliability<(ABO-planassets),angibleasset+chargetocomprehensiveincome.Expectedlongtermreturnonplanassets.Keysubjectivedriverofnetperiodicpensioncost.Amortization/smoothingofprioryeargainsandlossesfromreestimateofPBOandaccumulateddeferredreturnonassets.MostlyamortizationofpriorservicecostduetoplanamendmentsReportedpensioncostinP&L.25BSandISReportingEconomicpoAssumptionsv.RealityProxyforfixedincomereturnsProxyforequityreturnsDiscountrateusedtocomputebenefitobligation.Rateatwhichpensionobligationscouldbesettled.ShouldmoveinlinewithMoody'sAa.Shouldreflectreasonableassumptionsgivenassetmix26Assumptionsv.RealityProxyfoCaseStudy–DowChemical27CaseStudy–DowChemical10Solution:PartI1. Whatisthefundedstatus(i.e.underfundedPBO)oftheU.S.plans(PBO–FVA)? 2003:$(2,304) 2002:$(2,536) 2. Whatisthefundingratio(FVA/PBO)? 2003:82.9% 2002:79.0%Whatistheamountofbenefitspaidfor2003? Pension:$737 OPEB:$166Doanalystscareaboutbenefitspaid?Whyorwhynot? Pension:No,theyarepaidoutoftheplan OPEB:Yes,theyaregenerallypaidbythecompany28Solution:PartI1. WhatistheSolution:PartI5.Howmuchmoneydidthecompanycontributetotheplanin: 2003:$235 2002:$112 Howmuchdoesthecompanyexpecttocontributein2004?Pension: $37OPEB(bestguess): $166-1707.Tobediscussed29Solution:PartI5.HowmuchmoSolution:PartII

2003

2002Whatisthetotalamountofrecordeddebt? $13,109 $13,036WhatistheunderfundedPBO? 2,304

2,536 Pensionadjusteddebt: $15,413 $15,572Totalequity $9,175 $7,626 Whataretheleverageratios(BV) 58.8% 63.1%Whatarethepensionadjustedleverageratios?

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