究報告的信息披露和法律聲明大產(chǎn)量基本持平。上周247家鋼企生鐵日產(chǎn)周環(huán)比降0.02%，五大成品鋼材合計產(chǎn)量周環(huán)比增0.75%；鋼材社會庫存降0.75%。上周五大鋼材廠庫環(huán)降1.12%，社庫周環(huán)降0.75%；上周表需仍回升。上周螺紋表需環(huán)增6.86%，五大鋼材合計表需環(huán)增1.80%。鋼價跌0.01%。上周Myspic鋼價指數(shù)跌0.01%；螺紋主力期貨漲0.43%，熱卷主力期貨漲0.31%；原燃料價格有所上漲，其中礦價漲幅較大。因生鐵產(chǎn)量維持相對高位，普氏礦價指數(shù)上周漲5.24%，礦石主力漲7.19%。焦炭現(xiàn)貨價格跌2.38%，焦炭主力期貨合約漲5.73%。唐山廢鋼價格漲1.13%。BDI指數(shù)跌12.69%；噸鋼盈利環(huán)降。鋼價持平，現(xiàn)貨礦價漲幅5.24%，使得上周主要鋼材品種噸鋼毛利均下跌。最近冷軋表現(xiàn)一直較好；鋼鐵板塊指數(shù)上周跌2.91%。其中武進不銹跌約8%；進口礦港口庫存環(huán)比微降。上周進口礦港口庫存12032萬噸，周環(huán)比降19萬噸，周環(huán)比降0.15%，年同比降3.37%；Mysteel統(tǒng)計的全國247家鋼企盈利率約51.08%。環(huán)比回落7.79個百分點。鋼鐵行業(yè)受經(jīng)濟政策影響較大，最近政策頻出利好鋼鐵。需求淡季。每年7月8月份，由于暴雨臺風酷暑等，導(dǎo)致這兩個月的建筑鋼材需求環(huán)比減少，需求淡季模式。從最近盈利情況看，板材要好于建材。個股投資建議。建議關(guān)注寶鋼股份、華菱鋼鐵、南鋼股份、中信特鋼、首鋼等；風險提示。政策風險、外部風險等。22的信息披露和法律聲明1.市場行情：板塊跌2.91% 51.1板塊行情：上周Wind鋼鐵指數(shù)跌2.91% 51.2個股行情：武進不銹跌約8% 52.鋼材現(xiàn)貨價格跌0.01% 62.1現(xiàn)貨價格：上周Myspic鋼價指數(shù)跌0.01% 62.2期貨價格：螺紋主力漲0.43%，熱卷主力漲0.31% 73.成本：普氏礦指漲5.24% 83.1礦石期貨主力漲7.19% 83.2燃料：焦炭現(xiàn)貨跌2.38%，焦炭主力期貨漲5.73% 83.3上周唐山廢鋼漲1.13%，BDI指數(shù)跌12.69% 9下跌 105.供給：上周日產(chǎn)鐵環(huán)降0.02%，五大鋼材環(huán)增0.75% 116.上周社會庫存環(huán)降0.75% 116.1五大鋼材廠庫周環(huán)降1.12%，社庫周環(huán)降0.75% 116.2礦石港口庫存周環(huán)降0.15% 12 33圖12020年至今鋼鐵指數(shù)和大盤累計漲跌幅(%) 5圖2上周鋼鐵板塊個股周漲跌幅(%) 5 圖4棒線材價格(元/噸) 6圖5板材價格(元/噸) 6圖6型材價格(元/噸) 7圖7管材價格(元/噸) 7圖8螺紋鋼期貨主力合約及現(xiàn)貨價格(元/噸) 7圖9螺紋鋼期貨主力合約基差(元/噸) 7圖10熱軋卷板期貨主力合約及現(xiàn)貨價(元/噸) 7圖11熱軋卷板期貨主力合約基差(元/噸) 7 圖13進口鐵礦石價格(青島港車板價)(元/濕噸) 8圖14普氏62%鐵礦石指數(shù)(美元/噸) 8圖15鐵礦石期貨主力合約收盤價(元/噸) 8圖16唐山二級冶金焦價格(元/噸) 9圖17焦煤焦炭期貨主力合約收盤價(元/噸) 9圖18唐山廢鋼價格(元/噸) 9圖19海運費價格指數(shù)(波羅的海干散貨航運指數(shù)BDI) 9圖20海運費：西澳-青島(BCI-C5，美元/噸) 9圖21海運費：巴西圖巴郎-青島(BCI-C3，美元/噸) 9圖22用澳礦模擬的噸鋼毛利(元/噸) 10圖23Mysteel統(tǒng)計的247家鋼企盈利率(%) 10圖24247家鋼企生鐵日均產(chǎn)量(萬噸) 11圖25鋼材周度產(chǎn)量(萬噸) 11 圖29全國主要港口鐵礦石庫存(萬噸) 1344目錄表1鋼鐵指數(shù)上周市場表現(xiàn)(%) 5鋼鐵指數(shù)表現(xiàn) 6表3上海鋼材現(xiàn)貨價格 6表4螺紋與熱卷期貨價格(元/噸) 7表5鐵礦石價格走勢 8表6焦煤焦炭價格(元/噸) 8表7廢鋼和海運費價格匯總(元/噸) 9表8鋼材毛利匯總(元/噸) 10表9生鐵與鋼材產(chǎn)量周度環(huán)比 11表10Mysteel五大鋼材廠庫和社庫(萬噸) 11表11鐵礦石港口庫存(萬噸) 1255的信息披露和法律聲明表1鋼鐵指數(shù)上周市場表現(xiàn)(%)WIND鋼鐵指數(shù)跌幅2.91714相對收益-93漲跌幅2040相對收益-x圖12020年至今鋼鐵指數(shù)和大盤累計漲跌幅(%)120WIND鋼鐵指數(shù)上證指數(shù)深證成指滬深300120100806040200-20-40Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23圖2上周鋼鐵板塊個股周漲跌幅(%)2%1%0%-2%-3%-4%-5%-6%-7%-8%-9%銀龍股份寶鋼股份河鋼股份新興鑄管包鋼股份凌鋼股份金洲管道山東鋼鐵重慶鋼鐵酒鋼宏興杭鋼股份馬鋼股份太鋼不銹鞍鋼股份中信特鋼首鋼股份安陽鋼鐵南鋼股份沙鋼股份華菱鋼鐵柳鋼股份方大特鋼中南股份三鋼閩光本鋼板材*ST西鋼新鋼股份撫順特鋼武進不銹久立特材永興材料常寶股份66的信息披露和法律聲明240220200180160140120100240220200180160140120100表2鋼鐵指數(shù)表現(xiàn)pic材指數(shù)價指數(shù)跌幅01%%09%表3上海鋼材現(xiàn)貨價格元/噸螺紋高線熱軋冷軋中板鍍鋅槽鋼工字鋼焊管無縫鋼材價格3780414840354730407750193670370043804900周漲跌3-1-410-1813-30-50-300周漲跌幅0.08%-0.02%-0.10%0.21%-0.44%0.26%-0.81%-1.33%-0.68%0.00%圖3Myspic鋼材價格指數(shù)MySpic綜合鋼價指數(shù)MySpic指數(shù):長材MySpic指數(shù):扁平Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23圖4棒線材價格(元/噸)7000螺紋鋼(HRB40020mm,全國均價)7000高線(6.5mm,全國均價)65006000550050004500400035003000Jan-20Jan-Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23資料來源：Wind，HTI圖5板材價格(元/噸)85007500熱軋板卷(3.0mm,全國均價)85007500冷軋板卷(1.0mm,上海價格)中板(普20mm,全國均價)鍍鋅板卷(1.0mm,全國均價)65005500450035002500Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23-50-5077的信息披露和法律聲明圖6型材價格(元/噸)6500槽鋼(16#,北京價格)工字鋼(25#,北京價格)6000550050004500400035003000圖7管材價格(元/噸)7500直縫焊管(1.5寸*3.25，上海價格)7500無縫管(108*4.5，上海價格)700065006000550050004500400035003000表4螺紋與熱卷期貨價格(元/噸)螺紋期貨主力螺紋現(xiàn)貨基差熱卷期貨主力熱卷現(xiàn)貨基差格371637301439173900-17周漲跌幅0.43%0.00%300.31%-0.26%5跌160-1612-10-22圖8螺紋鋼期貨主力合約及現(xiàn)貨價格(元/噸)5000000圖10熱軋卷板期貨主力合約及現(xiàn)貨價(元/噸)熱軋卷板期貨主力合約收盤價熱軋板卷現(xiàn)貨(上海,Q235B,4.75mm)7000650060005500500045004000350030002500圖9螺紋鋼期貨主力合約基差(元/噸)1100900700500300100-300圖11熱軋卷板期貨主力合約基差(元/噸)45035025015050-15088的信息披露和法律聲明表5鐵礦石價格走勢鐵礦石普氏62%鐵礦石指數(shù)鐵礦石期貨主力澳大利亞61.5%PB粉礦巴西65%卡拉加斯粉礦價格(元/噸)114.50827.0889968跌幅周漲跌(元/噸)5.7055.53218MyIpic指數(shù):進口礦280MyIpic指數(shù):進口礦280MyIpic指數(shù):國產(chǎn)礦2301801308030圖13進口鐵礦石價格(青島港車板價)(元/濕噸)澳大利亞61.5%PB粉礦巴西65%卡拉加斯粉礦200018001600140012001000800600400圖14普氏62%鐵礦石指數(shù)(美元/噸)250230210190170150130110907050圖15鐵礦石期貨主力合約收盤價(元/噸)150013001100900700500300表6焦煤焦炭價格(元/噸)山二級冶金焦力力價格(元/噸)跌幅38%漲跌(元/噸) 99的信息披露和法律聲明4500400035003000250020001500100045004000350030002500200015001000圖16唐山二級冶金焦價格(元/噸)4500400035003000250020001500Jun-20Jun-Jun-20Jun-21Jun-22Jun-23圖17焦煤焦炭期貨主力合約收盤價(元/噸)4700焦炭期貨主力合約收盤價4700焦煤期貨主力合約收盤價4200370032002700220017001200700Jan-20Jan-21Jan-23表7廢鋼和海運費價格匯總(元/噸)廢鋼不含稅價西澳-青島(美元/噸)巴西圖巴郎-青島(美元/噸)格跌幅65%跌 69 7圖18唐山廢鋼價格(元/噸)唐山6-8mm廢鋼市場價(不含稅)鋼鋼廠不含稅鐵水成本(64家中小鋼廠調(diào)查統(tǒng)計)圖19海運費價格指數(shù)(波羅的海干散貨航運指數(shù)BDI)6000500040003000200010000圖20海運費：西澳-青島(BCI-C5，美元/噸)282383Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23圖21海運費：巴西圖巴郎-青島(BCI-C3，美元/噸)4838288Jan-18Jan-19Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23的信息披露和法律聲明上周主要鋼材品種中噸鋼毛利均下跌。冷軋是最近表現(xiàn)最好的鋼材品種。表8鋼材毛利匯總(元/噸)滬中(短)比增-9-44-26津大型津無(自煉)津焊(自煉)津焊(購板)津焊(購帶)比增-62-35圖22用澳礦模擬的噸鋼毛利(元/噸)津線滬熱滬冷滬中津螺津線滬熱滬冷滬中116001400120010008006004002000Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23-200Mysteel統(tǒng)計的247家鋼企上周盈利率51.08%，環(huán)比回落7.79個百分點。圖23Mysteel統(tǒng)計的247家鋼企盈利率(%)247家鋼鐵企業(yè)：盈利率：中國(周)10090807060504030200Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23的信息披露和法律聲明247家鋼企生鐵日產(chǎn)螺紋線材熱軋冷軋中厚五大合計周/日產(chǎn)(萬噸)245.57263.45115.8531877.73162.51937.54周增量(萬噸)-0.05-0.356.223.34-3.841.657.02周環(huán)比增-0.02%-0.13%5.37%1.05%-4.94%1.02%0.75%圖24247家鋼企生鐵日均產(chǎn)量(萬噸)260250240230220210200190247247家鋼鐵企業(yè)：鐵水：日均產(chǎn)量：中國(周)170160Jan-2Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22圖25鋼材周度產(chǎn)量(萬噸)1,2001,1001,000900800700五大鋼材合計產(chǎn)量600Jan-2Jan-20Jan-21Jan-23表10Mysteel五大鋼材廠庫和社庫(萬噸)量比庫50庫75%0%-26%鋼材社會庫存(萬噸，左軸)同比(%，右軸)30002700240021001800150012009006003000Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-23806040200-20-40-60長材社會庫存(萬噸，左軸)同比(%，右軸)806040200-20-40-602000180016001400120010008006004002000Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23板材社會庫存(萬噸，左軸)同比(%，右軸)900800700600500400300200100060504030200-20-30-40Jan-20Jan-21Jan-22Jan-23表11鐵礦石港口庫存(萬噸)全國主要港口鐵礦石庫存(萬噸)存比增減比15%%的信息披露和法律聲明圖29全國主要港口鐵礦石庫存(萬噸)180001600014000120001000080006000Jan-16Jul-16Jan-17Jul-17Jan-18Jul-18Jan-19Jul-19Jan-20Jul-20Jan-21Jul-21Jan-22Jul-22Jan-23Jul-237.風險提示政策風險、外部風險等。的信息披露和法律聲明APPENDIX1SummaryInvestmentPoints:1.Theproductionvolumeremainsstable,withaslightdecreaseof0.02%indailyironoutputandanincreaseof0.75%insteelproductionfrom247steelcompanieslastweek.2.Thesteelinventorydecreasedby0.75%,witha1.12%decreaseinsteelmillinventoryanda0.75%decreaseinsocialinventory.3.Demandforthreadedsteelroseby6.86%anddemandforfivemajorsteelproductsincreasedby1.80%lastweek.4.Steelpricesslightlyfellby0.01%.Futurespricesofthreadedandhot-rolledsteelroseby0.43%and0.31%respectively.5.Thecostofrawmaterialsincreasedsignificantlywithironorepricesincreasingby5.24%and7.19%,whilecokespotpricesfellby2.38%andscrapsteelpricesinTangshanroseby1.13%.BDIIndexfellby12.69%.6.Duetostablesteelpricesandincreasedironoreprices,grossprofitspertonofsteelfelllastweek.7.Thesteelindexdecreasedby2.91%,withasignificantdropofabout8%inWujinStainless.8.Stocksofimportedoreattheportdecreasedslightlylastweek,withyear-on-yeardecreaseof3.37%.9.Theprofitmarginof247steelcompaniesnationwidewasabout51.08%,adecreaseof7.79%.Thesteelindustryissignificantlyaffectedbyeconomicpolicies.10.InJulyandAugusteachyear,constructionsteeldemanddropsduetoheavyrain,typhoon,andhightemperatures,whichmarkaseasonofweakdemand.Sheetmetalperformsbetterthanbuildingmaterialsbasedontherecentprofitsituation.11.Recommendedstocks:Baosteel,HualingSteel,Nansteel,CITICSpecialSteel,Shougang.12.Risks:Policyandexternalrisks,amongothers.12下下m34 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