本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告1?半年報名酒韌性彰顯，地產(chǎn)酒有較優(yōu)表現(xiàn)。白酒板塊18家上市公司23H1合計實現(xiàn)營收2140.23億元，同比增長?半年報名酒韌性彰顯，地產(chǎn)酒有較優(yōu)表現(xiàn)。白酒板塊18家上市公司23H1合計實現(xiàn)營收2140.23億元，同比增長16.62%；實現(xiàn)歸母凈利潤837.05億元，同比增長19.35%；其中Q2實現(xiàn)營業(yè)收入830.78億元，同比增長17.85%，環(huán)比增速提升；實現(xiàn)歸母凈利潤301.51億元，同比增長19.69%。白酒企業(yè)上半年整體呈現(xiàn)良好增長態(tài)勢，分價格表現(xiàn)分化，其中高端白酒營收、利潤分別同比增長17.35%、19.20%，表現(xiàn)穩(wěn)健；次高端白酒受制于商務(wù)消費疲軟，同比收入增速弱于平均水平，為11.49%；蘇酒、徽酒等地產(chǎn)酒受益于人口回流及居民消費價位帶提升，收入、利潤分別實現(xiàn)同比增長20.93%、22.22%，表現(xiàn)更優(yōu)。量價端：行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級延續(xù)，噸價整體穩(wěn)步提升。其中瀘州老窖中高檔酒23H1噸價同比22H1增長29.1%；古井貢酒23H1噸價同比22H1增長29.5%，價格端增長表現(xiàn)較快。?盈利能力穩(wěn)健增長，費用率表現(xiàn)分化。白酒板塊23Q2毛利率為79.9%，同比提升1.4pcts；凈利率為37.4%，同比持平。各酒企費用投放節(jié)奏分化，高端酒企相對平穩(wěn)，蘇酒、西北酒等部分區(qū)域龍頭及其他酒企渠道投入增加。23Q2白酒板塊銷售費用率為11.29%，管理費用率為5.64%，同比均表現(xiàn)穩(wěn)健。?消費復(fù)蘇延續(xù)，Q2環(huán)比Q1有改善，合同負(fù)債蓄水池略降?，F(xiàn)金流、銷售收現(xiàn)端：23Q2白酒板塊上市公司經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流凈額及銷售收現(xiàn)均實現(xiàn)增長，同比分別+117.58%、8.22%。庫存去化周期下，酒企主動調(diào)節(jié)回款節(jié)奏，截至23年6月底，酒企合同負(fù)債整體約362億元，同比減少4.57%，高端及區(qū)域龍頭酒企回款節(jié)奏有所控制，維護(hù)渠道“蓄水池”，為后續(xù)增長提供保障。?我們判斷消費旺季臨近，表現(xiàn)或有分化：受制于今年以來白酒批價下行，經(jīng)基本處于“弱現(xiàn)實、弱預(yù)期”狀態(tài)，品牌名酒依然保持對渠道強話語權(quán)，有望率先完成全年回款任務(wù)。高端白酒需求相對剛性，建議重點關(guān)注批價變化，以驗證聚飲等仍是復(fù)蘇較為明確的消費場景，優(yōu)勢地區(qū)地產(chǎn)酒龍頭企業(yè)或有更優(yōu)的動銷表現(xiàn)；次高端在渠道庫存壓力下，今年以來增速放緩，未來有望受益經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇，將有更高彈性。?投資建議：我們建議選擇高端及地產(chǎn)龍頭，瀘州老窖踐行“東進(jìn)南圖”戰(zhàn)略，股權(quán)激勵加持下，仍是高端板塊營收利潤增速最快品牌；貴州茅臺是穩(wěn)健首選，五糧液估值有望修復(fù)。區(qū)域酒板塊升級趨勢仍將延續(xù)，蘇酒板塊今世緣百億目標(biāo)達(dá)成率高、洋河股份仍具估值性價比；徽酒亦保持?jǐn)U容，推薦迎駕貢酒、古井貢酒，關(guān)注口子窖、金種子酒；把握西北區(qū)域發(fā)展階段增長勢能，推薦金徽酒、伊力特；次高端白酒與外部經(jīng)濟(jì)活躍度高度關(guān)聯(lián)，站在復(fù)蘇反彈的視角關(guān)注次高端彈性，推薦山西汾酒，舍得酒業(yè)，關(guān)注水井坊、酒鬼酒。?風(fēng)險提示：白酒消費場景復(fù)蘇不及預(yù)期；食品安全問題。重點公司盈利預(yù)測、估值與評級EPS(元)2022A2023EPE(倍)2022A2023E (元)2024E2024E600519.SH貴州茅臺1838.0049.9359.6470.86373126推薦000858.SZ五糧液163.10推薦8.746.887.7421249000568.SZ瀘州老窖233.577.069.0511.48332620推薦山西汾酒600809.SH253.74推薦10.698.516.65383024洋河股份推薦137.695002304.SZ6.237.409.03223年中報業(yè)績綜述2023年09月07日維持評級師師究助理S09000280508452wangyanhai@S10000280508453zqcomS07000280508452mszqcom相關(guān)研究023/09/07要關(guān)注什么？-2023/08/01邊際下降-2023/07/023/07/01行業(yè)動態(tài)報告/食品飲料本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告21白酒板塊2023年中報總結(jié)：高端酒確定性延續(xù)，次高端階段承壓，區(qū)域龍頭酒韌性強健 31.1收入端：2023Q2白酒分化增長，高端和地產(chǎn)酒消費韌性較強 31.2利潤端：2023Q2板塊盈利能力向好，費用投放分化 111.3現(xiàn)金流及合同負(fù)債：維護(hù)渠道良性運作，合同負(fù)債“蓄水池”效應(yīng)略減弱 162投資建議 203風(fēng)險提示 21插圖目錄 22表格目錄 22行業(yè)動態(tài)報告/食品飲料本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告3111強2023Q2白酒消費持續(xù)復(fù)蘇，上市酒企呈現(xiàn)分化增長，整體韌性延續(xù)。白酒板塊18家上市公司23H1合計實現(xiàn)營收2140.23億元，同比增長16.62%；實現(xiàn)歸母凈利潤837.05億元，同比增長19.35%；其中Q2實現(xiàn)營業(yè)收入830.78億元，同比增長17.85%，環(huán)比增速提升；實現(xiàn)歸母凈利潤301.51億元，同比增長19.69%。白酒企業(yè)上半年整體呈現(xiàn)良好增長態(tài)勢，分價格表現(xiàn)分化，高端酒及區(qū)域龍頭增長具備韌性，次高端由于商務(wù)消費復(fù)蘇緩慢受損分化加劇。2023Q2高端酒、次高端酒、區(qū)域龍頭和其他酒收入分別為521.71億元、90.87億元、162.68億元和50.99億元。同比增長17.64%、21.93%、23.17%和-2.42%，歸母凈利潤分別為230.58億元、24.63億元、47.77億元和-1.70億元，同比增長18.36%、35.99%、24.83%和-452.10%。圖1：23Q2白酒行業(yè)收入增速表現(xiàn)環(huán)比提升白酒營業(yè)收入(億元)YoY(%)00060%40%20%0%圖2：23Q2白酒行業(yè)利潤增速延續(xù)穩(wěn)定在20%左右白酒歸母凈利潤(億元)YoY(%)000000行業(yè)動態(tài)報告/食品飲料本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告4表1：23H1白酒上市公司營收、歸母凈利潤及同比增速情況匯總(億元)20232023H12023Q22023Q1營收YoY凈利潤YoY營收YoY凈利潤YoY營收YoY凈利潤YoY高端酒1296.7517.35%601.0819.20%521.7117.64%230.5818.36%775.0517.15%370.5019.73%貴州茅臺695.7620.76%359.8020.76%308.2021.72%151.8621.01%387.5620.00%207.9520.59%五糧液455.0610.39%170.3712.83%143.685.07%44.955.11%311.3913.03%125.4215.89%瀘州老窖145.9325.11%70.9028.17%69.8330.46%33.7827.16%76.1020.57%37.1329.10%次高端酒256.0811.49%83.1219.84%90.8721.93%24.6335.99%165.216.47%58.4814.13%山西汾酒190.1123.98%67.6735.00%63.2931.75%19.4849.57%126.8220.44%48.1929.89%舍得酒業(yè)35.2916.64%9.2010.07%15.0832.10%3.5014.83%20.217.28%5.697.34%水井坊15.27-26.38%2.03-45.15%6.732.22%0.43508.87%8.53-39.69%1.59-56.02%酒鬼酒15.41-39.24%4.22-41.23%5.77-32.02%1.22-38.19%9.65-42.87%3.00-42.38%區(qū)域龍頭452.0820.93%146.0322.22%162.6823.17%47.7724.83%289.4019.71%98.2620.98%洋河股份218.7315.68%78.6214.06%68.2716.06%20.969.86%150.4615.51%57.6615.66%古井貢酒113.1025.64%27.7944.85%47.2626.78%12.1047.52%65.8424.83%15.7042.87%今世緣59.6928.47%20.5026.70%21.6730.64%7.9529.13%38.0227.26%12.5525.20%迎駕貢酒31.4324.25%10.6436.53%12.2728.62%3.6459.04%19.1621.60%7.0027.17%口子窖29.1226.79%8.4814.64%13.2134.03%3.1222.78%15.9221.35%5.3610.37%其他酒企126.904.26%6.29-20.46%50.99-2.42%-1.70-452.10%75.919.29%7.997.69%老白干酒22.3210.19%2.17-40.17%12.299.99%1.1518.50%10.0310.43%1.02-61.51%伊力特12.217.71%1.7637.41%4.81-5.57%0.2839.81%7.4018.53%1.4836.97%順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)62.11-4.72%-0.81-302.54%21.24-18.70%-4.09-535.78%40.884.63%3.28214.40%金徽酒15.2324.25%2.5420.06%6.3021.05%0.7353.74%8.9326.61%1.8210.41%金種子酒7.6827.63%-0.3831.35%3.3530.52%0.03-107.87%4.3225.48%-0.41228.11%天佑德酒6.6110.95%0.97-2.65%2.6452.98%0.19-291.80%3.96-6.23%0.77-29.61%皇臺酒業(yè)0.745.51%0.032.20%0.36-2.30%0.01-58.80%0.3914.00%0.0256.32%資料來源：同花順iFind，民生證券研究院(注：順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)除白酒業(yè)務(wù)外包含畜牧及房地產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù))高端酒：品牌力支撐穩(wěn)健性，23Q2貴州茅臺營收、歸母凈利潤實現(xiàn)雙20%同比增長，分別為21.72%、21.01%，持續(xù)掌握超高端定價權(quán)；五糧液收入、業(yè)績5.07%/5.11%，公司主動調(diào)整為后續(xù)增長提供良好終端環(huán)境；瀘州老窖延續(xù)強勁業(yè)績，表現(xiàn)相對領(lǐng)先，23Q2營收/歸母凈利潤同比增速分別實現(xiàn)30.46%、27.16%。次高端酒：基地市場強勢酒企確定性較更高，山西汾酒23Q2營收、歸母凈利潤同比增速分別為31.75%、49.57%，產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)持續(xù)升級，業(yè)績表現(xiàn)強勁；舍得酒業(yè)堅守戰(zhàn)略，23Q2營收、歸母凈利潤同比增速分別為32.10%、14.83%；水井坊利潤轉(zhuǎn)負(fù)為正，酒鬼酒以消化庫存為先，業(yè)績短期承壓，23Q2營收同比增速分別-32.02%。區(qū)域龍頭：龍二增速優(yōu)于龍一，徽酒板塊亮眼。徽酒古井貢行業(yè)動態(tài)報告/食品飲料本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告5酒、迎駕貢酒、口子窖23Q2營收同比增速分別實現(xiàn)26.78%、28.62%、34.03%；歸母凈利潤同比增速分別為47.52%、59.04%、22.78%。蘇酒今世緣百億目標(biāo)下動力強勁，23Q2營收/歸母凈利潤同比增速分別為30.64%/29.13%；洋河股份23Q2營收/歸母凈利潤同比增速分別為16.06%/9.86%。其他酒企中西北酒企金徽酒、伊力特業(yè)績表現(xiàn)較優(yōu)，23Q2歸母凈利潤同比增速分別為53.74%、39.81%。圖3：分價位高端酒及區(qū)域龍頭酒企單季度收入同比增速穩(wěn)定端酒次高端酒區(qū)域龍頭其他80%60%40%20%0%0%0%圖4：23Q2高端酒板塊營收增速為17.64%000100%%60%40%20%0%圖5：23Q2次高端酒板塊營收增速為21.93%次高端酒營收(億元)YoY(%)00120%100%%60%40%20%0%-20%本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告6圖6：23Q2區(qū)域龍頭板塊營收增速為23.17%00%-20%圖7：23Q2其他酒板塊營收增速為-2.42%000%-20%表2：2019-2023年白酒上市公司H1營收及同比增速情況匯總(億元)HH1營業(yè)收入H1營收增速2019H12020H12021H12022H12023H12019H12020H12021H12022H12023H1高端酒746.52823.55951.561105.041296.7521.90%10.32%15.54%16.13%17.35%貴州茅臺394.88439.53490.87576.17695.7618.24%11.31%11.68%17.38%20.76%五糧液271.51307.68367.52412.22455.0626.75%13.32%19.45%12.17%10.39%瀘州老窖80.1376.3493.17116.64145.9324.81%-4.72%22.04%25.19%25.11%次高端酒99.9694.52180.61229.70256.0826.22%-5.45%91.08%27.18%11.49%山西汾酒63.7769.00121.19153.34190.1122.30%7.80%75.51%26.53%23.98%舍得酒業(yè)12.2110.2623.9130.2535.2919.87%-15.95%133.09%26.51%16.64%水井坊16.908.0418.3720.7415.2726.47%-52.41%128.44%12.89%-26.38%酒鬼酒7.097.2217.1425.3715.4135.41%1.87%137.31%48.04%-39.24%區(qū)域龍頭293.43247.98307.46373.83452.0814.72%-15.49%23.98%21.59%20.93%洋河股份159.99134.29155.43189.08218.7310.01%-16.06%15.75%21.65%15.68%古井貢酒59.8855.2070.0790.02113.1025.19%-7.82%26.96%28.46%25.64%今世緣30.5529.1338.5146.4659.6929.45%-4.65%32.20%20.66%28.47%迎駕貢酒18.8213.6821.0125.3031.438.59%-27.32%53.62%20.38%24.25%口子窖24.1915.7022.4322.9729.1212.04%-35.12%42.90%2.42%26.79%其他酒企131.95133.22139.94121.71126.9012.41%0.96%5.05%-13.03%4.26%老白干酒19.5914.9316.5220.2622.3234.33%-23.79%10.61%22.65%10.19%伊力特9.407.9410.3111.3312.21-5.72%-15.60%29.85%9.96%7.71%順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)84.1695.2091.9165.1962.1116.36%13.12%-3.46%-29.07%-4.72%金徽酒212.2615.232.62%-12.67%36.59%26.13%24.25%金種子酒5.064.105.456.027.68-7.80%-19.09%32.98%10.39%27.63%天佑德酒5.423.545.795.956.61-22.46%-34.65%63.61%2.81%10.95%皇臺酒業(yè)0.170.390.250.710.74103.14%135.35%-35.82%179.60%5.51%資料來源：同花順iFind，民生證券研究院(注：順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)除白酒業(yè)務(wù)外包含畜牧及房地產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù))本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告7量價端：行業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級延續(xù)，噸價整體穩(wěn)步提升。高端酒茅五瀘對自身系列產(chǎn)品價格及SKU進(jìn)行戰(zhàn)略調(diào)整，其中貴州茅臺受益于醬酒熱，實現(xiàn)量價齊升；五糧液優(yōu)先渠道動銷，保障銷量及良性庫存，23H1噸價同比22H1減少5.0%，系列酒23H1噸價同比22H1減少23.2%；瀘州老窖中高檔酒23H1噸價同比22H1增長29.1%。次高端量價情況存在分化，其中酒鬼酒23H1噸價同比22H1增長8.7%；水井坊23H1噸價同比22H1減少13.3%；區(qū)域酒及光瓶酒企整體維持量減價升態(tài)勢，其中古井貢酒23H1噸價同比22H1增長29.5%；洋河股份23H1噸價同比22H1增長6.6%。 圖8：茅臺酒22年較19年量增9.7%，價增29.7%銷量(噸，左軸)噸價(萬元，右軸)36,00015002019202020212022 圖9：茅臺系列酒22年較19年量增0.6%，價增66.0%銷量(噸，左軸)噸價(萬元，右軸)4030,00029,80020002022圖10：五糧液23H1噸價同比22H1減少5.0%銷量(噸，左軸)噸價(萬元，右軸)40,000020192020202120222023H1000000圖11：五糧液系列酒23H1噸價同比22H1減少23%0銷量(噸，左軸)噸價(萬元，右軸)8642020192020202120222023H1本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告8圖12：瀘州老窖23H1噸價同比22H1增長29.1%銷量(噸，左軸),000銷量(噸，左軸),0008030,00060000020192020202120222023H1 圖13：山西汾酒22年較19年量增79.8%，價增37.4%銷量(噸，左軸)噸價(萬元，右軸)20151050wind券研究院圖14：舍得酒業(yè)22年較19年量增227%，價減24.4%銷量(噸，左軸)噸價(萬元，右軸),000020192020202120222050銷量(噸，左軸)020192020 銷量(噸，左軸)020192020 噸價(萬元，右軸)2021202223H1302520151050圖16：水井坊23H1噸價同比22H1減少13.3%銷量(噸，左軸)噸價(萬元，右軸)010,00030205,000000201920202021202223H1圖17：古井貢酒23H1噸價同比22H1增長29.5%,0000銷量(噸，左軸)噸價(萬元，右軸)50本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告9 圖18：迎駕貢酒22年較19年量增12.1%，價增32.3%銷量(噸，左軸)噸價(萬元，右軸)121040,0008620,0004202022 圖19：口子窖22年較19年量減0.3%，價增9.9%銷量(噸，左軸)噸價(萬元，右軸),0000,00002019202020212022 圖20：金種子酒22年較19年量增71.5%，價減21.9%銷量(噸，左軸)噸價(萬元，右軸)888,00064000002022圖21：洋河股份23H1噸價同比22H1增長6.6%0銷量(噸，左軸)噸價(萬元，右軸)2050 圖22：今世緣22年較19年量增23.5%，價增31.4%銷量(噸，左軸)噸價(萬元，右軸),0000502022wind券研究院圖23：金徽酒22年較19年量減14.2%，價增42.7%銷量(噸，左軸)噸價(萬元，右軸)15,00014,000500本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告10圖24：老白干酒22年較19年量減23.4%，價增50.9%銷量(噸，左軸)噸價(萬元，右軸),0000201920202021202286420圖25：順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)22年較19年量減30.9%，價增14.1%銷量(噸，左軸)噸價(萬元，右軸)0,000020192020202120221.651.551.451.35本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告1123Q2白酒板塊盈利能力穩(wěn)健增長，費用率表現(xiàn)分化。白酒板塊23Q2毛利率為79.9%，同比提升1.4pcts；分價格帶看，高端酒/次高端酒/區(qū)域龍頭酒/其他酒企23Q2毛利率分別為85.7%/77.1%/74.9%/43%，同比分別+0.2pcts/-1.1pcts/+4.0pcts/+0.9pcts，其中瀘州老窖、洋河股份、古井貢酒、迎駕貢酒同比提升明顯。白酒板塊23Q2凈利率為37.4%，同比持平；分價格帶看，高端酒/次高端酒/區(qū)域龍頭酒/其他酒企23Q2凈利率分別為45.8%/27.3%/29.6%/-3.5%，同比分別+0pcts/+2.6pcts/+0.4pcts/-4.3pcts，其中山西汾酒、水井坊、古井貢酒、迎駕貢酒、金徽酒、金種子酒等同比有所提升，利潤彈性釋放。圖26：23Q2白酒板塊毛利率同比變動1.43%白酒行業(yè)毛利率同比變動(右軸)8%6%4%2%-2%圖27：23Q2白酒板塊凈利率同比持平%%%白酒行業(yè)凈利率同比變動(右軸)8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%行業(yè)動態(tài)報告/食品飲料本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告12表3：23H1白酒上市公司毛利率、凈利率情況匯總(億元)20232023H12023Q22023Q1毛利率同比凈利率同比毛利率同比凈利率同比毛利率同比凈利率同比高端酒86.1%0.3%48.0%0.5%85.7%0.2%45.8%0.0%86.4%0.5%49.5%0.8%貴州茅臺91.8%-0.3%53.7%-0.3%90.8%-1.0%51.3%-0.7%92.6%0.2%55.5%0.0%五糧液76.8%-0.1%39.1%0.6%73.3%-0.6%32.6%-0.1%78.4%0.0%42.1%0.8%瀘州老窖88.3%2.4%48.8%1.0%88.6%3.3%48.7%-1.4%88.1%1.7%48.9%3.1%次高端酒76.8%-0.6%32.6%2.1%77.1%-1.1%27.3%2.6%76.6%-0.3%35.5%2.3%山西汾酒76.3%0.4%35.7%2.8%77.8%-0.6%31.0%3.3%75.6%0.8%38.1%2.7%舍得酒業(yè)75.6%-2.6%26.1%-1.8%71.9%-1.9%23.3%-3.8%78.4%-2.5%28.2%-0.2%水井坊82.5%-2.4%13.3%-4.5%81.6%-3.0%6.4%5.4%83.2%-1.7%18.7%-6.9%酒鬼酒80.1%1.0%27.4%-0.9%77.8%0.0%21.1%-2.1%81.5%1.8%31.1%0.3%區(qū)域龍頭76.1%1.8%32.5%0.3%74.9%4.9%29.6%0.4%76.8%0.1%34.1%0.3%洋河股份76.1%2.2%36.0%-0.5%75.1%8.6%30.7%-1.8%76.6%-0.7%38.4%0.1%古井貢酒78.9%1.4%25.1%3.2%77.8%0.8%26.4%3.8%79.7%1.8%24.3%2.8%今世緣74.5%2.0%34.3%-0.5%72.9%3.7%36.7%-0.4%75.4%1.1%33.0%-0.5%迎駕貢酒70.9%2.7%34.0%3.0%70.6%7.4%29.7%5.6%71.2%-0.2%36.7%1.7%口子窖73.9%-1.6%29.1%-3.1%70.5%-1.5%23.6%-2.2%76.6%-1.4%33.7%-3.3%其他酒企45.3%1.4%4.9%-1.5%43.0%0.9%-3.5%-4.3%46.8%1.6%10.5%-0.1%老白干酒67.2%-1.0%9.7%-8.2%68.6%2.0%9.3%0.7%65.4%-4.8%10.2%-19.1%伊力特47.8%1.5%14.7%2.8%42.1%1.7%5.8%0.8%51.5%0.4%20.4%3.0%順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)32.2%1.2%-1.4%-1.8%21.4%-6.7%-19.3%-16.5%37.7%4.9%8.0%5.4%金徽酒63.8%0.6%16.5%-0.8%62.0%3.3%11.2%2.1%65.0%-1.4%20.3%-3.1%金種子酒30.1%-3.2%-4.8%4.2%33.8%2.4%1.1%17.3%27.2%-7.4%-9.4%-5.8%天佑德酒62.9%-2.8%14.2%-2.3%62.0%2.0%6.4%12.6%63.6%-4.5%19.5%-6.4%皇臺酒業(yè)62.1%-4.0%4.2%-0.1%59.6%-6.4%1.3%-2.8%64.5%-1.9%7.0%2.3%資料來源：同花順iFind，民生證券研究院(注：順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)除白酒業(yè)務(wù)外包含畜牧及房地產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù))行業(yè)動態(tài)報告/食品飲料本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告13圖28：分價位次高端酒酒企23Q2單季度利潤同比增速表現(xiàn)較優(yōu)端酒次高端酒區(qū)域龍頭其他800%600%400%200%0%00%00%00%本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告14表4：2019-2023年白酒上市公司H1歸母凈利潤及同比增速情況匯總(億元)HH速2021H115.54%2019H121.90%2020H110.32%2022H116.13%2023H117.35%2023H11296.752022H11105.042019H1320.362021H1951.562020H1823.55H高端酒貴州茅臺199.51439.53490.87576.17695.7618.24%11.31%11.68%17.38%20.76%五糧液93.36307.68367.52412.22455.0626.75%13.32%19.45%12.17%10.39%瀘州老窖27.5076.3493.17116.64145.9324.81%-4.72%22.04%25.19%25.11%次高端酒18.7194.52180.61229.70256.0826.22%-5.45%91.08%27.18%11.49%山西汾酒11.9069.00121.19153.34190.1122.30%7.80%75.51%26.53%23.98%舍得酒業(yè)1.8510.2623.9130.2535.2919.87%-15.95%133.09%26.51%16.64%水井坊3.408.0418.3720.7415.2726.47%-52.41%128.44%12.89%-26.38%酒鬼酒1.567.2217.1425.3715.4135.41%1.87%137.31%48.04%-39.24%區(qū)域龍頭92.42247.98307.46373.83452.0814.72%-15.49%23.98%21.59%20.93%洋河股份55.82134.29155.43189.08218.7310.01%-16.06%15.75%21.65%15.68%古井貢酒12.4855.2070.0790.02113.1025.19%-7.82%26.96%28.46%25.64%今世緣10.7229.1338.5146.4659.6929.45%-4.65%32.20%20.66%28.47%迎駕貢酒4.4513.6821.0125.3031.438.59%-27.32%53.62%20.38%24.25%口子窖8.9515.7022.4322.9729.1212.04%-35.12%42.90%2.42%26.79%其他酒企11.53133.22139.94121.71126.9012.41%0.96%5.05%-13.03%4.26%老白干酒1.9414.9316.5220.2622.3234.33%-23.79%10.61%22.65%10.19%伊力特2.027.9410.3111.3312.21-5.72%-15.60%29.85%9.96%7.71%順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)6.4895.2091.9165.1962.1116.36%13.12%-3.46%-29.07%-4.72%金徽酒1.357.129.7212.2615.232.62%-12.67%36.59%26.13%24.25%金種子酒-0.324.105.456.027.68-7.80%-19.09%32.98%10.39%27.63%天佑德酒0.223.545.795.956.61-22.46%-34.65%63.61%2.81%10.95%皇臺酒業(yè)-0.160.390.250.710.74103.14%135.35%-35.82%179.60%5.51%資料來源：同花順iFind，民生證券研究院(注：順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)除白酒業(yè)務(wù)外包含畜牧及房地產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù))費用端：各酒企費用投放節(jié)奏分化，高端酒企相對平穩(wěn)，蘇酒、西北酒等部分區(qū)域龍頭及其他酒企渠道投入增加。23Q2白酒板塊銷售費用率為11.29%，管理費用率為5.64%，同比均表現(xiàn)穩(wěn)健。分價位看，高端酒/次高端酒/區(qū)域龍頭/其他酒企23Q2分別實現(xiàn)銷售費用率7.69%、15.16%、17.97%、19.10%，同比-0.65pcts、-4.39pcts、+2.38pcts、+4.71pcts，實現(xiàn)管理費用率5.31%、6.64%、pctspctspcts、1.14%pcts。行業(yè)動態(tài)報告/食品飲料本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告15圖29：23Q2白酒板塊銷售費用率為11.29%白酒銷售費用率同比變動4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%圖30：23Q2白酒板塊管理費用率為5.64%8%6%4%2%白酒管理費用率同比變動2%1%0%-1%-2%-3%表5：23H1白酒上市公司銷售費用率、管理費用率情況匯總(億元)22023H12023Q22023Q1銷售費管理費銷售費管理費銷售費同比管理費變動用率動變動用率動變動用率動高端酒5.84%-0.44%4.72%-0.53%7.69%-0.65%5.31%-0.15%4.59%-0.30%4.33%-0.79%貴州茅臺2.57%-0.05%5.51%-0.80%3.34%-0.51%5.90%-0.02%1.95%0.31%5.19%-1.41%五糧液9.49%-0.73%3.86%-0.10%15.37%-0.57%4.59%-0.18%6.78%-0.60%3.52%-0.03%瀘州老窖10.03%-0.38%3.70%-0.95%11.06%0.95%4.16%-0.82%9.08%-1.58%3.28%-1.10%次高端酒12.88%-3.48%4.50%-0.23%15.16%-4.39%6.64%-0.05%11.63%-3.20%3.33%-0.46%山西汾酒8.99%-3.66%3.02%-0.30%11.06%-4.85%4.90%-0.08%7.95%-3.20%2.08%-0.48%舍得酒業(yè)17.52%0.14%8.60%-1.35%15.20%-0.41%9.27%0.16%19.26%0.80%8.10%-2.36%水井坊35.97%2.43%13.15%3.22%41.13%-2.20%16.92%-0.39%31.91%2.91%10.18%3.69%酒鬼酒27.41%3.86%4.83%2.05%29.72%2.71%6.84%1.97%26.03%4.22%3.63%1.90%區(qū)域龍頭15.19%1.23%4.49%-0.63%17.97%2.38%5.50%-1.31%13.62%0.56%3.92%-0.27%洋河股份10.33%2.47%4.61%-0.74%16.78%6.11%6.55%-1.68%7.41%0.81%3.74%-0.32%古井貢酒26.95%-1.88%5.16%-1.05%24.33%-2.61%4.73%-1.67%28.83%-1.33%5.47%-0.61%今世緣14.92%2.92%2.73%0.17%13.14%3.03%3.87%0.18%15.93%2.88%2.08%0.14%迎駕貢酒8.59%-0.75%3.16%-0.64%11.98%0.07%4.02%-0.90%6.41%-1.36%2.60%-0.51%口子窖13.67%-1.23%5.98%0.44%14.90%0.04%6.89%-0.11%12.66%-2.28%5.22%0.77%其他酒企15.20%1.18%7.36%0.26%19.10%4.71%8.45%1.14%12.58%-1.17%6.63%-0.32%老白干酒30.82%-2.47%9.53%0.55%34.85%4.36%7.99%0.40%25.88%-10.86%11.43%0.72%伊力特9.11%0.53%3.52%0.49%12.92%2.58%4.27%0.61%6.64%-0.50%3.03%0.51%順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)9.45%2.16%6.33%0.21%11.45%6.18%7.28%1.51%8.41%-0.22%5.84%-0.51%金徽酒19.37%3.16%8.98%0.31%21.54%4.69%11.48%1.16%17.83%2.11%7.23%-0.23%金種子酒13.37%-9.17%8.63%-1.40%6.65%-19.9%12.18%1.20%18.57%-0.98%5.88%-3.44%天佑德酒19.71%1.06%10.57%-1.30%28.23%-4.38%14.90%-8.62%14.04%1.08%7.68%0.57%皇臺酒業(yè)19.61%-1.30%16.07%-0.33%20.99%-2.19%13.89%0.24%18.32%-0.12%18.10%-1.29%資料來源：同花順iFind，民生證券研究院(注：順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)除白酒業(yè)務(wù)外包含畜牧及房地產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù))行業(yè)動態(tài)報告/食品飲料本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告16水池”效應(yīng)略減弱現(xiàn)金流、銷售收現(xiàn)：白酒板塊23Q2經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流凈額及銷售收現(xiàn)據(jù)實現(xiàn)增長，同比分別+117.58%、8.22%。高端酒、次高端酒、其他酒企23Q2經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流凈額同比增長亮眼，分別為105.8%、113.0%、102.0%；區(qū)域龍頭酒企23Q2經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流凈額同比減少188.7%。銷售收現(xiàn)方面，23Q2次高端及區(qū)域龍頭酒企表現(xiàn)相對較優(yōu)，同比增速分別為24.9%、23.0%；高端酒、其他酒企同比增速為圖31：23Q2白酒板塊經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流同增117.58%經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流量凈額(億元)yoy0002016Q12016Q42017Q32018Q22019Q12019Q42020Q32021Q22022Q42016Q12016Q42017Q32018Q22019Q12019Q42020Q32021Q22022Q4500%0%-500%-1000%-1500%-2000%-2500%-3000%圖32：23Q2白酒板塊銷售收現(xiàn)同增8.22%000銷售收現(xiàn)(億元)yoy60%40%20%-20%-40%行業(yè)動態(tài)報告/食品飲料本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告17表6：23H1白酒上市公司經(jīng)營性現(xiàn)金流量凈額、銷售收現(xiàn)情況匯總(億元)20232023H12023Q22023Q1經(jīng)營現(xiàn)銷售同比經(jīng)營現(xiàn)同比銷售同比經(jīng)營現(xiàn)同比銷售同比金凈額動收現(xiàn)變動金凈額變動收現(xiàn)變動金凈額變動收現(xiàn)變動高端酒473.6695.7%1297.120.5%310.8105.8%572.74.2%162.9-724.437.4%貴州茅臺303.9272290.4%690.712.9%251.4266.2%333.112.3%52.4176.3%357.613.6%五糧液113.3500.4%430.537.0%17.9-66.1%144.1-18.6%95.4380.4%286.4108.5%瀘州老窖56.538.5%175.816.6%41.440.5%95.425.7%15.133.3%80.47.3%次高端酒59.410.2%247.713.1%21.3113.0%110.824.9%38.1-13.3%136.95.2%山西汾酒52.111.2%177.120.5%17.755.1%78.935.5%34.3-3.0%98.210.7%舍得酒業(yè)6.455.7%40.128.4%4.15339.9%17.836.0%2.3-45.6%22.423.0%水井坊0.1815.1%16.9-20.6%0.3107.5%8.19.4%-0.2-104.1%8.8-36.7%酒鬼酒0.8-72.4%13.6-30.1%-0.8-132.0%6.0-40.3%1.7286.5%7.6-19.3%區(qū)域龍頭61.11181.5%406.125.1%4.8-188.7%159.523.0%56.4455.7%246.626.6%洋河股份2.7106.0%158.923.2%-11.418.3%55.713.8%14.0145.8%103.228.9%古井貢酒47.312.8%129.723.1%16.516.5%52.119.3%30.810.9%77.625.8%今世緣8.0-6.4%57.633.3%-1.0-141.0%23.332.6%9.046.6%34.333.7%迎駕貢酒2.959.2%33.328.7%-2.043.5%13.843.0%4.9-8.0%19.520.2%口子窖0.3110.1%26.726.4%2.6157.5%14.648.9%-2.3-247.9%12.16.9%其他酒企-14.7229.1%116.4-11.0%-6.7102.0%50.8-17.2%-8.0602.9%65.6-5.5%老白干酒1.7-4.7%28.38.9%-0.879.2%11.424.9%2.5-56.6%16.90.3%伊力特1.71381.0%11.2-3.5%-0.838.4%4.1-21.6%2.478.8%7.111.2%順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)-22.1-331.3%43.3-36.1%-6.3-226.5%20.5-46.3%-15.8-57.2%22.8-23.0%金徽酒3.5103.3%16.635.7%1.2224.7%7.393.1%2.3-12.9%9.310.0%金種子酒-0.195.8%8.744.7%-0.192.1%4.252.1%0.099.2%4.538.4%天佑德酒0.63466.5%7.414.8%0.1108.3%2.948.9%0.6-10.6%4.5-0.1%皇臺酒業(yè)0.0-242.8%0.820.4%0.0-93.8%0.44.0%0.0-32.5%0.439.6%資料來源：同花順iFind，民生證券研究院(注：順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)除白酒業(yè)務(wù)外包含畜牧及房地產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù))庫存去化周期下，回款節(jié)奏放緩。23Q2酒企合同負(fù)債整體達(dá)362.05億元，同比減少4.57%，高端及區(qū)域龍頭酒企回款節(jié)奏有所控制，分別環(huán)比-17.15%、-22.46%；次高端現(xiàn)金回款增長明顯，環(huán)比+23.07%，渠道“蓄水池”為后續(xù)增長提供保障。行業(yè)動態(tài)報告/食品飲料本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告18圖33：23Q2白酒板塊整體合同負(fù)債同比增速下降000合同負(fù)債(億元)yoy0%行業(yè)動態(tài)報告/食品飲料本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告19表7：截至23Q1、23H1，白酒上市公司合同負(fù)債情況匯總(億元)端酒合同負(fù)債155.922023Q1期末13.88%環(huán)比變動-48.74%合同負(fù)債129.172023H1期末-6.90%環(huán)比變動-17.15%州茅臺83.300.10%-46.16%73.34-24.14%-11.95%糧液55.3653.48%-55.28%36.4994.46%-34.08%瀘州老窖17.26-2.11%-32.75%19.34-17.00%12.04%次高端酒63.349.46%-26.91%77.9616.54%23.07%41.727.51%-39.61%57.5318.77%37.90%舍得酒業(yè)7.97103.57%167.86%5.0917.67%-36.16%水井坊9.9818.91%-2.86%10.8626.73%8.82%鬼酒3.67-45.67%-15.32%4.48-19.47%21.96%138.10-16.00%-22.56%107.08-18.43%-22.46%洋河股份69.75-28.58%-49.24%53.23-32.70%-23.69%貢酒47.451.12%474.02%30.25-11.74%-36.24%今世緣11.430.62%-43.97%11.2910.99%-1.27%迎駕貢酒5.017.15%-24.16%5.0533.54%0.76%4.4518.11%-20.92%7.2783.47%63.16%他酒企47.7717.75%-21.90%44.617.82%-6.61%老白干酒22.096.22%48.16%18.729.77%-15.27%力特0.76-39.17%-4.85%0.56-35.46%-26.55%順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)18.3637.54%-52.50%19.420.55%5.79%金徽酒4.276.78%-16.19%4.4252.61%3.36%金種子酒1.70140.58%54.40%0.919.27%-46.49%天佑德酒0.5633.61%-4.28%0.5644.10%1.27%酒業(yè)0.03-44.49%21.63%0.02-11.82%-27.02%資料來源：同花順iFind，民生證券研究院(注：順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)除白酒業(yè)務(wù)外包含畜牧及房地產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù))本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告202投資建議我們建議選擇高端及地產(chǎn)龍頭，瀘州老窖踐行“東進(jìn)南圖”戰(zhàn)略，股權(quán)激勵加持下，仍是高端板塊營收利潤增速最快品牌；貴州茅臺是穩(wěn)健首選，五糧液估值有望修復(fù)。區(qū)域酒板塊升級趨勢仍將延續(xù)，蘇酒板塊今世緣百億目標(biāo)達(dá)成率高、洋河股份仍具估值性價比；徽酒亦保持?jǐn)U容，推薦迎駕貢酒、古井貢酒，關(guān)注口子窖、金種子酒；把握西北區(qū)域發(fā)展階段增長勢能，推薦金徽酒、伊力特；次高端白酒與外部經(jīng)濟(jì)活躍度高度關(guān)聯(lián)，站在復(fù)蘇反彈的視角關(guān)注次高端彈性，酒鬼酒。表8：白酒行業(yè)重點關(guān)注個股證券代碼證券代碼證券簡稱股價(元)2022AEPS2023E2024E2022A2023E2024E600519.SH貴州茅臺1838.0049.9359.6470.86373126推薦858.SZ糧液薦000568.SZ瀘州老窖233.577.069.0511.48332620推薦9.SH薦600702.SH舍得酒業(yè)143.35.106.017.72282419推薦304.SZ洋河股份薦000596.SZ古井貢酒284.855.958.2010.30483528推薦9.SH今世緣薦603198.SH迎駕貢酒77.092.132.683.30362923推薦9.SH薦600559.SH老白干酒24.680.780.820.99323025推薦9.SH金徽酒薦7.SH伊力特薦d行業(yè)動態(tài)報告/食品飲料本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告213風(fēng)險提示1)白酒消費場景復(fù)蘇不及預(yù)期。白酒行業(yè)需求修復(fù)受經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激政策及居民消費意愿影響較大，如相關(guān)政策出現(xiàn)變動，居民消費意愿下降，影響消費升級速度，消費分層特征將更加凸顯，可能會對企業(yè)營收、利潤產(chǎn)生影響；2)食品安全問題。白酒產(chǎn)品加工流程環(huán)節(jié)較多，若發(fā)生產(chǎn)品質(zhì)量安全問題，可能造成一定影響。本公司具備證券投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，請務(wù)必閱讀最后一頁免責(zé)聲明證券研究報告22插圖目錄圖1：23Q2白酒行業(yè)收入增速表現(xiàn)環(huán)比提升 3圖2：23Q2白酒行業(yè)利潤增速延續(xù)穩(wěn)定