新能源汽車行業(yè)新能源汽車行業(yè)11月電車銷量超預期，年末有望再創(chuàng)新高核心觀點：比亞迪持續(xù)擴大出口打造第二增長極，新勢力陸續(xù)出臺優(yōu)惠政策沖擊環(huán)比+49.5%。零跑交付0.8萬輛，同比+43.0環(huán)比+38%，主要系特斯拉本土產(chǎn)能釋放疊加年末搶裝帶動銷量回升。原材料價格波動。2022-12-12相對市場表現(xiàn)0%12/2102/2204/2206/2208/2210/22-8%-17%-25%-34%-42% 電力設備滬深300jichengwei@請注意，陳子坤并非香港證券及期貨事務監(jiān)察委員會的注冊持牌人，不可在香港從事受監(jiān)管活動。銷量超預期，關注光伏需求正反饋拐點提前到來縮報告日期合理（元/股）億緯鋰能德方納米偉明環(huán)保 5 （一）新能源汽車銷量不及預期 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 9 一、國內(nèi)整車：節(jié)前消費高峰與搶裝高峰疊加，新能源車有望迎來年末銷量新高+10.1%，同比+65.6%和+72.3%。隨著疫后物流與供應鏈的持續(xù)改善、產(chǎn)業(yè)的復工復產(chǎn)以及新能源車出口放量，4-5月因疫情遲滯的產(chǎn)能與需求在6-7月中得以持續(xù)釋5月下旬以來地方政府積極響應出臺多項促進汽車消費的配套政策，極大地活躍隨著中央疫情管控政策的寬松化與明朗化，各地防控處于簡政放權試水期，經(jīng)銷商門店閉店情況或?qū)⒚黠@減少，終端需求擴張有望長期向好。受益今年春節(jié)銷售高峰201620172018201920202021202202017 2017 萬輛和72.8萬輛，環(huán)比-1.1%和+7.9%，同比+63.5%和+70.2%量為5.8萬輛和5.8萬輛，環(huán)比+34.9%和+52.6%，同比+163.6%和20162017201820192020202120220201720182019 201620172018201992020202120229876543210201720182019 +5.3pct。乘用車滲透率35.1%，環(huán)比+4.8pct，受益12月2018201920202021202220182019202020212022-2pct。A級純電動車銷量13.7萬輛，同比+62.3%，環(huán)比+2.2%，銷售份額24%，環(huán)環(huán)比+4pct。A級車產(chǎn)品投放加速，1季度重磅新車型比亞迪本田等日系車企帶來的bz4X、e:NS1等新車型加速在華攻勢，新老車型激發(fā)想家庭智能SUVL8于11月正式開啟用戶交付。疊加前期B級新車比超15%。表1：新能源汽車各級別銷量（萬輛）及結構對比銷量（萬輛）比比動A00A0ABCABC新能源乘用車比比動A00A0ABCABC2018.072018.082018.092018.102018.112018.122019.012019.022019.032019.042018.072018.082018.092018.102018.112018.122019.012019.022019.032019.042019.052019.062019.072019.082019.092019.102019.112019.122020.012020.022020.032020.042020.052020.062020.072020.082020.092020.102020.112020.122021.012021.022021.032021.042021.052021.062021.072021.082021.092021.102021.112021.122022.012022.022022.032022.042022.052022.062022.072022.082022.092022.102022.11其中ATTO3于以色列熱銷2333輛，成為以色列11月單車銷售冠軍。特斯拉11月交付量突破10萬，10月底特斯拉車型全面降價疊加限時現(xiàn)車保險補貼有望刺激終端用期及新車型產(chǎn)能爬坡影響。公司組織架構改善提升效率，簡化產(chǎn)品SKU迎合用戶需創(chuàng)下單月最高交付紀錄，理想L8開啟交付后用戶滿意度超出預期。零跑11月交付貓雙十一零跑大定貢獻產(chǎn)品放量。當前受車型周期影響交付低迷，小鵬有望在年末再次沖擊月交付1萬臺實現(xiàn)困境反轉(zhuǎn)，而2023年各家新車型配100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%其他特斯拉蔚來小鵬零跑哪吒理想威馬數(shù)據(jù)來源：乘聯(lián)會、各公司官微、廣發(fā)證券發(fā)表2：車企月度銷量表現(xiàn)（萬輛）及市場份額變化類型車企2022年銷售表現(xiàn)歷年銷售表現(xiàn)市場份額本月銷量銷量本月同比同比20192020202120192020202122年新勢力特斯拉10.065.589.7%58.5%0.013.847.30.0%11.2%14.4%11.4%蔚來汽車10.730.3%31.8%2.0%3.6%2.8%1.9%小鵬汽車0.610.9-62.8%33.2%%2.2%3.0%1.9%理想汽車11.211.5%46.6%0.03.39.00.0%2.6%2.7%2.0%哪吒汽車14.450.5%142.3%7.01.0%1.3%2.1%2.5%威馬汽車0.02.9-97.0%-24.7%%1.8%1.3%0.5%零跑汽車0.810.343.0%176.8%0.04.40.0%0.9%1.3%1.8%其他0.33.8-26.0%120.6%0.414.749.80.4%11.9%15.1%0.7%新勢力合計16.2129.837.2%61.1%6.630.193.76.5%24.3%28.5%22.6%比亞迪23.0162.3154.0%221.3%22.118.359.921.9%14.8%18.2%28.3%上汽通用五菱7.652.751.9%34.3%6.017.445.25.9%14.1%13.7%9.2%上汽乘用車2.620.0112.4%34.9%7.77.816.17.6%6.4%4.9%3.5%長城汽車12.0-20.3%5.3%4.05.713.73.9%4.7%4.2%2.1%廣汽埃安2.924.191.3%128.2%3.36.012.03.3%4.8%3.6%4.2%奇瑞汽車21.1-20.2%171.2%4.8%3.5%3.0%3.7%長安汽車3.220.2397.0%206.0%3.4%2.4%2.9%3.5%吉利汽車3.528.4164.6%335.1%7.23.08.77.1%2.4%2.6%4.9%江淮汽車0.25.3-63.3%61.8%3.7%0.5%1.3%0.9%其他4.944.347.1%125.9%24.1%5.8%5.6%7.7%自主合計50.3390.595.6%129.2%86.773.3197.585.7%59.4%60.0%68.0%合資華晨寶馬5.5123.6%30.0%3.0%2.4%2.1%1.0%一汽大眾0.89.5-21.8%65.5%0.4%2.8%2.1%1.7%上汽大眾9.0-20.1%84.0%3.9%2.5%1.7%1.6%東風易捷特8.891.5%122.7%0.3%0.5%1.5%1.5%上汽通用0.64.475.1%110.4%%1.4%0.8%0.8%東風本田0.22.5-29.4%37.1%%0.6%0.6%0.4%東風日產(chǎn)0.33.827.9%245.0%1.3%0.9%0.4%0.7%廣汽豐田0.10.5127.7%-48.6%1.0%1.0%0.3%0.1%一汽豐田0.20.871.0%-22.0%%0.7%0.3%0.1%北京奔馳0.33.714.4%233.9%0.0%0.3%0.2%0.6%其他0.45.4-19.1%98.4%3.0%3.2%1.4%0.9%合資合計6.354.019.7%81.6%14.520.138.014.3%16.3%11.6%9.4%表3：重點車型月度銷量對比（輛）000061表4：國內(nèi)新能源乘用車月度銷量排行（輛）車型銷量車型銷量AionS2648源AionS2957新能源蔚來車型銷量車型銷量Velite6AionS4071AionS4548蔚來AionS4630車型銷量車型銷量宏光宏光宏光AionS2724蔚來車型銷量車型銷量宏光宏光秦ModelY405秦豚其他252302車型銷量車型銷量宏光宋DM20722豚淋AionS淋其他2609122車型銷量車型銷量銷量宏光豚豚豚豹其他423458平價技術全面落地銷量繼續(xù)引領全球。作為平價技術的磷酸鐵鋰體系已全面覆蓋 表5：全球新能源汽車銷量及動力電池裝機量預測全球乘用車（萬輛）YOY43.1%41.4%YOY422.0YOY48.4%474.9YOY46.1%43.8%其他地區(qū)乘用車（萬輛）42.4YOY40.6%41.2%46.5全球新能源汽車（萬輛）YOY41.2%43.1%4.2%40.6%全球乘用車需求量（GWh）45.345.0全球動力電池需求量（GWh）42.1YOY44.1%43.5%全球平均單車帶電量（kWh）42.643.149.547.246.0法案落地開啟電動車大周期輛，同比+23%，環(huán)比+24%；純電占比62%，同比+2pct，環(huán)比+450 201920202021 963020192020202120192019202020219630歐洲11月新能源汽車銷量創(chuàng)月度新高，環(huán)比強勁增長系特斯拉本土產(chǎn)能釋放疊加中國出口帶動銷量回升。此外，德國、挪威、瑞典和Stellantis/名爵/奧迪本月注冊量分別同比+301%/+12其中ModelY交付5753輛，同比+167%。福特/大眾/Mini2021/1/12021/2/12021/3/12021/4/12021/5/12021/6/12021/7/12021/8/12021/9/12021/10/22021/11/32021/12/42022/1/12022/2/22022/3/12022/4/12022/5/12022/6/12022/7/12022/8/12021/1/12021/2/12021/3/12021/4/12021/5/12021/6/12021/7/12021/8/12021/9/12021/10/22021/11/32021/12/42022/1/12022/2/22022/3/12022/4/12022/5/12022/6/12022/7/12022/8/12022/9/12022/10/12022/11/102021/1/12021/2/12021/3/12021/1/12021/2/12021/3/12021/4/12021/5/12021/6/12021/7/12021/8/12021/9/12021/10/12021/11/12021/12/12022/1/12022/2/12022/3/12022/4/12022/5/12022/6/12022/7/12022/8/12022/9/12022/10/12022/11/1圖17：2019-2022年歐洲八國純電動車銷量占整體新能源市法國英國德國意大利挪威瑞典葡萄牙西班牙歐洲八國純電動車銷量占比2019/1/12019/2/12019/3/12019/4/12019/5/12019/6/12019/7/12019/8/12019/9/12019/10/12019/11/12019/12/12020/1/12020/2/12020/3/12020/4/12020/5/12020/6/12020/7/12020/8/12020/9/12020/10/12020/11/12020/12/12021/1/12021/2/12021/3/12021/4/12021/5/12021/6/12021/7/12021/8/12021/9/12021/10/12021/11/12021/12/12022/1/12022/2/12022/3/12022/4/12022/5/12022/6/12022/7/12022/8/12022/9/12022/10/12022/11/14.7萬歐元車型，個人補貼從6000歐元增加至7000歐元，企業(yè)補貼從4000歐元增加貼增加至4500/3000歐元；對于報廢車輛，收入超過3萬歐元人群BEV/PHE表6：歐洲八國最新電動車補貼政策（更新至2022.11.9）單車補貼（歐元）權限的僅為個人。元然終止電動汽車激勵措施，如果公民能夠證明購買是在截止日期之前完成的，他們將有資格在購買后長達6個月內(nèi)獲得獎碳排放＜1g/km碳排放＜50g/km2023年年底萬報廢舊車：2600報廢舊車：5500碳排放≤20g/km報廢舊車：75003000/2000歐元補貼，2023年收入低于3萬歐元個人補貼增加至4500/3000歐金的一部分將用于長期租賃公司和公司車報廢舊車：500021g/km＜碳排放<報廢舊車：6000報廢舊車：40002025年開啟的中長期碳排法考核驅(qū)動車型周期上行，補貼退坡下純電車型在德國等電車銷售基本盤。國傳統(tǒng)換牌影響，預計可平滑部分因年末搶裝及補貼退坡帶來的銷量影響。全年來864202019202020212022201920202021202286420車型：Model3/ModelY持續(xù)領跑，MustangMac能夠支撐新能源汽車生產(chǎn)的本土核心電池零部件供應鏈，法規(guī)分別于2025年及美國有自貿(mào)協(xié)定的國家或地區(qū)提取或加工，或在北美回收利用。關鍵礦物的占比在及伊朗。美國整體新能源汽車政策環(huán)境向好，中國供應鏈導入本土預期升溫。參土化生產(chǎn)要求提升，當前車企以合資模式實現(xiàn)核心電池零部件本土生產(chǎn)，如美國本土特斯拉-松下、通用-LG新能源、福特-SKOn、Stellantis-三星SDI，及加拿大Stellantis-LG新能源。隨著北美新能源汽車市場擴大及電池零部件本土生產(chǎn)要求提100000090000080000070000060000050000040000030000020000010000002019/1/12019/3/12019/5/12019/7/12019/9/12019/11/12020/1/12020/3/12020/5/12020/7/12020/9/12020/11/12019/1/12019/3/12019/5/12019/7/12019/9/12019/11/12020/1/12020/3/12020/5/12020/7/12020/9/12020/11/12021/1/12021/3/12021/5/12021/7/12021/9/12021/11/32022/1/12022/3/12022/5/12022/7/12022/9/12022/11/1同比（右軸）同比（右軸）140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%6000050000400003000020000100000ModelX銷量（輛，左軸)ModelS銷量（輛，左軸）Model3銷量（輛，左軸)5%4%3%2%0%M3/Y貢獻滲透率（右軸）特斯拉貢獻滲透率（右軸)ModelYM3/Y貢獻滲透率（右軸）特斯拉貢獻滲透率（右軸)2021/1/12021/2/12021/3/12021/4/12021/5/12021/6/12021/7/12021/8/12021/9/12021/10/22021/11/32021/12/42022/1/12022/2/22022/3/12022/4/12022/5/12022/6/12022/7/12022/8/12022/9/12022/10/12022/11/1純電動車注冊量占比同比（右軸）表7：美國新能源乘用車月度銷量排行（輛）trontronWrangler6000Wrangler3500Wrangler3500Wrangler3000Wrangler5500Wrangler2500起亞V起亞Wrangler3861Wrangler3146Wrangler2800Wrangler3000Wrangler22502018.012018.022018.032018.042018.052018.062018.072018.082018.092018.102018.012018.022018.032018.042018.052018.062018.072018.082018.092018.102018.112018.122019.012019.022019.032019.042019.052019.062019.072019.082019.092019.102019.112019.122020.012020.022020.032020.042020.052020.062020.072020.082020.092020.102020.112020.122021.012021.022021.032021.042021.052021.062021.072021.082021.092021.102021.112021.122022.012022.022022.032022.042022.052022.062022.072022.082022.092022.102022.1167.4%，同比+99.5%，環(huán)比+17100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%三元電池裝機量（MWh）磷酸鐵鋰裝機量（MWh）數(shù)據(jù)來源：高工鋰電、中國汽車動力電池產(chǎn)業(yè)創(chuàng)新聯(lián)盟、廣發(fā)證券發(fā)展研寧德時代龍頭優(yōu)勢有望持續(xù)擴大。據(jù)中國汽車動力電池產(chǎn)業(yè)創(chuàng)新聯(lián)盟，11月寧優(yōu)勢有望持續(xù)擴大；比亞迪裝機量8.94GWh，同比+118.6%，環(huán)比+15.5%，占比表8：國內(nèi)動力電池企業(yè)裝車量布局（GWh）企業(yè)名稱裝車量企業(yè)名稱裝車量