外文文獻(xiàn)翻譯譯文一、外文原文原文：RiskManagementThischapterreviewsanddiscussesthebasicissuesandprinciplesofriskmanagement,including:riskacceptability(tolerability);riskreductionandtheALARPprinciple;cautionaryandprecautionaryprinciples.Andpresentsacasestudyshowingtheimportanceoftheseissuesandprinciplesinapracticalmanagementcontext.Beforewetakeacloserlook,letusbrieflyaddresssomebasicfeaturesofriskmanagement.Thepurposeofriskmanagementistoensurethatadequatemeasuresaretakentoprotectpeople,theenvironment,andassetsfrompossibleharmfulconsequencesoftheactivitiesbeingundertaken,aswellastobalancedifferentconcerns,inparticularrisksandcosts.Riskmanagementincludesmeasuresbothtoavoidthehazardsandtoreducetheirpotentialharm.Traditionally,inindustriessuchasnuclear,oil,andgas,riskmanagementwasbasedonaprescriptiveregulatingregime,inwhichdetailedrequirementsweresetwithregardtothedesignandoperationofthearrangements.Thisregimehasgraduallybeenreplacedbyamoregoal-orientedregime,puttingemphasisonwhattoachieveratherthanonthemeansofachievingit.Riskmanagementisanintegralaspectofagoal-orientedregime.Itisacknowledgedthatriskcannotbeeliminatedbutmustbemanaged.Thereisnowadaysanenormousdriveandenthusiasminvariousindustriesandinsocietyasawholetoimplementriskmanagementinorganizations.Therearehighexpectationsthatriskmanagementistheproperframeworkthroughwhichtoachievehighlevelsofperformance.Riskmanagementinvolvesachievinganappropriatebalancebetweenrealizingopportunitiesforgainandminimizinglosses.Itisanintegralpartofgoodmanagementpracticeandanessentialelementofgoodcorporategovernance.Itisaniterativeprocessconsistingofstepsthat,whenundertakeninsequence,canleadtoacontinuousimprovementindecision-makingandfacilitateacontinuousimprovementinperformance.Tosupportdecision-makingregardingdesignandoperation,riskanalysesarecarriedout.Theyincludetheidentificationofhazardsandthreats,causeanalyses,consequenceanalyses,andriskdescriptions.Theresultsarethenevaluated.Thetotalityoftheanalysesandtheevaluationsarereferredtoasriskassessments.Riskassessmentisfollowedbyrisktreatment,whichisaprocessinvolvingthedevelopmentandimplementationofmeasurestomodifytherisk,includingmeasuresdesignedtoavoid,reduce(“optimize”),transfer,orretaintherisk.Risktransfermeanssharingwithanotherpartythebenefitorlossassociatedwitharisk.Itistypicallyaffectedthroughinsurance.Riskmanagementcoversallcoordinatedactivitiesinthedirectionandcontrolofanorganizationwithregardtorisk.Inmanyenterprises,theriskmanagementtasksaredividedintothreemaincategories:strategicrisk,financialrisk,andoperationalrisk.Strategicriskincludesaspectsandfactorsthatareimportantfortheenterprise’slong-termstrategyandplans,forexamplemergersandacquisitions,technology,competition,politicalconditions,legislationandregulations,andlabormarket.Financialriskincludestheenterprise’sfinancialsituation,andincludes:Marketrisk,associatedwiththecostsofgoodsandservices,foreignexchangeratesandsecurities(shares,bonds,etc.).Creditrisk,associatedwithadebtor’sfailuretomeetitsobligationsinaccordancewithagreedterms.Liquidityrisk,reflectinglackofaccesstocash;thedifficultyofsellinganassetinatimelymanner.Operationalriskisrelatedtoconditionsaffectingthenormaloperatingsituation:Accidentalevents,includingfailuresanddefects,qualitydeviations,naturaldisasters.Intendedacts;sabotage,disgruntledemployees,etc.Lossofcompetence,keypersonnel.Legalcircumstances,associatedforinstance,withdefectivecontractsandliabilityinsurance.Foranenterprisetobecomesuccessfulinitsimplementationofriskmanagement,topmanagementneedstobeinvolved,andactivitiesmustbeputintoeffectonmanylevels.Someimportantpointstoensuresuccessare:theestablishmentofastrategyforriskmanagement,i.e.,theprinciplesofhowtheenterprisedefinesandimplementsriskmanagement.Shouldonesimplyfollowtheregulatoryrequirements(minimalrequirements),orshouldonebethe“bestintheclass”?Theestablishmentofariskmanagementprocessfortheenterprise,i.e.formalprocessesandroutinesthattheenterpriseistofollow.Theestablishmentofmanagementstructures,withrolesandresponsibilities,suchthattheriskanalysisprocessbecomesintegratedintotheorganization.Theimplementationofanalysesandsupportsystems,suchasriskanalysistools,recordingsystemsforoccurrencesofvarioustypesofevents,etc.Thecommunication,training,anddevelopmentofariskmanagementculture,sothatthecompetence,understanding,andmotivationlevelwithintheorganizationisenhanced.Giventheabovefundamentalsofriskmanagement,thenextstepistodevelopprinciplesandamethodologythatcanbeusedinpracticaldecision-making.Thisisnot,however,straightforward.Thereareanumberofchallengesandhereweaddresssomeofthese:establishinganinformativeriskpictureforthevariousdecisionalternatives,usingthisriskpictureinadecision-makingcontext.Establishinganinformativeriskpicturemeansidentifyingappropriateriskindicesandassessmentsofuncertainties.Usingtheriskpictureinadecisionmakingcontextmeansthedefinitionandapplicationofriskacceptancecriteria,costbenefitanalysesandtheALARPprinciple,whichstatesthatriskshouldbereducedtoalevelwhichisaslowasisreasonablypracticable.Itiscommontodefineanddescriberisksintermsofprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues.Thishas,however,beenchallenged,sincetheprobabilitiesandexpectedvaluescancamouflageuncertainties;theassignedprobabilitiesareconditionalonanumberofassumptionsandsuppositions,andtheydependonthebackgroundknowledge.Uncertaintiesareoftenhiddeninthisbackgroundknowledge,andrestrictingattentiontotheassignedprobabilitiescancamouflagefactorsthatcouldproducesurprisingoutcomes.Byjumpingdirectlyintoprobabilities,importantuncertaintyaspectsareeasilytruncated,andpotentialsurprisesmaybeleftunconsidered.Letus,asanexample,considertherisks,seenthroughtheeyesofariskanalystinthe1970s,associatedwithfuturehealthproblemsfordiversworkingonoffshorepetroleumprojects.Theanalystassignsavaluetotheprobabilitythatadiverwouldexperiencehealthproblems(properlydefined)duringthecoming30yearsduetothedivingactivities.Letusassumethatavalueof1%wasassigned,anumberbasedontheknowledgeavailableatthattime.Therearenostrongindicationsthatthediverswillexperiencehealthproblems,butweknowtodaythattheseprobabilitiesledtopoorpredictions.Manydivershaveexperiencedseverehealthproblems(AvonandVine,).Byrestrictingrisktotheprobabilityassignmentsalone,importantaspectsofuncertaintyandriskarehidden.Thereisalackofunderstandingabouttheunderlyingphenomena,buttheprobabilityassignmentsalonearenotabletofullydescribethisstatus.Severalriskperspectivesanddefinitionshavebeenproposedinlinewiththisrealization.Forexample,Avon(a,a)definesriskasthetwo-dimensionalcombinationofevents/consequencesandassociateduncertainties(willtheeventsoccur,whattheconsequenceswillbe).AcloselyrelatedperspectiveissuggestedbyAvonandRenan(a),whodefineriskassociatedwithanactivityasuncertaintyaboutandseverityoftheconsequencesoftheactivity,whereseverityreferstointensity,size,extension,scopeandotherpotentialmeasuresofmagnitudewithrespecttosomethingthathumansvalue(lives,theenvironment,money,etc.).Lossesandgains,expressedforexampleinmonetarytermsorasthenumberoffatalities,arewaysofdefiningtheseverityoftheconsequences.SeealsoAvonandChristensen().Inthecaseoflargeuncertainties,riskassessmentscansupportdecision-making,butotherprinciples,measures,andinstrumentsarealsorequired,suchasthecautionary/precautionaryprinciplesaswellasrobustnessandresiliencestrategies.Aninformativedecisionbasisisneeded,butitshouldbefarmorenuancedthancanbeobtainedbyaprobabilisticanalysisalone.Thishasbeenstressedbymanyresearchers,e.g.Apostolicism(1990)andApostolicismandLemon():qualitativeriskanalysis(QRA)resultsareneverthesolebasisfordecision-making.Safety-andsecurity-relateddecision-makingisrisk-informed,notrisk-based.Thisconclusionisnot,however,justifiedmerelybyreferringtotheneedforaddressinguncertaintiesbeyondprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues.Themainissuehereisthefactthatrisksneedtobebalancedwithotherconcerns.Whenvarioussolutionsandmeasuresaretobecomparedandadecisionistobemade,theanalysisandassessmentsthathavebeenconductedprovideabasisforsuchadecision.Inmanycases,establisheddesignprinciplesandstandardsprovideclearguidance.Compliancewithsuchprinciplesandstandardsmustbeamongthefirstreferencepointswhenassessingrisks.Itiscommonthinkingthatriskmanagementprocesses,andespeciallyALARPprocesses,requireformalguidelinesorcriteria(e.g.,riskacceptancecriteriaandcost-effectivenessindices)tosimplifythedecision-making.Caremust;however,beshownwhenusingthistypeofformaldecision-makingcriteria,astheyeasilyresultinamechanizationofthedecision-makingprocess.Suchmechanizationisunfortunatebecause:Decision-makingcriteriabasedonrisk-relatednumbersalone(probabilitiesandexpectedvalues)donotcapturealltheaspectsofrisk,costs,andbenefits,nomethodhasaprecisionthatjustifiesamechanicaldecisionbasedonwhethertheresultisoverorbelowanumericalcriterion.Itisamanagerialresponsibilitytomakedecisionsunderuncertainty,andmanagementshouldbeawareoftherelevantrisksanduncertainties.ApostolicismandLemon()adoptapragmaticapproachtoriskanalysisandriskmanagement,acknowledgingthedifficultiesofdeterminingtheprobabilitiesofanattack.Ideally,theywouldliketoimplementarisk-informedprocedure,basedonexpectedvalues.However,sincesuchanapproachwouldrequiretheuseofprobabilitiesthathavenotbeen“rigorouslyderived”,theyseethemselvesforcedtoresorttoamorepragmaticapproach.Thisisonepossibleapproachwhenfacingproblemsoflargeuncertainties.Theriskanalysessimplydonotprovideasufficientlysolidbasisforthedecision-makingprocess.Wearguealongthesamelines.Thereisaneedforamanagementreviewandjudgmentprocess.Itisnecessarytoseebeyondthecomputedriskpictureintheformoftheprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues.Traditionalquantitativeriskanalysesfailinthisrespect.Weacknowledgetheneedforanalyzingrisk,butquestionthevalueaddedbyperformingtraditionalquantitativeriskanalysesinthecaseoflargeuncertainties.Thearbitrarinessinthenumbersproducedcanbesignificant,duetotheuncertaintiesintheestimatesorasaresultoftheuncertaintyassessmentsbeingstronglydependentontheanalysts.Itshouldbeacknowledgedthatriskcannotbeaccuratelyexpressedusingprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues.Aquantitativeriskanalysisisinmanycasesbetterreplacedbyamorequalitativeapproach,asshownintheexamplesabove;anapproachwhichmaybereferredtoasasemi-quantitativeapproach.Quantifyingriskusingriskindicessuchastheexpectednumberoffatalitiesgivesanimpressionthatriskcanbeexpressedinaverypreciseway.However,inmostcases,thearbitrarinessislarge.Inasemi-quantitativeapproachthisisacknowledgedbyprovidingamorenuancedriskpicture,whichincludesfactorsthatcancause“surprises”relativetotheprobabilitiesandtheexpectedvalues.Quantificationoftenrequiresstrongsimplificationsandassumptionsand,asaresult,importantfactorscouldbeignoredorgiventoolittle(ortoomuch)weight.Inaqualitativeorsemi-quantitativeanalysis,amorecomprehensiveriskpicturecanbeestablished,takingintoaccountunderlyingfactorsinfluencingrisk.Incontrasttotheprevailinguseofquantitativeriskanalyses,theprecisionleveloftheriskdescriptionisinlinewiththeaccuracyoftheriskanalysistools.Inaddition,riskquantificationisveryresourcedemanding.Oneneedstoaskwhethertheresourcesareusedinthebestway.Weconcludethatinmanycasesmoreisgainedbyopeningupthewaytoabroader,morequalitativeapproach,whichallowsforconsiderationsbeyondtheprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues.Thetraditionalquantitativeriskassessmentsasseenforexampleinthenuclearandtheoil&gasindustriesprovidearathernarrowriskpicture,throughcalculatedprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues,andweconcludethatthisapproachshouldbeusedwithcareforproblemswithlargeuncertainties.Alternativeapproacheshighlightingthequalitativeaspectsaremoreappropriateinsuchcases.Abroadriskdescriptionisrequired.Thisisalsothecaseinthenormativeambiguitysituations,astheriskcharacterizationsprovideabasisfortheriskevaluationprocesses.Themainconcernisthevaluejudgments,buttheyshouldbesupportedbysolidscientificassessments,showingabroadriskpicture.Ifonetriestodemonstratethatitisrationaltoacceptrisk,onascientificbasis,toonarrowanapproachtoriskhasbeenadopted.Recognizinguncertaintyasamaincomponentofriskisessentialtosuccessfullyimplementriskmanagement,forcasesoflargeuncertaintiesandnormativeambiguity.Ariskdescriptionshouldcovercomputedprobabilitiesandexpectedvalues,aswellas:Sensitivitiesshowinghowtheriskindicesdependonthebackgroundknowledge(assumptionsandsuppositions);Uncertaintyassessments;Descriptionofthebackgroundknowledge,includingmodelsanddataused.Theuncertaintyassessmentsshouldnotberestrictedtostandardprobabilisticanalysis,asthisanalysiscouldhideimportantuncertaintyfactors.Thesearchforquantitative,explicitapproachesforexpressingtheuncertainties,evenbeyondthesubjectiveprobabilities,mayseemtobeapossiblewayforward.However,suchanapproachisnotrecommended.Tryingtobepreciseandtoaccuratelyexpresswhatisextremelyuncertaindoesnotmakesense.Insteadwerecommendamoreopenqualitativeapproachtorevealsuchuncertainties.Somemightconsiderthistobelessattractivefromamethodologicalandscientificpointofview.Perhapsitis,butitwouldbemoresuitedforsolvingtheproblemathand,whichisabouttheanalysisandmanagementofriskanduncertainties.Source:TerjeAven..“RiskManagement”.RiskinTechnologicalSystems,Oct,p175-198.二、翻譯文章譯文：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理本章回想和討論風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的基本問題和原則，涉及：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可接受性（耐受性）、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)削減和安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理原則、警示和防止原則，并提出了一種研究案例，闡明在實(shí)際管理環(huán)境中這些問題和原則的重要性。這需要我們的進(jìn)一步研究，在此之前，讓我們簡樸談?wù)勶L(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的某些基本特性。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的目的是：在現(xiàn)時(shí)事件產(chǎn)生有害后果時(shí)，及時(shí)采用適宜的方法以確保人類，環(huán)境和資產(chǎn)的安全，以及平衡人們的不同關(guān)注取向，特別是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和成本。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理涉及兩種方法，控制危險(xiǎn)源和減少潛在的危害。傳統(tǒng)上，諸如核能，石油和天然氣產(chǎn)業(yè)，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理重要是依靠規(guī)范監(jiān)管制度來管理的，這項(xiàng)制度對(duì)設(shè)計(jì)和操作的安排提出了系統(tǒng)性的規(guī)定。但是漸漸的，這一制度已被一項(xiàng)更加原則化的制度所取代，此制度是強(qiáng)調(diào)要獲得的成果而不是如何實(shí)現(xiàn)這些成果的手段。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是原則化制度的一種構(gòu)成部分。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)不能消除，只能加以控制改善，這是被人們所公認(rèn)的?，F(xiàn)在有一項(xiàng)含有巨大驅(qū)動(dòng)力和感召力的方法正應(yīng)運(yùn)而生，它將不同產(chǎn)業(yè)和社會(huì)作為一種整體來實(shí)施組織風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是一項(xiàng)適宜的方法，人們對(duì)于用它來實(shí)現(xiàn)高產(chǎn)值有很大的盼望。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理涉及可認(rèn)識(shí)到的實(shí)現(xiàn)增益的機(jī)會(huì)和損失的最小化，并且在它們之間實(shí)現(xiàn)適宜的平衡。這是一種組織構(gòu)成良好有效的管理實(shí)踐的基本要素。這是一種由遞進(jìn)環(huán)節(jié)構(gòu)成的重復(fù)的過程，按次序進(jìn)行時(shí)，能不停提高決策對(duì)的性并且增進(jìn)產(chǎn)值的不停增加。為了支持決策方面的設(shè)計(jì)和操作，需要進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析。它們涉及危害物和威脅識(shí)別，成因分析，成果分析和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)描述鑒定，然后評(píng)定成果。全部的分析和評(píng)定將被作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)定。另首先是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)定的解決方法，這是一種過程，涉及開發(fā)和實(shí)施方法來緩和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，方法涉及避免，減少（“優(yōu)化”），轉(zhuǎn)移或保存風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移意味著與另一方共同享有利益或承當(dāng)由于損失造成的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。它最典型的是受保險(xiǎn)的影響。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理涵蓋了全部協(xié)調(diào)活動(dòng)的方向目的和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)組織。在許多公司中，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的任務(wù)分為三大類：戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和經(jīng)營風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。戰(zhàn)略風(fēng)險(xiǎn)涉及對(duì)于公司的長久戰(zhàn)略和計(jì)劃起重要作用的方面和因素，例如兼并和收購，技術(shù)，競爭，政治環(huán)境，法律和法規(guī)，以及勞工市場。財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)涉及影響公司財(cái)務(wù)狀況的因素，涉及：市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，商品和服務(wù)，外匯匯率和證券的有關(guān)成本（股票，債權(quán)等）；信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，與債務(wù)人沒有按照其商定的有關(guān)條款推行義務(wù)；流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，反映現(xiàn)金缺少時(shí)，及時(shí)出售資產(chǎn)的困難。操作風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是有關(guān)條件影響正常工作的狀況：意外的事件，涉及故障和缺點(diǎn)，質(zhì)量差，自然災(zāi)害；預(yù)期行為，破壞，心懷不滿的雇員等；喪失競爭力，核心人員；與法律環(huán)境下有關(guān)的，例如有缺點(diǎn)合同及責(zé)任保險(xiǎn)。一種公司要成功實(shí)施風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理，需要高層管理人員參加，活動(dòng)必須貫徹在許多層面上。確保成功的要點(diǎn)是一種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理戰(zhàn)略確實(shí)立，例如公司如何定義和實(shí)施風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的原則。難道僅僅只需遵照監(jiān)管規(guī)定（最低規(guī)定），或追求“成為最佳的”？公司風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理過程的建立，涉及公司貫徹的正式流程和常規(guī)。建立管理構(gòu)造，涉及角色和責(zé)任分派，這樣，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析過程和組織融為一體。分析和支持系統(tǒng)的實(shí)施，如風(fēng)險(xiǎn)工具分析，執(zhí)行，統(tǒng)計(jì)系統(tǒng)多個(gè)類型的事件的發(fā)生等。溝通，培訓(xùn)和發(fā)展風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理文化，這樣，組織的能力，理解和動(dòng)機(jī)水平得到增強(qiáng)。實(shí)施了上述風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的基礎(chǔ)原則后，下一步是制訂可用于實(shí)際決策中的原則和辦法。然而，這并不是那么簡樸，尚有一系列的挑戰(zhàn)，在這里我們列舉其中某些：為不同的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)選擇建立一種豐富的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)信息平臺(tái)，將其運(yùn)用到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策環(huán)境中。這意味著對(duì)的認(rèn)識(shí)不擬定因素的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)定。在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策方面則意味著接受風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的定義和準(zhǔn)則，成本效益分析和安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理原則，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)當(dāng)減少到實(shí)際合理的最低水平。定義和描述有關(guān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概率和預(yù)期性價(jià)值是常見的現(xiàn)象。然而，這受到了挑戰(zhàn)，由于概率和預(yù)期值的不擬定性是隱蔽的。概率的分派都是有條件的基于數(shù)量的簡樸假設(shè)和推測，他們根據(jù)的是背景知識(shí)。不擬定性往往是隱藏在這個(gè)背景知識(shí)背面，注意限制性是由于給定的概率而產(chǎn)生的，這些因素的隱蔽性可能產(chǎn)生令人驚訝的成果。直接考慮到了重要的不擬定性因素容易被阻隔的可能性，而潛在的驚喜可能會(huì)是你不曾考慮到的。讓我們舉一種例子，通過20世紀(jì)70年代風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析師分析海上石油項(xiàng)目工作的有關(guān)潛水員將來健康的問題來考慮風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。該分析師對(duì)潛水員在將來30年中將經(jīng)歷的由于潛水活動(dòng)而產(chǎn)生的健康問題（對(duì)的的定義）分派一種價(jià)值概率。讓我們假設(shè)1%的價(jià)值被分派，以當(dāng)時(shí)的知識(shí)為基礎(chǔ)是適宜的。沒有強(qiáng)烈的跡象表明潛水員會(huì)碰到健康問題，但在今天我們懂得這些概率造成了較少的預(yù)測。許多潛水員們已出現(xiàn)了嚴(yán)重的健康問題（Avon和Vine，）。通過限制單獨(dú)作業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的概率，不擬定性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重要方面被隱藏了。由于對(duì)深層次的現(xiàn)象缺少理解，單獨(dú)作業(yè)的概率不能充足描述這種狀態(tài)。某些危險(xiǎn)的觀點(diǎn)和定義已被提出并且已被證明符合這個(gè)現(xiàn)實(shí)。例如，Avon（a，a）把風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定義為事件/后果和有關(guān)不擬定性的二維組合（將發(fā)生的事件，后果將是什么）。Avon和Renan（a）建議從一種親密有關(guān)的角度將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)定義為有關(guān)不擬定性活動(dòng)及其產(chǎn)生的嚴(yán)重后果，其嚴(yán)重性是指強(qiáng)度，大小，擴(kuò)展，范疇和其它潛在的有關(guān)人類價(jià)值（生活，環(huán)境，金錢等）的大小方法。損失和收益，例如以貨幣形