證券研究報(bào)告策略周報(bào)——估值及景氣跟蹤2月第3期本報(bào)告由中信建投證券股份有限公司在中華人民共和國(guó)（僅為本報(bào)告目的，不包括香港、澳門、臺(tái)灣）提供。在遵守適用的法律法規(guī)情況下，本報(bào)告亦可能由中信建投（國(guó)際）證券有限公司在香港提供。請(qǐng)務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的免責(zé)條款和聲明。本周市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)/景氣/估值要點(diǎn)概覽核心觀點(diǎn)：市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)層面，小盤股大幅反彈，寬基指數(shù)中中景氣層面，節(jié)后生產(chǎn)高頻數(shù)據(jù)低于歷年顯示復(fù)工偏慢；LPR下調(diào)幅度超預(yù)期將帶動(dòng)房貸利率進(jìn)一步下行；春節(jié)假期影響下汽車銷量有所回落，開年價(jià)格戰(zhàn)再起；節(jié)后光伏產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈價(jià)格維穩(wěn)，3月組件排產(chǎn)上行。估值及交易熱度層面，TMT估值及情緒明顯修復(fù)。>市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)：本周(2.18-2.23)高市盈率、小盤、科技風(fēng)格表現(xiàn)居前；低市盈率、大盤、消費(fèi)風(fēng)格表現(xiàn)相對(duì)靠后。主要股指中，中證2000、萬(wàn)得全A、紅利指數(shù)表現(xiàn)居前；中證500、科創(chuàng)50、創(chuàng)業(yè)板指表現(xiàn)靠后。申萬(wàn)一級(jí)行業(yè)中，傳媒/計(jì)算機(jī)/通信漲幅居前，醫(yī)藥生物/農(nóng)林牧漁/家用電器漲幅居后。熱門概念中，AIGC表現(xiàn)亮眼。>盈利預(yù)測(cè)變動(dòng)：2月絕大多數(shù)行業(yè)24年Wind盈利一致預(yù)期下調(diào)，下調(diào)幅度靠前的行業(yè)為農(nóng)林牧漁、國(guó)防軍工、非銀金融。數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈細(xì)分方面，以Wind一致預(yù)期看，24年盈利預(yù)期排序：光學(xué)元件（85%）>半導(dǎo)體封測(cè)（74%光模塊（72%）>網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全（61%SAAS（57%）=數(shù)據(jù)安全（57%）>數(shù)字政府（46%）=半導(dǎo)體材料（46%）。>行業(yè)景氣核心指標(biāo)變動(dòng)：1）價(jià)格下行：水泥、布油、銅/鋁、螺紋鋼、玻璃等；價(jià)格上行：動(dòng)力煤、焦煤/焦炭等；2）大金融：地產(chǎn)方面，LPR下調(diào)幅度超預(yù)期將帶動(dòng)房貸利率進(jìn)一步下行。本周5年期LPR下調(diào)25bp，幅度超預(yù)期，將帶動(dòng)房貸利率進(jìn)一步下行，有益成交企穩(wěn)改善，據(jù)貝殼統(tǒng)計(jì)，截至2024年1月，百城首套二套房貸利率平均為3.84%、4.41%，相距下限分別有9、26個(gè)bp的下降空間。銀行方面，5年期LPR下調(diào)幅度超預(yù)期，1月社融超預(yù)期；3）高端制造：汽車方面，春節(jié)假期影響下汽車銷量有所回落，開年價(jià)格戰(zhàn)再起。據(jù)乘聯(lián)會(huì)，2月1-17日，乘用車市場(chǎng)零售55.9萬(wàn)輛，同比去年同期下降14%，較上月同期下降43%；新能源車市場(chǎng)零售16.5萬(wàn)輛，同比去年同期下降15%，較上月同期下降44%。光伏方面，節(jié)后產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈價(jià)格維穩(wěn)，3月組件排產(chǎn)上行。4）消費(fèi)：必選方面，節(jié)后淡季豬價(jià)大幅回落?？蛇x方面，春節(jié)動(dòng)銷良好，結(jié)構(gòu)延續(xù)分化。>估值水平及交易熱度：主要寬基指數(shù)股權(quán)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)近期快速下行但仍位于7年90%分位上方；全A/全A非金融兩油/上證指數(shù)估值分別處于5年6.6%/7.0%/34.8%分位數(shù)附近；創(chuàng)業(yè)板指/寧組合分別處于市盈率5年1.2%/0.8%分位數(shù)附近。交易熱度方面，TMT估值及情緒明顯修復(fù)。全球估值水平方面，當(dāng)前納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)估值已超過(guò)2022年年初水平。風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示：數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計(jì)存在誤差、海內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退、市場(chǎng)流動(dòng)性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。0000000000A0汽車電子銀行煤炭通信傳媒漁業(yè)IT服務(wù)Ⅱ育0w11w13w15w17w19w21w23w25w27w29w31w33w35w37w39w41w43w45w47w49w510002022-122023-032023-062052中4中6中8中0000圖：目前整體工業(yè)企業(yè)處于被動(dòng)去庫(kù)末期，主動(dòng)補(bǔ)庫(kù)初期階段工業(yè)企業(yè):產(chǎn)成品存貨:同比（%）工業(yè)企5股指PE(TTM)：寬基指數(shù)大部分位于PE(TTM)PE(TTM)10年分位科創(chuàng)50-4.0%-3.5%-3.0%近四周24年盈利預(yù)測(cè)變動(dòng)(%)科創(chuàng)50 543210543210滬深300隱含風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)(%)7年10%-90%區(qū)間7年萬(wàn)得全A隱含風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)(%)7年10%-90%區(qū)間7年均值876543210注：隱含風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)=1/指數(shù)市盈率-中債10年321032103210注：隱含風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)=1/指數(shù)市盈率-中債10年987658PB(LFROE987658PB(LFROE(TT23Q3指5000圖：主要指數(shù)PE-G(注：藍(lán)色空心圓代表上一月盈利預(yù)期所在位置)圖：主要指數(shù)PB-ROE數(shù)數(shù)萬(wàn)萬(wàn)指指合合AA數(shù)數(shù))中觀核心指標(biāo)變動(dòng).周期動(dòng)力煤更新時(shí)間2024/2/232024/2/212024/2/232024/2/292023/12/312023/12/312024/2/192024/2/162023/12/312023/11/30更新時(shí)間2024/2/232024/2/232023/12/312023/12/312024/2/232024/2/23指標(biāo)頻率數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比同比趨勢(shì)價(jià)格秦皇島動(dòng)力末煤（Q5500）環(huán)渤海動(dòng)力煤紐卡斯?fàn)柆F(xiàn)貨價(jià)動(dòng)力煤長(zhǎng)協(xié)價(jià)日周周月940.0730.0116.1708.0元/噸元/噸美元/噸元/噸2.1%0.3%-4.9%-0.3%-20%0%-26%-3%量原煤產(chǎn)量當(dāng)月同比進(jìn)口量當(dāng)月同比月月53.0%%-1.018.4- 庫(kù)存CCTD主流港口庫(kù)存周5280.6萬(wàn)噸-0.8%-15%樣本區(qū)域電廠日耗周248.4萬(wàn)噸-4.2%需求當(dāng)月發(fā)電量月8289.76億千瓦時(shí)13.4%9%消費(fèi)量：動(dòng)力煤：電力月21382.0萬(wàn)噸9.0%8%指標(biāo)焦煤頻率數(shù)值單位周/月環(huán)比同比趨勢(shì)價(jià)格國(guó)內(nèi)期貨價(jià)港口現(xiàn)貨價(jià)日日1779.51672.0元/噸元/噸3.1%0.0%-10%-23%量原煤產(chǎn)量當(dāng)月同比進(jìn)口量當(dāng)月同比月月53.0%%-1.018.4 - 庫(kù)存六港口合計(jì)焦化廠可用天數(shù)周219.93天6.6%-2.058%圖：地產(chǎn)板塊核心景氣跟蹤指標(biāo)圖：社融/M2/GDP同比情況502017-032018-032019-032去年同期下降14%，較上月同期下降43%；新能源車市場(chǎng)零售16.5萬(wàn)輛，同比去年同期下降144%。2月19日比亞迪宣布秦PLUS榮耀版正式上市，價(jià)格“殺”入7萬(wàn)元區(qū)間，最低售價(jià)只有7.98萬(wàn)元。多款主力車型全系降價(jià)，其中哪吒X全系降價(jià)22000元。長(zhǎng)安汽車宣布長(zhǎng)安啟源A05最低7.39萬(wàn)元起，降價(jià)1.1行業(yè)近一周24年盈利預(yù)測(cè)整體)3年分位5年分位10年分位中位數(shù))3年分位5年分位10年分位五日成交額占比五年分位數(shù)近一周年分位近一周家用電器食品飲料美容護(hù)理紡織服飾醫(yī)藥生物輕工制造社會(huì)服務(wù)農(nóng)林牧漁商貿(mào)零售8.2%20.00.6%0.4%0.6%2.36.7%65.9%-0.1%78.2%-0.3124.75.9%3.5%28.20.6%0.4%5.26.5%4.3%41.8%26.9%-0.5%40.7%-0.4129.54.3%30.74.5%3.5%4.1%24.6%56.2%-0.1%40.2%-0.5521.329.4%21.325.0%8.2%2.4%2.3%-0.1%-0.4725.233.7%20.2%28.42.6%2.0%3.3%2.52.1%0.6%43.1%-1.5%62.7%-0.5925.539.8%51.1%34.7%24.12.6%0.8%6.5%6.5%31.1%76.3%-0.5044.524.9%31.6%29.72.50.5%-0.1946.445.3%60.0%56.7%32.72.0%4.9%2.52.3%4.8%-0.3%25.3%-0.6226.524.9%46.9%38.0%26.925.6%38.4%31.3%26.1%36.4%21.8%64.8%-0.1%77.7%-0.38制造機(jī)械設(shè)備國(guó)防軍工電力設(shè)備0.17%23.32.6%26.3%50.7%27.50.6%2.04.7%34.7%27.2%76.2%75.3%-0.2926.022.5%20.2%31.84.3%3.3%2.03.6%-0.3743.92.5%0.7%44.50.6%0.4%0.2%2.52.3%47.8%-0.2%44.9%-0.390.5%26.20.6%0.4%0.2%2.146.0%-0.9%42.3%-0.53周期石油石化煤炭基礎(chǔ)化工有色金屬建筑材料鋼鐵79.0%71.7%40.5%23.89.0%9.8%4.9%27.7%26.1%73.2%-0.1%68.0%-0.1180.6%81.1%47.0%76.3%72.2%38.9%81.7%89.0%81.5%62.5%-0.1356.9%48.7%29.8%26.437.2%22.7%2.2%2.2%-0.5%57.3%-0.5230.9%9.2%24.10.6%3.7%9.4%8.4%-0.4%31.7%-0.4372.1%80.6%47.8%23.566.7%64.7%35.7%2.0%0.6%-0.1%79.5%-0.5621.477.9%86.7%56.5%55.1%67.5%46.5%0.95.0%31.6%-0.2%44.4%-0.43科技通信傳媒計(jì)算機(jī)28.827.1%8.1%52.165.4%52.9%34.5%2.145.5%27.8%78.8%-0.0135.665.9%52.0%37.8%35.459.6%48.2%33.0%2.238.3%35.0%22.8%54.549.7%38.7%40.1%51.557.1%41.2%27.5%2.94.3%5.5%76.4%80.0%-0.0140.162.0%52.9%37.5%46.278.8%69.4%43.0%2.32.3%3.1%59.8%54.3%-0.27金融地產(chǎn)建筑裝飾銀行房地產(chǎn)非銀金融0.11%8.928.2%9.8%22.028.2%37.3%29.9%0.84.5%2.3%79.5%77.7%-0.315.047.7%28.6%21.7%5.238.5%23.5%0.531.4%9.4%-0.5%-0.1149.9%69.7%45.9%41.7%54.1%33.0%0.72.3%0.7%35.5%-0.3370.5%48.6%36.1%25.595.5%61.2%50.8%6.2%3.1%54.2%74.1%-0.14公用交通運(yùn)輸公用事業(yè)環(huán)保0.05%70.1%42.1%24.2%0.6%0.4%0.2%8.6%64.6%-0.4%69.1%-0.2824.5%31.2%26.4%0.6%0.4%0.2%20.9%42.0%24.7%39.3%-0.5%44.6%-0.329.0%4.5%21.420.5%0.9%0.5%67.7%-0.2%76.3%-0.61車交通運(yùn)輸公用事業(yè)石 24年業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊?%)Wind一致預(yù)期建筑材料食品飲料400景氣方向板塊近一周24年盈利預(yù)測(cè)變動(dòng)(%)近四周24年盈利預(yù)測(cè)變動(dòng)(%)邊際上調(diào)汽車建筑裝飾交通運(yùn)輸邊際下調(diào)銀行銀行家用電器通信房地產(chǎn)石油石化食品飲料美容護(hù)理公用事業(yè)非銀金融紡織服飾傳媒計(jì)算機(jī)醫(yī)藥生物環(huán)?；A(chǔ)化工機(jī)械設(shè)備國(guó)防軍工煤炭輕工制造電力設(shè)備有色金屬社會(huì)服務(wù)農(nóng)林牧漁商貿(mào)零售建筑材料鋼鐵申萬(wàn)一級(jí)行業(yè)PB與ROE(TTM)分位屬備機(jī)食飾飾金融商行近一周24年盈利預(yù)測(cè)變動(dòng)(%)PE(TTM,整體)3年分位5年分位10年分位PE(TTM.中位數(shù))3年分位5年分位10年分位PB（LF）3年分位5年分位10年分位五日成交額占比五年分位數(shù)近一周換手率(MA5)五年分位近一周0.28%28.9%9.4%4.7%22.5%6.7%33.4%-0.2%27.5%-0.32化妝品0.19%4.9%4.9%22.5%37.9%9.0%6.3%2.3%41.9%0.0%39.7%-0.6525.05.9%4.5%35.8%27.44.5%9.3%50.4%32.3%-0.2%46.9%-0.13酒店餐飲48.831.6%35.5%4.9%4.7%58.3%0.0%66.2%-0.4758.42.5%25.9%49.94.92.4%4.8%69.7%0.0%81.1%-0.42啤酒4.5%2.9%8.2%6.8%30.4%62.3%60.0%0.0%60.2%-0.3026.481.9%81.9%49.2%24.5%27.86.7%2.0%0.6%37.9%-0.5%31.1%-0.92家居用品0.9%0.5%0.6%0.4%0.2%29.1%-0.1%84.1%-0.57航空機(jī)場(chǎng)41.2%64.7%82.4%59.6%66.9%80.4%54.8%72.9%83.6%50.6%0.0%61.8%-0.16醫(yī)療研發(fā)外包0.8%0.4%6.7%4.0%0.8%0.4%94.6%-0.1%97.2%-0.62化學(xué)制劑8.0%6.9%27.75.1%6.9%4.1%2.1%50.4%-0.3%65.6%-0.65家電零部件Ⅱ24.12.5%9.2%9.8%22.80.6%0.4%0.2%2.5%29.4%79.5%0.1%68.1%-0.330.7%0.6%2.0%4.9%2.4%9.0%82.4%-0.1%73.8%-0.52食品加工21.02.5%0.8%24.14.5%2.7%2.5%0.7%-0.1%26.9%-0.55養(yǎng)殖業(yè)53.862.2%69.3%59.2%28.520.5%47.6%26.4%9.9%6.6%7.9%-0.1%7.0%-0.49制造汽車零部件0.43%23.48.2%8.2%32.2%39.0%29.221.2%6.8%29.3%20.7%81.7%0.1%73.3%-0.38乘用車0.10%20.134.2%67.2%22.4%35.2%48.2%68.3%0.1%78.6%0.00工程機(jī)械0.09%21.763.5%77.7%50.5%26.267.3%68.1%45.3%43.2%43.2%-0.1%61.6%-0.43電網(wǎng)設(shè)備27.95.1%2.5%25.8%24.9%-0.3%40.3%-0.61軍工電子Ⅱ38.02.5%0.8%42.68.2%2.2%4.1%68.3%0.0%66.6%-0.44機(jī)器人57.851.9%65.1%48.3%49.665.4%74.0%49.5%9.1%9.3%87.0%0.0%87.5%-0.31航空裝備Ⅱ36.12.6%0.8%0.6%0.4%0.2%2.7%9.2%23.7%-0.2%30.2%-0.49光伏設(shè)備0.8%0.6%0.4%0.2%2.6%54.5%0.0%44.9%-0.410.6%25.10.6%0.4%0.2%27.4%-0.5%35.8%-0.57風(fēng)電設(shè)備22.424.9%21.636.6%-0.1%44.1%-0.70TMT消費(fèi)電子26.521.0%9.6%34.6%21.2%2.1%0.6%52.5%0.3%55.8%-0.17游戲Ⅱ68.7%76.2%49.7%29.673.7%52.0%36.9%57.2%50.7%32.3%85.5%0.3%89.7%0.20半導(dǎo)體58.357.4%37.3%23.8%58.344.2%28.6%2.3%2.2%6.6%85.5%0.2%33.4%-0.19金融地產(chǎn)公用物流0.04%2.1%0.6%0.4%0.2%2.0%41.7%-0.1%74.3%-0.41基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)23.1%20.7%37.2%40.0%20.0%9.0%4.5%68.7%-0.1%69.4%-0.34城商行Ⅱ4.921.3%9.9%5.08.3%4.9%22.0%6.6%87.9%-0.1%86.7%-0.30房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)50.0%70.0%46.2%41.0%54.9%33.6%2.5%0.7%34.8%-0.1%85.7%-0.3329.3%50.4%53.8%4.5%24.9%47.7%34.8%60.1%-0.4%50.2%-0.32證券Ⅱ20.459.3%35.6%35.5%27.482.1%50.2%49.6%9.6%6.7%56.5%0.2%70.7%-0.13周期貴金屬29.9%33.1%35.2%30.5%36.2%-0.1%47.1%-0.42農(nóng)化制品44.0%26.4%47.4%29.1%20.8%2.1%2.8%48.6%-0.1%37.6%-0.57工業(yè)金屬56.0%33.6%21.527.2%56.1%39.6%52.0%-0.2%42.6%-0.44煤炭開采9.890.0%86.7%49.7%76.3%68.9%44.4%91.5%94.9%91.8%87.6%0.2%68.7%-0.11裝修建材24.92.1%0.6%34.4%-0.1%90.6%-0.60能源金屬20.4%6.1%21.2%0.9%0.5%21.8%0.0%22.3%-0.55普鋼22.079.6%87.7%60.2%65.4%70.5%56.8%9.2%36.2%-0.1%47.1%-0.42 0.661.091.70數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈細(xì)分22年實(shí)際增速23年預(yù)測(cè)增速24年預(yù)測(cè)增速上游光學(xué)元件半導(dǎo)體封測(cè)光模塊網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全半導(dǎo)體材料半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備基站計(jì)算機(jī)設(shè)備消費(fèi)電子半導(dǎo)體分立器件汽車電子光纖光纜-1519%-45% 33%-77% 37% 3% 25% 4%-12% -2%-15%-13%9%85%25.021.230.929.1 0.661.091.70數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈細(xì)分22年實(shí)際增速23年預(yù)測(cè)增速24年預(yù)測(cè)增速上游光學(xué)元件半導(dǎo)體封測(cè)光模塊網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全半導(dǎo)體材料半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備基站計(jì)算機(jī)設(shè)備消費(fèi)電子半導(dǎo)體分立器件汽車電子光纖光纜-1519%-45% 33%-77% 37% 3% 25% 4%-12% -2%-15%-13%9%85%25.021.230.929.116.025.221.820.117.915.616.318.318.512.50.290.290.430.480.350.640.580.550.520.460.500.570.630.61-6433-446%40%37%37%35%34%32%32%29%20%中游數(shù)據(jù)安全云計(jì)算工業(yè)軟件運(yùn)營(yíng)商-38%-47%-20% -4%9%54357%57%32%32%9%30.830.921.334.515.60.540.54下游數(shù)字政府在線教育智能物流金融科技游戲（剔世紀(jì)華通）智能汽車智能電網(wǎng)數(shù)字媒體-59%5622646%27.432.010.923.617.013.713.222.30.6040%33%29%27%25%6%-11%0% 42%-23%0.330.630.55-1%0.82-19.4911111圖：數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì)細(xì)分產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈預(yù)期市盈率及業(yè)績(jī)?cè)鏊俟I(yè)軟件在線教育金融科技 0.820.820.350.400.250.220.580.330.740.570.670.320.640.82-1.8499%372%期）0.350.400.250.220.580.330.740.570.670.320.640.82-1.8499%372%期）軍工半導(dǎo)體材料消費(fèi)電子風(fēng)電設(shè)備光伏加工設(shè)備半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備儲(chǔ)能逆變器新能源整車動(dòng)力電池智能汽車創(chuàng)新藥電池組件新材料智能電網(wǎng)硅料硅片-8% 37%-14%-23% 69% 25%104%-20% 27% 92%107%-11%49%34%9%45%34%51%39.323.323.029.929.821.422.39.524.48.126.09.68.421.822.87.720.48.50.510.460.520.540.5546%40%38%38%37%35%31%29%29%27%26%26%24%24%23%20%17%-5%37%40%22%20%28%31%-8%-28%53%25%38%20%44% 熱門概念估值及換手率：AIGC表現(xiàn)亮眼表：熱門概念本周表現(xiàn)及估值水平類別指數(shù)名稱本周漲跌幅年初至2月5日本周漲跌幅漲跌幅PS（TTM）三年分位PE（TTM）三年分位換手率(MA5)五年分位近一周變化汽車熱管理無(wú)人駕駛18.7%11.5%-38.9%1.620.2%39.225.2%73.1%-0.17-34.0%1.12.8%29.02.3%65.6%-0.19新能源發(fā)電TOPcon電池HJT電池光伏逆變器光伏屋頂儲(chǔ)能特高壓9.2%9.1%6.8%6.7%5.6%5.3%-32.1%1.11.8%13.52.6%25.0%0.50-30.0%1.23.8%11.34.1%32.3%-0.58-30.7%2.43.4%18.23.4%24.4%-0.47-25.6%1.22.8%12.44.1%41.2%-0.34-30.0%1.42.2%18.12.2%31.3%-0.51-24.1%1.34.1%16.210.9%24.4%-0.38半導(dǎo)體先進(jìn)封裝半導(dǎo)體材料EDA半導(dǎo)體設(shè)備 IGBT 第三代半導(dǎo)體8.5%6.4%5.8%5.0%-36.4%1.614.6%67.985.0%74.1%0.46-33.9%2.92.3%29.12.3%58.8%-0.45-23.7%1.23.4%20.43.0%93.9%-0.22-32.3%5.52.3%36.02.8%53.6%-0.434.7%4.4%-28.7%1.22.3%18.82.3%62.8%-0.33-28.1%3.22.2%62.632.9%24.8%-0.57新消費(fèi)CRO醫(yī)美 培育鉆石 預(yù)制菜7.2%7.0%6.7%6.7%-33.0%4.11.4%19.61.4%99.1%-0.60-24.4%3.02.5%33.62.5%40.0%-0.53-35.5%3.518.6%61.553.6%42.2%-0.203.3%-17.3%0.83.2%44.425.3%11.6%-0.55科技AIGC東數(shù)西算華為鴻蒙云計(jì)算數(shù)字貨幣機(jī)器視覺(jué)6G工業(yè)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)信創(chuàng) 數(shù)字經(jīng)濟(jì) 元宇宙25.3%22.2%19.6%16.8%14.9%14.4%12.5%9.8%7.4%4.8%4.8%-35.7%2.690.6%592.420.7%75.3%0.95-32.6%2.886.2%86.2%87.179.8%79.8%81.7%0.85-36.7%1.426.0%330.849.2%76.8%0.69-34.7%1.718.2%54.442.2%81.5%0.18-36.2%2.42.2%122.353.3%49.1%-0.05-40.9%2.824.9%31.418.9%52.2%-0.12-31.6%2.229.6%34.44.4%-0.06-27.5%1.024.1%19.7 38.4%87.8%-0.07-29.4%2.03.6%33.229.8%82.3%-0.05-21.6%1.826.4%23.742.9%56.2%-0.104.5%-21.5%1.73.9%40.063.7%63.7%66.1%-0.12其他機(jī)器人中字頭央企大飛機(jī)14.5%6.0%4.4%-33.4%1.512.7%28.0 38.4%88.1%-0.04-10.2%0.798.2%11.893.8%87.0%-0.13-29.8%2.22.6%35.62.6%35.6%-0.49全球：上證指數(shù)、滬深300、恒生指數(shù)指數(shù)表現(xiàn)亮眼表：全球主要股指本周表現(xiàn)及估值水平本周漲跌幅近1月漲跌幅近3月漲跌幅PE（TTM）3年分位5年分位10年分位PE（2022.1.4）PE（2022.10.12)納斯達(dá)克指數(shù)道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)創(chuàng)業(yè)板指標(biāo)普500日經(jīng)225韓國(guó)綜合指數(shù)滬深300法國(guó)CAC40德國(guó)DAX上證指數(shù)英國(guó)富時(shí)100恒生指數(shù)1.401.401.301.811.661.590.723.712.561.764.85-0.072.363.703.234.184.617.077.637.987.834.768.442.958.9412.2541.1641.16 26.28 26.22 25.32 21.37 19.20 18.5612.6211.7510.057.7065.4%75.6%77.1%65.1%75.2%43.6%65.4%75.6%77.1%65.1%75.2%43.6%22.4%26.4%22.4%87.6%1.3%1.3%0.8%0.4%64.7%64.7%80.8% 82.1%72.5%75.9% 83.3%69.0%77.3% 1.3%3.9%5.5%13.2%13.2%22.4%11.1%11.1%10.3%0.8%1.2%3.9%0.8%1.3%6.4%1.3%38.5126.4861.7826.5616.7013.8513.9922.1815.5913.8816.6610.6725.5718.4944.4118.3226.439.3311.1612.2711.8711.8212.438.0710.57-9.2811.6116.286.85-1.369.248.67-1.192.91-4.75風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示不一致的偏差問(wèn)題。同時(shí)由于數(shù)據(jù)存在滯后性，如10月25日披露數(shù)據(jù)僅反應(yīng)9月行業(yè)情況，因此基于歷史數(shù)據(jù)2）海內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退：當(dāng)前海外處于經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退周期，國(guó)內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境不景氣將影響部本報(bào)告署名分析師在此聲明：（i）以勤勉的職業(yè)態(tài)度、專業(yè)審慎的研究方法，使用合法合規(guī)的信息，獨(dú)立、客觀地出具本報(bào)告,結(jié)論不受任何第三方的授意或影響。（ii）本人不曾因，不因，也將不會(huì)因本報(bào)告中的具體推薦意見或觀點(diǎn)而直接或間接收到任何形式的補(bǔ)償。本報(bào)告由中信建投證券股份有限公司及/或其附屬機(jī)構(gòu)（以下合稱“中信建投”）制作，由中信建投證券股份有限公司在中華人民共和國(guó)（僅為本報(bào)告目的，不包括香港、澳門、臺(tái)灣）提供。中信建投證券股份有限公司具有中國(guó)證監(jiān)會(huì)許可的投資咨詢業(yè)務(wù)資格，本報(bào)告署名分析師所持中國(guó)證券業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)授予的證券投資咨詢執(zhí)業(yè)資格證書編號(hào)已披露在報(bào)告首頁(yè)。在遵守適用的法律法規(guī)情況下，本報(bào)告亦可能由中信建投（國(guó)際）證券有限公司在香港提供。本報(bào)告作者所持香港證監(jiān)會(huì)牌照的中央編號(hào)已披露在報(bào)告首頁(yè)。本報(bào)告由中信建投制作。發(fā)送本報(bào)告不構(gòu)成任何合同或承諾的基礎(chǔ)，不因接收者收到本報(bào)告而視其為中信建投客戶。本報(bào)告的信息均來(lái)源于中信建投認(rèn)為可靠的公開資料，但中信建投對(duì)這些信息的準(zhǔn)確性及完整性不作任何保證。