ResearchReport

What'sDrivingBitcoinAdoptionin2025?

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Introduction

Trustinbitcoinhasgrownfasterthanthatofanyassetinhistory.Whilebitcoinisaformofmoney,itsrateofadoptionmirrorsthatoftheinternet.

Yet,despiteitsremarkablesuccess,Bitcoin'sadoptionisatafractionofitsfullpotentialforsavingsandpayments.

Inthisreportwelayouttheprimaryfactors

drivingBitcoin'semergenceasthenextglobalreserveasset.

Inaddition,wecovertheevolutionofthe

Bitcoinprotocol,theLightningNetwork,andBitcoin'scustodylandscape.

BitcoinAdoptionToday

GlobalReserveAssets

Bitcoin

USTreasuries

Gold&Silver

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1800190020002100

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TableofContents

1.TheStateofBitcoin

2.ThisBullMarketisDifferent

3.InstitutionsAreDrivingBitcoin'sPrice

4.BusinessBitcoinAdoptionisAccelerating

5.LightningNetworkGrowthContinues

6.BitcoinCustodyisMaturing

7.TheDramaticShiftinNationStateAdoption

8.GlobalBitcoinAdoptionisat3%

3

12

→17

→21

→25

→32

→37

44

1.

TheStateofBitcoin

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TheBitcoinProtocol

TheBitcoinprotocol,now16yearsold,isstillseeinghighlevelsofongoingdevelopment:

●115activeBitcoinCorecontributors+2since2023

·2,500BitcoinCorecodecommitsin2024+8.5%year-over-year

·276,000linesofcodechangedtoBitcoinCorein2024

·13organizationsarenowfundingdevelopment,withthreenewentrantsin2024

BitcoinDeveloperFundingOrganizations

Blockstream

brinkBtrust

chaincode

digital

initiative

currency

Newin

Human

Rights

Foundation

Spiral

okcoin

vinteum

>_OpenSats

2024

2140B40SIMaelstrom

BitcoinCore:LinesofCode

Basecode■Dependencies

□Localization

Tests

Documentation

2010201520202025

TheBitcoinProtocol:PotentialUpgrades

ProposedchangestotheBitcoinprotocolfocusonthreekeyareas:

Programmability:EnhancingflexibilityinBitcoinstorageandtransactions.

Scaling:IncreasingtransactionthroughputbothonandofftheBitcoinblockchain.

Security:StrengtheningBitcoin'sresilienceagainstthreatsandreducingtechnicaldebt.

Untildevelopersandthebroadercommunityreachconsensusonwhichprotocolenhancementto

adopt,thelikelihood,timeline,andimplementationofproposedchangesremainuncertain.

BigintArithmetic

DriveChains

GreatConsensusCleanupGreatScriptRestorationLNHANCE

OP_CAT

OP_CHECKCONTRACTVERIFYOP_CHECKSIGFROMSTACK

OP_CHECKTEMPLATEVERIFYOP_EXPIRE

OP_TXHASH/OP_TXOP_VAULT

QuBit

SIGHASH_ANYPREVOUTTapLeafUpdateVerify

TXIntrospection

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TheBitcoinNetwork:NodesandHashrate

Bitcoinoperatesonadecentralizednetworkofnodesandminers.Bymostmetrics,thehealthoftheBitcoinnetworkismorerobustthanever.

Roughly21,700reachablenodescomprisetheBitcoinnetwork,growingby11%in2024.BitcoinCorehas

98%marketshareamongnodeimplementations.

NodeCount

Source:B

TheBitcoinnetworkissecuredbyalmost800

exahashofcomputationalpower,meaningevery

secondthereare800quintillioncomputationsbeingdonetosecurethenetwork.

Minerhashratehasgrownbyanaverageof107%peryearsince2016,with55%growthin2024.

TotalHashrate

Bitcoin'sHashrateIsDecentralizing

HashratedistributionisanimportantindicatorofBitcoin'snetworkhealth.Hashratecentralizationincreasestheriskofthreatslikea51%attack,

whichcouldcompromisethenetwork'ssecurity.

GeographicDistribution:

●Trendofdecentralizationovertime.China

andtheUSdeclineinshareofglobalhashrate

●28countries>0.1%hashrate●9countries>1%hashrate

MiningPoolDistribution:

·RemainsBitcoin'slargestpointofcentralization,butshowingsignsofimprovement

·Hashrateinthetop3,5,and10poolsfellin2024HashrateOwnershipDistribution:

·Publiccompaniesaccountfor35.2%oftotalhashrate,+11%since2022

GeographicHashrateDistribution

#2:Russia,16%

#6:Canada,3%

一#7:Kazakhstan,2.5%

#1:US,36%

#5:Paraguay,3.5%—

#3:China,14%

·#4:UAE,3.75%

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Source:

MiningPoolDistribution

Top3Pools-

Top5PoolsTop10PoolsOther

23

Dec

24

Dec

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0%25%

50%75%100%

Source:

Bitcoin'sSupplyGrowthIsNowBelowtheDollarandGold

Bitcoinasamonetarysystem

continuestofunctionasdesigned,withzerodowntimeoverthepastdecadeandahighlypredictablesupplyschedule:

●94%ofall21millionbitcoin

havebeenmined,withthe

remaining6%tobeminedoverthenext~115years

·Monetaryissuancedecreasedfrom~900to～450BTC/dayaftertheApril2024halving

·2024bitcoinsupplygrowthwas0.8%,lowerthanallmajorfiatcurrenciesandgold

“WhatHappensAfterAllBitcoinAreMined?”

SupplyGrowthSince2020

+50%

+40%

+30%

+20%

+10%

202020212022202320242025

USDollar

+3.7%in2024

+6.8%averageannual

supplygrowthsince2015

Gold+1.95%in2024

+2-3%averageannual

supplygrowthsince1800

Bitcoin

+0.85%in2024

Newsupplytodeclineby50%every4yrsuntil2140

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BitcoinIsSettlingHigher-ValueTransactions

WhiletheBitcoinblockchainisnotdesignedforeverydaypayments,therehasbeena

significantincreaseusagetosettlehigh-valuetransactions.

2024Y/yChange

TotalValueTransferred

$3.43T

+140%

AverageTxSize

$17.8K

+91.8%

MedianTxFee

$2.28

+4.0%

ValueTransferredontheBitcoinNetwork

$5T

$4T

$3T

$2T

$1T

Source:CoinMetrics

*Excludesinternalmovementswithinthesameowner'swallets

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TheBitcoinMonetarySystem:MarketSize

Bitcoin'smarketcapsurpassed$2trillionforthefirsttimein2024,placingitamongtheworld'slargest

currenciesandsafe-havenassets.

BitcoinMarketCap

BitcoinIstheWorld's11thLargestCurrency

MoneySupply

Currency(inUSD)

1.

★:

ChineseYuan

$43.1T

2.

USDollar

$21.7T

3.

Euro

$16.2T

4.

JapaneseYen

$10.6T

5.

BritishPound

$4.5T

6.

KoreanWon

$3.9T

7.

IndianRupee

$3.1T

8.

CanadianDollar

$2.6T

9.秀HongKongDollar$2.4T

10.BrazilianReal$2.1T

11.Bitcoin$1.9T

Source:

BitcoinOwnershipDistribution(Dec31,2024)

Individuals

14.56MBTC

69.4%ofSupply

Satoshi/Patoshi

968KBTC

4.6%ofSupply

Businesses

914KBTC

4.4%ofSupply

Funds&ETFs

1.29MBTC

6.1%ofSupply

21millionbitcoin

OtherEntities

190KBTC

0.9%ofSupply

LostBitcoin

1.57MBTC

7.5%ofSupply

Governments

297KBTC

1.4%ofSupply

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ToBeMined

1.20MBTC

5.7%ofSupply

EstimatedbyBitMEX

Researchbasedon

analysisofhashingin2009

Includesbankrupt

estatesandBTConDeFi/smartcontracts

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EstimatedbasedonsupplybyUTXOagecohort

ThisBullMarketisDifferent

ComparingBitcoin'sBullMarkets

Bitcoin'sPricePerformanceAfterCycleLows

100X2015-2017BullMarket

IRIVER●+11,082%performanceover1,068days

·$326Bincreaseinmarketcap

2018-2021BullMarket

●+2,021%performanceover1,060days

10X·$1.21Tincreaseinmarketcap

2022-PresentBullMarket(asof1/31/24)·+566%performanceover800+days·$1.78Tincreaseinmarketcap

2004006008001,(000

DaysSinceCycleLow

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CurrentBullMarketNotDrivenByGlobalMoneySupplyGrowth(Yet)

2018-2021BullMarket

33.0%increaseinGlobalM2

CurrentBullMarket

6.8%increaseinGlobalM2

2015-2017BullMarket

19.3%increaseinGlobalM2

$100K

$10K

BitcoinPrice

$1K

20202022

2024

+20%

20162018

GlobalM2

+10%

MoneySupply,

YoYChange

+0%

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-10%

Datasource:BG

ADramaticShiftinBitcoinAccumulationOccurredin2024

Previouscyclesweredrivenbyindividuals,butETFsandbusinessesweretheprimarybitcoinaccumulatorsin

2024.

●BitcoinETFshadrecordbreakinglaunches,

adding519KBTCin2024

●Businessesadded374KBTCin2024,31%morethanin2020

2024ChangeinBitcoinOwnership,BySector

+600K

+400K

+200K

0

-200K

-400K

-600K

+519K

+374K

-62K

-306K

-525K

Funds&ETFsBusinessesGovernmentsOther*Individuals

*Includeschangeinbitcointobemined,BTCheldsmartcontracts,andestimatedbitcoinlost

InstitutionsAreDrivingBitcoin'sPrice

USSpotBitcoinETFsReached$100B,Driving2024PriceAction

$125K

$100K

$75K

$50K

1.50M

BitcoinPriceBTCHeldbyUSSpotETFs

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1.25M

1.00M

0.75M

USBitcoinETFAUM:$99.7B*

InstitutionalInvestors:

HedgeFunds:

InvestmentAdvisors:

AssetManagers:

MarketMakers:

Governments:

Banks:

Other:

Total:

$27.2B$7.1B$1.9B$1.5B$0.4B$0.4B$0.4B

$38.9B

Non-InstitutionalInvestors:

Total:$60.8B

Jan

Mar

May

Jul

Sep

Nov

Jan

*AsofDecember31,2024

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52%oftheTop25HedgeFundsandRIAsOwnBitcoinETFs

HedgefundsandRegisteredInvestmentAdvisors(RIAs)collectivelymanageover$135trillionintheUSalone.

Whiletotalexposureexceeds$30billion,allocationsizesremainrelativelysmall.However,theyhave

increasedeachquartersincethelaunchoftheETFs.

HedgeFunds

RIAs

Firms>$1BAUMwithExposure

143

458

%ofTop25Largest

FirmsbyAUMwith

Exposure

52%

52%

WeightedAverage

BitcoinAllocation

Size

0.24%

0.02%

BitcoinETFExposurein2024HedgeFundsRIAs

BitcoinETFOwnershipDistribution

HedgeFunds

295KBTC(27.3%)

Only225ofthe30,000+existinghedgefundsownBitcoinETFs,

withanaverageallocationof0.2%.

AssetManagers

20KBTC(1.9%)

BlackRock.MorganStanley

DEShaw&Co

WELLINGTONMANAGEMENT⑧

[合ALLIANCEBERNSTEIN°

余Invesco

SovereignWealthFunds

5KBTC(0.4%)

MubadalaoftheUnitedArab

EmiratesistheonlysuchfundwithexposuretoBitcoinETFs,a

positioninitiatedinQ42024.

USBitcoinETFs:1.08MBTC

Non-InstitutionalInvestors

658KBTC(60.0%)

Includesindividuals,smallfunds,andholdingsinIRAsandothertax-

advantagedaccounts.

RIAS

77KBTC(7.1%)

Just3%ofallUSRIAsholdBitcoinETFs,ofwhichtheaverageallocationis0.02%.

Other

QTY(BTC)

16.0K

4.5K

3.6K

0.1K

25KBTC(2.3%)Type#ofFirms

MktMakers

15

Banks

45

Pensions

3

InsuranceCos

6

BusinessBitcoinAdoptionis

Accelerating

BusinessesHaveAccumulatedOver1,000BTCPerDaySinceJanuary2024

AggregateBusinessBitcoinHoldings

1M

750K

500K

250K

2018202020222024

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PublicCompaniesHoldingBitcoinGrewby80%in2024

PublicCompaniesWithBitcoinHoldings

Thenumberofpubliccompaniesholdingbitcoingrewby139%

since2023,eventhoughits

adoptionasatreasuryasset

remainsbelow1%ofallpubliclytradedfirms.

TheS&P500andNASDAQ100have2and3companieswithbitcoinholdings,respectively.

20202021202220232025

TheRiseoftheBitcoinStandardCompany

Anincreasingnumberofcompaniesareusingbitcoinastheirprimarytreasuryassetandthemainvehiclefor

holdingretainedearnings,ratherthandistributingearningsthroughdividendsorsharebuybacks.

BTCHoldingsofSelect

BitcoinStandardCompanies

ThishasgivenrisetoanovelindicatorknownasBTCYield,measuringacompany's

performancebasedontheirabilitytoincreasebitcoinholdingspershare.

Strategy(formerlyMicroStrategy)SatsperShare

202320242025

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Lightning

NetworkGrowthContinues

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RisingVolume,FewerTransactions

TheLightningNetworkhascontinuedits

growthdespitealowertransactioncount,

accordingtoournetworkusageestimatesforthemonthofNovember2024.

Thischangeinnetworkusageislikelyduetoevolvingspendingbehavior:Exchange

depositsandwithdrawalshavegrown,whilemicropaymentsuse-casesarestillintheirinfancy.

BasedonDataSharedBy:

RIVERLQwDTHNLRWalletofSatoshi

BITFINEX93reezAlbycyberdynesh

LNBGACINQmKrakenSunnySarah

niceHaSHC=□H

EstimatedMonthlyLightningNetworkUsage

VolumeinUSDNumberofTransactions

400M8M

300M

200M

100M

August2021August2023November2024

*Allvaluesareforroutedtransactions.Lowerboundestimatesasprivatetransactionsareexcluded

LightningMethodologytoDetermineTransactionsandVolume

DuetothearchitectureoftheLightningNetwork,anoutsideobservercan'tdetermineexactlyhowmanytransactionsarehappeningonthenetwork.

Ourestimatesarederivedbyaggregatingdatafrommanylargenodeswithinthenetwork.Toensureaccuracy,wefirstadjustthisdatadownwardtoaccountforoverlappingtransactionsbefore

extrapolatingtoarriveatnetwork-wideestimates.

OurNovember2024datasetwasmadepossibleby14dataproviders,representing79.4%ofLightningNetworkcapacity.

Basedonthetransactiondatareceived,weestimatedthat48.8%ofalltransactionsoverlapped,necessitatingadownwardadjustmentof24.4%toboththetotaltransactioncountandvolume.

Afterapplyingthisadjustment,weextrapolatedtherefineddatasettocovertheremaining20.6%oftheLightningNetwork'scapacitynot

includedinourdata.

River's2023LightningNetworkReportprovidesanexpandedexplanationofourmethodologyandhowtheLightningNetworkworks.

RIVEROctober2023

ResearchReport

TheLightningNetworkGrewby1212%in2Years

Whylt'sTimetoPayAttention

ExchangesAreaLargeDriverofLightningNetworkGrowth

Exchangedepositsandwithdrawalsinvolvehigher-valuetransactionsthanotherLightningusecases

suchastipping,gaming,andsmallpurchases,withtheaverage

deposit/withdrawalsizeover$100.

Since2023,exchangeadoptionhasdrivenLightningNetworkgrowth,nowaccountingforatleasttwo-

thirdsoftotalvalueroutedbasedonourestimations.

100%

75%

50%

25%

ShareofExchangeswithLightningIntegration

(basedontradingvolume)

Whenexchanges

integratedLightning

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BITFINEX

strike

8BITAROO

Bipa

Buda

.com

CoinCorner

okcoin

OKEX

★BULTCOvbtc

PrimeBitSIMPLEFX

BitcoinVN

bitnob

Osmo

BLZP

SCashApp

mKraken

UCUNOCOIN

coinfinity

BINANCE

Rain

ripio

【Pouch.ph

Mt

8Pelerin

BtcTurk

Bitso

HTX

KUCOIN

RRelai

coinbase

201920202021202220232024

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Datasource:Messari

Increasedcompetitionintransactionroutingserviceshasledtoaconsolidationofthenumberofnodesandchannelsacrossthenetwork.

Whileroutingefficiencyhasimproved,centralizationhas

LightningNetworkArchitectureisEvolvingLightningNetworkcapacityhasremainedflatsince

2023inBTCterms,indicatingthatcapacityissufficienttohandlecurrentlevelsoftransactiondemand.

increased,withthetop10nodesbycapacitynowcontrolling84.6%ofthetotalnetworkcapacity.

PublicLightningNetworkNodesandChannels

……·Channels-35%

frompeak

……Nodes-19%

frompeak

Datasource:B

Withtheprofessionalizationofchannelmanagement,transactionroutingefficiencyhaslikelyimproved,

enablingthesamecapacitytosupporthigherthroughput.

LightningNetworkCapacity

Datasource:B

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WhyLightningHasn'tGrownFaster

LightningNetworkadoptionislargelydrivenbybitcoin'susageasamediumofexchangeandtransactionfeesontheBitcoin

blockchain.

Whilemerchantbitcoinadoptionfor

paymentsissteadilygrowing,thetotal

numberoflocationsacceptingbitcoin

remainslow.Thisispartlyduetoalimitedwillingnesstousebitcoinfortransactionswhenmoreconvenientalternativesare

available.

Additionally,BitcointransactionfeeshavenotyetreachedalevelthatwoulddriveasignificantshifttowardtheLightning

Networkorotherscalingsolutions.

NumberofMerchantLocationsAcceptingBitcoin

202320242025Datasource:BTCM

AverageBitcoinTransactionFee(30dayaverage)

Datasource:CoinMetricsRIVER30

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Near-TermLightningNetworkGrowthCatalysts

Estimated2024TransactionVolume

$6T

Stablecoinsrepresentthelargest

demandsourceforblockchain-basedpaymentsin2025.

WiththereleaseofTaprootAssetsinDecember2023,stablecoinpaymentscannowbefacilitatedoverLightning.

Thelargeststablecoinissuer,Tether,announcedtheintegrationofitsUSDTstablecoinintotheLightningNetworkinJanuary2025.

StablecoinsBitcoinLightningDatasource:CoinMetrics

Stablecoins

Layer2Settlement

Since2021,Layer2scalingprojectsonBitcoinhaveincreasedfrom10to75,accordingtoGalaxyResearch,raising$447millioninventurecapitalfunding.

WeexpecttheLightningNetworktoserveasthesettlementlayerbetweenvariousLayer2solutionssuchasrollups,sidechains,ecashmints,andArk.

BitcoinCustodyisMaturing

Third-PartyCustodyOfferingsareEvolving

BitcoinHeldbyKnownThirdParties

Whilebitcoinbalancesheldonexchangeshavefallenbyover20%since2022,thesecoinshaveremainedonthird-partycustodiansratherthanflowingtoself-custody.

Weexpecttheamountof

bitcoinheldbyknownthirdpartiestoincreasewith

heighteneddemandforETFsandsimilarproducts.

DeFi&SmartContractsStrategy(formerlyMicroStrategy)

Funds&ETFs■Exchanges

5M

4M

3M

2M

1M

2022202320242025

BitcoinCustodyHasBecomeMoreSecure

■BTCLostonExchanges■EstimatedBTCLostbySelf-Custody

800k

Over1.3millionbitcoinhavebeencompromisedon

exchangesthroughhacks,internaltheft,and

600k

bankruptcies.

400k

Anestimated1.6millionbitcoinhavebeenlostviaself-custody.

200k

Only10%oflossesoccurredafter2015.

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ProofofReservesisBecominganIndustryStandard

ProofofReserves,amethodforexchangestovalidatetheyholdtheirclients'bitcoin,has

becomeanindustrystandard,accountingforoverhalfofallexchangeholdings.

ThisshiftoccurredintheaftermathofFTX'sNovember2022collapse,whichcostusersover20,000BTC.

ExchangesUsingProofofReserves

RIVERPJBitMEX

CCoinEx

Gate.io

Bitget

HTX

BITFINEXBYBITDeribit

mKraken

KUCOIN

580%IncreaseinProofofReservesSince2022

TotalBTConExchanges%UnderProofofReserves

4M

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3.22MBTC

2.96MBTC3.06MBTC

2.45MBTC

2M

52.1%

41.8%

5.8%

43.5%

2022202320242025

BitcoinSupplyDistributionbyCustodySetup(Dec31,2024)

Third-PartyCustody

8.17MBTC

38.9%ofSupply

Includesbusiness,government,ETF,

andwrappedbitcoinholdings

Coinbaseholdsanestimated2.37MBTC(11.3%ofsupply) betweenexchangeandinstitutionalbusinesses

Exchanges:2.45M

(11.7%ofsupply)

Self-Custody

11.63MBTC

55.4%ofSupply

Anestimated10-30millionindividualsself-custodytheirbitcoin

21millionbitcoin

BTC

ToBeMined

1.29MBTC

5.7%ofSupply

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7.

TheDramaticShiftinNation

Policy

StateAdoption

Popular

Sensible

AcceptableRadical

Unthinkable

RegulatoryChangestoBitcoinSince2020

MoreAccess(47countries)LessAccess(4countries)

34countries

approvedbitcoin

ETFsorETPs.

TheUSallowedbankstocustodybitcoinin2025.

Venezuela

bannedbitcoinminingin2024.

Bolivialegalizedbitcoinin2024.

Argentina

legalizedbitcoin

paymentsin2023.RIVER

Russialegalizedminingandbitcoin'susagein

internationalpaymentsin2024.

Chinabannedbitcoinminingin2021.

HongKongallowedinvestorsaccesstobitcoinin2023.

Turkeylegalized

bitcoinpaymentsin2024.

Nigerialegalizedbitcoinin2023.

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Only9CountriesStillOutlawBitcoin

MorethanhalfofallcountriesthathaveoutlawedBitcoinhavesinceliftedtheserestrictions,with5countriesunbanningorofficiallylegalizingBitcoinsince2022.ItisunlikelythatBitcoinwillbewidely

bannedbygovernmentsinthefuture.

AfghanistanisthemostrecentcountrytobanBitcoin.InAugust2022,the

Talibanauthoritiesprohibitedallbitcointradingwithinthecountry.

Moroccoisthemostrecent

countrytoliftitsbanonBitcoinin2024,endingrestrictionsthathadbeeninplacesince2017.

□PreviouslyBanned(16countries)□CurrentlyBanned(9countries)

18Nation-StatesEstimatedtoOwnBitcoin

DirectPurchases:

●EISalvador:6KBTC

State-BackedMining:

●Bhutan:11.7KBTC●Iran

·Argentina●Oman

●Brazil●Russia

·Ethiopia

Seizures:

●UnitedStates:198KBTC

·UnitedKingdom:61KBTC

●China:15KBTC

●Venezuela:240BTC

●Finland:60BTC

IndirectExposurevia

GovernmentInvestment:

●UAE:4.7KBTC

·Norway:3.8KBTC

●Switzerland:1.1KBTC

Hacking/Theft:

●N.Korea:778BTC

Donations:

●Ukraine

Medium-Term(1-4Years)GlobalBitcoinPolicyCatalysts

Impacton

PolicyCatalystCurrentSituationWhatCouldChangeBitcoinAdoptionLikelihood

G20Nation(s)

Announcesa

StrategicBitcoin

Reserve

WhilethreeG20nationsown

bitcoindirectly,nonehave

acquiredbitcoinforstrategicpurposes.

WithheightenedgeopoliticaluncertaintyandaglobalshiftawayfromUStreasuriesasreserveassets,thereisamoderate

likelihoodofatleastoneG20nationtoannounceholdingbitcoinforstrategic

purposesinthenextfouryears.

VeryHigh

Medium

IncreasedUseof

Bitcoinin

InternationalTrade

Whilethedollarisstillthe

undisputedglobalreserve

currency,usedin88%offoreignexchangetransactions,countriessuchasRussiahavebegunusingalternativecurrencies,includingbitcoin,forinternationaltrade.

BitcoinstandstogainmarketshareasaneutralsettlementassetduringperiodsofheightenedgeopoliticaltensionandlossoftrustintheUSdollar.Thiswould

significantlyenhanceitsreputation,liquidity,andglobalaccessibility.

High

Medium

G7CentralBank(s)

Announcesa

StrategicBitcoin

Reserve

G7currencies,includingtheUSdollarandeuro,accountfor

92-94%ofglobalcentralbankreserves.NoG7centralbanksareknowntoholdbitcoin,andseveralhavepubliclyopposedaddingittotheirreserves.

GiventhestrengthofG7currenciesandtheconservativestanceoftheircentralbanks,bitcoinisunlikelytobeaddedtoG7reservesinthenextfouryears.However,ifitwere,itwouldsignalbitcoinrecognitionasaglobalreserveasset.

VeryHigh

Low

USCongressIsPro-Bitcoin,Gaining15Seatsinthe2024Election

AftertheNovember2024election,themajorityofboththeHouseandSenatearenowpro-Bitcoin,basedonpublicstatementsandpoliticalactivity,asdefinedbyadvocacygroupStandWithCrypto.

InJanuary2025,aSenatepanelondigitalassetswasestablishedwithtwofocusareas:

1.Passlegislationforresponsibleinnovationandconsumer

protection,coveringmarketstructure,stablecoins,andastrategicbitcoinreserve.

2.RegulatoryoversighttopreventoverreachsuchasOperationChokepoint2.0.

Pro-BitcoinMembers20242025Change

Senate

57

59

+2

HouseofRepresentatives

276

289

+13

SenateHouseofRepresentatives

DataSource:StandWithCrypto

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USBitcoinPolicyCatalystsOvertheNextFourYears

Impacton

PolicyCatalystDescriptionBitcoinAdoptionLikelihood

RepealingSAB121

USbankscannowcustodybitcoin,andsomewillincrementallydosooverthecomingyears.Theywilllikelyfocusoninstutionalclientsfirstbeforeinvestinginwide-scaleservicesforindividuals.

High

Completed

(Jan2025)

HaltingofOperationChokePoint