41I II II請注意本文件的某些內(nèi)容可能涉及專利。本文件的發(fā)布機(jī)構(gòu)不承擔(dān)識別專利的責(zé)任。1氣象災(zāi)害防御第1部分：重點(diǎn)單位綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)劃規(guī)范3.1機(jī)關(guān)、團(tuán)體、企事業(yè)組織、社區(qū)、村鎮(zhèn)等非自然人實(shí)體的統(tǒng)3.23.33.4氣象災(zāi)害造成人員傷亡、財(cái)產(chǎn)損失以及社會和環(huán)境產(chǎn)生不利影響的可能性3.53.6強(qiáng)度越大，頻次越高，氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也越大，氣象災(zāi)害所造成的破壞和3.723.84.1區(qū)劃技術(shù)構(gòu)成氣象災(zāi)害綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)劃技術(shù)由氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源識別、氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)4.2區(qū)劃技術(shù)流程圖5.1氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源識別5.2氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)計(jì)算），5.3氣象災(zāi)害綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)劃35.3.1氣象災(zāi)害綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)Ic=Σ=1ajIj·········································································(1)j——第j個氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源；aj——第j個氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源的權(quán)重系數(shù)；Ij——第j個氣象災(zāi)害的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)。5.3.2氣象災(zāi)害綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)區(qū)劃4xi=(xixmin)?(xmaxxmin)····················································(A.1)xi——第i個樣本標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的無量綱值；xmin——原始序列中的最小值；xmax——原始序列中的最大值。假設(shè)評價體系是由n個風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源m個樣本構(gòu)成的系統(tǒng)，第j個風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源中第i個樣本的指標(biāo)值rij所占指標(biāo)比重pij，計(jì)算公式如下：·······································································(A.rij——第j個風(fēng)險(xiǎn)源中第i個樣本的指標(biāo)值。si——第i個樣本的熵值。計(jì)算第i個樣本的熵權(quán)，確定該指標(biāo)的客觀權(quán)重wi，計(jì)·····································································(A.重，最后再加權(quán)和的方法遞階歸并各備擇方——構(gòu)造判斷(成對比較)矩陣；5從小到大順序排列，并按數(shù)據(jù)個數(shù)進(jìn)行100等分。例如，在第P個分界點(diǎn)（稱為百分位點(diǎn)）上的數(shù)值，稱為第P個百分位數(shù)（P=1,2,…,99）。在第或6B.1暴雨氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)的計(jì)算方法和步驟暴雨氣象災(zāi)害致災(zāi)因子選取暴雨過程強(qiáng)度指數(shù)和暴雨孕災(zāi)環(huán)境Ir=A1×I1pre+B1×I24pre+C1×Ipre+D1×Iday···································(B.1)I24pre——標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的最大Ipre——Iday——標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的過程累積降水量。IS=（1+IEN）×Ir······························································(B.2)B.2干旱氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)的計(jì)算方法和步驟干旱氣象災(zāi)害致災(zāi)因子選取不同重現(xiàn)期下年干旱過程總累積強(qiáng)度的閾SMCI=∑∑1MCIkl····························································(B.3)）；nD——第l次過程的持續(xù)天數(shù)；MCIkl——第l次過程中第k天氣象干旱指數(shù)。子的權(quán)重系數(shù)，加權(quán)求和得到干旱氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù),計(jì)算公式如下：B.3雷電氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)的計(jì)算方法和步驟雷電氣象災(zāi)害致災(zāi)因子選取雷擊點(diǎn)密度、地閃強(qiáng)度、土壤電阻率、海拔高度B.4高溫氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)的計(jì)算方法和步驟高溫氣象災(zāi)害致災(zāi)因子選取過程平均氣溫、過程極端最I(lǐng)T=∑1ai×xi···································································(B.6)B.5大風(fēng)氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)的計(jì)算方法和步驟(B.7)7(B.7)78B.6低溫氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)的計(jì)算方法和步驟低溫氣象災(zāi)害一般包括冷空氣（寒潮）、霜凍、低溫陰雨寡照、冰凍等不同類采用信息熵賦值法或?qū)哟畏治龇ㄓ?jì)算權(quán)重系數(shù)，分別計(jì)算不同類型的低溫氣象災(zāi)害指數(shù)。Icold=b1×Dcold+b2×Max?T+b3×ETmin·······································(B.8)Icold—ETmin——標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的過程極端最低氣溫。Ifrost=c1×Dfrost+c2×Tave1+c3×ATmin········································(B.9)Ifrost——霜凍氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)；Dfrost——標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的霜凍日數(shù)；IlowT=d1×DlowT+d2×PAS+d3×Tave2+d4×PAP1···················IlowT——低溫陰雨寡照氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)；Ifrozen=e1×Dfrozen+e2×Tave3+e3×DTmin+e4×PAP2························(B.11)9Ifrozen——冰凍氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)；Dfrozen——標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化的冰凍日數(shù)；雪災(zāi)氣象災(zāi)害致災(zāi)因子選取累積降雪量、最大積Isnow=f1×S1+f2×S2+f3×S3·················································(B.12)Isnow——雪災(zāi)氣象f3——暴雪日數(shù)的權(quán)重系數(shù)；B.8冰雹氣象災(zāi)害風(fēng)險(xiǎn)指數(shù)的計(jì)算方法和步驟I?ail=∑1