Unit 23ContentofprojectriskmanagementText AccordingtoUSProjectmanagementAssociationtotheriskofdefinition,"therisk"isreferstotheprojectadvantageousorthedisadvantageouselementofcertainty.Theprojectis"forcompletesthedisposableendeavorwhichsomeuniqueproductortheservicestationdo",theproject"thedistinctivequality"haddecidedtheprojectnotimpossiblewasbywiththebeforeidenticalway,simultaneously,theprojectwhichcompletedbyandthebeforeidenticalpersonmustcreatetheproductortheservice,aswellastheprojectpossiblyinvolvedthescope,thetimeandthecostallnotimpossiblestartedwhentheprojectcompletelytodetermine,therefore,carriedonintheprocessintheprojectalsocorrespondingtobeabletoappearthemassiveuncertainty,namelyprojectrisk.Belowthisarticlementioned"therisk"isreferstotheproject"disadvantageously"theelementofcertainty. Existstotheprojectdisadvantageousriskinanyproject,oftenandcangivetheprojecttheadvancementandtheprojectsuccessbringsthenegativeinfluence.Oncetheriskoccurs,itsinfluenceisvarious,likecausestheprojectproduct/servicethefunctiontobeunabletosatisfythecustomertheneed,theprojectexpensesurpassesthebudget,theprojectplandraggingoriscompelledtocancelandsoon,itfinallymanifestsforcustomerdegreeofsatisfactiondepression.Therefore,therecognitionrisk,theappraisalriskandtakethemeasuretobesupposedtobetheriskmanagementhavetheextremelyvitalsignificancetotherisktotheprojectmanagement.TextⅠRiskmanagementconcretecontent Theprojectriskmanagementmainlydividesintofollowingseveralsteps:Theriskrecognition,thequalitative/quotariskanalysis,theriskshouldtoplantheestablishmentandtheriskmonitoring.1.riskrecognitions Theriskrecognition,isrefersdistinguishesandrecordspossiblyhastheadverseeffecttotheprojectthefactor.Becausetheprojectisindevelopsinunceasinglythechangeprocess,thereforetheriskrecognitionalsopassesthroughintheentireprojectimplementationentireprocess,butisnotmerelytheprojectinitialstage[1].Theriskrecognitionisnotthedisposablework,butneedmoresystems,crosswisethought.Possessesnearlyabouttheprojectplanandtheinformationallpossiblytakestheriskrecognitionthebasis,likeprojectprogressandcostplan,workdecompositionstructure,projectorganizationalstructure,projectscope,similarprojecthistoricalinformationandsoon[2]. Needstopayattention,allrisksallmaycarryonthemanagementbynomeansthroughtheriskrecognition.Theriskrecognitiononlycandiscovertheknownrisk(forexample:Intheknownprojectorganizationsomememberabilitycannotsatisfytherequestcompletely)ortheknownunknownrisk(known-unknown,namely"eventnameknown",like"customersidepersonnelparticipatesindynamicsbeinginsufficient");Beforebutcertainrisks,asaresultoftheprojectdistinctivequality,notimpossibletooccurinitknowinadvance(unknown-unknown,namelyunknown-unknownrisk).Text2.qualitative/quotariskanalysis Thelatentriskquantitydistinguisheswhichthroughtheriskrecognitionprocessareverymany,buttheselatentriskstotheprojecttheinfluencearevarious."Theriskanalysis"namelythroughtheanalysis,thecomparison,theappraisalandsooneachway,todeterminedvariousriskstheimportance,sortstotheriskandappraisesittotheprojectpossibleconsequence,thuscausestheprojecttoimplementthepersonneltobepossibletoconcentratethemainenergyinthefewinnumbermainrisk,thusenabletheprojecttheoverallrisktobeundertheeffectivecontrol. Theriskanalysismainlymayusethemethodincludes:Riskprobability/influenceappraisalmatrix,sensitiveanalysis,simulationandsoon.Whencarriesontheaboveanalysis,mainlypaysattentiontofollowingseveralriskfactor: Riskprobability:Namelytheriskeventoccurspossiblepercentageexpression.Thisnumeralis,liketheexpertwhoobtainsthroughthesubjectivejudgmentappraises,theintervieworthebasisbeforesimilarprojecthistoricalinformation. Riskinfluence:Namelytheriskhaspossiblytheinfluencesizewhichcreatestotheproject.Thiskindofinfluenceispossiblyinthetime,possiblyisinthecost,alsoispossiblyothervariousaspects. Riskvalue(requiredvalueEMV):Theriskvalue=riskprobability*riskinfluence,istotherisktheinfluencemostdirectappraisalwhichcreatestotheproject,itsoverallevaluationprobabilitywithhasaffectedtwoaspectsthefactors.Text3.risksshouldplantheestablishment Theriskshouldlieintotheplangoalthroughtheformulationcorrespondingmeasure,comestobesupposedtotheriskthethreatwhichpossiblycreatestotheproject[3].Mostoftenusesshouldtothreatseveralmeasuresare:Thecircumvention,reduces,theshift,accepts.Thecircumvention,namelyeliminatesthisriskthroughtheeliminationriskorigin. Reduces,namelythroughtakesthemeasuretoreduce"theriskprobability"or"theriskinfluence",thusachievedreducestheriskvaluetheresult[4];Theshift,soontheriskshiftstoanotherside,likepurchaseinsurance,subpackageandsoon; Accepts,namelydoesnottakethemeasuretothisrisk,andacceptsresultwhichitcreates,oroccursafterthisriskusesthecontingencyplantocarryonprocessingagain.Selectswhatmethodtocomespecificallytobesupposedtosomerisk,isdecidedinthisriskvalue(EMV),planstoadoptshouldtothemeasurepossiblecost,theprojectmanagementpersonneltreattheriskthemanner(utilityfunction)thetypeandsoonvariousaspects,cannotbegenerallyspoken. Theriskshouldbeaimsattherisktotheplanwhichdistinguishestocarryon;Regardingtheunknownrisk,notimpossibletochooseinadvancetheformulationcorrespondingtobesupposedtoplanorthecontingencyplan,therefore,maystockpileusingthemanagementshouldberight.Text4.riskmonitoringTheriskmonitoringmainlyincludesfollowingseveralaspectstheduty: 1)Carryingonintheprocessintheprojecttotrackhasdistinguishedtherisk,themonitoringremainingriskanddistinguishesthenewrisk:Alongwiththeprojectimplementationaswellastheriskshouldtothemeasureexecution,eachkindtheinfluencefactorbeintheprocesstotheprojectwhichchangesunceasingly,therefore,needsintheentireprojectprocess,thetimesurveillanceriskdevelopmentandthechangesituation,determinedfollowsthenewriskwhichcertainrisksvanishingcomesandformulatesthecorrespondingprocessingmeasure[5]. 2)Guaranteedtheriskshouldtotheplanexecutionandappraisedtheriskshouldtoplancarryouttheeffect.Theappraisalmethodmaybetheprojectcycle(stage)thenaturalreview,theachievementsappraisalandsoon. 3)"Accepts"tothesharp-edgedrisktherisktakesthesuitableflexiblemeasure.Throughtheriskmonitoringprocess,theprojectpersonnelrenewstheprojectrisktabulationcontinually,andthroughtherepetitionabovevariousstepsguaranteedtheprojectriskisatthecontrolledconditionthroughout.endeavor vt.&vi.嘗試，試圖；盡力，竭力；n.努力，盡力simultaneously adv.同時(shí)地；齊；一齊manifest vt.顯示，證明；使顯現(xiàn)；adj.明白的，明顯的；n.貨單，旅客名單recognitionrisk 識(shí)別風(fēng)險(xiǎn)appraisalrisk 評(píng)估風(fēng)險(xiǎn)crosswise adj.&adv.交叉的（地）latentrisk 潛在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)appraisalmatrix 評(píng)價(jià)矩陣elimination n.排除；除去；根除；淘汰circumvention n.規(guī)避，逃避(規(guī)則或限制)contingency n.意外事故，偶發(fā)事件；可能性，偶然性stockpile n.（原料等的）儲(chǔ)備，準(zhǔn)備急用的備用原料或物資，貯存；資源，富源，礦藏量；surveillance n.盯梢，監(jiān)督；[法]管制，監(jiān)視NewWordsandPhrasesNotes（1）Becausetheprojectisindevelopsinunceasinglythechangeprocess,thereforetheriskrecognitionalsopassesthroughintheentireprojectimplementationentireprocess,butisnotmerelytheprojectinitialstage. 由于項(xiàng)目處于不斷發(fā)展變化的過(guò)程中，因此風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別也貫穿于整個(gè)項(xiàng)目實(shí)施的全過(guò)程,而不僅僅是項(xiàng)目的開始階段。（2）Possessesnearlyabouttheprojectplanandtheinformationallpossiblytakestheriskrecognitionthebasis,likeprojectprogressandcostplan,workdecompositionstructure,projectorganizationalstructure,projectscope,similarprojecthistoricalinformationandsoon. 幾乎所有關(guān)于項(xiàng)目的計(jì)劃與信息都可能作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別的依據(jù)，如項(xiàng)目進(jìn)度及成本計(jì)劃、工作分解結(jié)構(gòu)、項(xiàng)目組織結(jié)構(gòu)、項(xiàng)目范圍、類似項(xiàng)目的歷史信息等。（3）Theriskshouldlieintotheplangoalthroughtheformulationcorrespondingmeasure,comestobesupposedtotheriskthethreatwhichpossiblycreatestotheproject. 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)計(jì)劃的目的在于通過(guò)制定相應(yīng)的措施，來(lái)應(yīng)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)對(duì)項(xiàng)目可能造成的威脅。Notes（4）Reduces,namelythroughtakesthemeasuretoreduce"theriskprobability"or"theriskinfluence",thusachievedreducestheriskvaluetheresult. 減輕，即通過(guò)采取措施降低“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)概率”或“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)影響”,從而達(dá)到降低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)值的結(jié)果。（5）Carryingonintheprocessinth