MorganstanleyAsiaPacificInsightMorganStanleyAsiaLimited+EquityAnalyst+8522239-7821Sheng.Zhong@+8522239-7821EquityAnalyst+8522239-1118Jinlin.Wang@+8522239-1118EquityAnalyst+8522848-6502Lillian.Lou@+8522848-6502EquityAnalyst+8522239-7689Andy.Meng@+8522239-7689EquityAnalyst+8522848-1982Tim.Hsiao@+8522848-1982EquityAnalyst+8522239-7834Hildy.Ling@+8522239-7834ResearchAssociate+8522848-7107Serena.Chen@+8522848-7107ResearchAssociate+8523963-3180Carlos.Chai@+8523963-3180ChinaIndustrialsChinaIndustrialsAsiaPacific2MorganstanleyAsiaPacificInsightGeneralization/FlexibilityGeneralization/FlexibilityWheeled-basedAMR2010-20252025-2030TaskAutomationIntelligence-enhancedAdvancedIntelligenceGeneralizedIntelligenceFixedtaskautomationAGI,generalizationAGVsAMRsWheeled-basedHumanoidMorganstanleyMorganstanleyGlobalRobotMarketSize(US$'bn)2019-24CAGR:17%12210692806456201920202021202220232024TraditionalindustrialrobotCobotMobilerobotServicerobotOtherspecializedrobotDronewillshowsolidgrowthastheChinaRobotMarketSizevs.25-28eCAGR100%80%60%40%20%0%Note:BubblesizerepresentsmarketHumanoidrobotsizeHumanoidrobotCobotMobilerobotServicerobotDroneTraditionalDroneOtherspecializedrobotOtherspecializedrobot05101520252024TAM(US$'bn)adoptionofintelligentroboChinaRobotMarketvs.Global(US$'bn)1501209060300ChinaRobotMarket2025-28eCAGR:23%2019202020212022202320242025e2026e2027e2028eChinaGlobal(ex.China)China%ofglobalChinaComponentTAMMotor13.2%Others26.1%Harmonicreducer26.1%12.6%3.9%12.6%26.9%4.1%RVreducer26.9%4.1%3.0%2.7%3.0%16.9%Controller17.1%16.8%17.1%8.5%Battery8.5%5.9%5.0%16.9%5.9%5.0%Vision8.6%InnercircleVision8.6%Innercircle:2024Outtercirlce:2028e6.2%5.6%MorganStanleyResearch34CompanyIntegratorTickerCategoryMSRatingMSRatingTPLCYUp/DownsideLastcloseLCYMktCapUS$(mn)30DADVUS$(mn)P/E(x)P/B(x)2025E2026E2025E2026EInovance300124.SZIndustrialrobot/servo/controllerZhong,ShengOverweight77.020.7%6424,01533.7x28.4x5.4x4.7xEstun002747.SZIndustrialrobot/servo/controllerZhong,ShengUnderweight(33.2%)2,34948252.1x167.8x9.6x9.2xMidea0300.HKIndustrialrobotLou,LillianOverweight92.024.5%7475,8145511.5x10.6x2.1x2.0xEhangHoldingsEH.OeVTOLHsiao,TimOverweight30.080.2%1,19726-189.6x10.9x10.3xXiaomi1810.HKCleaningrobotMeng,AndyOverweight62.019.3%52171,7371,06434.4x25.8x5.5x4.5xRoborock688169.SSCleaningrobotLing,HildyOverweight281.032.0%2135,4796314.7x12.0x2.7x2.3xEcovacsRobotics603486.SSCleaningrobotLing,HildyEqual-Weight61.015.9%534,2183819.4x16.3x3.5x3.0xEfort688165.SSIndustrialrobotNotcovered261,867512,570.0x642.5x7.7x7.6xDobot2432.HKCobotNotcovered572,925--22.6x22.6xUbtech9880.HKHumanoidNotcovered794,41879--27.0x41.1xComponentsHorizonrobotics9660.HKChipsHsiao,TimOverweight52.6%711,570209----ShanghaiBochu688188.SSMotioncontrolsystemWang,ChelseaOverweight152.99.6%5,60237.4x29.0x6.8x6.3xLeaderdrive688017.SSHarmonicreducerZhong,ShengEqual-Weight138.016.3%3,02666281.0x216.0x5.9x5.8xShuanghuan002472.SZRVreducerZhong,ShengOverweight43.039.5%313,5954421.7x18.5x2.6x2.2xHengliHydraulic601100.SSScrewZhong,ShengOverweight99.044.5%6912,7938333.8x29.2x5.3x4.8xHesaiGroupHSAI.OLiDARHsiao,TimEqual-Weight23.014.6%202,7198163.7x26.0x4.5x3.9xCATL300750.SZBatteryLu,Jack---248158,405775----WuxiXinjie603416.SSServo/controllerNotcovered531,1702825.2x20.6x3.0x2.7xRoboSense2498.HKLiDARNotcovered321,97549-175.2x4.8x4.7xOrbbec688322.SSVisionNotcovered502,79244179.0x74.4x6.6x6.0xKeliSensor603662.SSSensorNotcovered632,4785852.4x43.0x6.1x5.5xMorganstanleyMorganstanleyMorganStanleyResearch56MorganstanleyMorganstanleyMorganStanleyResearch78KUKAGeek4cuparrotyunEAbMorganStanleyResearch9 140,000CAGR140,000CAGR2020-24TraditionalindustrialrobotCobotMobilerobotServicerobotDroneHumanoidrobotTotal13%24%34%9%24%17%-122,321120,000122,321120,000100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000106,03191,827100,00080,00060,00040,00020,000106,03191,82780,46063,94455,675-201920202021202220232024eTraditionalindustrialrobotCobotMobilerobotServicerobotOtherspecializedrobotDroneHumanoidrobotMorganstanleyMorganstanley10120,000100,00020,000-CAGR2020-24CAGR2025-28TraditionalindustrialrobotTraditionalindustrialrobotCobotMobilerobotServicerobotDroneHumanoidrobotTotal16%18%34%46%35%35%35%19%25%21%20%-88%20%23%34,98430,27523,74318,955201920202021202220232024e2025euTraditionalindustrialrobotaCobotuMobilerobotaServicerobotuOtherspecializedrobotaDroneaHumanoidrobotMotors,controllers,andbatterieshavethehighestgrowthpotewithbettermobilityandadaptabMorganstanleyMorganstanleyMorganStanleyResearch11US$mn2024TAM2028TAMCAGRMotor5,07911,98024%Harmonicreducer1,6393,58822%RVreducer1,2042,49020%Controller6,79715,24422%Vision3,3987,76923%Forcesensor1,9995,08126%Lidar2,3705,64124%Battery6,88215,34622%Others10,81523,72022%Total40,18390,85923%MorganstanleyMorganstanley12ChinaTAMChinaTAM2024TAM%ofglobalCAGR(2024-2028e)ChinaUS$11bnc.47%US$21bn18%(US$bn)219997656201920202021202220232024e2025e2026e2027e2028eChinamarketLocalizationrateinChina72%73%70%28%27%30%34%44%201920202021202220232024ChinesebrandsForeignbrandsAbilityRatingAbilityRatingSafetyrequirementAdapabilityKeyDownstreamApplicationsAuto?Loading/unloadinglargeparts?Automaticwelderingandcoating?Autopartassembly ConsumerElectronics?High-precisionassembly?Screwlocking,testingandlabeling?PCB/displayautomaticinspectionMetalProcessing?Loadingandunloadingmaterial?Laserandplasmacutting?GrindingandpolishingLogistics&Warehousing?Palletizinganddepalletizing?Fastsoringofgoods?MaterialhandlingandhaulingEmergingApplications?Newenergy,food,beverage,plastic,chemical,pharmaceuticalandothersinhighcleanlinessenvironmentStrength.Highprecisionandefficiencytoperformhighlyrepetitivetasks.Highpayloadcapacitytohandleheavyobjects.Highadaptabilitytohazardousenvironments.CosteffectiveinlongtermbylowerlaborcostandlowermaterialwasteWeakness.Higherinitialcapexandmaintenancecost,requiringskilledoperators.Largeworkingspaceandfixedmountingrequired.Inadequateflexibilitytoperformcomplexandfineoperations.Limitedtopre-programmedtaskswithlowintelligencelevelMorganstanleyMorganstanleyMorganStanleyResearch13market–similartothe90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%0%9%6%6%9%6%6%7%7%6%6%8%7%8%7%7%7%8%28%23%27%28%23%21%21%21%201920202021202220232024ElectronicsLithiumbatterySolarMedicalSemiconductorAutopartsFoodandbeverageAutoelectricsWarehouseandlogisticsOthersMetalproductsAutoOEMHomeapplianceSemiconductor14growthoutperformedFanucABBFanucABBYaskawaEPSONKukaOtherforeignbrands100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%10%10%8%10%8%9%13%7%7%8%8%13%7%7%8%8%7%15%4%10%11%0%201920202021202220232024OtherdomesticbrandsYaskawaEffortFanucOtherdomesticbrandsYaskawaEffortFanucEstunKukaKawasakiOtherforeignbrandsOtherdomesticbrandsEPSONDeltaElectronicsMitsubishiMorganstanleyMorganstanleyMorganStanleyResearch15ChinaTAMCobotCobotsaredesignedtointeractandcollaboratedirectlywithChinaTAMCobotCobotsaredesignedtointeractandcollaboratedirectlywithhumansinsharedworkspaces,oftenequippedwithsafetydetectors.2024TAM%ofglobal2028eTAMCAGR(2024-2028e)ChinaUS$0.4bnc.28%US$1.7bn46%(US$bn)0.10.1201920202021202220232024e2025e2026e2027e2028eChinaLocalizationrateinChina8%14%20%35%44%92%80%86%56%91%65%9%201920202021202220232024ChinesebrandsForeignbrandsAdapabilityKeyDownstreamApplicationsManufacturing?Loading/unloadingmaterials?Welding,gluing,qualityinspection?High-precisionassemblyLogistics&Warehousing?Loadingandunloadingmaterial?Ordersortingandpackaging?QualityinspectionHealthcare?Sugicalassistance?Labautomation?Precisedeliveryofdrugs/suppliesRetail&CommercialService?Restocking,vending,distributing?Kitchenassistance?Check-outassistanceEmergingApplications?Education?Scientificresearch&development?Newenergyandfoodprocessing,etcStrength.Highsafety,canworkalongsidehumanswithbuilt-incollisiondetection.Easeofprogramming,suitableforquickdeploymentandsetup.Highflexibility,suitableforsmall-batchandmulti-productproduction.Lowinitialcapex(c.Rmb150-500k)andmaintenancecostcomparedtoindustrialrobotsWeakness.Limitedpayloadcapacity,unsuitableforheavyindustries.Slowermovementspeedthanindustrialrobottoensuresafetyofhuman.Limitedinhandlinghighprecisionandcomplextasks.LowresistancetohazardousenvironmentsMorganstanleyMorganstanley16JAKATechmanRobotOtherdomesticbrandsOtherforeignbrandsMorganstanleyMorganstanleyMorganStanleyResearch17MobileRobotOverviewChinaTAMUnmannedvehiclescapableofnavigating,ChinaTAMUnmannedvehiclescapableofnavigating,planningpathsandavoidingobstaclesautonomouslyKeyTypes111111(US$bn)9754321201920202021202220232024e2025e2026e2027e2028eUnmannedvehiclesthatmovealongpre-setguidancepathAbilityRatingBoMKeyAbilityRatingBoMKeyPlayersChina-AGVSafetyrequirementExecutivecapabiliyStabilityMobilityAdapabilityInteractiveCapabilityStructuralStructuralparts10%Steering20%Battery15%Navigation&Controlsystem20%Safetysystem5%Sensing30%Propulsion&KeyDownstreamApplicaKeyDownstreamApplicationsLogistics&WarehousingManufacturing?Materialdeliveryto?Co-opwithcobotiHealthcare&Elderlycare?Precisedeliveryofdrugs/sRetail&Hospitality?AutonomousstoresoperationEmergingApplicationsProsPros&ConsStrength.Autonomousnavigationwithdynamicpathplanning.Highversailityfortransport,inspectionordelivery.Scalablewithmulti-robotcoordinationWeakness.Challengingtooperateinunstructuredterrains.Shortbatterylife.PotentialcollisionswithobjectsorpeopleMorganstanleyMorganstanley18unmannedforklifttodrive80,00060,00040,00020,000-CAGR2020-24CAGRCAGR2020-24UnmannedforkliftTotal9%62%22%12%11%23%24%8%60%50%40%30%20%20182019202020212022202320242025e2026e2027eAGVAMRUnmannedforkliftTotaly-y(RHS)12%Others15%WarehouseLogsitics2%Chemical4%12%Others15%WarehouseLogsitics12%Solar4%Medical4%Metal12%Solar11%Electronics5%11%Electronics6%AutoOEM9%LithilumBatteryLithilumBatteryparts7%Semi15%Others18%WarehouseLogsitics18%WarehouseLogsitics3%Semi3%Medical12%Electronics3%Home12%Electronics5%Metalprocessing9%Solar9%Lithilum8%Auto9%Lithilum8%AutoBatteryparts7%AutoOEM16%WarehouseLogsitics27%Others11%LithilumBattery1%Semi9%Electronics2%9%Electronicsprocessing3%AutoOEM9%Solar3%9%Solar7%Autoparts6%Food7%Autoparts6%Food&beverage3%ChemicalMorganStanleyResearch19iRayple(華?？萍?41%iRayple(華?？萍?Quicktron(快倉智能)Others14%Hikrobot14%Hikrobot8%IPLUSMOBOT(迦智科技)LanxinTech(藍芯科技)8%43%Youibot(優(yōu)艾智合)43%7%LingdongTech(靈動科技)Standard(斯坦德)7%6%5%SEERRobotics(仙工智能)iRayple(華?？萍?6%5%5%Kuka5%4%4%4%4%4%HikrobotHangcha22%iRayple(華睿科技)AnhuiHeli48%9%MultiwayRobotics(勱微機器人)9%JINGSONG(井松智能)7%SuzhouAGV(艾吉威)4%3%Others4%3%3%3%MorganstanleyMorganstanley20KeyPlayersAgricultureCommercial&FamilyserviceKeyPlayersAgricultureCommercial&FamilyserviceChinaTAMKeyTypesChinaTAM2024TAM%ofglobal2028eCAGR(2024-2028e)ChinaUS$10bnc.32%US$24bn25%(US$bn)24202074596201920202021202220232024e2025e2026e2027e2028eMedical&HealthcarewecoAbilityAbilityRatingStabilityMobilitySafetyMobilityrequirementExecutiveAdapabilitycapabiliyAdapabilityInteractiveCapabilityKeyDownstreamApplicationsCommercialService?Reception,shoppingguidance?Fooddelivery,cleaning,patrol?LuggagehandlingFamilyervice?Cleaning,petcare,gardening?Patrolandsurveillance?ElderlycareandhealthcareMedical&Healthcare?Surgicalassistance?Precisedeliveryofdrugs/supplies?DisinfectionandcleaningAgriculture?Farming(spraying,seeding,etc.)?Cropmaturitydetection?LivestockmonitoringandfeedingEmergingApplications?EducationandR&D?SMEsincommercialservices,retail?Newenergyandfoodprocessing,etc.Pros&ConsStrengthWeakness.Replacerepetitive,lowvalue-addedandhigh-risklaborworkandreducehumanerror.Higherinitialcapexandmaintenancecostthantraditionalmachineries.Improveproductivityandprecision,whilelowerhumanlaborworkload.Lowgeneralization,servicerobotusuallydesignedforspecificscenarioorsingletask.Optimizedecision-makingandoperationbymulti-modalsensorandAIalgorithm.Possibleethicalissues(e.g.privatedataleakage,ambiguousliabilityofsurgicalincident)MorganStanleyResearch21Uditech(優(yōu)地科技)MorganstanleyMorganstanley22ChinaTAMKeyTypesChinaTAM2024TAM%ofglobal2028eTAMCAGRChinaUS$19bnc.44%US$40bn20%(US$bn)403327238201920202021202220232024e2025e2026e2027e2028eChinaDownstreambreakdownDownstreambreakdownAbilityRatingAbilityRatingStabilityMobilitySafetyMobilityrequirementAdapabilityExecutivecapabiliyAdapabilityInteractiveCapabilityKeyDownstreamApplicationsSurveying&Mapping?Datacollection?Terrainmodeling?UrbanplanningAgriculture?Weathermodification?Farming(spraying,seeding,etc.)?CropandlivestockmonitoringPatrol&PublicSafety?High-altitudepatrolandinspection?Bordersurveillance?SearchandrescueEntertainment?Aerialphotography?FPV(First-personView)flying?RecreationandeducationEmergingApplications?Remotearealogistics(mountain,island,etc.),UrbanAirMobility(UAM),wildlifemonitor,ecologyrestoration,etc.Pros&ConsStrengthWeakness.Strongdataacquisitioncapabilitiesbycarryingmultiplesensors.Limitedpayloadcapacityandflightendurance,subjecttobatterytechnologyandsize.Highmaneuverabilityandflexibilitytoflyatvariousaltitudesandangles.Susceptibletoweatherconditions.Rapiddeploymentandresponse.Highregulatoryandairspacerestrictions.Oftenbattery-powered,withlessnoiseandlowercarbonemissions.Skilledpilotsmayberequiredtoensuresafetyforwardflight.MorganstanleyMorganstanleyMorganStanleyResearch23MorganstanleyMorganstanley24MorganstanleyMorganstanleyMorganStanleyResearch25ChinaTAMHumanoidRobotHuman-likeappearanceandinteractioncapabilitiesChinaTAMHumanoidRobotHuman-likeappearanceandinteractioncapabilities2025eTAM%ofglobal2030eTAMCAGR(2025-2030e)ChinaUS$0.3bnc.11%US$3.4bnSafetyrequirementExecutiveSafetyrequirementExecutivecapabiliy(US$bn)4127621360.70.5AbilityRatingBoMChip+AbilityRatingBoMChip+softwareStabilityMobilityAdapabilityInteractiveCapabilityKeyPlayersChinaGlobalNewstart-upsunlTReeManufacturingcompaniesTechcompaniesruOOMetaa30n身openAlKeyDownstreamApplicationsManufacturing?Materialhandling?Labeling,qualityinspection?AssemblylinecollaborationHealthcare&ElderlyCare?Sugicalassistance?Precisedeliveryofdrugs/supplies?DisinfectionandcleaningRetail&Hospitality?Reception,shoppingguidance?Fooddelivery,cleaning,patrol?DisabilityassitanceFamilyService?Cleaning,petcare,gardening?Patrolandsurveillance?ElderlycareandhealthcareEmergingApplications?EducationandR&D?Entertainment?AgriculturePros&ConsStrengthWeakness.Highadaptabilitytoenvironmentsbuiltforpeople.Highertechnologybarriersthanotherrobotsinareaslikebalance,bipedallocomotion,.Highlevelofgeneralizationandintelligencetohandle'long-tail'cornercasesperception,autonomousdecision-makingandstability.Highversatility,withhuman-likehandsandfingers.Intelligencelevelcurrentlylimitedbyexpensivemotiondatacollection.Naturalhuman-robotinteraction,easilycollaborateswithpeople.CurrentlyinferiortospecializedrobotsinmostindustrialandcommercialscenariosMorganstanleyMorganstanley26GlobalHumanoidRevenueAnnualHumanoidRevenue(US$bn)5,0003,0001,000-1,0004,7033,1721,216242030e3242030e32025e2035e2040e2050e2045e2035e2040e2050e1,200,0001,000,000800,000600,000400,000200,0000GlobalHumanoidStock(k's)HighIncomeCountries(Ex-USA)UpperMiddleIncomeCountries(Ex-China)LowerMiddleIncomeCountriesLowIncomeCountriesChinaUSAGlobalHumanoidStock(k's)ChinaHumanoidAnnualSalesVolume('k)54,32545,97522,16711472,10911472025e2030e2035e2040e2045e2050eCommercialHumanoidsHouseholdHumanoidsAverageHumanoidSellingPrice(US$k)02025e2030e2035e2040e2045e2050eChinaHumanoidAnnualRevenue(US$bn)0302025e2030e2035e2040e2045e2050eMorganStanleyResearch2780%1,60080%1,40070%1,20070%1,00060%80050%60050%40%20040%19601964196819721976198019841988199219962000200420082012201620202024mmChina'sworking-agepopulationChinatotalpopulationAs%oftotalpopulation1809%8%1809%8%7%6%5%4%3%2%0%7.6%7.6%7.8%7.6%7.6%1606.4%6.2%1406.4%6.2%120100806040200CommercialservicesMiningManufacturingUtilitiesConstructionAverageSecondaryCommercialservices20132024CAGRfasterthanthetotal30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%198019831986198919921995199820012004200720102013201620192022CPIPPI28constantMorganStanleyResearch