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OurNewWorld2020
BOND
April2020
1
B()ND
April17,2020
Weareinanenvironmentthelikesofwhichwehavenotexperiencedbefore...
Inthisinformalnote,wehavecompiledobservabletrendsthathelpformourviewsofthepresentandshouldprovideinsightsintothefuture.
Relevantreferencepointsfrom
InternetTrends
plus
USA,Inc.
canbefoundat
.
–Mary,Noah,Mood,Juliet,Daegwon,Paul&theBONDteam
OurNewWorld(Outline)
1)Covid-19=Shock+Aftershocks
2)Viruses+Microbes=Consistent+PeriodicAgentsofDisaster
3)CreativeInnovators(Globally+Together)WillRiseAbovetheVirus
4)RapidChangesDriveGrowthinBothDirections…
?Scientists/Engineers/DomainExpertsGetBackMoreSeatsatTheTables
?Work-LifeRe-Balanced
?DigitalTransformationAccelerating
?RiseofOn-DemandServicesasEconomicGrowthDriverContinues(forConsumers+Workers)
?Government’sRoleinStabilizing/StimulatingEconomy(&Jobs)MustBeEnabledbyModernTechnologies
?2020=Step-FunctionYearforTechnology+Healthcare?
?TraditionalSports=PostCovid-19EvolutionProvidesReal-TimeEngagementCluesforOtherBusinesses
5)‘TheWorldJustDoesn’tEndThatOften’=WeWillGetThroughThis…ButLifeWillBeDifferent…
OurNewWorld
1)Covid-19=Shock+Aftershocks
Earthquakesarelikehigh-speedzippersthatripopentheearth–theycanrun138milesinaminute1astheSanFranciscoEarthquakedidin1906.Thebigonestransformthewaypeoplelive.
TheshockfromCovid-19’shigh-speedspread/impacthassimilarities-asof4/16/20,inthe94dayssincethefirst
knowncasesoutsideofChinawerereported,2.1MMpeoplehavetestedpositivegloballyand145Khavedied.93%oftheworld’s193countrieshavereportedcases,andgovernments’onlychoicehasbeentoimposeunprecedented
socialcontrolpolicieswiththehopeof‘flatteningthecurve.’
Covid-19=
RapidGlobalization
NumberofCountriesWithConfirmed
CommunityCases
NumberofCountries
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1/231/302/62/132/202/273/53/123/193/264/24/9
N=1125512274794123149175
Week(Starting1/23,WeekofChina'sLockdown)
)NDSource:Internalanalysisasof4/13/20,JohnHopkinsUniversity,Worldometer
Thetop20countriesbyGDPhaveallimplementedsomeformofsocialdistancingand/orquarantine–inaggregate,thisrepresents80%ofglobalGDPandalargeportionofthepopulation.Covid-19hasupendedourmodernlivesinwayswe’rejuststartingtounderstand.
Withanabruptshock,manyofus–otherthanthosewhoareinfectedorservingthoseinneedofcare–haveshiftedfromnavigatingthe‘ratrace’tomovingatarelativesnail’space.Wearelivinginahunkereddownworldthatinmanywaysseemsmoreattunedtolifefromanotherera–butin24x7streamingglobalcolor.
Inthefaceofanenemyonourshores,Americahassteppedup.Neighborsarelookingoutforeachother.
Philanthropicinitiatives(oftenlocal)arerollingouttoprovidestopgaphelptothoseinneeduntilmoresustainable
solutionsareoptimized.And,over18MM2healthcareworkersaretirelesslyandheroicallyservingonourfrontlines.
Intheaftershock,theeconomyhasalsogroundtoahalt,andjoblossesarerisingrapidly.Atcurrentcourseand
speed,inafewmonthsunemploymentcouldreachlevelsnotseensincetheGreatDepressionalmostacenturyago.NearlyoneinfourAmericanworkersareemployedinthemostaffectedface-to-facejobslikefoodservice,hospitality,retailandotherservices3.Asofonemonthago,oneinfiveAmericanshadalreadylostworkinghoursorjobs4.
Seventy-threepercentofAmericanshaveindicatedtheirhouseholdincomehasbeenreduced5.
2
1U.S.GeologicalSurvey(USGS)–TheNorthernCaliforniaEarthquake,4/18/1906.8,300milesperhourillustrativelyconvertedtomilesperminute.
2CDC.3PewResearch3/27/20.4NPR/PBSNewsHour/Maristpollon3/17/20.5FT-Petersonpoll,3/24/20–3/27/20.Note:ThroughoutweuseCovid-19torefertoboththedisease,andthevirus(SARS-CoV-2)thatcausesthedisease.
3
ComparingU.S.unemploymentandthestockmarketofthepast43tradingdayswithSeptember1929–December1936(theGreatDepression),onefindsterrifyinglysimilartrendsinstockmarketmovementswhiletoday’s
unemploymentlevelsarespikingatamateriallyfasterclip.Similarshockshavetakenplaceinotheradvancedeconomies,amplifyingtheknock-oneffectstotradethatmayworsentheglobaldownturn.
Unemploymentvs.StockMarketTrends=
2020(2/12–Current)vs.1929–1936
DowJonesIndustrialAverageIndexedReturns
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
USAUnemploymentRatevs.
DowJonesIndustrialAverage(Indexed)
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
–
USAUnemploymentRate(%)
>10%(Q2:20E)
4.4%
(3/20)
9/1/299/1/309/1/319/1/329/1/339/1/349/1/359/1/36
DJIAReturns(Peak9/3/1929Indexed)
UnemploymentRate(1929-1936)
——DJIAReturns(Peak2/12/2020Indexed)UnemploymentRate(2020)
B)ND)Source:St.LouisFRED,BLS,CBO(includingQ2:20Eunemploymentprojectionfrom4/2/20),CapitalIQasof4/14/20.
Recentgovernment-imposedcontainmentactionshavenecessitatedgovernment-fundedlending/liquidity/stimulus
programsatunprecedentedspeed,scope,scaleandcomplexity.Initsefforttostabilizeandstimulatetheweakeningeconomy,theU.S.governmenthascommittedover$2trillioninaidtoconsumersandtheeconomywhiletheFederalReservehascommittedupto$2.3trilliontoexpandanexistingcorporatelendingprogramforsmallandmedium-sizedbusinessesalongwiththepurchaseofmunicipalbonds.Thesenumberswilllikelycontinuetorise.
USACARESAct(2020)=
Largest&FastestStimulusPackageEver
HistoricalUSAStimulusBills($B)
NominalDollars
HistoricalUSAStimulusBills($B)
%GDP
StimulusDollars($B)
InflationAdjustedDollars
$3,000
$1,788
$2,000$2,000
$826
$1,000
$0
NewDeal
(1933-1940)
RecoveryAct
&TARP
(2009)
CARESAct
(2020)
StimulusDollars($B)
$3,000
$2,000
$1,000
$0
$2,000
$1,500
$42
40%
30%
20%
10%
–
CARESAct
(2020)
RecoveryActNewDeal&TARP(1933-1940)
(2009)
MonthstoImplement1st
StimulusPackageFrom
StockMarketPeak
11042
StimulusDollars($B)%ofGDP
Source:St.LouisFRED.2009–2020assumes1.77%annualinflation.1933–2020assumes3.52%annualinflationbasedonCPI.
4
Wehaveahydra-likecrisis–health/economic/psychological–thatoccurredatatimewhenmanythingswere
humming(economicgrowth/consumerspending/employment/wages…)butthereweren’thugemarginsforerror.
PersonalSavingRate=RisingBut8%vs.12%FiftyYearsAgo…Debt-to-Annual-IncomeRatio=23%vs.15%
USAPublicDebt/GDPLevel=
8thHighestvs.MajorEconomies(2018)
PersonalSavingRate&Debt-to-Annual-Income*Ratio
30%
Debt-to-Annual-Income*Ratio
GovernmentDebt Country%ofGDP2018($B)
1)Japan236%$4,971
2)Sudan18641
3)Greece185218
4)Italy1352,084
5)Portugal122241
6)Singapore110364
7)Mozambique10715
8)USA10620,544
9)Cyprus10125
10)Belgium100543
GovernmentDebt Country%ofGDP2018($B)
16)Angola89%$106
17)Brazil871,869
18)Argentina86520
19)UK862,855
20)SriLanka8489
21)Croatia7561
22)Zambia7527
23)Austria74455
24)Pakistan72315
25)Slovenia7054
Ratio,USA
15%
11)France982,77826)Hungary70158
PersonalSavingRate
0%
196919791989199920092019
12)Spain981,419
13)Egypt93251
14)Congo9011
15)Canada901,713
27)India692,719
28)Morocco65118
29)Ireland64382
30)Yemen6327
Source:St.LouisFederalReserveFREDDatabase,USAFederalReserveBank.*Consumerdebt-to-annual-incomeratio=outstandingcreditextendedtoindividualsfor
household,family&otherpersonalexpenditures,excludingloanssecuredbyrealestatevs.averageannualpersonalincome.Personalsavingrate=percentageof
disposablepersonalincome(DPI),frequentlyreferredtoas“thepersonalsavingrate.”(i.e.theannualshareofdisposableincomededicatedtosaving)
Source:IMF2018Estimate,WorldBankGDPdata.
Forcontext,the$4.3trillioningovernmentmonetaryandfiscalresponsesistheequivalentof124%oftheAmericangovernment’srevenuein2019and20%ofGDP.Simplistically,itwouldtaketotaldebt/GDPlevelto127%vs.107%in2019.Thespeckofrelativegoodnewshereisthatinterestratesarenearrecordlowlevelssothenear-termannualcostofthenewdebtwillberelativelylow.
USAIncomeStatement=Expenses>RevenueforYears…
-19%AverageNetMarginOver30Years
USAIncomeStatement
F1989F1994F1999F2004F2009F2014F2019Comments
Revenue($B)
Y/YGrowth
$991
9%
$1,259
9%
$1,827
6%
$1,880
5%
$2,105
(17%)
$3,021
9%
$3,463
4%
+5%Y/Yaverageover25years
IndividualIncomeTaxes*
$446
$543
$879
$809
$915
$1,395
$1,718
Largestdriverofrevenue
%ofRevenue
45%
43%
48%
43%
43%
46%
50%
SocialInsuranceTaxes
$359
$461
$612
$733
$891
$1,023
$1,243
SocialSecurity&Medicarepayrolltax
%ofRevenue
36%
37%
33%
39%
42%
34%
36%
CorporateIncomeTaxes*
$103
$140
$185
$189
$138
$321
$230
Fluctuateswitheconomicconditions
%ofRevenue
10%
11%
10%
10%
7%
11%
7%
Other
$83
$114
$151
$148
$161
$283
$272
Estate&gifttaxes,duties/fees…
%ofRevenue
8%
9%
8%
8%
8%
9%
8%
Expense($B)
$1,144
$1,462
$1,702
$2,293
$3,518
$3,506
$4,448
Y/YGrowth
7%
4%
3%
6%
18%
1%
8%
Entitlement/Mandatory
$486
$717
$900
$1,238
$2,093
$2,098
$2,735
Risenowingtorisinghealthcarecosts+
%ofExpense
42%
49%
53%
54%
60%
60%
61%
agingpopulation
Non-DefenseDiscretionary
$208
$255
$312
$463
$846
$573
$853
Education/lawenforcement/
%ofExpense
18%
17%
18%
20%
24%
16%
19%
transportation/generalgovernment…
Defense
$304
$282
$275
$456
$661
$603
$686
2009increasedrivenbyWaronTerror
%ofExpense
27%
19%
16%
20%
19%
17%
15%
NetInterestonPublicDebt
$169
$203
$230
$160
$187
$229
$375
Recentbenefitofhistoriclowinterest
%ofExpense
15%
14%
14%
7%
5%
7%
8%
Surplus/Deficit($B)($153)($203)$126($413)($1,413)($485)($985)-19%averagenetmargin,1989-2019
NetMargin(%)(15%)(16%)7%(22%)(67%)(16%)(28%)
B()NDSource:CongressionalBudgetOffice,WhiteHouseOfficeofManagementandBudget.
*Individual&corporateincometaxesincludecapitalgainstaxes.Note:USAfederalfiscalyearendsinSeptember.Non-defensediscretionaryincludesfederal
spendingoneducation,infrastructure,lawenforcement,judiciaryfunctions.
5
USATotalFederalDebtas%ofGDP=
@107%&Rising(2019)
USAInterestRates=
NearHistoricLows…TotalFederalDebtatHistoricHigh
TotalFederalDebt%ofUSGDP
EffectiveFederalFundsRate(%)vs.TotalFederalDebt($B)
TotalFederalDebt%ofUSGDP
140%
EffectiveFederalFundsRate(%)-BlueLine
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$0
TotalFederalDebt($B)-BlackShading
40%
80%
20%
120%WWII
100%
60%
0%
19541959196419691974197919841989199419992004200920142019
194019501960197019791989199920092019
Source:St.LouisFRED,OfficeofManagement&Budget.
Source:St.LouisFRED,OfficeofManagement&Budget.
Theseareallbignumbers.Thebiggest/fastestsuchinterventioneverfromWashingtonDC–byalongshot.For
betterorworse,giventhecircumstances,theboosters–orbazookas(atermusedbyHankPaulson,U.S.TreasurySecretary,duringthefinancialcrisisin2008)areneededfortheattempttostabilizeandrestartourrapidly
deterioratingeconomy.
Theselargenumbersmaynotbelargeenough–afterall,oneperson’slostrevenueisalsoanotherperson’slostrevenueandsoonandsoon…aproblematiccascadeonmultipledimensionsthatisstillinitsearlystages.
Weareallparticipatinginanunproventestforfiscalandmonetarypolicyofamagnitudewehavenotexperienced
before.Canarapidresponseofthisscaleusinglotsofcapitalstabilizerapidlydecliningbusinesstrendsandhelpthemresumegrowthinshortorder?Themoneyisonething;humanconfidenceisanother.Wewillknowsoonenough–wesuspectbusinesstrendsinQ3willbebetterthanQ2butthatwillbealowbar…
Keychallengesofthismulti-sidedsituationinclude:
1)Understandingwhenpeoplecansafelyleavetheirhomes,resumesomeversionoftheirformerlives,andrestarttheeconomy…allwhilebalancingprivacyandcivilliberties
2)Ensuringgovernmentfundingefficientlygetsintherighthandsandhelpstheeconomyweatherthesuddenslowdown
3)Helpingbusinessesgraduallygetupandrunningagain,whilemindfulofthepotentialforperiodicshutdowns
4)Ensuringsufficientandcreativewaysforpeopletogetbacktowork(and/orreceivesupport)thatsustainlong-termeconomicgrowth
5)Managinggovernmentdebt–whichunfortunatelyhasriseningoodtimes–sothatthefinancialoverhangdoesnotoverburdenourfuture
2)Viruses+Microbes=Consistent+PeriodicAgentsofDisaster
Thebattleofhumansvs.infectiousdiseasehasbeengoingonforeverandhumanity’sever-increasingproximityistheprimaryfacilitator.Virusesarecommonplace,epicvirusesarerare–thesearethebigonesthatchangedtheworld…
PandemicType#Deaths#Infected
Mortality
RateDurationYearsOrigin
RegionMost
AffectedStoppingMechanism
BubonicPlague
Bacterial
200MM
~333MM
60%
5years
1347-51
China
Europe
Quarantine/SurvivorImmunity
SmallPox
Viral
56MM
~185MM
30%
431years
1520-1951
Europe
Global
Vaccine
SpanishFlu
Viral
40-50MM
~500MM
8%
2years
1918-19
Unknown
Global
Quarantine/SurvivorImmunity
PlagueofJustinian
Bacterial
30-50MM
~80MM
50%
2years
541-542
MiddleEast
Europe
SurvivorImmunity
HIV/AIDS
Viral
25-35MM
~70MM
35%
39years
1981-Present
Africa
Global
Testing/Antivirals
ThirdPlague
Bacterial
12MM
NA
NA
1year
1885
Asia
Asia
Quarantine/SurvivorImmunity
Sources:VisualCapitalist,CDC,H,TIME
Additionalvirusesoverthelastcenturyhavebeenmaterialkillers,alloriginatingoutsideAmerica:AsianFlukilled
1.1MMpeoplein1957-58primarilyinAsia;HongKongFlukilled1MMin1968-70primarilyinAsia;SwineFlukilled200Kin2009-2010globally,Ebolakilled11.3Kin2014-2016inWestAfrica1andSARSkilled8Kpeoplein2003.
Whileotherregions(primarilyAsia)haveexperiencedeasilyspreadviruseswithhighmortalityratesinrecenthistory,America’slastpandemicexperience(atscale)wastheSpanishFluone-hundredyearsago.Unfortunately,3-4
generationsarelongenoughformanypeopletohaveforgottenthepainandtobeill-preparedforthenextattack.
Ourworldhadbecomeincreasinglyporous,handingacoronavirustheperfectsetupforglobalimpact.
Asdigitalconnectivity,airtravel,cross-bordermovementandtradehaverampedsteadilyupward,ourpopulationhasbecomeuntetheredphysically,dartingfromplacetoplacewithlimitedgeographicconstraints.Furthermore,people
havemigratedfromrural,isolatedregionstomoredenselypopulated,connectedurbanareas.
GlobalInternetUsers(2018)=
3.8Bvs.<15MMTwenty-FiveYearsAgo
GlobalAirTravel(2018)=
>4.2BPassengers,+7%Y/Y
InternetUsersvs.Y/YGrowth
GlobalAirPassengers(Millions)
InternetUsers,Global(BlueBar)
4B
2B
0
20%
10%
0%
Y/YGrowth(RedLine)
GlobalAirPassengers(millions)
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Global
FinancialCrisis
WTC
Attacks
GulfWarIRecession
OilShockRecession
DotCom
Bubble
AsianFinancial
Crisis
19901994199619982000200220042006200820102012201420162018
–
1970197419781982198619901994199820022006201020142018
Internetuserdataisasofmid-year.Source:UnitedNations/InternationalTelecommunicationsUnion,USACensusBureau.
PewResearch(USA),ChinaInternetNetworkInformationCenter(China),IslamicRepublicNewsAgency/InternetWorldStats/Bondestimates(Iran),Bond
estimatesbasedonIAMAIdata(India),&APJII(Indonesia).
Source:WorldBank,CLEAR.
6
1CDC,VisualCapitalistandEncyclopediaBritannica.
7
GlobalCross-BorderAirTravel(2018)=
1.4MMArrivals,+6%Y/Y
GlobalCross-BorderTrade(2018)=
$25T@29%ofGlobalGDP
InternationalFlightArrivals(Millions)
Tradeas%ofGlobalGDP
TotalInternationalFlightArrivals(millions)
1,500
1,000
500
–
199519982001200420072010201320162018
%ofGlobalGDP
40%
20%
0%
1960196519701975198019851990199520002005201020152018
Source:WorldBank
Source:WorldBank.
Note:‘WorldTrade’referstotheaverageofImports&Exports(toaccountforgoodsin-transitbetweenyears)forallnations.
GlobalRelativeGDP(Current$)=
China+USARising…EuropeFalling(2018)
GlobalPopulation(2018)=
On-GoingMigrationtoUrbanAreas
GlobalGDPContribution(Current$)
UrbanPopulation(%ofTotalPopulation)
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
UrbanPopulation(%ofTotalPopulation)
USA82%
Europe75%
China59%
World55%
%ofGlobalGDP
40%
40%
24%
22%
26%
20%
16%
7%
3%
6%
4%
3%
0%
2018
196019701980199020002010
USAEuropeChinaIndiaLatinAmerica
–
196019701980199020002010USAChinaWorldEurope
2018
Source:WorldBank(GDPincurrent$).Othercountriesaccountfor~30%ofglobalGDP.
Source:QatalystPartners(March2020)&WorldBank
Allthesetrendssetupavirus’dream–hitchhikeonahumanorsurface,andtravelhundredsofmilesperhouracrosslandandseatogettoawholenewworld.Whenthere,quietlymultiplybeforeanyonecancontainyou.Thevirusis
clever,andithasevolvedperfectlyfortheglobalenvironmentthroughitslongincubationtime,asymptomatictransmissionandsymptomssomildthatmostcarriersjustkeepworkingandmillingabout.
Itsimpactonahumanisatoxiccocktailoftheunpredictable:fromnothing...tosniffles…tocoughing…tobreathingdifficulties…todeath.
Thecapriciousnesssowsfear,notjustoftheinfected,butofeveryhumaninteraction.Itcreatesafeelingofbeinghelplessinawar–withaninvisibleenemy.
Weareallfocusedonthedurationandseverityofourcrisisandwatching/waiting/prayingfortheebbofcoronaviruscasessowecanbegintogooutwithoutfearofinfection.
Thegoodnewsisthatsocialdistancingappearstoworkandgovernmentsaroundtheworldhaveembracedit.Inanunprecedentedandrapidglobalresponse,100%ofthe20largesteconomiesarenowinsomeformoflockdown,with19ofthosecountriestakingactionwithina4-weekwindow.
SocialDistancing=
RapidlyImplementedbyWorld’sLargest20Economies
Countof20LargestEconomieswithSocialDistancing
20
15
10
5
0
TheWorld's20LargestEconomies&Government-MandatedSocialDistance
1/231/302/62/132/202/273/53/123/193/26
N=111112251520
Week(Starting1/23,WeekofChina'sLockdown)
B()NDSource:Internalanalysisasof4/13/20,JohnHopkinsUniversity,Worldometer
Fromtheepidemiologicaldataemergingfromaroundtheworld,wenowknowmoreaboutthisagentofdisaster,muchfasterthaneverbeforeinpandemichistory:
1)Intheabsenceofintervention,Covid-19infectionswillgrowexponentially…
EarlyconsensusisthateachpersoninfectedwithCovid-19willleadto2to3additionalpeoplebecominginfected.Inaworldwheretheaveragepersonphysicallyinteractswith10-15others1perday,therearehundredsof
opportunitiesfortransmissionduringtheinfectiousstageofthedisease.Empirically,thatwasproveninalmosteverycountryaroundtheworld,whereadoublingtimeofeverythreedayswasobservedintheweekspriortosocialdistancing.Thisdoublingtimeiswhatproducedtheearlywarningsofhundredsofmillionsofinfections.
2)Extremesocialdistancemeasureswork...
Afterimplementingcontrolmeasures,countriesconsistentlyseeanimprovementto~6daysofdoublingtimewithintwoweeks,and~11dayswithinthreeweeks.Theearliestcountriestoenterlockdownhavenowhittheirpeak
hospitalizationanddeathrates,approximatelyfourweeksafterimplementingstrictsocialcontrols.Asaresult,
worldwidenewdailycaseslargelystabilizedinAprilandtheworld’scasecountdoublingtimeof~15dayssuggestswemaybenearthepeakofthisoutbreak.
3)Wedon,tknowwhattoexpect6inbetween,...
Weknowthetwoextremes,butwedon’tknowwhatwillhappenwhenwestarttoletdownourguard.Todoso,weneed100%availablediagnostictestingwithmuchfasterturn-around(measuredinminutes,notdays).Weneedthesystemsandthetoolstotakeactiononestepatatime,measuretheimpact,anditeratetofindthemosteffective
waystocontainCovid-19untilwehaveavaccine.
8
1’Mixingpatternsbetweenagegroupsinsocialnetworks’S.Y.DelValleetal./SocialNetworks29(2007)539–554.
9
ImpactofSocialDistancing=
DramaticReductionofExponentialGrowth
DailyNewCases
5-DayTrailingAvg.DailyGrowthRate
DailyNewCases=
LargelyPlateauedinApril
WorldDailyNewCases
100%
80%
120,000
Dailynewcase
growthslowing
100,000
60%
80,000
40%
60,000
20%
40,000
0%
20,000
(20%)
(40%)
0
1/221/292/52/122/192/263/43/113/183/254/14/8
DailyNewCases5-DayTrailingAvg.DailyGrowthRate
Source:Internalanalysisasof4/13/20,JohnHopkinsUniversity,Worldometer
AverageDoublingTimes(Days)DuringVarious
PhasesofLockdown
T0=DateSocialDistancingisImplemented
10.60
5.82
3.74
3.14
T0=LockdownT+7DaysAfterLockdownT+14DaysAfterLockdownT+21DaysAfterLockdown
N=20202017
)NDSource:Internalanalysisasof4/13/20,JohnHopkinsUniversity,Worldometer
DoublingTime=
DramaticImprovementInApril
3-DayTrailingDoublingTime
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
WorldDoublingTimes
HigherNumbers=SlowerSpread
JustChina...under
control
Exponentialgrowthoutside
ofChinaasthevirusspr
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