Future

RisksReport

2025EDITION

AXA2025FUTURERISKSREPORT

Contents

Risks6to941

Risk6.Naturalresourcesandbiodiversity42

Risk7.Macroeconomics43

Opinion:Cracksintheblocks44

Risk8.Energyrisks45

Risk9.Financialstabilityrisks46

Demographics47

Thedemographicproblem:atickingtimebombwithmultipleimpacts48

Thegrowingthreatofhealthcareandpensionsystemcollapse49

Risksundertheradar51

Thefutureofinsurance54

Interview:Pushingtheboundariesofinsurability55

Overview

Risk2.Geopoliticalinstability25

Theenduringthreatofgeopoliticalinstability26

EuropeandUSatatippingpoint27

Opinion:Whyareweseeingaresurgenceininterest

inGeopoliticalRisk?28

AXA’suniqueapproachtogeopoliticalrisks29

Risk3.Cybersecurity30

Agrowingvulnerabilitytocybersecurity31

Thenexusofcyberthreatsandgeopoliticalinstability32

Interview:Cybersecurityatthecrossroadsoftechnology

trustandgeopolitics33

Risk4.AIandbigdata34

AIrisksareevolvingalongsideopportunities35

Interview:Buildingsmartinsurance36

Opinion:Drivingprotectionandresilienceinaneraoftechmistrust37

Risk5.Socialtensions38

Socialtensionsarechallengingauthoritiesanddemocracy39

Addressingwomen'sfeelingofvulnerability40

ForewordfromThomasBuberl3

Executivesummary4

Abouttheresearch7

Globaltop10emergingrisksaccordingtoexpertsin202510

Evolutionoftheexperts’top10futurerisks11

Globaltop10futurerisks:expertsvsgeneralpopulation12

2025expert'srisksrankingsbygeography13

Opinion:Buildingresilienceinafragmentedworld14

Fragmentation15

Aworldofrisingpolarizations16

Fragmentation,trust,anddemocracy17

Opinion:Insurance,thenewseamstressintown18

Risk1.Climatechange19

Climatechangeisincreasinglycrowdedbyotheranxieties20

Theparadoxofclimateconcern:short-termfear

trumpslong-termplanning21

Interview:Knowledgeispower22

ClimateadaptationandresilienceattheheartofAXA23

Opinion:Climatechange,amplifying,

acceleratingandengenderingnewrisks24

AXA2025FUTURERISKSREPORT

Overview

Fragmentation

#1Climate

#2Geopolitical

#3Cybersecurity

#4AIandbigdata

#5Socialtensions

Risk6to9

Demographics

Undertheradar

Thefutureofinsurance

3

FOREWORDfromThomas

Everyerapresentsitsown

challenges.This2025edition

highlightsaworldofrising

polarizationsconfrontingthe

globalizationofrisks.Itquestions

howtocombatourincreasingly

interconnectedcrises.Social

fragmentationismore

thaneverathreattoour

societyswellbeing,fueled

bydemographicchanges,

geopoliticaltensions,

misinformationand,more

indirectly,bykeychallengessuchasclimatechangeand itsrepercussionsnatural

disasters,degradation

ofnaturalresources,

foodshortages.

Thisyear,thereportshowshowthis

polarizationand

thedeclineinsocial andpoliticalcohesiongenerateadditionalthreats.

Whetheritsthecrisisofliberaldemocracyorthegrowing

Inaconstantlyevolvingworld,anticipatingandunderstandingfuturerisksisessentialtobetteraddressthem.Forthepasttwelveyears,AXAhasexploredemergingthreatsandtheirpotentialimpactsinitsFuture

“This2025edition

highlightsaworldofrisingpolarizationsandthe

declineinsocialandpoliticalcohesionthatgenerates

additionalthreats.”

ThomasBuberl,CEOofAXA

RisksReport,fosteringacollectivereflectionandacalltoactiontobuildasaferandmoresustainablefuture.

Buberl

distrustinpublicauthoritiesabilitytoeffectivelymanagecrises,

thefeelingofvulnerabilityisatitspeak,bothamongexpertsandthegeneralpopulation.

Atthedawnofthisglobalshift

whereourframeworksarebeingquestioned,weneedstrategic

thinking,collectiveleadership,

andinnovativeideas.Wemust

co-buildaclearvisionofthefuture,deepencooperationincriticalriskareas,andcreateeffectiveagile

frameworks.Globalchallenges

suchasclimatechange,risksrelatedtoartificialintelligence,orfinancialinstability—requiremorestructuredinternationalcooperationandenhanced

regulation.Wehavethemeans.

Public-privatesectorcooperationisvitaltoleverageboththe

experienceandtheexpertiseofbusinessesincontinuouslyadapting,managingrisks,

andrespondingtocrises.

Inthiscomplexenvironment,

insurersalsoplayacrucialrole,

notonlyinpreventingand

mitigatingrisks,butalsoin

helpingtobuildamorecohesive

andresilientsociety.AtAXA,we

arefullycommittedtoactingfor

humanprogressbyprotectingwhatmatters,andweareconvinced

wearenotalone.Wemustact

togethertoday,withvisionand

determination,toovercomethe

risksoftomorrowandbuildasaferandmoresustainablefuture.

AXA2025FUTURERISKSREPORT

Overview

Fragmentation

#1Climate

#2Geopolitical

#3Cybersecurity

#4AIandbigdata

#5Socialtensions

Risk6to9

Demographics

Undertheradar

Thefutureofinsurance

4

Executivesummary

TheFutureRisksReport2025examinestheperceptionsoftwogroups—insuranceexperts,drawnfromAXA

anditsprofessionalnetworks,andmembersofthegeneralpopulationacrosstheglobe—aboutthemostimportantfuturerisks.Theserangefrompersistentconcernsaboutclimatechangetoescalatingsocialandgeopoliticaltensions,therapidlyincreasing

capabilitiesofAI,andshiftingdemographicsaddingtopressureonpublicfinances.

Thisyear,oursurveyspotlightshowsocial

fragmentationiscompoundingtheworld’s

vulnerabilitytorisk.Confidenceisdeclining

inthecapacityofpublicauthoritiestohandle

thedeepeningglobalpolycrisis,whilethe

unprecedentedpaceatwhichtechnologicalrisks

areemergingmakesriskmanagementanddecision-makingincreasinglycomplex.Inthischallenging

environment,insurersareincreasinglyvital—notonlyinpreventingandmitigatingrisks,butalsoinbuildingamorecohesiveandresilientsociety.

DiscoverournewRiskRadarTool:adigitalmodule

enablingyoutofilterrawdatatogetatailoredviewofthetop10risksbycategories(expertsandgeneralpopulation),geographicareas(countriesorcontinent),andcustomizecomparisonsbetweengeographiesorperiods.

95%ofexpertsand93%ofthegeneralpopulationthinkcriseshaveincreasedinrecentyears

86%ofexpertsand84%ofthegeneralpopulationsaythemost

worryingriskscouldbepartiallyavoidedwithpreventiveaction

89%ofexpertsand

72%ofthegeneral

populationagreethatinsurers

haveanimportantroleinprotecting

againstfuturerisks

AXA2025FUTURERISKSREPORT

Overview

Fragmentation

#1Climate

#2Geopolitical

#3Cybersecurity

#4AIandbigdata

#5Socialtensions

Risk6to9

Demographics

Undertheradar

Thefutureofinsurance

5

83%

ofexpertsand

78%

ofthegeneralpopulation

thinkthattheworldismorevulnerablethanin2020

Keylessons

Lesson1:Climatechangeremainsthetopriskbutothersarechallenging

Climatechangetopsexperts’riskrankingsforthefifthconsecutiveyear,butthegapsarenarrowing:therisksinsecond(geopoliticalinstability),third(cybersecurity)andfourth(socialtensions)haveallmovedclosertoclimate

changethisyear.ClimatechangehasalsobeendisplacedfromthetopspotinEurope(bygeopoliticalinstability)andAfrica(cybersecurity).Theseresultsindicateadeepeningsenseofpolycrisis,makingacomprehensiveapproachtomanagingrisksmorecrucialthanever.

Lesson2:Riskscanbemanaged

andinsurersplayanimportantrole

Alargemajorityofrespondents—86%ofexpertsand84%ofthegeneral

population—agreethattherisksthatworrythemmostcouldbeatleast

partiallyavoidedbystrongpreventiveaction.Scientistsandacademics

continuetoinspirethegreatestconfidenceintheircapabilitytoaddressrisk,with78%ofexpertsand68%ofthegeneralpopulationsayingtheywouldtrustthesegroupstohelplimittheconsequencesofafuturecrisis—althoughthesefiguresaredownfromlastyear,astheyareforarangeofotheractors.

However,astablemajorityofthegeneralpopulation—72%,thesameasinlastyear’ssurvey—continuetobelievethattheroleofinsurersinprotecting

againstfutureriskswillbeimportant.

Only19%ofexpertsand16%

ofthegeneralpopulationexpressfullconfidenceinpublicauthorities’capacitytomanagefuturecrises

AXA2025FUTURERISKSREPORT

Overview

Fragmentation

#1Climate

Lesson3:Technologicalrisksareemergingat

anunprecedentedpace

CybersecurityandArtificialIntelligenceandbigdata—whichrank

3rdand4threspectivelyinexperts’lists—areposingnewchallengesfor

individuals,societiesandorganizationsworldwide.Theirpaceofchangeisalsoaffectingperceptionsofotherrisks:while“ethicalrisksregardingtheuseoftechnology”and“risksrelatedtosmartandautonomous

systems”didnotmakeexperts’top10,thosewhoselectedtheserisksweremuchmorelikelytosaytheyare“emergingrapidly”(54%and43%respectively,up10andsevenpointsonlastyear’ssurvey).

ofexpertsthinkthatethicalrisksaround

technologyarerapidlyemerging,versus44%lastyear

54%

#2Geopolitical

#3Cybersecurity

#4AIandbigdata

#5Socialtensions

Lesson4:Hopeinafragmentedworld

Societyisseenasincreasinglyfragmented:59%ofthegeneralpopulationbelievethatpeopleintheircountrysharefewerandfewercommonvalues,ornoneatall.Just12%thinkmostoftheirpeerssharetheirvisionofan

idealsociety.Alargemajorityofthegeneralpopulation(79%)andexperts(84%)seeasignificantriskthatgeopoliticaltensionsleadtoaglobalwar.Despitethisfeelingoffragmentation,astrongmajorityofthegeneralpopulationsaytheyarecommittedtodemocraticideals(72%)

andbelievethatinternationaldecision-makingisthemosteffectivewaytofindsolutionstofuturerisks(67%,upfrom63%lastyear).

Risk6to9

Demographics

Undertheradar

Thefutureofinsurance

6

>Mostexperts

(68%)andthegeneralpopulation(67%)

agreethatdecisionsaboutfuturerisksaremosteffectivewhenmadeattheinternationallevel

72%

ofthegeneralpublicsay theythinkthat“democracy mustbepreservedcome whatmay”,evenifitmeanslessefficientdecisionmaking.

About

theresearch

TheFutureRisksSurveywasconductedbyIpsosforAXA,usingonlinequestionnaireswithtwogroups:expertsandmembersofthegeneralpopulation.Thesurveywasconductedfrom

May14thtoJune19th,2025.1

d,

12years

oftrackingtheevolutionofriskperception

1.MostresponseswerereceivedbeforetheIran-IsraelTwelve-DayWar(13thto24thJune),whichconsequentlyhadonlyalimitedimpactonperceptionsofriskssuchasgeopoliticalinstability.

AXA2025FUTURERISKSREPORT

Overview

Fragmentation

#1Climate

#2Geopolitical

#3Cybersecurity

#4AIandbigdata

#5Socialtensions

Risk6to9

Demographics

Undertheradar

Thefutureofinsurance

7

The25risks

Wepresentedsurveyrespondentswith25risks,dividedintofivecategories,andaskedthemtochoosetheirtopfivebasedontheirpotentialimpactinthenextfiveto10years.Wedeterminedtherankingsbyassigningfivepointsforeachfirstchoice,fourforsecond,etc.Foreachrisk,“Countrieswhereconcernishighest”wereidentifiedbasedonthosethatrankedthisriskasthehighest,alongwiththeperceivedvulnerabilityexpressedbyboththe

generalpopulationandexperts.

HEALTH

ANDMEDICINE

ENVIRONMENTANDENERGY

TECHNOLOGYANDDATA

ECONOMICS,FINANCEANDBUSINESS

ENVIRONMENT

SOCIETY,POLITICSANDREGULATION

Chronicillnesses

Long-termexposureto

harmfulsubstances

Pandemicsandinfectiousdiseases

Risksrelatedtochanginghealthpracticesandnewoccupationaldiseases

Risksrelatedto

medicaladvancesandinnovations

ClimatechangeEnergyrisks

Pollution

SpaceandplanetaryrisksNaturalresources

andbiodiversity

Cybersecurity

DisruptivetechnologiesEthicalrisksregarding

theuseoftechnology

Risksrelatedtosmart

andautonomoussystemsArtificialIntelligence

andbigdata

FinancialstabilityMacroeconomics

Monetaryandfiscalpolicyrisks

Risksrelatedtothefutureofwork

Tech-relatedeconomicrisks

GeopoliticalinstabilityNewsecuritythreatsandterrorism

Demographics

RisksrelatedtoevolvingregulationandlitigationSocialtensionsand

movements

AXA2025FUTURERISKSREPORT

Overview

Fragmentation

#1Climate

#2Geopolitical

#3Cybersecurity

#4AIandbigdata

#5Socialtensions

Risk6to9

Demographics

Undertheradar

Thefutureofinsurance

8

Experts

Wesurveyed3,595expertsacross57countries.42%ofrespondentswereagedbetween45to59yearsold.55%weremen,44%women

and1%preferredtoself-describe.82%workedatAXA,1mainlyinriskmanagement.Theother18%weredrawnfromAXAsprofessional

networks,mainlyinthefinancialservicessector.

EUROPEASIAPACIFIC/MIDDLEEAST

55%

Men

Lessthan35y.o.

35to44y.o.

45to59y.o.

60y.o.andoverNoanswer

WorkatAXADonotworkatAXA

PROFILEOFTHEEXPERTS

1%

Preferto

self-describe

44%

Women

Averageage:45yearsold

17%

31%

42%

9%1%

82%

18%

1.Allstaffareincluded,ratherthanonlythosewithexpertiseinspecificareas.

1,720

respondents

987

respondents

ΨTopcountries:Thailand293

Indonesia190Japan152

ΨTopcountries:

France500

UnitedKingdom251Türkiye218

CHART-COLUMN3,595

experts

countries

57

AMERICASAFRICA

746

128

respondents·

ΨTopcountries:Colombia243

Brazil190Mexico170

respondents

ΨTopcountries:Morocco56

Nigeria40

AXA2025FUTURERISKSREPORT

Overview

Fragmentation

#1Climate

#2Geopolitical

#3Cybersecurity

#4AIandbigdata

#5Socialtensions

Risk6to9

Demographics

Undertheradar

Thefutureofinsurance

9

Generalpopulation

Wesurveyed23,000respondentsaged18oroverin18countries,representativeforage,gender,andoccupation.

Thiscomprised5,000peopleintheUnitedStates,2,000inGermany,and1,000ineachoftheUnitedKingdom,France,Switzerland,Italy,Spain,Belgium,Ireland,Türkiye,Mexico,Brazil,Morocco,Nigeria,Egypt,China,JapanandHongKong.Adifferenceintheselectionofcountriescomparedtolastyear(withTürkiye,Egypt,Ireland

andBraziladded,andAustraliaremoved)mustbetakenintoaccountwhencomparingresults.

EUROPEASIAPACIFIC/MIDDLEEASTAMERICASAFRICA

10,000

respondents

ΨTopcountries:

Germany–2,000

UnitedKingdom–1,000France–1,000

'

,r

3,000

respondents

ΨTopcountries:China–1,000

Japan–1,000

HongKong–1,000

7,000

respondents

ΨTopcountries:UnitedStates–5,000Mexico–1,000

Brazil–1,000

3,000

respondents

ΨTopcountries:Morocco–1,000Nigeria–1,000

Egypt–1,000

23,000

respondentsaged

18orover

·CHART-COLUMN

18

countries

s

AXA2025FUTURERISKSREPORT

Overview

Fragmentation

#1Climate

#2Geopolitical

#3Cybersecurity

#4AIandbigdata

#5Socialtensions

Risk6to9

Demographics

Undertheradar

Thefutureofinsurance

10

Globaltop10emergingrisksaccordingtoexpertsin2025

4.

AIand

2.

bigdata

1.

Climate

→2024:#4

Geopoliticalinstability

5.

→2024:#2

Socialtensionsandmovements

3.

→2024:#5

change

6.

Cybersecurity

Natural

resourcesand

biodiversity

→2024:#3

→2024:#6

→2024:#1

7.

Macroeconomics

↑2024:#11

8.

Energyrisks

↓2024:#7

9.

risks

Financialstability

↑2024:#10

10.

Demographics

↑2024:#11

AXA2025FUTURERISKSREPORT

Overview

Fragmentation

#1Climate

#2Geopolitical

#3Cybersecurity

#4AIandbigdata

#5Socialtensions

Risk6to9

Demographics

Undertheradar

Thefutureofinsurance

11

Evolutionoftheexperts,top10futurerisks

Macroeconomicanddemographicrisksentertheexperts,top10

Experts’topsixrisksremainunchangedfromlastyear,butthetop10seestwonewentries:

-Macroeconomicrisksre-enterthisyearin7th,theirhighestpositionsince2020,drivenbyconcernsovertariffsandtradewars.

-Risksrelatedtochangingdemographicsenterthetop10forthefirsttime,in10thposition.

Thisreflectsgrowingawarenessofthechallengesposedbyagingpopulations:the

WorldHealthOrganization

projectsthattheproportionoftheglobalpopulationagedover60willnearlydoublebetween2015and2050.

Thesenewentriesarebalancedbytwoexitsfromthetop10:

-Pandemicsandinfectiousdiseases—thetopconcernin2020—continuesitsdecline.However,itstillremainsinthetop10inregionsotherthanEurope.

-Newsecuritythreatsandterrorismdropsfromlastyear’s8thposition.

202020212022202320242025

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

PANDEMICSANDINFECTIOUSDISEASES

CLIMATECHANGE

CLIMATECHANGE

CLIMATECHANGE

CLIMATECHANGE

CLIMATECHANGE

GEOPOLITICALINSTABILITY

CLIMATECHANGE

GEOPOLITICALINSTABILITY

CYBERSECURITY

GEOPOLITICALINSTABILITY

CYBERSECURITY

CYBERSECURITY

CYBERSECURITY

CYBERSECURITY

PANDEMICSANDINFECTIOUSDISEASES

CYBERSECURITY

GEOPOLITICALINSTABILITY

GEOPOLITICALINSTABILITY

GEOPOLITICALINSTABILITY

PANDEMICSANDINFECTIOUSDISEASES

SOCIALTENSIONS

SOCIALTENSIONS

SOCIALTENSIONS

SOCIALTENSIONS

SOCIALTENSIONS

NEWTHREATSANDTERRORISM

NATURALRESOURCESANDBIODIVERSITY

NATURALRESOURCESANDBIODIVERSITY

NATURALRESOURCESANDBIODIVERSITY

NATURALRESOURCESANDBIODIVERSITY

MACROECONOMICS

MACROECONOMICS

NEWTHREATSANDTERRORISM

FINANCIALSTABILITY

NATURALRESOURCESANDBIODIVERSITY

SOCIALTENSIONS

FINANCIALSTABILITYFINANCIALSTABILITY

NATURALRESOURCESANDBIODIVERSITY

NEWTHREATSANDTERRORISM

ENERGYRISKSAIANDBIGDATAAIANDBIGDATAAIANDBIGDATA

ENERGYRISKS

ENERGYRISKS

ENERGYRISKS

PANDEMICSANDINFECTIOUSDISEASES

FINANCIALSTABILITY

MACROECONOMICS

MACROECONOMICS

FINANCIALSTABILITY

PANDEMICSANDINFECTIOUSDISEASES

MONETARYANDFISCALPOLICIESDEMOGRAPHICS

POLLUTION

AIANDBIGDATA

FINANCIALSTABILITY

MACROECONOMICS

AXA2025FUTURERISKSREPORT

Overview

Fragmentation

#1Climate

#2Geopolitical

#3Cybersecurity

#4AIandbigdata

#5Socialtensions

Risk6to9

Demographics

Undertheradar

Thefutureofinsurance

12

Globaltop10futurerisks:expertsvs

generalpopulation

Climatechangeremainsthetopriskoverallforbothexpertsandthe

generalpopulation,withthetopsixrisksforbothgroupsunchangedsincelastyear.Onaregionallevel,however,climatechangewasovertaken

bygeopoliticalinstabilityforexpertsinEurope,andbybothcybersecurityandAI-relatedrisksforexpertsinAfrica.After2024surpassed2023

asthehottestyearonrecord,accordingto

theWorldMeteorological

Organization

,thislikelyindicatesintensifyingconcernabouttheseotherrisksratherthananylesseningofconcernaboutclimatechange.

Threemajortrends

Climatechange

Geopolitical

instability

Cybersecurity

AIandbigdata

Socialtensionsandmovements

Naturalresourcesandbiodiversity

Macroeconomics

Energyrisks

Financialstability

Demographics

Climatechange

Newsecuritythreats

andterrorism

Cybersecurity

Socialtensionsandmovements

Pandemicsand

infectiousdiseases

Geopoliticalinstability

AIandbigdata

Financialstability

Pollution

Chronicillnesses

Focus

Gendergap:Womenprioritize

securityandhealthrisks

Theperceptionsofwomeninthegeneralpopulationdiverge

morethanthoseoftheirmalepeersfromtheperceptions

ofexperts.Womenweremoreinclinedtochoosenewsecuritythreatsandterrorism(2ndintheirrankings)overgeopolitical

instability(9th),andalsogaveahigherranking(3rd)topandemicsandinfectiousdiseases.

GENERALPUBLIC’SANDEXPERTS’TOP10LIST

GENERALPOPULATION

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

EXPERTS

1

2

3

Justsixoutofthetop10risksarecommontobothexpertsandthegeneralpopulation,lessoverlapthaninpreviousyears.

Onenvironmentalissuesbeyondclimatechange,expertsaremorefocusedonnaturalresourcesandbiodiversity(6th)and

energyrisks(8th)whilethegeneralpopulationismoreconcernedwithpollution(9th).

Security-related

concernsrankinsecondplaceforbothgroups,thoughtheiremphasisdiffers.

Forexperts,geopoliticalinstabilityisthemore

importantthreat,while

thegeneralpopulation

showsgreaterconcern

aboutnewsecuritythreatsandterrorism.

Technologicalrisks

remainprominent,

withcybersecurity

thirdonbothlistsand

thegeneralpopulation'sconcerncatchingupwithexperts’onAIandbig

datarisks(4thforexperts,7th—upthreeplaces—forthegeneralpopulation).ThosewhochosethisriskcitedAI-relatedthreatstohumanrightsandinterestsastheirmainconcern,andweremorelikelythanforotherriskstosaythatitis“rapidlyemerging”.

AXA2025FUTURERISKSREPORT

Overview

Fragmentation

#1Climate

#2Geopolitical

#3Cybersecurity

#4AIandbigdata

#5Socialtensions

Risk6to9

Demographics

Undertheradar

Thefutureofinsurance

13

2025expert'srisksrankingsbygeography

RankdownSamerankRankup

AMERICAS

1.Climatechange=

2.Cybersecurity=

3.AIandbigdata=

4.Geopoliticalinstability=

5.Naturalresourcesandbiodiversity=6.Socialtensionsandmovements=

7.Pandemicsandinfectiousdiseases+1

8.Ethicalrisksregardingtheuseoftechnology+7

9.Monetaryandfiscalpolicies+1

10.Energyrisks-3

AFRICA

1.Cybersecurity+1

2.AIandbigdata+2

3.Climatechange-2

4.Geopoliticalinstability-1

5.Energyrisks+1

6.Monetaryandfiscalpolicies+4

7.Socialtensionsandmovements+4

8.Macroeconomics-1

9.Pandemicsandinfectiousdiseases=10.Risksrelatedtothefutureofwork+7

ASIAPACIFIC

ANDMIDDLEEAST

1.Climatechange=

2.Cybersecurity=

3.AIandbigdata=

4.Geopoliticalinstability=5.Financialstability=

6.Pandemicsandinfectiousdiseases=7.Macroeconomics+7

8.Socialtensionsandmovements+3

9.Pollution-1