不斷發(fā)展的鎳業(yè)：趨勢(shì)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和未來之路Trends,Risks,andtheRoadAhead2025.10核心內(nèi)容MainContentMining:SaproliteDominatesasSulfideShareShrinksIntermediate:RapidExpansionofIntermediateProducts,DrivenbyMHP原生鎳：鎳生鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)向印尼轉(zhuǎn)移；硫酸鎳保持緊平衡；電解鎳Primary&Chemical:NPIShiftstoIndonesia;NiSO4maintainsS/Dbalance;RefinedNickelSeesSteadyGrowthDownstream:StainlessSteelDominates、Alloy&PlatingmaintainstablemarketshareIndonesia'sLateriteNickelDominance:SustainedMarketShareExpansionwhilethedecreaseofGlobalSulfideReserveSMMshanghaiMetalsMarket2018-2030E全球鎳產(chǎn)量主要流向 冶煉火法冶金Pyrometallurgy 鎳生鐵、FeNi、高冰鎳Limonite濕法冶金鎳生鐵、FeNi、高冰鎳LimoniteSaproliteSaprolite0世界鎳礦產(chǎn)量份額世界鎳礦產(chǎn)量份額WorldNickelOreProductionShare(%)0主要來源：主要來源：ID對(duì)比PH對(duì)比其他MainSources:IDvsPHvsOthers?SMM.Allrightsreserved.Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodelPage3?SMM.Allrightsreserved.Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodelPage4單位：1000單位：1000鎳噸/Unit：1,000Niton印度尼西亞的MHP其他國家的MHP20212022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030EIndonesiaDominatesNewIntermediateNickelProjects–CostAdvantageDrivesMHPMa20212022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030ESMMshanghaiMetalsMarket2021–2030E2021–2030E年全球MHP供應(yīng)預(yù)測(cè)ForecastingofGlobalMHPSupply2021-2030E20212025E2030EIndonesia86%OtherTotal印度尼西亞高冰鎳供應(yīng)預(yù)測(cè)2021印度尼西亞高冰鎳供應(yīng)預(yù)測(cè)2021-2030年ForecastingofIndonesianNickelMatteSupply2021-2030ESmeltingcostsarerelativelyhighDownstreamareSmeltingcostsarerelativelyhighDownstreamarerelativelyconcentrated印度尼西亞冰鎳20212022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E?SMM.Allrightsreserved.Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodelPage5長期原生鎳供應(yīng)展望：鎳生鐵依舊占據(jù)主導(dǎo)Long-TermNickelSupplyOutlook:NPIDominance,SlowingNickelSulphateGrowth,andStableRefinedNickelShareSMMshanghaiMetalsMarket2015－2030E全球原生鎳供應(yīng)量變化Changesinsupplyforglobalprimarynickel，2015-2030E4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0005000CAGR2015-20202020-20252025E-2030E RefinedNickel-3.47%4.34%3.08%令 NPI21.8%12.72%3.72%◆命 FeNi9.67%-9.71%-1.32% NickelSulphate17.46%30.69%2.21%令 Others-5.87%-18.28%-8.66%電解鎳RefinedNickel2015：54%2020：33%電解鎳RefinedNickel2015：54%2020：33%2025：28%2030E：28%?隨著不銹鋼廠越來越多地選擇鎳生鐵作為主要鎳原料，下游領(lǐng)域鎳生鐵鎳生鐵?作為青山不銹鋼廠鎳原料來源之一，鎳生鐵在2018年鎳?鎳生鐵經(jīng)濟(jì)性反超電解鎳，促使下游不銹鋼冶煉企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)向以鎳生鐵為主?當(dāng)前鎳生鐵價(jià)格已跌至歷史低位，多數(shù)冶煉廠面臨持續(xù)性利本端支撐表明中長期鎳生鐵價(jià)格易漲難跌，同時(shí)需關(guān)注不銹與電解鎳競爭再度上演的可能性。Currently,NPIpriceshavefallentohistoricallylowlevels.Mostsmeltersarefacingsustainedlosses.Cost-sidesupportsuggeststhat,inthemediumandlongterm,NPIpricesaremorelikelytorisethanfall.Atthesametime,attentionshouldbepaidtothepotentialrecurrenceofcompetitionwithrefinednickelintheSSTrawmaterialsector.2015：22%2020：43%2025：54%2030E：56%?SMM.Allrightsreserved.Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodelPage6未來幾年，全球鎳消費(fèi)仍將由不銹鋼和新能源電池發(fā)展驅(qū)動(dòng)，但歷史性的高增長率難以持Inthenextfewyears,theglobalconsumptionofnickelwillstilltobedrivenbystainlesssteelandthedevelopmentofnewhanghaMetaMarketenergybatteries.However,thehistoricalhighgrowthrateisdifficulttosustain全球原生鎳下游需求變化2015-2030EChangesindownstreamdemandforglobalprimarynickel2015-2030ECAGR2015-2020CAGR2015-20202020-2025E2020-2025E2025E-2030ESSTSST3,500Battery3,000Battery◆會(huì)2,500◆會(huì)ElectroplatingAlloyAlloyOthers500Others0Battery2015：2%2020：6%2025：11%2030E：8%鏈產(chǎn)能迅速擴(kuò)張，需求量持續(xù)上行。三元電池占鎳需求的比例已超?中長期看，新能源長期向好的趨勢(shì)磷酸鐵鋰電池?cái)D壓，增速進(jìn)一步放緩，對(duì)鎳的增量需求有限。預(yù)計(jì)2030年后，隨著固態(tài)電池實(shí)現(xiàn)商業(yè)化，新能源領(lǐng)域鎳需求增速或resumegrowthafter2030,followingthecommercializationofsolid-statebatteries.SST?作為鎳產(chǎn)品最大的下游應(yīng)用，不銹鋼在2018年占原生鎳總需求份額2015：70%2020：71%2025：68%2030E：72%?SMM.Allrightsreserved.Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodelPage8印度尼西亞擁有全球最大的鎳資源份額，預(yù)計(jì)到2025年將占世界總量的約40％。Indonesiahasthelargestshareofglobalnickelresources,accountingforapproximately40%大陸國家儲(chǔ)量（百萬噸大陸國家儲(chǔ)量（百萬噸4.84.4加拿大大洋洲澳大利亞24新喀里多尼亞全球鎳礦產(chǎn)能分布紅土鎳礦Lateritenickelore硫化鎳Sulfide Implementationofmeasuresrelatedtoquantity,price,androyaltiestaxrevenueSMMtoboostIndonesiangovernmentetaMarketClarificationofnickelproductproductionandsalessituations價(jià)格覆蓋產(chǎn)品范圍更廣，減少價(jià)格滯后性價(jià)格覆蓋產(chǎn)品范圍更廣，減少價(jià)格滯后性拉弗曲線Laffercurve單位：美元/金屬噸Unit:$/mt(metalcontent)HMA價(jià)格Price（2021年-2025年7月）35,00030,00025,00020,00015,00010,0005,000018000線?SMM.Allrightsreserved.Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodelPage10自2024年起，菲律賓出口至印尼的鎳礦量迅速增加SMMStartingin2024,thevolumeofnickeloreexportedfromthePhilippinestoIndonesiaincreasedrapidlyhanghaMetaMarketNickelNickelOreExportDestinationsfromthePhilippinesIndonesiaImportedPhilippineNickelOreAnalysisandForecast202480%YearlytotalImports各島嶼的供需情況各不相同，其中蘇拉威西島是最S&Dvarybetweenislands,withSulawesibeingthelargestsourceoforeSMMshanghaiMetalsMarket貿(mào)易流動(dòng)，但無實(shí)際交易貿(mào)易流動(dòng)，但無實(shí)際交易實(shí)際交易流量，箭頭粗細(xì)代表數(shù)量Actualtradeflows,thethicknessoarrowsrepresentsthe運(yùn)費(fèi)、保險(xiǎn)費(fèi)及港雜費(fèi)等，xxxx單位：美元/濕噸Freight,insuranc ?SMM.Allrightsreserved.Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodelPage13新中間品項(xiàng)目主要集中在印尼，預(yù)計(jì)到2030年印尼總產(chǎn)量將占84%NewintermediateproductprojectsaremostlylocatedinIndonesia,anditisexpectedthatIndonesia'stotalproductionwillaccountfor84%by2030SMMshanghaiMetalsMarketTheTheproportionofIndonesia'sintermediateproductproductionintheglobaltotalisstillincreasing其他地區(qū)總占比+++ThecontinuousincreaseinoutputfromIndonesia'sMHPbroughtthemostsignificantgrowthrate其他地區(qū)總占比++其他地區(qū)總占比43%+ForecastingofGlobalNickelIntermediatesSupplybyType2021-2030E單位：1000鎳噸Unit：1,000NitonMHP高冰鎳High-GradeNickelMatteIndonesia'sIndonesia'sHigh-GradeNickelMatteMaintainsMarketShare?SMM.Allrightsreserved.Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodelPage14GlobaldemandforMHPisstrong,withahighoperationalrate.MHPproducedinIndonesiaisprimarilyforexportsalesSMMshanghaiMetalsMarket印尼MHP產(chǎn)能IndonesianMHPCapacity單位：1000鎳噸.莫羅瓦利韋達(dá)灣m其他血思血思貨血思貨血+思貨?SMM.Allrightsreserved.Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodelPage15受新能源需求激增影響，高冰鎳產(chǎn)能于2024年前持續(xù)擴(kuò)張。受MHP新建產(chǎn)能影響，2024年后高冰鎳增速有所放緩Duetothesurgeinnewenergy,high-gradenickelmatteexpandedbefore2024.AffectedbythenewcapacityofMHP,thegrowthrateofhigh-gradenickelmattesloweddownafter2024SMMshanghaiMetalsMarketIndonesianHighGradeNickelMatteCapacity血思貨血思貨IndonesianHighGradeNickelMatteOutput血思血思GlobalMarketNPIandFeNiSupplyForecastandDistributionSMMshanghaiMetalsMarket2018-2030年2018-2030年全球鎳生鐵產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)GlobalNPIProductionForecast,2018-2030E單位：1000鎳噸2018201920202022018-2030年全球鎳鐵產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)GlobalFeNiProductionForecast,2018-2030E鎳鐵鎳鐵201820192020202202420182030E20242018鐵使用占比約40%,其經(jīng)濟(jì)性相對(duì)電解鎳OverviewofGlobalNickelSulphate2020-2030年中國硫酸鎳產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)ChinaNickelSulphateOutput,2020-2030E500000400000300000200000080%60%40%2020-2030年印尼及其他國家硫酸鎳產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)2020-2030年印尼及其他國家硫酸鎳產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)25000020000050000050%SMMshanghaiMetalsMarket2025-203020252025-20302025供應(yīng)量供應(yīng)量-9.7%2.56%原材料流向盈利水平更高的下游產(chǎn)MHP供應(yīng)增加，品新硫酸鎳項(xiàng)目啟動(dòng)rawmaterialsflowtoMHPSupplyincrease,downstreamproductswithNewNickelSulphateprohigherprofit需求量需求量0.56%PCAM旺季需求量超出預(yù)期PCAMExceedsExpectations-0.25%磷酸鐵鋰壓制三元，產(chǎn)能轉(zhuǎn)移海外致出口訂單下滑，固態(tài)電池?cái)U(kuò)產(chǎn)后回暖供應(yīng)量供應(yīng)量-20.6%受原料制約4.23%原材料調(diào)漲，工業(yè)本地化增加供給increaseSupply需求量需求量新能源補(bǔ)貼刺激需求量NewEnergySubsidies4.55%受產(chǎn)業(yè)本土化和固態(tài)電池?cái)U(kuò)張推動(dòng)ofSolid-StateBatteries2018-2021：2021-2025E：2025E-2030E：2018-2021：2021-2025E：2025E-2030E：SMMshanghaiMetalsMarket2018-2030全球電解鎳產(chǎn)量歷史數(shù)據(jù)與預(yù)測(cè)2018-2030EHistoricalandForecastGlobal2018-2030全球電解鎳產(chǎn)量歷史數(shù)據(jù)與預(yù)測(cè)ProductionGlobalRefinedNickelProductionDistribution20242030E?SMM.Allrightsreserved.Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodelPage21BatteryDemandDynamics:NCMMarketShareDeclineandMediumandHigh-NickelwillbetheSMMshanghaiMetalsMarket全球新能源汽車市場鋰電池需求量全球新能源汽車市場鋰電池需求量LMFPLFPNCM100%75%50%25%0%20182019202020212022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E020182019202020212022202320242025E2026E2027E2028E2029E2030E?SMM.Allrightsreserved.Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodelPage22SMMshanghaiMetalsSMMshanghaiMetalsMarket中國印尼中國印尼全球除中國和印度MarketShare(%)100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%2018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030mm200系mm300系400系同比（右軸）30,00025,00020,0005,000020222025E2030E8%88%80%?SMM.Allrightsreserved.Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodelPage23合金與電鍍市場增速未來將放緩TheGrowthRateofAlloyandElectroplatingMarketWillSlowDownintheFutureSMMshanghaiMetalsMarket全球鎳消費(fèi)量在合金特種鋼和電鍍領(lǐng)域GlobalNickelCons合金與特殊鋼鐵電鍍合金與特殊鋼鐵:消耗電解鎳用量的80％。受噴氣發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)和燃?xì)廨啓C(jī)需求推動(dòng)，需求量從2018年的39.1噸增至2025年的52.8萬噸（年復(fù)合增電鍍:需求量市占率較小，2018-2025年期間穩(wěn)定在10.4萬噸左右。受電動(dòng)汽車和精密電子需求推動(dòng)，預(yù)計(jì)到2030年需求量將達(dá)到11.2萬噸。長期與短期價(jià)格邏輯Long-TermandShort-TermPriceLogic倫交所與鎳生鐵價(jià)格趨勢(shì)，2015-2030ELME倫交所與鎳生鐵價(jià)格趨勢(shì)，2015-2030ELME&NPIPriceTrend,2015-2030E2021-20222027ThelogicalanchorpointforthebottomofLMEnickelprices–pressureforinventory,cost2027SMM2028shanghaiMetalsMarket2028庫存高峰：46萬噸鎳鎳生鐵底價(jià)約900元/噸度，相當(dāng)于11,200美元/鎳噸過剩加劇。電解鎳過剩加劇。電解鎳vsvsvsvs高作為SST原料之一作為SST原料之一?SMM.Allrightsreserved.Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodelPage26IntertwinedPriceTrendsofRefinedNickelandNPI:RawMaterialCompetitionSettoReemergeSMMshanghaiMetalsMarket鎳生鐵與電解鎳價(jià)差PricedifferencebetweenNPIandRefinedNickelNPI-純鎳(右軸)8-12%高鎳生鐵(出廠價(jià))(元/鎳噸)（左軸）1#進(jìn)口鎳-平均價(jià)(元/鎳噸)（左軸）002009/092010/09中國#300不銹鋼原料結(jié)構(gòu)對(duì)比ComparisonofFeedstockStructurefor#300StainlessSteelinChina純鎳鎳生鐵廢料.鎳鐵2017201820192020GlobalprimarynickelisexpectedtoremaininsurplusSMMshanghaiMetalsMarket2015-2030E全球原生鎳供需平衡Globalprimarynickelsupply-demandbalance,2015-2030E供應(yīng)量鎳生鐵鎳鐵電解鎳硫酸鎳其他供需差額不銹鋼steel電鍍合金其他各行業(yè)板塊的毛利率存在顯著差異，利潤主要集中在上游Thereisasignificantdisparityingrossprofitmarginsacrossvarioussegmentsoftheindustry,withprofitsprimarilyconcentratedintheupstreamsegmentSMMshanghaiMetalsMarket40%腐泥土褐鐵礦高冰鎳MHP鎳生鐵-中國鎳生鐵-印尼?SMM.Allrightsreserved.Source:DataprocessedbySMMbasedonmodelSMM'sinventoryindexforvarioussegmentsofthenickelindustrychaintracksshort-termmarketdynamicsandassistsinjudgingshort-termmarkettrendsSMMshanghaiMetalsMarket鎳產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈當(dāng)前庫存水平對(duì)比（單位：月）我國下游冶煉廠高品位冰鎳我國下游冶煉廠高品位冰鎳0.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.00.50.001/2503/2505/2507/2509/253.02.0