摘要財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)估與管理是影響企業(yè)經(jīng)營(yíng)效率跟成本的核心要素，本文把新零售企業(yè)瑞幸咖啡選作研究對(duì)象，以其財(cái)務(wù)舞弊事件暴露出來的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與內(nèi)控問題為基礎(chǔ)，借助Z-Score模型對(duì)2017-2022年財(cái)務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)開展量化分析，探究其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)演進(jìn)規(guī)律并制定管理舉措。研究表明：2017-2019年舞弊前，Z值受虛增收入和高杠桿擴(kuò)張影響，持續(xù)低于安全閾值1.81，舞弊的2020年，由于成本控制不住且現(xiàn)金流斷裂，Z值陡然降至-2.7，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)升至最高點(diǎn)；舞弊現(xiàn)象曝光后，采用債務(wù)重組、股權(quán)重構(gòu)和對(duì)數(shù)字化運(yùn)營(yíng)進(jìn)行優(yōu)化，Z值回升至1.2的水平，但依舊處于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)范圍。給出三重管理辦法：完備內(nèi)控體系，把Z值指標(biāo)歸入管理層考核體系，切實(shí)強(qiáng)化對(duì)資金鏈與收入真實(shí)性的監(jiān)控；設(shè)立動(dòng)態(tài)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估體系，結(jié)合行業(yè)特性調(diào)整Z-Score模型的權(quán)重，舉例來說提升現(xiàn)金流指標(biāo)占比；強(qiáng)化信息披露跟外部監(jiān)管的協(xié)同工作，憑借定期公示Z值降低信息不對(duì)稱的潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。研究證實(shí)Z-Score模型針對(duì)新零售企業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警有有效性，又為同類企業(yè)提供“模型適配優(yōu)化-治理機(jī)制嵌入”的實(shí)踐案例，既有理論意義又有行業(yè)參考意義。關(guān)鍵詞：Z-Score模型瑞幸公司財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理對(duì)策

ABSTRACTTheevaluationandmanagementoffinancialriskisthecorefactorthataffectstheoperatingefficiencyandcostofenterprises.ThispaperselectsLuckinCoffee,anewretailenterprise,astheresearchobject,andbasedonthefinancialriskandinternalcontrolproblemsexposedbyitsfinancialfraud,makesaquantitativeanalysisofthefinancialdatafrom2017to2022withthehelpofZ-Scoremodel,exploresitsriskevolutionlawandformulatesmanagementmeasures.Theresearchshowsthatbeforethefraudin2017-2019,theZvaluewasaffectedbyinflatedincomeandhighleverageexpansion,andkeptbelowthesafetythresholdof1.81.In2020,duetotheuncontrollablecostandbrokencashflow,theZvaluesuddenlydroppedto-2.7,andtheriskrosetothehighestpoint.Afterthefraudwasexposed,theZvalueroseto1.2bydebtrestructuring,equityrestructuringandoptimizationofdigitaloperation,butitwasstillintheriskrange.Threemanagementmethodsaregiven:completetheinternalcontrolsystem,puttheZ-valueindexintothemanagementevaluationsystem,andstrengthenthemonitoringoftheauthenticityofthecapitalchainandincome;Establishadynamicriskassessmentsystem,adjusttheweightofZ-Scoremodelaccordingtoindustrycharacteristics,forexample,increasetheproportionofcashflowindicators;Strengthenthecollaborativeworkbetweeninformationdisclosureandexternalsupervision,andreducethepotentialriskofinformationasymmetrybyregularlypublicizingZvalue.TheresearchprovesthatZ-Scoremodeliseffectiveforriskearlywarningofnewretailenterprises,andprovidesapracticalcaseof"modeladaptationandoptimization-governancemechanismembedding"forsimilarenterprises,whichhasboththeoreticalsignificanceandindustryreferencesignificance.Keywords:Z-Scoremodel;LuckinCoffee;financialriskassessment;financialriskmanagementcountermeasures

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