目 錄TOC\o"1-2"\h\z\u一、月度行情表現(xiàn)：2025年10月銀行板塊上漲 5（一）2025年10銀板塊漲紅資表較好 5（二）市環(huán)：10國(guó)債率蕩行紅資產(chǎn)交比升 7二、銀行基本面跟蹤 8（一）行月數(shù)跟蹤 8（二）3Q25銀板持降至史位投價(jià)凸顯 10三、險(xiǎn)資動(dòng)態(tài)：舉熱延續(xù)，全年迄今34起 10四、投資建議 五、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示 12圖表目錄圖表1 225年來業(yè)漲幅申一行分類（至10） 5圖表2 2023年今各子塊值況至10/31） 5圖表3 2025.1.1-2025.10.31 A銀板個(gè)跌幅 6圖表4 2025.1.1-2025.10.31 H銀板個(gè)跌幅 7圖表5 債債期益率勢(shì)（%） 7圖表6 行塊月交額占市熱情（億，%） 8圖表7 行塊史值指標(biāo) 8圖表8 9月融據(jù)覽 9圖表9 2015-2025險(xiǎn)舉牌數(shù)計(jì)未增） 圖表10 2025年資牌標(biāo)行分布 圖表2025險(xiǎn)牌的A/H股布 圖表12 2025年資牌參方數(shù)計(jì) 20252一、月度行情表現(xiàn)：2025年10月銀行板塊上漲（一）2025年101、銀行板塊上漲4.36%，繼續(xù)調(diào)整2025年10月1日至10月31日，銀行業(yè)累計(jì)上漲4.36%，跑贏滬深300指數(shù)4.36pct，31圖表1 225年以來各業(yè)漲跌幅（申萬一行分類（截至10）4.36%12.00%4.36%10.00%8.00%6.00%4.00%2.00%0.00%-2.00%-4.00%-6.00%滬深300計(jì)算機(jī)房地產(chǎn)電子傳媒2、各子板塊表現(xiàn)：國(guó)有行、城商行估值上升明顯20251011031PB0.70XPB0.64X0.67XPB0.59X0.58X。圖表2 2023年至今銀各子板塊估值情況截至10/31）0.85000.80000.75000.70000.65000.60000.55000.50000.45000.4000CS國(guó)有銀行Ⅲ CS股份制銀行 CS城商行3、個(gè)股表現(xiàn)：業(yè)績(jī)改善的城商行和國(guó)有行領(lǐng)漲1020251031行以及農(nóng)行、中行等國(guó)有行領(lǐng)漲，漲幅靠前的銀行為重慶銀行（194%、農(nóng)業(yè)銀行（19.34%）、廈門銀行（12.26%）、上海銀行（9.30%）、青島銀行（8.82%）。業(yè)績(jī)不及預(yù)期的幾家股份行和城商行本月下跌，包括浦發(fā)銀行（-3.45%）、成都銀行（-2.55%）、民生銀行（-1.76%）、（-0.6%）。-3.053.54%3.50%3.48%-3.053.54%3.50%3.48%3.23%3.20%3.07%6.60%%.503.51%-4%62.5%5.0812.50%%浦發(fā)銀.47%0.63%-60%7.11.22%-14.19%6%3.6.71%-3.00%0%1-6.6-2.55%2.95%成都銀行.48%0.72%-04%-5.35%2.0%9.300%4.15.93%-%-10.59-1.76%-1.06%民生銀行2%.72.84%-23%0.50.00%5.03%3%4.5.53%-06.67%-%-11.11-0.60%-9.65%光大銀行2.77%-.71%-14%1.71.42%-%9.250%3.73%0.3.85%8%6.94-0.00%10.36%西安銀行2.13%-.66%-17%2.0-0.34%4.10%.63%24%4.9.23%5%0-4.80.00%6.21%郵儲(chǔ)銀行0.34%-.38%-1%02.80%1.7%7.6910.06%0%0.04.42%-%8.02-0.34%7.42%浙商銀行0.65%-.16%-24%1.82.53%-%7.413%5.20%0.00.67%-%.04-61.07%2.88%紫金銀行%.443%.443%52.95.89%-0%5.89%0.93.57%-%.78-51.19%8.55%招商銀行2.22%-.80%-5%95.43%2.0%8.46.02%3.73%2-4.92%-1.35%4.33%蘇州銀行0.61%-.50%-2%23.40.66%-5.00%.88%2-6.98%-%8.17-1.45%-4.62%北京銀行4.76%-.00%-23%1.5-4.15%-3%7.04%4.08%2.30.48%-%1-4.81.52%-3.42%鄭州銀行1.18%-.10%-23%-0.42.16%-7%6.13%3.71%0.7.40%0%4-4.81.69%1.58%蘭州銀行.00%67%.12%04.13.38%-%8.48%7.90.00%3-1.02%-%-11.421.91%10.51%興業(yè)銀行1.97%-.52%04%2.3-3.11%-6%5.9%7.683%1.31.47%-%.89-51.94%1.90%平安銀行.03%1.37%-21%0.20%1.813.33%0.96%.00%3-1.12%-%8-3.72.82%9.23%杭州銀行2.11%-.69%-70%1.9%4.16%9.099%5.57%0.26%.71%7.20-7.82%常熟銀行1.07%-.92%-54%1.32.45%-12.98%.84%2.42%2-0.71%-%.35-51.18%瑞豐銀行1.35%-.26%-32%1.43.32%-%10.31.44%3.26%1-3%.31%1-3.66.29%無錫銀行.38%0.52%-5%82.27%0.8%9.98.11%3.20%1-3.14%-%-1.717.99%南京銀行3.84%-.00%-55%8.47.15%-3.58%1%0.54.78%-%-13.08-10.61%華夏銀行1.64%-.33%-0%93.69%1.2%10.544%4.35%0.02.29%-%9.06-9.30%青農(nóng)商行3%.11.67%-4%43.10.38%-15.08%8%5.3.81%-40.94%-%6-4.33%4.212.91%蘇農(nóng)銀行2%.13.29%-62%7.42.66%14%5.8-0.06%.04%-57.23%-4.77%1%5.019.88%渝農(nóng)商行.94%5%.1546%0.69%0.9%8.50-2.77%.59%-47.63%-3.05%0%5.413.28%齊魯銀行1.88%-.43%-4%14.50.72%7%6.610.32%0%2.43.13%-%6.95-6%5.55.07%滬農(nóng)商行1.67%-.71%-2%12.62.04%-2%5.7%7.370%2.43.13%-%6.95-6%5.56.36%貴陽銀行2.29%-.04%-3%62.61.18%-%9.95.04%2.44%-09%.80%.87-45%5.68.86%張家港行0.57%-.35%-0%63.70%2.64-%.33-44%6.08.75%建設(shè)銀行.64%0.73%09%0.24%1.71-%-1.758%6.517.15%工商銀行.00%0.60%-43%7.22.32%-%10.124%3.9.89%1-%.003%7.29-4%6.714.37%江陰銀行4.37%-.55%-0%33.34%2.91.74%6%5.2.38%-44.97%-%7.57-5%6.8-2.76%交通銀行.52%8.96%-7%46.37.44%-11.76%.43%26%5.26%.21%.34-63%7.220.46%寧波銀行0%.44.06%-8%54.06.95%%8.07.72%-34.16%-%7.39-8%7.415.30%江蘇銀行4.87%-%.923%43.01%1.4%10.40%6.78.78%1-3.54%-%8.86-0%7.513.03%中信銀行0%.21.92%-0%03.70.83%-0.18%.81%1.25%1-0.54%-%.16-60%8.36.36%中國(guó)銀行1%.73.05%-72%7.11.42%-%8.401%5.6.60%-02.73%-%.03-68%8.314.74%長(zhǎng)沙銀行1%.639%.41%33.47.58%%9.91.97%2.62%-4%.373%2%8.837.75%青島銀行4%.61.65%0%45.2%5.381.93%.39%2.58%-36.74%-%.08-60%9.39.28%上海銀行1.60%-.26%-18%7.42.21%-12.50%%7.268%0.82.19%-%.27-6%12.2627.96%廈門銀行1.11%-.58%-07%0.9%4.632.03%%6.330%9.41.43%1%.99-419.34%55.76%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行0.81%-.88%-3.87%110.20%14.58%-0.77%.91%-62.67%-%9.25-19.48%19.84%重慶銀行25/0125/0225/0325/0425/0525/0625/0725/0825/0925/10年初至今漲跌幅25/0725/06-13.83----25/0725/06-13.83---------------%0.00%0.00%76.66%1.53.08%3%13.43%0.76.76%5%-1.4-8.82%6.90%中原銀行%4.487%8.5-3%3.12%-12.10%6.930.65%7%6.10.00%6%1.1-8.05%19.40%哈爾濱銀行1%.4-7%6.670%0.05%3.7-0.00%5.15%8%13.32.25%7%0.5-5.71%5.05%廣州農(nóng)商銀行7%-19.7%2.833%.1-43%-8.3%11.606.99%3%6.50.00%7%.0-5-4.78%-16.63%東莞農(nóng)商銀行%6.949%5.1-4%-2.70%-0.7-0.71%3.57%9%2.70%5.04%.4-5-4.32%-1.67%晉商銀行%0.007%-1.32%9.73%-6.36%6.7.86%84%-15.8%10.146%.2-5-4.17%-0.85%江西銀行%7.857%-0.21%.4-50%4.0%10.712.07%19%6.26.13%1%.2-4-3.16%21.51%民生銀行1%-2.90%-1.05%.0-53%2.1-3%5.4%21.659%13.93.03%4%.9-2-3.03%26.63%鄭州銀行%0.400%7.6-%35.63%-5.32.60%1.81%13%9.43.45%3%-8.9-2.75%-0.40%甘肅銀行%1.35%5.78%87.95%1.9%7%.3-3-1.94%20.60%浙商銀行%4.84%7.593%-1.54%14.6%57%3.0-1.61%55.49%青島銀行%4.69%3.296%0.9%16.32%7.77.99%8%.5-35.15%3%-7.4-1.54%12.52%中國(guó)光大銀行%5.473%11.67%1.89%-1.19%7.02.70%6%1.25%4.57%9.6-1.19%49.56%匯豐控股%5.621%8.5-3%2.31%3.4-1.10%-1.11%3%15.70.97%8%0.9-0.97%14.61%渤海銀行5%.9-43%-1.70%10.07%4.313.89%%20.981%-1.20.82%4%3.6-0.39%51.93%天津銀行%2.08%0.684%0.34%0.3-0.33%3.07%5%-1.30.00%3%-1.00.00%3.77%威海銀行%1.31%6.250%2.00%2.02.00%2.00%0%2.02.00%0%2.0.00%222.75%郵儲(chǔ)銀行%0.00%4.863%1.93%10.20%7.9%22.935%-9.0%11.825%-11.6.45%243.86%徽商銀行%1.01%4.11%04.43%4.1-%10.342.50%14%1.66.71%0%-0.4.94%227.02%建設(shè)銀行%4.80%9.70%56.35%4.6-7%5.00.00%4%-0.46.17%0%0.0.29%318.19%中國(guó)銀行%6.62%6.688%0.82%-7.515.19%2.17%13%.2-35.88%8%.5-2.02%426.55%招商銀行%1.20%8.321%14.85%2.53.71%7.23%2%3.50.23%2%4.5.49%461.89%中銀香港%4.65%3.973%0.77%3.9-3%7.3.93%89%-0.34.15%2%-0.5.88%422.57%工商銀行%7.695%18.96%.8-41%1.3-%8.876.60%8%8.41.53%4%4.5.41%569.40%渣打集團(tuán)%1.69%4.93%55.43%0.91.03%6.26%5%.1-34.81%7%.9-2.67%515.24%交通銀行7%-1.0%8.631%-3.88%-2.53.71%5.59%5%-1.821.23%1%-0.7.77%537.81%大新金融%2.37%2.73%87.99%12.6%10.662.47%3%6.0-7.54%4%4.3.32%639.85%重慶農(nóng)村商業(yè)銀行4%-1.6%3.68%38.29%16.95%7.10.74%1%4.9-3.74%7%-1.45%9.237.33%重慶銀行%0.002%16.0%84.99%-8.03.37%.60%93%0.35%5.86%.8-24%10.744.90%東亞銀行%3.54%2.88%76.46%0.612.72%0.90%17%-2.24.79%8%.8-36%10.741.37%中信銀行5%-3.0%210.82%-2.73%-2.33%6.36.84%9%0.9%2%.3-34%12.244.67%大新銀行集團(tuán)6%-0.5%8.188%1.08%1.23%6.31.11%14%5.7-1.94%0%0.06%12.740.98%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行%%511.80%-0.45%2.72.57%7.10%5%-2.51.69%7%6.329.03%68.64%恒生銀行25/0125/0225/0325/0425/0525/0825/0925/10年初至今漲跌幅（二）市場(chǎng)環(huán)境：10年期國(guó)債利率震蕩下行，紅利資產(chǎn)成交占比上升1、利率環(huán)境：10年期國(guó)債利率震蕩下行2025年10月，101101.85%1.80%1期債率上行下，初在1.37%-1.38%右。圖表5 中債國(guó)債到期益率走勢(shì)圖（%）3.002.502.001.501.000.500.00

0.900.800.700.600.500.400.300.200.100.0010年-1年利差（右軸） 中國(guó)中債國(guó)債到期收益率:10年 中國(guó)中債國(guó)債到期收益率:1年2、市場(chǎng)交易情況2025年10月市場(chǎng)防御避險(xiǎn)需求上升，銀行板塊交易占比環(huán)比提升0.37pct至1.82%。截1031AB10圖表6 銀行板塊每月交額及占比市場(chǎng)熱情（億元，%）銀行板塊成交額和熱度2023年1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月成交額（億元）2,192.32,531.73,547.63,334.35,134.72,609.22,667.03,592.1042,627.32,553.6262,545.12,600.2成交額1.6631.542.7681.361.5011.8961.8271.8171.311.5822024年3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月成交額（億元）4,258.03,892.93,545.04,117.44,092.73,457.54,362.33,773.54,709.46,641.25,569.46,119.3成交額占比總AB成交額2.622.7121.6622.2472.4142.5182.8922.8723.111.8321.3481.7262025年1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月成交額（億元）4,404.504,228.874,811.305,651.294,873.706,398.637,889.567145.187,698.626,696.49成交額占比總AB成交額2.031.2771.52.182.112.402.101.471.451.82截至10月31日）截止10月3101780）整體PE為6370470B為0.427.65。4.02%31.96%。圖表7 銀行板塊歷史值指標(biāo)二、銀行基本面跟蹤（一）行業(yè)月度數(shù)據(jù)跟蹤10月15年期LPR1LPR35年期LPR3.5%。9月社融：10152025993.5322971.2930009月社融點(diǎn)評(píng)：。202593.5322978.7%0.7pct8910681.23471203150037291.6366270%1869現(xiàn)票據(jù)同比多增1923億元。信貸基本延續(xù)891.29300081）企業(yè)端：91.222700/7100億/40262500471291005002）居民端：93890億/1421/25001279/200億9306.79.99月M1增速繼續(xù)走高，M2增速回落至8.4%，居民和企業(yè)存款有所回流。9月M1增速環(huán)比上升1.2pct至7.2%，連續(xù)5個(gè)月上升，既有去年手工補(bǔ)息的低基數(shù)效應(yīng)，也有企業(yè)和居民資金活化度提升的影響。M2-M1剪刀差收窄至1.2pct，或表明企業(yè)生產(chǎn)經(jīng)營(yíng)活躍度提升、居民投資消費(fèi)需求回暖等積極信號(hào)。存款增量方面，在資本市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)加劇，季末月部分存款回流至表內(nèi)的背景下，部分非銀存款流向居民和企業(yè)部門。9月居民存款、企業(yè)存款分別新增2.96萬億/9194億元，同比分別+7600/+1494億元，財(cái)政存款/非銀存款則分別減少8400億元/1.06萬億元。分別同比多減6042億元/少增1.97萬億元。社會(huì)融資規(guī)模單位：億元2024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-04社會(huì)融資規(guī)模單位：億元2024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-09社融存量同比增速8.1%8.0%7.8%7.8%8.0%8.0%8.2%8.4%8.7%8.7%8.9%9.0%8.8%8.7%社融當(dāng)月新增30,32337,63514,12023,28828,53770,54622,33158,96111,59922,89942,25111,30725,66835,338社融同比多增-956-3,691-4,321-1,2669,2115,8127,37210,62612,2572,2769,2663,600-4,655-2,297其中：人民幣貸款-3,001-5,627-1,872-5,904-2,6903,793-3,2455,314-2,465-2,2741,673-3,488-4,158-3,662外幣貸款-411103-862-111-40-1,381-272-8381806211,132803521351表外融資155-1,2971,129805362-283-258-631,386-41-184-9109981,869——委托貸款-7218421020323808-56300-91-157-397-522-190-110——信托貸款705-396-221-106-196-109-901-443-219-5168175-13456——未貼現(xiàn)銀行承兌匯票-478-1,0851,140708535-982699801,696167145-5631,3221,923直接融資2,4292,663-5,3712,63910,8004,17111,1695,28311,5043,5715,4036,587-2,546-1,068——企業(yè)債券融資-1,085-2,576-1919932,582134279-5,1426331,211322712-3652,031——非金融企業(yè)境內(nèi)股票融資-904-198-3769-2451-381852054149274324372——政府債券4,4185,437-5,1431,5778,2423,98610,92810,24010,6662,3195,0325,601-2,505-3,471其他融資-1284672,6551,305779-488-229301,6523991,242608530213信貸數(shù)據(jù)單位：億元2024-082024-092024-102024-112024-122025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-09人民幣貸款當(dāng)月新增9,00015,9005,0005,8009,90051,30010,10036,4002,8006,20022,400-5005,90012,900人民幣貸款同比多增-4,600-7,200-2,384-5,100-1,8002,100-4,4005,500-4,500-3,3001,100-3,100-3,100-3,000其中：居民戶貸款-2,022-3,5851,946-2251,279-5,3632,016447-50-217267-2,793-1,597-1,110——短期貸款-1,604-5151,543-964-171-4,0252,127-67-501-451150-1,671-611-1,279——中長(zhǎng)期貸款-402-3,1703936691,538-1,337-112531435232151-1,200-1,000200非金融企業(yè)及機(jī)關(guān)團(tuán)體貸款-1,088-1,934-3,863-5,721-4,0169,200-5,3005,000-2,500-2,1001,400-700-2,500-2,700——短期貸款-1,499-1,086-130-1,8054352,800-2,0004,600-7002,3004,900-2,6002,500-1,482-8693,0034,5844,460514-40-2,826-3,7163,125-4,920-4,712-2,128-2,360-8,2121,500-7,500-200-1,600-1,700400-3,900-200-500非銀行金融機(jī)構(gòu)貸款-997-860-988-494475-2,257-1,201256-973226391-31225356——其他貸款-493-8215211,34046252085-203-977-1,209-958424772454貨幣增長(zhǎng)22025-012025-022025-032025-042025-052025-062025-072025-082025-09M1同.2%0.4%0.1%1.6%1.5%2.3%4.6%5.6%6.0%7.2%M2同比增速6.3%6.8%7.5%7.1%7.3%7.0%7.0%7.0%8.0%7.9%8.3%8.8%8.8%8.4%M2-M1剪刀差9.3%10.1%9.8%7.8%6.1%6.6%6.9%5.4%6.5%5.6%3.7%3.2%2.8%1.2%（二）3Q25銀行板塊持倉降至歷史低位，投資價(jià)值凸顯3Q251）2Q2519.5%4.14301.153%2Q2052）市場(chǎng)風(fēng)偏提升，銀行股持倉占比下降：三季度成長(zhǎng)風(fēng)格明顯，銀行作為低風(fēng)偏的防御性板塊，受主動(dòng)型公募基金減持。其中增持前五的行業(yè)分別為電子（+69pct、通信（+.91p2.43pc+1.3pc（0.5pc（3.07c.79pc（1.6c（1.43c1.25pc307pct至1.1205Q23的198三季度被動(dòng)指數(shù)型基金規(guī)模大幅擴(kuò)張。三季度全部基金規(guī)模35.9萬億，較二季度上升4.526.8%（+25.5（+22.3萬股（+12.3億股。從持倉市值來看，主要是電子（3133.9億元、非銀金融（2417.8億元）（1923.23Q2521.1（-9.96（-6.62（-1.52。主動(dòng)型基金主要減配機(jī)構(gòu)持倉較重的標(biāo)的。分銀行類型來看，主要減配優(yōu)質(zhì)城商行和股份行，國(guó)有行/股份行/城商行/農(nóng)商