GETTINGTO

GROWTH

INANAGEOFUNCERTAINTY

IMFANNUALREPORT2025

THEWORLDIS

FACINGEXCEPTIONALUNCERTAINTY

Ethiopia

THEGLOBALTRADING

SYSTEMISBEINGRESHAPED.

MAJORTRANSITIONSAREMAKINGTHEECONOMICENVIRONMENT

MORECHALLENGING.

2025ANNUALREPORT1

IMFANNUALREPORT2025

THESEDEVELOPMENTSCOMEONTOPOFTHEUNCERTAINTYCAUSED

BYONGOINGCONFLICTS

ANDMAJORTRANSITIONS

THATMAKETHEECONOMICENVIRONMENTMORE

CHALLENGINGANDUNPREDICTABLE.

Technologicalshiftsandtheartificialintelligence

revolutionaregeneratingsignificantadjustment

evenastheypromisenewopportunities.Natural

disastersandmorefrequentextremeweather

continuetoimposeseveremacroeconomiccostsonmanycountries.

Thetradetensionsandassociatedtarifsare

exacerbatingthelow-growth/high-debtoutlook.

TheIMFlowereditsnear-termgrowthforecasts

inAprilto2.8percentthisyearand3percentfor

2026,andfive-yeargrowthforecastsremainattheirlowestindecades.

Globalinlationisfallingbutataslowerandlesssynchronouspacethanpreviously.Thisisleadingtomorepolicydivergencebetweencentralbanks,withknock-onefectsonassetpricesandexchangerates.

Low-incomecountrieshavebeenhitparticularlyhardbythecurrentexternalenvironment.After

demonstratingresiliencethroughaseriesof

shocks—includingtheCOVID-19pandemicand

spilloversfromRussia’swarinUkraine—theyare

implementingdifficultandmuch-neededreforms

torestoremacroeconomicstability.Nevertheless,

undercurrentconditions,thesecountriesriskbeingknockedofthepathtowardincomeconvergenceandpovertyreduction.

Againstthisbackdrop,theforemosteconomic

challengefacingourmembersisgrowth—orrather,thelackofit.Achievingstrongergrowthwillrequirecountriestodoubledownondomesticefortsto

strengtheneconomicandfinancialstability,and

improvetheirowngrowthpotential.Inthecontextofgreaterglobaluncertainty,theworkstartsathome.

Transformationalreformstoliftproductivityand

boostgrowthareimperative:lessredtape,increasedcompetition,moreentrepreneurship,asimplerand

morecoherenttaxsystem,betterdigitalstructures,higherlevelsofeconomicparticipation,anddeepercapitalmarkets.

Policyefortsareneededtorestorefiscal

sustainabilityandbuildsufficientbuferstomanagefutureshocks,whichcouldbesizableandrecurrent.Thiscanbedonegraduallybutshouldstartnow,soastoleaveroomforpriorityspending.Thelonger

countrieswait,thesharpertheadjustmentcouldbe.

Whileworkingonthehomefront,countries

shouldalsocollaborateinternationallytopromoteastableandpredictabletradeenvironment,facilitatedebtrestructuring,andaddresssharedchallenges.

Intensificationoftradetensionscouldfurtherreducenear-andlong-termgrowthwhiledivergentand

rapidlyshiftingpolicystancesordeterioratingsentimentcouldtriggerdropsinassetprices,exacerbatingriskstofinancialstability.

INSHORT,THECURRENT

ENVIRONMENTDEMANDS

CLARITY,COMMITMENT,ANDCOORDINATION.

TheIMFisdevelopingandtailoringitsadvicetohelpmembersmeettheseexceptionalchallenges.

Tothisend,ithassoughtfreshperspectives

2INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

withthecreationofanewAdvisoryCouncilonEntrepreneurshipandGrowth.

TheIMFwillstayfocusedonitsmandateof

promotingmacroeconomicandfinancialstability,furtherdeepeningitsworkinassessingspilloversfromtradeandindustrialpolicymeasures,and

analyzingexternalimbalances.

Asthegloballandscapeevolves,theIMFremainslexibleandresponsibletothemembership’s

changingneeds,adaptingasnecessaryto

developmentsintheworldeconomyandpolicy

priorities.Thisisillustratedbyanumberofdecisions,includingthemaintenanceofhigher-levelaccess

limits;thereformstoakeyloanvehiclefor

low-incomecountries—thePovertyReductionandGrowthTrust;andtheupdatetotheChargesandSurchargePolicy—allhighlightedbytheManagingDirectorinherletter.

TheIMFisalsodedicatedtoensuringits

recommendationsaremadewithaneyetoprotectingthemostvulnerable.Itspolicyadviceencourages

jobcreation,enhancessocialsafetynets,tacklescorruption,andcontributestoequitableaccesstoresources.Itscapacitydevelopmentstrengthensinstitutionalframeworksandequipspolicymakerswiththeskillstodesignandimplementefectiveeconomicpolicies.

Eightyyearsonfromitsfounding,theFund

continuestowielditsuniqueconveningpowertopromotemultilateralcooperationinaddressing

globalchallenges.Itfacilitatesdialogueamongmembercountriestopromotecollaborationonabroadrangeofcross-borderissues.

Timesandcircumstanceschange,butthe

IMF’scommitmenttofosteringglobalmonetary

cooperation,ensuringfinancialstability,and

promotingsustainableeconomicgrowthendures.

2025ANNUALREPORT3

Jamaica

Figure0.1.

TRADEPOLICY

UNCERTAINTYISOFFTHECHARTS

200520152025

Sources:Caldaraandothers2020;andIMFstafcalculations.

Note:October2024=100.Monthlydata;AprilrelectsaveragetoApril14.

0

500

250

750

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

Messagefromthe

ManagingDirector

4INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

2025ANNUALREPORT5

DearReader,

Theglobaleconomyofthelast12monthshasbeendefinedbychange.Hugetransformationsincludingdigitalization,artificialintelligence,anddemographictransitionsareunderway.Ontopofthis,majorpolicyshiftsarereshapingglobaltradeandcapitallows.

Whiletheglobaleconomyhasbeenresilient

inthefaceofsuccessiveshocksoverrecentyears,theoutlookremainstepid.Thefive-year-ahead

globalgrowthforecaststandsataround3percent,wellbelowthepost-warexpansionaverageof

3.7percent.Wecontinuetoconfrontalowgrowth/highdebtoutlook.

Againstthisbackground,theIMF’smembersfacesignificantchallenges.Amongthemaretheneed

topreservemacroeconomicandfinancialstability,ensuredebtsustainability,addressimbalancesthatexistbetweencountries,andliftgrowthprospects.

Thepathtoachievingthesegoalsrequires

urgentandsubstantialpolicymeasures.Thisstartsathomeandcountriescandomuchtogettheirown

houseinorder.Theycanboostproductivityand

strengthendomesticgrowth;restorefiscalbuferstoprovidespaceformuch-neededinvestmentandinpreparationforfutureshocks;andenhancefinancialstabilityandbuildresilience.

Lookingbeyondtheirownborders,countriesshouldpursuecooperativesolutionstosharedeconomicchallenges.

Inthecontextofanevolvingeconomiclandscape,theFundwillcontinuetosupportitsmembers.Itwilladaptasnecessarytohelpcountriesnavigatethesechallengingtimesandaddressimbalances.

TheFundprovidesthissupportfromaposition

ofstrength.Notonlydoesitmaintainarobust

balancesheet,butithasalsoexceededitstargetforprecautionaryreserves,whichactasafinancialbuferfortheinstitution.

Overthepastyear,ourExecutiveBoardhas

takenimportantdecisionstoensurethattheIMF

remainsastrong,responsivepartner.Theseincludemaintainingelevatedaccesslimitstoprovide

adequatefinancialsupporttocountriesfacingpersistentshocks—ameasurefirstintroducedduringthepandemic.

Aspartofourdeterminationtoexercisefiscal

responsibility,wehaveadvancedcriticalreforms

tothePovertyReductionandGrowthTrustto

bolsterourcapacitytosupportthemostvulnerablecountrieswhileensuringtheTrust’sself-sustainability.

WehavealsoupdatedourChargesand

SurchargePolicy.Thischangewillreduceborrowingcostsforourmembersbyanestimated$1.2billionannuallywhileatthesametimemaintainingthe

IMF’scapacitytofurtherstrengthenitsownfinancialbufers.Thesestepsrelectourcommitmentto

serveallourmembers—withlexibility,responsibility,andfairness.

Timeschange,butweremainfocusedonourcoremission:tohelpestablishtheconditionsformacroeconomicstrengthandstabilityincludingthroughthepromotionofdurablegrowth,whileachievingpriceandfinancialstability.

Thestateofchangeincreasesthechallenge

ofgoodpolicymaking,butinchallengethereis

opportunity.Weshouldseizethismoment.Withtherightpolicychoices,abetterbalanced,more

sustainableandprosperousworldiswithinreach.

KRISTALINAGEORGIEVA

ManagingDirector

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

6INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

WHATWE

DO

TheIMFworkstohelpitsmembersattainorsustainmacroeconomic

stabilityandfosterssustainablegrowthandprosperityforallits

191membercountriesthroughthefollowing:

ECONOMICSURVEILLANCE

133countryhealthchecks

Throughsurveillance,theIMFmonitorsthe

internationalmonetarysystem,aswellasthe

economicandfinancialpoliciesofitsmember

countries.Aspartofthiswork,carriedoutatboth

thecountryandgloballevels,theIMFhighlights

possibleriskstostabilityandadvisesregarding

policyadjustments.Countrysurveillanceincludes

regular(usuallyannual)consultationswithindividualmembercountries,knownasArticleIVconsultations.

UndertheFinancialSectorAssessmentProgram

(FSAP),theIMFalsoconductsregularin-depth

analysisofsystemicallyimportantfinancialsectors.

Thailand

LENDING

Atotalof$63billionto20

countries,includingabout$9

billionto13low-incomecountries

TheIMFprovidesfinancingtomembercountriesexperiencingactual,potential,orprospective

balanceofpaymentsneedstohelpthemrebuildtheirinternationalreservesandsolvetheirbalance

ofpaymentsproblems,whilefosteringstrong

economicgrowth.Althoughmostfinancingis

insupportofaprogram,theIMFalsoprovides

fast-disbursingemergencyfinancingwithlimitedconditionality—suchfinancingwasprovidedat

unprecedentedlevelsfollowingtheonsetoftheCOVID-19pandemic.

CAPACITYDEVELOPMENT

$382millionforhands-ontechnical

advice,policy-orientedtraining,

andpeerlearning

TheIMFworkswithcountriestostrengthentheireconomicinstitutionsbyprovidingtechnical

assistanceandtrainingoncriticaleconomicandfinancialsectorissues.Thisworkhelpscountriesimplementmoreefectiveeconomicandfinancialsectorpoliciesandtacklecomplexchallenges.

TheIMFsharesitsknowledge—andthatofitsmembers—withgovernmentinstitutionssuchasfinanceministries,centralbanks,statistical

agencies,financialsupervisoryagencies,and

revenueadministrationsthroughhands-onadvice,

training,andpeer-to-peerlearning.IMFcapacity

development(CD)isdeliveredinpersonand

remotelybyIMFstafmembers,long-termin-countryresidentadvisors,advisorsatoneofthe17regionalCDcenters,andshort-termexperts,aswellas

throughclassroomtraining,hands-onworkshopsandseminars,andfreeonlinecourses.

WhatWeDocontinuesonpage24?

2025ANNUALREPORT7

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

WHOWE

ARE

TheIMFhasamanagementteam

and18departmentsthatcarryoutits

country,policy,analytical,andtechnical

work.Alistoftheinstitution’ssenior

officialscanbefoundonpage67,and

itsorganizationalchartcanbefoundon

theIMFwebpageSeniorOfficialsofthe

InternationalMonetaryFund.

WhoWeArecontinuesonpage60?

UnitedStates

8INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

2025ANNUALREPORT9

INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

FOSTERING

GROWTHIN

ANAGEOFTRANSITION

INSIDE

12

PARTONE

INFOCUS

12

PURSUING

DURABLEGROWTH

INANUNCERTAIN

WORLD

Policymakersmust

resolvetradetensions,

safeguardstability,and

implementgrowth-

orientedreformsto

achievedurablegrowth

inanuncertainworld.

16

RISINGDEBT

LEVELSANDFISCAL

ADJUSTMENTS

Globalpublicdebtis

rising,requiringurgent

fiscaladjustmentsto

ensuresustainability

andresilienceamid

economicuncertainties

andspendingpressures.

20

RISINGFINANCIAL

STABILITY

RISKS

Globalfinancialstability

riskshaveincreaseddue

totighteningconditions,

tradeuncertainty,and

vulnerabilitiesincapital

markets,institutions,and

sovereigndebt.

10INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

IMFAR2025

SEEMORE

ONLINE

IMF.ORG/AR2025

24

PARTTWO

WHATWEDO

60

PARTTHREE

WHOWEARE

24

ECONOMICSURVEILLANCE

27

LENDING

44

CAPACITYDEVELOPMENT

64

MANAGEMENTTEAM

66

EXECUTIVEDIRECTORS

ANDALTERNATES

68

RESOURCES

76

ACCOUNTABILITYAND

TRANSPARENCY

84

CORPORATESOCIAL

RESPONSIBILITYUnitedStates

2025ANNUALREPORT11

PARTONE:INFOCUS

INFOCUS

COUNTRIESMUST

ENCOURAGEINNOVATION,

INVESTININFRASTRUCTURE,ANDSTREAMLINE

REGULATORY

ENVIRONMENTS.

UnitedStates

12INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

PURSUING

DURABLE

GROWTHIN

ANUNCERTAINWORLD

T

heglobaleconomyisatacrossroads.Despitetheworldeconomy’s

considerableresilienceoverthepastfiveyears,tradetensionshavesoaredsincethepublicationoftheprevious

AnnualReport,andpolicyuncertaintyhasincreased.Againstthisbackdrop,achievingsustainedgrowthhasbecomemorechallenging.

Tradeandcapitallowsarebeingrewired,andsignificantpolicyshiftsareunderwayinmajor

economies.Authoritiesarecontendingwith

tighteningfinancialconditionsandhighermarketvolatility,andpolicybufershavebeendepletedbytheshocksofrecentyears.

Policymakersmustrapidlyconfrontthreekey

priorities.First,theyneedtoresolvetradetensionsandaddressunderlyingimbalances.Arules-basedand

levelplayingfieldisimperative,avoidingdistortive

policiesdesignedtosecureacompetitiveadvantageandmeasuresthatimpedethelowoftrade.

Thesecondpriorityistoacttogethertosafeguardeconomicandfinancialstability.

Countriescanbestachievethisbygetting

Figure1.1.

Growthperformanceandforecasts

(Percent)

10

8

6

4

2

0

World

AEs

EMDEsUS

EuroareaChina

2000–142015–232024–25

Source:IMFstaffcalculations.

Note:AEs=advancedeconomies;EMDEs=emergingmarketanddevelopingeconomies.

2025ANNUALREPORT13

14INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

PARTONE:INFOCUS

Figure1.2.

Globaloutputgap

(Percent)

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

20171819202122232425

Source:IMFstaffcalculations.

theirownhouseinorderthroughcredibleand

realisticadjustmentplans.Thiswillrequiremedium-termfiscalconsolidationandframeworkstoreducedebtandrebuildfiscalbufers.Targetedfiscal

reformswillalsobenecessary,throughexpenditurereprioritizationinadvancedeconomiesandrevenuemobilizationinemergingmarketanddeveloping

economies,oramixofboth,dependingoncountry-specificcircumstances.

Simultaneously,authoritiesmayneedtoimplementtimely,targeted,andtemporarysupporttomitigatetheimpactofreformsandprotectthemostvulnerable.

Thecurrentenvironmentalsodemandsagilepoliciestomitigateshocks,withcentralbanks

remainingacutelyfocusedondeliveringlowandstableinlation.

Thepursuitofgrowthwillalsorequireinternationalcooperation,particularlytoresolveglobalimbalances.

2025ANNUALREPORT15

Uzbekistan

Russia

Internalbalancesbetweensavingsandinvestmentarefundamental,andcantilttoofaronewayoranother.Theycandriveexternalcurrentaccountbalancesandbyextension,capitallows.Rebalancingcanenhancestabilitynotonlyinternally,butalsoexternally,and

globally.Allcountriescanpursuepoliciesforbetterinternalandexternalbalance,supportingcollectiveresilienceandwell-being.

Thethirdpriorityistodoubledownongrowth-

orientedreformstoliftproductivityandpotential

output.Countriesmustprioritizedomesticpolicy

andstructuralreformsinlabor,product,andfinancialmarkets(whilemaintainingregulatoryrigor).

Tothatend,countriesmustencourage

innovation,investininfrastructure,andstreamlineregulatoryenvironments.Policiesthatpromote

entrepreneurshipandcompetitionwillbeessentialfordrivingproductivityandjobcreation,while

tacklingcorruptionwillbeessentialtoleveltheplayingfieldandavoiddistortivepolicies.

Inaddition,technologicalprogress,includingthatrelatedtodigitalizationandartificialintelligencecanfurtherenhanceproductivityandpotentialgrowth.

Althoughglobalgrowthfacessignificant

obstacles,thefutureisnotpredetermined.Throughdeliberateandwell-calibratedpolicies,countriescanharnesstransformativeforcesandmitigaterisks.

Despitethecurrentchallengingconditions,the

IMFwillcontinuetoserveasatrustedadvisorto

policymakers,areliablelenderoflastresortduring

crisestoresolvebalanceofpaymentsproblems,

achampionofstrongpolicyframeworks,anda

convenertoconfrontcommoneconomicchallenges.Aswecontinuouslyadapttochangingconditions,

wewillremainengagedwithourmemberstomeettheirneedsoverthemediumandlongterm.

PARTONE:INFOCUS

PROACTIVEAND

COORDINATEDEFFORTS

NOWAREKEYTO

FISCALSUSTAINABILITYANDTOENSURINGRESILIENCE

INTHELONGTERM.

16IINTERNATIIONALMONETARYFUND

Thailand

RISINGDEBTLEVELS

ANDFISCAL

ADJUSTMENTS

lobalpublicdebtishigh,andrising.It

exceeded$100trillionin2024andisexpectedtoapproach100percentofglobalGDPby

decade’send.Thefinalfiguremaywellbeevenhigherbecauseoflargespendingpressuresand

G

achronicunderestimationofdebtprojections.

Theglobalfiscalsituationdeterioratedin2024,butwith

significantdiferencesacrosscountries.Theglobalfiscaldeficitreachedanaverageof5.1percentofGDP,whereaspublicdebtroseby1percentagepointto92.3percentofGDP.ThisrelectsthecontinuinglegaciesofhighspendingfromtheCOVID-19

pandemicandrisingnetinterestexpenses.

Debtservicingcostsarecurrentlysqueezingthespace

availabletofinancemuch-neededinvestmentorcriticalspendingfordevelopment,whileashortfallinforeignaidposesan

additionalriskforlow-incomecountries.

Althoughabouttwo-thirdsofcountriesanticipatestabilizingorreducingtheirdebtby2029,levelswillremainelevated

comparedwithprepandemicfigures.

Currently,expansivefiscalpoliciesarecontributingtoincreasedtermpremiumsongovernmentbonds—raisingborrowingcosts

anddampeningeconomicactivity.Leftunaddressed,these

pressurescouldleadtosolvencyproblemsformanyvulnerable

countries.Already,53percentoflow-incomedevelopingcountriesand23percentofemergingmarketeconomiesareathighriskofdebtdistressorarealreadyindebtdistress.

2025ANNUALREPORT17

Moreover,thesignificantuncertaintydiscussedinPursuingDurableGrowthinanUncertainWorld,onpage12isimpactingfiscaloutlooksaswellasgrowth.Recentanalysissuggeststhat

PARTONE:INFOCUS

18INTERNATIONALMONETARYFUND

Figure1.3.

Jan.1995

Jan.96

Jan.97

Jan.98

Jan.99

Jan.2000

Jan.01

Jan.02

Jan.03

Jan.04

Jan.05

Jan.06

Jan.07

Jan.08

Jan.09

Jan.10

Jan.11

Jan.12

Jan.13

Jan.14

Jan.15

Jan.16

Jan.17

Jan.18

Jan.19

Jan.20

Jan.21

Jan.22

Jan.23

Jan.24

Jan.25

Geopoliticalrisk,tradepolicy,andworlduncertaintyindices

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

VIXIndex

WorldUncertaintyIndex(rightscale)TradePolicyUncertaintyIndex

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

Sources:FiscalPolicyUncertaintyIndex:Hong,Nguyen,andKe2024;GeopoliticalRiskIndex:CaldaraandIacoviello2022;TradePolicy

UncertaintyIndex:Caldaraandothers2020;andWorldUncertainty

Index:Ahir,Bloom,andFurceri2022.

Note:Ahighernumbermeanshigheruncertaintyandviceversa.Theleftscalepresentstheindexrelativeto2008(whereindex=100in2008),meaningavalueof200representsuncertaintythatistwiceashighasin2008.Therightscalestandardizestheindexwithameanof100anda

standarddeviationof1,meaningthatanincreaseof1unitycorrespondstoaone-standard-deviationincrease.

increasedgeoeconomicuncertaintyislinkedtoa

riseinpublicdebtofabout4.5percentofGDPin

themediumterm.Thisislargelyaresultofwideningfiscaldeficits,withrisingexpenditureandfalling

revenues.

Astrategicpivotinfiscalpolicyisurgentlyneeded,focusedongrowth-orientedfiscaladjustments,

adherencetostricterspendingrules,andreform

ofkeyexpenditureprogramssuchaspensionsandenergysubsidies,whichareasignificantpartof

nationalbudgets.

Countrieswithunsustainablepublicdebtneedtobeproactiveinrestoringsustainability,includinginsomecasesbymakingthedifficultdecisionto

seekdebtrestructuring.Tothatend,theGlobal

SovereignDebtRoundtable,whichtheIMF

cochairs,publishedtheRestructuringPlaybookto

Figure1.4.

Responsetotheoccurrenceofadomesticgeopoliticalriskevent

(Percentagepoints,monthly)

AllcountriesEmergingmarkets

1.0

0.5

0.0

-0.5-1.0-2.0-2.5

-3.0

FirmstockreturnsSovereignCDSpremium

Sources:BloombergFinanceL.P.;CaldaraandIacoviello2022;IMFWorldEconomicOutlookdatabase;LSEGDatastream;andIMFstaffcalculations.

Note:CDS=creditdefaultswap.

helpcountryauthoritieswithkeysteps,concepts,

andprocesseswhenconsideringdebtrestructuring.

Mostcountriescanadoptapolicyofgradualfiscaladjustmenttoaddressrisingglobalpublicdebtandmitigateassociatedrisks.Thiswouldalsohavethe

benefitofproducingtheneededfiscalbuferstonavigateprevailingglobaluncertainties.

Countrieswithlimitedroomforfiscalmaneuversmustreprioritizepublicspending.Thosewith

morespacecanchoosetoexpandinlinewiththeirmedium-termgoals.Advancedeconomieswith

agingpopulationsshouldpromoteentitlement

reformsandbroadentaxbases.Emergingmarket

anddevelopingeconomiescanmobilizerevenuebyreformingtaxsystems,phasingoutenergysubsidies,andrationalizingpublicspending.

Theneedforswift,butgradual,fiscalactionis

imperative.Delayingadjustmentsmeansmore

substantialandpossiblymoredisruptivemeasuresinthefuture.Proactiveandcoordinatedefortsnowarekeytofiscalsustainabilityandtoensuringresilienceinthelongterm.

2025ANNUALREPORT19

Table1.1.Generalgovernmentfiscalbalance,2019–30:overallbalance

(PercentageofGDP,unlessnotedotherwise)

201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

World

-3.5

-9.5

-6.3

-3.7

-4.9

-5.0

-5.1

-4.7

-4.5

-4.5

-4.5

-4.6

AdvancedEconomies

-3.0

-10.3

-7.2

-3.7

-4.6

-4.7

-4.3

-3.9

-3.8

-3.9

-3.9

-4.0

AdvancedEconomiesexcl.US

-1.0

-7.6

-4.3

-3.7

-2.5

-2.6

-2.5

-2.5

-2.4

-2.5

-2.6

-2.6

Canada

0.0

-10.9

-3.1

-3.7

0.1

-2.1

-1.9

-1.6

-1.4

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

EuroArea

-0.5

-7.0

-5.1

-3.7

-3.6

-3.1

-3.2

-3.4

-3.5

-3.5

-3.6

-3.7

France

-2.4

-8.9

-6.6

-3.7

-5.4

-5.8

-5.5

-5.9

-6.1

-6.1

-6.0

-6.1

Germany

1.3

-4.4

-3.2

-3.7

-2.5

-2.8

-3.0

-3.5

-3.9

-4.1

-4.3

-4.4

Italy

-1.5

-9.4

-8.9

-3.7

-7.2

-3.4

-3.3

-2.8

-2.6

-2.4

-2.5

-2.5

Spain1

-3.0

-10.0

-6.7

-3.7

-3.5

-3.2

-2.7

-2.4

-2.3

-2.2

-2.1

-2.0

Japan

-3.0

-9.1

-6.1

-3.7

-2.3

-2.5

-2.9

-3.1

-3.3

-4.0

-4.6

-5.3

UnitedKingdom

-2.5

-13.2

-7.7

-3.7

-6.1

-5.7

-4.4

-3.7

-3.1

-2.8

-2.6

-2.3

UnitedStates

-5.8

-14.1

-11.4

-3.7

-7.2

-7.3

-6.5

-5.5

-5.4

-5.6

-5.5

-5.6

OtherAdvancedEconomies

-0.1

-4.7

-1.1

-3.7

-0.2

-0.5

-0.6

-0.3

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

EmergingMarketandDevelopingEconomies

-4.4

-8.4

-5.0

-3.7

-5.2

-5.5

-6.1

-5.9

-5.5

-5.4

-5.3

-5.3

EmergingMarketand

Middle-IncomeEconomies

-4.4

-8.6

-5.0

-3.7

-5.3

-5.6

-6.3

-6.1

-5.6

-5.5

-5.4

-5.4

EmergingMarketsexcl.China

-3.1

-7.8

-4.2

-3.7

-4.2

-4.3

-4.5

-4.2

-3.8

-3.5

-3.4

-3.3

ExcludingMENAOilProducers

-4.6

-8.7

-5.3

-3.7

-5.8

-6.0

-6.5

-6.3

-5.9

-5.8

-5.7

-5.7

Asia

-5.6

-9.4

-6.3

-3.7

-6.4

-6.7

-7.6

-7.6

-7.2

-7.2

-7.1

-7.1

China2

-6.0

-9.6

-5.9

-3.7

-6.7

-7.3

-8.6

-8.5

-8.1

-8.1

-8.0

-8.1

India

-7.7

-12.9

-9.4

-3.7

-7.9

-7.4

-6.9

-7.2

-7.1

-7.0

-6.8

-6.7

Vietnam

-0.4

-2.9

-1.4

-3.7

-2.4

-1.6

-3.4

-3.2

-3.0

-2.9

-2.9

-2.9

Europe

-0.6

-5.4

-1.7

-3.7

-4.2

-4.4

-4.0

-3.4

-3.0

-2.8

-2.7

-2.7

Russia

1.9

-4.0

0.8

-3.7

-2.5

-2.2

-1.0

-1.2

-1.1

-1.1

-1.2

-1.3

LatinAmerica

-3.7

-8.2

-3.9

-3.7

-5.2

-4.8

-4.8

-4.0

-3.4

-3.1

-2.9

-2.9

Brazil

-4.9

-11.6

-2.6

-3.7

-7.7

-6.6

-8.5

-7.7

-6.3

-5.2

-4.9

-4.7

Mexico

-2.3

-4.3

-3.7

-3.7

-4.3

-5.7

-4.0

-3.3

-2.9

-2.9

-2.9

-2.9

MENA

-2.3

-8.2

-1.9

-3.7

0.1

-1.6

-3.4

-3.2

-2.4

-1.8

-1.5

-1.2

SaudiArabia

-4.2

-10.7

-2.2

-3.7

-2.0

-2.8

-4.9

-4.9

-4.0

-3.7

-3.3

-3.1

SouthAfrica

-5.1

-9.6

-5.5

-3.7

-5.4

-6.1

-6.6

-6.1

-5.9

-5.8

-5.7

-5.6

Low-IncomeDevelopingCountries

-4.1

-5.4

-4.6

-3.7

-3.9

-3.4

-3.5

-3.3

-3.1

-3.1

-3.2

-3.2

Kenya

-7.4

-8.1

-7.2

-3.7

-5.7

-5.5

-5.4

-5.0

-4.4

-3.9

-3.6

-3.6

Nigeria

-4.7

-5.6

-5.5

-3.7

-4.2

-3.4

-4.5

-4.5

-3.9

-4.3

-4.7

-4.7

OilProducers

-0.1

-7.3

-0.6

-3.7

0.5

-0.9

-1.2

-1.3

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.5

Memorandum

WorldOutput(percent)

2.9

-2.7

6.6

3.6

3.5

3.3

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.1

Source:IMFstaffcalculationsandprojections.

Note:ThecalculationsandprojectionsarebasedonstatisticalinformationavailablethroughApril14,2025,butmaynotrelectthelatestpublisheddatainallcases.Forthedateofthelatestdataupdateforeacheconomy,pleaserefertothenotesprovidedintheonlineWorldEconomicOutlookdatabase.

AllcountryaveragesareweightedbynominalGDPconvertedtoUSdollars(adjustedbypurchasingpowerparityonlyforworldoutput)ataveragemarketexchangeratesintheyearsindicatedandbasedondataavailability.ProjectionsarebasedonIMFstaffassessmentsofcurrentpolicies.Forcountry-specificdetails,see"DataandConventions"andTablesA,B,C,andDintheMethodologicalandStatisticalAppendix.excl.=excluding;MENA=MiddleEastandNorthAfrica.

1Includingfinancialsectorsupport.

2China’sdeficitandpublicdebtnumberspresentedinthistablecoveranarrowerperimeterofthegeneralgovernmentthantheIMFstaffestimatesinChinaArticleIVreports(seeIMF2024forareconciliationofthetwoestimates).

PARTONE:INFOCUS

20INTERNATIONALMONETARYF