1、適應研究框架Framework for climate adaptation research 潘家華 鄭艷 吳向陽 Pan Jiahua, ZHENG Yan，WU Xiangyang中國社會科學院 (CASS)城市發(fā)展與環(huán)境研究中心(IUE)可持續(xù)發(fā)展研究中心(RCSD),內(nèi)容 contents,1,1,2,3,一、基本概念 Basic Conception Vulnerability indicators are related to development in some ways. government effectiveness; Voice/accountability; san

2、itation ranked the top 3 importance for capacity. （Nick Brooks, W. Neil Adger, P. Mick Kelly，2004）,2.5 適應的主要領(lǐng)域 Identify key areas to adaptation,中國適應氣候變化項目（ACCC） 案例研究& 優(yōu)先領(lǐng)域,農(nóng)業(yè)&水資源Agriculture & water resources,極端氣候災害&水資源&健康 Extremes & water resources & health,畜牧業(yè)&草原生態(tài)系統(tǒng)&水資源 Livestock & grassland & wat

3、er resources,寧夏 Ningxia,廣東 Guangdong,內(nèi)蒙古 Inner Mongolia,農(nóng)業(yè) Agriculture 畜牧業(yè) Livestock 生態(tài)系統(tǒng) Eco-system 水資源 Water resources 健康 Health,三、適應規(guī)劃 Adaptation planning,3.1 規(guī)劃步驟 planning approaches,1, 界定氣候變化風險 Climate modeling & extremes,2, 評估生態(tài)系統(tǒng)脆弱性 Assess historical and current Risk in eco-system,5,適應政策選擇 Id

4、entify adaptation measures,6, 適應戰(zhàn)略/規(guī)劃 Adaptation strategy & planning,4,評估社會經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)脆弱性 （風險影響評估） Assess socio-economic risk losses in history and future,3,未來社會經(jīng)濟情景預估 Socio-economic scenarios,6,適應成本效益分析 CBA analysis on adaptation actions,Vulnerability Assessment,Adaptation Planning,Climate Science,評估evalu

5、ation,適應氣候變化國家戰(zhàn)略 Adaptation Strategic,工程性適應 Engineering Adaptation,技術(shù)性適應 Technical Adaptation,制度性適應 Institutional Adaptation,發(fā)展型適應 Development adaptation,增量型適應 Incremental Adaptation,3.2 戰(zhàn)略框架 strategic framework,3.3 適應對策選擇 identify adaptation measures options,3.4 對策優(yōu)化、成本效益分析 optimizing options & CBA

6、 analysis,適應成本(adaptation costs):即管理氣候風險所支出的投資，包括工程型適應措施、技術(shù)性適應措施和制度性適應措施。 適應效益(adaptation benefits)：減少氣候風險的損失，發(fā)展、減貧、促進就業(yè)，社會公平.,例：增量型適應與發(fā)展型適應的成本效益分析 Comparing the Incremental Adapt. With Development Adapt. Under a CBA perspective,3.5 形成地方、國家適應規(guī)劃 Support for provincial adaptation strategy,各試點省，形成地方適應規(guī)劃 Pilot research contributing for provincial plans 整合省級規(guī)劃，形成國家適應戰(zhàn)略 Integrate provincial plans, formulating the natl Strategic report.,3