1、氣候變化自然風(fēng)險評估工作介紹 Presentation on Physical Impacts Work,Yinlong XU （許 吟?。?Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Beijing, China Tel: +86 10 8210 9766; Tel comprehensively analyze the experience of past adapting to extreme drou

2、ght and floods 目標(biāo)3：氣候變化對未來水資源的可能影響評估 Objective 3：Assess the potential impact of climate change on future water resources over China 目標(biāo)4：水利適應(yīng)氣候變化的國家戰(zhàn)略和對策 Objective 4: Address national adaptation strategy of water industry to climate change.,地方層面工作計劃 Province-level work plan,寧夏 Ningxia 農(nóng)業(yè) Agriculture

3、水資源 Water Resources 適應(yīng)技術(shù)示范 Adaptation case study 內(nèi)蒙 Inner Mongolia 草地畜牧業(yè) Grassland-livestock 水資源 Water resources 適應(yīng)案例研究 Adaptation case study,省份1：內(nèi)蒙古 Province 1： Inner Mongolia, ：草地畜牧業(yè)（內(nèi)蒙古農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)） ：Grassland-livestock (IM Agricultural University),目標(biāo)1：氣候變化對內(nèi)蒙古草地畜牧業(yè)的影響評價 Objective 1 Climate change impact

4、s risk assessment for whole Inner Mongolia grassland-livestock 目標(biāo)2：未來氣候變化情景下內(nèi)蒙古草地畜牧業(yè)的影響預(yù)估 Objective 2 Assess the CC risk impact on grassland-livestock for whole Inner Mongolia grassland under the future climate scenarios, ：水資源（內(nèi)蒙古水利局） ： Water Resources (Hydrological Bureau of Inner Mongolia),目標(biāo)1：氣候變

5、化對內(nèi)蒙古水資源的影響評估 Objective 1 Detection of climatic change impacts on Inner Mongolia water resource 目標(biāo)2：氣候變化對未來水資源的可能影響評估 Objective 2 Future risk assessment 目標(biāo)3：不同草原類型區(qū)適應(yīng)案例研究 Objective 3 Case study of different grassland type region about water resources, ：適應(yīng)案例研究 ： Typical Case Study for Adaptation Reco

6、mmendations,目標(biāo)1：典型草原草地畜牧業(yè)區(qū)錫林浩特 Objective 1 Typical steppe grassland and animal husbandry area Xilinhaote 目標(biāo)2：渾善達(dá)克沙地草地農(nóng)業(yè)區(qū)多倫 Objective 2 Sandy grassland agricultural area - Doron 目標(biāo)3：荒漠草原農(nóng)牧交錯帶四子王旗 Objective 3 Ecotone of desert and grassland - Siziwangqi,省份2：寧夏 Province 2： Ningxia, ：農(nóng)業(yè)（寧夏氣象研究所） ： Agric

7、ulture (Ningxia Meteorological Research Institute),目標(biāo)1：歷史氣候變化對寧夏農(nóng)業(yè)影響的檢測 Objective 1 Analyze the impact of present climate change on agriculture in Ningxia 目標(biāo)2：未來影響的評估。評估未來氣候變化條件下對寧夏農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)的可能影響和脆弱性，考慮極端氣候事件（側(cè)重在干旱、高溫等）的影響，進(jìn)行農(nóng)業(yè)綜合適應(yīng)氣候變化措施的示范和效果評估，從農(nóng)業(yè)氣象災(zāi)害的角度提出對農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)有指導(dǎo)意義的適應(yīng)對策建議。 Objective 2 Assess the futur

8、e agricultural production risk of climate change. Assess the possible impact and vulnerability of climate change on agricultural production in Ningxia, in terms of extreme climate events, especially drought and hot temperature events.; demonstrate and evaluate the comprehensive technologies to adapt

9、 to climate change; provide indicative suggestion in adapting to agro-meteorological hazards. 目標(biāo)3：氣候變化綜合對策分析 Objective 3 Comprehensive agricultural adaptation recommendations to climate change, ：水資源（寧夏水利局） ： Water Resources (Hydrological Bureau of Ningxia),目標(biāo)1：構(gòu)建全國層面的分布式氣候變化對水資源影響評估模型 Objective 1 Bu

10、ild distributed assessment model in Ningxia 目標(biāo)2：氣候變化對歷史水資源的影響檢測 Objective 2 Risk assessments for the main rivers in NX 目標(biāo)3：氣候變化對未來水資源的可能影響評估 Objective 3 Water balance assessment for case study area and policy recommendations, ：適應(yīng)案例研究 ： Typical Case Study for Adaptation Recommendations,目標(biāo)1：主要研究氣候變暖條件

11、下推行冬小麥復(fù)種牧草、實現(xiàn)“一年兩季”、提高冷涼山區(qū)農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)效益的可行性 Objective 1 Under the condition of climate warming, Mainly to study the implementation of revaccination of winter wheat and pasture, to achieve one-year two seasons, and promote the feasibility of agricultural production efficiency in cold mountain areas. 目標(biāo)2：主要進(jìn)

12、行氣候變暖條件下中晚熟玉米新品種引進(jìn)與示范栽培 Objective 2 Under the condition of climate warming, mainly to introduce and cultivate new varieties of late-maturing maize 目標(biāo)3：主要進(jìn)行適應(yīng)氣候變暖條件下中晚熟馬鈴薯新品種引進(jìn)與示范栽培 Objective 3 Under the condition of adaptation to climate warming, mainly to introduce and cultivate new varieties of la

13、te-maturing potatoes. 目標(biāo)4：主要進(jìn)行豆科牧草（紫花苜蓿、紅豆草）豐產(chǎn)及養(yǎng)畜利用技術(shù)示范研究 Objective 4 Mainly to study the high yield of leguminous forage (alfalfa, Onobrychis) and usage of technology in livestock,Whats new relative to the former projects,Policy-oriented Question-based From runoff to hydrology concentration and rou

14、ting Typical regions highlighted More practical for case study Combination for the method of top-down and bottom-up Less dependence on models,Provincial-level Risk Assessment,National-level Risk Assessment,Case Study Areas,National-level Policy Recommendations,Provincial-level Policy Recommendations,Local Adaptation Policy Recommendations,Shortcomings and the next-step work,Still in draft Lack of