1、獲取報告1、2、3、每周群內7+報告；當日華爾街日報、4、行研報告均為公開利歸原作者所有，起點財經僅分發(fā)做內部學習。掃一掃 關注公號回復：加入“起點財經”群。MACROECONOMICSThird Edition W. W. NORTON & COMPANYNEW YORK LONDON MACROECONOMICSThird EditionCharles I. JonesStanford University, Graduate School of BusinessW. W. Norton & Company has been independent since its fo

2、unding in 1923, when William Warder Norton and Mary D. Herter Norton first published lectures delivered at the Peoples Institute, the adult education division of New York Citys Cooper Union. The firm soon expanded its program beyond the Institute, publishing books by celebrated academics from Americ

3、a and abroad. By mid-century, the two major pillars of Nortons publishing programtrade books and college textswere firmly established. In the 1950s, the Norton family transferred control of the company to its employees, and todaywith a staff of four hundred and a comparable number of trade, college,

4、 and professional titles published each yearW. W. Norton & Company stands as the largest and oldest publishing houseowned wholly by its employees.Copyright © 2014, 2011, 2010, 2008 by W. W. Norton & Company, Inc. sPrinted in the United States of AmericaEditor: Jack RepcheckDevelopmental

5、 Editor: Susan Gaustad Managing Editor, College: Marian Johnson Project Editor: Sujin HongProduction Manager: Eric Pier-Hocking Copyeditors: Christopher Curioli Emedia Editor: Cassie del Pilar Editorial Assistant: Theresia Kowara Art Director: Rubina YehArtist: John McAusland Designer: Lissi Sigillo

6、 Composition: JouveManufacturing: Quad GraphicsLibrary of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Jones, Charles I. (Charles Irving)Macroeconomics / Charles I. Jones, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business. Third Edition.pages cmIncludes bibliographical references and index.ISBN 978-0-393-

7、92390-2 (hardcover : alk. paper) 1. Macroeconomics. I. Title. HB172.5.J65 2014339dc23W. W. Norton & Company, Inc., 500 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10110 2013041076W. W. Norton & Company1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0., Castle House, 75/76 Wells Street, London W1T 3QTTo Terry; for Audrey andBRIEF CONTENTS

8、>/B PRELIMINARIES1 Introduction to Macroeconomics 42 Measuring the Macroeconomy 18>/B THE LONG RUN345678An Overview of Long-Run Economic Growth 42A Mof Production 68The Solow Growth MGrowth and Ideas 13499The Labor Market, Wages, and UnemploymentInflation 202172>/B ! THE SHORT RUN9101112131

9、415An Introduction to the Short Run 230 The Great Recession: A First Look 251 The IS Curve 274Monetary Policy and the Phillips Curve 305Stabilization Policy and the AS/AD Framework The Great Recession and the Short-Run M341379DSGE Ms: The Frontier of Business Cycle Research406>/B " APPLICATI

10、ONS AND MICROFOUNDATIONS161718192021Consumption 440Investment 463The Government and the Macroeconomy 490 International Trade 514Exchange Rates and International Finance 540Parting Thoughts 576CONTENTS2.3Measuring Changes over Time 29 A Simple Example: Where Real GDP Doesnt Change 30A Second Example:

11、 Where Real GDP Changes 31Quantity Indexes: Laspeyres, Paasche, and Chain Weighting 32Price Indexes and Inflation 33Using Chain-Weighted Data 33Comparing Economic Performance across Countries 34Preface xviiAcknowledgments xxiiiAbout the Author xxvii>/B PRELIMINARIESIntroduction to2.411.11.2Macroe

12、conomics 4What Is Macroeconomics? 5How Macroeconomics Studies Key Questions 9Summary 36Key Concepts 37Review Questions 37Exercises 37Worked Exercise 391.3An Overview of the BookThe Long Run 11The Short Run 1211Issues for the Future13>/B THE LONG RUNAn Overview of Long-RunSummary 14Key Concepts 14

13、 Review Questions Exercises 1533.13.23.315Economic Growth 42Introduction 43Growth over the Very Long Run Modern Economic Growth 45 The Definition of Economic Growth A Population Growth Example 47The Rule of 70 and the Ratio ScaleU.S. GDP on a Ratio Scale 50Calculating Growth Rates 51Worked Exercise

14、1743Measuring the MacroeconomyIntroduction 1922.12.2451848Measuring the State of the Economy Production Expenditure Income 20 The Expenditure Approach to GDP 21 The Income Approach to GDP 24The Production Approach to GDP 25What Is Included in GDP and Whats Not?193.4Modern Growth around the World 52A

15、 Broad Sample of Countries 53Some Useful Properties of Growth Rates 563.526ixx | Contents3.63.73.8The Costs of Economic GrowthInvestment 10459The MSummarized 104A Long-RunAdditional Resources59605.35.4Prices and the Real Interest Rate 105Solving the Solow M106Summary 61 Growth Rules Key ConceptsUsin

16、g the Solow Diagram 108 Output and Consumption in the Solow Diagram 109Solving Mathematically for the Steady State 109Looking at Data through the Lens of6262Review Questions Exercises 63 Worked Exercises625.566the Solow M111The Capital-Output Ratio 111Differences in Y/L 111Understanding the Steady S

17、tate 113 Economic Growth in the Solow Meanwhile, Back on the Family Farm 114Some Economic Experiments 115 An Increase in the Investment Rate 116 A Rise in the Depreciation Rate 117 Experiments on Your Own 11944.14.2A Mof Production685.65.7Introduction 69114A Mof Production70Setting Up the M705.8Allo

18、cating Resources 71Solving the M: General Equilibrium74Interpreting the Solution 76Analyzing the Production M4.3795.9The Principle of Transition Dynamics 120Comparing Ms with Data 79Understanding Differences in Growth RatesStrengths and Weaknesses of the121The Empirical Fit of the Production M Produ

19、ctivity Differences: Improving the805.10Solow M125Fit of the M844.4Understanding TFP DifferencesHuman Capital 88Technology 89Institutions 89Misallocation 91Evaluating the Production MSummary 126Key Concepts 127Review Questions 127Exercises 127Worked Exercises 131884.59366.16.2Growth and Ideas 134Int

20、roduction 135The Economics of Ideas 136Summary 94Key Concepts 95 Review Questions Exercises 95 Worked Exercises95Ideas13697Nonrivalry 137Increasing Returns 138Problems with Pure Competition 14055.15.2The Solow Growth MIntroduction 100996.3The Romer MSolving the Romer M143146Setting Up the M Producti

21、on 101 Capital Accumulation Labor 103101Why Is There Growth in the Romer M Balanced Growth 148?147102Experiments in the Romer M149Growth Effects versus Level Effects 151Recapping Romer 152Contents | xi6.4Combining Solow and Romer: Overview 153Growth Accounting 154Concluding Our Study of Long-Run Gro

22、wth 156A Postscript on Solow and RomerExercises 197Worked Exercises 1996.56.688.18.2Inflation 202Introduction 203The Quantity Theory of Money 206 Measures of the Money Supply 206 The Quantity Equation 208The Classical Dichotomy, Constant Velocity, and the Central Bank 208The Quantity Theory for the

23、Price Level 209 The Quantity Theory for Inflation 210 Revisiting the Classical Dichotomy 212Real and Nominal Interest Rates 213Costs of Inflation 215The Fiscal Causes of High Inflation 218The Inflation Tax 218Central Bank Independence 219The Great Inflation of the 1970s 2216.76.8158Additional Resour

24、ces159Summary 159Key Concepts 160Review Questions 160Exercises 161Worked Exercises 162APPENDIX: Combining Solow and Romer (Algebraically) 1646.98.38.48.5Setting up the Combined M Solving the Combined M Long-Run Growth 166165165Output per167Transition Dynamics 168More Exercises 1708.6Summary 222Key C

25、oncepts 223Review Questions 223Exercises 223Worked Exercises 226The Labor Market, Wages, and Unemployment 172Introduction 173The U.S. Labor Market 17377.17.2The Dynamics of the Labor MarketSupply and Demand 177A Change in Labor Supply 178 A Change in Labor Demand 179 Wage Rigidity 180Different Kinds

26、 of Unemployment1757.3>/B ! THE SHORT RUNAn Introduction to the99.19.2Short Run 230Introduction 231The Long Run, the Short Run, and Shocks 232Trends and Fluctuations 232Short-Run Output in the United States 233Measuring Potential Output 237The Inflation Rate 2381827.47.5The Bathtub Mof Unemployme

27、nt182Labor Markets around the World 184Hours of Work 186How Much Is Your Human Capital Worth? 188Present Discounted Value 188Your Human Capital 1897.69.3The Short-Run M2387.7The Rising Return to Education190A Graph of the Short-Run M239Summary 195Key Concepts 196Review Questions 196How the Short-Run

28、 MWorks 241The Empirical Fit of the Phillips Curve 242Summary 242xii | Contents9.4Okuns Law: Output and Unemployment 24311.311.4Deriving the IS Curve 279 Using the IS Curve 281 The Basic IS Curve 281The Effect of a Change in theInterest Rate 282An Aggregate Demand Shock 283 A Shock to Potential Outp

29、ut 285 Other Experiments 286Microfoundations of the IS Curve 286Consumption 286Multiplier Effects 289Investment 291Government Purchases 292Net Exports 2972989.5Filling in the Details245Summary 246Key Concepts 247Review Questions 247Exercises 247Worked Exercise 25011.5The Great Recession: A First Loo

30、k 251Introduction 252Recent Shocks to the Macroeconomy 253Housing Prices 2531010.110.211.6Summary 298Key Concepts 299Review Questions 299Exercises 299Worked Exercises 302The Global Saving Glut254Subprime Lending and the Rise in Interest Rates 255The Financial Turmoil of 20072009 Oil Prices 258Macroe

31、conomic Outcomes 260 A Comparison to Previous Recessions Inflation 263The Rest of the World 265Some Fundamentals of Financial Economics 266Balance Sheets 267Leverage 26825610.3Monetary Policy and the Phillips Curve 305Introduction 306The MP Curve: Monetary Policy and Interest Rates 307From Nominal t

32、o Real Interest Rates 308The IS-MP Diagram 310Example: The End of a Housing Bubble 310The Phillips Curve 314Price Shocks and the Phillips Curve 317Cost-Push and Demand-Pull Inflation 3171212.112.226010.4Bank Runs and Liquidity Crises Financial Wrap-Up 270Going Forward 27026912.310.5Summary 271Key Co

33、ncepts 272Review Questions 272Exercises 27212.4Using the Short-Run MThe Volcker Disinflation 319The Great Inflation of the 1970s 322319The Short-Run Min a Nutshell 32412.5Microfoundations: Understanding Sticky Inflation 325The Classical Dichotomy in the Short Run 326Microfoundations: How Central Ban

34、ks Control Nominal Interest Rates 329 Changing the Interest Rate 329Why it instead of Mt? 3311111.111.2The IS CurveIntroduction 275Setting Up the Economy27412.6276Consumption and Friends 277The Investment Equation 278Contents |xiii12.7Inside the Federal ReserveConventional Monetary PolicySummary 372

35、Key Concepts 373Review Questions 373Exercises 373Worked Exercises 377332332Open-Market Operations: How the FedControls the Money Supply33433312.8Summary 334Key Concepts 335 Review Questions Exercises 336 Worked ExercisesThe Great Recession and1414.114.2the Short-Run MIntroduction 380Financial Consid

36、erations in the379335338Short-Run M381Financial Frictions 381 Financial Frictions in the IS/MP Framework 382Financial Frictions in the AS/AD Framework 384The Dangers of Deflation 386Policy Responses to the Financial Crisis 388The Taylor Rule and Monetary Policy 388The Money Supply 390The Feds Balanc

37、e Sheet 393Stabilization Policy and the AS/AD Framework 341Introduction 342Monetary Policy Rules and Aggregate Demand 343 The AD Curve 343Moving along the AD Curve 345Shifts of the AD Curve 3451313.113.214.313.313.4The Aggregate Supply Curve346The Troubled Asset Relief Program Fiscal Stimulus 395The

38、 European Debt Crisis 396Financial Reform 396400395The AS/AD Framework The Steady State 348 The AS/AD Graph 34834713.5Macroeconomic Events in the AS/AD Framework 349Event #1: An Inflation Shock 349Event #2: Disinflation 35214.4Summary 400Key Concepts 401Review Questions 401Exercises 402Worked Exerci

39、se 404Event #3: A Positive AD Shock Further Thoughts on Aggregate Demand Shocks 358Empirical Evidence 359Predicting the Fed Funds Rate Inflation-Output Loops 36035513.6359DSGE Ms: The15Frontier of Business Cycle Research 40613.7Modern Monetary Policy 363 More Sophisticated Monetary Policy Rules 365R

40、ules versus Discretion 365The Paradox of Policy and Rational Expectations 366Managing Expectations in the15.115.2Introduction 407A Brief History of DSGE Ms408409From Real Business Cycles to DSGE Endogenous Variables 410Shocks 410Features 410AS/AD M367Inflation Targeting 36937113.8Mathematics and DSG

41、E Ms 411xiv | Contents15.3A Stylized Approach to DSGE 412Labor Demand 412Labor Supply 413Ricardian Equivalence 449Borrowing Constraints449 Consumption as a Random Walk 450 Precautionary Saving 451Empirical Evidence on Consumption 452 Evidence from Individual Households 452 Aggregate Evidence 455Equi

42、librium in the Labor MarketUsing the Stylized DSGE MA Negative TFP Shock 415A Rise in Taxes Paid by Firms41415.416.4415416A Rise in Government Purchases 417 Introducing Monetary Policy and Unemployment: Sticky Wages 419Summary 457Key Concepts 458Review Questions 458Exercises 459Worked Exercise 461Mo

43、netary Policy and Sticky Prices Lessons from the Labor Market in421DSGE Ms 42215.5Quantitative DSGE Ms 422Impulse Response Functions 423A Total Factor Productivity Shock 4251717.117.2Investment 463Introduction 464How Do Firms Make Investment Decisions? 465Reasoning with an Arbitrage Equation 465The

44、User Cost of Capital 466 Example: Investment and the Corporate Income Tax468From Desired Capital to Investment 471The Stock Market and Financial Investment 473The Arbitrage Equation and the Price of a Stock 473P/E Ratios and Bubbles? 475Efficient Markets477A Shock to Government Purchases427A Financi

45、al Friction Shock42942815.6Summary 430Key Concepts 431Review Questions 431Exercises 431Worked Exercise 433APPENDIX: Deriving the Labor Supply Curve17.315.7435>/B " APPLICATIONS AND MICROFOUNDATIONS17.4Components of Physical InvestmentResidential Investment 481Inventory Investment4824801616.1

46、16.2ConsumptionIntroduction 441The Neoclassical Consumption440Summary 483Key Concepts 484Review Questions 484Exercises 485Worked Exercises 487M441The Intertemporal Budget Constraint Utility 442442Choosing Consumption to Utility 444izeThe Government and the Macroeconomy 490Introduction 491U.S. Govern

47、ment Spending and Revenue 491Spending and Revenue over Time 493Solving the Euler Equation: Log Utility 445Solving for ctoday and cfuture: Log Utility and C 1 446The Effect of a Rise in R on Consumption 447Lessons from the Neoclassical1818.118.216.3M447The Permanent-Income Hypothesis 447Contents |xvT

48、he Debt-GDP Ratio 493International Evidence on Spending and Debt 495The Government Budget ConstraintReview Questions 536Exercises 537Worked Exercise 53918.318.4496Exchange Rates and International Finance 540Introduction 541Exchange Rates in the Long Run 541The Nominal Exchange Rate 541The Law of One

49、 Price 542 The Real Exchange Rate 545 Summary 546Exchange Rates in the Short Run 548The Nominal Exchange Rate 548 The Real Exchange Rate 549 Fixed Exchange Rates 550The Open Economy in theThe Intertemporal Budget ConstraintHow Much Can the Government Borrow? 499Economic Growth and the Debt-GDP Ratio

50、 5004972020.120.218.5High Inflation and Default Generational Accounting500501Deficits and Investment 502The Fiscal Problem of the18.6Twenty-First CenturyThe Problem 50450420.3Possible Solutions50950718.720.420.5Summary 510Key Concepts 510Review Questions 510Exercises 511Worked Exercise 512Short-Run

51、M551The New IS Curve 552Event #1: Tightening Domestic Monetary Policy and the IS Curve 553Event #2: A Change in Foreign Interest Rates 554Exchange Rate Regimes 555The Policy Trilemma 5571919.119.219.319.419.520.620.7International TradeIntroduction 515Some Basic Facts about Trade A Basic Reason for T

52、rade 518 Trade across Time 519514Which Side of the Triangle to Choose? The Future of Exchange Rate Regimes The Euro Crisis 565The Immediate Crisis 568Long-Term Competitiveness 56956056351620.8Trade with ProductionAutarky 522Free Trade 524521Summary 570Key Concepts 572Review Questions 572Exercises 57

53、2Worked Exercises 574Lessons from the AppleComputer Example 525Trade in Inputs 526Moving Capital versus Moving LaborThe Costs of Trade 52819.652719.719.82121.121.221.3Parting Thoughts 576What Weve Learned 577Significant Remaining Questions 579582The Trade Deficit and Foreign Debt 530 Trade and Growt

54、h around the World 531 The Twin Deficits 532Net Foreign Assets and Foreign Debt53553319.9Glossary 583Index 599Summary 535Key Concepts 536PREFACE TO THE THIRD EDITIONTInnovations(This section will make the most sense to read- ers with some familiarity with macroeconomics, especially instructors. Students new to the subject might skip to the Guided Tour.)Most other textbooks for teaching intermedi- ate m