1、Good is good, but better carries it.精益求精，善益求善。Lex專欄：亞洲食品企業(yè)的下一步？-Lex_Noodlesandmilk:dealtime?Milkdrinksornoodles?BotharebiggerinAsia,notablyChina,thanotherpartsoftheworld.BetterearningsfromtheformerdroveWantWanthigheronWednesdaywhileTingyiandUni-PresidentChina,thenoodlekingsembroiledinapricewar,boths

2、lipped.Stepbackhoweverandallthreehavemoreincommonthantheirsnackspecialitiessuggest.Theyallenjoyhighvaluationsandfaceslowingorganicgrowth.牛奶飲料還是面條？相比世界其他地區(qū)，兩者在亞洲（尤其中國(guó)）都是更大的生意。來(lái)自前者的更高盈利周三推高旺旺集團(tuán)(WantWant)股價(jià)，而兩家開打價(jià)格戰(zhàn)的面條大王康師傅(Tingyi)和統(tǒng)一企業(yè)中國(guó)(Uni-PresidentChina)股價(jià)都有下滑。然而退一步說(shuō)，三者之間的共同點(diǎn)多于它們?cè)诹闶钞a(chǎn)品范圍上的差異。它們都享有高估

3、值，且都面臨有機(jī)增長(zhǎng)的放緩。Growthinsweetsandchocolatesaleshasdroppedbelow10percentforthefirsttimeinadecade,accordingtoStandardChartered.Growthininstantnoodleconsumptionpercapitaisheadingthesameway,havingbeennearer20percentthreeyearsago.Juicedrinksalesarerisingatlessthanhalftheratethreeyearsago.Therearevariousexp

4、lanationsincludingChinasslowingeconomicgrowthandariseinhealthconsciousnessamongits1.3bnconsumers(bottledwatersalesarestillrising16percentayear).根據(jù)渣打(StandardChartered)的數(shù)據(jù)，糖果和巧克力的銷售增長(zhǎng)10年來(lái)首次降至10%以下。人均方便面消費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)也同樣下滑，三年前的增速曾經(jīng)更接近20%。果汁飲料的銷售增長(zhǎng)速度不到三年前的一半。對(duì)此有很多不同的解釋，包括中國(guó)正在放緩的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，以及其13億消費(fèi)者健康意識(shí)的提高（瓶裝水銷售仍以每年16%

5、的速度增長(zhǎng)）。Yetallthreecompaniesaretradingonbetween26and28timesexpectedearningsapremiumtoEuropeanandAmericanrivalssuchasNestlandKraftFoodson19and17timesrespectively.NoneofthosesectorgrowthratesareadisasterfortheAsiansnackgroups.ButtheywillfacepressuretojustifyratingsmoreusuallyequatedwithHermesorMichaelK

6、orsthancompaniesbattlingoverbeefnoodles,chocolatemilkandricecrackers.盡管如此，這三家公司的股價(jià)都達(dá)到預(yù)期盈利的26倍至28倍相比歐洲和美國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手，這三家公司的股價(jià)存在溢價(jià)，例如，雀巢(Nestl)和卡夫食品(KraftFoods)的市盈率分別是19倍和17倍。這些行業(yè)增長(zhǎng)數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)亞洲的零食生產(chǎn)集團(tuán)來(lái)說(shuō)并非災(zāi)難。但他們將會(huì)面臨壓力，要求他們證明自己的市盈率為何更接近奢侈品牌愛(ài)馬仕(Hermes)和邁克爾高司(MichaelKors)，而不是生產(chǎn)牛肉面、巧克力牛奶和米果的同行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者。Onepossibleresponsewo

7、uldbetousethosehighlyratedsharestobuyinbrandsormoveintonewmarkets.Thatwouldfitwithaconsolidating,maturingindustry.WantWantandTingyialsoholdnetcashof$802mand$99mrespectively.Uni-Presidenthasnetdebt,butitisfairlymodestasaproportionofearningsandinvestorswholovethestockasmuchastheyappeartoshouldallowitsomeleeway.Donewell,smallishdealswouldbeagooduseofsuchluxuryvaluations.一種可能的回應(yīng)將是利用這些高昂的股價(jià)收購(gòu)新品牌，或進(jìn)入新市場(chǎng)。這樣做符合一個(gè)走向整合、趨于