1、In this paper, a model is established to provide a measure of the ability of a region to provide clean water to meet the needs of its population, and find out the reason for the lack of water resources. Specific tasks are as follows:For Task 1: We establish a model. In the model, we think the supply

2、 of clean water depends on the amount of surface water, underground water and sewage purification. The water requirements are decided by the amount of life water, agricultural water and industrial water in the region. In water supply, surface water is affected by the annual average temperature, annu

3、al average precipitation and forest coverage rate. The groundwater is impacted by the annual average temperature, annual average precipitation. The agricultural water is affected by the population of the region and annual average precipitation. The GDP of the region influences the industrial water c

4、onsumption. We use the principle of multivariate nonlinear regression to find out the regression coefficient. And then make sure its function. The ratio of water supply and water requirements is used as a measure of the ability of a region to provide clean water. We find that the ability of a region

5、 to provide clean water is good or not by comparing the ratio with 1.For Task 2: The model selects the Shandong Province of China as the testing region. We analyse the data of Chinas Shandong area between 2005 and 2014, and then crystallize the model through the thought of the function fitting and m

6、ultivariate nonlinear regression. By the model, we think Shandong provinces ability to provide clean water is weak. And then from two aspects which physical shortage and shortage of economic, this paper analyses the causes of water shortage in Shandong Province, and thus test the applicability of th

7、e model.For Task 3: We select several factors affecting water supply and water demand badly, which is annual precipitation, annual average temperature, the forest coverage rate and population forecast. We analyse the data of Chinas Shandong area between 2005 and 2014, according which to predict the

8、changes of those factors in 15 years. After that this paper uses the model to analyse the situation of Shandongs water in 15 years.For Task 4: According to the model in Task 1 and the analysis of the Task 2. We find the main factors influencing the ability to provide clean water in Chinas Shandong p

9、rovince. By these factors we make the intervention program. In view of the low average annual rainfall, increase the average annual rainfall by artificial rainfall. In view of the forest coverage rate, forest plantation and protect vegetation is came up with. For sewage purification capacity, puttin

10、g forward to improve sewage treatment technology and improve the sewage conversion rate and increases daily sewage quantity. In view of the total population, we put forward the policy of family planning for water consumption per capita, putting forward to set the daily water consumption per person.

11、And putting forward the industrial wastewater must reach the indexes of the rules, developing seawater desalination technology to increase the supply of clean water. Water has always been the hot spot in the world.The future is also not exceptional. Only finding out the problem, we can suit the reme

12、dy to the case.The model measure the ability of a region to provide clean water by analysing the cases which influence the supply and remand of water. Based on this, make a good intervention program. Offering helps to solve global water issues.TOC o 1-3 h u HYPERLINK l _Toc8091 1 Introduction PAGERE

13、F _Toc8091 4 HYPERLINK l _Toc30775 1.1 Problem Statement PAGEREF _Toc30775 4 HYPERLINK l _Toc22083 1.2Problem Analysis PAGEREF _Toc22083 4 HYPERLINK l _Toc23216 1.2.1Task 1 Analysis PAGEREF _Toc23216 4 HYPERLINK l _Toc12071 1.2.2Task 2 Analysis PAGEREF _Toc12071 4 HYPERLINK l _Toc5176 1.2.3Task 3 An

14、alysis PAGEREF _Toc5176 5 HYPERLINK l _Toc26260 1.2.4Task 4 Analysis PAGEREF _Toc26260 5 HYPERLINK l _Toc12290 1.2.5Task 4 and 5 Analysis PAGEREF _Toc12290 5 HYPERLINK l _Toc678 2 Assumptions and Notations PAGEREF _Toc678 5 HYPERLINK l _Toc27812 2.1 Assumptions PAGEREF _Toc27812 5 HYPERLINK l _Toc31

15、957 2.2 Notations PAGEREF _Toc31957 6 HYPERLINK l _Toc17904 3 Model Establishment and Solution PAGEREF _Toc17904 7 HYPERLINK l _Toc4357 3.1 The effect of single factor on the water supply in a certain area PAGEREF _Toc4357 7 HYPERLINK l _Toc16967 3.1.1Effects of annual average temperature, annual av

16、erage precipitation and forest coverage on surface water resources in a certain area PAGEREF _Toc16967 7 HYPERLINK l _Toc9715 3.1.2 Effects of annual average temperature and annual precipitation on groundwater resources in a certain area PAGEREF _Toc9715 7 HYPERLINK l _Toc18373 3.1.3 Influence of to

17、tal population and per capita water consumption on daily water consumption in a certain area PAGEREF _Toc18373 8 HYPERLINK l _Toc8762 3.1.4 The influence of average annual rainfall and total population on agricultural water consumption in a certain area PAGEREF _Toc8762 8 HYPERLINK l _Toc8138 3.1.5

18、Effect of average annual rainfall and population in an area of agricultural water use PAGEREF _Toc8138 9 HYPERLINK l _Toc23105 3.2 Function Arrangement PAGEREF _Toc23105 9 HYPERLINK l _Toc17305 3.2.1 Water supply function PAGEREF _Toc17305 9 HYPERLINK l _Toc26317 3.2.2 Water demand function PAGEREF

19、_Toc26317 9 HYPERLINK l _Toc9002 3.2.3 The ability of a region to provide clean water PAGEREF _Toc9002 10 HYPERLINK l _Toc28953 3.3 In order to test the accuracy and usability of the model, this model is selected as a test area in Shandong Province, China. PAGEREF _Toc28953 10 HYPERLINK l _Toc24424

20、3.3.1 Total surface water resources PAGEREF _Toc24424 10 HYPERLINK l _Toc10391 3.3.2 Total groundwater resources PAGEREF _Toc10391 13 HYPERLINK l _Toc31593 3.3.3 Total industrial water consumption function PAGEREF _Toc31593 15 HYPERLINK l _Toc30662 3.3.4 Total agricultural water consumption function

21、 PAGEREF _Toc30662 16 HYPERLINK l _Toc25703 3.3.5 Assessment of water supply capacity PAGEREF _Toc25703 18 HYPERLINK l _Toc30922 3.4.2 Remediation Measures PAGEREF _Toc30922 19 HYPERLINK l _Toc28291 3.5 Forecast for the next 15 years PAGEREF _Toc28291 19 HYPERLINK l _Toc28577 3.5.1 Forecast of avera

22、ge annual rainfall PAGEREF _Toc28577 20 HYPERLINK l _Toc5271 3.5.2 Prediction of annual temperature PAGEREF _Toc5271 21 HYPERLINK l _Toc32561 3.5.3 Prediction of forest cover PAGEREF _Toc32561 21 HYPERLINK l _Toc31651 3.5.4 Prediction of population PAGEREF _Toc31651 22 HYPERLINK l _Toc14203 3.6 Inte

23、rvention Program PAGEREF _Toc14203 23 HYPERLINK l _Toc32410 3.6.1 Present ofthe Intervention Program PAGEREF _Toc32410 23 HYPERLINK l _Toc20153 3.6.2 Implement ofthe Intervention Program PAGEREF _Toc20153 24 HYPERLINK l _Toc28055 4 Advantages and Shortcoming of the model PAGEREF _Toc28055 25 HYPERLI

24、NK l _Toc9275 4.1Advantages： PAGEREF _Toc9275 25 HYPERLINK l _Toc17350 4.2 Shortcoming PAGEREF _Toc17350 25 HYPERLINK l _Toc25393 5 Improvement of model PAGEREF _Toc25393 26 HYPERLINK l _Toc29057 6 Reference PAGEREF _Toc29057 26 HYPERLINK l _Toc3272 7 Appendices PAGEREF _Toc3272 27 HYPERLINK l _Toc1

25、144 7.1 Data used in task 2 PAGEREF _Toc1144 27 HYPERLINK l _Toc11342 7.2 Matlab Source Code PAGEREF _Toc11342 291 Introduction1.1 Problem StatementOn the earth, the water that human beings can use the water directly or indirectly, is an important part of natural resources. At present, the total amo

26、unt of the earths water is about billion cubic meters, of which the ocean water is billion cubic meters, accounting for about 96.5% of the total global water. In the remaining water, the surface water accounts for 1.78%, 1.69% of the groundwater. The fresh water that human mainly use of is about bil

27、lion cubic meters, accounting for only 2.53% in the global total water storage. Few of them is distributed in lakes, rivers, soil and underground water, and most of them are stored in the form of glaciers, permafrost and permafrost, The glacier water storage of about billion cubic meters, accounting

28、 for 69% of the worlds total water, mostly stored in the Antarctic and Greenland, the available clean water in the dwindlingwith time going by.In order to assess the ability to provide clean water of an area, we set up an assessment model.1.2Problem Analysis1.2.1Task 1 AnalysisTask 1 requires establ

29、ishing a model to measure the ability of a region to provide clean water. At the same time,we also need to provide a measure standard.This paper make the ratio of water supply and water requirements of a region as the measure standard, by which to measure the ability of a region to provide clean wat

30、er.A regions main source of water is groundwater, surface water and sewage purification.The model assumes the volume of groundwater in a region is mainly affected by average annual temperature, annual precipitation;Thevolume of surface water is mainly affected by the average annual temperature, annu

31、al precipitation, the forest coverage rate.These factors decide water supply of an area.The waterdemand of an area mainly includes living water, agriculture water and industrial water. We assume living water is affected by the population and per capita consumption decision;Agricultural waterdepends

32、an annual precipitation and population decision;Industrial water is mainly decided by a gross regional product.The above factors decide the water demand in a certain area.1.2.2Task 2 AnalysisAccording to the information provided in the map, in Asia, Chinas Shandong Province is the region meeting the

33、 requirements.Through the data collection of Shandong Province, we can find the annual temperature, annual precipitation, the forest coverage rate, groundwater, surface water, sewage treatment capacity, water, agricultural water, industrial water, population,per capita consumption and GDP data.And t

34、hen according to the model of Task 1,we analyze the ratio by using multivariate nonlinear regression to make sure that Shandong province is a water-deficient area.After proving that Shandon province is short of water through the model, we analyze the reasons for lack of water from two aspects: physi

35、cal shortage and economic shortage.1.2.3Task 3 AnalysisBecause we already have the relevant data, we can function to fit the relationship between the variables and the year.Thus it is possible to predict in Shandong Provinces data in the 15 years, then input the data into the model to achieve the pu

36、rpose of prediction.In addition, it can be combined with the actual situation and the selected areas of the corresponding policy to analysis which factors will have a great change in the 15 years.We still can analyze from two aspects of society and the environment.Social aspects includes the promoti

37、on of water conservation, population growth;Environmental aspects includes policy changes to the environment, sewage purification capacity enhancement and so on.1.2.4Task 4 AnalysisFormulating plans for intervention mainly start from the perspective of the main model. According to the content of the

38、 model, we can still divide all of factors into two types: the social and environmental factors. The intervention programs can be developed based on two types of factors that affect the supply of water, reducing as much as possible the negative impact of the factors that control factors and intensif

39、ying the development of a positive impact. In addition, because Shandong Province is beside the sea, desalination and other measures can be developed to increase clean water supply sources.1.2.5Task 4 and 5 AnalysisTask 4 intervention programs indirectly impact the water supply and demand water thro

40、ugh a direct impact on GDP model of forest cover, annual precipitation, annual temperature, water emissions, sewage treatment capacity, population growth and the region.2 Assumptions and Notations2.1 AssumptionsThe water resources in a region are derived from the purification of surface water, groun

41、dwater and sewage, and the demand of water resources comes from domestic water, industrial water and agricultural water.The surface water supply in a certain area is affected only by the average annual temperature, annual precipitation and forest coverage. The groundwater supply is affected by the a

42、nnual average temperature and annual precipitation.The regions water consumption of a certain region depends on the population and per capita water consumption; Agricultural water consumption is affected by the average annual precipitation and the numberof people. Industrial water is mainly determin

43、ed by a regional GDP.A certain region will not suddenly increase or decrease the population largely.There will not be a serious natural disasters in a region in the next period of time.2.2 NotationsSurface water volume in a region or countryUnderground water in a region or countryIndustrial water co

44、nsumption in a region or countryAgricultural water consumption in a region or countryDaily water consumption in a region or countryWater demand in a region or countryAverage annual rainfallAnnual average temperatureforest coverageforest coverageTotal populationThe amount of water in a region or coun

45、tryCoefficient of determination of the regression equationStatistic valueProbability valueregression coefficientPer capita water consumptionSewage treatment capacityA region to provide clean water capacity3 Model Establishment and SolutionThe model established here is a use of a regions water supply

46、 and water demand ratio to determine whether the water shortage in the region, the main variables involved.3.1 The effect of single factor on the water supply in a certain area3.1.1Effects of annual average temperature, annual average precipitation and forest coverage on surface water resources in a

47、 certain areaDue to the average annual temperature, annual precipitation, the forest coverage rate and surface water of linear or nonlinear relationship exists, so first in order to determine the average annual temperature, annual precipitation, the forest coverage rate and surface water, and then t

48、he nonlinear multiple regression analysis method to determine the functional relationship between the three factors and surface water.The surface water content is, Average annual precipitation, annual average temperature and forest coverage rate are , Using nonlinear regression statistical methods,

49、the use of MATLAB fitting toolbox were identified , of the highest regression power(MATLAB fitting toolbox of the highest fitting function is the 9 power, greater than the 9 power function is too complex, not much research value), According to the decision coefficient R2 of the regression equation,

50、the corresponding probability value of the statistic P, the regression coefficients, get the regression equation:3.1.2 Effects of annual average temperature and annual precipitation on groundwater resources in a certain areaThere is a linear or nonlinear relationship between the average annual tempe

51、rature, average annual rainfall and the supply of groundwater, according to the idea of 5.1.1, the relationship between the average annual amount of groundwater supply, the average annual precipitation and the supply of groundwater is calculated. And the regression coefficient is determined, and the

52、 function relationship between the average annual temperature, average annual precipitation and the supply of groundwater is based on the regression coefficient:Design of underground water for , with an average annual precipitation, annual average air temperature respectively, using nonlinear regres

53、sion statistical methods, according to the regression equation with coefficient of determination R2, F statistic corresponds to the probability value p, to determine the regression coefficients , got the regression equation: （2）3.1.3 Influence of total population and per capita water consumption on

54、daily water consumption in a certain areaThe total population of a region and the amount of water consumption per capita and the daily use of the product of the relationship between the amount of water = total amount Water usage per person consumption.Set daily water consumption is , the total popul

55、ation, per capita water consumption were , , , the function of the relationship between the:（3）3.1.4 The influence of average annual rainfall and total population on agricultural water consumption in a certain areaDue to the annual precipitation and the total population and the area of agriculture o

56、f area of a water there is a linear or nonlinear relationship, according to the thought of multivariate nonlinear regression can be calculated average annual precipitation and the total population and the area of agriculture with the function relationship between water and to determine the regressio

57、n coefficient and regression coefficient write GDP and industrial functional relationship between Gross domestic product GDP and industrial water consumption.Let industrial water consumption of , gross production set , using statistical nonlinear regression, regression equation based on the coeffici

58、ent of determination, statistical probability valuecorresponding to the amount determined regression coefficients, the regression equation:（4）3.1.5 Effect of average annual rainfall and population in an area of agricultural water useAgricultural water consumption of , design with an average annual r

59、ainfall of , , using statistical nonlinear regression, regression equation based on the coefficient of determination, statistical probability valuecorresponding to the amount determined regression coefficients, the regression equation:（5）3.2 Function Arrangement3.2.1 Water supply functionThe model t

60、akes into account a regions water supply from three aspects: surface water resources, groundwater resources and the amount of sewage treatment. The function relation between surface water resources, groundwater resources, sewage treatment and water supply is the function, that is, the amount of wate