CaseStudy1:ModellingOntario’sForestCarbonBudget

KyotoProtocol(1997)Objectives:estimatetheCinlivingbiomass,forestfloor,andsoilforthebaseyear1990;estimateCchangesinthesepoolsbetween1991and2000,andtheeffectsofclimatechangeandforestecosystemdisturbances;developamodel(CBM-TRIPLEX)thatwillpredictfutureOntario’sforestcarbonbudgettotheyear2010.

SpatialunitlevelAgeclasslevelForesttypelevelSABOCTMTSpatialScalesBO:Boreal;CT:CoolTemperate;Mt:Moderatetemperate;SA:SubarticApproach:

CBM-CFS2:CarbonBudgetModelofCanadianForestSectorCBM-CFSFirstnationalscaleforestanalysisDataDriven:ForestInventory(NFBIandCanFI)SoilDataDisturbancesFireInsectsHarvests(Kurz,Apps,Webb,McNamee;1992,KurzandApps,1999)ForestCarbonBudgets

Inputs-Outputs=

ChangesinPools

Fluxes StocksForest

EcosystemForest

EconomicSystemlandfillsbiomasssoil&

peatAtmospherefuels,cementproductsdetritusFocusonChangesinStocksorFluxes?

Withfullsystemanalysis,changesinstocksareequivalenttonetfluxto/fromatmosphereLikeabankaccount:ForestCarbon:SystemDiagramTworeleasepathways:DisturbanceandDecompositionOneuptakepathway:PhotosynthesisHowDoesCBM-CFS2workforOntario?ForestStateatTimet

CarbonstocksForestStateatTimet+1

CarbonstocksRulesofchangeChangesinstocksResult:

Cstocks,fluxforyearBiomassgrowthDisturbanceSoildecompositionHistoricCarbonBudgetsofOntario’sForests(Pengetal.2000;Liuetal.2002)Ontario’sForestAge-classStructure(1990)SABOCTMTOntario'sForestAge(1920-1990)TrendofCSequestrationinOntario'sForestsPotentialCsequestrationcapability:Increaseof1.1Pg(1,100MtC)byincreasinganaveragedageof10yearsinabout20yearsSolutionsCriteria:harvestedarea<0.8%,fire&insectdisturbedarea<1%(1PgC=1,000MtC=1015gC)Lecture10-11CarbonPolicyDevelopmentandKyotoProtocolI.TheClimateChangeConventionII.TheKyotoProtocolIII.CarbonTradingandMarketGenevaDeclarationBindingTargetswithMaximumFlexibilityKyotoProtocolDifferentiatedTargets,Trading&CDMBuenosAiresPlanScheduleforGuidelinesTheHague&BonnPoliticalAgreementRioTreaty1990by2000BerlinMandateInadequateCommitmentsStrongerScientificEvidence,IncreasesInPublicConcernMarrakechAccordsTradingRules,CDMBoard,RulesforSinks&ComplianceCOP11inMontreal:199219951996199719982000-120012005InternationalClimateProcessCOP1COP2COP3COP4COP6COP7COP11UNFCCCCOP:ConferenceofthePartiesBeyondKyoto

1.WhatistheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)?Signedin1992atthe“EarthSummer”inRiodeJaneiro(Brazil),theUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCCortheConvention)wasthefirstmajorinitiativeforinternationalcooperationintheareaofgreenhousegasmitigationandmanagement..TheUNFCCCenteredintoforcedinMarch1995.Todate,186countrieshaveratifiedtheconvention.I.TheClimateChangeConvention(2005,Montreal)

TheultimateobjectiveoftheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)(inArticle2UnitedNations,1992)is“toachievestabilisationofgreenhousegasconcentrationsintheatmosphereatalevelthatwouldpreventdangerousanthropogenicinterferencewiththeclimatesystem.Suchalevelshouldbeachievedwithinatime-framesufficienttoallowecosystemstoadaptnaturallytoclimatechange,toensurethatfoodproductionisnotthreatenedandtoenableeconomicdevelopmenttoproceedinasustainablemanner””2.Objective

3.Principles“equity”and““commonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilities”Theindustrializedcountrieshavehistoricallycontributedthemosttotheproblemandhavemoreresourcestoaddressit.“Precautionaryprinciple”Althoughmanyuncertaintiesstillsurroundclimatechange,waitingforfullscientificcertaintybeforetakingactionwillalmostcertainlytobetoolatetoavertitsworstimpacts.

4.GroupofcountriesTheconventiondividescountriesintotwomaingroup:AnnexI:atotalof41industrializedcountries,includingtherelativelywealthyindustrializedcountriesthatweremembersofOECD(OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment)in1992,pluscountrieswitheconomicsintransitions(theEITs),includingtheRussianFederation,theBalticStates,andseveralCentralandEasternEuropeanStatesTheOEDCmembersofAnnexI–nottheEITs–arealsolistedintheconvention’sannexII.Therearecurrently24suchAnnexIIpartiesNon-AnnexICountries(145):AllotherscountriesnotlistedintheConvention’sAnnexes––mostlythedevelopingcountries–areknownasnon-AnnexIcountries.5.Commitments?AllPartiesmustprepareandregularlyupdatenationalclimatechangemitigationandadaptationprogrammes,includingmeasurestoaddresssourcesofgreenhousegasemissionsandtoprotectandenhancecarbon“sinks”and““reservoirs”?Theymustalsotakeclimatechangeconsiderationsintoaccountintheirotherrelevantsocial,economic,andenvironmentalpolicies,andusesuchmethodsasimpactsassessmentstominimizeanyadverseeconomics,healthorenvironmentalconsequencesofclimatechangemeasures.?AllPartiesmustalsopromotethedevelopment,applicationandtransferofclimate-friendlytechnologiesandpractices,aswellasthesustainablemanagementofcarbonsinks(1)GeneralCommitments:

(2)DifferentiatedCommitments?TheAnnexIPartiesarerequiredtoprovidefinancialresourcestoenabledevelopingcountriestomeettheirobligationsundertheConvention,andhelpthemadapttotheadverseeffectsofclimatechange?TheAnnexIPartiesmust““takeallpracticablesteps””topromotethedevelopmentandtransferofenvironmentally-friendlytechnologiestobothEITsanddevelopingcountries?TheConventiongrantsEITs“acertainofflexibility”inimplementingtheircommitments(e.g.,selectabaselinefortheirspecificcommitmentotherthan1990)?Non-AnnexIareexemptfromtheimmediateemissionreductionmeasures,butmayparticipatedonavoluntarybasis.6.TheInstitutionsConferenceoftheParties(COP):TheCOPisthesupremedecision-makingbodyoftheConvention.ItmeetseveryyeartoreviewtheimplementationoftheConvention,adoptdecisionstofurtherdeveloptheConvention’srulebook,andnegotiatesubstantivenewcommitments.(2)TheConvention’sTwoSubsidiaryBodies:SubsidiaryBodyforScientificandTechnologicalAdvice(SBSTA)––forprovidingadvicetotheCOPonscientific,technologicalandmethodologicalissuesSubsidiaryBodyforImplementation(SBI)––forhelpingwiththeassessmentandreviewoftheConvention’’simplementationII.TheKyotoProtocol《京都議定書》WhatistheKyotoProtocol?TheKyotoProtocolisanaddendumtotheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCCortheConvention)thatwasadoptedinDecember1997.TheKyotoProtocolrepresentsapotentiallybindinginternationaltreatythatstipulatesactionstobetakenbynationstocombatglobalclimatechange.ThemostimportantaspectoftheKyotoProtocolisitslegallybindingcommitmentsfor39developedcountries(AnnexB)toreducetheirGHGemissionbyaverageof5.2%relativeto1990levelsduringthefirstcommitmentperiod(2008-2012).《京都議定書》是一部限限制世界界各國二二氧化碳碳排放量量的國際法案，1997年12月由149個國家和地區(qū)的的代表在在日本京京都通過，并于2005年2月16日正式生生效。《《京都議定書》規(guī)定，所有有發(fā)達(dá)國家在2008年到2012年間必須將溫室氣氣體的排排放量比比1990年削減5.2%。同時規(guī)定，包括括中國和和印度在內(nèi)內(nèi)的發(fā)展中國家家沒有減減少排放放量的義務(wù)，可自愿愿制定削削減排放放量目標(biāo)。目前，，已有141個國家和區(qū)區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)組織織批準(zhǔn)了議定書。2.CommitmentsCountriesincludedinAnnexBtotheKyotoProtocolandtheiremissiontargetsCountryTarget(1990*-2008/2012)EU-15,Bulgaria,CzechRepublic,Estonia,Latvia,Liechtenstein,Lithuania,Monaco-8%Romania,Slovakia,Slovenia,SwitzerlandUSA**-7%Canada,Hungary,Japan,Poland-6%Croatia-5%NewZealand,RussianFederation,Ukraine0Norway+1%Australia+8%Iceland+10%*Someeconomicsintransitions(EIT)haveabaselineotherthan1990**TheUSAhasindicateditsintentionnottoratifytheKP?KyotoProtocol(1997)TheKyotoProtocol’’semissiontargetscoverthe6mainGHG:?Carbondioxide(CO2)?Methane(CH4)?Nitrousoxide(N2O)?Hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs)?Perfluorocarbons(PFCs)?Sulphurhexafluoride(SF6)Firstcommitmentperiod:2008–2012Encourageearlyaction:“demonstrableprogress”by2005“providingevidenceofprogressby1Jan.20063.PoliciesandMeasurement?ToachievetheProtocol’stargets,AnnexIPartieswillneedtoimplementclimatechangepoliciesandmeasuresathome.?TheProtocol’’sgivesalistofpoliciesandmeasuresthatmighthelpmitigateclimatechangeandpromotesustainabledevelopment,including:Enhanceenergyefficiency;ProtectingandenhancingGHGsinks;Promotingsustainableagriculture;Promotingrenewableenergy,carbonsequestrationandotherenvironmentallyfriendlytechnologies;Removingsubsidiesandothermarketimperfectionsforenvironmentally-damagingactivities;Encouragingreformsinrelevantsectorstopromoteemissionreductions;Tackingtransportsectoremission;andControllingmethaneemissionthroughrecoveryanduseinwastemanagement.1997KyotoProtocolcallsfora6%reductioninGHGemissionsfrom1990levels.Whatpoliciestoachievethereduction?-directcontrols-taxes/subsidies-emissionmarkets4.TheKyotoProtocolMechanismsTheProtocolallowsdevelopedcountriestoreachtheirtargetsindifferentwaysthrough“FlexibilityMechanism”.Theseinclude:?JointImplementation(JI)?CleanDevelopmentMechanism(CDM)?EmissionTrading(ET)Theseaimtomaximizethecost-effectivenessofclimatechangemitigationbyallowingPartiestopursueopportunitiestocutemissions,orenhancecarbonsinks,morecheaplyabroadthanathome.

JointImplementation(JI)TheJIallowsAnnexIPartiestoimplementprojectsthatreduceemissions,orincreaseremovalbysinks,intheterritoriesofotherAnnexIParties.JIalsoallowsforacquisitionandtransferof“emissionreductionunits”(ERUs)ERUs–generatedbyJIprojectsasdefinedbytheKyotoProtocolcanbeusedbyinvestingAnnexIPartiestohelpmeettheiremissionstargetsTwoproceduresforcarryingoutajointimplementationproject:Thefirstprocedure(trackone):applieswhenthehostPartyfullymeetsalltheeligibilityrequirementsrelatedtotheProtocol’smethodologicalandreportingobligation.Thesecondprocedure(tracktwo):appliesifthethehostPartydoesnotmeetAlleligibilityrequirements.ERUmustbeverifiedunderaproceduresupervisedbythe10-membersArticle6supervisorycommittee.(2)CleanDevelopmentMechanism(CDM)TheCDM(establishedbyArticle12oftheKP)allowsAnnexIPartiestoimplementprojectsthatreduceemissionsintheterritoriesofnon-AnnexIParties.TheCDMhastwokeygoals:?ToassistdevelopingcountrieswhohostCDMprojectstoachievesustainabledevelopment;?ToprovidedevelopedcountrieswithflexibilityforachievingtheiremissionReductiontargets,byallowingthemtotakecreditsfromemissionreducingProjectsundertakenindevelopingcountries.TheBenefitsofCDM:TheGHGbenefitsofeachCDMprojectwillbemeasuredaccordingtointernationallyagreedmethodsandwillbequantifiedinstandardsunits-CalledCERs(CertifiedEmissionReductions).TheCERsareexpressedintonsofCO2emissionavoidedTherulebookforCDMsetforthintheMarrakeshAccords(COP7)focusonProjectthatreduceemissions.Rulearebeingdeveloped,however,foradoptionatCOP9,forincludingafforestationandreforestationactivitiesintheCDMforthefirstcommitmentperiod.COP7(2001)5.TheLandUse,Land-UseChangeandForestr(LULUCF)–(calledKyotoLands)?TheArticle3.3oftheKPestablishesthatemissionandremoFromthefollowingactivitiesintheLULUCFsectorshallbeAccountedforhelpmeetemissionstargets:-Reforestation;AfforestationandDeforestation?TheMarrakeshAccorddesignatefoactivitiesintheLULUCFsector,including:ForestmanagementCroplandmanagementGrazinglandmanagement;andRe-vegetation“Afforestation”–istheoflandthathasnotbeenforestedforaperiodofatleast50yearstoforestedlandtroughplanting,seeding,and/orthehuman-inducedpromotionofnaturalseedsources.“