在報(bào)《可轉(zhuǎn)債首日定深度解析及投資機(jī)會(huì)轉(zhuǎn)債研究系（三中我發(fā)自220年3以上日較估轉(zhuǎn)比較高轉(zhuǎn)債，后通會(huì)更的表，文們針這一象進(jìn)步討。1.1、低估轉(zhuǎn)債案例圖1正川轉(zhuǎn)債上市際價(jià)格vs理論價(jià)（單元）

圖2惠城轉(zhuǎn)債上市后際價(jià)格vs理論價(jià)（單元） wid， wid，如上我觀兩轉(zhuǎn)在上日后00交日實(shí)價(jià)和論格變化其理定由評(píng)級(jí)債為考本風(fēng)向定（體可轉(zhuǎn)債首定：度析投資轉(zhuǎn)研系（三）到。在上日估轉(zhuǎn)此有可出實(shí)價(jià)向論價(jià)收的（圖也有可能市日后實(shí)價(jià)格和理價(jià)格持此的差距（圖2我們步判部低轉(zhuǎn)有際價(jià)向論格斂趨勢(shì)低轉(zhuǎn)相于他轉(zhuǎn)債此有好現(xiàn)原因。因此們接的究關(guān)注個(gè)題：轉(zhuǎn)債市之估會(huì)何變，估債過(guò)段時(shí)后高嗎？低估債市之收多少自估提？低估債估修需多久修的度多。圖3：2021年以來(lái)轉(zhuǎn)市后當(dāng)天收盤時(shí)實(shí)價(jià)格理論價(jià)格vs60交易日際價(jià)格-理論價(jià)格（單位：）wi，我們用轉(zhuǎn)實(shí)格-模價(jià)格來(lái)刻轉(zhuǎn)債估值平，我們?cè)靾D的點(diǎn)圖，每個(gè)點(diǎn)都應(yīng)一轉(zhuǎn)債，橫是上日時(shí)實(shí)際價(jià)格風(fēng)向標(biāo)型價(jià)縱是60個(gè)易以實(shí)際模價(jià)散點(diǎn)反了債估水平在前0交日變化圖藍(lán)的是yx，色線是的趨勢(shì)。這個(gè)點(diǎn)告我于大分債的轉(zhuǎn)可會(huì)持低估的轉(zhuǎn)維低不我們以點(diǎn)趨勢(shì)斜是于1這就表示分債現(xiàn)實(shí)價(jià)格理價(jià)靠的化散圖上估債實(shí)際格理價(jià)收的趨會(huì)明。、低估轉(zhuǎn)債在上市日后收益多少有來(lái)自于估值提升？圖4：上市后當(dāng)天收盤高低估vs60交易日理價(jià)格變化（單位：）wid，轉(zhuǎn)債格變化=轉(zhuǎn)論價(jià)變化+轉(zhuǎn)估化首先們注上后60個(gè)交日債論格化是會(huì)到市的低估影轉(zhuǎn)在市后論價(jià)的化市的體估水和債應(yīng)股價(jià)決中債格變影最。如上我發(fā)，市當(dāng)天高低和債市理價(jià)變相關(guān)性不大。圖5上市后當(dāng)天收盤高低估vs60交易日實(shí)價(jià)-理論價(jià)格變（風(fēng)同評(píng)級(jí)（單位：元）wid，而轉(zhuǎn)估變和市的高估關(guān)則高這些市低的債在估值上提比明得實(shí)價(jià)向論格近們以認(rèn)低債上市日后益多來(lái)估值提升。、低估轉(zhuǎn)債的估值修復(fù)需要多久？圖6：上市后n個(gè)交易實(shí)際價(jià)格-理論價(jià)格變2020年以來(lái)上市（單元）35 3 25 2 15 1 05 003691215182124273033363942454851545760636669727578均值 中位數(shù)wid，我們定義低估轉(zhuǎn)債：日實(shí)價(jià)-論格<2我們了220年來(lái)有的估債后n交易實(shí)價(jià)-論平均數(shù)中數(shù)變情用觀低估債值修路我發(fā)最初的0交日這數(shù)會(huì)經(jīng)一迅上的程到3-0交日，實(shí)際價(jià)格理論價(jià)的提達(dá)到最大，此變動(dòng)明顯，也是說(shuō)史數(shù)告訴我到后40個(gè)日時(shí)估債完了值修的程。、對(duì)于一個(gè)低估10元的轉(zhuǎn)債，歷史來(lái)看預(yù)期收益如何？圖7：上市后當(dāng)天收盤高低估vs40交易日實(shí)價(jià)格變化（單位：）wid，如上軸是市實(shí)際風(fēng)標(biāo)型縱是40個(gè)易以的轉(zhuǎn)債際化況我們趨線斜來(lái)畫預(yù)收。2021以，一勢(shì)的斜為-.3，就一個(gè)估10的債我們可預(yù)它未得3.5的益。2、市場(chǎng)數(shù)據(jù)表1：近日轉(zhuǎn)債日成交額以及成交量數(shù)據(jù)日期成交金額(億元)債券余額(億元)成交量(億)2022/4/18917.937749.08545.692022/4/191226.077745.91704.152022/4/201401.477774.90817.962022/4/211275.987776.39760.972022/4/221072.637782.06728.482022/4/25999.387762.22647.852022/4/261222.37779.80774.892022/4/2713257785.12812.972022/4/281317.777784.83756.372022/4/291445.847783.96865.61wid，圖8：近日轉(zhuǎn)債日成交額wid，表2：近日轉(zhuǎn)債市場(chǎng)價(jià)數(shù)量分布日期9090-100100-110110-120120-130130-140140-150>1502022/4/18067415979228482022/4/19067314782297522022/4/20067215881218512022/4/21068016867226492022/4/220681170722010412022/4/250814514944165342022/4/260916513140175352022/4/270815112356188392022/4/2808157116571810372022/4/290611413971211042wid，圖9：近日轉(zhuǎn)債市場(chǎng)價(jià)分布wid，表3：風(fēng)向標(biāo)轉(zhuǎn)債估值（單位：元）日期AAAAA+AAAA-A+2022/4/22117.35119.26120.12121.04121.172022/4/25116.25117.91118.98119.36119.432022/4/26116.60118.53119.57119.93120.002022/4/27117.55119.96120.71121.52121.552022/4/28117.89120.22121.04121.54121.662022/4/29119.03121.45122.40122.93123.09wid，圖10：風(fēng)向標(biāo)轉(zhuǎn)債估值化圖（單位：元）wid，本周向估指為3.0相于上漲1.8債場(chǎng)估在現(xiàn)了大度上。3、轉(zhuǎn)債組合跟蹤偏債型組合消費(fèi)板塊組合低價(jià)轉(zhuǎn)債組合雙低組合風(fēng)向標(biāo)低估+動(dòng)量組合風(fēng)向標(biāo)組合大金融板塊組合新能源鏈組合平衡型組合大科技板塊組合周期板塊組合機(jī)構(gòu)定價(jià)權(quán)組合穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)組合低溢價(jià)組合偏股型組合年初至今年收益率季收益率月收益率周收益率中證轉(zhuǎn)債年初至今年收益率季收益率月收益率周收益率wid，圖11：低溢價(jià)率組（位：元） 圖12：雙低組合（單位元）wid， wid，圖13：風(fēng)向標(biāo)組（單：元） 圖14：風(fēng)向標(biāo)+動(dòng)量組（單位：元）wid， wid，圖15：偏股型組（單：元） 圖16：平衡型組合（單：元）wid， wid，圖17：偏債型組（單：元） 圖18：低價(jià)組合（單位元）wid， wid，圖19：大科技轉(zhuǎn)債組單位：元） 圖20：周期轉(zhuǎn)債組合（位：元）wid， wid，圖21：大金融轉(zhuǎn)債組單位：元） 圖22：消費(fèi)轉(zhuǎn)債組合（位：元）wid， wid，中證債周跌為04股組有好現(xiàn)周現(xiàn)前策偏股組（.71溢價(jià)1.4,長(zhǎng)組（.92跌策略偏型1.0,消板組-101,低轉(zhuǎn)組-0.64、新發(fā)轉(zhuǎn)債表5：新發(fā)轉(zhuǎn)債情況跟蹤代碼名稱類型發(fā)行規(guī)模(億元)方案進(jìn)展進(jìn)展公告日300692中環(huán)保可轉(zhuǎn)債8.642022-5-62022-5-06603477巨星牧可轉(zhuǎn)債10.02022-4-52022-4-25600496精工構(gòu)可轉(zhuǎn)債20.02022-4-22022-4-22603609禾豐份可轉(zhuǎn)債15.02022-4-22022-4-22000589貴州胎可轉(zhuǎn)債18.02022-4-22022-4-22002398壘知團(tuán)可轉(zhuǎn)債3.962022-4-12022-4-21000723可轉(zhuǎn)債35.92022-4-02022-4-20300725藥石技可轉(zhuǎn)債11.52022-4-02022-4-20002982湘佳份可轉(zhuǎn)債6.42022-4-92022-4-19603638艾迪密可轉(zhuǎn)債10.02022-4-52022-4-15603058永吉份可轉(zhuǎn)債1.462022-4-42022-4-14002753永東份可轉(zhuǎn)債3.82022-4-82022-4-08601881中國(guó)河可轉(zhuǎn)債78.02022-3-42022-3-24002234民和份可轉(zhuǎn)債5.4證監(jiān)核/意冊(cè)2021-9-14002430杭氧份可轉(zhuǎn)債11.37證監(jiān)核/意冊(cè)2022-3-04688026潔特物可轉(zhuǎn)債4.4證監(jiān)核/意冊(cè)2022-3-11688219會(huì)通份可轉(zhuǎn)債8.5證監(jiān)核/意冊(cè)2022-3-17688096京源?？赊D(zhuǎn)債3.5證監(jiān)核/意冊(cè)2022-3-17688595芯海技可轉(zhuǎn)債4.2證監(jiān)核/意冊(cè)2022-3-17000703恒逸化可轉(zhuǎn)債30.0證監(jiān)核/意冊(cè)2022-3-26601865福萊特可轉(zhuǎn)債40.0證監(jiān)核/意冊(cè)2022-4-07601878浙商券可轉(zhuǎn)債70.0證監(jiān)核/意冊(cè)2022-4-13300933中辰份可轉(zhuǎn)債5.7證監(jiān)核/意冊(cè)2022-4-19600075新疆業(yè)可轉(zhuǎn)債30.0證監(jiān)核/意冊(cè)2022-4-21605189富春織可轉(zhuǎn)債5.7證監(jiān)核/意冊(cè)2022-4-23603901永創(chuàng)能可轉(zhuǎn)債6.11證監(jiān)核/意冊(cè)2022-4-26wi，5、條款跟蹤、贖回條款表6：強(qiáng)贖條框觸發(fā)情跟蹤轉(zhuǎn)債代碼轉(zhuǎn)債簡(jiǎn)稱贖回條款贖回起始日觸發(fā)進(jìn)度進(jìn)度條11354.SH石英債15/301302020/5/0630/30100.0012804.SZ利爾債20/301302019/4/2320/23100.0011360.SH新星債15/301302021/2/1915/21100.0012805.SZ尚榮債15/301302019/8/2115/18100.0012306.SZ斯萊債15/301302021/3/2315/15100.0012307.SZ鵬輝債20/301302021/4/2620/20100.0012307.SZ天能債15/301302021/4/2715/19100.0012307.SZ同和債20/301302021/5/0620/20100.0011358.SH壽仙債15/301302020/2/1515/27100.0011358.SH火炬?zhèn)?5/301302020/2/0230/30100.0012807.SZ游族債15/301302020/3/2715/15100.0012807.SZ遠(yuǎn)東債15/301302020/3/2715/26100.0011357.SH春秋債15/301302020/0/2015/30100.0011357.SH起步債15/301302020/0/1624/30100.0011357.SH東時(shí)債15/301302020/0/1530/30100.0012307.SZ飛凱債15/301202021/6/0315/24100.0012807.SZ太極債15/301302020/4/2715/25100.0012807.SZ英聯(lián)債15/301302020/4/2715/30100.0011356.SH新春債15/301302020/9/1415/22100.0011356.SH君禾債15/301302020/9/1015/20100.0012808.SZ華鋒債15/301302020/6/1015/15100.0012703.SZ盛虹債15/301302021/9/2730/30100.0012808.SZ鴻達(dá)債15/301302020/6/2215/15100.0012308.SZ朗新債15/301302021/6/1515/23100.0012308.SZ高瀾債15/301302021/6/1615/15100.0012303.SZ利德債15/301302020/5/2015/15100.0012809.SZ新天債15/301302020/7/0615/15100.0011354.SH金能債15/301302020/4/2015/15100.0012809.SZ恩捷債15/301302020/8/1715/20100.0011354.SH榮晟債15/301302020/2/0315/21100.0011353.SH文燦債15/301302019/2/1615/19100.0012703.SZ國(guó)微債15/301302021/2/1730/30100.0012804.SZ盛路債15/301302019/1/2315/30100.0011353.SH鼎勝債15/301302019/0/1615/17100.0012804.SZ華通債15/301302018/2/2115/15100.0012303.SZ晶瑞債15/301302020/3/0530/30100.0012302.SZ英科債15/301302020/2/2430/30100.0012302.SZ藍(lán)曉債15/301302019/2/1715/26100.0012302.SZ精測(cè)債15/301302019/0/0815/20100.0012303.SZ聯(lián)得債15/301302020/7/0115/22100.0012302.SZ長(zhǎng)信債15/301302019/9/2330/30100.0012301.SZ溢利債15/301302019/6/2615/15100.0012304.SZ紅相債15/301302020/9/1828/30100.0012301.SZ萬(wàn)順債15/301302019/1/2815/20100.0012304.SZ天鐵債15/301302020/9/2530/30100.0012801.SZ金禾債15/301302018/8/0715/15100.0012802.SZ兄弟債20/301302018/6/0420/25100.0012300.SZ國(guó)禎債15/301302018/5/3015/30100.0012304.SZ應(yīng)急債15/301302020/0/1616/30100.0011800.SH嘉元債15/301302021/9/0130/30100.0012305.SZ聚飛債15/301302020/0/2015/15100.0012305.SZ飛鹿債15/301302020/2/1115/15100.0012802.SZ太陽(yáng)債15/301302018/6/2815/15100.0011362.SH伯特債15/301302022/1/0530/30100.0012803.SZ天康債15/301302018/6/2827/30100.0012305.SZ思特債15/301302020/2/1615/15100.0012305.SZ美聯(lián)債15/301302021/1/0715/17100.0011362.SH彤程債15/301302021/8/0230/30100.0011362.SH傲農(nóng)債15/301302021/9/1615/30100.0012803.SZ金農(nóng)債15/301302018/9/1715/15100.0011361.SH美諾債15/301302021/7/2015/15100.0011361.SH韋爾債15/301302021/7/0526/30100.0011361.SH金誠(chéng)債15/301302021/6/2930/30100.0012306.SZ蘇試債15/301302021/1/2715/18100.0012809.SZ奧佳債15/301302020/9/0230/30100.0012303.SZ通光債15/301302020/5/0826/30100.0012308.SZ萬(wàn)轉(zhuǎn)215/301302021/6/1715/23100.0012701.SZ希望債15/301302020/7/0930/30100.0011005.SH伊力債15/301302019/9/2315/15100.0013201.SH18化EB15/301302019/4/2515/21100.0012700.SZ模塑債20/301302017/2/0820/20100.0012814.SZ日豐債15/301302021/9/2715/28100.0011006.SH天路債15/301302020/5/0615/15100.0011006.SH川投債15/301302020/5/1515/15100.0011302.SH華鈺債15/301302019/2/2015/23100.0011302.SH明泰債15/301302019/0/1615/24100.0012309.SZ一品債15/301302021/8/0329/30100.0012700.SZ湖廣債15/301302019/1/0415/22100.0012311.SZ三角債20/301302021/1/3029/30100.0012814.SZ潤(rùn)建債15/301302021/6/1515/15100.0012311.SZ萬(wàn)訊債15/301302021/0/1415/20100.0011301.SH小康債15/301302018/5/1115/19100.0012812.SZ齊轉(zhuǎn)215/301302021/2/2615/18100.0012810.SZ聯(lián)創(chuàng)債15/301302020/9/2115/18100.0012813.SZ潔美債15/301302021/5/1015/18100.0012310.SZ震安債15/301302021/9/2230/30100.0011007.SH精達(dá)債15/301302021/2/2515/17100.0013201.SHG峽B115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