?2023InternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopment|IISD.orgJanuary2023Ceres2030DeepDivesintosofFoodSystemsClimateChange,andDietsAchievingSustainableFoodSystemsinaobalCrisisIISD.orgiiAchievingSustainableFoodSystemsinaGlobalCrisis:SummaryReport?2023InternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentPublishedbytheInternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentThispublicationislicensedunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike4.0InternationalLicense.InternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopmentTheInternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopment(IISD)isanaward-winningindependentthinktankworkingtoacceleratesolutionsforastableclimate,sustainableresourcemanagement,andfaireconomies.Ourworkinspiresbetterdecisionsandsparksmeaningfulactiontohelppeopleandtheplanetthrive.Weshinealightonwhatcanbeachievedwhengovernments,businesses,non-profits,andcommunitiescometogether.IISD’sstaffofmorethan120people,plusover150associatesandconsultants,comefromacrosstheglobeandfrommanydisciplines.WithofficesinWinnipeg,Geneva,Ottawa,andToronto,ourworkaffectslivesinnearly100countries.IISDisaregisteredcharitableorganizationinCanadaandhas501(c)(3)statusintheUnitedStates.IISDreceivescoreoperatingsupportfromtheProvinceofManitobaandprojectfundingfromgovernmentsinsideandoutsideCanada,UnitedNationsagencies,foundations,theprivatesector,andindividuals.sSummaryReportJanuary2023Photo:iStockWrittenbyLiviaBizikova,AlanDeBrauw,MaliEberRose,DavidLaborde,KulthoumMotsumi,MikeMurphy,MarieParent,FrancinePicard,andCarinSmallerHeadOffice111LombardAvenue,Suite325Winnipeg,ManitobaCanadaR3B0T4Tel:+1(204)958-7700Website:Twitter:@IISD_newsIISD.orgiiiAchievingSustainableFoodSystemsinaGlobalCrisis:SummaryReportAcknowledgementsAchievingSustainableFoodSystemsinaGlobalCrisis:SummaryReportistheresultofacollaborationbetweentheInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI),theInternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopment(IISD),theFederalMinistryforEconomicDevelopment,andCooperationofGermany(BMZ),DeutscheGesellschaftfu?rInternationaleZusammenarbeit(GIZ),theEuropeanUnion,theOfficeofthePrimeMinisterofNigeria,theMalawiMinistryofPublicHealth,andtheEthiopianMinistryofHealth.ThisreportwaswrittenbyLiviaBizikova,AlanDeBrauw,MaliEberRose,DavidLaborde,KulthoumMotsumi,MikeMurphy,MarieParent,FrancinePicard,andCarinSmaller.Theauthorswanttoexpresstheirappreciationandgratitudetothethreecountrycounterparts:AndrewKwasari,SeniorSpecialAssistanttothePresidentonAgriculture,OfficeoftheVicePresidentofNigeria,thelateFerewLemma,MinistryofHealth,andPensuloPhiriFelix,DirectorofNutrition,HIVandAIDSattheMinistryofHealthfortheirdedication,contributions,andsupport.TheauthorswouldalsoliketosincerelythanktheteamatGIZwhoprovidedongoingsupport,invaluablefeedbackandcomments,andstrongguidancethroughouttheproject:OusmaneDjibo(GIZ),ChristophLangenkamp(GIZ),RikeRiesmeier(GIZ),JuliaGoette(GIZ),BoranAltincicek(GIZ),andDeirdreMcMahon(GIZ).Oursinceregratitudegoestotheexpertsandorganizationswhocontributedtime,energy,andknowledgetothisprojectthroughsurveysandquestionnairesandfortheiractiveparticipationinaseriesofonlineconsultations.SpecialthankstoSureshBaduandHyacinthEdehfromIFPRIfortheirsupportthroughouttheproject.TheprojectisfundedbytheGermanFederalMinistryforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(BMZ)andtheEuropeanCommissionthroughtheGIZ-implementedprojectsKnowledgeforNutritionandAgriculturalPolicyandFoodandNutritionSecurity.IISD.orgivAchievingSustainableFoodSystemsinaGlobalCrisis:SummaryReportExecutiveSummaryTheworldisnotontracktoachievetheUnitedNationsSustainableDevelopmentGoalsby2030.Theprevalenceofhungerandpoverty—thetwocoregoalswhicharethelitmustestforeverythingelse—areontherise.ThisisbeingmadeworsebytheRussianinvasionofUkraine,skyrocketingfood,fertilizer,andenergyprices,COVID-19,andclimatechange.InAfrica,thesituationisexacerbatedbyinternalconflicts,politicalunrest,economicrecessions,andswarmsofdesertlocusts.Togetbackontrack,itiscriticaltopursuepolicypathwaysthatencouragesynergiesandlimitthetrade-offsbetweenhunger,poverty,nutrition,andclimatechange.Thisreportsummarizestheevidence-basedandcostedcountryroadmapsforeffectivepublicinterventionstotransformagricultureandfoodsystemsinEthiopia,Malawi,andNigeria1inawaythatendshunger,makesdietshealthierandmoreaffordable,improvestheproductivityandincomesofsmall-scaleproducersandtheirhouseholds,andmitigatesandadaptstoclimatechange.Thefinancinggapisimmense.ThisreportshowsthatwhileitispossibletoachievesustainablefoodsystemtransformationinEthiopia,Malawi,andNigeria,inthenextdecade,itwouldrequireanaverageadditionalpublicinvestmentofUSD10billionperyearfrom2023to2030andtargetingspendingonamoreeffectiveportfolioofinterventionsthatachievemultiplesustainabledevelopmentoutcomes.OfthetotalUSD10billion,thedonorshareaveragesUSD5.8billionperyear,andthecountryshareaveragesUSD4.2billionperyear.Importantly,comparingthefinancinggapbetweenthelong-terminvestmentneededtoachieveSustainableDevelopmentGoal2andtheshort-terminvestmentneededforemergencyfoodassistanceshowsthatwhileemergencyassistancehasincreasedinrecentyears,thereissignificantunderfundingofthelonger-terminvestmentneeds.Theshortfallinlonger-termfundingincreasesthevulnerabilitytoshocks,pushingthenumberofpeopleaffectedbyhungerandpovertyhigher.Donorsshouldthereforecomplementandbetterlinktheincreasedallocationofemergencyfoodassistancewithincreasedinvestmentsinlonger-termagriculturaldevelopmentprioritiestopreventfuturecriseswhenthenextshockhits.FillingthefinancinggapofUSD10billionperyearwillyieldimmenseeconomic,social,andenvironmentalbenefits.Theprevalenceofundernourishmentinallthreecountrieswilldecreasetounder3%in2030fromacurrentprojectionof22%inEthiopia,25%inMalawi,and21%inNigeria,by2030.Thetransitiontowardhealthierdietswillbeachievedfor248millionpeople,orroughly60%ofthepopulationineachcountry.Theincomesof29millionsmall-scaleproducerswilldoubleonaveragein2030comparedto2015levels.Theseeconomicandsocialgainswillbeachievedwhileconfininggreenhousegas(GHG)emissionstonationallydeterminedcontributiongoalsandincreasingresiliencetoclimatechangeofthemostvulnerable.Thefindingsinthisreportarebasedonanalysisofacademicandgreyliterature,aswellasdonor-fundedprojects,micro-andmacroeconomicmodelling,andengagementandconsultationswithkeystakeholdersinEthiopia,Malawi,andNigeria.Thereportsummarizesthefindingsofaprojectthatexplorestheinteractionsbetweenreducinghungerandpoverty,1FormoredetailedcountrylevelreportsonEthiopia,Malawi,andNigeria,seeBizikovaetal.,2022a,2022b,2022c.IISD.orgvAchievingSustainableFoodSystemsinaGlobalCrisis:SummaryReportachievinghealthydiets,andaddressingclimatechangewithintheevolvingfoodsystemsinthreecountries—Ethiopia,Malawi,andNigeria.ThereportrecommendsthegovernmentsofEthiopia,Malawi,andNigeriaandtheirdevelopmentpartners:1.Increasedomesticandexternalresourcestoachievethetransitiontosustainableagricultureandfoodsystems.ItwouldcostanadditionalUSD10billionperyearonaveragefrom2023to2030;USD4.6billionforEthiopia,USD543millionforMalawi,andUSD4.9billionforNigeria.Ofthetotal,thedonorshareaveragesUSD5.8billionperyear:USD2.7billionforEthiopia,USD472millionforMalawi,andUSD2.3billionforNigeria.IncreasedspendingonthefarminEthiopia,Malawi,andNigeriaandsocialprotectionprogramsinNigeriaaccountformostoftheadditionalneed.2.Urgentlyscaleupofficialdevelopmentassistanceforthelonger-terminvestmentsinagriculture,foodsecurity,andnutritionwhilestrengtheningthelinkbetweenemergencyassistanceandlong-termdevelopmentgoals.Topreventfutureshocksleadingtocrises,donorsshouldstrengthenthelinkbetweenhumanitariananddevelopmentspendingandincreasetheirallocationstolonger-termdevelopmentpriorities,includingdisasterpreparedness,tobuildresiliencethatwouldhelppreventshocksleadingtocrises.3.Strengthenthelinkagesbetweenfoodsystemsandtheenvironmentthroughextensionservices,betterseedchoices,investmentinmachinery,andon-farminterventionsthatprotectsoilhealth,biodiversity,water,andlandresources.Whileallthreecountriesareundertakingeffortstoaddressclimatechangeandenhanceclimateadaptation,moreeffortisrequiredtosupportclimate-resilientagriculturalpracticesthataddressthelinkagesbetweenagricultureandfoodsystems,foodsecurity,andhealthydiets.Thisincludestargetedextensionservicesforthosemostvulnerable,includingwomenandothers,betterseedchoices,investmentinmachineryandequipment,andinterventionstoprotectsoilhealthandbiodiversity,conservewater,andlimitland-coverchange.4.Scaleupandincreasesupportforenvironmentallysustainablelivestockintensificationthroughbetterbreeding,feed,manuremanagement,andashifttosmallruminants.Environmentallysustainableintensificationisneededtoimprovebothcropandlivestockproductivity,butthisislackingindonorandgovernment-fundedprograms.ThelivestocksectoristhebiggestcontributortoGHGemissions,anditscontributiontototalandpercapitaGHGemissionsinthethreecountrieswillcontinuetoriseto2030.Thelivestocksectoralsohaslowproductivitylevels,necessitatingsignificantadditionalinvestmenttodrivesustainableproductivitygrowththroughbetterbreeding,feed,manuremanagement,andashifttosmallruminants.5.Continueandscaleuptargetedsocialprotectionprogramsforthemostvulnerabletosupportnationalnutritionalanddevelopmentobjectivesandbuildresiliencetoclimatechangeandothershocks.Theseshouldbuildonalreadysuccessfullydesignedandimplementedsocialprotectionprograms,particularlythoseinEthiopiaandNigeria.IISDorgviAchievingSustainableFoodSystemsinaGlobalCrisis:SummaryReport6.Accompanyon-andoff-farminvestmentswithnutritioneducationtoimproveconsumerchoices.Initiativesthatprovidenutritioneducationanddeliveradviceonstoringandutilizingdiverse,nutritiousfoodproductsarecriticaltocomplementandmaximizetheimpactofsocialprotection,nutrition,andagriculturalproductivityprograms.7.Focusfoodlossandwastepoliciesandinterventionsonbetterstorageinfrastructureandeducation.Foodlossandwasteisgrowinginallthreecountries,andthereisinsufficientattentionpaidtoaddressingthis.Thefocusofspecificinvestmentsshouldbeonbothenhancinghouseholds’knowledgeaboutfoodwasteandsafefoodstoragemethods,andonstorageinfrastructuredevelopmentalongvaluechains.Thiswouldcontributetopreservinghighlyperishablegoodsandeffortstoimprovefoodsafety.8.Increasesupportforregionalandnationalinstitutionstoimprovecapacitytomonitor,analyze,andinformonprogressandachievements.Thiswillenableinstitutionstobettermonitor,coordinate,andacceleratethesustainableagricultureandfoodsystemstransformation,includingbycollectingdisaggregateddatatoaccountforsubnationalandgenderdifferences.TheserecommendationscloselyalignwiththestrategiesandpathwaysoutlinedbyEthiopia,Malawi,andNigeriaintheirnationalpathwaysforfoodsystemstransformationdevelopedinlightoftheUnitedNationsFoodSystemsSummit(UNFSS)in2021(seeFederalDemocraticRepublicofEthiopia,2021a;FederalRepublicofNigeria,2021c;GovernmentofMalawi,2021b).Thecountryreportsexplainthealignmentbetweenourrecommendationsandthecountry-specificUNFSSfoodsystemstransformationpathways(seeBizikovaetal.,2022a;2022b;2022cformoredetails).Theresults,findings,andrecommendationsofthesereports,andthebroaderprojectfindings,thereforeofferanevidencebaseandafinancingplanonwhichtosupporttheimplementationofthekeypriorityactionareasidentifiedinthecountry’sUNFSSprocesses.IISDorgviiAchievingSustainableFoodSystemsinaGlobalCrisis:SummaryReportTableofContents1.0FoodSystemChallenges 11.1Hunger,Poverty,Small-ScaleProducers,andtheUnaffordabilityofHealthyDiets 11.2DietCompositionandQuality 31.3ClimateChangeImpacts,Mitigation,andAdaptationResponses 52.0FoodSystemOpportunities 82.1ProductivityGap 82.2FoodLossandWaste 92.3FinancingGap 103.0AchievingaSustainableFoodSystemsTransformation:Whatwoulditcost? 113.1AdditionalPublicCostofAchievingSustainableFoodSystemTransformation 113.2TheFinancingGap 153.3HowShouldtheMoneyBeSpent? 184.0Recommendations 214.1Small-ScaleProducersandGHGEmissions 214.2FoodLossandWaste 224.3NutritionandDiets 224.4AdaptingtoClimateChange 224.5SocialProtection 234.6CapacityBuilding 23 IISDorgviiiAchievingSustainableFoodSystemsinaGlobalCrisis:SummaryReportiguresFigure1.Hunger,poverty,andtheunaffordabilityofhealthydietsin2030(baselineprojection) 2Figure2.PrevalenceofundernourishmentinEthiopiafrom2010to2030,estimatesbeforeandincludingtheconflictinTigray 3Figure3.CurrentdietarycompositioninEthiopia,Malawi,andNigeria 4Figure4.AgriculturalGHGemissionsinEthiopia,Malawi,andNigeria 7Figure5.Livestockproductivitylevelsforbovineanimals,2018–2020average 8Figure6.FoodlossesandwasteinEthiopia,Malawi,andNigeria,2021 9Figure7.Financinggapbetweenlong-terminvestmentneedsinagricultureandfoodsecurity,comparedtoemergencyfoodassistance 10Figure8.ComparisonofthecurrentandtargeteddietarycompositioninEthiopia,Malawi,andNigeria:consumptionpercapita 13Figure9.Additionalpublicspendinganddonorcontributionperyear,2023–2030,inEthiopia,Malawi,andNigeria 15Figure10.Top5donorsbyaverageannualdisbursement,2017–2019:Ethiopia,Malawi,andNigeria 16Figure11.Additionaldonorcontributionsneededforlong-termagricultureandfoodsecurityinvestmentcomparedtoemergencyfoodassistance 17Figure12.Summaryofadditionalpublicfundingrequiredgroupedbyinterventioncategory 19IISDorg1AchievingSustainableFoodSystemsinaGlobalCrisis:SummaryReportDespiteprogresstowardAgenda2030andtheSustainableDevelopmentGoals,oneintwelvepeople,or8%oftheglobalpopulation,willstillexperiencehungerby2030(FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations[FAO]etal.,2021).Evenamongthosewhogetenoughcalories,manyaremalnourished,dueinparttotheunaffordabilityofhealthydietsthatwouldprovideenoughcaloriesbutalsosatisfycomplexnutritionalrequirements.HungerhasgrownandwillcontinuetoworseninEthiopia,Malawi,andNigeriaduetoskyrocketingfood,fertilizer,andenergyprices,exacerbatedbytheRussianinvasionofUkraine,theongoingCOVID-19pandemic,violentconflict,economicdownturns,andtheeffectsofclimatechange.InEthiopia,theconflictinTigrayhasrapidlymadethesituationofhungerandpovertyworse.Theuniquepopulationtrajectories,macroeconomicdynamics,foodculturesandpreferences,responsestoclimatechange,andaspirationsofthethreecountriesmeansauniquepackageofsolutionsisneededforeachcountry.UnaffordabilityofHealthyDiets2Hungerandpovertyarecriticalchallengesinallthreecountries,withsignificantlevelsexpectedtopersistafter2030.Accordingtothemostrecentestimatesavailable,24%ofEthiopians,69%ofMalawians(in2016),and39%ofNigerians(in2018)livebelowtheextremepovertythresholdofUSD1.90perday(WorldBankDevelopmentResearchGroup,2021).Incomparison,theaverageprevalenceofpovertyinsub-SaharanAfricawas35%in2019(WorldBankDevelopmentResearchGroup,2021).Theseissuesarecompoundedbygrowingdemographicpressureandeconomicneed,necessitatingasignificantincreaseinfoodconsumptionandproductiontoaddressthenutritionalneedsofitspopulation.Yet,theprojectionsarenotoptimistic.By2030,theprojectionsfromthemodelshowthat18%ofEthiopians,72%ofMalawians,and46%ofNigerianswilllivebelowtheextremepovertythreshold.Accordingtorecentestimates,16%ofEthiopians,17%ofMalawians,and18%ofNigeriansarenotreceivingsufficientfoodinayeartomeettheirphysicalenergyneeds,asdefinedbytheprevalenceofundernourishment(PoU)(FAOetal.,2021).By2030,theprojectionsfromthemodelshowthat22%ofEthiopians,25%ofMalawians,and21%ofNigerianswillnothavesufficientfoodinayeartomeettheirbody’senergyneeds.Critically,thesestatisticsalsomaskin-countryvariationsinsubnationalprevalenceanddistributionbetweengenders,regions,andurbanandruralareas.Beyondadequatecalories,nutritiousdietsareunaffordableformostpeopleinallthreecountries.Accordingtorecentestimates,84%ofEthiopians,94%ofMalawians,and91%ofNigerianscannotaffordahealthydiet,definedbyanincomeofUSD3.50perday(FAOetal.,2020).By2030,theprojectionsfromthemodelshowthatabout77%ofEthiopians,over90%ofMalawians,andover90%ofNigerianswillnotbeabletoaffordahealthydiet.2Note:AssociatedtoSDGtargets:2.1,2.2&2.3IISD.org3Percentageoftotalpopulation20AchievingSustainableFoodSystemsinaGlobalCrisis:SummaryReportPercentageoftotalpopulation20Figure2.PrevalenceofundernourishmentinEthiopiafrom2010to2030,estimatesbeforeandincludingtheconflictinTigray30+12%orabout17.5miopeople105NewprojectionsSOFI2022SOFI2020Ceres2030projections020102015202020252030Note:*NewprojectionsbasedontheMIRAGRODEPmodel,usingsamebaselineassumptionsasintheIFPRI-FAOpartnershipforSOFI2022(FAOetal.,2022)Source:CreatedusingdatafromFAOetal.,2020,2022;Labordeetal.,2020bandapproachfromFAO&1.2DietCompositionandQuality3Theunaffordabilityofhealthydiets,alongwithotherfactors,meansthatinallthreecountriescarbohydrate-richstaplefoods—includingcereals,grains,starchyroots,andplantains—disproportionatelydominatefoodconsumption.Thisholdstrueacrossallincomegroups,althoughhigher-incomehouseholdshavehigherdietarydiversity.Whileimportantforcaloricsufficiency,thecurrentoverrelianceonstaplefoodsleavessignificantnutritionalgaps(SeeFigure3),leadingtomalnutrition,whichisakeyriskfactorfornon-communicablediseases.Inaddition,childhoodmalnutritionimpactschildren’shealthanddevelopmentandtheireducationalandeconomicoutcomeslaterinlife(Brancaetal.,2019).Anemia,stuntinginchildren,andwastingareallstillprevalentissuesinthethreecountries,whilesimultaneouslytheoccurrenceofobesityisincreasingandmaybecomeamoresalientissueasthecountriescontinuetodevelopandurbanize.3Note:AssociatedtoSDGtarget2.2.IISDorg43.6%Other3.2%Vegetables34%.Cereals&starchesVegetableoils10.0%Legumes,nuts,&seeds5.8%5.3%OtherSweets&alcoholicbeverages6.5%Vegetableoils7.0%Cereals&starchesLegumes,nuts,&seedsVegetables3.0%3.9%Vegetables1.5%Dairy3.6%Other3.2%Vegetables34%.Cereals&starchesVegetableoils10.0%Legumes,nuts,&seeds5.8%5.3%OtherSweets&alcoholicbeverages6.5%Vegetableoils7.0%Cereals&starchesLegumes,nuts,&seedsVegetables3.0%3.9%Vegetables1.5%Dairy0.8%Other7.8%Cereals&starchesLegumes,nuts,&seeds12.2%VegetableoilsFigure3.CurrentdietarycompositioninEthiopia,Malawi,andNigeria,aggregatedbyfoodgroup,percapita,perdayDairyDairy2.1%Animalfoods(excludingdairy)1.0%Fruits0.5%Sweets&alcoholicbeverages72.2%EETHIOPIAAnimalAnimalfoods(excludingdairy)3.8%Fruits1.0%Dairy0.5%MMALAWIFruitsFruits1.6%SweetsSweets&alcoholicbeverages47%AnimalfoodsAnimalfoods(excludingdairy)NIGERINIGERIASources:Authors’analysisofLivingStandardsMeasurementSurvey(LSMS)data.LSMS–IHSEthiopiaWave52018–2019(WorldBank,2020b),LSMS–IHSMalawiWave52019–2020(WorldBank,2020a),LSMS-GHSNigeriaHarvestQuestionnaireWave42018–2019(WorldBank,2019),andnutrientcoefficientsbasedonFAOSTAT–SUA(FAO,2021).IISDorg5AchievingSustainableFoodSystemsinaGlobalCrisis:SummaryReportAccordingtoanalysisoftheLSMSdata,mosthouseholdsinthethreecountriesareoverlyreliantoncerealsandstarchesandunder-consumefruitsandvegetables(WorldBank,2019,2020a,2020b).Whilethereissomevariationbetweenregionsandincomegroups,themajorityofhouseholdsinallthreecountriesconsumelessthantheWorldHealthOrganization’s(WHO’s)recommendationof400goffruitsandvegetablesperday(“vegetables”excludesstarchyroots)(WHO,2020).Despitetheirimportanceformeetingawidevarietyofmicronutrientneeds(includingvitaminAandironthatarecommonlyinsufficientindiets),fruitsandvegetablesaccountforlessthan10%ofaveragefoodintakeineachstudiedcountry.Inparticular,fruitconsumptionishighlyseasonalformosthouseholdsduetohighperishabilityandinadequatetransportationinfrastructure,especiallyinruralareas.Toprogresstowardhealthierdiets,animal-sourcefoodsmustbeincreasinglyincludedindietsinEthiopia,Malawi,andNigeria.Animal-sourcefoodsarethemostefficientandeffectivewayforat-riskpopulationstogetsufficientamountsofkeynutrients,suchaszinc,iron,vitaminA,vitaminB12,calcium,andselenium(see,forexample,Murphy&Allen,2003;Raitenetal.,2020;Thompson&Amoroso,2011).Thisisakeytrade-offinthesustainablefoodsystemstransitioninthesecountriessinceanimal-sourcefoodsarealsotheoneswiththehighestGHGemissions.Legumes,nuts,andseedsalsocontributeimportantnutrientstodiets,especiallyzinc,iron,andprotein.Inparticular,legumeshaveahistoryasanimportantpartofEthiopiandiets,arerelativelyaffordable,andhaveimportantbenefitsforenvironmentallysustainableagriculturalproduction.FeedbackfromstakeholderconsultationsstronglyrecommendedthatmeasurestomaintainorincreasetheconsumptionofthisfoodgroupinEthiopiawouldhaveimportantenvironmentalandhealthbenefitsforthepopulation.Intermsofnutritionpolicies,EthiopiaandNigeriahavenationaldietaryguidelines,whileMalawidoesnot.Likemanycountriesinsub-SaharanAfrica,Malawidoesnothaveasetofnationalfood-baseddietaryguidelines;however