2023W72023W7|農(nóng)業(yè)通過(guò)區(qū)域酒上漲看白酒復(fù)蘇邏輯分析師張立聰S1450517070005馬帥S1450518120001趙國(guó)防S1450521120008羅乾生S1450522010002王朔S1450522030005李奕臻S1450520020001韓星雨S1450522080002余昆S1450521070002賀鑫S1450522110001馮俊曦S1450520010002陸偲聰S1450522100001聯(lián)系人陳偉浩、連國(guó)強(qiáng)、賴雯、邢樂(lè)涵、胡家東、侯雅楠、王玲瑤、萬(wàn)雨萌、夏心怡、涂雅晴歷往白酒投資周期總是按照“高中低檔”的順序演繹，高端白酒多領(lǐng)漲行業(yè)。此次白行情演繹順端和次高端表現(xiàn)較弱。背后的原因是復(fù)蘇節(jié)奏是放。當(dāng)下仍然在享受場(chǎng)景復(fù)蘇紅利，區(qū)域酒受益于宴席等場(chǎng)景恢復(fù)基本面率先改善，后續(xù)財(cái)富效應(yīng)釋放、商務(wù)活動(dòng)改。2019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092023-012019-012019-032019-052019-072019-092020-012020-032020-052020-072020-092021-012021-032021-052021-072021-092022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092023-01老白干、今世緣、迎駕貢等公司基本上漲至20年底21年初位置貴州茅臺(tái)老白干酒迎駕貢酒今世緣古井貢貴州茅臺(tái)老白干酒迎駕貢酒今世緣450%400%350%300%250%200%50%%-50%簡(jiǎn)稱簡(jiǎn)稱2016Q32016Q42017Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42018Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42019Q12019Q22019Q32019Q42% % 5%-12%-14%2% % 5%-12%-14%-18% -2% -7%-11% -1% -2%-17% -6% -6%-14%-14%35% 39% 4% -3% 6% -3%-10% -6% 2% 37%-14%-3%-10%-2%-17%-14% -4%-23%-16% -9% -6%-11% -13% -6%-20%-21%-15%%2% 2% 2% 0% -9% % -9% -2% -2%-10% -2%-24%0%12% %28% 5% 5%17% 5% %-1%-8% %-4%8%0% 22% 29% 20% 2%-17% 0% -1% 0% 0%-10% 0%-17%-7% 11%59%47%54%70%17%21%21% 2%26%18%-1%12%-1%-14%0% 20% 30% 22% 51% 45% 21% 42% 20%-18%-1%84%0% 5% 57%-11%-14% -3% 22%-13%-15% -4%-15%-19%-25%-14%-26%-18%-21%-23%-26%-35%-28%-12%-32%-30%-32%-17%-30%36%25%28%17%15% 8%29%24%12% -1% 9%31%-3% 4%-2%-30%45%87%64%73%41%62%42%38%99%98%29%55%65%51%71%90%-3% 24% 21% -16% -2% -7% -3% -1% -10%-30% -5%-23% 5% 57%-11%-14% -3% 22%-13%-15% -4%-15%-1%瀘州老窖端酒鬼酒水井坊洋河古井貢酒迎駕貢伊力特老白干順鑫農(nóng)業(yè)金徽酒040200040200春節(jié)旅游出游人次顯著回暖春節(jié)檔總票房顯著回暖春節(jié)旅游出游人次(億)YOY540%420%30%2-20%1-40%0-60%20192020202120222023春節(jié)檔總票房(億元)YOY2019202020212022202340%30%20%10%0%-20%-30%節(jié)后商務(wù)和宴席恢復(fù)情況①餐飲宴席等場(chǎng)景較去年同期表現(xiàn)較好(預(yù)計(jì)恢復(fù)至往年同期8-9成)，而商務(wù)場(chǎng)景略弱(預(yù)計(jì)恢復(fù)至往年同期6-7成)②200-400元大眾酒價(jià)位帶動(dòng)銷最好③節(jié)后預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)有團(tuán)購(gòu)訂單宴席消費(fèi)會(huì)超過(guò)去年20-30%，宴席銷售方面紅白宴席較多，品味舍得銷量更大一些安徽①100-300元大眾價(jià)位帶表現(xiàn)不錯(cuò)；②年后宴席預(yù)定量同比往年趨勢(shì)提升①100~300以上產(chǎn)品動(dòng)銷加速，禮品達(dá)到高峰；②300元以上產(chǎn)品可能在今年的二三月份回補(bǔ)2023/12022/72022/12021/72021/12020/72020/12019/72019/12019/12023/12022/72022/12021/72021/12020/72020/12019/72023/12022/72022/12021/72021/12020/72020/12019/72019/12019/12023/12022/72022/12021/72021/12020/72020/12019/7飛天茅臺(tái)和普五的批價(jià)較去年高點(diǎn)仍處低位廠價(jià)(元)茅臺(tái)一批價(jià)(元)普五出廠價(jià)(元)普五一批價(jià)(元)400034000350030002500200050009509008508007507002022/3/312020/3/312018/3/312016/3/312014/3/312012/3/312010/3/312008/3/312006/3/312004/3/312002/3/312000/3/3160%50%40%30%20%10% 0%-20%固定資產(chǎn)投資與白酒營(yíng)收白酒上市公司主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)收入yoy 固定資產(chǎn)投資完成額:累計(jì)同比60%40%20%%2022/3/312020/3/312018/3/312016/3/312014/3/312012/3/312010/3/312008/3/312006/3/312004/3/312002/3/312000/3/3160%50%40%30%20%10% 0%-20%固定資產(chǎn)投資與白酒營(yíng)收白酒上市公司主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)收入yoy 固定資產(chǎn)投資完成額:累計(jì)同比60%40%20%%-20%房地產(chǎn)投資與白酒營(yíng)收白酒上市公司主營(yíng)業(yè)務(wù)收入yoy 房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)投資完成額:累計(jì)同比 2002/3/31 2000/3/31 2022/3/31 2020/3/31 2018/3/312016/3/31 2012/3/31 2010/3/31 2008/3/31 2006/3/31 2004/3/31醫(yī)藥生物紡織服飾鋼鐵通信石油石化建筑材醫(yī)藥生物紡織服飾鋼鐵通信石油石化建筑材料輕工制造食品飲料美容護(hù)理電力設(shè)備電子房地產(chǎn)綜合有色金屬公用事業(yè)計(jì)算機(jī)商貿(mào)零售農(nóng)林牧漁非銀金融國(guó)防軍工汽車建筑裝飾環(huán)保銀行交通運(yùn)輸機(jī)械設(shè)備家用電器煤炭基礎(chǔ)化工社會(huì)服務(wù)傳媒4%3%2%1%0%-2%-3%-4%-5%漲跌幅(%)期顯5.2VR概念調(diào)整張立聰李奕臻韓星雨余昆陳偉浩202201202202202203202204202205202206202207202208202209202210202211202212202301202302202201202202202203202204202205202206202207202208202209202210202211202212202301202302荷蘭天然氣交易中心天然氣價(jià)格(歐元/兆瓦時(shí))40035030025020002020/042020/052020/062020/072020/082020/092020/102020/112020/122021/012021/022021/032021/042020/042020/052020/062020/072020/082020/092020/102020/112020/122021/012021/022021/032021/042021/052021/062021/072021/082021/092021/102021/112021/122022/012022/022022/032022/042022/052022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022020/012020/052020/092020/132020/172020/212020/252020/292020/332020/372020/412020/452020/492020/532021/42021/822020/012020/052020/092020/132020/172020/212020/252020/292020/332020/372020/412020/452020/492020/532021/42021/82021/122021/162021/202021/242021/282021/322021/362021/402021/442021/482021/522022/42022/82022/122022/162022/202022/242022/282022/322022/362022/402022/442022/482022/522023/450%40%30%20%10% 0%-20%-30%-40%-50%2020/012020/052020/092020/132020/172020/212020/252020/292020/332020/372020/412020/452020/492020/532021/42021/82021/1222020/012020/052020/092020/132020/172020/212020/252020/292020/332020/372020/412020/452020/492020/532021/42021/82021/122021/162021/202021/242021/282021/322021/362021/402021/442021/482021/522022/42022/82022/122022/162022/202022/242022/282022/322022/362022/402022/442022/482022/522023/490%70%50%30%-30%-50%4-25.3%-56.3%283%%單位：美元/噸2021/01/022020單位：美元/噸2021/01/022020/11/022020/09/022020/07/022020/05/022020/03/022020/01/022023/01/022022/11/022022/09/022022/07/022022/05/022022/03/022022/01/022021/11/022021/09/022021/07/022021/05/022021/03/02LME3個(gè)月銅期貨收盤價(jià)(左軸)YoY(右軸)去年同期單價(jià)10009美元02月16日單價(jià)8931美元80006000400020000100%80%60%去年同期單價(jià)10009美元02月16日單價(jià)8931美元80006000400020000LME、Wind、安信證券研究中80%60%80%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%單位：美元/噸4500400035003000250020005000LME3個(gè)月鋁期貨收盤價(jià)(左軸)LME3個(gè)月鋁期貨收盤價(jià)(左軸)YoY(右軸)去年同期單價(jià)3240美元02月16日單價(jià)2381美元2023/01/022022/11/022022/09/022022/07/022022/05/022022/03/022022/01/022021/11/022021/09/022021/07/022021/05/022021/03/022021/01/022020/11/022020/09/022020/07/022020/05/022020/03/022020/01/022020/01/022020/03/022020/05/022020/07/022020/09/022020/11/022021/01/022021/03/022021/05/022021/07/022021/09/022021/11/022022/01/022020/01/022020/03/022020/05/022020/07/022020/09/022020/11/022021/01/022021/03/022021/05/022021/07/022021/09/022021/11/022022/01/022022/03/022022/05/022022/07/022022/09/022022/11/022023/01/02402月17日中間價(jià)6.927.0去年同期中間價(jià)6.3去年同期中間價(jià)6.3元人幣間6.26.26.0.82020-01-022020-03-022020-05-022020-07-022020-09-022021-01-022021-03-022021-05-022021-07-022021-09-022022-01-022020-01-022020-03-022020-05-022020-07-022020-09-022021-01-022021-03-022021-05-022021-07-022021-09-022022-01-022022-03-022022-05-022022-07-022022-09-022023-01-02A%25滬深通持股流通例5()02020-01-022020-03-022020-05-022020-07-022020-09-022021-01-022021-03-022021-05-022021-07-022021-09-022020-01-022020-03-022020-05-022020-07-022020-09-022021-01-022021-03-022021-05-022021-07-022021-09-022022-01-022022-03-022022-05-022022-07-022022-09-022023-01-02股比例()A%蘇泊爾科沃斯石頭科技滬港股流通864202020-01-092020-09-072020-12-082021-01-062021-02-032020-01-092020-09-072020-12-082021-01-062021-02-032021-04-082021-06-082021-07-072021-08-042021-09-012022-02-072022-03-072022-04-062022-05-092022-06-072022-07-052022-08-022022-08-302022-09-292023-02-01%45外資40股股自流股比15(5)0漲跌幅速PE(扣除FCFF)7776-0.1%9-1.3%9漲跌幅速PE(扣除FCFF)0.1%-18-18-10%-3%99AO史密斯-1%-1%-154-161%%漲跌幅速PE(扣除FCFF)2%-1%-74-1%-3%98-1.7%-3%漲跌幅速PE(扣除FCFF)9%-0.7%771.2%5.2%0.2% SW SW化學(xué)制藥SW中藥SW生物制品SW醫(yī)藥商業(yè)SW醫(yī)療器械SW醫(yī)療服務(wù) 2019/01/012019/01/012019/08/012020/03/012020/10/012021/05/012021/12/012022/07/012020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012020-012020-052020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-012020-012020-052020-092021-012021-052021-092022-012022-052022-092023-01全國(guó)新型冠狀病毒肺炎中高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)地區(qū)數(shù)7020000600040500000002200000000中國(guó)醫(yī)療機(jī)構(gòu)診療總?cè)舜巫兓?單位：億人次)中國(guó)等級(jí)醫(yī)院床位使用率變化(單位：%)院2019-062019-112020-042020-092021-022021-072021-122022-05北方省份流感病毒陽(yáng)性標(biāo)本檢測(cè)結(jié)果(例，截至2023年2月17日)YamagataVictoriaB未分系A(chǔ)(unsubtyped)甲型(H1N1)A(H3N2)陽(yáng)性率800600400200040%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%%第1周第6周第11周第16周第21周第26周第31周第36周第41周第46周第51周第4周南方省份流感病毒陽(yáng)性標(biāo)本檢測(cè)結(jié)果(例，截至2023年2月10日)YamagataVictoriaB未分系A(chǔ)(unsubtyped)甲型(H1N1)A(H3N2)陽(yáng)性率2000800600400200040%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%第1周第6周第11周第16周第21周第26周第31周第36周第41周第46周第51周第4周食飲數(shù)據(jù)跟蹤邢樂(lè)涵SW軟飲料休閑食品SWSW軟飲料休閑食品SWSW啤酒SW食品飲料SW乳品SW調(diào)味發(fā)酵品SW白酒A股食品飲料子版塊區(qū)間漲跌幅(單位：%)近一周漲跌幅(算術(shù)平均)近一月漲跌幅(算術(shù)平均)近一年漲跌幅(算術(shù)平均)8642023003002023/12022/112022/92022/72023/12022/112022/92022/72022/52022/32022/12021/112021/92021/72021/52021/32021/12020/112020/92020/72020/52020/32020/12019/112019/92019/72019/52019/32019/1海天味業(yè)2520跟蹤建材家居賣場(chǎng)銷售額當(dāng)月值、當(dāng)月同比(億元，%)8006004002000銷售額:建材家居賣場(chǎng):當(dāng)月值(億元，左軸)銷售額:建材家居賣場(chǎng):當(dāng)月同比(%，右軸)2022-012022-032022-052022-072022-092022-112023-0180040200-20-40-60軟體家具上游TDI國(guó)內(nèi)現(xiàn)貨價(jià)、純MDI現(xiàn)貨價(jià)(元/噸)35000300002500020000500002020-03-162020-08-162021-01-162021-06-162021-11-162022-04-162022-09-162023-02-16外盤針葉漿、闊葉漿價(jià)格走勢(shì)(美元/噸)8006004002000外盤針葉漿價(jià)格外盤闊葉漿價(jià)格(右軸)9008000060050040030020002020-02-162020-08-162021-02-162021-08-162022-02-162022-08-162023-02-16紙品價(jià)格變動(dòng)一覽(元/噸，截至2月17日).15%0.15%4%0.19%%%%%7%00全國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)&中端酒店月度數(shù)據(jù)較2019年同期同比/%80040209月第三周9月第二周第四周第四周第四周第二周第四周第五周第三周第二周第四周2月第二周2月全國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)&中端酒店整體出租率周度數(shù)據(jù)8005040200全國(guó)整體：出租率%出租率YOY/%(右軸)第四周三周第五周第四周第三周第二周第四周第三周第二周第四周第二周第四周第二周月2月80040200-20-40-60250200250200500全國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)&中端酒店整體平均房?jī)r(jià)周度數(shù)據(jù)全國(guó)整體：平均房?jī)r(jià)/元平均房?jī)r(jià)YOY/%(右軸)三周第四周三周第四周第二周第四周第五周第四周第三周第二周第二周2月0252050-5-10-15-20-252月第二周全國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)&中端酒店RevPAR同比+77.5%,環(huán)比+22.0%全國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)&中端酒店整體RevPAR周度數(shù)據(jù)80040200全國(guó)整體：RevPar/元RevParYOY/%(右軸)三周第四周三周第四周第二周第四周第五周第四周第三周第二周第二周2月250200500-50-100華北/華東/華南地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)&中端酒店出租率周度同比數(shù)據(jù)華北：出租率YOY/%華東：出租率YOY/%華南：出租率YOY/%200500-50-100第三周月第四周第四周三周第五周第四周第三周第二周第四周第三周第二周2月第二周2月2月第二周華北/華東/華南酒店ADR華北/華東/華南地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)&中端酒店平均房?jī)r(jià)周度同比數(shù)據(jù)華北：平均房?jī)r(jià)YOY/%華東：平均房?jī)r(jià)YOY/%華南：平均房?jī)r(jià)YOY/%05040200-10-20-30-40第三周月第四周第四周三周第五周第四周第三周第二周第四周第三周第二周2月第二周2月2月第二周華北/華東/華南酒店RevPAR華北/華東/華南地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)&中端酒店RevPAR周度同比數(shù)據(jù)250200500-50-100第三周月第四周第四周三周第五周第四周第三周第二周第四周第三周第二周2月第二周2月?？诿捞m機(jī)場(chǎng)進(jìn)出港航班量(班次)60050040030020001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1三亞鳳凰機(jī)場(chǎng)進(jìn)出港航班量(班次)450400350300250200505001/12/13/14/15/16/17/18/19/110/111/112/1我國(guó)內(nèi)地/國(guó)際/港澳臺(tái)日均執(zhí)飛航班量(架次)80006000400020000內(nèi)地日均執(zhí)飛航班(架次)國(guó)際日均執(zhí)飛航班(架次，右軸)港澳臺(tái)日均執(zhí)飛航班(架次，右軸)25020050022-0122-0222-0322-0422-0522-0622-0722-0822-0922-1022-1122-1223-0123-022.5210.50印度培育鉆石毛坯進(jìn)口額(億美元)YoY(右軸)3000%2500%2000%500%0%-500%2019.062019.102020.022020.062020.102021.022021.062021.102022.022022.062022.10印度培育鉆石毛坯進(jìn)口額(億美元)印度天然鉆石毛坯進(jìn)口額(億美元)培育鉆石進(jìn)口額滲透率(右軸)25205014.0%12.0%10.0%8.0%6.0%4.0%2.0%0.0%2019.062019.102020.022020.062020.102021.022021.062021.102022.022022.062022.101.81.61.41.2 0.80.60.40.20印度培育鉆石裸鉆出口額(億美元)YoY(右軸)2000%500%0%-500%2019.062019.102020.022020.062020.102021.022021.062021.102022.022022.062022.10252050印度培育鉆石裸鉆出口額(億美元)裸鉆總出口額(億美元)培育鉆石出口額滲透率(右軸)9.0%8.0%7.0%6.0%5.0%4.0%3.0%2.0%0.0%2019.062019.102020.022020.062020.102021.022021.062021.102022.022022.062022.10anApr-20JunanApr-20JunJul-20AuganApr-21JunJul-21AuganApr-22JunJul-22Augan 窄服裝鞋帽、針、紡織品類月度零售額(億元，左軸)YoY(%，右軸)000250200500服裝及衣著附件出口金額(億美元，左軸)YoY(%，右軸)60%20%-20%-60%-100%紡織紗線、織物及制品出口總額(億美元，左軸)YoY(%，右軸)25025020060%20050500-100%0300002800026000240002200020000中國(guó)328棉花-進(jìn)口棉價(jià)差(右軸)進(jìn)口棉價(jià)格指數(shù)中國(guó)328棉花價(jià)格指數(shù)400020000-2000-4000-6000-80002021-012021-042021-072021-102022-012022-042022-072022-102023-01保溫杯出口額走勢(shì)(百萬(wàn)美元)中國(guó)保溫杯出口總額(百萬(wàn)美元，左軸)同比增長(zhǎng)(%，右軸)25020050-2020-12020-42020-72020-102021-12021-42021-72021-102022-12022-42022-72022-1080%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%第1周第4周第7周第25周第28周2019/42019/82019/122020/42020/82020/122021/42021/82021/122022/42022/82022/12第1周第4周第7周第25周第28周2019/42019/82019/122020/42020/82020/122021/42021/82021/122022/42022/82022/12種豬和仔豬價(jià)格(元/頭)種豬和仔豬價(jià)格(元/頭)15kg仔豬價(jià)50kg二元母豬價(jià)(右軸)2019202020212022202370004540700045406000200050003040004000300025201000200050005000002021-062021-072021-082021-092022-012022-022022-032022-042022-052022-062022-072022-082022-092021-062021-072021-082021-09