AsiaPacificEquityResearch

22June2022

IndonesiaCement

Valueemergingonimprovingearningsvisibility;Stay

OWonSMGRandINTP

WeremainOWonSMGRandINTPonthebackof:(1)easingcompetitionassecond-tierbrandshavestartedtoraiseASPinthepasttwomonths,albeittoalessermagnituderelativetothemainbrands(GresikandTigaRoda);(2)positivedevelopmentonDMOcoal(coalpricecappedat~$55/tcomparedtoICI4spotpricesat>$85/twithfuturespointingto>$90/tin3Q22)withSMGRsecuringDMOcoalsupplyfortheremainderoftheyearandINTPsecuring~20%oftheremainingannualrequirement(vs.merely<10%twoweeksago);and(3)positivepricingactionspotentiallyleadingtostrongoperatingleverage,ifcostpressurenormalizes.SMGRhasoutperformedINTPby21%inthepast3M,whichwasdrivenmainlybyaconfirmationthatSMGRhasfullysecuredDMOcoalsupplyforthisyear(seepreviousnote).INTPisdown22%YTD(vs.JCI/SMGR+7%/-1%),thoughconsensusearningshaveonlybeenreviseddownby11%forthesameperiod.Inourview,thisde-ratingsuggeststhemarkethasalreadyanticipatedINTP’sweak2Q22earningsonlimitedDMOcoalsupply,whichlimitsfurtherdownsideatthisjuncture.WebelieveanyincrementalpositivedevelopmentonINTP’sDMOcoalprocurementshoulddriveupsideinshareprice,whilerationalizingcompetitivelandscapeandstrongervolumegrowthin2H22shouldalsohelp.Separately,weremainpositiveonSMGR,justifiedbyitsearningsvisibility(onthebackofDMOcoal)andattractivevaluationof6.5xEBITDA(-2SD10yrmean).WestayOWonINTP,withalowerTPofRp11,500(fromRp15,500)basedon12xEBITDA,andSMGR,withahigherTPofRp9,300(fromRp8,500)basedon8xEBITDA.INTP’spremiumvaluationiswarrantedonitsnetcashbalancesheet,5%yield,andstrongCGunderHeidelbergCement.

Theworstappearstobeover.SMGR’sabilitytosecureDMOcoalfortheremainingoftheyearledtoitsrecent21%outperformancevs.INTPinthepast3M.WeseefurtherupsidetoSMGRasitstilltradesat6.5xEBITDA(similartoCovid-bottom)despiteimprovedearningsvisibility.Ontheflipside,INTP’srecentde-ratingsuggeststhatweak2Q22earningsareintheprice,whileanyincrementalpositivedevelopmentonDMOcoalprocurementshoulddriveupsideheadinginto2H22,inourview.Wethink2Q22earningsshouldmarkthebottomaswegointohigherinfraseasonalityin3Q22,DMOcoalimpactkicksinin3Q22,andrationalizingcompetition.

Modelupdate.WecutINTP’s2022/23EEBITDAandNPATestimatesby14%/7%and17%/5%,respectively,mainlyledbyhighercoalprices(assumingDMOcoalsupplyonlyin2H22).Incontrast,wereviseupSMGR2022/23EEBITDAandNPATestimatesby8%/9%and19%/13%,respectively,onlowercoalcost(owedtoDMOcoalsince1Q22).

Indonesia

HeadofIndonesiaResearch&Strategy

HenryWibowoAC

(622-1)52918526

henry.wibowo@

BloombergJPMAHWIBOWO<GO>

PTJ.P.MorganSekuritasIndonesia

ArnantoJanuri

(622-1)52918047

arnanto.januri@

PTJ.P.MorganSekuritasIndonesia

PoWei

(852)28008537

po.wei@

J.P.MorganSecurities(AsiaPacific)Limited/J.P.MorganBroking(HongKong)Limited

EquityRatingsandPriceTargets

Company

Ticker

MktCap($mn)

Price

CCY

Price

Rating

PriceTarget

Cur

Prev

Cur

End

Date

Prev

EndDate

IndocementTunggalPrakarsa

SemenIndonesia

INTPIJSMGRIJ

2.332.86

IDR

IDR

9,400

7,150

OW

OW

n/c

n/c

11,500

9,300

Dec-22

Dec-22

15,500

8,500

n/cn/c

Source:Companydata,BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.Morganestimates.n/c=nochange.Allpricesasof21Jun22.

Seepage16foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures,includingnon-USanalystdisclosures.

J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

2

HenryWibowo

(622-1)52918526

henry.wibowo@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

22June2022

IsDMOcoalagamechanger?

SharepriceperformanceofbothSMGRandINTPtendstofollowconsensusearningsrevisions.Inthepast12-18months,consensushavereviseddownearningsasthecoalpricewenthigherforlonger.Additionally,valuationmultipleshavebecomesomewhatirrelevantforgaugingcementstockvaluationsgiventheearningsuncertaintyoncoalpricemovements–whichthenledtovaluationde-rating.Consequently,SMGR/INTPhavenotablyunderperformedtheJCIby47%/25%inthepast1Y.Thatsaid,webelievetheabilitytosecurecoalatDMOprice(cappedat~$55/tcomparedtoICI4spotpricesat>$85/twithfuturespointingto>$90/tin3Q22)isakeycatalystforvaluationstore-rate.Thiswarrantshigherearningsvisibilityandlowerearningsdownside,whichshouldjustifymultiplere-rating,inourview.

SMGRhassecuredDMOcoalfortheremainderoftheyearfordomestic

production,whichislargelyowedtoitslong-termrelationshipswithcoalsuppliersontopofitslargecoalconsumption(6-7mntonsannually,henceeconomiesofscale).Thishasledtoa9%rallyinthepast3MandevenoutperformingtheJCIby8%.Webelievethereisstillfurtherupsidegivenwherevaluationsitsnowat6.5xEBITDA(-2SD10yrmean),whichisstillatalevelsimilartotheCovid-19bottominApr’20.Asacomparison,JCI’sPEvaluationhasgoneupfromtheCovid-19bottomof10xto15xnow.StayOWonSMGR.

INTPhassecured~20%oftheremainingannualrequirementatDMO

price.Basedonourestimate,thisisstilllessthanaquarterofthecoalconsumptionneed(600-750ktonsofcoalperquarter);however,thisisstillapositivedevelopmentcomparedtotwoweeksagoatjust<10%.INTPisdownby22%YTD,thoughconsensusearningshaveonlybeenreviseddownby11%forthesameperiod.Thisvaluationde-ratingsuggeststhemarkethasalreadyanticipatedINTP’sweak2Q22resultsonlimitedDMOcoalandweexpectearningstobottomin2Q22(resultstocomeoutinJul-Aug).Hence,webelieveanyincrementalpositivedevelopmentonDMOcoalprocurementshoulddriveupsideinshareprice,whiletherationalizingcompetitivelandscapeandstrongervolumegrowthin2H22shouldalsohelp.StayOWonINTP.

3

HenryWibowo

(622-1)52918526

henry.wibowo@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

22June2022

Valuation

SMGRcurrentlytradesat6.5xEBITDA(-2SDLTmean),whileINTPtradesat9xEBITDA(vs.14xLTmean).WeexpectINTPtoreportrelativelyweak2Q22results(similarto1Q22)duetohighercoalcost(noDMOcoal),butwethinkthatthisishighlyexpectedbytheStreetsodownsidehereshouldbelimited.INTP’sincrementalpositivedevelopmentonitsDMOcoalsupplyshouldbeakeysharepricedriveroverthenextfewmonths.BothSMGRandINTPnowtradeatlevelssimilartotheCovid-bottominApr-20(Fig.1-2),whereasJCIhasre-ratedfrom10xinApr-20to15xnow(Fig.3).

Figure1:SMGR5yrEV/EBITDA

14.0

13.0+2SD,12.7

12.0

+1SD,11.2

11.0

10.0Average,9.6

9.0

-1SD,8.1

8.0

7.0

-2SD,6.5

6.0

5.0Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.Morganestimates.

Figure2:INTP5yrEV/EBITDA

+2SD,23.323.0

+1SD,18.8

18.0

Average,14.3

13.0

-1SD,9.7

8.0

-2SD,5.2

3.0Jun-17Dec-17Jun-18Dec-18Jun-19Dec-19Jun-20Dec-20Jun-21Dec-21

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.Morgan.

4

HenryWibowo

(622-1)52918526

henry.wibowo@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

22June2022

Figure3:JCI5yrP/E

19.5

+2SD,18.6

17.5+1SD,17.0

15.5average,15.5

13.5-1SD,13.9

-2SD,12.4

11.5

9.5

Source:BloombergFinanceL.P.,J.P.Morgan.

DomesticMarketObligation(DMO)coal

TheIndonesiancementindustryisexpectedtoconsume16.6mntonsofcoalin2022(rangingfrom3,800-5,300kcal).INTPconsumesaround2.5-3mntonsofcoalperannum,whileSMGRconsumes6.5-7mntonsperannum.TheMinistryofEnergyandMineralResourcesissuedanewregulation(No.206/2021)inlate-Oct’21whichextendedtheDMOcoalregulationintotheCementandFertilizerindustries,butonlyeligibleuntil31March2022.Thiseffectivelyputsapricecapof$90/tfor~6,300kcalequivalentcoalfortheseindustries.Previously,DMOcoalwasonlyallocatedforthepowersectorinIndonesiawitha$70/tpricecap,ofwhichPLN(SOEelectriccompany)isthemainoff-taker.

AsthecoalpricecontinuestoincreaseYTD(+154%YTD),theMinistryofEnergyandMineralResourcesissuedanotherregulation(No.58/2022)inApril2022,whicheffectivelyexpandedthescopeofindustrieseligibleforthe$90/tDMOcoal(allindustriesexcludingmetalprocessing/smeltingindustries)andremovedthetimelimitoftheregulation(previouslyonlyuntil31Mar2022).Assuch,thecementindustryiseligibleforDMOcoalsupplyfortheremainderoftheyear.

5

HenryWibowo

(622-1)52918526

henry.wibowo@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

22June2022

Figure4:INTPfuelandpowercost(pertonRpk/t)

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

60%50%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%

Fuelandpowercost(perton;Rpk/t)YoYgrowth(%;RHS)Source:Companydata.

Table1:INTPearningsrevisions

Figure5:SMGRfuelandpowercost(perton;Rpk/t)

280

260

240

220

200

180

160

140

120

100

1Q202Q203Q204Q201Q212Q213Q214Q211Q22

Fuelandenergycost(perton;Rpk/t)YoY(%;RHS)

Source:Companydata.

40%

35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

Rpbn

2021E

OLD

2022E

2023E

2021A

NEW

2022E

2023E

2021A

Changes

2022E

2023E

Revenue

GrossProfit

EBIT

EBITDA

PreTaxProfit

NetProfit

Margin(%)

GrossMargin

EBITMargin

EBITDAMargin

PBTMargin

NetMargin

14,837

16,323

17,185

14,772

15,755

16,851

0%

-3%

-2%

4,676

5,375

6,041

5,126

4,921

5,814

10%

-8%

-4%

1,705

2,061

2,531

2,071

1,711

2,418

21%

-17%

-4%

3,190

3,546

4,025

3,324

3,052

3,747

4%

-14%

-7%

2,009

2,342

2,785

2,277

1,937

2,636

13%

-17%

-5%

1,617

1,885

2,242

1,788

1,559

2,122

11%

-17%

-5%

32%

33%

35%

35%

31%

35%

11%

13%

15%

14%

11%

14%

21%

22%

23%

23%

19%

22%

14%

14%

16%

15%

12%

16%

11%

12%

13%

12%

10%

13%

Source:Companydata,J.P.Morganestimates.

Table2:INTPkeyassumptions

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22E

FY23E

Domesticcementvolume(mnton)Growth(YoY%)

DomesticcementASP(Rp000's/t)Growth(YoY%)

Grossprofitperton(Rpk/t)

EBITDAperton(Rpk/t)

Utilizationrate

Marketshare

19.0

18.8

16.9

17.6

17.9

18.6

7%

-1%

-10%

4%

2%

4%

792

841

829

822

871

896

-1.7%

6.1%

-1.4%

-0.8%

5.9%

2.8%

247

290

299

292

275

312

133

164

192

189

170

201

71%

76%

69%

71%

72%

75%

27%

27%

27%

27%

26%

26%

Source:Companydata,J.P.Morganestimates.

6

Volume,thousandtons

Java

Ex-Java

Total

711

275

986

72%

28%

25%

34%

14%-1%10%

3%2%3%

-3%-6%-4%

4,284

1,737

6,021

71%29%26%34%

688

271

961

72%28%22%30%

622

278

899

69%31%24%34%

Volumeproportion

Java

Ex-Java

Domesticmarketshare-IndonesiaDomesticmarketshare-Java

Industry

Volume,thousandtons

Java

Ex-Java

Total

Bag

Bulk

Volumeproportion(%)

Java

Ex-Java

Bag

Bulk

2,116

1,845

3,961

3,025

936

53%

47%

76%

24%

-8%-13%-11%-6%-23%

15%

0%

7%

1%

33%

1%3%2%-3%21%

2,295

2,132

4,427

3,206

1,221

52%48%72%28%

12,454

10,994

23,449

18,417

5,032

53%

47%

79%

21%

1,844

1,841

3,685

2,983

702

50%50%81%19%

Source:Companydata,J.P.Morgan.

HenryWibowo

(622-1)52918526

henry.wibowo@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

22June2022

Table3:SMGRearningsrevision

Rpbn

OLD

2022E

2023E

NEW

2022E

2023E

Changes2022E2023E

RevenueGrossProfitEBITEBITDAPreTaxProfit

NetProfit

Margin(%)

GrossMarginEBITMarginEBITDAMarginPBTMarginNetMargin

36,961

38,149

36,213

38,439

-2%

1%

10,522

11,306

10,952

11,877

4%

5%

4,431

5,003

5,047

5,712

14%

14%

7,747

8,241

8,364

8,951

8%

9%

3,325

4,133

3,946

4,852

19%

17%

2,344

3,024

2,791

3,419

19%

13%

28%

30%

30%

31%

12%

13%

14%

15%

21%

22%

23%

23%

9%

11%

11%

13%

6%

8%

8%

9%

Source:Companydata,J.P.Morganestimates.

Table4:SMGRkeyassumptions

FY18

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22E

FY23E

Domesticcementvolume

Growth(YoY%)

DomesticcementASP

Growth(YoY%)

Grossprofitperton(Rpk/t)

EBITDAperton(Rpk/t)

Utilizationrate

Marketshare

27.4

36.4

32.1

32.2

32.8

34.1

1%

33%

-12%

0%

2%

4%

883

875

867

851

913

937

3.3%

-0.9%

-1.0%

-1.8%

6.4%

2.4%

281

298

292

271

276

288

196

204

228

203

211

217

87%

80%

75%

76%

74%

77%

39%

52%

51%

49%

48%

47%

Source:Companydata,J.P.Morganestimates.

Table5:IndustryandINTP5M22salesvolume

May-22

May-21

Apr-22

5M21

5M22

MoM

YoY

YoY

Indocement

4,145

1,625

5,770

72%

28%

24%

33%

12,638

11,285

23,922

17,845

6,078

53%

47%

75%

25%

7

HenryWibowo

(622-1)52918526

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AsiaPacificEquityResearch

22June2022

Table6:SMGR5M22salesvolume

Inthousandtons

May-21

Apr-22

May-22

MoM%

YoY%

5M21

5M22

YoY%

Indonesia-domestic

Indonesia-exports

TotalIndonesia

Vietnam-domestic

Vietnam-export

TotalVietnam

TotalSIG

Domesticmarketshare

1,832

2,173

1,858

-14.5%

1.4%

11,572

11,481

-0.8%

687

408

214

-47.5%

-68.8%

3,344

1,871

-44.0%

2,519

2,580

2,072

-19.7%

-17.8%

14,916

13,352

-10.5%

98

99

96

-2.4%

-2.0%

493

466

-5.5%

86

121

31

-74.7%

-64.6%

472

311

-34.1%

185

219

127

-42.2%

-31.3%

965

777

-19.5%

2,704

2,800

2,199

-21.5%

-18.7%

15,881

14,129

-11.0%

50%

49%

47%

49%

48%

Source:Companydata,J.P.Morgan.

8

Indonesia

HeadofIndonesiaResearch&

Strategy

HenryWibowoAC

(622-1)52918526

henry.wibowo@

BloombergJPMAHWIBOWO<GO>

PTJ.P.MorganSekuritasIndonesia

Changes

Prev

Cur

Adj.EPS-22E(Rp)

512.14

423.52

Adj.EPS-23E(Rp)

609.10

576.48

Key(FYEDec)

HenryWibowo

(622-1)52918526

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AsiaPacificEquityResearch

22June2022

Overweight

INTP.JK,INTPIJ

Price(21Jun22):Rp9,400

▼PriceTarget(Dec-22):Rp11,500

Prior(Dec-22):Rp15,500

IndocementTunggalPrakarsa

Attractiverisk/reward;StayOW

WestayOWonINTPdespiteexpectationsofweak2Q22earnings.TheweakearningsoutlookisdrivenmainlybyINTP’slackofexposuretoDMOcoalsupplyin1H22.Thesharepriceisdown22%YTD,whileconsensusearningshavebeenreviseddownbyonly11%overthesameperiod,whichsuggeststhatthemarketisalreadysomewhatpricinginweak2Q22results.Hence,wethinkfurtherdownsideislimitedatthisjuncture.WebelieveanyincrementalpositivedevelopmentonDMOcoalprocurementwilldriveupsidetotheshareprice,whiletherationalizingcompetitivelandscapeandstrongervolumegrowthin2H22shouldalsohelp.INTPhasunderperformedSMGRby21%inthepast3M;positivedevelopmentsonDMOcoalprocurementcouldjustifyacatch-upplayinthenearterm,inourview.

WecutourTPby26%toRp11,500(fromRp15,500)aswelowerour2022/23EEBITDAandNPATestimatesby14%/7%and17%/5%,respectively,andweassignalowermultipleof12xEBITDA(vs.14xpreviously)toaccountforearningsgrowthduetoahighercostenvironment.OurTPimplies22%upside.

StyleExposure

Sourcesfor:StyleExposure–J.P.MorganQuantitativeand

DerivativesStrategy;allothertablesarecompanydataand

J.P.Morganestimates.

9

HenryWibowo

(622-1)52918526

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AsiaPacificEquityResearch

22June2022

PricePerformance

1m

3m

12m

YTD

-5.0%-6.9%

-19.7%-26.7%

-13.2%-30.6%

AbsRel

-11.5%

-12.8%

CompanyData

SharesO/S(mn)

52-weekrange(Rp)

Marketcap($bn)

Exchangerate

Freefloat(%)

3M-Avgdailyvol(mn)3M-Avgdailyval($mn)Volatility(90Day)

Index

3,68112,950-8,800 2.33 14,836.8049.0%

7.424.933JCI

BBGBUY|HOLD|SELL24|4|3

KeyMetrics(FYEDec)

RpinbillionsFY21AFY22EFY23E

FinancialEstimates

14,7723,3242,071 1,788485.84438.852,9621,620

4.1%22.5% 1.4%14.0%12.1%(1.0%)

21.5%NMNMNM7.5%

15,7553,052 1,711 1,559423.52451.732,9331,157

6.7% 19.4% (8.2%) 10.9% 9.9%(12.8%)

19.5%NMNMNM6.6%

Revenue

Adj.EBITDA

Adj.EBIT

Aincome

Adj.EPS

BBGEPS

Cashflowfromoperations

FCFF

MarginsandGrowth

16,8513,7472,4182,122576.48622.513,2671,793

RevenuegrowthEBITDAmarginEBITDAgrowthEBITmarginNetmarginAdj.EPSgrowth

Adj.taxrate

InterestcoverNetdebt/EquityNetdebt/EBITDAROCE

7.0%22.2%22.8%14.4%12.6%36.1%

Ratios

19.5%NMNMNM9.2%

SummaryInvestmentThesisandValuation

WeareOWonIndocementTunggalwithaDec-22PTofRp11,500.IndocementisIndonesia’ssecond-largestcementproducer,witha~25%marketshare.WhileINTPhasrelativelyunderperformedSMGRinthepast3MduetolackofDMOcoalsupply,webelievethemarkethasalreadyanticipatedweak2Q22results,whichshouldleavelimiteddownside.WethinkanypositivedevelopmentaroundDMOcoalprocurementshoulddriveupsidetosharepriceatthisjuncture,whilerationalizingcompetitionandstrongercementvolumein2H22shouldhelp.INTPhasanetcashbalancesheetandpays~5%dividendyield,whichisthehighestwithintheIndonesiaInfraspace.

Valuation

WederiveourDec-22PTofRp11,500usingEV/EBITDA,withatargetmultipleof12x2022EEBITDA.Themultipleissetat0.5SDbelowitsfive-yearmeanlevel.WebelieveINTPdeservesapremiumcomparedtoitspeerduetoitsnetcashbalancesheet,5%yield,andgoodCGunderHeidelbergCement.OurPTimplies2022E/23EP/Esof22x/16x.

PerformanceDrivers

ROE8.4%7.6%10.3%

Valuation

FCFFyield

4.7%

3.3%

5.2%

Dividendyield

5.4%

5.2%

4.5%

EV/Revenue

1.9

1.8

1.7

EV/EBITDA

8.6

9.5

7.7

Adj.P/E

19.3

22.2

16.3

Source:J.P.MorganQuantitativeandDerivativesStrategyforPerformanceDrivers;companydata,BloombergFinanceL.P.andJ.P.Morganestimatesforallothertables.Note:Pricehistorymaynotbecompleteorexact.

10

HenryWibowo

(622-1)52918526

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AsiaPacificEquityResearch

22June2022

InvestmentThesis,ValuationandRisks

IndocementTunggalPrakarsa(Overweight;PriceTarget:Rp11,500)

InvestmentThesis

WeareOWonIndocementTunggalwithaDec-22PTofRp11,500.IndocementisIndonesia’ssecond-largestcementproducer,witha~25%marketshare.WhileINTPhasrelativelyunderperformedSMGRinthepast3MduetolackofDMOcoalsupply,webelievethemarkethasalreadyanticipatedweak2Q22results,whichshouldleavelimiteddownside.WethinkanypositivedevelopmentaroundDMOcoalprocurementshoulddriveupsidetosharepriceatthisjuncture,whilerationalizingcompetitionandstrongercementvolumein2H22shouldhelp.INTPhasanetcashbalancesheetandpays~5%dividendyield,whichisthehighestwithintheIndonesiaInfraspace.

Valuation

WederiveourDec-22PTofRp11,500usingEV/EBITDA,withatargetmultipleof12x2022EEBITDA.Themultipleissetat0.5SDbelowitsfive-yearmeanlevel.WebelieveINTPdeservesapremiumcomparedtoitspeerduetoitsnetcashbalancesheet,5%yield,andgoodCGunderHeidelbergCement.OurPTimplies2022E/23EP/Esof22x/16x.

RiskstoRatingandPriceTarget

Downsideriskstoourratingandpricetargetinclude:(1)intensifyingpricewars;

(2)governmentinterventiononprice;(3)alossofmarketsharetonewplayers;and

(4)longer-than-expectedCOVID-19restrictionsduetorisingpandemiccases.

11

-

-

HenryWibowo

(622-1)52918526

henry.wibowo@

AsiaPacificEquityResearch

22June2022

IndocementTunggalPrakarsa:SummaryofFinancials

IncomeStatementFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ECashFlowStatementFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24E

3,728

1,402

302

(1,569)

(1,719)

12.1%

(2,113)

(2,659)

0

390

46

1,737

(15.7%)

3,267

1,328(183)

(1,318)

(1,318)

7.8%

(1,559)

(1,559)

0

0

390

1,793

54.9%

2,962

1,253

57

(1,007)

(1,198)

8.1%

(3,511)

(1,849)0

(225)

(1,556)

1,620

(6.7%)

2,933

1,341

33

(1,613)

(1,613)

10.2%

(1,564)

(1,788) 0224

(244)

1,157

(28.6%)

Revenue

COGS

Grossprofit

SG&A

Adj.EBITDA

D&A

Adj.EBIT

NetInterest

Adj.PBT

Tax

MinorityInterest

Adj.NetIncome

ReportedEPS

Adj.EPS

DPS

PayoutratioSharesoutstanding

-

14,18414,77215,75516,851-Cashflowfromoperatingactivities

-

(7,669)(8,393)(9,492)(9,709)-o/wDepreciation&amortization

-

5,1145,1264,9215,814-o/wChangesinworkingcapital

(3,154)(3,219)(3,211)(3,396)-

-

3,2783,3243,0523,747-Cashflowfrominvestingactivities

-

(1,402)(1,253)(1,341)(1,328)-o/wCapitalexpenditure

-

1,8762,0711,7112,418-as%ofsales

335182202194-

-

2,2262,2771,9372,636-Cashflowfromfinancingactivities

-

(419)(489)(378)(514)-o/wDividendspaid

-

0000-o/wSharesissued/(repurchased)

-

1,8061,7881,5592,122-o/wNetdebtissued/(repaid)

490.69485.84423.52576.48-Netchangeincash

490.69485.84423.52576.48-

-

Adj.Freecashflowtofirm

722.28503.30486.79424.35-y/yGrowth147.2%103.6%114.9%73.6%-

3,6813,6813,6813,681-

BalanceSheetFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24ERatioAnalysisFY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24E

CashandcashequivalentsAccountsreceivable

Inventories

Othercurrentassets

Currentassets

PP&E

LTinvestments

Othernoncurrentassets

Totalassets

ShorttermborrowingsPayables

Othershorttermliabilities

Currentliabilities

Long-termdebt

Otherlongtermliabilities

Totalliabilities

Shareholders'equity

Minorityinterests

Totalliabilities&equity

BVPS

36.1%23.1%13.2%12.7%

8.0%6.6%6.6%22.2% NMNM

0.5 1.2 NM13.9%18.8%

(11.0%)5.5%

34.7%22.5%14.0%12.1%

8.4%6.7%7.5%21.8% NMNM

0.61.2

NM250.8%21.5% 4.1%1.4%

31.2%19.4%10.9%9.9%

7.6%6.0%6.6%20.4% NMNM

0.61.3

NM(261.5%) 19.5% 6.7%(8.2%)

34.5%22.2%14.4%12.6%

10.3%8.1%9.2%20.2% NMNM

0.61.3

NM594.5%19.5% 7.0%22.8%

-

7,6986,1415,8976,287-Grossmargin

-

2,5852,5872,5902,770-EBITDAmargin

-

1,8242,2671,9291,965-EBITmargin

-

193341341341-Netprofitmargin

12,29911,33710,75711,364-

-

14,39714,34214,61514,605-ROE

-

96135135135-ROA

-

552322322322-ROCE

-

27,34526,13625,82926,426-SG&A/Sales

-

Netdebt/Equity

-

254162477484-Netdebt/EBITDA

1,5802,0831,7811,814-

-

1.3

2,3822,4022,4022,402-Sales/Assets(x)

4,2164,6474,6604,700-Assets/Equity(x)

-

2471142316-Interestcover(x)

-

706755755755-Operatingleverage

-

5,1685,5155,4375,471-Taxrate

-

22,17620,62120,39220,955-Revenuey/yGrowth

-

0000-EBITDAy/yGrowth

-EPS

Growth

(1.6%)(1.0%)(12.8%)36.1%

27,345

26,136

25,829

26,426

-

y/y

FY20AFY21AFY22EFY23EFY24E

-Valuation

6,024.145,601.655,539.335,692.29

y/yGrowth

Netdebt/(cash)

-P/E(x) P/BV(x)

-EV/EBITDA(x)DividendYield

(3.9%)

(7,197)

(7.0%)

(5,866)

(1.1%)

(5,397)

19.2 1.6 8.47.7%

19.3 1.7 8.65.4%

22.2 1.7 9.55.2%

16.3 1.7 7.74.5%

-

2.8%

-

-

(5,787)

-

Source:CompanyreportsandJ.P.Morganestimates.

Note:Rpinbillions(exceptper-sharedata).FiscalyearendsDec.o/w-outofwhich