” 2.3.4交通分配結(jié)果及路網(wǎng)問題分析 23課程設(shè)計(jì)報(bào)告的主要內(nèi)容和要求 24設(shè)計(jì)相關(guān)要求 24.1相關(guān)要求 24.2注意事項(xiàng) 25時(shí)間安排及成績(jī)?cè)u(píng)定 2 8 8 3評(píng)價(jià)分析 20 撲關(guān)系及屬性數(shù)據(jù)表；人口增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)：采用回歸法預(yù)測(cè)未來年的人口預(yù)測(cè)量。2.3.1發(fā)生和吸引交通量預(yù)測(cè)計(jì)算各個(gè)小區(qū)的發(fā)生交通量與吸引交通量，各小區(qū)的內(nèi)內(nèi)交通量都認(rèn)為是03.2分布交通量計(jì)算特律模型和重力模型計(jì)算ijcy(a=0.25,=1.25,y=1.85)ijcij從制作的路網(wǎng)中獲得。②采用非平衡分配模型中的一種進(jìn)行交通分配。2.3.4交通量分配結(jié)果及路網(wǎng)問題分析課程設(shè)計(jì)報(bào)告的主要內(nèi)容和要求設(shè)計(jì)相關(guān)要求相關(guān)要求：(1)依據(jù)分組情況合理分工，各組均獨(dú)立、按時(shí)、按質(zhì)、按量完成本課程(2)充分理解并掌握相關(guān)理論，熟悉設(shè)計(jì)流程。(3)完成設(shè)計(jì)項(xiàng)目后，將設(shè)計(jì)指導(dǎo)書、任務(wù)書、計(jì)算書按要求裝訂成冊(cè)。4.2注意事項(xiàng)(1)本課程設(shè)計(jì)要求學(xué)生依據(jù)分組情況合理分工，各組均獨(dú)立自主完成，。成績(jī)?cè)u(píng)定工作內(nèi)容工作內(nèi)容時(shí)間路網(wǎng)構(gòu)造0.5天冊(cè)11出勤及平時(shí)表現(xiàn)(40%)考核項(xiàng)目?jī)?yōu)出勤情況(10%)基礎(chǔ)知識(shí)掌握情況(10%)獨(dú)立解決問題能力(10%)平時(shí)表現(xiàn)(10%)出勤及平時(shí)表現(xiàn)成績(jī)2設(shè)計(jì)成果(60%)良成績(jī)分布中及考核項(xiàng)目計(jì)算書質(zhì)量(20%)設(shè)計(jì)步驟及計(jì)算結(jié)果(30%)答辯情況(10%)設(shè)計(jì)成果成績(jī)優(yōu)良成績(jī)分布中及指導(dǎo)教師評(píng)語6資料況：數(shù)據(jù)資料2010387.2524.7826.82006943.8932.1913.9997.1201020108073123451238428632224445合計(jì)2154293323282359出行方式出行方式步行自行車公交車出租車單位班車單位小汽車私家車在四階段中，第一階段(交通發(fā)生與吸引預(yù)測(cè))用的算法是原單位法；第二階段 測(cè))運(yùn)用了增量分配法?？陬A(yù)測(cè)人口數(shù)4073人口數(shù)919人口數(shù)90832人口數(shù)6310人口數(shù)99356年份2001020304050607080910111213141516．2各小區(qū)人口線形回歸圖1200100080060040020002000y=43.648x-86706R2=0.9386小區(qū)1人口數(shù)線性(小區(qū)1人口數(shù))2002200420062008201020121200100080060040020002000y=56.182x-111850R2=0.9828小區(qū)2人口數(shù)線性(小區(qū)2人口數(shù))2002200420062008201020121200100080060040020002000y=50.006x-99475R2=0.9488小區(qū)3人口數(shù)對(duì)數(shù)(小區(qū)3人口數(shù))線性(小區(qū)3人口數(shù))200220042006200820102012y=50.327x-100118R2=0.9596小區(qū)4人口數(shù)線性(小區(qū)4人口數(shù))20022004200620082010201212001000800600400200020001200100080060040020002000y=50.467x-100385R2=0.9816小區(qū)5人口數(shù)線性(小區(qū)5人口數(shù))2002200420062008201020122.4四階段預(yù)測(cè)網(wǎng)規(guī)劃道道路網(wǎng)絡(luò)的拓?fù)潢P(guān)系及屬性數(shù)據(jù)通行能力3753753753403753403753403403403753753753400.290.450.270.270.310.270.430.330.270.320.270.27車道數(shù)66646464446664路段號(hào)abqdponcgkefhmt(min)0.4350.6750.4050.4050.4650.4050.6450.4950.4050.480.4050.405點(diǎn)8926354968978qq3p5o4nma1c37f82d5g2k41b6初期路網(wǎng)規(guī)劃圖2.4.1第一階段：交通發(fā)生與吸引預(yù)測(cè)(原單位法)46736.1合計(jì)2245在112345合計(jì)3753291291562408393251359狀各區(qū)發(fā)生與吸引的原單位(單位：次/日?人)222.90632.30812.13752.3384合計(jì)1.5551.8282.1341.7243.41012345合計(jì)行發(fā)生與吸引交通量(單位：次/日?人)112752.944924105.70742009.85453171.37533086.320合計(jì)2003.4222582.8942853.8492311.9434625.48612345合計(jì)調(diào)整后的OD表(單位：次/日?人)ODOD12345未來合計(jì)12002.09322581.18132851.95642310.41054622.419未來合計(jì)2614.96433899.9240922931.631909.1183012.422314368.0602.4.2第二階段：交通分布預(yù)測(cè)(底特律法)OD表(單位：次/日?人)12345合計(jì)預(yù)測(cè)值G0=GF0FO1F0FO2F0FO3F0FO4F0FO512956150.786=1.28=1.31=1.28=1.22=1.27240833237529324F0=1.21D1F0=1.33D2F0=1.26D3F0=1.26D4F0=1.28D55159合計(jì)24預(yù)測(cè)值028152104622增長(zhǎng)系第一次迭代計(jì)算OD表(單位：次/日?人)12345合計(jì)預(yù)測(cè)值增長(zhǎng)系數(shù)D193.782616.32153405.1460.90240.552890.11325794.99230.29249.79709.333036.29.992544.04718.55436.193911.694679.49393.48491.96計(jì)2017.902604.612846.972305.504593.39.38值0025818523104622長(zhǎng)o0.990.992.4.3第三階段：交通方式劃分預(yù)測(cè)地地區(qū)居民出行方式2單位小汽車2百分比(％)分擔(dān)人次單位班車私家車2公交車40.11行.6下面開始計(jì)算各小區(qū)之間、各種交通方式的分擔(dān)出行量(次/日?人)：OO行公交車單位班車單位小汽車私家車131.886.8246.32577293.7825.887.6172.00253283.9760.70412.5729.8465.8524.69452.966.9564.6127.825327.4169.99475.7034.405.9228.47OO行公交車單位班車單位小汽車私家車1544.0432.10218.1634.828.892718.5542.39288.1420.8445.993319.1868.23463.7433.544.0127.764436.1925.7427.9263.255291.5862.33423.6330.6467.6125.35OO行公交車單位班車單位小汽車私家車1405.1423.9025.939.7258.742260.9024.428.833240.5566.3996.466.98734.884285.4261.01414.6929.9966.1924.825317.2367.81460.9033.333.5627.59OO行公交車單位班車單位小汽車私家車143.679.3463.454.59022.942679.4940.09272.4843.4998.53352.666.5134.5827.674393.4823.2225.189.4457.055491.9629.0331.491.33OO行公交車單位班車單位小汽車私家車1794.99219.4246.90318.7923.0550.882290.3262.06421.8130.5067.3225.253230.2963.5692.356.68333.394249.7968.94936.225709.3341.85284.4420.5745.40接著將上述五個(gè)表的人的出行量轉(zhuǎn)換成車流交通量(以公交車乘坐40人、公交車單位班車單位小汽車私家車合計(jì)16.820.378.372.530.940.306.80360.70.2974.594.780.61.3026.03569.99086.00公交車單位班車單位小汽車私家車合計(jì)132.10.45896.5339.4473.80242.39202.308.6252.1097.47368.23.7083.84425.744.376.32331.6259.1762.33595公交車單位班車單位小汽車私家車合計(jì)123.904.06.874.8629.3754.962.590.610.880.190.734.428.2632.41.490.772.8932.63461.01.3174.98567.81883.33公交車單位班車單位小汽車私家車合計(jì)19.342.290.5121.46240.096.819.852.178.1549.2692.1732.770.612.2925.88423.22.94.714.7228.5353.38529.034.9313.9035.6766.73公交車單位班車單位小汽車私家車合計(jì)146.90972.549.5457.64262.0676.263.3140.74.7631.244.5020.80033.88541.85.278.5151.4396.222.4.4第四階段：交通分配預(yù)測(cè)(增量分配法)徑徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)6--5-20.6252.65834049204600.486經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)6--7徑路0.5800.9840.4850066--5--8340000徑徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)1--2-53400006--50.6453400.6460.661460.716--7-8-5340000徑路徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)a1--2-53400006--50.6453400.6460.661460.716--7-8-5340000徑徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)2--154240.60080.6000.6022--5--6340徑路徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)a2--1--6--7502--5--80.813400.8100.81060.812徑路徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)a2--3-4-9340002232--50.40534020.5856146061462--1-6-5340000徑路徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)a2--30.675375475695127.06395127.0632--5-9-4340047564.3252--5-9-10340000徑路徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)a徑路徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)a7--6-1-2592.82422.4668--5-234094.26694.26694.266徑路徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)a7--6-53400008--50.49534030.4960.525880.61徑路徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)a8--5-2-33400008--5-9-4340008--1050.9010820.924徑路徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)a5--2-1340085--60.64534080.6470.6746030.7935--8-7-6340徑路徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)a5--20.40523400.4369440.8959172.8895--6-1-2340000徑路徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)a5--6-734004676225--80.4953404676467693525--9-10340000徑路徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)a5--2-350005--9-40.8734000.870.870.8775--9-100.813400.8172580.9200.81徑路徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)a3--2-1542.49542.49542.4954--9-5-6340004.79010--9-5-6340047.4812334.48110--8-7-6.0950.090.090.09徑路徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)a3--20.675375477795547.17795547.1774--9-5-234000010--9-523400047774.362徑路徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)a3--20.675375477795547.17795547.1774--9-5-234000010--9-523400047774.362徑路徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)a3--2-5-83400074--9-5-8340076.357.3510--9-5-834076.04476.047.045徑路徑路經(jīng)過節(jié)點(diǎn)a3--2-53400004--90.40552240.4162240.41644480.5880.40534000.4052240.4552240.45道路交通量分配通量分配表徑路徑路分配交通量徑路分配交通量徑路分配交通量6--5-9-41-2--356--706--5-9-101--2-51466--5--802--106--5