可再生能源及儲(chǔ)能展望

RenewableandenergystorageoutlookBNEFSummitShanghai2021彭博新能源財(cái)經(jīng)上海峰會(huì)November30,2021Pre-2010sSource:BloombergNEFSource:BloombergNEFGlobalpowercapacitymix,20102010年全球發(fā)電裝機(jī)容量結(jié)構(gòu)Chinapowercapacitymix,20102010年中國發(fā)電裝機(jī)容量結(jié)構(gòu)2010年風(fēng)電光伏只占全球發(fā)電裝機(jī)總量5%

Renewablesonlymadeupabout5%ofthepowermixturein2010Source:BloombergNEF.如何使可再生能源具備價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力是行業(yè)主要關(guān)注點(diǎn)

Howtomakerenewablescostcompetitivewasthekeyfocus2010s2020sSource:BloombergNEF.Note:2021turbinepriceestimatebasedon2H2020WindTurbinePriceIndex.Theestimatesforbatteriesrepresentthecumulativetotalofbatterypacksmanufactured.GlobalPVmoduleprice全球光伏組件價(jià)格

Globalonshorewindturbineprice全球陸上風(fēng)機(jī)價(jià)格陸上風(fēng)機(jī)，光伏組件價(jià)格在過去十年價(jià)格快速下降

WindturbineandPVmodulepricesdroppedsubstantiallyoverthepastdecadeSource:BloombergNEF.Source:BloombergNEF.GlobalaveragePVmoduleefficiency全球光伏組件轉(zhuǎn)換平均效率Onshorewindcapacityfactor,globalaverage全球陸上風(fēng)電平均發(fā)電系數(shù)風(fēng)電發(fā)電系數(shù)，光伏組件轉(zhuǎn)換效率持續(xù)提升

WindturbinesandPVmodulessawcontinuousperformanceimprovementSource:BloombergNEF.Note:Themapshowsthenew-buildtechnologywiththelowestLCOEfornew-buildplantsineachcountrywhereBNEFhasdata.ThedollarnumbersdenotetheperMWhbenchmarklevelizedcostofthecheapesttechnology.AllLCOEsareinnominalterms.Calculationsexcludesubsidies,tax-creditorgridconnectioncosts.CCGTiscombined-cyclegasturbine.ForBloombergNEFclients,pleasesee1H2021LCOEUpdateformore(web|terminal).風(fēng)電,太陽能已成為大部分地區(qū)最經(jīng)濟(jì)的電力資源

RenewablesbecomethecheapestsourceofbulkgenerationinmanymarketsSource:BloombergNEF2020年全球可再生能源裝機(jī)容量占比已達(dá)到20%

Renewablesmadeupaboutone-fifthoftheglobalcapacityin2020Windandsolarhasmadeupabout20%

ofglobalgenerationcapacityby2020

風(fēng)電和光伏約占2020年全球發(fā)電裝機(jī)容量的20%2020s2030sSource:Governments,BloombergNEF.Note:UpdatedasofNovember2,2021.越來越多的國家政府將“碳中和”轉(zhuǎn)化為國家戰(zhàn)略

Net-zerotargetsarebecomingmorecommonLegislatedGovernmentpositionbutnotlegislatedInlegislativeprocessUnderdiscussionNotargetSource:BloombergNEF.Note:Wepresentsolarmid-scenarioforecastasofQ32021,wind(includingbothonshoreandoffshore)forecastasof1H2021.GlobalPVinstallationsforecast全球光伏裝機(jī)容量預(yù)期Globalwindinstallationsforecast全球風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量預(yù)期光伏，風(fēng)電將在下個(gè)十年維持高速增長

GlobalPVandwindinstallationswillremainstrongSource:BloombergNEF.Note:Wepresentsolarmid-scenarioforecastasofQ32021,wind(includingbothonshoreandoffshore)forecastasof1H2021.可再生能源的項(xiàng)目類型日益豐富

RenewableprojecttypesbecomemorediversifiedGlobalPVinstallationsforecast全球光伏裝機(jī)容量預(yù)期Globalwindinstallationsforecast全球風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量預(yù)期Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Wepresentsolarmid-scenarioforecastasofQ32021,wind(includingbothonshoreandoffshore)forecastasof1H2021.中國持續(xù)領(lǐng)跑全球可再生能源裝機(jī)

ChinawillcontinuetoleadtheglobalrenewableinstallationsGlobalPVinstallationsforecast全球光伏裝機(jī)容量預(yù)期Globalwindinstallationsforecast全球風(fēng)電裝機(jī)容量預(yù)期California'sworseningduckcurve加州的“鴨子曲線”趨勢(shì)不斷加劇RollingbackoutsinTexas德克薩斯州大停電Germany’snegativepowerprices德國越發(fā)頻繁的負(fù)電價(jià)高比例可再生能源電力系統(tǒng)將面臨多重挑戰(zhàn)

Renewables-ledpowersystemsmayfacebigchallengesSource:BloombergNEF.CAISO.Note:

thischartrepresentsCAISO’sAugustnetload.Source:BloombergNEF,Ercot.Note:theeventoccurredinFebruary2021.Source:BloombergNEF.Note:abovechartrepresentGermany’sreal-timepowermarketSource:FERC,BloombergNEF.對(duì)可再生能源的關(guān)注從成本到價(jià)值轉(zhuǎn)變

FocusonrenewablesshiftsfromcoststovalueU.S.renewablePPAs,byoperationyear($/MWh)美國可再生能源購電協(xié)議價(jià)格，按投產(chǎn)年份排序（美元/每兆瓦時(shí)）Source:FERC,BloombergNEF.可再生能源配儲(chǔ)能項(xiàng)目在全球范圍內(nèi)普及

PairingrenewableswithstorageassetsbecomingmorecommonPairingrenewableswithstorageassetscanmakethemmoredispatchableandcontrollable.Thiscanimproverenewables’value.儲(chǔ)能設(shè)備是可再生能源具有一定的可調(diào)度性及可控性，提升可再生能源對(duì)于電力采購方的價(jià)值U.S.renewablePPAs,byoperationyear($/MWh)美國可再生能源購電協(xié)議價(jià)格，按投產(chǎn)年份排序（美元/每兆瓦時(shí)）Source:BloombergNEF.Note:ForBloombergNEFclients,pleasesee2020EnergyStorageCostSurvey(web|terminal)fordetails.鋰電池價(jià)格在過去十年內(nèi)下降了89%

Lithium-ionbatterypriceshavefallenby89%inthelastdecadeGloballithium-ionbatterypricesurveyresults:volume-weightedaverage,allsectors全球鋰離子電池價(jià)格調(diào)研：各領(lǐng)域電池容量加權(quán)平均Source:BloombergNEF.Note:Weconsideralargeprojecttobeover100MWh.Excludeswarrantycosts,whichareoftenpaidannuallyratherthanaspartoftheinitialcapitalexpenditure.Thesecostsdonotexplicitlyincludeanytaxes,althoughduetoalackoftransparencyinthemarket,somemaybeunknowinglyincluded.Thisisforabrownfielddevelopmentsoexcludesgridconnectioncostsandincludesa5%EPCmargin.Itdoesnotincludesalvagecostsorprojectaugmentation.2019figuresadjustedforinflationtoconverttoreal2020$.

Globalcapitalcostsforafullyinstalledlargefour-hourdurationACenergystoragesystematbeginningoflife,onausablebasis四小時(shí)儲(chǔ)能系統(tǒng)的全項(xiàng)目成本，基于可用容量儲(chǔ)能系統(tǒng)成本也持續(xù)下降EnergystoragepricesdeclineaswellSource:BloombergNEF.

Note:energystorage(excludingpumpedhydro)forecastupdatedonNovember15,2021.ForBloombergNEFclients,seeGlobalEnergyStorageOutlook2021(web|terminal)formore.Basedonpoweroutput基于功率容量Basedonenergyoutput基于能量容量全球儲(chǔ)能市場(chǎng)將在未來十年實(shí)現(xiàn)高速增長

Globalenergystoragemarketsettoboomin2020sSource:BloombergNEF.Note:energystorage(excludingpumpedhydro)forecastupdatedonNovember15,2021.ForBloombergNEFclients,seeGlobalEnergyStorageOutlook2021(web|terminal)formore.Basedonpoweroutput基于功率容量Basedonenergyoutput基于能量容量能量時(shí)移將主導(dǎo)未來十年儲(chǔ)能裝機(jī)

EnergyshiftingapplicationwilldominatethemarketSource:BloombergNEF.Note:energystorage(excludingpumpedhydro)forecastupdatedonNovember15,2021.ForBloombergNEFclients,seeGlobalEnergyStorageOutlook2021(web|terminal)formore.Basedonpoweroutput基于功率容量Basedonenergyoutput基于能量容量美國,中國將是儲(chǔ)能裝機(jī)主要市場(chǎng)

TheUSandChinawillleadthefuturestoragedeploymentSource:BloombergNEF技術(shù)與制度創(chuàng)新是構(gòu)建高比例可再生能源電力系統(tǒng)的基石

Continuoustechnologyinnovationand

market

designevolutionwillberequired

GreatercontrolofrenewablesEnergystorageNetwork&grid-sideflexibilityDemand-sidecontrolMarketdesignandoperationFlexibleconventionalgeneratorsCheap,reliablepowerLow-carbonpowerZerocarbonpowerLowfootpri