fc

PVPS

Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach

Snapshotof

GlobalPVMarkets

2023

ReportIEA-PVPST1-44:2023

Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach–2023SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets

WhatisIEAPVPSTCP?

TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),foundedin1974,isanautonomousbodywithintheframeworkoftheOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD).TheTechnologyCollaborationProgramme(TCP)wascreatedwithabeliefthatthefutureofenergysecurityandsustainabilitystartswithglobalcollaboration.Theprogrammeismadeupof6000expertsacrossgovernment,academia,andindustrydedicatedtoadvancingcommonresearchandtheapplicationofspecificenergytechnologies.

TheIEAPhotovoltaicPowerSystemsProgramme(IEAPVPS)isoneoftheTCPswithintheIEAandwasestablishedin1993.Themissionoftheprogrammeisto“enhancetheinternationalcollaborativeeffortswhichfacilitatetheroleofphotovoltaicsolarenergyasacornerstoneinthetransitiontosustainableenergysystems.”Inordertoachievethis,theProgramme’sparticipantshaveundertakenavarietyofjointresearchprojectsinPVpowersystemsapplications.TheoverallprogrammeisheadedbyanExecutiveCommittee,comprisedofonedelegatefromeachcountryororganisationmember,whichdesignatesdistinct‘Tasks,’thatmayberesearchprojectsoractivityareas.

TheIEAPVPSparticipatingcountriesareAustralia,Austria,Canada,Chile,China,Denmark,Finland,France,Germany,Israel,Italy,Japan,Korea,Malaysia,Morocco,theNetherlands,Norway,Portugal,SouthAfrica,Spain,Sweden,Switzerland,Thailand,Turkey,andtheUnitedStatesofAmerica.TheEuropeanCommission,SolarPowerEurope,theSmartElectricPowerAlliance,theSolarEnergyIndustriesAssociation,theSolarEnergyResearchInstituteofSingaporeandEnercitySAarealsomembers.

Visitusat:

WhatisIEAPVPSTask1?

TheobjectiveofTask1oftheIEAPhotovoltaicPowerSystemsProgrammeispromotingandfacilitatingtheexchangeanddisseminationofinformationonthetechnical,economic,environmentalandsocialaspectsofPVpowersystems.Task1activitiessupportthebroaderPVPSobjectives:tocontributetocostreductionofPVpowerapplications,toincreaseawarenessofthepotentialandvalueofPVpowersystems,tofostertheremovalofbothtechnicalandnon-technicalbarriersandtoenhancetechnologyco-operation.

Authors

Data:IEAPVPSReportingCountries,BecquerelInstitute(BE).Forthenon-IEAPVPScountries:IzumiKaizuka(RTSCorporation),ArnulfJ?ger-Waldau(EU-JRC),JoseDonoso(UNEF).

Analysis:Ga?tanMasson,ElinaBosch,AdrienVanRechem,Melodiedel’Epine(BecquerelInstitute)

Editor:Ga?tanMasson,IEAPVPSTask1Manager.

Design:IEAPVPS

DISCLAIMER

TheIEAPVPSTCPisorganisedundertheauspicesoftheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA)butisfunctionallyandlegallyautonomous.Views,findingsandpublicationsoftheIEAPVPSTCPdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsorpoliciesoftheIEASecretariatoritsindividualmembercountriesDatafornon-IEAPVPScountriesareprovidedbyofficialcontactsorexpertsintherelevantcountries.Dataarevalidatthedateofpublicationandshouldbeconsideredasestimatesinseveralcountriesduetothepublicationdate.

COVERPICTURE

4.6MWPVsystemonanoldindustrialsiteatRetzwiller(France)imagecredits:TRYBAENERGY.

ISBN978-3-907281-43-7:2023SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets

INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY

PHOTOVOLTAICPOWERSYSTEMSPROGRAMME

IEAPVPS

Task1

StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach

ReportIEA-PVPST1-44:2023

April2023

ISBN978-3-907281-43-7

Task1StrategicPVAnalysisandOutreach–2023SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets

3

TABLEOFCONTENTS

TableofContents 3

ExecutiveSummary 4

1SnapshotoftheGlobalPVMarketin2022 6

1.1EvolutionofAnnualInstallations 6

1.2ImpactofInternationalTradeDisruptionsandtheUkraineWar 7

1.3TheTopMarketsin2022 8

2MarketSegmentation 9

3CumulativeInstalledCapacityintheWorld 10

4EvolutionofRegionalPVInstallations 10

5LimitsofReportingConventions 12

5.1Decommissioning,RepoweringandRecycling 12

5.2ACorDCNumbers? 13

6ElectricityProductionfromPV 13

7Policy&MarketsTrends 14

7.1PolicyTrends 14

7.2CompetitiveTenders&MerchantPV 15

7.3ProsumersPolicies 15

7.4GridAccessPolicies 16

7.5LocalManufacturingPolicies 16

8PVintheBroaderEnergyTransition 17

8.1PVandOtherRenewableEnergyEvolutions 17

8.2ImpactofPVDevelopmentonCO2Emissions 18

8.3PVFosteringDevelopmentofaCleanerEnergySystem 19

4

EXECUTIVESUMMARY

TheglobalPVbaseonceagaingrewsignificantlyin2022,reaching1185GW(≈1,2TW)ofcumulativecapacityaccordingtopreliminarymarketdata,bothdespiteandbecauseofpost-covidpriceshikesandEuropeangeo-politicalstrife.With240GWofnewsystemsinstalledandcommissioned,andnearlyadozencountrieswithpenetrationratesover10%,(over19%forSpain!),PVhasdemonstratedthatitisaserious,major,long-termcontributortocost

competitiveelectricitygenerationandemissionsreductionsoftheenergysector.

Majortrendsinclude:

?TheChinesemarketcontinuestodominatebothnewandcumulativecapacityandadded106GW

1

DCor44%ofnewcapacitytoreach414,5GWofcumulativecapacity,morethandoublethatinEurope.Thisstronggrowthfollowsthatofpreviousyears-54,9GWin2021and48,2GWin2020,andevenlybalancedbetweencentralisedanddistributedsystems.

?Europedemonstratedcontinuedstronggrowthwith39GWinstalled,ledbySpain(8,1GW),Germany(7,5GW),Poland(4,9GW)andtheNetherlands(3,9GW).HighelectricitymarketpriceshavereinforcedthecompetitivityofPVandseveralcountrieshaveactedpoliciestofurtheracceleratePVinlinewithEUandnationalenergysovereigntyengagements–whilstothersareenactingpoliciestoreduceinjectionsbecauseofgridcongestion.

?TheAmericanmarketcontractedto18,6GWunderthecombinedinfluenceoftradeissuesandgridconnectionbacklogs,whilstBrazilinstalledahigh9,9GW,nearlydoublingthepreviousyear’snewcapacity.

?Indiaonceagainshowedstronggrowthwith18,1GW,predominantlyincentralisedsystems,andaPVpenetrationofnearly10%.StrongvolumesfromAustralia(3,9GWdespitesupplychainissues),andKorearoundouttheregionalmarket.

?Japanremainedsteadyat6,5GW,thesameasin2021.

Ninecountriesnowhavepenetrationratesover10%withSpain,GreeceandChileabove17%,andwhilstgridcongestionhasbecomeanissue,policymeasures,technicalsolutionsandstoragearealreadyprovidingworkablesolutionstoenhancePVpenetration.Individualmarketsremainsensitivetopolicysupportdespitecompetitivityacrossmostmarketsegmentsinmanycountries,howeverpolicysupportismovingtoindirectmeasuressuchasacceleratedpermittingorfacilitatingprosumermodelsormanaginggridcongestion.IncreasingconcernsabouttheconcentrationoftheupstreamsupplychaininChinahasledtoinitiativesandpolicysupportforlocalmanufacturing.

PVplayedanimportantroleinthereductionoftheCO2emissionsfromelectricityin2022,withtwo-thirdsofnewrenewablecapacityinstalledin2022,generatingover50%ofgenerationfromnewrenewablecapacityandavoidingapproximately1399MtofannualCO2emissions,up30%from2021.Thisrepresentsaround10%ofthetotalelectricityandheatsector

emissionsand4%ofallenergyemissions.ThiscontinuedpositioningPVasoneofthekeyexistinganddevelopingsolutionstofightclimatechangehereandnow.

1AllcapacitydatainthisreportisDC,unlessspecifiedotherwise.Forsomecountries,thismeanspublishingdifferentvaluestoofficialdata–forexample,China’sNationalEnergyAdministration(NEA)publishesinACandPVPSappliesaconversionratiofromACtoDC.Seesection5formoreinformation.

5

6

77

1SNAPSHOTOFTHEGLOBALPVMARKETIN2022

IEAPVPShasdistinguisheditselfthroughouttheyearsbyproducingunbiasedreportsonthedevelopmentofPVallovertheworld,basedoninformationfromofficialgovernmentbodiesandreliableindustrysources.This11theditionofthe“SnapshotofGlobalPVMarkets”aimsatprovidingpreliminaryinformationonhowthePVmarketdevelopedin2022.The28theditionofthePVPScomplete“TrendsinPhotovoltaicApplications”reportwillbepublishedinQ42023.

1.1EvolutionofAnnualInstallations

Itappearsthat1185GWrepresentstheminimuminstalledcumulativecapacitybytheendof2022,andatleast240GWofPVsystemshavebeencommissionedintheworldlastyear.IEAPVPScountries

2

,forwhomthereisafirmlevelofcertaintyinthedata,represented953GW(or80%)ofcumulativecapacityand184GW(77%)ofannualinstallations.

In2022,atleast23countriesinstalledmorethan1GW.

Sixteencountries(notincludingtheEU)nowhavemorethan10GWoftotalcumulativecapacity,fivehavemorethan40GW.Chinaalonerepresented414,5GWfollowedbytheEuropeanUnion(asEU27),whichledrankingsuntil2015,butnowrankssecond(209,3GW),theUSAranksthird(142GW)andJapanfourth(85GW).

GWpFIGURE1:EVOLUTIONOFANNUALPVINSTALLATIONS

300

250240

200

150

100

50

0

175

145

111

103104

31

30

3840

50

0000111268

17

NonIEAPVPSCountriesIEAPVPSCountriesJapanUSAEuropeanUnionChina

Source:IEAPVPS

Withcontinueddynamicgrowth,Chinaremainsthemajorregionalmarketin2022withover45%ofnewcapacity,amarketsharenotseensince2018;stronggrowthinEuropeandtoalesserextenttheUSAandIndiaaccountforanother30%.Figure2belowillustratesthechangingdynamicsoftheglobalPVmarket,andtheinfluenceoftheChinesePVmarket,

2Forthepurposeofthisreport,IEAPVPScountriesarethosethatareeithermemberintheirownrightorthroughtheadhesionoftheEC.

7

GWp

butalsothefastpaceofgrowthinIndiaandemergingcountries.Japan,onceaprincipalmarketmaintainsasteadyrhythmofnewprojectsbutwithnomarketaccelerationaselsewhere.

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

1.2

FIGURE2:2018-2022GROWTHPERREGION

Othercountries

OtherIEAPVPScountries

IndiaJapan

USA

EuropeanUnion

106.0

China

48

55

38.727

44

8

30

17

12

20

20

9

27

7

13

19

7

18

11

7

11

15

8

7

10

14

20

4

11

33

17

30

38

14

20182019202020212022

Source:IEAPVPS

ImpactofInternationalTradeDisruptionsandtheUkraineWar

Afterthreeyearsitisstilldifficulttopreciselyquantifytheimpactsofthepandemic.Oftheprincipalmarkets,onlyIndiashowedacontractionin2020,andallotherprincipalmarketsshowedgrowththrough2020to2022despitesignificantdisruptiontothesupplychainandtradewithincreasesinpolysilicon,glass,aluminium,steel,andfreightcosts,andhencemoduleandsystemcosts.Inparallel,sinceearly2022thepoliticaltensionsinEuropeandresultingreducedgasacquisitionshaveresultedinmuchhigherwholesaleanddomesticelectricityprices,notjustinEuropebutacrossarangeofothercountriesasfarasAustralia.

Theincreaseincosts,especiallyin2022,donotseemtohaveslowedgrowthinPVmarketsapartfrominIndia(whereredtapeconstraintscanexplainmuchofthedelays),althoughinsomecountriesespeciallyinEuropeverycompetitivemediumandlarge-scalesystemswerecancelledorputonholdastheirbusinessmodelscouldn’tholduptoincreasedcosts.Itishighlypossiblethatstablecostscouldhaveledtofastergrowthrates,although,consideringmanufacturingcapacity,theremayhavestillbeenpricesrisesonpolysilicon,evenifnewmanufacturingplanshadbeenlaunchedearlier.

Bymid-2022transportandmaterialcostsweremostlystabilising,andPVmarketscontinuedtogrow.Overall,itisdifficulttodistinguishifthisaccelerationeffectisstrongerorweakerthanthebrakingeffectofhigherPVhardwareprices.

8

TheenhancedPVcompetitivenessinmanycountrieshasbroughtgridparitytoamuch

largerrangeofsegmentsthaneven18monthsago,fromdomesticsystemstoutilityscalesystems,withimpactsonpolicyandfinancingmechanismsthatarediscussedinSection7.TheresiliencyofthePVmarketdespitethemajoreconomicandlogisticdisruptionsisremarkableandshowsthepotentialofthetechnologytolimiteconomicdownturnsandsocialdamagebroughtonbyregionalorworldwideupheaval.GreenrecoveryplansandbetterregulationscouldpropelthePVindustryfarbeyondthecurrentinstallationtrendstomeettheParisClimateAgreement.

1.3TheTopMarketsin2022

TheChinesemarketgrewagainataremarkablerateandinstalled106GWin2022(upfrom55GWin2021),or44%oftheglobalmarket.With38,9GWofannualinstallationstheEuropeanUnionrankedsecondfollowedbytheUSAwhereanestimated18,6GWwereinstalled,amarkethitbytradedisputesandgridconnectionbacklogs,followedbyIndiawithanincreasedmarketof18,1GW.Brazilcomesinfourthwithanestimated9,9GW,themostdynamicmarketinLatinAmerica.

Note:TheEuropeanUniongrouped27Europeancountriesin2022,outofwhichGermany,Spain,France,theNetherlandsandItalyalsoappearintheTopTen,eitherfortheinstalledcapacityortheannualinstallations.TheEuropeanCommissionisamemberofIEA-PVPSthroughitsJointResearchCentre(EU-JRC).

Source:IEAPVPS

ToreachtheTopTenfornewcapacityin2022,countriesneededtoinstallatleast3GWofPVsystems(comparedto1,5GWin2018).KoreaandFrancegavewaytoPolandandtheNetherlandsdespitereasonableperformance.TheTopTenoftotalcumulativeinstalledcapacitiesshowsmoreinertiaduetopastlevelsofinstallations:FranceexitedtheTopTenforcumulativeinstalledcapacityin2022andwasreplacedbyItalythatisnowbackintheTopTen.Thereremainsasignificantgapbetweenthefirstfiveandthenextfive;Australia,Spain,Italy,KoreaandBrazilhaveverysimilarcumulativecapacitiesofbetween20GWand30GW,underhalfasmuchasnumberfive,Germany.

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2MARKETSEGMENTATION

Preliminarydataindicatesthatinabsoluteterms,bothrooftopandutilityscalesegmentsgrewin2022.Marketsegmentswerebalanced,with48%ofnewcapacityonrooftops.Theshareoftherooftopsegmenthasbeengrowingcontinuouslysince2018asmarketsopeninnewcountriesanddecreasingcostsmakesitmoreaccessibleforresidentialandcommercialinvestors,withnotablevolumes(>2,5GW)andmarketsharesinChina,Brazil,andGermanyaswellasPolandandAustralia.

Onbothsegmentsnewapplicationsareingrowth;fromBIPVintherooftopsegmenttoutilityscalefloatingPV.

Stillmarginalbutgrowing,agrivoltaicprojectsandBIPVareasyethardtoquantify,asareVIPV/VAPV

3

volumes(PVintegratedinvehicles)althoughtheyareexpectedtodevelopwellinthecomingyears.

Technologicalevolutions,suchasbifacialPVwillalsoimpactthedevelopmentofthesenewmarketsegments.

GWp

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

FIGURE4:SEGMENTATIONOFPVINSTALLATION2013-2022

2013201420152016201720182019202020212022

ROOFTOPUTILITYSCALE

Source:IEAPVPS,BecquerelInstitute

3BIPV–BuildingIntegratedPV;VIPV–VehicleIntegratedPV;VAPV-VehicleIntegratedPV

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3CUMULATIVEINSTALLEDCAPACITYINTHEWORLD

In2022theglobalcumulativeinstalledcapacitypassedthesymbolic1TWmark,reachinganestimated1185GW,asshowninFigure5.Frontrunners-fromChinadowntoIndiaandthenGermany(67,2GW)haveatleast30GWmorethanthenextcountries.Theirpositionsareunlikelytobechallengedin2023or2024,notevenadoublingortriplingofBrazil’sdynamic2022market(9,9GW)wouldbesufficient.Braziljoinedthenextgroupofcountrieswithsmaller,similarcumulativecapacitiesofbetween20GWand30GW:Australia,Spain,Italy,KoreaandnowBrazil.

FIGURE5:GLOBALEVOLUTIONOFCUMULATIVEPVINSTALLATIONS

GWp

1,400

1185

1,200

1,000910

414.5

800767

210

622

511

600

407

142

304

400

85

228

177

79

20024

137

100

70

468142239

231

0

200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022OtherCountriesIEAPVPSCountriesIndiaJapanUSAEuropeanUnionChina

Source:IEAPVPS

4EVOLUTIONOFREGIONALPVINSTALLATIONS

Thedistributionofregionalmarketshareshasremainedsteadysince2018.AsiaPacifichascapturedthemajorsharewith64%ofthetotalcumulativeinstalledcapacityin2022

(seeFigure6),drivenbyChinawithstrongcontributionsfromIndia.Japaninstalledastable6,5GWwhilstmarketsinbothKorea(downto3,6GW)andAustralia(3,9GW)contractedslightly-supplychainchallengesandinvestmentlagsinAustraliashouldberesolvedin2023.SomesmallerestablishedAsianmarkets-TaiwanandMalaysia,alsoexperiencedgrowthin2022,whereothermarkets,suchasThailand,Singapore,IndonesiaandthePhilippineshaveseenonlysloworintermittentgrowthovertheyears.

IntheEuropeanUnion,Spaintooktheleadwith8,1GWafterfouryearssteadybetween4GWand5GWannually.Germanyfollowedcloselywith7,5GWafterafourthyearofover120%increasethenPoland(4,9GWinstalled)withasimilargrowthrate.TheNetherlands

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rankedfourthwith3,9GWinstalled.TheyarefollowedbyFrancewith2,9GWandItaly(2,5GW).Afurtherfivecountriesinstalledover1GW:Denmark(1,6GW),Greece(1,4GW),andAustriaandHungarybothat1GW.EuropeancountriesnotintheEUinstalledacombined3,4GWin2022,ledbyTurkey(1,6GW),Switzerland(850MW)andtheUK(555MW).NotablegrowthwasobservedinNorway(+300%relativeincrease),Italy(+163%relativeincrease),Sweden(+96%)andSlovenia(+98%relativeincrease).

GWp

1,400FIGURE6:EVOLUTIONOFREGIONALPVINSTALLATIONS

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

2001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022

EuropeAsiaPacificAfrica&MiddleEastRoWTheAmericas

Source:IEAPVPS

DespitetheUSmarket’sunderperformance(18,6GW,downfrom27GWin2021),theoverallAmericasmarketincreased,pulledbystronggrowthinBrazil(9,9GWinstalledin2022),followedbyChilewhichinstalledaround1,8GWandMexicowith680MW.ThemarketinCanadagrewataround449MWinstalledcapacityin2022.

IntheMiddleEastandAfrica,Israelinstalledanadditional1,2GW,asignificantincreasecomparedtothepreviousyear,followedbyQatar(0,8GW).AfricaandtheMiddleEastrepresentedaround3%ofglobalPVinstallationsin2022withoff-gridinstallationsgrowingrapidlyandrooftopPVoutsideofanyregulatoryschemeareprogressinginmanycountriesrapidly.

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Annualinstalledcapacity(GW)

Primary&

trusted

secondary

source

194.12

5LIMITSOFREPORTINGCONVENTIONS

FIGURE3:INSTALLEDVSSHIPPEDVOLUMES2022

AsthePVmarketgrowsconstantly,

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

TotalShipped-284Totalinstalled-240

ExpertGuess-19.78

Approximative

source-25.86

1SOURCE:IEAPVPS

reportingofPVinstallationsis

becomingmorecomplex.IEAPVPShas

decidedtocountallPVinstallations,both

grid-connectedandoff-grid,whennumbers

arereported,andtoestimatetheremaining

partonunreportedinstallations.For

countrieswithhistoricallysignificant

capacityandgoodreporting,aslowyet

growinggapbetweenshipped/imported

capacityandinstalledcapacitycanbe

attributedtoseveralfactorsincluding

conversionfactorsfromACtoDC,

repoweringanddecommissioning.The

extremelyfastpaceddevelopmentofmicrosystems(plug&playsystemswithonlyafewmodules),whilstnotsignificantinoverallvolumesissymptomaticofthedevelopmentofunreportedsystemsreachingthemarketandsometimesbeinginvisibletodistributionsystemoperatorsanddatacollection.

Othermarketevolutionssuchasoff-gridapplicationsaredifficulttotrackeveninmembercountries,andsignificantgrowthininstallationsinthirdcountrieswithoutarobustreportingsystemisalsoalikelysourceofunderreporting.Inlightofthis,reportingheretakesintoaccountreportedandexpertestimatesofnewcommissionedcapacityaswellasprobableunreportedvolumesinstalledinoneoftheabovecontexts.Dataonestimatedshippedcapacity,ininventories,hasbeenincorporatedinFigure3toimprovemarketvisibility.

5.1Decommissioning,RepoweringandRecycling

DatapublishedbyIEAPVPSreportsonnewannualinstalledcapacityandtotalcumulativeinstalledcapacityarebasedonofficialdatainreportingcountries.Dependingonreportingpractices,cumulativecapacity(thesumofnewannualcapacity)mayoutstripoperatingcapacityassystemsaredecommissioned.Repoweredcapacitiesreplacesomedecommissionedcapacitybutalsogenerallyincreaseoperationalcapacity,astherepoweredcapacityishigherthantheinitialplantcapacityduetoPVmoduleefficiencyimprovements.ThereisnostandardisedreportingonthesesubjectsacrossIEAPVPScountries.SeveralcountriesalreadyincorporatedecommissioningofPVplantsintheirtotalcapacitynumbersbyreducingthetotalcumulativenumber.Othercountriesreportcapacityinoperationforthatyear,anddonotincluderepoweredvolumesinnewannualcapacityordecommissionedvolumesinoperationalcapacity.Manycountriesdonottrackdecommissioningorrepoweringwithanyconsistency.

Repoweringisstillrelativelyunusualgiventheageoftheoldestinstallations,butitisexpectedtoincreaseinthenearfuture-serialdefectswithbacksheetsmanufacturedintheperiod2009–2011isagoodexample,asthepast2yearshaveseenafewhundredMWreplaced.Modulecapacitythathasbeenusedtorepowersystemswithdefectiveorunderperformingmoduleswillappearinshippedvolumesbutnotnecessarilyinnewannualinstallations.Realdecommissioningisexpectedtoberare,aslandusageconstraintsandcheaperPVonbuildingsencouragesrepowering.Recyclingnumberscanprovideaglimpse

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ofwhatishappeningwithregardstorepoweringanddecommissioningincountr