如何分析并作出正確的決策HowToAutomateSmAgendaWhatis"decisionmanagementtechnology"Whatkindsofdecisionsshouldnotbeautomated?Whatarerule-basedsystemsandwhyaretheyadvantageous?What'saremainthedifferencesbetweenBI,AnalyticsandDecisionManagement?Howaretheabovepractices/technologiesmeasured?2ExcessiveFocusonUnderstanding:

RearView,HistoricalPerspective3PerformanceManagementProvidesEmphasisonImprovementandAutomationofDecisionsAmethodologythatexaminesthepeople,process,informationandtechnologyandaprocessthatalignsbusinessandtechnologytoimproveresults.PerformanceManagementProcessUnderstand–Comprehendthestatusofpeople,organizationandbusinessprocesses.Optimize–Planforfutureactionsanddecisionsthatcanachievetheobjectivesandgoals.Align–Communicateandprovideguidance,objectives,goalsandincentives.VentanaResearchPerformanceCycle?PerformanceManagement4DecisionManagementImprovebusinessdecisionsthroughdesign,deploymentandrefinementofoperationaldecisionmakingproceduresDecisionManagementhelpsenterprisemakebetter,moreconsistentbusinessdecisionsMaximizerevenue,minimizecosts,streamlinebusinessprocessesViaWeb,OLTP,callcenter,andbatchapplicationsAgileevolutionofdecisionmakingtomeetnewbusinesschallengesGivedataanalysts,businesspolicymakers,

corporateportfoliomanagers,anditimplementers

toolstounderstandanduseeachothersinformationUseanalysisofthepasttomodifydecisionstrategies

inthepresenttocorrectlymanage

andguidefutureactivitiesWhatisIt?5DecisionManagementExlesCustomermanagementdecisionshowtohandleparticularrequestsforservices,howtotreatcustomersincollections,whethertoincreaseexposuretocurrentcustomersthroughadditionalcreditoffers,etc.Supplierselectiondecisionswhichsuppliertouseforagivenorderofpartsbasedoncost,pastdeliveryhistory,customerpreferences,etc.Advertiserselectiondecisionswhichadvertisershouldbeselectedforagivenadvertisementopportunitygivenexistingcontracts,typeofopportunity,recentlyshownads,etc.Auditselectiondecisionswhichtaxpayersshouldbeselectedforauditinggivenexperiencewithpreviousaudits,pastfilings,currentpolicies,etc.6ExaminingDecisionCyclesforAutomation1-Recognize

Threat/Opp.3-SetGoals/

Objectives2-Understand

Factors4-Devise

Solutions5-Compare

Solutions6-Decide

onActionPlan7-ExecuteActionPlan8-Review

ActionresultsInformation

AcquisitionGoal

SettingDecisionMakingAction

CoordinationAreasoffacilitationofthedecisionmakingprocessAutomated

Decision

SystemsTraditional

BIuse7DecisionManagementandAutomationAutomateddoesnotmeanlightsoutDecisionreviewsometimeoralwaysrequiredDecisionexceptionmanagementRulesenginemaintenanceandupdatesInputAutomated

DecisionsModels/RulesReviewsExceptions8ApplicationorUserrequestingadecisionDecisionManagementFrameworkDecisionManagementApplicationorInterfacePredictive

ModelsDevelopment

EnvironmentBusinessRuleEngineData

SourcesThirdPartyApplicationsorInterfacesRepository9BusinessRules–DecisionManagementRulesareconditionalstatementsofhowtorespondtodataoreventswithabusinesstransactionIfFerrariis$30,thenbuyquicklyBusinessrulestakemanyformsPolicies,practices,andproceduresyouusetomakeoperationaldecisionsStrategiesbasedonhistoricaldataandbusinessacumenDecisionTreesDecisionTablesRulescarryoutactionssuggestedbymodelingandoptimizationstrategiesBusinessrulesarefoundinyourcompanypolicymanuals,inlinesofcodeinlegacysystems,interdepartmentalmemos,andinthemindsofyourexperiencedemployees10BusinessRules–DecisionManagementRulesEnginesEvolutionofExpertsystemsTwostepprocessCreaterulesusingexpertsDeploytherulesetWhat’snewGraphicaldevelopmentandadministrationMatureruledevelopmentenvironmentsRobustplatformsIntegrationwithcomplimentarytechnologiesAccessibletobusinessmanagers/non-technologistsIndustryexperiencewithsuccessandfailure11PredictiveModeling–DecisionManagementPredictiveModelingAppliedstatisticsandotherdataminingapproachesRegression/NeuralNetworksClassification,Segmentation2stepprocessCreatethemodel,usethemodelWhat’snewImproved,graphicaluserinterfacesAutomationofmodelcreationIntegrationwithrulesenginesIndustryexperiencewithsuccessandfailure12DecisionManagement-MaturityCurveBusinessRules

AutomationLeveragedExpertise

AutomatedDecisions

NoOptimizationDecisionRefinementLeveragedExpertise

AutomatedDecisions

ManualTuningAdaptiveControlAutomatedaccess

AutomatedprocessingDecisionTesting

ManualTuningPredictiveModelingAutomatedaccess

AutomatedprocessingDecisionTesting

PredictiveModelsManual

analysisManualdecisionsDecisionOptimizationAutomatedaccess

AutomatedprocessingRoutedDecisions

PredictiveModelsManual

analysisManualdecisions13DecisionManagementApplicationNeedsE-Commercenowadrivingfactorinreal-timetransactions$80Bannualrunrate(Q4CY2004)(USCensusBureau)+29%fromQ3CY20042%oftotalUSsalesRetailingMerchantSurveyAmongTop5keysellingtoolsCross-sell/Up-sell,Promotions,Sales/SpecialsCommerceFraud2004On-linecommercefraudlosses$2.6B(CyberSourcesurvey)2004On-linelossesgrowth25%-30%growthexpectedManualreviewincreasedSpeedofe-commerceInteractivetransactionratesnow10-20secondsforleadingsites(Keynote)Skillsandturnoverofworkforce10%-30%turnover(CallCenterMgmtReview)14BestPracticesinIdentificationof

DecisionManagementHighdecisionvolumeManualoversightisnottechnicallyoreconomicallyfeasible.PotentialforrespectivecostsavingsorincrementalrevenueInconsistentworkforcedecisionskillsHighemployeeturnoverLowpositioncompensationNeedforself-serviceBusinessdemandapresenceonthewebServicesrequireinstantdecisionmakingonpricing,packaging,deliveryandotherfacets.Web-sitevisitorsexpectinstantresponse.PastindicatesthefutureDecisioninput/outcomerelationshipcanbemeasuredandmodeledDecisionsconsistentovertimeInternetisakeybusinessenablerCustomers,andemployeesexpectfast,high-valueinteractionsComparableperformance,personalizationandaccommodationareacriticalsuccessfactorforyourbusiness.15ConvergingTechnologiesfromBusinessIntelligencetoDecisionManagementTools&ApplicationsMonitoring&AlertingPlatformandServerTechnologyDashboard&ScorecardInformationManagement&MasterDataMgtAnalytics&LocationReporting&VisualizationIntegrationManagement(Application,Data&Info.)1995-2004Query&AnalysisPlatformsReportingModeling&AnalyticsRules&WorkflowMasterDataManagement2006-Rules&WorkflowDataMining&Modeling16Business

UnderstandingDecisionManagementEnables

PerformanceManagementPerformance

ManagementShrinking

ResponseTimeInconsistentDecisionMakingLimited

Decision

CompetenceDecision

RiskDecisionMgtBenefitsEncodedDecisionProcessImproved

ROIFacilitated

DecisionsAut